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Thread: Russia warns Ukraine it will retaliate over Nato

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    Russia warns Ukraine it will retaliate over Nato

    Russia warns Ukraine it will retaliate over Nato

    By Anne Penketh, Diplomatic Editor
    Thursday, 11 September 2008

    Russia has given its most explicit warning to date of the kind of punishment that Ukraine can expect if the former Soviet republic continues along the path towards membership of Nato.

    "The expansion of Nato is seen in Russia as a hostile action. We will never accept this. We cannot block expansion of Nato but we can take measures to ensure our security," the Russian ambassador to Britain, Yuri Fedotov, said in an interview.

    Ukraine's pro-Western government of President Viktor Yushchenko is campaigning to take his country into the EU and Nato. Russia's fierce opposition to Nato expansion on its borders has prompted fears of a possible military conflict with Ukraine that would dwarf the war in Georgia.

    The envoy pointed out that Ukraine – a country of 46 million people – and neighbouring Russia were tightly linked historically, culturally and economically. "The borders are virtually open," he said.

    "Should this country become a Nato member... it means that we should take some measures to protect ourselves, and this may have an impact on this multitude of relations, ties and connections. It might not only affect trade and economic relations but also people-to-people contacts," he said. The ambassador would not go into further details but said: "I hope that common sense will prevail and that Nato countries will think twice."

    Mr Yushchenko's own government is divided on the issue and collapsed last week as a result of tensions over the Georgia war.

    The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has already served notice that Ukraine faces a 100 per cent increase in gas prices from next January. But the obvious flashpoint for any conflict would be over the Crimean Peninsula, the home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

    Asked whether Russia would take military action against Ukraine, Mr Fedotov stressed that "actually Russia had no plans to take such action in Georgia". "But this action was precipitated by this stupid military intervention against the peaceful population in Tskhinvali."

    He added: "I hope that people would take some lessons from what happened in South Ossetia."

    Turning to relations with Britain, he blamed the British Government for the deterioration in ties since the expulsion of Russian diplomats in July 2007 over the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko. He said Britain's decision last week to bar military pipers from a Red Square festival was "awkward" but unlikely to cause a further downturn.

    Russia warns Ukraine it will retaliate over Nato - Europe, World - The Independent
    Russia is in a real belligerent mood.

    Now what?


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

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    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    OOOOOOhhhhhh! Scary talk time again.
    And the lies persist as usual. I for one would love to see these people hooked up to 50,000 volt lie detectors.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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    Letting Ukraine join NATO is a bad idea.

    I have long been a proponent of leaving Ukraine as one of the buffer states between the NATO nations and Russia.

    If the Russians decide to escalate this into a crisis, Ukraine will be abandoned by the West to fend off Russia and then, demoralized, and filled with resentment, a pro-Russian policy may emerge in Ukrainian politics that will turn it towards the Russian orbit.

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    Equilibrium Reply

    "Ukraine will be abandoned by the West to fend off Russia..."

    If NATOized, you assume an attack, abandonment, and demoralization leading to a pro-Russian Ukraine emerging.

    For these assumptions you'd not offer NATO membership. All are built around the implications of a vascillating and uncommitted NATO.

    If so, where are NATO's fault-lines? Supposedly, we're learning where Russia's exist. What's an immutable line of demarcation for NATO-the Bug River in Poland? The Baltic States? Where would NATO tanks roll east to defend? Would they roll east at all? Would they roll ANYWHERE?

    Wasn't there a problem between Poland, France, and Great Britain about this time sixty-nine years ago? Something about reinforcements from the west that didn't show or opening up a western front?
    "This aggression will not stand, man!"
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    Quote Originally Posted by S-2 View Post
    "Ukraine will be abandoned by the West to fend off Russia..."

    If NATOized, you assume an attack, abandonment, and demoralization leading to a pro-Russian Ukraine emerging.

    For these assumptions you'd not offer NATO membership. All are built around the implications of a vascillating and uncommitted NATO.

    If so, where are NATO's fault-lines? Supposedly, we're learning where Russia's exist. What's an immutable line of demarcation for NATO-the Bug River in Poland? The Baltic States? Where would NATO tanks roll east to defend? Would they roll east at all? Would they roll ANYWHERE?

