Turkey turning cool to NATO

Ray · 09-07-2006, 17:51 PM

Quote:

Turkey turning cool to NATO

By Judy Dempsey International Herald Tribune

Published: September 6, 2006
BERLIN Turkey, a secular Muslim country that was once a fervent supporter of NATO and an enthusiastic applicant to the European Union, has increasingly cooled toward its American and European allies while warming toward Iran, a new international survey confirms.

Transatlantic Trends, an annual survey of European and American public opinion published Wednesday by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, shows a striking shift in attitudes within Turkey, a key member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Turkey is of major strategic importance for NATO. During the Cold War, it was the West's most important southern security flank in Europe, as well as a bulwark against the Soviet Union.

Now, with growing instability in its immediate neighborhood, including the Caucasus, the uncertainty over Iran's nuclear intentions and the sectarian fighting in Iraq, Turkey remains a crucial member of the 26-member alliance.

At the same time of declining support from Turkey, support for NATO has dropped sharply among Europeans, particularly in countries once considered the staunchest supporters of the defense organization: Germany, Italy and Poland, as well as Turkey.

These two trends - changing attitudes among Turks and declining support for NATO - have accelerated since the terrorist attacks on the United States five years ago and the subsequent U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Over all, the survey report said, "five years after Sept. 11, 2001, the image of the United States in the eyes of the world has not recovered from its steep decline after the war in Iraq."

Daniel Fried, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs, countered that the report also showed how the United States and Europe shared a common assessment about the threats they faced.

"Political differences do exist and they may be a byproduct of the debate about Iraq," said Fried, who was in Berlin for the publication of the report. "Despite that, the U.S. and Europe have a very firm basis on which to agree."

This seemed to be the case regarding the dispute with Iran over its nuclear program. Large majorities of Europeans (84 percent) and Americans (79 percent) feel that the dispute should be resolved via diplomacy, the survey found. If diplomacy failed, however, 53 percent of Americans and 45 percent of Europeans would support military action to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.

In Turkey, the survey found that on a 100-point "thermometer" scale, Turkish "warmth" toward the United States declined to 20 degrees from 28 degrees from 2004 to 2006, while Turkish warmth toward Iran increased to 43 degrees from 34 over the same period.

Warmth toward the EU was 45 degrees, down from 52 two years ago. Warm feelings were far lower toward certain European countries, with 31 degrees for Spain, 30 for Italy, and 25 for Britain and France, apparently because they are perceived as anti-Turkish. Germany, with many residents of Turkish descent, registered 44 degrees.

Further, while a majority in Turkey continue to see EU membership as a good thing, positive feelings have plummeted, from 73 percent in 2004 to 54 percent this year.

The poll found that support for NATO, the U.S.-led military alliance that has been the linchpin of the trans- Atlantic relationship for more than half a century, has fallen in the European countries surveyed from 69 percent in 2002 to 55 percent in 2006.

The drop was steepest in Germany, with support falling from 74 percent to 56 percent over the four years. In 2003, Germany, along with France, Belgium, and Luxembourg, opposed a U.S. request for NATO to provide support during the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Even more revealing are the findings for Poland, which in 1999 became one of the first former Warsaw Pact countries to join the alliance and which almost immediately supported the U.S decision to invade Iraq and send troops. Support among Poles for NATO plummeted from 64 percent in 2002 to 48 percent in 2006.

"NATO is no longer seen as providing a security umbrella, which it used to do during the Cold War," said Kai-Olaf Lang, an expert on Poland at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

As support for NATO declines, a majority of Europeans, 55 percent, say they want a more independent approach to security and diplomatic affairs, up from 50 percent in 2004. There is also strong support - 65 percent - for an EU foreign minister.

In Turkey, which joined NATO in 1952, support declined from 53 percent in 2004 to 44 percent in 2006.

Analysts say Turkey's growing disenchantment stems from the months leading up to the war against Iraq. Turkey asked NATO to provide support in case of an attack by Iraq, but several NATO countries refused.

Fried conceded that Turkey's relations with NATO had "soured in 2003," but asked how deep the trend was.

