Thread: China's general economy info

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05...s/index_01.htm

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx2426760.html

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Updating with more details and background)

BEIJING (AFX) - China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow between 8.3 pct and 9.3 pct in 2006, the State Information Center (SIC) said in a report published in the Shanghai Securities News.

The government think tank said in an earlier report that it expects China's 2005 GDP to grow 9.4 pct.

GDP is expected to grow 8.3 pct, 8.8 pct or 9.3 pct under the three scenarios for this year released by the think tank.

The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise 1.5-2.5 pct, the report added.

The think tank said in an earlier report that it expects China's 2005 CPI to grow two pct.

Growth in fixed-assets is expected to slow but will continue to rise sharply, it said.

China's urban fixed-asset investment rose 27.6 pct to 5.58 trln yuan in the first 10 months of 2005.

According to predictions by the SIC in November, overall fixed-asset investment is expected to grow 25.3 pct in 2005 while urban fixed-asset investment is seen rising 27 pct.

The SIC said it expects consumption to make a greater contribution to economic expansion in 2006, with retail sales to grow 12.5-13.5 pct.

The government think tank said earlier it sees China's 2005 retail sales up 12.8 pct.

But the report noted that high oil prices will likely hurt the automobile industry.

According to figures from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2003 Chinese automobile makers sold 4.39 mln vehicles, up 34.21 pct from the year before. In 2004, sales grew only 15 pct and they were up 12 pct over the first 11 months of 2005.

It added property sector growth will also be held back by the government's cooling measures.

Is said it expects the growth in China's trade surplus to slow to 20 bln usd in 2006 from 65 bln usd in 2005 as the yuan appreciates gradually against the US dollar.

China's exports are expected to grow 18-21 pct in 2006, while imports are likely to rise by 16-22 pct, it said.

The government think-tank said in an earlier report that it expects China's 2005 exports to increase 29 pct year-on-year, while imports are forecast to grow 19 pct.

It added it expects tight energy supplies, a surge in trade disputes, rising production prices, and the government's cooling measures to also hold back export growth, the report said.

The report suggested a prudent monetary policy and a moderate loosening of credit control to support economic growth.

(1 usd = 8.1 yuan)

jqf/dg/dk

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english...ent_507938.htm

By Gong Zhengzheng (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-12-30 06:21


China's shipbuilding tonnage is expected to reach a record high of more than 12.5 million this year, grabbing 17 per cent of the global shipbuilding market, up from 14.3 per cent in 2004.

The tonnage this year will grow by some 42 per cent from 8.8 million last year, said Zhu Rujing, an analyst with Beijing-based China Shipbuilding Economy Research Centre.

Growth of China's shipbuilding tonnage will account for most of the global growth, which will increase to 71.2 million this year from 61.4 million in 2004, Zhu said.

According to statistics from China Shipbuilding Industry Association, the nation's shipbuilding tonnage jumped by 49 per cent year-on-year to 8.92 million in the first three quarters of this year.

Zhu predicted the nation's shipbuilding tonnage will continue to grow steadily in 2006 as a result of mounting capacity of domestic shipyards and abundant orders.

Shipbuilding tonnage in China is expected to reach 15 million in 2006, which will enable the nation to hold 20 per cent of the world's shipbuilding tonnage, he said.

Despite the rapid growth, China will continue to be the world's third biggest shipbuilding country following Japan and South Korea, Zhu said.

Both Japan and South Korea now control more than 30 per cent of global shipbuilding market.

"Many Chinese shipyards appear short of capacity to satisfy the world's strong ship demand," Zhu said.

On Tuesday, China Shipbuilding Industry Corp (CSIC), one of the nation's biggest conglomerates in the industry, signed a contract with a domestic shipping group to build 16 vessels, including very large crude carriers and other ships for liquefied petroleum gas and refined oil.

The deal was worth nearly 6 billion yuan (US$740 million).

CSIC said its shipbuilding tonnage would reach 3 million this year.

However, Zhu warned of overcapacity starting from the second half of 2008 because domestic shipyards are developing massively, and growth of global ship demand will slow down.

He estimated that total shipbuilding capacity in China would exceed 30 million tons by 2010, up from nearly 14 million at present.

CSIC said last month that it aimed to have a total capacity of more than 10 million tons by 2010.

Dalian Shipbuilding Industry (Group) Co Ltd, China's biggest single shipyard affiliated to CSIC, plans to expand its capacity to 6 million tons in 2010 from 2.6 million now.

