Thread: NATO member Turkey and Russia ink strategic alliance

Afew weeks ago the Turkish President His Excellency Dr. Abdullah Gul, travelled to Russia at the invitation of His Excellency Mr. Dmitry Medvedev, President of the Russian Federation.

Much to the dismay of Washington, NATO member Turkey and the Russian Federation signed a Joint Strategic Declaration. The declaration included but was not limited to:

- US $80 billion Nuclear "Power" Deal
- Uranium enrichment plant for own nuclear power plants
- Transfer of Military technology and hardware
- Closer Economic and Social ties and for further development of relations

What do you believe the implications of such move by Turkey will be on the NATO alliance?

Turkish President Discusses $80Bln Nuclear Power Deal
16 February 2009
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/articl.../42/374549.htm

President Dmitry Medvedev met with Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul in Moscow on Friday to discuss energy cooperation, including talks for Russia to build and run a $20 billion nuclear plant in Turkey.

Turkey approved technical aspects of the bid and is reviewing a 15-year power supply contract, potentially worth $60 billion, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said Friday. Reactor builder Atomstroiexport is a partner with power trader Inter RAO and Park Teknik, Turkey's biggest private coal producer, in the bid.

The countries are "interested in developing ties in the sphere of electricity and nuclear energy," Medvedev told reporters after a meeting Gul.

Russia outpaced Germany as Turkey's top trade partner last year as business between the countries rose eightfold since 2002 to $34 billion. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin put the figure at $32 billion while meeting with Gul, Interfax reported.

Power demand in Turkey last year grew the most worldwide after China. Half of Turkey's power plants burn gas, of which 95 percent is imported, and the country is looking to decrease its dependence on the fuel.

Turkey's government is seeking to fix a price at which it will buy electricity from the country's first nuclear plant, and Atomstroiexport has reduced its initial offer on power sales, Shmatko said. The company asked for 15 cents per kilowatt hour this month, compared with the 21.16 cents it offered initially.

The plant will take 10 to 12 years to build and will operate four 1,200-megawatt reactors, said Shmatko, a former chief executive of Atomstroiexport.

Atomstroiexport and Inter RAO are units of state nuclear corporation Rosatom.

(Bloomberg, MT)

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Turkey considers uranium enrichment for own nuclear power plants
RIA Novosti

15/01/2008 16:21 ANKARA, January 15 (RIA Novosti) - Turkey may consider building a uranium enrichment center as part of an ambitious plan to develop the country's nuclear potential, a national newspaper said on Tuesday.

Turkey is preparing to issue a public tender for the construction of its first nuclear power plant and plans to build at least two nuclear reactors by 2015.

"The initiative [to build a uranium enrichment center] is strategically important for the whole world and for Turkey's future," the Hurriyet newspaper said.

The issue may be on the agenda of a nuclear energy meeting in Istanbul on Friday. In addition to representatives from the International Atomic Energy Agency, top-level officials from the United States, Russia, France and the U.K. are expected to attend the meeting.

The development of its own nuclear power industry was one of the priorities outlined for the country's government in Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's address to parliament following his election victory in July last year.

Turkey has been enjoying rapid economic growth for the past five years and is becoming increasingly energy hungry. Some analysts say that the country could soon face an energy shortfall if it continues to rely on traditional energy sources.

Turkey has limited fossil fuel reserves. According to various sources, it produces only 50,000 barrels of oil per day, but consumes over 700,000, while its coal reserves are of a poor quality.

Meanwhile, Turkey's interest in uranium enrichment may allay U.S. concerns over growing nuclear ambitions among Middle East countries, primarily Iran.

With Washington's blessing, Turkey, a traditional U.S. ally and a NATO member, might become one of the key suppliers of nuclear fuel for Muslim countries if they decide to build their own nuclear power plants.

