Armenia and Azerbaidjan (If hostilities resume or a frozen conflict forever?)

**cyppok** · 24 Jul 12,, 20:19

I decided to post it in Europe cause its sort of in between.

My thoughts are after the excerpts and map.
Azeri President Says Armenia Will Lose If Karabakh War Resumes - Businessweek

“I have no doubt that Armenia will flee the battlefield if the active phase of the war starts,” Aliyev said in remarks broadcast on the state television channel AzTV today. “We have every opportunity to regain control of our territory.”

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65525

Russia Hints at Intervention in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
June 11, 2012 - 11:31am, by Joshua Kucera

Several days after apparent widespread skirmishes all along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the Nagorno-Karabakh "line of contact," there is still very little information about what actually happened. For a while, though, at least on the internet, it seemed that a serious escalation of violence was imminent.

It's a bit odd that, amid all the rumors of massive fighting, there doesn't seem to have been any casualties on either side, suggesting that the reports may have been some sort of deliberate disinformation campaign. And that's what the Armenian Defense Ministry has suggested:

Russian fighter jets stationed at a base in Armenia have conducted about 300 training flights since the beginning of 2012, and have increased the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent from last year...

Colonel Gorbul said Russian fighter pilots were preparing for combat. “The main emphasis in performing aerobatic elements is made on the ability to apply them in real-life air combat conditions,” he said.

Armenia Confirms Shoot-Out With Azerbaijani Forces

Clinton, who is currently on her tour in the Caucasus, warned in Yerevan on June 4 that tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, the separatist Armenian-populated territory inside Azerbaijan, could escalate into a "much broader conflict."

APA - Turkey-Azerbaijan military cooperation discussed in Baku

Turkey-Azerbaijan military cooperation discussed in Baku
[ 07 Feb 2012 17:44 ]
Safar Abiyev gave information about the military-political situation in the region and the problems caused by Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Minister said as the efforts made by the Minsk Group towards the resolution of the conflict have not produced concrete results, Azerbaijan is obliged to take back the occupied Azerbaijani territories through other means, therefore it is strengthening the Armed Forces.

Military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan was discussed at the meeting, the sides underlined the importance of enhancing the relations.

Russia to Double Troops in Armenia | EurasiaNet.org

Russia to Double Troops in Armenia
June 20, 2012 - 10:41pm, by Giorgi Lomsadze
Following a pick-up in fatal gunfire exchanges along the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline, Moscow has announced plans to double its troop strength in ally Armenia by the end of the year. The upshot of the message was clear: Azerbaijan could face Russian guns if it attempts to push Armenian forces out of long-occupied Azerbaijani lands.

The new arrivals will be temporary -- the "permanent" troop presence at Gyumri, the northern Armenian site of Russia's 102nd Military Base, will stay at 5,000, according to Colonel Igor Gorbul, a spokesperson for Russia's Southern Military District, RIA Novosti reported -- and will receive a higher salary and undefined benefits to whet their interest in sticking around.

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https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikiped...gions_2008.svg
Map from there I just wanted a topographic / political / control map that is integrated granted this one is a bit hard to see where the mountain ridges are.
I looked through the battles/timeline of the last war and kinda makes sense for Kelbajar to be taken to extend the physical ridge border in then end from a military perspective...

Anyways. My thoughts are as follows.
Azerbaidjan is posturing because it is under pressure. Politicians within it are basically somewhat corrupt and the oil revenues brought riches to the beuracracy. Ergo the class divide within society is pushing it fairly heavily somewhere, thus posturing and populism is practiced often with actions here and there and no concrete inclination to do much. The problem is that those IDP internally displaced people that gout of the region and were displaced are a decent minority of the population. Furthermore many of them whom grew up would likely be disadvantaged economically due to being displaced and the mobility is abridged due to usual nepotism and corruption. So society is somewhat simmering in a pressure cooker of forcing the issue of normalizing economic benefit through retaking of areas to at least symbolically regain economic rung for the bottom tier. Theoretically this is flawed sociologically it really isn't. Most people look at land as probably small business fruit farming as a reality that could sustain them and provide better way of life than being on the bottom tier the economy in the country.

I think someone makes a move. Sooner rather than later. What I am trying to figure out is what the ramifications will be. If Turkey gets involved and we have a major theater event there could be some serious destabilization issues that could have very big ripples. For example if Turkey goes into Armenia theoretically NATO does not apply since it is a defensive alliance... And this is only one of a myriad of possibilities.

Thoughts comments discussion and other opinions are welcome.

**kato** · 24 Jul 12,, 22:13

Thoughts? I remotely know a guy in Georgia who'd earn big from all those bribes from the smugglers...