Foreign shipbuilding giants, such as those from South Korea and Japan, are accelerating penetration into China, with some hoping to gain controlling stakes in Chinese shipyards, and even build wholly-owned shipyards.

But informed sources said China will ban foreign shipbuilding groups from doing this, with an anticipated new policy on the nation's shipbuilding sector.

China's ship exports have also been growing rapidly in recent years due to booming global ship demand.

Zhu said ship exports would exceed 7 million tons this year.

Statistics showed Chinese shipyards built 5.44 million tons of ships for export from January to September this year, up 30 per cent from a year ago.

The ship export value surged by 45.5 per cent to US$3.18 billion during the period.

http://english.people.com.cn/200601/...05_233149.html

China's Ministry of Communications will join hands with provinces along the Yangtze River to deepen the river's watercourse to facilitate transportation of third and fourth generations of container ships.

The project will begin this year and last three years, costing an estimated 15 billion yuan (1.88 billion U.S. dollars), said Cao Desheng, deputy director of the Waterway Transportation Bureau under the Ministry of Communications.

The funds will be spent on building infrastructure projects of navigable courses and a number of ports along the river, Cao said.

In the next three years, the water section downstream Nanjing, capital of Jiangsu Province in east China, will be dredged to facilitate navigation of third and fourth generation of container ships on all weather conditions as well as 100,000 dead-weight-tonnage ships.

By 2010, the section downstream Anqing in east China's Anhui Province, will be dredged to serve navigation of 5,000-10,000 dead-weight-tonnage ocean-going ships, Cao said.

Efforts will be made to expand the navigable course to Shuifu of Yunnan Province in southwest China on the upper reaches, he said.

Statistics from the Ministry of Communications show only about 15 percent of Yangtze's navigable capacity is being utilized.

Source: Xinhua

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_4014812.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 5 (Xinhuanet) -- China's 6,300-kilometre-long Yangtze River has become the world's busiest freshwater route, with its annual freight volume surpassing those of the Mississippi of the United States and the Rhine of Europe, said the Chinese Ministry of Communications.

Cao Desheng, vice director of the ministry's Water Transport Department, said that the annual freight volume of the Yangtze River is now 1.6 times that of the Mississippi, which stands at 460 million tons.

The freight volume is also 2.3 times that of the Rhine, said Cao.

Cao said the Yangtze River has been the most important inland waterway in China, which transported 80 percent of the total cargoes shipped on China's all inland waterways.

By the end of 2004, major ports along the Yangtzr River handled a total of 640 million tons of cargoes, 2.8 times that of the year 1995.

As the largest river in China and the third largest river in the world, the Yangtze River starts at the foothills of the 6,621-meter snow-covered Geladandong, the main peak of the Tanggula Mountains in Qinghai Province.

The river flows past Qinghai, Tibet, Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai, where it empties into the East China Sea. Important cities along the way are Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai.

The total gross domestic product (GDP) of all cities along the Yangtze River accounts for 41 percent of the national total, according to governmental statistics. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_4018095.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 6 (Xinhuanet) -- China plans to input a total of 160 billion yuan (about 20 billion US dollars) on railway construction in 2006, Minister of Railways Liu Zhijun said here Friday.

At the national railways working conference in Beijing, Liu said the construction of 13 new express passenger rail routes will start this year, with the pace of another 11 rail routes under way to be accelerated.

The year 2006 will witness a large-scale railway building momentum in China, said Liu, noting that the ministry will launch a total of 87 railways projects this year.

As a step to renovate part of the country's outdated low-speed railways, a total length of 3,860 electrified rail routes will go into service across the country in 2006, Liu said.

Meanwhile, two key projects of the railways sector will become operational in 2006, said the minister, one is the highest-latitude Qinghai-Tibet Railway which will go into trial operation in July, and the other is the electrified Beijing-Shanghai Railway to be in service in the year.

Preparations for China's sixth large-scale speed-lift for railways are also scheduled to be completed before October this year, the minister said. Enditem

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/b...ig_travel_time

BEIJING, China (UPI) -- Beijing`s two railway stations are expected to carry 13.6 million passengers over China`s Spring Festival and New Year, officials say.

The new year falls on Jan. 29 this year. The peak transportation period for the Spring Festival begins Jan. 14 and last 40 days.