"If Turkey, as a NATO member, becomes an important regional center for uranium enrichment, it would be beneficial not only for the U.S., but also for the countries in the region, because they would be able to buy fuel for their future nuclear reactors from Turkey," Hurriyet said.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/li...anovosti01.htm

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’Turkey to purchase weapons from Russia’

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/d...c/11025327.asp

RUSSIA - Russian Defense Export Company said Turkey was preparing to purchase weapons from the country, Russian news agency Ria Novosti reported yesterday.

The company said it had a weapon stock of $20 billion and Turkey was among the countries interested in purchasing some of it, along with China, India and Greece. Turkey has initiated efforts to purchase missile systems, armored vehicles and anti-tank ammunition.

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The Geopolitical Great Game:
Turkey and Russia Moving Closer

by F. William Engdahl

Global Research,

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=12466

Despite the problems of the ruble and the weak oil price in recent months for the Russian economy, the Russian Government is pursuing a very active foreign policy strategy. Its elements focus on countering the continuing NATO encirclement policy of Washington, with often clever diplomatic initiatives on its Eurasian periphery. Taking advantage of the cool relations between Washington and longtime NATO ally, Turkey, Moscow has now invited Turkish President Abdullah Gul to a four day state visit to discuss a wide array of economic and political cooperation issues.

In addition to opening to Turkey, a vital transit route for natural gas to western Europe, Russia is also working to firm an economic space with Belarus and other former Soviet republics to firm its alliances. Moscow delivered a major blow to the US military encirclement strategy in Central Asia when it succeeded earlier this month in convincing Kyrgystan, with the help of major financial aid, to cancel US military airbase rights at Manas, a major blow to US escalation plans in Afghanistan.

In short, Moscow is demonstrating it is far from out of the new Great Game for influence over Eurasia.

Warmer Turkish relations

The Government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has shown increasing impatience with not only Washington policies in the Middle East, but also the refusal of the European Union to seriously consider Turkey’s bid to join the EU. In the situation, it’s natural that Turkey would seek some counterweight to what had been since the Cold War overwhelming US influence in Turkish politics. Russia’s Putin and Medvedev have no problem opening such a dialogue, much to Washington’s dismay.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a four-day visit to the Russian Federation from February 12 to 15, where he met with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and also travelled to Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, where he discussed joint investments. Gul was accompanied by his state minister responsible for foreign trade, and Minister of Energy, as well as a large delegation of Turkish businessmen. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan joined the delegation.

Visit to Tatarstan

The fact that Gul’s Moscow visit also included a stop in Tatarstan, the largest autonomous republic in Russian Federation whose population mainly consists of Muslim Tatar Turks, is a sign how much relations between Ankara and Moscow have improved in recent months as Turkey has cooled to Washington foreign policy. In previous years, Moscow was convinced that Turkey was trying to establish Pan-Turanism in the Caucasus and Central Asia and inside the Russian Federation, a huge concern in Moscow. Today clearly Turkish relations with Turk entities inside the Russian Federation are not considered suspicious as it was once, confirming a new mood of mutual trust.

Russia elevated Gul’s trip from the previously announced status of an ‘official visit’ to a ‘state visit,’ the highest level of state protocol, indicating the value Moscow now attaches to Turkey. Gul and Medvedev signed a joint declaration announcing their commitment to deepening mutual friendship and multi-dimensional cooperation. The declaration mirrors a previous ‘Joint Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship and Multidimensional Partnership,’ signed during a 2004 visit by then-President Putin.

Turkish-Russian economic ties have greatly expanded over the past decade, with trade volume reaching $32 billion in 2008, making Russia Turkey’s number one partner. Given this background, bilateral economic ties were a major item on Gul’s agenda and both leaders expressed their satisfaction with the growing commerce between their countries.

