zraver

After 1989 it was 3rd, by 99 it was 4th and sinking lower lower



Yes, but his successors haven't followed them as closely as they should have. They have how you say- put the cart before the horse.

China still lacks the naval and air assets to make use of the bases. They moved before the PLAN could make use of the bases and tipped the Indians off.

Blademaster

And the conflict was largely confined to Yugoslavia. It didn't spill out to Germany, Italy, or other great powers. In the case of Pakistan, it won't spill out into Rajasthan, Punjab, or Gujarat (states of India) because the borders are tightly patrolled and closed off from the people of Pakistan. The only porous border is Kashmir and the insurgents pretty much hit the ceiling during the late 90s and couldn't ramp it any more higher.

Officer of Engineers

Z,

At 1989, 75% of the PLAAF was the MiG-19 or its variant.

I'm trying to point out the strategic thinking as suggested by the article. The Chinese have a safe harbour without investing in the military resources to create one. Whether it is successful or not is not my point but rather pointing out to you how different the Chinese think strategically.

__________________
Chimo

Officer of Engineers

Oh yeah, they did and big time - the Kosovo War and as things have shown, we're going to have another one.

I'm not talking about the fighting. I'm talking about the refugees. India has its own "Mexico" problem with Bangladesh. Can you imagine another "Mexico" with Pakistan?

Blademaster

We got involved in Kosovo War because Al But Bright got duped by the KLA and Bill Clinton wanted to establish a legacy if any. If it wasn't for America, Kosovo War would never happen and we wouldn't be facing this kind of problem. Another Wilsonque ****up.

Officer of Engineers

The sad fact was that we were sooner or later would have to go into Kosovo. It was a hell of alot cheaper to keep the people of Kosovo in Kosovo than in Germany, Italy, France, and Turkey.

Those of us in UNPROFOR saw this coming.

Blademaster

Those people in Kosovo actually belonged to Albania. They could have gone back to Albania and the Serbs did exactly do that by rounding them up and busing them to the Albania border. But the powers be told Serbia they couldn't do that and the Serbs had to take them back.

Officer of Engineers

They were of Albanian decent but were borned in Kosovo. No, the Serbs did not round them up and bus them to the border. They told the Albanians to get out before occupying/destroying their homes, denying the KLA a base ... and winter was coming.

Even during the Kosovo War when the mass expulsion finally occurred, it was a forced march. Another 60 days and we would've seen 100,000 frozen bodies.

Blademaster

Ahh I see. My mistake, then. By the way, we need to get back to the topic. We somehow hijacked this thread.

Inst

Zraver, first, I have problems myself with Chinese policy. Deng XiaopIng's (邓小平, given name, oddly, is small + peace or tranquility) admonition was to, paraphrased, bide their time and hide their capabilities. This calling of attention and emphasizing its power is somewhat odd. The man himself was supposed to have fallen into a coma around 1992; the trip to the south was one of his last actions in his waking life. I wonder what he would have thought about General Xiong "not willing to trade LA for Taiwan, if the Americans reach the target field, I'm afraid we'll have to use nuclear weapons". That's a perfectly understandable internal planning, as I've argued, part of China's historical ability to punch above it's weight; use will to compensate for weakness. However, to declare it openly and across public channels does China's image no good.

Two things I think you've missed are multipolarity and long-term thinking. The Chinese expect, first, that the world will devolve into a multipolar world. The strategic thinking in that case is different from that of a bipolar world; if you lose 1000 men, and your opponent loses 1000 men, you're not winning. Your position vis-a-vis all the other powers have degraded; you've gone through the opportunity costs of a war and have nothing to show for it. In a multipolar world, the harming your rival is not the best strategy, improving your own strength is the best strategy. If you increase your military spending by $1 billion, and your immediate rival has done the same, you have gained advantage, as while the balance of power between yourself and your rival has remained constant, the balance of power between yourself and the rest of the world has tipped slightly in your favor. This is why China believes the objective of its national and international policy should be to increase comprehensive power.

Further, according to Michael Pillsbury, China believes the present age is akin to the Chinese Warring States period, which ended in the conquest by Qin of the other states. One factor was, many states had achieved international hegemony, but were too early in doing so. By exerting their strength first for the position and then to keep the position, these hegemons destroyed their domestic and diplomatic strengths. So a push at hegemony should not be immediately made, not even when the position can be considered moderately superior. Qin's conquest of the Chinese states occured after all of these states

Inst

exhausted themselves in over a hundred years of warfare. By the time the invasion was started, the war was already over. While the initial army could have been stopped by the combined international powers, it would have been a tiring event; as long as the battle was not a complete rout, Qin would have gained advantage.

