Smoke billows from a power plant over the skies of Beijing. China expects its power shortages to end this year, relieving its fast-expanding economy of a seemingly intractable bottleneck
China expects its seemingly perennial energy shortages to end this year, only to risk facing the opposite problem of having too much power-generating capacity, state media and analysts say.
.
The elimination of the nation's widespread brown-outs will come about as new capacity comes online while growth in electricity demand slows, the China Daily reported.
.
"This marks a turning point in the electricity supply shortfalls of a few years ago," said Zhang Guobao, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning body.
.
China first reported failures to meet power demand in 2000 and the situation deteriorated steadily. In 2004, 24 of China's 31 provinces and regions suffered outages.
.
Many major power plants had run low on coal supplies due to bottlenecks in the industry's over-burdened transport networks and soaring demand stemming from the country's rapid economic growth.
.
On the supply side, the situation is now gradually being relieved, with a total installed capacity of 750 gigawatts by 2010, up from 500 gigawatts late last year, the paper said.
.
On the demand side, power consumption is expected to rise by less than seven percent annually over the next five years, down from annual increases of at least 10 percent during the past five years, the newspaper said.
.
This is a side effect from a recent government drive to curb over-investment in energy-intensive sectors such as steel and machinery, and to encourage growth in the service and high-tech IT industries, according to the report.
.
The abrupt increase will be initially welcomed by enterprises that have been screaming for more fuel in recent months, but it may backfire, analysts warned.
.
"They will probably have an over-supply problem very soon, after investing heavily in the power sector in recent years," said Yiping Huang, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.
.
"So what they'll likely have to do is start rationing new investment (in power plants)."
.
Power is not like more tangible commodities that can be easily transported around, and it is not an option to bring down the excess supply by selling it cheaply inside or outside of China's borders.
.
"Electricity doesn't travel very well. And there's no big power consumer among China's immediate neighbors that China can sell to," said Tai Hui, a Hong Kong-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank.
.
There are already signs that power producers are getting jittery, lobbying for the right to price their products higher when their own input, overwhelmingly coal, gets more expensive.
.
"The government should introduce a system that will pass the high fuel costs to end users," said Wang Yonggan, secretary general of the China Electricity Council, an industry consortium.
.
"Otherwise, electricity producers will suffer severe losses as fuel prices fluctuate."
.
Although market conditions could be tough for electricity producers, they might be able to find a market among companies that have so far resorted to stop-gap measures to keep up their production.
.
"What we could see would be companies that stop using their own diesel generators and buy from official suppliers," said Standard Chartered's Tai Hui.
.
The vast increase in new generating capacity has done little to change China's energy mix.
.
Most new capacity in China is coal-fired, and the fossil fuel will remain China's main energy source for decades to come even if its proportion of the nation's total power consumption is declining slowly.
.
The China Daily Monday quoted official statistics as saying the country's dependence on coal is expected to fall to 70.2 percent in 2010 from 75.6 percent last year. — AFP
China expects its seemingly perennial energy shortages to end this year, only to risk facing the opposite problem of having too much power-generating capacity, state media and analysts say.
.
The elimination of the nation's widespread brown-outs will come about as new capacity comes online while growth in electricity demand slows, the China Daily reported.
.
"This marks a turning point in the electricity supply shortfalls of a few years ago," said Zhang Guobao, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning body.
.
China first reported failures to meet power demand in 2000 and the situation deteriorated steadily. In 2004, 24 of China's 31 provinces and regions suffered outages.
.
Many major power plants had run low on coal supplies due to bottlenecks in the industry's over-burdened transport networks and soaring demand stemming from the country's rapid economic growth.
.
On the supply side, the situation is now gradually being relieved, with a total installed capacity of 750 gigawatts by 2010, up from 500 gigawatts late last year, the paper said.
.
On the demand side, power consumption is expected to rise by less than seven percent annually over the next five years, down from annual increases of at least 10 percent during the past five years, the newspaper said.
.
This is a side effect from a recent government drive to curb over-investment in energy-intensive sectors such as steel and machinery, and to encourage growth in the service and high-tech IT industries, according to the report.
.
The abrupt increase will be initially welcomed by enterprises that have been screaming for more fuel in recent months, but it may backfire, analysts warned.
.
"They will probably have an over-supply problem very soon, after investing heavily in the power sector in recent years," said Yiping Huang, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.
.
"So what they'll likely have to do is start rationing new investment (in power plants)."
.
Power is not like more tangible commodities that can be easily transported around, and it is not an option to bring down the excess supply by selling it cheaply inside or outside of China's borders.
.
"Electricity doesn't travel very well. And there's no big power consumer among China's immediate neighbors that China can sell to," said Tai Hui, a Hong Kong-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank.
.
There are already signs that power producers are getting jittery, lobbying for the right to price their products higher when their own input, overwhelmingly coal, gets more expensive.
.
"The government should introduce a system that will pass the high fuel costs to end users," said Wang Yonggan, secretary general of the China Electricity Council, an industry consortium.
.
"Otherwise, electricity producers will suffer severe losses as fuel prices fluctuate."
.
Although market conditions could be tough for electricity producers, they might be able to find a market among companies that have so far resorted to stop-gap measures to keep up their production.
.
"What we could see would be companies that stop using their own diesel generators and buy from official suppliers," said Standard Chartered's Tai Hui.
.
The vast increase in new generating capacity has done little to change China's energy mix.
.
Most new capacity in China is coal-fired, and the fossil fuel will remain China's main energy source for decades to come even if its proportion of the nation's total power consumption is declining slowly.
.
