There seems to be quite a lot of threads dealing with Russia, but what is your stance on the overall situation? Since the chaos of the post-Cold War era the new Russia, so to speak, has been experiencing a revival and while still facing huge challenges, the direction is clear: stronger, more authoritarian, more self-conscious and active Russia that is trying to reverse the demographical disaster, aiming to create modern economy and modernizing her military by looking into Western model, they have finally swallowed their pride and are buying tech from outsiders while having many joint projects in order to overcome their challenges.
As of today they are making deals with Germany (Nord Stream), France and Italy (military tech), challenging their competitors in the Central Asia (South Stream) and have managed to tighten their grip of Belarus and Ukraina. Russia today, is far more active and stronger than it was 10 years ago.
So.. what do you think?
I will throw in my two cents a bit later
Debt Ridden with nowhere near the spending clout as a result of poor economic/financial outlook which in itself is used to further authoritarian practices - but too inhibited overall to effect what they once could have, however big enough to exert enough pressure on immediate, weaker neighbours.
There are bigger alarms than Russia. It holds nuke keys but not enough financial clout.
Ego Numquam
i think your second idea of Russian influence on her adjacent neighbors is a more attractive topic
IMO we can all pretty much agree on the first, and your words describes it very well, but anyone feel free to elaborate
What are you talking about?Originally Posted by Chunder
Never fight a land war in Asia.
Realisticly Russia is propering on high gas prices and it's exports to Western Europe; we are inter-dependant. As for the 'new Czar Putin', whilst he's a clever chap and good at media etc ('finding' ancient pots in the Black Sea and 'hunting' bears in Siberia etc) he hasn't actualy done alot to reform their economy. Now they are joining the WTO these restructering reforms will need to be done; after he is re-crowned he is likely to face a more demanding situation. Of course if their ecomony should slump - and it probably will - his crown is not so secure. I think His Holiness Czar Putin 2nd Time faces a rougher time than before.
The expectations are higher.
No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
I am very dissapointed they joined the WTO but still think the market access interplay is getting interesting. But Russia at this point is more of an economically minded competitor than a military one. The perceptions tie these two together but they are very distinctly separate. Sometimes the "best government is the one that governs least" (Paine or Jefferson I think). Perhaps them not doing much to change is a good thing even stable rigid rules are better than constantly changing ones.
Getting back to the markets the access if they exploit their Eurasian consortium market is interesting if it works. Oil and Gas can't go down due to threats of money printing, once those threats subside (ergo people go bankrupt) the prices can collapse but not before.
Ukraine/Moldova/Georgia and all other immediate neighbors have an incentive to create external pressure for leverage which is understandable. Everyone tries to get the best deal possible economic or geopolitical, or some other realpolitik. Perfectly normal. You win some you loose some.
I don't think they are going for the western model, I think they are going for a model that works for them. Also a lot of emphasis is placed on saving technological know-how at the expense of consumers. Ergo machinbuilding/design for air/sea/land vehicles, and other aspects. Overall their major problem is having convertibility of the currency once they go fully floating on the currency internal industry will have to adapt which I think they have been a little but not enough.
Originally from Sochi, Russia.
Russia is heavily depend on commodity, given today's oil pricing remain high and great demand for wheal and coal, even at a slump, it still has a strong base to operate under.Of course if their ecomony should slump - and it probably will - his crown is not so secure
The Chinese/Japanese/Korean would more than happy to buy all the oil it can produce -- just look at the way they fight over the Far East pipelines. Having huge land resources with limited population might not be too bad, as long as they realize that the dream of becoming the second Soviet Union is nolonger applicable.
the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all -- Joan Robinson
IMO, Thinking that these two men (Putin & Medlev) are the very best to run the country that pretty much they have a monopoly on its controlling chairs is just foolish.
What are the odds in those millions and millions people that these two are the brightest to continue playing the monopoly game.
If it comes crashing down around them in the future, they will have deserved it for being so short sighted when the country should come first, not the political schemes.
Last edited by Dreadnought; 29 Nov 11, at 05:26.
Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.
Russia is definitely trying to re-emerge as a globally significant player. As of today they are heavily dependent on the energy and raw material exports, but they have tried and are trying to diversify their economy. The ROSNANO project is one of the most ambitious and well funded projects in the field of nanotechnology (assets ~10 billion dollars, involved in hundreds of projects in the field) and another example is their project near Moscow where they are trying to establish their own Silicon Valley with help of many big players from the West.
Besides these, they already have areas of economy that far exceed the Soviet era capabilities prime example being their agriculture.. Russia is today a major grain exporter while Soviet Union were often dependent on imports and the agricultural sector is growing fast.
They are also becoming significant producer of many industrial products (albeit often with foreign tech/investments) like cars, civilian aircraft and medical equipment. Despite of problems and challenges, they are definitely moving forward. I live in region of Finland that is one of the favourite destinations for Russian tourists: and the rise of well doing middle class is very, very obvious. A decade ago mainly rich people came here, but now the vast majority is made of ordinary urban Russians.
