The US has made it clear to Taipei to shut the hell up about Independence and there is not a whole lot of popular support for it.
The PRC will attack. They have no other choice. The CCP has stated its existence on it. To go back on that tenet would tantamount to deligitimizing their rule.
The US is legally obligated to come to defence of Taiwan but in reality, they don't need to. Taiwan is too tough for the PLA to crack. Their only chance militarily is to establish the political conditions for a negotiated settlement.
WAB: CDF & TMF's work on the PLA WZC in the TW Context
Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 19 Oct 06, at 16:40.
Chimo
Lack of political will and that their top Generals, ie General Cao, sees no need to rush the system.Originally Posted by tomexe
It's the landbased version of the Chinese JL-2 rocket.
The answer is simple. Who is stupid enough to fight a nuclear war?
Chimo
If I have to list the top 10 military development, it would be (in no particular order)
1) Deng Xia Peng cutting off defence funds, forcing the PLA to get their heads out of Mao's butt hole.
2) The 1979 1st Sino-VN War which woke the PLA up,
3) The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan which showed the PLA's reliance on terrain didn't really stand a chance.
4) The Kuwait War which showed just how far behind the Chinese were.
5) General Cao Gangchun, a combat experienced gunner in the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War, who had the clout to get money and the management skills needed not to waste it (well, not as much, this is an army after all).
6) Brigadization - litterally chopping the fat out of division and forming a single brigade out of the Hero Regiment (ie, the shock regiment) and getting rid of the other other two half ass regiments that were not up to par.
7) War Zone Campaign - the 1st real attempt at a cohesive military doctrine since the People's War garbage.
8) A Great deal of R&D and not afraid to make mistakes. The Light Mechanized Regiment is the example. I see a whole lot of mistakes being made but the Chinese are learning in what not to do - which is far more important than learning what to do.
9) A real combined arms thinking. Currently, the LMR is a single battle group, the 1st time I've seen such a formation in the PLA. The battle group concept dates back to the Wehrmacht during WWII.
10) Patience. General Cao has stated that he needed 20 years just to produce the officer corps needed for a true modernization effort.
Chimo
An eye opener thread
Well, I think the original post looks like something that serves the "China menace" theory.
I used to stay shortly in the PLA, only as a medical trainee:-D
And I quitted the army well before I know anything like this kind of info~ 'coz I was beyond fed up by the snarls. Human beings should have other ways to talk and communicate.
And as to:
Well, you are not alone. I may be able and qualified to carry out surgeries in the near future but no surgical attacks.
It takes time for some people to wake up and smell the coffee. As I said above, the original article was probably serving for some sort of "China menace" theory. At least I heard that there is such a waiting principle for PLA. They get everything technically "ready" but very few produced. Otherwise as the time goes on some of the fancy stuff 10 or 20 years ago can only rust in peace, without any war breaking out. That would be a waste of money.
I came on board here when I was googling articles about N. Korea's nuke test, only finding it so military-oriented. Do you Aussies really need a big army/AF? Personally I think Howard's been pretty clever with the US-Aus thing although he can be a nuisance with some other issues. I think China was only not lucky enough to be located where Australia is now.The pragmatical point here is you only have something when you really need it. What Aussies need to do now is to keep the Indonesian fishermen hunting sharks for fins out of your waters, or maybe if you guys are so environmental friendly you can hapoon a couple of whale hunters JUST FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Basically I can't imagine why Australia would ever be engaged in a war.
You guys together with lots of people in the world kicked some J butts decades ago and they learnt their lesson. Now everything's fine over there. Well, so long as Kim's nukes can't reach there.
China would be mainly looking internally I guess unless people like Chen SB unilaterally tries to challenge the status quo. I think OoE may be right about lots of the things.
Going to the gym is not a sign of being shallow!
Get over it~:rolleyes:
If the danger of a nuclear counterattack is small, ANYONE would use nuclear weapons.
But a bigger puzzle is if someone starts taking out your nuclear weapons, but dont use nuclear weapons themselves, what do you do?
This is how the Chinese view a nuclear exchange.
From China's Sharp Sword -- A Record on Strategic Missile Force Marching Toward Modernization in big Strides
At a certain “Red Army” battlefield where a mountain breeze was softly blowing, the harsh sound of siren suddenly pierced the air. As “Red Army” battle personnel urgently withdrew, several “Blue Army” missiles exploded within some 100 square kilometers of the “Red Army” position. In an instant, the ground vibrated vigorously and the area was engulfed in fire. The entire site became a “death zone.”
In response to the sudden “nuclear attack,” scores of “Red Army” “cavalries” rapidly entered the “nuclear-attack zone” to carry out urgent nuclear and chemical pollution monitoring, cleaning, and battlefield rescue.
After safety taking refuge in a completely sealed “underground shelter” for several days, the “Red Army” strategic missile force began to carry out a “nuclear counterattack.” One after another, missiles shot up into the sky. Even before tremors in the mountains subsided, the target area had begun to convulse.
Chimo
India needs to mass produce missiles developed by the IGMDP if it wants to stand a change against China.
I have no idea what I'm doing. Honestly!
Today, it was proven all above are just garbage.As for the JL-2, the Chinese have stopped working on them.
The rest of the article continues along these lines. It has not caught up with the fact that the Chinese have suspended deliveries of SU-27s from Russia. Maybe, they're trying to get better models but the fact remains that their numbers are now frozen for at least 3 years.
And you're the garbage there is.
Chimo
All that the USA has, Russia and China have. This means whatever secret technology the USA comes up with, Russia and China will have an alternate solution.
what a dialogue.... i'l write that down sumwhere..
About China's military modernization, here is an analysis of the RAND Corporation.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG334.pdf
A good beginner article but already long out of date. You might try Colonel Denis Blasko's latest at Joint Force Quarterly
JFQ - Focus on China
Chimo
I haven't read the whole post but my opinion....
#1 thru #10........modernization developments...........
COPY RUSSIAN AND THE U.S. TECHNOLOGIES!!!
As long as I can steal a Gun owned by someone else to fend for my property, it should be okay.
Are you proposing that every time, a country decides to do something, it has to start from reinventing the wheel from the scratch?
By this logic, Credit for every single Ballistic Missiles[in whosoever's arsenal's it is]should go to Germans[remember their V2's]
And BTW, we just reactivatied a long dead thread
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