Millions of Chinese return home for family reunions during Spring Festival, an occasion similar to Christmas in the western countries, Xinhuanet said.

The Beijing Western Railway Station expects to carry 7.46 million passengers and the Beijing Railway Station 6.16 million over the holiday period, about a 6.8-percent increase overall.

Forecasters expect passenger flow throughout China to hit 2,042 billion people during the festival period.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_4018848.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 6 (Xinhuanet) -- China is estimated to spend 12 trillion yuan (1.5 trillion U.S. dollars) on its energy and transportation sectors in the upcoming five years, Friday's China Securities Journal reported.

 In the next five years, the annual investment in the coal industry will be increased by 60 billion yuan or 70 billion yuan ayear, the paper quoted a report made by the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)as saying.

The report outlines prospects of investment trend of seven industries in China's 11th Five-Year plan (2006-2010) period.

During the period, investment in the oil sector will grow by 40billion yuan or 50 billion yuan a year, while that in natural gas field, by 20 billion yuan or 30 billion yuan a year, according to the report.

At the same time, China will spend an average 500 billion yuan or 600 billion yuan on installing new power-generating units each year, and another 500 billion yuan or 600 billion yuan on building power grids.

The transportation sector will get 6.5 trillion yuan of investment, representing an annual increase of 18.6 percent.

By the year 2010, China's railway network is expected to reach 85,000 kilometers and the mileage of highway roads will be 2.3 million kilometers.

The port handling capacity in the country is estimated to reach4.4 billion tons. The airports for civilian use will be increased to 180. Enditem

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story....MeTzwnVBMrHDge

Date: Friday, January 06, 2006 10:11:51 PM EST

BEIJING, Jan. 6 (UPI) -- China plans to centralize collection of economic statistics into a single agency to ensure accuracy.

The Economic Daily reported the state council has given the National Bureau of Statistics responsibility for all data collection beginning Feb. 1.

Local officials reportedly have a habit of inflating production figures to advance their careers. That has created a gap between national figures and those calculated by aggregating local statistics.

The bureau, which employs 95,000 people, began taking over provincial data collection last year.

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http://www.indiacar.net/news/n20608.htm

Visionary Vehicles Founder and CEO Malcolm Bricklin today proudly congratulated his friend and partner Chery Automobile Company President Yin Tongyao for winning China's prestigious Economic Person of the Year award for 2005. Mr. Yin also received an unprecedented special prize honoring "Self-development & Creation" for leading the Chinese automobile industry in four extraordinary categories.

- Chery is the Chinese automobile export leader -selling in 38 countries with 41 key franchise dealers. In 2005 President Yin prepared to make international export history by announcing Chery has teamed with U.S. based Visionary Vehicles to bring the first full line of Chinese luxury cars to North America.

- Chery leads China in single brand automotive sales. Chery has sold more than 100,000 of its popular QQ model, which represents a 129.8% increase over last year. With monthly sales of close to 10,000 cars, the QQ has been on top of for China's minicar sales list for a successive 11 months.

- Chery is China's automotive growth leader. With 185,000 automobiles sold in 2005, Chery more than doubled its 2004 volume.

- Chery created China's first self-developed engine brand, ACTECO.

These honors were announced at the 2005 CCTV Awards Ceremony held in Beijing on December 28 2005.

Mr. Bricklin said he could not be more thrilled to see Mr. Yin receive these honors. "Yin Tongyao is an extraordinary automotive visionary and strategist who is leading Chery to history-making achievements both inside and outside China. We are delighted to be working with this talented executive and his aggressive and innovative team."

http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dl.../1012&refsect=

BEIJING -- More vehicles were sold in China last year than in Japan, making China the world's second largest auto market after the United States, with almost 6 million units sold, a state newspaper said on Friday.

But if imports of 160,000 were excluded, China was still number three, the People's Daily said.

Chinese vehicle sales last year rose 14 percent from 2004 to 5.8 million units, the newspaper said, refering only to China-made products. Sales this year of vehicles -- including everything from cars to buses and trucks -- are expected to grow 10 to 15 percent to 6.4 million to 6.6 million units, the report said, citing figures from the official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

But sales of passengers vehicles, including sedans and SUVs, jumped 21 percent to nearly 4 million units, the newspaper said, bouncing back from a relatively lackluster rise of 15 percent in 2004. In 2003, sales almost doubled.

Car sales had been slowing, due in part to Beijing's crackdown on easy auto credit to help cool an overheating Chinese economy.

