Another Cold War in the Offing?

**Ray** · 12 Feb 07, 18:15

Monday, February 12, 2007. Issue 3594. Page 1.

Putin Castigates U.S. Foreign Policy

By Carl Schreck
Staff Writer

U.S. Defense Department / Reuters
President Vladimir Putin and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates taking their seats at the opening of a security conference in Munich on Saturday.

President Vladmir Putin accused the United States of carrying out a reckless and dangerous foreign policy, in a blistering speech that some U.S. politicians likened to Cold War rhetoric.

Senior Russian officials, however, insisted that honesty and openness -- not hostility -- were behind Putin's address to an international security conference in Munich on Saturday. Political analysts expressed doubt that the remarks would cast a chill on U.S.-Russia relations.

Putin, issuing perhaps his harshest public rebuke of the United States, said it had "overstepped its national borders in every way" and that its plans for an anti-missile shield "could provoke nothing less than the beginning of a nuclear era."

"Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper-use of military force in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts," Putin said in a clear allusion to the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

Putin also decried what he called "greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law" and criticized "first and foremost the United States" for forcing its values on other countries.

"This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?" Putin said.

The White House expressed disappointment with the speech. "His accusations are wrong," U.S. President George W. Bush's national security spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, told The Associated Press. "We expect to continue cooperation with Russia in areas important to the international community such as counter-terrorism and reducing the spread and threat of weapons of mass destruction."

U.S. presidential hopeful Senator John McCain, who was also attending the conference, described Putin's remarks as "the most aggressive speech from a Russian leader since the end of the Cold War."

McCain also accused Russia of taking an "autocratic turn" and its foreign policy of being "opposed to the principles of the Western democracies."

"Moscow must understand that it cannot enjoy a genuine partnership with the West so long as its actions, at home and abroad, conflict fundamentally with the core values of the Euro-Atlantic democracies," McCain said, The New York Times reported.

Putin also took a swipe at accusations from the West that the Kremlin was rolling back democratic institutions.

"We are constantly being taught about democracy, but for some reason those who teach us do not want to learn themselves," Putin said.

Putin slammed the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has become increasingly critical of Russia's electoral politics since the 2000 presidential election. At the time, it praised the 2000 vote, which ushered Putin into a first term, as providing a "framework for pluralist elections and for a significantly high level of transparency."

"People are trying to transform the OSCE into a vulgar instrument designed to promote the foreign policy interests of one or a group of countries," Putin said.

He chided the OSCE for "interfering in the internal affairs of other countries" and warned that it should not be involved in "imposing a regime that determines how these states should live and develop."

The OSCE has raised red flags about the fairness of elections held in other former Soviet republics in recent years.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who sat in the audience next to German Chancellor Angela Merkel during Putin's speech, said Sunday that "one Cold War was quite enough."

"As an old Cold Warrior, one of yesterday's speeches almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time," Gates said, the AP reported. "Almost."

Gates announced Sunday in Munich that he had accepted an invitation from Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to visit Russia. He did not give a date for the trip.

Speaking in Munich on Sunday, Ivanov said he did not think Putin's speech was aggressive or confrontational but showed, rather, that "our relationships with the European Union and the United Sates and Germany are so mature that we can freely say what we truly think."

"Open, without hypocrisy and without the Cold War philosophy," Ivanov said, Interfax reported.

Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's Foreign Affairs Committee, said the speech did not indicate any change in Russia's foreign policy and that talk of a return to the Cold War was unwarranted.

"Russia is not the second coming of the Soviet Union," Margelov said, Interfax reported. "The Russian president is the president of all Russian citizens, including those who -- not without reason -- are worried by missile systems placed at our borders, as well as prejudice against Russia and insinuations that we are unpredictable."

Margelov was traveling with Putin in Saudi Arabia and could not be reached for further comment, his spokeswoman said Sunday.

Political analysts downplayed suggestions that Putin's speech represented any sharp new direction in Russia's relations with the West.

"He did not say anything that he hasn't said before in one way or another," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, a Kremlin-connected analyst.

Nikonov said the timing of Putin's speech was likely connected a statement by Gates last week that lumped Russia together with North Korea and Iran.

Gates told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that the United States needed a "full range of military capabilities" because "we don't know what's going to develop in places like Russia and China, in North Korea, in Iran and elsewhere."

With regional parliamentary elections approaching in March, State Duma elections in December and the election of Putin's successor next year, Putin's speech was meant primarily for domestic consumption, said Vladimir Privylovsky, head of the Panorama think tank.