At present, NATO is increasingly preoccupied with its future role in fighting terrorism while remaining a collective defense alliance. These issues will dominate a NATO summit meeting in Riga, the Latvian capital, in November.

The annual poll, was carried out in the United States and 12 European countries: Britain, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Turkey. About 1,000 people were surveyed in each country between June 6 and 24. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

BERLIN Turkey, a secular Muslim country that was once a fervent supporter of NATO and an enthusiastic applicant to the European Union, has increasingly cooled toward its American and European allies while warming toward Iran, a new international survey confirms.

Transatlantic Trends, an annual survey of European and American public opinion published Wednesday by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, shows a striking shift in attitudes within Turkey, a key member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Turkey is of major strategic importance for NATO. During the Cold War, it was the West's most important southern security flank in Europe, as well as a bulwark against the Soviet Union.

Now, with growing instability in its immediate neighborhood, including the Caucasus, the uncertainty over Iran's nuclear intentions and the sectarian fighting in Iraq, Turkey remains a crucial member of the 26-member alliance.

At the same time of declining support from Turkey, support for NATO has dropped sharply among Europeans, particularly in countries once considered the staunchest supporters of the defense organization: Germany, Italy and Poland, as well as Turkey.

These two trends - changing attitudes among Turks and declining support for NATO - have accelerated since the terrorist attacks on the United States five years ago and the subsequent U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Over all, the survey report said, "five years after Sept. 11, 2001, the image of the United States in the eyes of the world has not recovered from its steep decline after the war in Iraq."

Daniel Fried, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs, countered that the report also showed how the United States and Europe shared a common assessment about the threats they faced.

"Political differences do exist and they may be a byproduct of the debate about Iraq," said Fried, who was in Berlin for the publication of the report. "Despite that, the U.S. and Europe have a very firm basis on which to agree."

This seemed to be the case regarding the dispute with Iran over its nuclear program. Large majorities of Europeans (84 percent) and Americans (79 percent) feel that the dispute should be resolved via diplomacy, the survey found. If diplomacy failed, however, 53 percent of Americans and 45 percent of Europeans would support military action to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.

In Turkey, the survey found that on a 100-point "thermometer" scale, Turkish "warmth" toward the United States declined to 20 degrees from 28 degrees from 2004 to 2006, while Turkish warmth toward Iran increased to 43 degrees from 34 over the same period.

Warmth toward the EU was 45 degrees, down from 52 two years ago. Warm feelings were far lower toward certain European countries, with 31 degrees for Spain, 30 for Italy, and 25 for Britain and France, apparently because they are perceived as anti-Turkish. Germany, with many residents of Turkish descent, registered 44 degrees.

Further, while a majority in Turkey continue to see EU membership as a good thing, positive feelings have plummeted, from 73 percent in 2004 to 54 percent this year.

The poll found that support for NATO, the U.S.-led military alliance that has been the linchpin of the trans- Atlantic relationship for more than half a century, has fallen in the European countries surveyed from 69 percent in 2002 to 55 percent in 2006.

The drop was steepest in Germany, with support falling from 74 percent to 56 percent over the four years. In 2003, Germany, along with France, Belgium, and Luxembourg, opposed a U.S. request for NATO to provide support during the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Even more revealing are the findings for Poland, which in 1999 became one of the first former Warsaw Pact countries to join the alliance and which almost immediately supported the U.S decision to invade Iraq and send troops. Support among Poles for NATO plummeted from 64 percent in 2002 to 48 percent in 2006.

"NATO is no longer seen as providing a security umbrella, which it used to do during the Cold War," said Kai-Olaf Lang, an expert on Poland at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

As support for NATO declines, a majority of Europeans, 55 percent, say they want a more independent approach to security and diplomatic affairs, up from 50 percent in 2004. There is also strong support - 65 percent - for an EU foreign minister.

In Turkey, which joined NATO in 1952, support declined from 53 percent in 2004 to 44 percent in 2006.

Analysts say Turkey's growing disenchantment stems from the months leading up to the war against Iraq. Turkey asked NATO to provide support in case of an attack by Iraq, but several NATO countries refused.