The stronger performance in 2005 was partly due to healthy sales in secondary markets in poorer inland provinces, the paper said, quoting an official at the auto association.

China has turned into a boom for automakers struggling under discounting in saturated mature markets such as Europe and the United States.

Earlier this month, General Motors reported a 35 percent rise in China sales to 665,390 vehicles in 2005, exceeding the combined 564,300 units sold by Volkswagen AG's two Chinese joint ventures.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=3572

China's alumina output is expected to hit 9.5 million metric tons this year, up 11.8% from 8.5 million tons in 2005, state-run China Securities Journal says.

Citing Kang Yi, the chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the newspaper says production of primary aluminium is likely to rise to 8.5 million tons in 2006 from an estimated 7.8 million tons last year.

The newspaper gives no reason for the projected output increases.

China's annual alumina output accounts for around 11% of the world's production every year, while the country's primary aluminium output accounts for 22.5%, according to the newspaper.

Alumina is a key raw material used to make aluminium.

China, the world's largest aluminium producer and an important exporter of the metal, relies heavily on imports to meet domestic alumina demand.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/13/news...hina_fdi.reut/

Hong Kong remains top source, accounting for about 30 percent of the total.
January 13, 2006: 2:27 PM EST



BEIJING (Reuters) - China attracted more than $60 billion in foreign direct investment in 2005 for the second year in a row as firms flocked to take advantage of the country's low wages and fast-growing market of 1.3 billion people.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) totaled $60.33 billion last year, just shy of the 2004 record of $60.63 billion, after a $7.2 billion spurt in December, the Commerce Ministry said Friday.


"In 2005, foreign investment into China maintained sound momentum and the quality of foreign investment improved," Chong Quan, a ministry spokesman, said in a statement.

The ministry said the data excluded the rising tide of investment into China's banks, brokers and insurance firms.

FDI has been crucial to the export boom that has turned China into the world's third-largest trading nation. Foreign-owned firms account for almost 60 percent of the country's exports.

China has raked in more than $1 billion a week in FDI since it joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001, a pace that experts say might moderate in 2006 and beyond, but not by much.

"I think the general trend is that there is more to come, but maybe at a slower pace," said Edgar Doerig, head of the economic and commercial section at the Swiss Embassy in Beijing.

One possible damper on FDI is a long-awaited plan to unify the tax rate paid by domestic and foreign-invested companies, said Xing Houyuan, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank under the Ministry of Commerce.

She said the change, which is expected to raise the tax rate by foreign firms, would probably have the greatest impact on investment in sectors already facing the threat of overcapacity.

"I expect foreign investment in sectors such as manufacturing, processing and real estate will shrink, but investment might increase in the services sector when it opens more to the outside in 2006," she said.

Many foreign firms enjoy preferential income tax rates as low as 15 percent set by local authorities while domestic firms are typically taxed at 33 percent. No date has been set for a unified business tax rate.

Services, inland to prosper
Min Tang, chief economist with the Asian Development Bank in Beijing, agreed that the pattern of FDI was likely to shift towards services like banking and away from manufacturing.

"Some of the labor-intensive, cheap labor type of export-orientated FDI will gradually move more to the center of China and, if not, move out of the country," he said.

Enticing such investment inland instead of letting it slip away to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh would depend on the government creating the right incentives, Tang said.

"Whether China will continue to achieve such high-speed growth in foreign investment in the mid- to longer term is questionable unless China develops new policies," he said.

Hong Kong remained the top source of China's FDI in 2005, accounting for $17.95 billion, or 29.75 percent, of the total.

FDI from the 15 core members of the European Union jumped 22.5 percent, while FDI from the United States dropped 22.3 pct, the ministry said without giving figures.

Charles Martin, president of the American Chamber of Commerce-China, said he was confident China would remain attractive to foreign investors after business tax is unified.

"I think there will continue to be some great tax deals in the inland provinces, in western provinces. And I think in high technology there will continue to be some very good opportunities for tax relief on the coastal areas," he said.

China's booming eastern provinces drew 2.59 percent more FDI in 2005, while FDI into the poorer central and western provinces jumped 27.75 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively.

With China's economy and incomes rising fast, Martin named banking, financial services and healthcare as promising sectors for foreign investors.

Although investment in new manufacturing facilities was likely to slow, Martin said he expected more foreign investors to expand capacity through mergers and acquisitions.