    Wasn't there a problem between Poland, France, and Great Britain about this time sixty-nine years ago? Something about reinforcements from the west that didn't show or opening up a western front?
    Yes, yes the was. But the US was not one of those parties. Russia remembers the US risking its own survival to save not just Europe but Israel. Add America to the mix and the equation changes.

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    Zraver Reply

    Not entirely. Do we defend eastern Europe with an ambivalent western Europe that opts out and is unwilling/unprepared to even assist our engaged forces?

    Do we defend eastern Europe with an openly opposed western Europe standing between us?

    Western Europe looks like France on the eve of W.W. II to me these days. Russia sounds more and more like Germany in 1939- terribly aggrieved and denied their rightful place in the sun, it seems.

    This looks like a familiar refrain.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!"
    Jeff Lebowski

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    I believe that NAtO membership will be be put to referendum in Ukraine, this is perhaps trying to influence them to say 'no'.

    I don't understand yet why Russia feels so threatened... The missiles in Poland they have been offered access to etc and they cannot possibly stop a Russian attack on the West as I understand it form Col of Engineers among others. Why would they not co-operate instead of feeling this (what can only be described as) paranoia?

    Does the West want to take Russia out? I hardly think so. Certainly NATO cannot commit sufficient forces to Afghanistan at the moment let alone face Russia. For sure we don't appreciate thier tax on the gas etc passing through their country but we recognise thier right to levy it. They rely on us buying it and we rely on the supply... business no? Partners in business, no? Can they not be so with NATO?

    Why are they paranoid about NATO?

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    The thing is if the US truly respected Russia they would leave a 1 country thick buffer around it and not consistantly push closer and closer to the Russian borders.

    What do they really want out of this? its not like the US really deeply cares about Georgia or Ukraine, well not enough to risk US forces in their defence against Russia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chakos View Post
    The thing is if the US truly respected Russia they would leave a 1 country thick buffer around it and not consistantly push closer and closer to the Russian borders.

    What do they really want out of this? its not like the US really deeply cares about Georgia or Ukraine, well not enough to risk US forces in their defence against Russia.
    Don't worry in the end what will happen is most likely a parallel structure to Nato growing out of ESDP[european self defense policy] that would re-assert their own foreign policy making them able to pursue their own interests. Their main problem was integrations of a various countries weapons complexes into a common procurement platform. European Defense Agency will probably start becoming the dominant military industrial complex procurer in Europe displacing U.S. producers. Once they create an alternative alliance the shift will occur very fast. My guess is France Germany and Benelux will shift out of NATO and move the money. (remember Eu is just an economic block not a military alliance nor a foreign policy agreement thus they can't force CFSP on the new countries but they can leave the alliance and conduct an alternative)
    Common Foreign and Security Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...5.php?CID=2894
    Turkey would most likely stay with Nato.

    I don't think they will put NATO to a referendum in Ukraine.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    Surely the thing is that if the people of the Ukraine wish to join NATO they have their own free will and right to do so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Don't worry in the end what will happen is most likely a parallel structure to Nato growing out of ESDP[european self defense policy] that would re-assert their own foreign policy making them able to pursue their own interests. Their main problem was integrations of a various countries weapons complexes into a common procurement platform. European Defense Agency will probably start becoming the dominant military industrial complex procurer in Europe displacing U.S. producers. Once they create an alternative alliance the shift will occur very fast. My guess is France Germany and Benelux will shift out of NATO and move the money. (remember Eu is just an economic block not a military alliance nor a foreign policy agreement thus they can't force CFSP on the new countries but they can leave the alliance and conduct an alternative)
    Common Foreign and Security Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...5.php?CID=2894
    Turkey would most likely stay with Nato.

    I don't think they will put NATO to a referendum in Ukraine.

    The Europeans already collaborate on many military issues - the Eurofighter etc I know from my own experience of meeting people that I will work for next year that we work together in IT etc as I had to speak to some as a test (was totaly out of my depth).