Otherwise, the thing to watch out for is the strained political relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. Remember that one in five Iranians are ethnic Azeris, including Ali Khamenei. And Iranian propaganda has been pushing that angle, especially exploiting the repression the Azerbaijani government has going with Western support; there's a considerable population share in Azerbaijan supporting Tehran, and "Pro-Iran" groups in the country - which just recently the government has started persecuting, with Iran responding in kind. This tension has in particular been rising since the beginning of this year.

**cyppok** · 25 Jul 12,, 12:18

Originally Posted by kato

Thoughts? I remotely know a guy in Georgia who'd earn big from all those bribes from the smugglers...

Otherwise, the thing to watch out for is the strained political relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. Remember that one in five Iranians are ethnic Azeris, including Ali Khamenei. And Iranian propaganda has been pushing that angle, especially exploiting the repression the Azerbaijani government has going with Western support; there's a considerable population share in Azerbaijan supporting Tehran, and "Pro-Iran" groups in the country - which just recently the government has started persecuting, with Iran responding in kind. This tension has in particular been rising since the beginning of this year.

Azerbaidjan has elections coming up.
NKRepublic had them recently.

My guess is tensions for Azerbaidjan are stemming from bifurcation of society for those who gain from oil and gas wealth to most who do not.
I don't think Iran will ever go into Azerbaidjan, Russia might but Iran realizes this would change the dynamic with all of its neighbors Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, even Iraq. I used to write about Azeris on both sides of the border uniting into a single state but the reality is at this point it seems Azerbaidjan is more corrupt than Iran in their(Iranian Azeris) world view, and their opportunities are seen in Iran as well. It might change eventually.

Iran, Azerbaijan In Tense Caspian Standoff, Cables Show | EurasiaNet.org
Sea and Air military tensions might occur but Land tensions going to cross border incursions VERY UNLIKELY.

Azerbaijan: Referendum Results Give Green Light to President-for-Life | EurasiaNet.org
(2009 story of Azerbaidjan elections/referendum to extend term limits for President)

Azerbaijan's constitutional referendum featured a Soviet-style result, as election officials claimed that more than nine out of every 10 voters expressed approval for lifting presidential term limits. Opposition leaders, meanwhile, are describing the referendum as a charade designed to mask the introduction of hereditary rule in the country.

Kazakhstan and by extension Russia has leverage on Iran in the form of grain supplies. How long do you think their invasion would last if there was a united front by post-soviet states in "sanctioning them by closing off trade"... Lets just say if prices tripple in a month or two no amount of military power will hold Iran together so doubt they would ever risk it. Economic pain would be limited to a few dollars less per ton of grain sold btw.

The Central Election Commission said that preliminary results showed that 91.7 percent of voters backed providing such an extension of the presidential and parliamentary terms of office; at least 87 percent supported each of the remaining 48 constitutional amendments, which covered issues ranging from media rights to the functioning of local government.

TANAS is another interesting factor geopolitically speaking. The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline would most likely ship gas from Azerbaidjan via Turkey to Europe and very likely connect to Turkmenistan to fill it. Up to 60 billion cubic meters eventual transport is proposed. That is a lot of gas at $300 dollars a 1000 cubic meters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-...n_gas_pipeline
At 16 billion initially its about 4.8 billion dollars in gas.
Azerbaijan & Turkmenistan: Renewing Caspian Sea Energy Dispute | EurasiaNet.org
July 11, 2012 article

But energy analyst Ilham Shaban believes that Russian opposition is driven mainly by economics. Backing Shaban’s belief, the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet on July 5 quoted Turkish officials as saying Azerbaijani gas, imported via the new trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, will undersell Russian gas in Turkey by at least 12 percent. The amount of Azerbaijani gas being exported to Turkey is “not so high as to compete with Russian gas,” noted Shaban. But throw Turkmen gas to the mix, and “the prices will be even cheaper,” he added.

“Russia cannot allow the construction of the trans-Caspian pipeline,” Shaban asserted.

If the trans-Caspian pipeline works out, Russia will face a fresh threat to its hold on European gas markets, commented Azerbaijani political analyst Arastun Oruilu, head of the East-West think-tank The conflict over the Caspian Sea gas fields stems from “Russia’s desire to keep its monopoly” on those markets, he contended.

Shah Deniz field second stage(10 bil) and this pipeline(7 bil) are about $17 billion which is a pretty big bet on the board game.
add to that the necessity of a Trans-Caspian pipeline and the commitments to buy gas that would come with it and its a $25 billion without cost overruns and total cost of financing etc... Big bet

If populism on the grass roots rises up due to being suppressed after the 2009 referendum and curtailment of speech and political activism there might be a few unforeseen events. Since essentially opposition that is real is all underground.

