Source: Greek SAMIZDAT - Magazine (Greece)
US Strategic Reports future scenarios: War possible between Turkey, and Greece, Russia and Syria (Part3)
- Scenarios focus on Turkey’s key relations with Russia, Israel, Iran, and the Caucasus
- In one scenario, Greece and Syria fight Turkey and Israel in 2007. Israeli jets defeat Greeks
- Turkey and Israel occupy Syria in 2008 after Assad’s plane is shot down while he is fleeing to Sudan’
- Israeli coup topples Saddam and Iraq splits into three states
- In third scenario, Russia and Greece occupy Turkey and independent Kurdistan established
- After Russia's de facto disintegration, ‘Turkish Empire’ emerges across Caucasus and Central Asia,’ the fourth scenario suggests
By Ugur Akinci
Turkish Daily News
Friday, May 16, 1997
Washington-A Pentagon-sponsored strategic assessment of Turkey’s future between 1997-2020 prepared by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) of Virginia develops four possible scenarios revolving around Turkey’s relations with four key players:Israel, Iran, Russia, and Greece.
The SAIC report entitled "Turkey Futures Workshop Final Report," grew out of a Dec. 1996 conference attended by senior current and former members of the U.S. intelligence community, plus administration officials and scholars. (For a full list of participants see Part I.)
Among the "significant findings" of the report, we have already focused on two in the previous segments: that "Islam will not dominate Turkey," and "Turkish military may lose viability as guarantor of the political system."
Today, in this third and final segment, we will present brief summaries of these four scenarios dealt with in great detail in the original report.
(We recommend those interested in the topic to get the original report from SAIC, Strategic Assessment Center.)
· Scenario #1) Turkey and Iran Reconcile.
· Scenario #2) Turkey and Israel establish new security order in the Middle East.
· Scenario #3) Resurgent Russia tames Turkey.
· Scenario #4) Turkey creates a Caucasus Federation.
Turkey and Iran reconcile and form a federation.
This scenario assumes the following: Turkey will seek to diversify its energy supplies away from Russia; militant Kurds will continue to threaten stability of both states;the U.S. "containment" for Iran will continue.
*** 1997-2000: Turkey and Iran sign a series of multi-billion dollar energy deals. Turkey emerges as Iran’s bridge to Europe and elsewhere, effectively circumventing the U.S. embargo. The United States reacts sharply. A dynamic and young Welfare Party (RP) leader pushes Erbakan aside. RP wins 1999 elections with a comfortable majority. In Iran two leading Ayatollahs die and more pragmatic leaders come to power.
*** 2001-2004: Kurdish agitation supported by Syria and Iraq, plus U.S. insistence on Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq, bring Iran and Turkey closer. Turkey’s new RP prime minister commits himself to bringing an end to Kurdish insurgency.
European Union (EU) finally rejects Turkey’s full membership bid in 2001. Russia continues to meddle in Caucasus politics. Turkey reacts by developing strong commercial and political relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and even begins trade with Armenia.
Turkey's military relationship with Israel is supported by all Turkish governments, secular and Islamic.
*** 2005-2007: Azeri oil begins to flow but the northern route to Novorossysk is under Chechen attack. Azerbaijan diverts much of its oil via Georgia and Iran, and then through Turkey to the Mediterranean.
Turkey and Iran treat each other as "most favored nation" in Caucasus and Central Asia. Ideas circulate to form a "Turkish-Iranian Federation" to cope with the Kurdish threat. This would secure Turkey’s support for Iran’s territorial integrity in the face of rising Azerbaijani demands for reunification.
*** 2008: U.S. containment of Iran continues. Kurds launch attacks from Iraq and destroy gas lines coming from Iran.Turkey retaliates with deep strikes into Iraq. Iraq protests. U.S. is silent. Israeli intelligence informs Turks that Iraqi leadership plans acts of terror against Turkey, and that this is supported by Moscow which is afraid of Turkey’s increasing importance in Eurasia. Turkey passes this information to Iran.
Iran begins to mobilize along its border with Iraq.