Cooperation in energy is the major area. Turkey’s gas and oil imports from Russia account for most of the trade volume. Russian press reports indicate that the two sides are interested in improving cooperation in energy transportation lines carrying Russian gas to European markets through Turkey, the project known as Blue Stream-2. Previously Ankara had been cool to the proposal. The recent completion of the Russian Blue Stream gas pipeline under Black Sea increased Turkey’s dependence on Russian natural gas from 66 percent up to 80 percent. Furthermore, Russia is beginning to see Turkey as a transit country for its energy resources rather than simply an export market, the significance of Blue Stream 2.

Russia is also eager to play a major part in Turkey’s attempts to diversify its energy sources. A Russian-led consortium won the tender for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear plant recently, but as the price offered for electricity was above world prices, the future of the project, awaiting parliamentary approval, remains unclear. Prior to Gul’s Moscow trip, the Russian consortium submitted a revised offer, reducing the price by 30 percent. If this revision is found legal under the tender rules, the positive mood during Gul’s trip may indicate the Turkish government is ready to give the go-ahead for the project.

Russia’s market also plays a major role for Turkish overseas investments and exports. Russia is one of the main customers for Turkish construction firms and a major destination for Turkish exports. Similarly, millions of Russian tourists bring significant revenues to Turkey every year.

Importantly, Turkey and Russia may start to use the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble in foreign trade, which could increase Turkish exports to Russia, as well as weakening dependence on dollar mediation.

Post-Cold War tensions reduced

However the main message of Gul’s visit was the fact of the development of stronger political ties between the two. Both leaders repeated the position that, as the two major powers in the area, cooperation between Russia and Turkey was essential to regional peace and stability. That marked a dramatic change from the early 1990’s after the collapse of the Soviet Union when Washington encouraged Ankara to move into historically Ottoman regions of the former Soviet Union to counter Russia’s influence.

In the 1990’s in sharp contrast to the tranquillity of the Cold War era, talk of regional rivalries, revived ‘Great Games’ in Eurasia, confrontations in the Caucasus and Central Asia were common. Turkey was becoming once more Russia’s natural geopolitical rival as in the 19th Century. Turkey’s quasi-alliance with Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia until recently led Moscow to view Turkey as a formidable rival. The regional military balance developed in favor of Turkey in Black Sea and the Southern Caucasus. After the disintegration of the USSR, the Black Sea became a de facto ‘NATO lake.’ As Russia and Ukraine argued over the division of the Black Sea fleet and status of Sevastopol, the Black Sea became an area for NATO’S Partnership for Peace exercises.

By contrast, at the end of the latest Moscow visit, Gul declared, ‘Russia and Turkey are neighboring countries that are developing their relations on the basis of mutual confidence. I hope this visit will in turn give a new character to our relations.’ Russia praised Turkey’s diplomatic initiatives in the region.

Medvedev commended Turkey’s actions during the Russian-Georgian war last summer and Turkey’s subsequent proposal for the establishment of a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). The Russian President said the Georgia crisis had shown their ability to deal with such problems on their own without the involvement of outside powers, meaning Washington. Turkey had proposed the CSCP, bypassing Washington and not seeking transatlantic consensus on Russia. Since then, Turkey has indicated its intent to follow a more independent foreign policy.

The Russian aim is to use its economic resources to counter the growing NATO encirclement, made severe by the Washington decision to place missile and radar bases in Poland and the Czech Republic aimed at Moscow. To date the Obama Administration has indicated it will continue the Bush ‘missile defense’ policy. Washington also just agreed to place US Patriot missiles in Poland, clearly not aimed at Germany, but at Russia.

Following Gul’s visit, some press in Turkey described Turkish-Russian relations as a ‘strategic partnership,’ a label traditionally used for Turkish-American relations. Following Gül’s visit, Medyedev will go to Turkey to follow up the issues with concrete cooperation proposals. The Turkish-Russian cooperation is a further indication of how the once overwhelming US influence in Eurasia has been eroded by the events of recent US foreign policy in the region.