"It helps create the image of building a fortress around Russia to keep out enemies," he said. "This keeps the populace afraid of the West and encourages them to rally around the Kremlin."

Kremlin spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky said that far from being confrontational, Putin's speech would likely be received at home as "very reserved and diplomatic."

"Even among the middle class, anti-Americanism runs very deep," Pavlovsky said.
Putin Castigates U.S. Foreign Policy

Read in comjuction with the news report in the next post.

**Ray** · 12 Feb 07, 18:17

Monday, February 12, 2007. Issue 3594. Page 3.

Putin Hints at Veto on Kosovo

By Slobodan Lekic
The Associated Press

Darko Vojinovic / AP
Kosovo Serbs calling for Russian support in Kosovska Mitrovica on Friday.

MUNICH, Germany -- Russia will not support any international plan to resolve Kosovo's status that is not accepted by both Serbia and the province's ethnic Albanian majority, President Vladimir Putin said Saturday.

"Only the Kosovars and Serbs can resolve this," Putin told a forum of the world's top security officials. "Let's not play God and try to resolve their problems."

Putin's remarks raised the specter that Russia might use its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block a U.S.- and European Union-backed proposal that envisions internationally supervised statehood for Kosovo.

"If we see that one of the parties is not happy with the solution, we will not support that decision," Putin said. "If one participant in this problem feels hurt, this will drag on for centuries."

Serbia and Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership have failed in negotiations to reach agreement on the province's future, with Serbia demanding the province remain within its territory and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians wanting independence.

The Kosovo proposal -- unveiled recently by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari and which needs UN Security Council approval to take effect -- does not explicitly mention independence, but spells out conditions for self-rule, including a flag, anthem, army and constitution, and the right to apply for membership in international organizations.

Thousands of Kosovo Serbs rallied in protest of the proposal in the northern city of Kosovska Mitrovica on Friday. They waved banners reading "Long live Serbia" and "Russia, help!''

Moscow has said any solution favoring Kosovo's independence could encourage separatist movements elsewhere in the world, including in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Moldova.

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov on Friday issued a strong warning that granting independence to Kosovo could spark a "chain reaction."

"If we imagine a situation in which Kosovo achieves independence, then other people -- people living in regions that are not recognized -- will ask us: 'Are we not as good as them?'" Ivanov told reporters ahead of a meeting of his NATO counterparts in Seville, Spain.

"This concerns obviously the post-Soviet space, but also regions in Europe," he said. "This can create a chain reaction ... we must be careful not to open Pandora's box."

Serbian officials also have warned that an independent Kosovo could also serve as a precedent for independence movements elsewhere, notably in Spain's Basque Country or Catalonia.

The United States has said, however, that the Kosovo situation is unique because the province has been under UN rule since 1999, when Serb forces were ejected following NATO bombing.

"I hope that Russia would embrace these aspirations for Kosovo and the Balkans," U.S. Senator John McCain said Saturday at the Munich forum attended by Putin. "So far, it has not."

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said after the Russian president's speech that it was premature to speculate about whether Russia would block a UN resolution on Kosovo. "We still have a long way to go because the two sides must negotiate between themselves," Peskov said, but added that granting Kosovo independence against Serbia's wishes would set "a dangerous precedent."

Kosovo has been under UN and NATO administration since a 78-day NATO-led air war that halted a Serb crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists in 1999.

Putin Hints at Veto on Kosovo

Read another in the next

**Ray** · 12 Feb 07, 18:19

Monday, February 12, 2007. Issue 3594. Page 4.

Baluyevsky Calls U.S. Expansion a Threat

By Vladimir Isachenkov
The Associated Press

General Yury Baluyevsky, the country's top military officer, said the United States was expanding its economic, political and military presence in Russia's traditional zones of influence, and described it as the top national security threat.

Baluyevsky, chief of the General Staff, said Russia now faced even greater military threats than during the Cold War and that the nation needed a new military doctrine to respond to these challenges, according to a speech posted on the Defense Ministry's web site Friday.

"Russia's cooperation with the West on the basis of forming common or close strategic interests hasn't helped its military security," Baluyevsky said in the speech, delivered at a recent security conference in Moscow. "Moreover, the situation in many regions of the world that are vitally important for Russia and near its borders has sometimes become more difficult."