    No France and Germany and Benelux countries will not move out of NATO - that would cause problems within the economic union, nor can they stand alone militarily without reliance on the greater whole and the US. Should they do so they would cease to be an economic and military power of any regard and therefore it is not in their interests. The future for (most of) the EU seems to be toward greater integration not dismemberment. They have tried to adopt a new European 'Constitution' etc and when it failed re-introduced it so that people didn't have to vote (by the back door).

    For sure we Europeans have old enmities but when faced with a common threat to our lands I feel sure that next time we would pull together.

    The oldest enmity in Europe is the Anglo - French yet in two wars aginst Germany Britain the French, yes - for our own self interest but this is what would happen with Russia.

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    Surely the thing is that if the people of the Ukraine wish to join NATO they have their own free will and right to do so.
    In a perfect world with fairies and unicorns and the like then yes it would be that simple. In reality both you and i know that its not going to happen. What if Mexico wanted to join a the Shanghai Coopoeration Organisation. Would the US accept it simply because the Mexican people agreed to it? What if they then opened up and allowed Chinese military bases in their country?

    The US wouldnt stand for it any more than Russia would stand for it. Any large, powerful country fully expects that any smaller countries on its immediate borders will be under its sphere of influence. It may not sound very democratic but its the way the world has been running for a very long time and its not going to begin to change now.

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    [QUOTE=chakos;544370]In a perfect world with fairies and unicorns and the like then yes it would be that simple. In reality both you and i know that its not going to happen. What if Mexico wanted to join a the Shanghai Coopoeration Organisation. Would the US accept it simply because the Mexican people agreed to it? What if they then opened up and allowed Chinese military bases in their country? [quote]

    Can I say please? III Corps would hit the border and seal it and stop the flood of illegals. 50,000 Chinese troops would be doing a us favor vs a million a year problem.

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    I completely agree with you Chakos on the way things really are.

    No France and Germany and Benelux countries will not move out of NATO - that would cause problems within the economic union, nor can they stand alone militarily without reliance on the greater whole and the US.
    How? Eu is an economic union countries aren't obligated to join Nato to be in it...

    I m just going to tell you the following there are two bureaucracies right now one will be made redundant and the other will go on. Notice the beginning of hard economic times especially in Europe. They are creating a structure separate of NATO to provide some of its' functions eventually egos' will come into play and there will be a choice. Thats how it works.

    Stand alone militarily against whom? Russia doesn't want Poland really believe me. It will force economic realities just like the U.S. does with Mexico and the E.U. does with North Africa but thats normal. Countries with economic leverage get the better part of the deal.

    European Security and Defence Policy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Scroll down to Eu-Nato Berlin Plus and read a bit. (about duplication etc)
    http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...5.php?CID=2894
    Notice whats happening right?
    (notice ESDP blocked "Esdp Turkey Parting Ways" title scroll down)
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chakos View Post
    In a perfect world with fairies and unicorns and the like then yes it would be that simple. In reality both you and i know that its not going to happen. What if Mexico wanted to join a the Shanghai Coopoeration Organisation. Would the US accept it simply because the Mexican people agreed to it? What if they then opened up and allowed Chinese military bases in their country?

    The US wouldnt stand for it any more than Russia would stand for it. Any large, powerful country fully expects that any smaller countries on its immediate borders will be under its sphere of influence. It may not sound very democratic but its the way the world has been running for a very long time and its not going to begin to change now.
    Taking a leaf from your example, I would like to state that none would like even an alien ideology, let alone military bases, to come near their shores, more so, a superpower.

    The happenings in Chile, Venezuela, Bolivia etc are not totally local and free from external influences!

    That is how the world functions. Every powerful country ensures that their 'turf' is protected.

    Survival of the Fittest!

    Presidents cited the Roosevelt Corollary as justification for U.S. intervention in Cuba (1906-1910), Nicaragua (1909-1911, 1912-1925 and 1926-1933), Haiti (1915-1934), and the Dominican Republic (1916-1924).

    The Monroe Doctrine is a U.S. doctrine which, on December 2, 1823, stated that European powers were no longer to colonize or interfere with the affairs of the newly independent nations of the Americas.


    "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

    I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

    HAKUNA MATATA

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