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Thread: Deterrence as an Operational Objective question

  1. #16
    Fully Dressed Military Professional Deltacamelately's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Major, to answer your question. I don't know except maybe a proxy (ie Pakistan) against India but then, the PLA had absolutely no confidence in the 1980s in Pakistan in prevailing against India and hence had to plan an all out war.
    Sir,

    Juxtaposed to this - Could the PLA plan to go to war and subsequent pillaging against a weaker nuclear power, an aka Pakistan to deter a bigger adversary, read India?
    And on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    Indeed some people are calling for a war with Vietnam to partly settle the Spratly dispute,
    I have read the proposed invasion plan last year, maybe made by those people. It made me laugh so hard because a land invasion from northern border and an amphibious landing at the middle coast of Vietnam MUST be done. Please tell whoever made that plan that is against spirit of Sun Tzu to make war with whom you don't know well or don't know at all. Also tell them to restrain because it is not the right time for China to drop its "peaceful" mask.

    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    Vietnam makes the most activities in that place and the least restraints.
    It has nothing to do with "most activities" or "least restraints". The simple reason is many Chinese and especially Chinese army still hate Vietnam. In my opinion it is very similar to relationship between Germany and Poland before WWII. The difference and an advantage for China is Vietnam has no ally to back us.

    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    But if a war is ever fought over that matter, it won’t be a deterrence of any one.
    Yes, it is. Attacking one clamaint would warn off the others and show the world that sea belongs to whom.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deltacamelately View Post
    Sir,

    Juxtaposed to this - Could the PLA plan to go to war and subsequent pillaging against a weaker nuclear power, an aka Pakistan to deter a bigger adversary, read India?
    Sounds very unrealistic. There is no such a country or?

  4. #19
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    Excuse me, what is meant by the statement that deterrence as an operational objective existed since Sun Tzu's time? Are there any examples before the start of the modern era?

  5. #20
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    The Mongols attacking Xia to deter the Jinns.
    Chimo

  6. #21
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    I felt something is wrong, but I didn’t know where it is wrong. Now we can make some analysis to see where it might be right.

    The four wars in which China was involved after 1949 are , Korean War, Sino-Indian border war, Sino-Russia border clash, 1979 Sino-Vietnam border war.

    There is no such principle in Sun Tzu's works to take military action against a smaller enemy in order to deter a larger enemy.

    China entered Korean War for China felt threatened by the US advancing to the border and bombing of Chinese border cities. China fought the war to prevent future
    Possible war with the US, which is a power second to none, so there is no need to deter another larger enemy.

    The Sino-Indian border war, at first Chinese troops pulled back in front of the Indian army’s advance in order to maintain peace, but the Indians didn’t stop, at that time China realized that peace could only be won by a war.

    The Sino-Russo border clashes, when China had no chance to win a large scale war, China decide to show no weakness from the beginning to prevent escalation into a full scale war. No other larger enemy was in sight to deter, Russia was more than powerful.

    Of the four wars, only the Sino-Vietnam border war doesn’t fall in the category. Though Vietnam was really getting on China’s nerve, it posed no threat to China, but to get into war with Vietnam was like asking for a Russian attack on China. China was real nervous about a possible Russian interference at that time.

    The possible logic is though you can avoid a present war, in order to have lasting future peace, don’t be afraid to fight the present war to achieve that, and it is the desired outcome for China, we enjoyed 60 years of peace along the Sino-Korean border and 50 years along Sino-Indian border.

  7. #22
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    OOE’s point might be from the idiom, 杀鸡警猴, to kill a chicken to scare the monkey. It is not an easy job to train a monkey to perform, it’s naughty. But if you kill a chicken before its eyes, it will be afraid of you and follow your orders. The chicken is a dish on your table, the monkey a stage prop to bring you money. You kill 2 birds with one stone. Of course a monkey is bigger than a chicken, but they can be all in your control, so there’s no such idiom of killing a chicken to scare a tiger.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    The possible logic is though you can avoid a present war, in order to have lasting future peace, don’t be afraid to fight the present war to achieve that, and it is the desired outcome for China, we enjoyed 60 years of peace along the Sino-Korean border and 50 years along Sino-Indian border.
    You need some psychic treatment. Ask a Korean and an Idian about how they feel. Korea nowadays is still divided and India lost a vast area to China. This is the last time I talk to you.