*** 2009-2010: Turkey strikes Iraqi targets in northern Iraq. Israeli pilots fly some Turkish planes. Iran sends several divisions into Iraq. Iraq asks Moscow’s help. Russia is indignant but unmoved. When Iraq threatens Turkey with chemical and biological weapons, Iran threatens Iraq with the same. Iran and Turkey declare northern Iraq a zone of "joint influence. "Turkey also hits PKK camps in Syria. Syria suspects Israeli involvement and quickly closes down PKK facilities within its borders.
*** 2011: A Turko-Iranian Federated State, to be implemented over a 15-year period culminating in 2025, is declared. European Union reverses itself and offers full membership despite earlier protest of human rights abuses. EU move is aimed to frustrate Turk-Iran federation, but Turkey rejects EU offer. Turkey stays in NATO but asks U.S. to close all bases and go home.
*** 2012-2020: Crisscrossing gas and oil pipelines through Turkey and Iran bring Caspian/Central Asian oil and gas to world markets.
Turkey's Southeast prospers as a result. Kurds who left decades ago start returning to the Southeast. East-west trade across Central Asia and the Caucasus is booming. ECO is given new life. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia also apply for membership in an expanded federation.
ENDSTATE: Turkey keeps its ties to Europe and membership in NATO but now it has other economic and strategic interests that focus it increasingly eastward. U.S. influence in the region has declined dramatically.
"One of the unanticipated benefits of this cooperation is a behind-the-scenes relationship developing between Israel and Iran, which takes many directions including intelligence sharing and technology transfer."
Turkey and Israel establish new security order in the Middle East
This scenario assumes the following: Israeli-Turkish military cooperation continues and expands; U.S. politically chooses Greece over Turkey; Turkey is capable of waging defensive war on two fronts.
*** 1997-1999: Sale of Russian antiaircraft missiles to Greek Cypriots continues to create turmoil in Turkey. NATO refuses to become involved. Riots break out in Cyprus, with both communities committing heinous atrocities against the other’s population. Greek-American lobby kicks into action, to cut all U.S. assistance to Turkey.
*** 2000-2002: Turkish military stages a coup, deposes ineffective civilian government, takes the reins of power and almost immediately Turkish F-16s strike at missile sites in Cyprus, with more Turkish troops landing on Cyprus and some Greek islands. Greece responds by staging air strikes against Turkey’s Aegean installations. A kind of "phony war" settles in, with threat of an all-out war but only minor skirmishes in actuality.
U.S. Congress freezes all assistance to Turkey. EU also adopts embargo but some member states observe it erratically. Pro-Turkish sentiment is strong in Germany, Austria and Poland. Israeli lobby in U.S. supports Turkey. NATO is paralyzed due to Turkish-Greek conflict.
*** 2003: Turkish public opinion turns sharply anti-American. All U.S. bases in Turkey are closed. Israel proposes a full military alliance with a secret protocol envisioning joint action against Syria. Turkish military, frustrated with Syrian support for PKK, accepts the arrangement.
*** 2003-2005: PKK terrorists, armed and trained by Greece and operating out of Syria, attack Turkish commercial interests in southern Turkey. Attacks on large southern Turkish cities inflame Turkish public opinion.
*** 2006-2007: Israel instigates an unsuccessful coup against Assad in Damascus. Coup leaders appeal to Turkey from Aleppo. When Turkey moves troops into northern Syria, Greece regards this as an opportunity and strikes against Turkey’s Aegean coast, including military targets in Izmir. Turkey responds by striking at the Greek mainland. Turkish and Greek navies clash in the Aegean. U.S. Congress takes a strongly anti-Turkish line. Greek aircraft support Syrians while Israelis strike Syrians from rear. "In one engagement, a seasoned Israeli pilot downs four Greek fighter-bombers. In one day’s fighting Greece loses 20 aircraft." Greece pulls out of the conflict.
*** 2008-2012: Israel advances on Damascus through Lebanon and from the Golan Heights. Assad’s plane is shot down over eastern Mediterranean by a combined Turkish-Israeli air operation as he flees to Sudan. Turkey and Israel occupy Syria, but a viable post-Assad government cannot be established quickly.
