LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With QuoteI would not be so assured. Given the evergrowing Chinese oil interests in the Persian Gulf I think the Iran affair will be the first in which China wipes the West’s eye.Originally Posted by Dreadnought
Rastagir,Iran is doing the same mistake Germany did by entering the naval arms race with the British prior to WW1.It thinks that an absolute increase in its arsenal equals a relative increase in its international arena.The BMD signals that this is not the case,without resorting to traditional MAD as the first instrument.Iran's power doesn't justify that.As for the regime being afraid,I might ask,of what?There are no more open threats of invasion,it is obvious that public opinion will not support a gratuitous war in Iran.Iran has backers in the UN,the Americans are bogged in A-stan,so who's threatening Iran right now?On top of that,Iran's conventional and irregular forces are large and much better trained and equipped than the Iraqis and Talibans,the country is larger etc...
So,I'm not saying that Iranian are evil or childish,I'm saying their leadership makes a very big mistake and they are gambling the future of their nation.
Those who know don't speak
I would not be so assured. Given the evergrowing Chinese oil interests in the Persian Gulf I think the Iran affair will be the first in which China wipes the West’s eye.
I am not sure about that. I mean, as Dreadnought says "Iran will not be allowed to have nukes one or the other way" and I am getting the feeling that this is the prevailing opinion (at least among Americans and Israeli's). The USA may be locked in two conflicts right now but still has the capability of performing an attack on Iran (provided that it will remain at that and not another money-draining nation-building, I don't know if such a scenario is possible). Israel, on the other hand, has shown that it can and will act unilaterally if it feels threatened and has an impressive record of doing so successfully.
It is obvious that Iran feels more comfortable that it would 8 years ago, when the US hadn't had two conflicts on it's plate. However, if Iran has the breathing space to develop nukes is now; when the US is tied down, has a president who isn't crazy about starting another conflict and internationally countries like China and Russia do not perceive Iran as a threat but as another diversion to tie down the US and buy them even more breathing space for them to develop.
To sum it up, yes, Iran has a lot less to fear than it did 8 years ago. But, still, Israel is a force to consider and the US is also capable of destroying the infrastructure of the country (and not trying to rebuilt it, as it does in A-stan or Iran). From their point of view, they have both breathing space to pursuit the building of nukes and a good reason to do so.
*It wont make one bit of difference if China disagrees, Clandestine Nuclear arms programs trumps all importance of oil. No matter if China disagrees or not its not going to happen (Irans program) and China certainly wont go to war over Iran keeping her program. She wont even go to war over Taiwan. The US has zero to loose, Iran stands to loose much and China if she went to war for Iran would loose billions in US debt retrival. I think they would rather have their money and interests then backing some vile crazy regime bent on Israels destruction. Iran may not think the US is paying attention, but she is very much so and so are the Israeli's. Syria's lesson was only a hint of whats to come in the near future.
Last edited by Dreadnought; 11 Feb 10, at 14:32.
Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.
Methinks you're right on that one, Dread. Obama will sit and wring his hads, and Israel will act....Syria's lesson was only a hint of whats to come in the near future.
China doesn’t want a nuclear Iran but even less so she wants an Iran under American control.
Time will show.
*America doesnt want to "control" Iran, if she gets attacked for creating a nuclear weapon we certainly wont be rebuilding infastructure, give aid or anything else. Ley China and Russia do it for their friends. Furthermore Iraq is not under "American control" either they are under their own elected government and Iran surely cannot say that now can they?
Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.
*Looking more and more that way and yet Israel will get all of the blame.
Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Share this thread with friends: