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Reply With QuoteSuch a war wouln't take much time, I guess.
For such a scenario to happen,our international order must fall apart first.
Those who know don't speak
Such a war wouln't take much time, I guess.
It isn't whether or not such a war will take much time or less. It is about showing to the world that two NATO members have unresolved issues (and they do) and that NATO as a whole doesn't guarantee peace even within it's midst
I repeat once more, this is NOT a thread that deals with the consequences for Greece and Turkey but for NATO. What impact will it have to the other members, to the would-be members. To the small countries that might see Greece lose territory and not being protected. To the larger and more powerful nations who might see Turkey being forced to step down and have it's hands tied, despite the might of it's army, making consessions where normally wouldn't be any. and whether, or not, in the end the alliance will survive, whatever the outcome.
The Turko-Grecian disputes are not my field of expertise. Just something I am aware of casually and have looked into from time to time. In fact I think one of the old 'who would win' threads was how I originally stumbled upon the WAB... I have friends on both sides of the issue, so I wouldn't like to see things get worse than they already are for certain.
I think someone said earlier that it would depend on who is the 'aggressor' or even who is perceived as the aggressor more than anything.
Not too sure how Russian-Turkish relations are but I don't think they they are all that friendly really, again I am no expert. So, if you asked me and this hypothetical thing went off and it was Turkey that ultimately was left holding the bag on the aggressor status, it seems to me that maybe the Russians try to pick a fight with the Turks, NATO would sort of be forced to line up behind Greece, diplomacy would prevail or escalate (flip your coin).
Greece is the aggressor? The Greeks might find support from the Germans of all people (again my disclaimer above casually interested) how that affects NATO's response I couldn't say. But I think the case for a united NATO response with Greece as the aggressor is a bit more questionable. Would it break NATO up? Not sure, it seems to me that any country without a dog in the fight would be obligated by treaty to line up on the side of Turkey, and what if the Russians decided this was a time to go after Turkey? All the more reason for more NATO countries to line up behind Turkey.
Now if Russia for some insane reason wanted to join NATO and Turkey was the aggressor, I imagine NATO would come out stronger and with the same number of member countries (Turkey out, Russia in) And if Greece was the aggressor, and Russia for some insane reason made a move on Turkey, I think NATO would ultimately come out stronger but with one less member country... But then what do I know?
On a completely off topic thought, I see the seeds of a brand-spanking new Russian conspiracy theory!
How far off base do you think I am?
Last edited by pate; 03 Aug 09, at 03:38.
If Bosphorus was closed and Russia couldn't ship grain they would cut shipments of gas to Turkey in retaliation. (assuming a prolonged war)
Nato could fracture ergo, Euro countries could opt out and recreate a Euro defense system that could opt into Nato as a block. Which is what is slowly happening with France leaning that way. Lots of reasons for that mainly domination of the defense market and squeezing out US defense firms, as well as, independent foreign policy of the U.S.
The war would amount to nothing more or less but the international/political shifts could be very significant. It could create 2 Western blocks with British/North American/Anzac block and a Euro block, each with a different set of prerogatives in regions. This would recreate a multi-polar world almost overnight one without dominance by any block.
Originally from Sochi, Russia.
If I am not mistaken, France is trying to get back inside NATO and play a more dynamic role.
However, a "Western Block" with two different faces is much more likely the way I see it and that was something that was shown in the Iraq War. The European Union (under the France-Germany axis) prefers to work as a soft power, applying pressure through it's economy whether the US along with Britain prefer the more direct way of conflict. But whether this is enough to split NATO by itself is another story entirely.
And it doesn't have to be a prolonged war for the damage to be out of proportion. Back in 1994 during the Imia crisis Greece and Turkey came dangerously close to war and it was the US intervension that stopped it. But today, when US is dealing with two open fronts and faces an economy crisis might not be able to project that kind of power. And if I know my Greeks (and Turks also) noone will back down easily.
sorry for late responding, i was at Izmir-Cesme spent a week on the beach(unfortunately with the family :(:(Originally Posted by Mihais
)
for the Balkans:
i wouldnt give a credit to the Balkan countries joining a hypotetical war alongside with Greece.
i believe that the hate you mentioned against Turks would not be sufficient to join a war.
what happened in Balkans during the Ottoman Empire is another issue which must be taken in an objective way.
i do not believe also that the Romanians would join a war against Turkey alongside with Greece.
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
in such war the attitude of EU would highly attached to the Russian attitude considering the gas pipelines.
can EU afford to counter Russians in favor of Turks despite the cutting of Russian gas?
i wouldnt bet on it.