In my opinion the economy is not their weakest link, but other factors that might cripple the economy and then cause the collapse of their plans. Not in any specific order they include demographics, corruption and institutional problems, all of them might give the blow that causes the collapse of the house of cards.
The military reform is very interesting and I find it almost funny how certain people tend to crap their pants when they hear about the Russian plans. I think that explaining this from Finnish perspective should be revealing.
- When we look at their military budget, we are talking about relatively (GDP-wise) and absolutely low numbers (comparable to countries like UK, France..). And I have to remind you that during the 1990s there was time when our Western neighbour spent pretty much as much money on military as our eastern. They have long march before the damages caused by underfunding and general neglect have been repaired.
- When they boast with their ambitious fast reaction brigade plans and the Westerners freak out, I am inclined to compare that to the 1990s. Or Soviet era. Then they had aprox. one division for each planned brigade. That is quite a drop. And we must remember that we are talking about plans. Plans & Russia, you know..
- When certain folks freak out due to their new missile units, it makes me wonder what they might have been thinking during the Soviet time. And have you ever checked the numbers? We are talking about dozens missiles per battalion. Very few battalions. Those are substitute for decent air force, not a strategic tool for massive conventional war. Since the time of Tochkas Finland has been forced to plan according to fact that the Russians can strike any place within minutes if they want to. But the figure for those any places is low and the missile supply exhausted fast. As far as I know, Russia has only one facility where they can even serially produce solid fuel missile engines. That is why they threatened to send new missiles to Kaliningrad while they were not in fact talking about new missiles, but about sending units that were originally planned to go to Chinese border to West..
- In any modern war air force is essential. Look at their war in Georgia. They had to send strategical bomber flown by instructors to do recon mission. Georgians had no fighters, yet their Su-25s were able to fly til the end of the war. Russians were unable to suppress Georgian air defences. They made it thanks to brutal force, any well equipped and trained foe would have caused a bloodbath in the air.
More to follow..
I tend to agree with the above.There is quite a contrast between what the Russians are and how are they perceived.
One thing often forgotten is that Russian diplomacy is and always was a more potent force than its military.In that regard they play very well with the cards they have.
The most important aspect is that Russia no longer exports revolution .There is more prospect of everyone losing their shirt because of western lunatics than of Russian policy and secret police.
Russia's rise is also in our interest because most of its real strenght will be deployed South and East rather than West.That's where the real long term threats lies both for us and for them.This is 1941 no more and all of Eastern Europe need to get over the communist unfortunate legacy that is associated with Russia.Though it doesn't mean we should trust Russia completely or shouldn't deal with it from a position of strength.
Those who know don't speak
russia, was, is and will be the only country that is an existential threat to my country. i saw somewhere a list that had around 40 military conflicts with them through history and i donīt think were done yet.
aside from that, there is IMO a real need stop bullshitting russians.
stop being PC and say as the things really are - that they are not best friends forever, but business partners for as long as itīs profitable (that applies mutually, but russians have at least said it aloud); that west is willing to accept things that no-one really is.
prime example is the NATO-Russia partnership- after 20 years of co-operation, friendly back-patting etc. the most important things have not been cleared : for NATO partnership and equality means that there are plenty of co-operation mechanisms and no side has a veto on other guys business. For Russia partnership and equality means they have the right to lead the NATO as equals amongst others, that they are on board of CEO-s so to speak.
Reset buttons or not - if even so simple thing, as the idea that someone has right to lead an organization they cannot be even member of, because they cannot fulfill itīs membership demands, has not been cleared, there will be always disapointment on one or other side.
nice people that promise more than their goverments/society is willing to fulfill, can and have given impressions that west is more willing to accept Russia than it really is.
the thing about doing business with russia always comes down to this- your success is not determined by your product or competence, but by your political connections. conflicts of interest, corruption, just simple blackmailing, bribery - itīs integral part of the system. and whoever you are, BP or Shell, you can always be musceled out of your business, if you donīt follow Kremlinīs guidance. it is and will be in nearer future, a relatively high-risk business zone.big money can be made, but big losses are always lurking on the horizon too.
Oh, and Mustavaris - you left out the Russiaīs infrastructure and itīs deterioration. of all this oil bounty AFAIK way, way too little has trickled down to street repairs/ improved isolation for water pipes/central heating/house renovation/hospitals etc.
sure their industrial output is getting bigger but AFAIK they, as car-producers are outproduced by Slovakia, and to look at their indegenous cars for example....
(reminds me a old joke - Japanese car-makers delegation sees Soviet Unionīs famous off-road van UAZ-452 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia īīunbelievable,what lenghts people are ready to go in order just to avoid building roads!īī )
If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today
Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok
Fascinating what a lack of border with Russia does to people.Also fascinating is how people who made Stalin himself bow to their wishes think of Russia.
Those who know don't speak
We'll still be squaring off against Russia in the Far East, Central Asia, and in the Caucasus to a lesser extent. No one in their right mind wants to see a resurrection of the Russian empire in Central Asia, especially.
thereīs a saying īwhere you stand,depends where you sitī, or something like this. i for one have no idea why people are getting so upset about China and itīs rise .... /irony/
If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today
Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok
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