Officer of Engineers

It was an open secret that Chinese troops were already in North Vietnam. PLAAF ground based air defences were protecting Hanoi and Chinese engineers built a large portion of the Ho Chi Minh trail.

Was it a bluff? Maybe but Chinese troops were already manning the lines.

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Chimo

xerxes

^^

but that would in line of Chinese involvment in north korea prior to Thanksgiving offensive ... but would the PRC launched a major offensive by their "volountear army" had the US forces crossed into the North and topple the Hanoi government?

For some reason I dont think they wanted a second Korean War. The nuclear teeth of the paper-tiger was greatly feared and China was amidst its revolutions farcry from its energetic days of Korean War when the PRC was only one year old.

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If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

Officer of Engineers

From the historic records, Mao had no intention of intervening against the Americans but then, he was also a mad man who launched the Great Leaps Forward and the Great Proliteriate Cultural Revolution. So, we don't know if he would have actually got himself involved except that there were Chinese troops already in Vietnam.

About the only thing I can say is that this time around, the Americans would have wiped any Chinese Army off the face of the earth.

xerxes

I will meditate on this phrase ^^^ and give you an answer by tomorrow ....

Officer of Engineers

Look up the 1979 1st Sino-Vietnam War.

xerxes

I actually answered your view on that war in this thread

The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere

though I agree that a Chinese massive invasion of North Vietnam in response to US crossing the North Vietnam border, would have spiked considerable sense of nationalism among Vietnamese against Chinese

Officer of Engineers

Sorry,

I didn't see that post until you pointed it out to me. But you missed my point here. The strategic, operational, and tactical blunderings that characterized that 79 war when pitted an American war machine such as the one that was in Vietnam would have meant no Chinese army would have walked home.

Also

The point here is not that the PLA is weak because of the 1st Sino-VN War. They've improved considerably to the point that they've won the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War but that the PLA is checked by some very good armies. The PLA is not going to march to Hanoi even if she wanted to.

xerxes

very much agreed ... i see your point

I have to read about the 2nd sino-vietnamese war ... but incase of Chinese military march to Hanoi I will give more credit to the battleharden Vietnamese and less credit to flaws of PLA

Bigfella

The shadow of America's involvment in Korea hung long over Vietnam. Korea was, by its conclusion, very unpopular with the American public. No American President wanted America to be dragged into another land war in Asia.

The evidence on China's intentions is inconclusive. Further research will no doubt clarify the issue in future years, but even then it is simply impossible to know how China might have responded to a large American army appearing on another border only a dozen or so years after Korea.

China certainly spent the mid-60s constructing military infrastructure (airfields, bases, rail lines) in the south. If the PLAAF didn't engage the USAF directly, it certainly assisted the Vietnamese in doing so. There were also several hundred thousand Chinese regulars who served in Vietnam during the war, though none in combat roles (except perhaps some AA units & unit advisors).

What is important here is: did America have good reason to believe China might intervene? The answer is Yes. That America would have beaten the DRV & PLA is not relevant. That victory would have come at a very heavy price. Keep in mind that even before the Tet Offensive, with less than 30,000 US dead, opposition to the war was already in the 40% range & rising steadily.

Even without Chinese intervention, invading the North would have cost tens of thousands of US lives. Throw in China and the figures just keep going up. Worse, China could just keep funnelling irregulars over the border in their thousands almost indefinately. Once Mao had used the Red Guards to regain power they became a bit of an embarrassment. Why not give them a bit of training, arm them & send them to die in Vietnam? No match for US troops, but capable of doing enough damage to make the war VERY unpopular at home.

And for what? America's Vietnamese allies couldn't even govern the South, where they had most support. If you think the VC & DRV fought hard in the South, imagine how much harder they would have fought in an area with much more support, and where they had already beaten the French? US dead & wounded would have been vastly higher, and the war much less popular much more quickly. US Administrations knew this. Invading the North was never an option.

GVChamp

A question of my own: The ARVN was pretty friggin big when we left, no? How the heck did it get ****stomped so gosh darn quickly?

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"The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

wabpilot

Logistics. The North had uninterupted supply lines. The US Congress would not authorize money to supply South Viet Nam. Nor, would they allow the President to use force to cut the North's supply lines. In short, the US Congress permitted gross violations of the very peace accords they so ardently sought. Treachery of the most rancid sort. The Democrats will never outlive that stain on their reputation.

GVChamp

If the US had decided to provide a limited support role, what would we have done? Just fly over weapons and bomb the NVA with B-52s?

Shek

We had disrupted the Ho Chi Minh Trail with the B52 raids. Once these stopped, NVN was able to make it a super highway and in fact, built POL pipelines into SVN for the 1975 offensive.

Likewise, without the prospect of American support, there wasn't an assurance of back up to stiffen resolve. This made the retreat in the Central Highlands turn into a rout and finally a pursuit.

Aid, advisors, and CAS would have made a difference and definitely extended some life to SVN. Whether it would have been sufficient in the end, or have allowed enough breathing space to create an effective and self-sustaining SVN, it's easy to argue that it wouldn't have.

The above is lacking quite a few details, but it does get you towards the conclusion, which I think is valid.

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"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

wabpilot

Rolling Thunder III, or better yet, Instant Thunder. If we had resumed mining Hai Phong Harbor, interdicting the Ho Chi Min Trail and hitting selected bridges around Hanoi, the ARVN would have had a fighting chance. Also, we would have had to commit to providing the logistical support the South needed. We did not and the result is entirely predictable.