The China Daily Monday quoted official statistics as saying the country's dependence on coal is expected to fall to 70.2 percent in 2010 from 75.6 percent last year. — AFP China expects its seemingly perennial energy shortages to end this year, only to risk facing the opposite problem of having too much power-generating capacity, state media and analysts say.
.
The elimination of the nation's widespread brown-outs will come about as new capacity comes online while growth in electricity demand slows, the China Daily reported.
.
"This marks a turning point in the electricity supply shortfalls of a few years ago," said Zhang Guobao, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning body.
.
China first reported failures to meet power demand in 2000 and the situation deteriorated steadily. In 2004, 24 of China's 31 provinces and regions suffered outages.
.
Many major power plants had run low on coal supplies due to bottlenecks in the industry's over-burdened transport networks and soaring demand stemming from the country's rapid economic growth.
.
On the supply side, the situation is now gradually being relieved, with a total installed capacity of 750 gigawatts by 2010, up from 500 gigawatts late last year, the paper said.
.
On the demand side, power consumption is expected to rise by less than seven percent annually over the next five years, down from annual increases of at least 10 percent during the past five years, the newspaper said.
.
This is a side effect from a recent government drive to curb over-investment in energy-intensive sectors such as steel and machinery, and to encourage growth in the service and high-tech IT industries, according to the report.
.
The abrupt increase will be initially welcomed by enterprises that have been screaming for more fuel in recent months, but it may backfire, analysts warned.
.
"They will probably have an over-supply problem very soon, after investing heavily in the power sector in recent years," said Yiping Huang, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.
.
"So what they'll likely have to do is start rationing new investment (in power plants)."
.
Power is not like more tangible commodities that can be easily transported around, and it is not an option to bring down the excess supply by selling it cheaply inside or outside of China's borders.
.
"Electricity doesn't travel very well. And there's no big power consumer among China's immediate neighbors that China can sell to," said Tai Hui, a Hong Kong-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank.
.
There are already signs that power producers are getting jittery, lobbying for the right to price their products higher when their own input, overwhelmingly coal, gets more expensive.
.
"The government should introduce a system that will pass the high fuel costs to end users," said Wang Yonggan, secretary general of the China Electricity Council, an industry consortium.
.
"Otherwise, electricity producers will suffer severe losses as fuel prices fluctuate."
.
Although market conditions could be tough for electricity producers, they might be able to find a market among companies that have so far resorted to stop-gap measures to keep up their production.
.
"What we could see would be companies that stop using their own diesel generators and buy from official suppliers," said Standard Chartered's Tai Hui.
.
The vast increase in new generating capacity has done little to change China's energy mix.
.
Most new capacity in China is coal-fired, and the fossil fuel will remain China's main energy source for decades to come even if its proportion of the nation's total power consumption is declining slowly.
.
The China Daily Monday quoted official statistics as saying the country's dependence on coal is expected to fall to 70.2 percent in 2010 from 75.6 percent last year. — AFP China expects its seemingly perennial energy shortages to end this year, only to risk facing the opposite problem of having too much power-generating capacity, state media and analysts say.
.
The elimination of the nation's widespread brown-outs will come about as new capacity comes online while growth in electricity demand slows, the China Daily reported.
.
"This marks a turning point in the electricity supply shortfalls of a few years ago," said Zhang Guobao, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the top planning body.
.
China first reported failures to meet power demand in 2000 and the situation deteriorated steadily. In 2004, 24 of China's 31 provinces and regions suffered outages.
.
Many major power plants had run low on coal supplies due to bottlenecks in the industry's over-burdened transport networks and soaring demand stemming from the country's rapid economic growth.
.
On the supply side, the situation is now gradually being relieved, with a total installed capacity of 750 gigawatts by 2010, up from 500 gigawatts late last year, the paper said.
.
On the demand side, power consumption is expected to rise by less than seven percent annually over the next five years, down from annual increases of at least 10 percent during the past five years, the newspaper said.
.
This is a side effect from a recent government drive to curb over-investment in energy-intensive sectors such as steel and machinery, and to encourage growth in the service and high-tech IT industries, according to the report.
.
The abrupt increase will be initially welcomed by enterprises that have been screaming for more fuel in recent months, but it may backfire, analysts warned.
.
"They will probably have an over-supply problem very soon, after investing heavily in the power sector in recent years," said Yiping Huang, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.
.
"So what they'll likely have to do is start rationing new investment (in power plants)."
.
Power is not like more tangible commodities that can be easily transported around, and it is not an option to bring down the excess supply by selling it cheaply inside or outside of China's borders.
.
"Electricity doesn't travel very well. And there's no big power consumer among China's immediate neighbors that China can sell to," said Tai Hui, a Hong Kong-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank.
.
There are already signs that power producers are getting jittery, lobbying for the right to price their products higher when their own input, overwhelmingly coal, gets more expensive.
.
"The government should introduce a system that will pass the high fuel costs to end users," said Wang Yonggan, secretary general of the China Electricity Council, an industry consortium.
.
"Otherwise, electricity producers will suffer severe losses as fuel prices fluctuate."
.
Although market conditions could be tough for electricity producers, they might be able to find a market among companies that have so far resorted to stop-gap measures to keep up their production.
.
"What we could see would be companies that stop using their own diesel generators and buy from official suppliers," said Standard Chartered's Tai Hui.
.
The vast increase in new generating capacity has done little to change China's energy mix.
.
Most new capacity in China is coal-fired, and the fossil fuel will remain China's main energy source for decades to come even if its proportion of the nation's total power consumption is declining slowly.
.
The China Daily Monday quoted official statistics as saying the country's dependence on coal is expected to fall to 70.2 percent in 2010 from 75.6 percent last year. — AFP
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