  9. #24
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    Despite people have different opinions, we should talk on reasoning instead of rhetoric and emotions. I don’t remember I ever talked with you and I don’t believe someone has the monopoly on truth.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by VietPhuong View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth
    The possible logic is though you can avoid a present war, in order to have lasting future peace, don’t be afraid to fight the present war to achieve that, and it is the desired outcome for China, we enjoyed 60 years of peace along the Sino-Korean border and 50 years along Sino-Indian border.
    You need some psychic treatment. Ask a Korean and an Idian about how they feel. Korea nowadays is still divided and India lost a vast area to China. This is the last time I talk to you.
    You have to appreciate the fact that he is talking about it from a Chinese perspective. It is a matter of perception, and it is as interesting to know the Chinese perspective as it is to know the Indian and the Korean ones. Maybe the Chinese expected bigger wars on the same borders if the same wars had not been fought at that particular points of time? By the scale of their own civil wars and internal conflicts the Korean War, and certainly the Sino-Indian border clashes, were small affairs.

    Now whether those expectations were justified/unjustified, and the interpretations of the end-results correct/incorrect are always open to debate.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    The four wars in which China was involved after 1949 are , Korean War, Sino-Indian border war, Sino-Russia border clash, 1979 Sino-Vietnam border war.
    You left out the Taiwan Clashes and the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War.

    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    There is no such principle in Sun Tzu's works to take military action against a smaller enemy in order to deter a larger enemy.
    Chapter 3.

    Therefore, the best warfare strategy is to attack the enemy's plans, next is to attack alliances, next is to attack the army, and the worst is to attack a walled city.
    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    China entered Korean War for China felt threatened by the US advancing to the border and bombing of Chinese border cities. China fought the war to prevent future
    Possible war with the US, which is a power second to none, so there is no need to deter another larger enemy.

    The Sino-Indian border war, at first Chinese troops pulled back in front of the Indian army’s advance in order to maintain peace, but the Indians didn’t stop, at that time China realized that peace could only be won by a war.
    These are reactionary, not pro-active strategies.

    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    The Sino-Russo border clashes, when China had no chance to win a large scale war, China decide to show no weakness from the beginning to prevent escalation into a full scale war. No other larger enemy was in sight to deter, Russia was more than powerful.
    No one has a clue to what Mao was thinking when the clashes occured and there were more than a few Red Guards at the clashes.

    Quote Originally Posted by middle earth View Post
    Of the four wars, only the Sino-Vietnam border war doesn’t fall in the category. Though Vietnam was really getting on China’s nerve, it posed no threat to China, but to get into war with Vietnam was like asking for a Russian attack on China. China was real nervous about a possible Russian interference at that time.
    There's more than ample evidence that China was attacking Moscow's encirclement strategy, least of which the Chinese informed Moscow that they would not be renewing their Friendship Treaty right before they attacked.
    Chimo

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    You left out the Taiwan Clashes and the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War.

    There's more than ample evidence that China was attacking Moscow's encirclement strategy, least of which the Chinese informed Moscow that they would not be renewing their Friendship Treaty right before they attacked.
    Yes, I had the 1984 border war in mind, and the 1989 Spratly sea battle. Conflicts with Taiwan is considered the extension of the inner war. It is possible that China was attacking Moscow's encirclement strategy, the more obvious reasons were Vietnam denounced former agreements with China, confiscated Vietnamese Chinese properties and drove them to China and its expansion in the peninsular and undefined border and clashes over the border.

  13. #28
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    Andy has done an excellent paper on this

    The Political History of Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979, and the Chinese Concept of Active Defense

    Beijing's decision for war with Hanoi was a type of active defense against Moscow expansion into the SE Asia. In Beijing's view, the way to avert a major war was to challenge Soviet advances, disrupt its strategic preparations, and keep it from achieving an advantageous position that might tempt it to launch a major war. There was s strong emotional component to China's decision for war with Vietnam. China's leaders were very angry at what they perceived as Hanoi's ingratitude and duplicity. From Beijing's perspective, China had given North Vietnam consistent, substantial and critical support throughout its long struggle against the French, and then the Americans, but once the Americans were defeated, Hanoi began implementing one anti-China policy after another.
    Chimo

  14. #29
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    Thanx Sir for your enlightenment, the latter part is what I had in mind but inhibited to say. I guess it is also a part of a grand strategy coordinated with the Americans. It makes sense in this light but case for case, Deng said it is a spanking.

  15. #30
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    OoE:

    Sir I'm no expert, but in my view, the only thing that deterred the Soviet Union was the threat from the west.

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