That's my problem with your perception. It looks to the short-term, and is based on a bipolar or unipolar world view. The goal of your hypothetical government planner is to replace the United States as the pre-eminent world power. But being #1 for the sake of being #1, what good is it? Militarily speaking, budgets have to rise. The United States spends 4 percent of its GDP on its military, while nations under its aegis spends between 2 and 4 percent. By being the leader of the international system, you become accountable for its flaws. 9-11 happened first, terrorist attacks in Europe happened because of their support of the United States. And look at the example of the Soviet Union. It was a superpower through the virtue of its military, not through the virtue of its economy, culture, or technology. To maintain its status, its people endured famines, long lines for consumer goods. We spent them to death.

zraver

Re-read what I wrote I do not have China making a bid for global hegemony, rather Asian Hegemony. China will not in the long term comfortably abide an Asian system that places Japan as a co-equal after the Americans eventually go home. There is simply to much history to forgive when the Japanese haven't even asked for forgiveness in the first place. And thats before economic competition and resource supplies, in this context making statements and taking actions that benefit Japan and reduce China's freedom of action by keeping the US in the area, US arms flowing to Japan, US influence in the area and keeping the Chinese out of the western arms markets as a buyer make zero sense long or short term.

If China's goal is to keep the US in the area it is better to do it as an ally, where Washington works on behalf of China than in an adversarial role where Washington works on behalf Tokyo, New Delhi and Taipei.

Great and very sage advice- that seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Going back to your warring states anology. The current CCP/PLA leadership are acting like the states the Qin eventually subjugated, not acting like the Qin. They are beating thier chests and posturing like an angry silverback fearsome looking but ultimately still just a beast not located at the top of the food chain. And yet again- what has that accomplished?

The US is stronger than ever in Asia without concluding a single new major alliance outside of Pakistan. The US is friends with just about every major player in the area greatly reducing China's freedom of action without doing anything aggressive. Even if every one of the nations simply refuses to get involved China is still forced to take on the US without allies- US win. China talks about the string of pearls around India, but what of the string around China? South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

If Chinese leaders had simply walked small and played meek over the last 20 years overall China would be in a much better position to assert itself now then it currently is.

Officer of Engineers

The one thing wrong with your thesis here is that the rest of Asia has not forgiven Japan either. The US will not go home if for any other reason than to prevent a war between Korea and Japan. Korean hatre of the Japanese surpasses that of the Chinese.

China and the US will never be allies, just as India and the US also will never be allies. The trust is not there. At best, India will occupy the same position China held during the Cold War but will never agree to American participation nor leadership in her sphere of influence ... and China knows this.

A question for you. We're seeing the end of DXP's momentum. How much further do you expect to see it? Though you are not a China watcher, your impressions of an informed man do give an appraisal of how much more of DXP's legacy that we can expect from China.

Exactly why we're seeing the end of the DXP era. Current Chinese leaders do not have his confidence and frankly his balls. He dared the USSR to attack. The current Chinese leaders have to deliver their promises, unlike Deng who promised nothing but dragged China from the 19th Century into the 20th Century and then kicked her butt into the 21st.

zraver

Unlike China Korea does not have an alternative route to market except to go past Japan, or pending unification and current defense issues to the North. I don't think South Korea will go to war willingly against Japan until Kim is 10 years dead.

China and India have both been allies in the past- it just takes the right enemy.

I don't agree with your read of the situation. India is actively courting the US because trust or not the offset vs China and the money makes an allaince attractive. Plus the massive Indian migration to the US is building increasing ties.



I think it depends on what part of his legacy your talking. Economically- several more years until enough scandals and currency/environmental pressures cause the CCP to blink. Vis a vis Taiwan and the US- just until Taiwan makes a bid for statehood. As long as both Chinas enjoy economic prosperity I think it will hold. If one or the other suffers a serious down turn then things get dicey if politicians start looking for an external scapegoat.

Militarily- its been dead for several years. As soon as the nuke espionage scandal surfaced the writing was on the walls. Since then China has taken several deliberate steps to place it self in opposition to the US. It's made the internet fan boys and homegrown nationalist happy but is a strategic mistake IMHO.

Tronic

Zrav, what is this in reference to? As far as I know, China and India have always been at war footing or in hostility mode with each other. Even during the Indo-Chin bhai bhai (India-China brother-brother) years; China and India were at odds with each other as India supported Tibet over China and even gave sanctuary to the Dalai Lama and all Tibetans fleeing Tibet after the Chinese invasion.

zrav, Indian political situation cannot allow an Indo-US alliance in the Indian sphere. I mean, one can look at the Indo-US Nuclear deal for an example. The Congress government is in a position that if it goes ahead with the deal, its communist allies pull out of the coalition and it topples the government, hence, new elections. If, it rejects the deal, then although it stays in power, it looses huge support and credibility in the next election and on the international front. So, they just stall the deal hoping that when the US administration changes, the new US administration itself cancels the deal. Indian politics is quite pathetic, which almost every Indian is sick of.

__________________
Nabha Sparasham Deeptam
-Touch The Sky With Glory