Fried conceded that Turkey's relations with NATO had "soured in 2003," but asked how deep the trend was.

At present, NATO is increasingly preoccupied with its future role in fighting terrorism while remaining a collective defense alliance. These issues will dominate a NATO summit meeting in Riga, the Latvian capital, in November.

The annual poll, was carried out in the United States and 12 European countries: Britain, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Turkey. About 1,000 people were surveyed in each country between June 6 and 24. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/06/news/poll.php

I have purposely put this thread here since NATO members do visit this corner to check up some professionally stuff.

I would sure love to hear comments from all, especially those who have served or are serving in the NATO.

**Officer of Engineers** · 09-07-2006, 22:34 PM

I cannot see Turkey leaving NATO, Sir. As bad as things are, it is still a Big Boys Club and Turkey wants to be seen as a Big Boy.

Ray · 09-08-2006, 09:04 AM

How far do you think that Turkey is a bit browned off because of the hassles in getting admission in the EU as also the influence of resurgent Islam?

-{SpoonmaN}- · 09-08-2006, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

How far do you think that Turkey is a bit browned off because of the hassles in getting admission in the EU as also the influence of resurgent Islam?

Well I'd imagine it must be bugging them a lot. Undoubtedly a lot of people in Turkey would be seeing those hassles as being more about religion and ethnicity rather than human rights or governmental reforms. And I guess to a some Europeans those are compelling reasons not to allow Turkey membership, ever, which is a really bad idea since I believe they'd have a lot to contribute to the EU's strategic and military power if they could get over the human rights issues. Although, as has been pointed out on this board, a lot of Europeans countries violate free speech rules by jailing holocost denying writers. And then there's Eastern Europe. So I can figure on Turkish public opinion swinging against Europe and America but I wouldn't make too much of it, Turkey has far too much to gain from being a friend and not an enemy. And I don't see what any country without an energy consumption issue would have to gain from being friends with Iran, they just happen to be doing nicely in the public relations field after they helped Hezbollah 'beat' Israel, and with their bluster about standing up to the Americans.

Ray · 09-08-2006, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Spurned by the West, Turkey looks eastward

Suat Kiniklioglu International Herald Tribune

Published: September 7, 2006

ANKARA In 2002, when Tuncer Kilinc, the secretary general of Turkey's powerful National Security Council, said that the country should abandon its efforts to become a member of the European Union and turn toward its regional neighbors Russia and Iran, few Turks took him seriously.

Four years later, Kilinc's proposition does not look so far-fetched. According to the Transatlantic Trends 2006 survey co-sponsored by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Turks feel twice as warm toward Iran as they do toward the United States. Equally, Turkish feelings toward the EU have experienced sharp declines.

So what has happened in the last four years to precipitate such a dramatic turnaround in Turkish public perceptions? After all, Iran is a Shiite country that is run by Islamic law and has little in common with Turkey's predominantly Sunni democracy.

The primary reason behind the sea- change is the post-9/11, "with-us-or- against-us" environment and the trauma inflicted on Turkey by the war in Iraq. In addition, the global rise of identity politics, most aptly signified by the Danish cartoon crisis and increasing instability around Turkey's borders, have shaken traditionally secular Turks.

The United States invaded Iraq despite strong Turkish opposition at a time when Turkey was about to win the peace with its Kurdish citizens. Then the Turkish Parliament refused to grant the United States the right to invade Iraq from the north, which left bad feelings at the Pentagon.

As events have confirmed Turkey's grave misgivings about the war, Turks believe the United States has not taken sufficient care to address their security concerns. Indeed, over the last six months, more Turkish soldiers have been killed by the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, than Americans by Iraqi insurgents. Yet the Pentagon has resisted calls to act against the PKK, partly because of grudges held against Turkey.

Turkey's relationship with the EU has also worsened since December 2004. Since the EU decided to start accession negotiations, Europeans have released an unrelenting barrage of discomfort with potential Turkish membership.

