Thread: World War Three

Ezekiel 38 and 39 has interesting scenarios.

Sir John Hackett's, "Third World War" is a good book to read.

Then you develop the scenarions and we can chip in.

Sir Hackett commanded the 4th Parachute Brigade at Arnhem.

Here's one for you. 30 years from now, China reaches a point economically where it feels that it has a comfortable margin against the United States. It then feels the need to expand. Such moves have been tried in the past (border clashes with India and the Soviet Union, border war with Vietnam, arms race with Taiwan), however now China feels that it can create enough force to actually emerge decisively victorious. Now China has a problem. It's navy is still inferior to that of the United States (it takes longer than 30 years to create a naval tradition, as Germany found out prior to WWI), however it now possesses sufficient local forces to be a threat for as far out as it's land based air can reach.
Taiwan is attacked first. The United States begins to gear up for war, but since the assault is quickly executed, and the US is no longer sure that it can win, no actual combat occurs between American forces and the Chinese, and Tawian is welcomed "back" into the PRC. Japan has been continuing to construct it's military in the intervening 30 years, and now possesses a considerable navy and air force, but the ageing of it's population has taken it's toll, and Japan is terrified of intervening. The world sits back and watches, while the United States and China prepare for the coming contest. Then a war breaks out. This is not between China and the United States, but between Pakistan and India, over a nuclear detonation in Indian Kashmir. The war quickly turns against Pakistan, who uses it's (by then) substantial nuclear arsenal. India responds, and both nations are severely damaged in the exchange. China is watching with glee, as it's primary rival for producing cheap manufactured goods descends into civil war (with it's government destroyed, India begins to break apart into seperate nations), and China decides that this is the perfect moment to intervene. Chinese forces pour across the border, in an effort to secure the remaining populated areas within India. The United States, unwilling to sit by and watch as China conquers a still considerable economy, lands troops to fight on behalf of a free (ie independant, pro-western) India. The Chinese and American troops meet, and the Third World War begins.

Each side has considerable advantages and disadvantages. The United States still has a substantial lead on technology, and it's nuclear forces are far larger and more modern than the Chinese equivalent. The American Navy is still better than it's Chinese counterpart, and has a winning mentality that is unmatched. The armed forces as a whole are unhampered by worries about political unreliability, and therefore far more accustomed to thinking for themselves, far less averse to making judgement calls. The United States lacks base industries (like textiles, steel, ect...) and while those can be created by extensive investment in robotics, that takes time. Also the American populace, while mostly in favor of fighting Chinese aggression, has a very vocal minority who are opposed to war for any reason (appeasers), who are capable of significantly disrupting the war effort. China, on the other hand, has a considerable power economically, having used the past 30 years to grow to a position of dominance in bulk manufactured goods. They also possess superior numbers, and are better able to mobilize their population for a total war. The war will also be very close to China itself, and therefore China would have to keep reliance upon it's allies to a minimum. These advantages are offset by an increasingly corrupt communist party, and a strong desire by the government to keep the military firmly under their control. There is also increasing political unrest that could be sparked by military defeats. In addition to that, all of China's neighbors are increasingly uneasy with it's blatently expansionist tendancies, and therefore have been building their militaries as quickly as possible. Russia is heavily armed, autocratic, and increasingly nationalistic (think Germany in 1910), Japan is terrified (and also fairly heavily armed, though without nukes still), and the European Union has the consensus that it isn't their problem (although they've been happy to sell China weapons for the past 30 years).


What do you think?

I think you're extremely optimistic about Chinese military development.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

I think you're extremely optimistic about Chinese military development.

Agreed.