Baluyevsky referred to what he called "the U.S. military leadership's course aimed at maintaining its global leadership and expanding its economic, political and military presence in Russia's traditional zones of influence" as a top threat for Russia's national security.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, said Russia would find an "intellectual response" to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic -- two former Soviet satellite states that now are members of NATO -- according to an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine posted on the ministry's web site Friday.

Russian officials have assailed the United States and its NATO allies for their refusal to ratify an amended version of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty that regulates the deployment of military aircraft, tanks and other heavy non-nuclear weapons around the continent.

Russia has ratified the amended version of the treaty signed in 1999, but the United States and other NATO members have refused to do that until Russia abides by its commitment to withdraw troops from Moldova and Georgia.

In the remarks posted Friday, Lavrov said the failure to ratify the amended document had "led to very serious imbalances between the armed forces," since the arsenals of former Soviet allies which that have joined NATO were counted alongside Soviet weapons in the original 1990 CFE Treaty.

Amid growing distrust of U.S. intentions, Russian lawmakers and commentators reacted nervously to recent comments by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates naming Russia as a potential threat.

Baluyevsky Calls U.S. Expansion a Threat

Comments below.

**Ray** · 12 Feb 07, 18:26

If one reads through the foregoing three news reports from Russia, it is a sure indication that Russia is really concerned and worried at having adversaries practically knocking at their door.

Hence, there are good reasons for Russia to get ballistic in rhetoric.

It is the same situation that the US faced when Russians brought in missiles into Cuba.

The US reaction was more militarily positive than what Russia has so far done.

Will they go further?

Is the Cold War starting again?

If so, what is the repercussion on the world in gneral and Middle East in particular?

**astralis** · 12 Feb 07, 19:48

russia is riding high on oil. unlike the chinese, for example, the russian economy is far more one-dimensional.

and they have to contend with an aging population, like japan's. and they are about as xenophobic, if not more so, than the japanese.

all the more reason why we need alternatives to oil; screw them there and they're not so much of much.

**xerxes** · 13 Feb 07, 05:55

Those of you who have read Lenin takeover of Russia and the conquest of her Tsarist empire would probably recognize a similiar scenario in the early 90s and today ... history repeat itself yet it does not ...

**Ray** · 13 Feb 07, 09:44

Xerxes,

You have raised a very interesting and intellectually exciting issue.

Could you be more explicit?

**Ray** · 13 Feb 07, 13:41

Tuesday, February 13, 2007. Issue 3595. Page 1.

A President Looks to Shape His Legacy
By Simon Saradzhyan

Staff Writer

President Vladimir Putin's strongly worded speech in Munich on Saturday raised hackles in the West, but its primary purpose may have been to set out a new direction in Russian foreign policy for his successor, analysts said Monday.

The president's speech contained his most comprehensive and blunt criticism of the United States yet.

"With this speech Putin began the process of shaping his legacy," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs journal. "We will be hearing more programmatic statements like this."

Andrew Kuchins, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed that Putin was "laying a market down for his successor."

He noted that Putin's remarks were more in line with recent pronouncements by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov than those of First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, both considered leading candidates for the presidency in 2008.

"We do have to take seriously the fact that Putin's speech is much closer in tone to that of Ivanov than Medvedev, who was much more conciliatory" when addressing the World Economic Forum in Switzerland last month, Kuchins said.

In his speech, Putin not only berated Washington, but also touted Russia's resurgence as a major player on the international stage capable of standing up to the United States on a number of issues -- a stance that may reflect the ruling elite's overestimation of the country's long-term strength, analysts said.

"There was nothing really new in Putin's speech, but I suspect that in retrospect we may regard this as the most important foreign policy speech of his tenure as president," Kuchins said.

"The speech reads like a greatest-hits list of Russian grievances toward the West, and especially the United States, over the past 15 years on security issues," he said.

While attacking the United States and NATO, Putin refrained from singling out any European country for criticism -- an indication of his desire to develop ties with the European Union after his post-Sept. 11 overtures toward Washington failed to yield results.

"The relationship with Europe is central for both Putin and Russian foreign policy in general," Lukyanov said.

If Russia and Europe can reach a compromise on energy security policy, "the EU's interest in guaranteed energy supplies will outweigh everything else, and the EU could eventually begin to lobby on Russia's behalf in Washington," he said.

Putin's speech, in which he charged that the United States had "overstepped its borders in every way," seemed to come in response to recently announced U.S. plans to put a missile-defense system in Europe and to increasingly hostile rhetoric coming out of Washington.

Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told Congress that the United States could not predict developments in countries such as Russia, North Korea, China and Iran.

"Gates' testimony was not the biggest straw, but it was certainly the last," said Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the Washington-based World Security Institute.

The Foreign Ministry said Monday that it had asked Washington to clarify Gates' remark.

Safranchuk said the Kremlin's displeasure with U.S. policy had been building for several years, but Putin had avoided open confrontation because he did not want to "frame" his friend, U.S. President George W. Bush. He relied instead on quiet diplomacy to make his point.

"Putin finally decided to put his cards on the table when he realized that no one but the president could sort out the strategic issue of relations with the United States," Safranchuk said.

The president decided to make his feelings public as part of an effort to compel Bush to take a stand on Russian-U.S. relations before the presidential campaigns in both countries heat up, analysts said.

Putin is seeking to ensure an open dialogue with Washington to resolve problems in public, given the long list of private assurances that were not honored, including the tacit assurance that NATO would not expand to the east, Safranchuk said.

"This will either produce an open dialogue that reduces mutual suspicions, or the next round of the Cold War," he said.

Other analysts interviewed for this article disagreed that Putin's speech might herald a new Cold War, but most agreed that relations between Moscow and Washington would cool significantly as elections near, since most presidential hopefuls in the United States -- apart from Democrat Barack Obama -- have been critical of Russia.

In his speech, Putin expressed not just Moscow's frustration with what it perceives as U.S. indifference to Russia's national interests, but also to its increasing confidence that economic growth will continue in the medium term.

"The speech does reflect the confidence that Russia's recovery is long term," Kuchins said. "The point that Putin makes about the emergence of a real multipolar world is very significant, as is his emphasis on the role that the large emerging economies, known as BRICs [Brazil, Russia, India and China], will play."

Putin makes clear that these countries' economic power "will undoubtedly be reflected in growing political power, and the United States had better wrap its mind around dealing with that," he said.

Russian economic growth continues to depend largely on high world prices for energy and other natural resources. Analysts said Moscow's brinkmanship in its relations with Washington could therefore backfire if its global ambitions were to exceed its economic capacity.

Analysts cited the cases of China and India, which have reined in their foreign policy ambitions and refrained from openly challenging the United States despite the fact that their economies are already more diversified than Russia's.

"Russia underestimates its weaknesses and vulnerabilities and is too focused on positive factors. It could be headed for a serious blow," Safranchuk said, adding that Russia might have been better off following China's example and pursuing a more measured foreign policy.
A President Looks to Shape His Legacy

An interesting analysis.

Could restart the Cold War, but then Russia could be overestimating its strengths.

**Dreadnought** · 13 Feb 07, 14:43

Originally Posted by Ray

If one reads through the foregoing three news reports from Russia, it is a sure indication that Russia is really concerned and worried at having adversaries practically knocking at their door.

Hence, there are good reasons for Russia to get ballistic in rhetoric.

It is the same situation that the US faced when Russians brought in missiles into Cuba.

The US reaction was more militarily positive than what Russia has so far done.

Will they go further?

Is the Cold War starting again?

If so, what is the repercussion on the world in gneral and Middle East in particular?

Ray, Sir.

1) Could it be that Putin and newly appointed Gates come from two different sides of the fence but yet very simular "interesting" backgrounds. Both former spymasters during the Cold War. Perhaps Putin was not in this position with the former U.S. representative and now realizes he must confront one of his own matching/thinking as far as resume's are percieved.

Putin will be leaving office soon as we know and Im sure he will still twist an ear now and then in order to be heard like many politicians before him. Gates Im not sure of how long his tenure could be. Alot of people give him a thumbs up where as the majority are standing,watching and listening to see how he is percieved.

2) The Patriot systems being deployed as the missle shields are not offensive weapons rather defensive. These missles purpose are to intercept not threaten. Where as Russia during the Cold War stationed actual offensive weapons not 90 miles from our shores until ofcoarse they removed them because they wanted us to remove specific offensive missles stationed to close to home for their likeing.

As far as the future goes...IMO It will all change very quickly I imagine if North Korea negociates as they appear to be doing. This will have its own cascade effect on certain "idealisms".

