Taiwan straits

General_Zhaoyun · 03-31-2004, 09:14 AM

If war broke out between China and Taiwan, and suppose US come to help protect Taiwan..what would be the outcome?

How would China attack Taiwan? How would US-Taiwan alliance protect against such invasion?

**Officer of Engineers** · 03-31-2004, 11:10 AM

Alot of conjectures and alot of what ifs.

The best evidence we have is that the PLA aims to destroy one of three RoCA corps.

6th Army - Northern Taiwan - OPOBJ - Taipei City
10th Army - Central Taiwan - OPOBJ - divide TW in half
8th Army - Southern Taiwan - OPOBJ - Industrial heartland

The PLAN's job is to delay the US entry into the war until the ground action has been decided. In War Zone Campaign terms - 30 days.

The RoCA's job - to destroy the PLA invasion forces on the beaches.
The USN's job - to destroy the PLA invasion forces in the ML ports, even after the invasion have begun.

smilingassassin · 03-31-2004, 19:23 PM

How would China delay the entry of the U.S. into the war? What role would U.S. troops already stationed there play in a Chinese invasion senario?

**Officer of Engineers** · 03-31-2004, 19:34 PM

According to PLA publications, their course of actions is to make the US think twice - ie make an IMPLICIT but NOT an explicit nuclear threat, C4ISR attacks (ie the famous computer viruses, homefront disruptions, etc), and finally to send out their subfleet as the sacraficial lamp for the USN. For every hour, the USN is busy hunting/sinking Chinese subs, they cannot (at least according to Chinese thinking) help the Taiwanese.

There are no American troops stationed in Taiwan.

Praxus · 03-31-2004, 20:09 PM

Would their subs in reality stop us or limit us to a degree from attacking the PLAN?

smilingassassin · 03-31-2004, 20:18 PM

Whoops I was thinking South Korea when I stated troops in Taiwan.......DOH!!!!!

ChrisF202 · 03-31-2004, 21:50 PM

Well, we have troops in Japan and the ones in South Korea, I would imagine we would send them, but then we have to worry about Kim taking advantage. And also, the US has a fleet in between China and Taiwan with Aegis, so if China wants to lose 160 planes in a matter of seconds they can try and invade Taiwan. If China can get a beach head, then things will get harder, as US/Taiwanese firepower and Chinese manpower kick in.

**Officer of Engineers** · 04-01-2004, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Praxus
Would their subs in reality stop us or limit us to a degree from attacking the PLAN?

Depends on who gets to stations first. The PLAN never really have a hope of stopping the USN. Their OPOBJ is to slow them down. If the PLAN manages to get their subs to stations first, then the USN would have to at least spend a couple of days sinking them before they start their ops against the invasion force.

Quote:

Originally posted by ChrisF202
Well, we have troops in Japan and the ones in South Korea, I would imagine we would send them, but then we have to worry about Kim taking advantage. And also, the US has a fleet in between China and Taiwan with Aegis, so if China wants to lose 160 planes in a matter of seconds they can try and invade Taiwan. If China can get a beach head, then things will get harder, as US/Taiwanese firepower and Chinese manpower kick in.

I cannot see any American ground participation. The PLA's OPOBJ is all political, not military. The military position cannot be sustained. Even if they managed their OPOBJs, all they have is one exhausted corps when the RoCA still have two fresh corps to throw into the fight. What the PLA can do is to force negotiation or Taiwan cease to exist as a nation either politically (northern Taiwan, ie Taipei ceases to be the capital centre), militarily (the PLA manages to divide TW by cutting the island in half), or economically (the PLA destroys TW's industrial heartland) but ONLY ONE of the three. The PLA assumes TW would come to negotiation (which the Americans would be hardpressed to politically interfere) for an acceptable solution.

**Officer of Engineers** · 04-01-2004, 01:57 AM

I will have to qualify myself here.

The PLA officially does not present their invasion plans. What they have been doing is presenting their Defence White Paper, the Doctrinal Development, and their exercises.