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
Such a war could see Turkey become the threat that ties the rest of Europe together. Would make the Russians and Europeans a lot closer and almost force them to work together. Would be a disaster for US influence. The absolute worse case for the US is an EU that pulls away from the US and closer to Russia forming a true European superpower.
The best part of repentance is the sin
Turkey is not threat like the ww2's Nazi Germany. so such alliance is unlikely to happen for me.
as an addition Russians would not form such a superpower if they could not lead it. and Germany&France would not allow Russians to lead it.
so i believe Russians would behave in an opportunist way.
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.
I somewhat agree. I can see France and Germany seeking closer ties to Russia but I can't really see Russia wanting to be "just another member". Also, both Russia and Turkey (at least the way I perceive it) are a little too aggressive for EU tastes.
On the other hand, Turkey is fast becoming a regional power and I don't know how Russia likes that. EU (or, at least, western Europe) is trying to minimize US influence (NATO has lost it's main purpose after the dissolution of the USSR) and is just not willing or ready for new adventures in the Middle East and beyond. Maybe an alliance will be forged out (not nessesarily against Turkey, a new Greco-Turkish war might be just the cause, not the true problem)
On the other hand again, Turkey's double identity, as a country of Muslims and as a secular state, might give second thoughts about intervention. Noone in Europe wants another "Christians vs Muslims" on their hands...
I didn't even think of the Bosphorus. Now that it has been mentioned, wouldn't it be more likely that it was the Hellespont would be closed by a conflict? I hope I'm not nit-picking here...
Anyhow, nit-picking aside; I don't think there is much love lost between the Ukrainians and the Russians.
Weren't some subtle invitations/propositions/enticements made towards Ukraine for membership in NATO or something?
I may be misremembering, but the whole Bosphorus/Hellespont thing got me thinking about Black Sea politics(?)
The more I think about this more unlikely it seems, as a hypothetical mind-experiment it is interesting, but the variables seem a bit terrifying...
Could almost be the start of WWIII from where I sit, of course I know very little about it...
I'm enjoying this thread quite a bit.
cyppok, Big K, chakos, Rastagir good stuff, y'all!
It very well could start WW3, when you think about the politics and animosities between the countries involved a war between Greece and Turkey would be terrifying.
You have the religious aspect. Christian/Muslim or even more importantly Orthodoxy/Islam.
Then you have the modern day central/southern European politics mixed into the fray, the combination would be a disaster.
Not everything is US centric, although it would obviously drag the US in if European, Turkish and Russian armored divisions where trading blows.. Theres too much at stake and also too many Europeans have nightmares still of a belligerant powerful muslim country to the south. Its been the European boogyman for 1500 years.
The best part of repentance is the sin
It is. As a matter of fact, I think that one of Greece's war plans includes the closing of the straits in order to prevent any Turkish Navy intervention. And I know that Russia isn't going to like this one bit...
I may be misremembering, but the whole Bosphorus/Hellespont thing got me thinking about Black Sea politics(?) [/QUOTE]
I think that Ukraine is eligible for NATO membership. Which, in my book, is kind of stupid. It's like NATO rubs it in Russia's face and saying "here we are at your threshold and we are waving our big guns around". Russia is bound to respond (and I think this is the reason behind the Russia-Georgia conflict a year ago) because she feels threatened (not with good reason, but when the US is raising an eyebrow for two russian submarines outside their national waters, imagine what the russians think with bases outside their's...). Wars have begun for less.
It is. Turkey has a dual identity, both as a secular state and as a muslim country. I am not really sure how the muslim world perceives Turkey: as another muslim state, and a powerful one, who will defend muslims everywhere, or as a traitor who is part of NATO and an ally of whatever is wrong with the West.
I am not saying that Turkey is the problem, because it is not. At least, not the Turkish people. But both Greece and Turkey have problems with each other and their neighbours. Both are members of NATO, Greece is part of EU, Turkey is the threshold to the East, both are surrounded by conflicts waiting to happen. And they might be the first domino that falls.
Glad to be of service!
It's not about hate,it's about realpolitik.Again,I say that for such a scenario to happen the major world powers must be busy with other things and present treaties and alliances turn to dust.My idea is not that NATO will be broken be a Greece-Turkey conflict.NATO must lose it's meaning first and a true multipolar world must arise before any major war starts in the Balkans.
Regarding the Ottomans,it's not what happened that matters,it's about the popular belief of what happened.I guess there are plenty of different stories and I'd love to read some views from ''the other side''.
Those who know don't speak
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