Israel, with full U.S. support, stages a coup to topple Saddam and it succeeds. Iraq splits into three states. Iran occupies eastern section, Turkey the Mosul region, while the western region forms a federation with Syria. Russia accepts the fait accompli.
ENDSTATE: Turkey and Israel dominate the Middle East militarily. After Greece’s defeat, NATO is severely weakened. Iran has to decide if it wants wider relations with Turkey and, in effect, also Israel, or opposes this direction and moves closer to Russia?
Resurgent Russia Tames Turkey
This scenario assumes the following: Russia will recover militarily and economically; Turkey’s military will intervene in civilian politics; Turkey will actively pursue ambitions in the Caucasus.
*** 1999: Turkish military forces formation of an above-parties government to break the deadlock.
*** 2000: Refah party wins the elections, increasing its votes but the election results are nullified under military pressure because of alleged irregularities.
*** 2002: EU rejects Turkey’s full membership for not having a democratic government. Support for political Islamists increases. U.S. Congress terminates all U.S. assistance to Turkey, despite White House’s objections.
*** 2003-2008: Military leaders delay return of government to civilian control. Economy falters. PKK insurgency becomes more serious.
Russia has taken over Belarus in 1998 and moved against Ukraine. Due to Western aid, Russian economy is doing fine. It has a smaller but much more efficient army. Keeps biological and nuclear warfare capabilities in spite of agreements with the West. Now openly declares its intention to use all military means at its disposal to defend and extend its national interests.
*** 2009-2010: Turkish military continues to support Azerbaijan and Georgia and promises assistance in resisting Russian expansionism.
Russia reacts with Moscow-inspired coups in Caucasus capitals. The region degenerates into chaos. Russia helps to reinvigorate PKK attacks. The oil pipeline from Georgia to Turkey is blown up.
*** 2012: Russia gives an ultimatum to Turkey to stop meddling in the Caucasus, to restore pre-1918 borders and to recognize an independent Kurdistan. Turkey rejects Russian demands.
*** 2013: Russia, threatening to use nuclear and biological weapons, mounts an invasion of Turkey from the Black Sea. Turkish forces lose control of Istanbul, the Marmara region and Black Sea ports. Ankara appeals to UN for armistice while Greece begins occupying Izmir and most of the Aegean coast.
*** 2015-2018: The U.S. and EU declare a belated economic embargo against Russia. China, scared of Russian expansion, supports the embargo. While UN calls for a peace conference in Switzerland, Russia consolidates its position in the Turkish territory.
*** 2020: Big powers agree to the separation of Istanbul and Marmara from the Turkish Republic and complete demilitarization. The U.S. conference also creates an international commission to regulate passage from the Turkish straits. A Kurdish state encompassing 21 eastern Turkish villages is also established.Greece, however, is asked to withdraw from Izmir and the Aegean since no Greeks live there. The truncated Turkish Republic retains Central Anatolia and the Mediterranean coast except for Iskenderun which Russia insists be returned to Syria.
*** 2021-2025: Famine develops among millions of Turkish refugees, now crowding into a severely reduced Turkish territory. The U.S. mounts a major famine relief operation. Turkey watches helplessly as Caucasus and Central Asia get reabsorbed into the revived Russian/Soviet empire.
ENDSTATE: Russia gains unfettered access to the straits. Turkey is reduced in size and strength. Russia is unchallenged in its quest to reincorporate its empire.
Turkey creates a Caucasian Federation
This scenario assumes the following: Russia becomes increasingly weak and incoherent.
*** 1999: Yeltsin dies of heart failure. Alexander Lebed emerges as the new Russian leader but Russia’s fragmentation continues as economy falters.
In Turkey, Erbakan government collapsed in 1997 after his sudden, arbitrary break with Israel. After long bargaining, Erbakan is succeeded by a young, pragmatic RP mayor who forms a coalition by promising stability and an end to corruption.
*** 2000-2002: Caucasian countries, including the northern Caucasus territories within Russia (the ethnic republics as well as the Stavropol and Krasnodar Krays), conclude several cooperation agreements among themselves. Turkish aid agency (TIKA) increases economic assistance.