My views is that of a Canadian Forces Officer who reads Chinese and trying to piece all the little bits and pieces together vis-a-vi Taiwan. It is by no means an official Chinese position, just what I and several other China watchers (including American Colonels Ken Allen and Denis Blasko) have been debating upon to come up with these views.

I (We) could very well be wrong but I can provide the evidence to support our conclusions for those who wish to examine them.

03-31-2004, 09:14 AM	#1 (permalink)
General_Zhaoyun New Member Join Date: 03-31-04 Posts: 7	Taiwan straits If war broke out between China and Taiwan, and suppose US come to help protect Taiwan..what would be the outcome? How would China attack Taiwan? How would US-Taiwan alliance protect against such invasion? __________________ Founder of History Forum Simaqian Studio at http://www.simaqianstudio.com . History Forum Simaqian Studio is an online community for world history discussion

03-31-2004, 11:10 AM	#2 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 17,067 Country:	Alot of conjectures and alot of what ifs. The best evidence we have is that the PLA aims to destroy one of three RoCA corps. 6th Army - Northern Taiwan - OPOBJ - Taipei City 10th Army - Central Taiwan - OPOBJ - divide TW in half 8th Army - Southern Taiwan - OPOBJ - Industrial heartland The PLAN's job is to delay the US entry into the war until the ground action has been decided. In War Zone Campaign terms - 30 days. The RoCA's job - to destroy the PLA invasion forces on the beaches. The USN's job - to destroy the PLA invasion forces in the ML ports, even after the invasion have begun. __________________ Chimo

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03-31-2004, 19:23 PM	#3 (permalink)
smilingassassin *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-12-03 Location: Vancouver Canada Posts: 2,750 Country:	How would China delay the entry of the U.S. into the war? What role would U.S. troops already stationed there play in a Chinese invasion senario?

03-31-2004, 19:34 PM	#4 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 17,067 Country:	According to PLA publications, their course of actions is to make the US think twice - ie make an IMPLICIT but NOT an explicit nuclear threat, C4ISR attacks (ie the famous computer viruses, homefront disruptions, etc), and finally to send out their subfleet as the sacraficial lamp for the USN. For every hour, the USN is busy hunting/sinking Chinese subs, they cannot (at least according to Chinese thinking) help the Taiwanese. There are no American troops stationed in Taiwan.

03-31-2004, 20:09 PM	#5 (permalink)
Praxus *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 08-26-03 Posts: 3,237	Would their subs in reality stop us or limit us to a degree from attacking the PLAN?

03-31-2004, 20:18 PM	#6 (permalink)
smilingassassin *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-12-03 Location: Vancouver Canada Posts: 2,750 Country:	Whoops I was thinking South Korea when I stated troops in Taiwan.......DOH!!!!!

03-31-2004, 21:50 PM	#7 (permalink)
ChrisF202 *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 08-12-03 Location: Long Island, New York, USA Posts: 2,603 Country:	Well, we have troops in Japan and the ones in South Korea, I would imagine we would send them, but then we have to worry about Kim taking advantage. And also, the US has a fleet in between China and Taiwan with Aegis, so if China wants to lose 160 planes in a matter of seconds they can try and invade Taiwan. If China can get a beach head, then things will get harder, as US/Taiwanese firepower and Chinese manpower kick in.

04-01-2004, 01:57 AM	#9 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 17,067 Country:	I will have to qualify myself here. The PLA officially does not present their invasion plans. What they have been doing is presenting their Defence White Paper, the Doctrinal Development, and their exercises. My views is that of a Canadian Forces Officer who reads Chinese and trying to piece all the little bits and pieces together vis-a-vi Taiwan. It is by no means an official Chinese position, just what I and several other China watchers (including American Colonels Ken Allen and Denis Blasko) have been debating upon to come up with these views. I (We) could very well be wrong but I can provide the evidence to support our conclusions for those who wish to examine them.

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