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Reply With QuoteTea? Russians are tea drinkers? I would've thought coffee.
oh)
yes, of course we are friends)
oh... i need a couple of tea. At least.
Tea? Russians are tea drinkers? I would've thought coffee.
Chimo
we drink all that may flowOriginally Posted by Officer of Engineers
Last edited by foxhound_nn; 14 Feb 08, at 21:15.
Ok, first of all, calm down. How about you logic up your arguments, and take a deep breath.oh...
_what are you telling to me!) I am an economist, I study forex, and I AM IN RUSSIA!
_What? you have no arguments? oh, so pity.
_I have. At least Bank of Russia
_oh, it's not very important theme, but it shows how you debate about Russia
_really, just think, you are absolutely convinced in something, and that appears to be a mistake. And not only that is a mistake. really.
If you are an economist, which I highly doubt since pretty much everything I have said relating to the situation is Econ 101 related, I shouldn't have to be making these arguments to you in the first place. Russia's currency is appreciating because oil is forcing it up. Why? Because your export economy is based on raw materials. Tell me, what percentage of your exports are raw materials, and how much of Russia's investment is in raw materials? I want to hear it from you. Why? Because it is about time that you actually started providing some numbers to back yourself up with. Go ahead, look it up.
Here are a few easily accessible sources to help you... just to make it very easy. I can also provide good book titles if you wish.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Background.html
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp05241.pdf
Until you start talking with your big boy voice (meaning proper grammar, spelling, punctuation, and maturity), I'm done talking to you, as you clearly aren't worth taking seriously.
yea, but even better what may burn with blue flameswe drink all that may flow
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!" B. Franklin
ok. i'll try
It's you right
to begin with, what do you mean by Econ101?
Only Putin and Gref know the exact figures.
I don't have up-to-date figures, but, first, IMF is only IMF, it has its own goals in such papers. Another organisation that you sited to is even less. And second, i didn't tell anything about figures. I know that they are not good. I told only that some of your views are mistaken
By the way, you probably have an illusion that crawling peg (that is the exact name of this system) is a sign of controled economy. It isn't true, crawling peg is a measure to make business environment inside the country better and more stable.
Also, to be precise I want to say that Central Bank tried to make ruble absolutely convertible several times. But then it refused this idea.
And about IMF and all such organisations: they all make mistakes. One example: on Feb 1 The Bureau of Labor Statistics published January payrolls data and adjustment [correction] of December data. And what is the problem: December payrolls were IIRC 18k, but then, on Feb 1 this bureau adjusted this figure up to 82k! Please, i don't understand this, tell me how American official statistic bureau can mistake in 4,5 times?
Guys! I'm Russian! my native language is Russian. I studied English only for several years. Of course I make mistakes, but i'm tryingUntil you start talking with your big boy voice (meaning proper grammar, spelling, punctuation, and maturity), I'm done talking to you, as you clearly aren't worth taking seriously.
And btw one of the reasons why I'm here - is to learn English
If you want, let's try to speak on Russian. gonna try?
Basic economics. Pretty much supply and demand, that kind of stuff.
Do you have sources that are more impartial? Because honestly, IMF and World Bank have a vested interest in accurate data. Those are credible sources.Only Putin and Gref know the exact figures.
I don't have up-to-date figures, but, first, IMF is only IMF, it has its own goals in such papers. Another organisation that you sited to is even less. And second, i didn't tell anything about figures. I know that they are not good. I told only that some of your views are mistaken
This information is from well over a year ago. They have had plenty of time to set errors right. I tend to trust the IMF and World Bank for economic information more than a government (including the US), because they have less reason to lie (and most national governments don't assemble the various associated data in any kind of readable format).And about IMF and all such organisations: they all make mistakes. One example: on Feb 1 The Bureau of Labor Statistics published January payrolls data and adjustment [correction] of December data. And what is the problem: December payrolls were IIRC 18k, but then, on Feb 1 this bureau adjusted this figure up to 82k! Please, i don't understand this, tell me how American official statistic bureau can mistake in 4,5 times?
I understand that, and this last post indicated to me that you put a little time into it, which is why I am responding. Your previous posts have not.Guys! I'm Russian! my native language is Russian. I studied English only for several years. Of course I make mistakes, but i'm trying
And btw one of the reasons why I'm here - is to learn English
If you want, let's try to speak on Russian. gonna try?