*** 2003: Lebed is assassinated and Russia falls into disarray. Caucasian nations announce the formation of a Caucasian Federation. Political debate in Turkey revolves around the extent of support to be extended.
*** 2004: Turkey recognizes the Caucasian Federation and promotes it in international fora. West provides humanitarian aid, if not full recognition.
*** 2005-2006: Russian military mounts an ill-organized neo-imperialist offensive against Chechnya, Dagestan and Georgia, but is defeated. Turkey provides military aid and concludes in 2006 a treaty with Caucasian Federation to provide arms for ten years in return for increased revenues from oil pipelines carrying Azeri and Central Asian crude oil to the Mediterranean.
*** 2008: After a long period of vacillation, U.S. and major European nations reconcile themselves to the de facto breakup of the Russian Federation, but insist it remain formally in existence along the analogy of the Holy Roman Empire.
*** 2010-2020: The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization flourishes with participation of Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania.Meanwhile in Central Asia, a "Turanian Federation" has emerged in response to the confusion in Russia, and with covert support of China. Growing trade and east-west transportation leads to formation of a tripartite economic association: Turkey, Caucasian Federation, Central Asian [Turanian] Association, with support from China.
ENDSTATE: The world recognizes that a new international power emerged with Turkey and Turkic states as predominant members; in effect, a new "Turkish Empire" but based on free association and principles of economic activity. With a growing population of more than 225 million, the Turkish Federation greatly exceeds the population of what remains of the troubled Russian Federation.
why? it is pentagon-thingink ****
No, it just fairly fanatical.
Israel has its hands tied with Palestine and Iran.
None of these are going to happen.
Yeh its a pentagon thing. I get it from the pentagon in Australia.
Pentagon-financed think-tank made these.Originally Posted by Commando
Why ? When Israel goes to war, Turkey is on her side. When Turkey goes to war, Israel is on Turkey's side. so it is.
ISRAEL-Turkey strong allies. Not more USA but Israel yes.
Could you honestly tell me that if Israel declared war on Iran, Turkey would be a good ally and fight for Israel.
P.S still a waste of a thred
Israel signed with Rurkey in 1996 military agreement which is Top-Sectret.
Only parts of it are available for public.
Israel has the right to do every airforce maneuver within turkish airspace. Same for turkey in israel airspace.
It is granted to Israel to make spy-missions to Iran via Turkish airspace.
Alan Makovsky, “Turkish-Israeli Relations in the Context of Israeli-Arab Tensions,” Policy Watch
No.502 (Washington D.C.: Washington Institute Near East Policy, 10 November 2000). Available online:
because of this Iran is fearing that from turkish airspace there will be attacks on IRAN
Hossein Aryan, “Missile development and Iranian Security,” Jane’s Intelligence Review,
1 September 2001. Available online: www.janesonline.com.
Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment-The Gulf States-10,” Jane’s Online, 29 October 2001. Available
in 1998 turkish ambassador said in Washington: "When Iraq attacks Israel with missiles, Turkish airspace is open for attacks to IRAQ"
Ed Blanche, “ Israel and Turkey Look to Extend Their Influence into Central Asia,” Jane’s Intelligence
for 99% sure. Israeli attacks on Iran will be made through turkish airspace.
The air force training exchange agreement signed between Turkey and Israel in 1996 calls for Israeli aircraft to train in Turkey four times a year. These flight trainings enable the Israelis to gain experience flying long-range missions over mountainous areas -a skill that would be necessary for missions over Iran,
and provide greater opportunities for overland training than are available in a small country like Israel. Such exercises also enable both air forces to become familiar with procedures and tactics used by their counterparts. This familiarity could potentially facilitate cooperation in wartime. In the air, Turkey could
allow damaged Israeli aircraft to land at Turkish air bases and permit Israeli combat search and rescue crews trained to rescue the downed pilots to operate from its soil. This would allow the Israeli air force to be more aggressive and take greater risks. It could also allow Israel to use Turkish air bases to launch
manned and unmanned reconnaissance flights over Syria and Iran. It could likewise allow Israeli attack helicopters, aircraft, and commandos operating from Turkish staging areas hunting missile launchers in Syria, Iran and Iraq. It could also allow Israel to use the series of air bases in its border with Syria and Iran
for combat missions, raising the possibility of attacks against both. For a detailed analysis of the military aspects of the Turkish-Israeli Military cooperation, see Michael Eisenstadt, “Turkish-Israeli Military
Cooperation: An Assessment, ” PolicyWatch # 262 (Washington D.C.: Washington Institute Near East
Policy, 24 July 1997). Available online: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/turkey/.
