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Thread: World War Three

  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    And America would? Or Russia?
    Against China? The US most certainly. The Russians a bit worst off but not intolerable. The Chinese maybe got 30 nukes that can reach the CONUS and about twice that number of nukes that can reach the European Russia. Would hurt big time no doubt but not anything Martial Law could not hold the nations together.

    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    I've studied nuclear targeting plans and have seen its fairly easy to wipe out half the population base of America, China, or Russia but it gets extremely hard to do much more than that simply because of population densities and land size.
    The collapsed infrastructure is more frightening. There wouldn't be a Chinese national gov't with enough reach to rule and serve all of China. The rice belt would not be able to feed the industrial belt and the industrial belt could not get their clean up crews to the rice belt.

    And also the ecological disaster would be world wide, felt by everyone. Only those countries with sane heads woudl get through it.

    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    You appear to be a very knowledgeable person how about speculating as the original poster asked instead of simply riding down what little speculation is in this thread.

    I never said China could or would defeat America nor did I pick how far into the future this would occur.

    How about telling us IF a world war was to occur in the future who would be the players, how would it happen, and what could be the result and please something more than the tired clash of conventional forces before the real war kicks into gear.

    All I see in this thread is a lot of people who want to pretend China is not an emerging power and who want to tell me about a conventional land clash in Siberia that is never going to happen.
    Simply put, I've given up predicting the future. I've predicted that I was either going to die in a nuclear fireball at the Fulda Gap or my grandkids are going to be facing the Iron Curtain still.

    I can only tell you what's happenning today and what reasonable capabilities are expected in the near future.
    Chimo

  2. #167
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    I love how everyone seems to ignore the original question and beat down the original poster without answering his original question. It ask for speculation. Most of the replies simply beat up China or Russia and pretend nuclear weapons were never invented.
    The first legitimate hypothetical was proposed by lwarmnger back on page 1. It had some serious flaws in its basic assumptions and so those of us who study this stuff for a living and for a hobby (in my case) spent a lot of time picking at those flaws, yes.

    In fact, one of the things that OoE has pointed out continuously is that these kind of "global war" scenarios have a tremendous potential to go nuclear. Even Clancy and Bond, two of my favorite technothriller authors, have to construct fairly elaborate boundary conditions for their fantasy wars to remain conventional, and at least 2 of the stories I can think of have nukes being launched, one detonating. So I don't think it's fair to characterize us as being ignorant of that potential, if indeed that was your intent.

    If you read through the replies to lwarmonger you'll find that the most likely ending to his "China invades Russia to get Siberia" scenario is that Russia nukes the Chinese forces in Russia. If China were to then launch its few missiles against Russian cities, Russia would launch against China, and in THAT exchange, Russia wins.

    So I don't think anyone is ignoring nuclear weapons.

    -dale

  3. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers
    I don't think so. The Atlantic Wall was not manned by any of the good divisions. Those were on the Russian Front. Pitted against those Siberian divisions would have been a sorry state of affairs. The Soviets would have still won but Stalin was going to kill (and was willing) the USSR in doing it.



    A large part of the answer is Stalin, not so much as he killed off everyone but that he was a micro manager. He had final approval in all plans and thus, you would have to present a most detailed plan in order to get approval. The likes of Rommel and Patton would never have risen in Stalin's General Staff.



    As was with every military on earth. The technology had not evolved where the leader of a country can directly interfere in local battlefield conditions. That is there was not enough time to ship plans back to the capital to get approval.
    I wonder how no one was able to stand up to Stalin in the early years.

    So anyway, so you are saying that Siberian divisions were very good and would kill the Germans easily? If so, is that the reason why they are good is because they are fresh and fully equiped and manned and have learned all the lessons meaning learning other people's mistakes?

    Or is it the other way around?

    by the way, I spent two hours poring over the NATO ToE you gave me (This time, I bothered to really think and poring over all the details, instead of skimming it). Just the NATO. and man i am still figuring where which unit go. I gotta draw a map and pin the units and see it visually.

    It will take me about a whole day to figure the whole thing out.

  4. #169
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    With so many learned people on this site I was just disappointed after 8 pages to find no one that was answering the original speculation and the majority of post nothing but tearing down the one person that did.

    As the last couple post implied if all really does come down to nuclear weapons than these massive conventional forces are being build for wars that will never happen or which these weapons will not significantly impact.

    Maybe who has or is getting nuclear weapons is more important than all the conventional force scenarios and military comparisons.

    Conventional war is like betting on rooster fights. As long as you have an endless supply of roosters and the law doesn't intervene you can rooster fight all you want. Once the guy who owns the other rooster gets pissed and pulls out a gun the rooster fight itself was just a stupid game that put you in the building with the man with the gun. Until a gunman enters the room all us military people are just another rooster thrown in the ring. When the rooster's owner feels his life threatened no matter what the quality and quantity of his roosters he is going to pull his gun not throw another rooster in the ring.
    Last edited by antelope; 17 Feb 05, at 23:15.

  5. #170
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster
    I wonder how no one was able to stand up to Stalin in the early years.
    They did. He killed them.

    Only slightly toungue-in-cheek, here is my answer to a similar question posed on another message forum:

    "Stalin killed early and killed often. Then he killed some more. In between killings he'd usually break things up with a light killing, or perhaps an insurance killing, just in case. When he wasn't killing people, he'd generally be reflecting on his last killing, or planning his next. And then, aside from all that, there were the killings that he encouraged others he put in positions of power to do. Then later on he'd kill them too."

    Stalin was the comet fragment that caused the extinction of everything Russia could have been.