From my perspective, it is not worth putting time into a debate that my opponent is not. I'm not asking for perfect English, because I recognize that for many on this board English is not their first language. I am asking that you put a little effort into your responses. It really adds to the credibility, whereas numerous capital letters, exclamation points, question marks, and just plain weird post structure do not.
Edit: It isn't that I don't trust government sources, I just always ask myself what reason they have to lie.
Last edited by lwarmonger; 14 Feb 08, at 23:08.
no, but i don't consider IMF to be very reliable sourse
01 feb 2008 check it (if you are about this)
You are going to have to post a link, I have been looking but I can't spot what you are talking about. And I don't really see what this has to do with the IMF's reliability.
Foxhound is right, Central Bank keeps rouble low artificially. But it looks like tightrope-walking actually. They try to keep rouble low to support exports, but at the same time they try to hold inflation, while it can be easily reduced if they let rouble be strong.oh, i didn't read it yet
As for influence oil price has on Russian economy, it isn't that high due to stabfund and other funds that accumulate 'extra' money. For Russia oil costs 27$/barrel, every cent above it goes to government non-budget funds.
So having ever growing stabfund is pointless, it doesn't anyhow support growth of economy, extra oil money can't be used inside of Russia. So I think lower price would be better for Russia as well as for the whole world.
The ruble has appreciated substantially in the past few years, and that alone has reduced the growth of non-energy exports... although the general consensus is that the ruble is undervalued.
Check the foreign (and domestic) investment in the IMF report. Most of it is going into raw materials related industries (mainly oil). Russia's recent growth has in large part been in non-exportable services, domestic industry (which isn't having success externally), and energy. Of which energy comprises the large majority.As for influence oil price has on Russian economy, it isn't that high due to stabfund and other funds that accumulate 'extra' money. For Russia oil costs 27$/barrel, every cent above it goes to government non-budget funds.
That is merely exacerbating the problem though. Only being able to use the money for debt and topping off the pension funds (if I am correct in its use here) is not helping with industrial investment... something Russia desperately needs.So having ever growing stabfund is pointless, it doesn't anyhow support growth of economy, extra oil money can't be used inside of Russia. So I think lower price would be better for Russia as well as for the whole world.
Russian industry faces huge internal demand, that allows it to grow without export growth, and it still has to be able to compete with imported goods on internal market, before it can be successful abroad.
At least during recent years situation improved, share of Russian goods on internal market grew up, and oil&gas generate 64% of export revenue, not 90% as 10 years ago. But situation is still far from being perfect, to put it mildly and I understand it very well. Patriotism is a good thing generally, but some patriots definitelly need reality check.
Isn't it what I said, just in other words?Only being able to use the money for debt and topping off the pension funds (if I am correct in its use here) is not helping with industrial investment... something Russia desperately needs.
Russia's domestic demand has been growing, however I would argue that much of that growth has been fueled by foreign products... which leaves Russia in the uncomfortable position of providing almost entirely raw materials in exchange for manufactured goods.
Well, you are counting that they are up from the extreme low point that they were at 10 years ago, hardly a normal situation for Russia. Some of the figures in the sources I provided seem to indicate that the size of the non-energy related economy relative to the rest of the economy is actually shrinking.... and if you start taking into account other resource products (such as timber, coal, iron, ect) that 64% is more like 80%.At least during recent years situation improved, share of Russian goods on internal market grew up, and oil&gas generate 64% of export revenue, not 90% as 10 years ago.
Yeah, true of many countries... however I think right now your president needs a reality check. Russia isn't the Soviet Union, and I don't think that Russia has been taking the right tack with Poland or the Czechs at all, much less with the United States.But situation is still far from being perfect, to put it mildly and I understand it very well. Patriotism is a good thing generally, but some patriots definitely need reality check.
I apologize, I guess I didn't quite understand what you were trying to say.Isn't it what I said, just in other words?
So what is the definition of Strategic Appetite? Nowadsys I'm missing Big Time over WAB jargons.
And on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...
I think defending of national interests is something that should be done regardless of shape of economy, and not something to be an object of trade. I don't see any sense in deploying anti-missle defence right now, if it's indeed designed to counter non-existent Iranian missles.
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