**kato** · 25 Jul 12,, 14:54

Originally Posted by cyppok

I don't think Iran will ever go into Azerbaidjan, Russia might but Iran realizes this would change the dynamic with all of its neighbors Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, even Iraq.

Well, of course. But it could be perfectly possible for Iran in the current environment to sponsor regime change in Azerbaijan. Don't need any troops across the border for that. Or say, if open clashes erupt between Azerbaijan and Armenia to e.g. sponsor something like neutrality and semi-independence for Nachichewan.

Originally Posted by cyppok

(2009 story of Azerbaidjan elections/referendum to extend term limits for President)

Well, it's a slippery slope down to emulating Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan slipped a very good bit down in 2009...

**snapper** · 25 Jul 12,, 15:22

You might want to take into account that Azerbaijan has leased an airbase to Israel and that Uzbekistan withdrew from the CSTO in June.

**cyppok** · 25 Jul 12,, 20:38

Originally Posted by kato

Well, of course. But it could be perfectly possible for Iran in the current environment to sponsor regime change in Azerbaijan. Don't need any troops across the border for that. Or say, if open clashes erupt between Azerbaijan and Armenia to e.g. sponsor something like neutrality and semi-independence for Nachichewan.

Well, it's a slippery slope down to emulating Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan slipped a very good bit down in 2009...

Regime change is very unlikely unless it is either secular or ethnic/religious nationalism.
Think about the body populous, most of the people in Azerbaidjan are former soviet citizenry whom have certain predispositions, regarding learning, secularization between church and state, and generally various aspects. Iran could foment change the problem is controlling it would be very hard and unlikely. They know this from experience, Abulfaz Elchibey...

Nachichkevan is probably the most nationalistic part of Azerbaidjan most of the people ruling it came from there[and their relatives are still in power why would they leave?] including Aliyevs they wouldn't want to be independent.

The difference between Turkmenistan and Azerbaidjan is that the later has European market access via pipelines and oil is generally easier to profit from than gas. Also from a regional perspective Azerbaidjan is larger population wise and more unstable due to 'a state of war', those people on the ground want their land back... unless they were bought off by oil revenue and somehow compensated or just generally got used to the new reality.

Uzbekistan doesn't really matter its across the Caspian, unless it attacks Turkmenistan and tries to take it over, which is unlikely. The Israeli base also doesn't matter at most there could be a border incursion to hit it if there is a potential flare up but it most likely won't lead to taking over Azerbaidjan. Uzbekistan goes in and out of CSTO periodically.

My guess is the airbase is for teaching and demonstrating purposes for the fulfillment contracts ergo weapon sales and wont be used against Iran.

Btw Armenia is just as corrupt as Azerbaidjan just less things to steal no oil and gas revenue so the difference between classes is lower and less unstable.

http://www.rferl.org/content/turkmen...dInfoContainer
Btw I am posting this link just for reference arguments sake.

The wheat harvest this year fell 25 percent short of the 1.6 million-ton state target.

Prices for bread at state-run stores increased threefold on July 6.

This is in a country where bread is subsidized, Iran stopped subsidy of bread more or less and the prices there are also skyrocketing. This is why I keep mentioning the amount of leverage Kazakhstan and Russia have over Iran its very soft but very meaningful, especially in light of sanctions.

**RollingWave** · 26 Jul 12,, 03:42

the weather's pretty damn bad all over this year. Taiwan saw it's crop damaged pretty badly by unexpected heavy rain . as did parts of China and Japan.

looking at modern day Armenian versus medieval or antiquity oncse is quite a sad picture though.

**cyppok** · 03 Aug 12,, 20:56

Caspian Intelligence: Fighting Escalates Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

What is noteworthy is that the fighting took place a significant distance (about 30 miles) from the Line of Contact around Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts, where most clashes take place. This week's violence occurred in the northern sector of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan: the Armenian soldiers reportedly died in Tavush, near the village of Chinari, whilst the Azeri soldiers were killed near Ashagy-Askipara, part of a tiny and almost entirely desolate exclave within Armenia.

These are about 25 miles apart, which indicates that the clashes are not linked by local geography (i.e. an Armenian incursion followed by a local Azerbaijani counterattack) but part of a broader pattern of probing attempts along the border. This is borne out by reported exchanges of fire from 31 May - 2 June in multiple locations across the northern sector. More gunfire has been reported along the border and the LoC on 5 June.

Granted this was more than two months ago still.
Notice where its happening in the north not near Karabakh, probing attacks by both sides.