Relations also remain strained over the inability of the EU to find a constructive approach to the Cyprus issue, despite repeated assurances that the isolation of Turkish Cyprus would be lifted.

Many Turks note that Europeans are eager to engage Turkey on energy security, immigration and integration, or peacekeeping forces in Lebanon, but fail to involve Turks when the future of Europe is debated.

While Turkey's neighborhood becomes more dangerous and its strategic value to the West increases, it is often neglected as a partner. Not surprisingly, Turkish support for EU membership has dropped from 73 percent in 2004 to 54 percent in 2006, according to the Transatlantic Trends survey.

In the past, Turkey could usually rely on the United States when relations with the EU were strained. But this link is now also frayed.

Consequently, silently yet effectively, Turkey is redefining its foreign-policy orientation in view of its newly discovered strategic depth.

The Turkish response to this situation is very much linked to its domestic politics. The rise of the Justice and Development Party in 2002 brought into office a cadre that is willing to engage more directly with the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

The war in Iraq, Western tensions with Syria and Iran and the war in Lebanon provided ample opportunity for Turkish decision makers to express their new foreign-policy outlook.

Formally, Turkey remains in the Western camp, but it is increasingly the odd man out. In contrast, Turkey's relations with Russia have developed exponentially. Relations with Iran are also improving. Tehran provides assistance to Ankara's efforts to fight the PKK and is a significant gas supplier.

While it is still too early to talk about a major shift in Turkey, all the ingredients for a realignment are there. José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission president, recently warned that Europe needs to be very careful about Turkey's gravitating strategic role on Europe's borders.

It would be highly desirable if other European leaders acquired similar wisdom. Otherwise there will be little value in blaming each other when we start asking, "Who lost Turkey?"

Suat Kiniklioglu is director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/...ion/edsuat.php

The reasons for Turkey's disillusionment apparently is genuine.

The EU imbroglio has not been addressed and the US has not really cared about the security concerns of Turkey.

In case, Turkey joins the Russian camp, it will have a serious repercussion because Turkey controls the Straits of Bosporus and the CAR oilfields are in the Caspian where in either flanks will become Russian controlled.

EU and the US will have to think very hard.

-{SpoonmaN}- · 09-08-2006, 23:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray

The reasons for Turkey's disillusionment apparently is genuine.

The EU imbroglio has not been addressed and the US has not really cared about the security concerns of Turkey.

In case, Turkey joins the Russian camp, it will have a serious repercussion because Turkey controls the Straits of Bosporus and the CAR oilfields are in the Caspian where in either flanks will become Russian controlled.

EU and the US will have to think very hard.

My point exactly, Europe would do well to ignore the idiotic predjudices of their far-right minority and see Turkey for what it is: a very valuable place to have on their side. As for the USA, Turkey is far better to be a friend than an enemy, since the USA needs all the non-totalitarian friends it can get in the Middle-East these days.

smilingassassin · 09-09-2006, 18:09 PM

Hell even some of the EU members have become disallusioned about the whole EU idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen spoiling the recipe.

-{SpoonmaN}- · 09-10-2006, 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smilingassassin

Hell even some of the EU members have become disallusioned about the whole EU idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen spoiling the recipe.

Indeed, and they've pushed for too much integration too fast. If Europe had a common enemy or something along those lines people would be willing to compromise, but right now all they're focusing on is the few things they'll lose in face of the many things they stand to gain from a proper union.
I guess this means they don't mind letting America and China run the world in the future.

09-07-2006, 22:34 PM	#2 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	I cannot see Turkey leaving NATO, Sir. As bad as things are, it is still a Big Boys Club and Turkey wants to be seen as a Big Boy. __________________ Chimo

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09-08-2006, 09:04 AM	#3 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,144 Country:	How far do you think that Turkey is a bit browned off because of the hassles in getting admission in the EU as also the influence of resurgent Islam?

09-09-2006, 18:09 PM	#7 (permalink)
smilingassassin *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-12-03 Location: Vancouver Canada Posts: 2,719 Country:	Hell even some of the EU members have become disallusioned about the whole EU idea. Too many cooks in the kitchen spoiling the recipe.

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