**xerxes** · 13 Feb 07, 15:16

Originally Posted by Dreadnought

Putin will be leaving office soon as we know and Im sure he will still twist an ear now and then in order to be heard like many politicians before him. Gates Im not sure of how long his tenure could be. Alot of people give him a thumbs up where as the majority are standing,watching and listening to see how he is percieved.

putin may leave soon, but he will be leaving his groomed heir apprant on the Romanov throne

Originally Posted by Ray

Xerxes,

You have raised a very interesting and intellectually exciting issue.

Could you be more explicit?

yes, in a sense that when lenin took over Russia and proclaimed Soviet Republic of Russia in 1917, he promised freedom and independence for all formers provinces of the Tsarist empire: ukrain, finland etc. etc. but one by one in those newlly appointed nations similiar fifith column movent created Soviet Republics ... and by 1924 the Union of these Republics was formed and becamed the USSR which by definition has many nations as members. My point was that Lenin cleverly gave the illusion of independence while he reformed the empire in another way ... after 1991, again we saw similiar pattern of breaking up of the empire, but most of them central republics are still under the control of Cold warriors under the shadow of Moscow. The only ones out of the orbit are the ones that went under the shadow of the other side (NATO).

IMHO, no matter howmuch US tries to expand the NATO, at the end of the day the great power (Russia) that is seating in Moscow and at the junction of Euro-Asia controls the landmass of Eurasia, ... unless Russia is broken as a great power you will keep seeing various iteration of Russian Euro-asiactic empires, from Peter the Great's Romanov, to Lenin's Bolshevism, to Russian Federation under Putin, and another one when in 50 years the RUssian federation is no more

**Dreadnought** · 13 Feb 07, 15:19

[QUOTE=xerxes;343714][QUOTE=Dreadnought;343712]
Putin will be leaving office soon as we know and Im sure he will still twist an ear now and then in order to be heard like many politicians before him. Gates Im not sure of how long his tenure could be. Alot of people give him a thumbs up where as the majority are standing,watching and listening to see how he is percieved.

putin may leave office, but i suspect he will appoint his own groomed successor

Agreed. He has stated that he would not influence it in articles but as we know politicians his voice will be heard one way or another.

Another interesting development into this mix is how well the Chinese have recieved newly appointed Christopher Hill to these negociations.

Notice something VERY rare here in the works....

1) Russia's Putin unhappy or at the least unsure about Gates, his motives and his programs but on his way out of office none the less. He dont trust Gates and all the same Gates surely don't trust him either. But Gates remains as Putin is leaving office.

2) China pleased with Christopher Hill by showing we could talk, be resolved and be patient until the end. Apparently the Chinese media fancy him pretty well according to a few articles in the media this morning. Chinese media not U.S. media.

3) North Korea willing to negociate on equal terms instead of rhetoric and reaching a deal for their nuclear stand off.

Three communist nations all showing different sides of the coin all at once. Interesting to say the least.

Last but not least Iran has now striked a much softer tone towards rhetoric. We shall see where this leads in the near future.

**Ray** · 13 Feb 07, 18:04

I am glad this thread is looking at the issue seriously and not merely making it a verbiage match!

Dreadnought,

What is Putin's game plan.

Can Russia regain the superpower status that Putin seems to be thinking is around the corner?

**beka** · 15 Feb 07, 03:26

I think people underestimate Russia. Don't get me wrong it cannot compete man for man with the USA. But (shocker!) I think that Russia could militarize fairly quickly if it so desired... Look at how Stalin was able to militarize when he was attacked in World War II.

Also, I think some of Russia's plans are to build an alliance. For example an alliance with Russia/China and India would be very quickly unstoppable although there would be mutual mistrust so who knows if it would actually work.

**Parihaka** · 15 Feb 07, 03:43

Putin is pitching for the hoi polloi of Europe. They (the Europeans) are anti-American and pro-socialist, as evinced by the policies of the majority of countries in the EU.
By blowing a loud fart at the Americans, he makes himself more popular with the European masses and combined with his control over their energy supplies provides fertile ground for his successor to accomplish what the USSR could not: effective control of Europe and the exclusion of the US.

**Dreadnought** · 15 Feb 07, 13:28

Originally Posted by Ray

I am glad this thread is looking at the issue seriously and not merely making it a verbiage match!

Dreadnought,

What is Putin's game plan.

Can Russia regain the superpower status that Putin seems to be thinking is around the corner?

Ray, Sir

I would speculate what could be going on but as I say "speculate". I am no authority on how he operates nor what he will do. I will do a bit of research first however and attempt to connect some dots first.

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