Iran and Turkey are at present at unofficial war.
Iran supports Terrororganization who killed over hundreds of turkish diplomats over the past decades. (Hizbullah)
“Turkish-Iranian Tension: A New Regional Flashpoint? ” PolicyWatch #404,
(Washington D.C.: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 9 August 1999).
Also see Ersel Aydinli
“Implications of Turkey's Anti-Hizbullah Operation,” PolicyWatch #439 (Washington D.C.: Washington
Institute Near East Policy, 9 February 2000). Available online: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/turkey/.
1996 there were press-articles, news-articles, that said that Iran is developing Bio-weapons and could supply Terrororganizations to harm Kemalistic Turkey with these weapons, who then attack Turkish soldiers in Afghaniostan
“Turkey Fears Anthrax Attack,” Middle East
Available online: www.menewsline.com.
When Iran has nuclear weapons, we can do nothing anymore for our Azerbaycan-brothers, who are de-facto enemies of IRAN. Azerbaycan is Turkic Nation.
Source:A nuclear-armed Iran would be in a position to claim leadership of the Islamic world, and to exercise increased influence on Turkish domestic
politics to the detriment of Turkey’s Western-type secular democratic
regime and western-oriented foreign policy.
Duygu Bazoglu Sezer, “Turkey’s New Security Environment, Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation,”
Comparative Strategy, vol. 14, no. 2, Spring-Summer 1995, pp. 165.
When there will be war against IRAN. And Israel is participateing we will assist Israel so that Israel will win this conflict.
Israel can deploy MBT, F-16, Soldiers and soon to turkey. and can attack IRAN from Turkey. Israel and Turkley are strategic allies, with the same interests in the region, and a long long mutual history.
USA is not allowed to-
Turkey has begun the process of intergration with the EU in ten to fifteen years time.
No war will occur.
Why is War always in the mind of turks?
Could it be that thay have nothing else to rememper?
Your nation failed to make a friend in the region or elsewhere from the day you moved out of turkmenistan ot whatever %&&^&^stan it was.
When you stop thinking of war in every single pray, you might have a chance of getting a real nation and not the compilation of 52 nations that you are now. They keep their ethnicity, they rememper, because you never let them feel at ease in their own ancient countries. And their free brothers count on them to, because you threaten with more war, again and again, and in all directions.
To be fair to turks, war is in the mind of every nation. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. Otherwise you get caught with your pants down.
"Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.
Really. Feel free to compare Turkey and Greece in terms of neighbourhood... Beyond historical reasons, we are not reach country. However, it is only Greece and Armenia. Have you made a friend from the day you moved from north or where ever %&&^&^ it was.Your nation failed to make a friend in the region or elsewhere from the day you moved out of turkmenistan ot whatever %&&^&^stan it was.
You look like me. If I am combination of 52 nations so you are. If you mean other nations live in Turkey... so give us the percent of your country's minorities. Are Albanians still 10%?When you stop thinking of war in every single pray, you might have a chance of getting a real nation and not the compilation of 52 nations that you are now. They keep their ethnicity,
Friagians, Lykians, Hittites can not remember their past. Reason was not Turks.They keep their ethnicity, they rememper, because you never let them feel at ease in their own ancient countries. And their free brothers count on them to, because you threaten with more war, again and again, and in all directions.
There are people of goodwill in both Greece and Turkey, and I'm sure they comprise the majority of the population in each country. Both are valued members of NATO. One is already a member of the EU and the other will be in a reasonable time frame. What on earth is there to go to war about? Bygones must be bygones. You have far more in common with each other than some people seem to realise.
Semper in excretum. Solum profunda variat.
To be fair, this thread is extremely old and irrelevant .
Thiseas, please don't years back looking for bad threads.
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