Washington is waking up to find it confronted with Sir Halford Mackinder’s ‘worst nightmare.’ Mackinder, the ‘father’ of 20th Century British geopolitics, stressed the importance of Britain (and after 1945 USA) preventing strategic cooperation among the great powers of Eurasia.

F. William Engdahl is author of A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order (Pluto Press) and Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Agenda of Genetic Manipulation (www.globalresearch.ca ). His new book, Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order (Third Millennium Press) is doe for release in late Spring 2009.

He may be reached via his website:

www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net

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Closer to Russia, farther from the West?
by EMRE USLU & ÖNDER AYTAÇ

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/de...ay&link=167034

President Abdullah Gül's visit to Russia may indicate a new era in Turkey-Russia relations. Dailies reported that Gül's visit to Russia could extend Turkey-Russia relations beyond economic activities.

If the reports are true, both sides agreed to establish relations on military and technological cooperation. It is no secret that the Turkish military has long been trying to end its dependence on US technology. Instead of buying technology from abroad, Turkey wants to produce it within the country.

Perhaps the real motivation behind the agreement with Russia is Turkey's long-lasting effort to bring technology to Turkey and to produce key weapons systems and aircraft in Turkey. Reports on Gül's visit do not indicate that both sides have talked about any level of political cooperation on international issues.

However, international communities may interpret that the visit itself carries a political message about Turkey's intention to establish better relations with Russia on every level, including economic, political and cultural cooperation. Furthermore, when a state deals with Russia, it can hardly escape Russia's political and economic influence. Not to mention that increasing economic relations with Russia will eventually lead to political cooperation. Knowing that Turkey is pretty much dependent on Russian gas supplies, if Turkey's dependency on Russia is extended to the level of military technology, nuclear power and space technology, Turkey in the future may find itself in a position to support Russia on certain political issues.

In addition, Russia under Putin's leadership has been pursuing a foreign policy strategy that requires uniquely skilled diplomats to figure out what comes next after taking the initial step. There is little doubt that Turkey's foreign policy perspective hasn't been shifted from the West to the East, but Turkey's domestic and foreign policy limitations do not allow it to make whatever foreign policy decisions it wants to make. In terms of domestic problems, i.e., Kurdish problems, neo-nationalist problems and economic difficulties, Turkey has to be close to the EU and the US to find better solutions. In addition, Turkey's foreign policy engagements with the EU calmed its domestic problems. Any sign of breaking away from the EU would worsen its domestic politics.

It is still too early to claim that Gül's visit to Moscow might be a sign that Turkey is breaking away from the EU; however, since 2007, because of lack of interest, the Turkish prime minister and president have almost forgotten how to go to Europe, creating an incentive to question whether Turkey is breaking away from the Western camp.

In terms of Turkey-US relations, Turkey's dependence on US support on every level -- including cooperation in fighting terrorism and political, economic and military cooperation -- limits Turkey's ability to be a dance partner with Russia. Because of the March 1, 2003 crisis between Turkey and the US, Turkey's every foreign policy step is under the radar of the US.

Concerning Russia, the US's first priority in this region is to prevent Russian influence in the south Caucasus, Turkey and the Black Sea region. Given that Russia and Iran have close relations, the US does not want Turkey to establish relations with Russia that resemble Russia-Iran relations. Therefore, from the US perspective, Turkey's relations with Russia should be limited to economic ties and energy dependency. Anything beyond this, i.e., establishing relations to transfer Russian military technology to Turkey, could alarm the US government.

Although the details of the cooperation to transfer Russian military technology are unknown, the symbolic meaning of having such relations is bad enough to irritate US foreign policy makers.
[*] Dr. Emre Uslu is an analyst working with the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. Önder Aytaç is an associate professor at Gazi University's department of communications and works with the Security Studies Institute in Ankara.


16 February 2009, Monday

EMRE USLU & ÖNDER AYTAÇ[*]

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