"I've seen more private equity firms coming through here in the past year than in the previous year, and I think that trend continues," he said.

http://www.nrdc.org/news/newsDetails.asp?nID=1988

1/13/2006 8:36:00 AM
Copyright 2005 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


BEIJING - China has told power companies that 5 percent of their electricity will have to come from renewable energy sources by 2010, as the country tries to diversify away from fossil fuels to power its fast-growing economy, a news report said Friday.

Zhang Guobao, vice-minister of China's top economic planning body, said the quota would increase to 10 percent by 2020, according to the China Daily newspaper. Wind and solar power are included but nuclear and hydropower are not, Zhang said.

"Although the proposed percentage might not sound like a big number, it will mean a substantial increase for China and it will boost the use of these new energies," Zhang said.

China, the world's second-biggest producer of greenhouse gases after the United States, has promoted cleaner and renewable energy in hopes of reducing air pollution from its surging fossil fuel use and the potential security risks of growing dependence on imported oil.

In recent years, China has become more reliant on imported fuel to feed the surging demand for energy in its modernizing cities.

But many cities are facing chronic energy shortages with scheduled blackouts and industries forced to shift production to weekends when demand is less.

Total installed capacity of all of China's power plants last year reached 508 gigawatts, up nearly 15 percent from the previous year, but still falls short of the country's needs.

Demand is expected to exceed 1,000 gigawatts within 15 years, according to the report.

The quota applies to large power companies with an installed capacity of more than 5 gigawatts. Analysts estimate that China has 15 such companies generating about half of the country's power supply.

China's larger power companies currently rely mainly on coal and other fossil fuels with renewable energy making up a negligible percentage of their output.

Power grids that use energy generated from wind or solar power would be able to charge higher electricity tariffs, Zhang said, adding it was just one of several financial incentives for companies to explore alternative energy sources.

Datang International Power Generation Co. Ltd., one of China's top power companies, said it plans to cut its coal-fired output from the current 99 percent to 75 percent by 2014, according to the report.

Datang, and Huaneng Group - China's biggest power company - also have both invested in wind turbines.

In another development, China and Germany agreed to invest US$121 million (€100 million) in renewable energy projects, including a wind power plant in the eastern city of Qingdao, a spokeswoman for the German Embassy said.

Coastal Qingdao will host the water sports for the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the project aims to have the five wind turbines up and generating power by then, the China Daily reported.

CNPC is one of the top 3 petroleum companies in China. The other two are Sino-Petrochem Group and CNOOC (offshore oil).

http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/2238/200.../65@293300.htm

2006-1-14 1:28:05 CRIENGLISH.com

Crude oil and natural gas output of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reached 105.85 million tons and 36.7 billion cubic meters in 2005, up 1.2 and 28 percent respectively, company sources said on Friday.

CNPC's production has reached its maximum level in history, said Chen Geng, CNPC's general manager.

CNPC's revenue and profit in 2005 was 672 billion yuan (84 billion U.S. dollars) and 175.6 billion yuan, up 17.8 and 36.3 percent respectively.

Figures show in 2005, the CNPC found petroleum and natural gas reserves of 570 million tons and 358 billion cubic meters in China, up 10 percent and 78 percent year on year.

During the year, the CNPC refined crude oil of 110.61 million tons, and produced refined oil of 71.14 million tons, up 5.53 million tons from 2004.

In October 2005, the CNPC successfully acquired Canada based PetroKazakhstan Inc. (PK), which owned 12 oilfields and exploration licenses in 6 blocks in Kazakhstan, with great exploration potential.

Last year, the CNPC signed five overseas exploration contracts, with revenue from overseas oil and gas service jumping 58.1 percent to 29.3 billion yuan, said Chen.

The foreign trade volume of CNPC in 2005 reached more than 20 billion U.S. dollars, he said.

"2005 is a harvest year for CNPC's international service," he said.

In 2006, the CNPC will enhance domestic oil and gas exploration and development, he said, placing a focus on oil exploration in western area.

The CNPC is planning to find petroleum and natural gas reserves of another 500 million tons and 300 billion cubic meters in 2006, with output growing 4.7 percent to more than 140 million oil equivalent, said he.

Industrial statistics show that China imports 40 percent of its total oil consumption. Owing to soaring world oil prices, the country has seen its refined oil price rise five times in 2005.

(Source: Xinhua)