    -dale

  6. #171
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    With so many learned people on this site I was just disappointed after 8 pages to find no one that was answering the original speculation and the majority of post nothing but tearing down the one person that did.

    As the last couple post implied if all really does come down to nuclear weapons than these massive conventional forces are being build for wars that will never happen or which these weapons will not significantly impact.

    Maybe who has or is getting nuclear weapons is more important than all the conventional force scenarios and military comparisons.

    Conventional war is like betting on rooster fights. As long as you have an endless supply of roosters and the law doesn't intervene you can rooster fight all you want. Once the guy who owns the other rooster gets pissed and pulls out a gun the rooster fight itself was just a stupid game that put you in the building with the man with the gun. Until a gunman enters the room all us military people are just another rooster thrown in the ring. When the rooster's owner feels his life threatened no matter what the quality and quantity of his roosters he is going to pull his gun not throw another rooster in the ring.
    So what's your point, O Disappointed One?

    -dale

  7. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalem
    So what's your point, O Disappointed One?

    -dale
    9 pages to the thread and only two answers to a good speculative question.

    The next world war if it comes will be nuclear. Conventional wars are warm up exercises when two nuclear powers are involved against each other. When a nuclear armed country goes to war against a non-nuclear armed country the war stays conventional because the deaths of their own soldiers isn't as important as the bad PR the leaders who don't actually fight would get if they used their nuclear weapons.

    If it isn't worth a nuclear bomb, it isn't worth your life.

  8. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalem
    They did. He killed them.

    Only slightly toungue-in-cheek, here is my answer to a similar question posed on another message forum:

    "Stalin killed early and killed often. Then he killed some more. In between killings he'd usually break things up with a light killing, or perhaps an insurance killing, just in case. When he wasn't killing people, he'd generally be reflecting on his last killing, or planning his next. And then, aside from all that, there were the killings that he encouraged others he put in positions of power to do. Then later on he'd kill them too."

    Stalin was the comet fragment that caused the extinction of everything Russia could have been.

    -dale
    But why couldn't they kill him? That's what I want to know. How did Stalin survive and beat them?

  9. #174
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster
    But why couldn't they kill him? That's what I want to know. How did Stalin survive and beat them?
    Ahh, I see. Well, some of it was luck, early on. But Stalin, even as a young man, was so ruthless that he inspired tremendous fear in anyone thinking about going against him. Tremendous fear. And he also found ruthless people to be his right hand man for awhile before he killed them too.

    A very good book about Stalin is
    Radzinsky's "Stalin"

    It falls into the category of "extremely readable and entertaining", but as one of the reviews notes, must be read with a grain of salt. It is very dramatic and sensationalistic, but it is one of the books that can give you an idea of the kind of man and monster Stalin was.

    I should add that this is the wrong book to read for Soviet history but it is the right book to read about the personality and history of the man who directed much of it.

    -dale
    Last edited by dalem; 18 Feb 05, at 00:26.

  10. #175
    Lord High Hullabalooster Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antelope
    9 pages to the thread and only two answers to a good speculative question.

    The next world war if it comes will be nuclear. Conventional wars are warm up exercises when two nuclear powers are involved against each other. When a nuclear armed country goes to war against a non-nuclear armed country the war stays conventional because the deaths of their own soldiers isn't as important as the bad PR the leaders who don't actually fight would get if they used their nuclear weapons.

    If it isn't worth a nuclear bomb, it isn't worth your life.
    I still don't see how this wasn;t covered to your satisfaction.

    -dale

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster
    But why couldn't they kill him? That's what I want to know. How did Stalin survive and beat them?
    Stalin was also the head of the secret police, meaning that he often learns of the acts against him before his enemies could put it together.
    Chimo

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalem
    Any incoming president has to weigh the cost/benefit of altering national defense policies like that. There is inertia and momentum behind these policies - some good, and some bad. If you start making those kinds of changes then you telegraph uncertainty to the enemy, and that is NEVER a good thing.

    I don't know how old you are lwarmonger, but none of this was merely theoretical: The Sovs STATED they were going to expand their sphere of influence, by force if necessary. They had already demonstrated their willingness to keep where they had ended WWII and take more of what they wanted (see any history of the Cold War for details) and there was every reason to believe they meant more of it. Once we decided that keeping Western Europe free was worth doing, we said we would do that. When the conventional balance looked like it had swung the Sov's way, we said we'd nuke their forces if they came over to play.

    They said they were coming, we said we'd stop them, and eventually we said we'd use nukes. We HAD to be serious about that, and because we were, the Sovs took us seriously. So a whole lot of prestige and everything else was locked into us standing firm. For a President to come onstage and say "we will not nuke your tanks" would have been like waving red meat in front of a starving dog.

    -dale
    That was our policy before it became clear that the Soviet Union had matched our nuclear capability. Then it became our policy to build up conventional forces to be able to defeat the Warsaw Pact by non-nuclear means, because using nuclear weapons had become suicidal. Hence the arms build up in the late 70's and 80's.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalem
    I don't know how old you are lwarmonger,
    I'm 20.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by lwarmonger
    I'm 20.
    I've got a car older than you.
    Chimo

  15. #180
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    If a world war to happen again, I don't think it is guaranteed to go nuclear. A lot can still be done by conventional forces, and as long as no nuclear capable nations are in danger of being conquered, there is no reason to commit national suicide over a conventional defeat. If a nation is soundly defeated conventionally, then the victor can force them to the negotiating table in order to gain concessions in the secondary theaters of war. This can be done without conquering the homeland of a nuclear capable state.

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