Thread: Sino North Korea Relations.

NK Premier to Visit China in March

North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il will visit China in late March, Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported Saturday, quoting sources informed about China-North Korea relations.

China and North Korea mark the 60th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties this year, which they designated as a "year of friendship," and the visit is scheduled to reflect that spirit, Kyodo said, adding Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is also expected to travel to North Korea sometime after October.

It would be the first time, if materialized, for the premiers of the two countries to visit each other’s country.

The last time a North Korean premier visited China was in January 2006 when Pak Pong-ju accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on a trip to the country.

Beijing and Pyongyang are planning a series of exchanges to mark the anniversary this year. Among the events planned are an opening ceremony for "a year of friendship" in Beijing, and a closing ceremony in Pyongyang, the report said, adding that the premiers will make their visits to attend those ceremonies.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...113_40442.html

China, Japan play down islands row, warn NKorea

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...27PCKTWJgn-m0Q

BEIJING (AFP) — China and Japan Saturday played down a bitter territorial dispute and urged North Korea not to "threaten" regional peace in talks between their foreign ministers here, a Japanese official said.

Hirofumi Nakasone and Yang Jiechi, meeting as part of a drive to improve historically testy ties, agreed not to let the row over an energy-rich set of islands overshadow relations.

Both re-stated their positions over the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands, but "they agreed to make an effort so the differences in the two sides' positions do not cast a shadow on overall relations," the official said, according to Japan's Jiji Press.

The two sides also agreed to "continue monitoring the situation and maintain close contact" over nuclear-armed North Korea, which is feared to be planning a provocative missile test.

"North Korea should not carry out any acts that heighten tensions and threaten peace and safety of the region," the official said.

Japan and China are both part of a six-nation forum aimed at convincing North Korea to give up its nuclear programmes, but negotiations have repeatedly stalled.

Pyongyang has also stated its intention to launch a satellite soon, a move that Japan and the United States believe could actually be a long-range missile test for a weapon capable of hitting Alaska.

China, one of North Korea's closest allies and the host of the six-party talks, has made little comment on the subject, which has dominated regional security concerns in recent weeks.

Japanese media also reported that Nakasone expressed concern about China's military build-up, with Yang replying that Beijing was increasing its transparency.

The two also discussed the economic crisis and agreed on the need to fight trade protectionism, Jiji said.

The world's second and third biggest economies are grappling with the global slowdown, with Japan posting a record fall in industrial output in January and China recently announcing that 20 million rural migrants were out of work.

Saturday's meeting comes after tensions flared this week over the Diaoyu archipelago in the East China Sea, where lucrative undersea gas rights are claimed by both China and Japan.

Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso on Thursday fuelled the row when he said Tokyo would ask the United States to help it defend the disputed island chain.

China reacted angrily, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying Beijing had lodged "stern representations" with Japan over the comments.

Nakasone's visit comes as relations between the Asian giants have improved significantly after being overshadowed for a long time by Japan's invasion and occupation of parts of China before and during World War II.

China cut high-level contacts with Japan during the 2001-2006 premiership of Junichiro Koizumi due to his visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine, which venerates war criminals who invaded China, among 2.5 million Japanese war dead.

Japan's previous prime minister Yasuo Fukuda, who quit in September last year, worked hard to improve ties with China.

Seoul China to coordinate N.K. response

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSI...0902260048.asp

Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said yesterday China shared concerns with South Korea over North Korea's latest movements signaling a launch of a ballistic missile.

"China, in an indirect way, expressed that they also were concerned," Yu told Korean correspondents in Beijing while explaining the outcome of his one-on-one meeting with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi on Monday.

The minister reiterated earlier views that the North would be in violation of a United Nations resolution adopted following Pyongyang's 2006 nuclear test.

"Whether it is a satellite or an actual missile, both are against the U.N. resolution," Yu said. "Launching the long-range ballistic missile to raise further tension in the peninsula would not help anyone."

Yang's response was for the two Koreas to conduct themselves to "contribute to the stabilization" of the Northeast Asian region, according to Yu.

North Korea, in a latest brinkmanship attempt, appears to be just weeks away from test-launching its Taepodong-2 missile, which is believed to be capable of traveling up to 6,000 kilometers. The North, however, maintains that it is a satellite and not a missile.

Most of the partners of the six-party talks, including Japan and China, have now formulated a coordinated response toward Pyongyang's missile launch threats.

Yu said although he did not make a formal request for China's help in dissuading the North, he believes that Seoul's concerns would be conveyed through Beijing, as it maintains close contact with Pyongyang.

He hinted that there may be a possibility of China joining in another U.N. resolution should the North fire the Taepodong-2.

Touching on future six-party discussions, the two ministers agreed to spur the preparations for the next round of the stalled talks. The six parties have remained in deadlock since last year over disagreements on nuclear verifications.

"We agreed that the six-party talks must open as soon as possible to produce a breakthrough in the North Korean nuclear issue," Yu said. China is the chair of the talks.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have both stressed that the North's nuclear weapons programs must be dealt within the framework of the multi-party denuclearization talks.

Yu, who also held a breakfast meeting yesterday morning with Wang Jiarui, director of the international department in the Chinese Communist Party's central committee, said he heard "nothing new" from Wang's latest visit to Pyongyang.

North Korea appears to be aiming to rattle both Seoul and Washington with threats of the missile launch, according to experts here. The North has grown increasingly irritated over President Lee Myung-bak's more reciprocal policies, while towards Washington, it hopes to pressure the Barack Obama administration to normalize ties.

Internally, experts note, Kim Jong-il may be seeking to keep the people unified ahead of the possible appointment of his heir to the North Korean regime.

By Kim Ji-hyun

(jemmie@heraldm.com)



2009.02.26

A view (not the view) from a well respected place. However, in light of recent "planned" DPRK test and the action taken by both PRC and ROK, some of hte points raised by this article seems dated.

http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.ph...id=57&Itemid=8

2008 / Issue 12 - Autumn / Big Brother is Watching: China's Intentions in the DPRK
2008 2007 2006
Big Brother is Watching: China's Intentions in the DPRK

Big Brother is Watching: China's Intentions in the DPRK
alt
by Timothy Savage

Recent reports of Kim Jong-il’s death may have been, to quote Mark Twain, “greatly exaggerated,” but they did reveal a great deal about South Korean thinking regarding the future of North Korea. Anonymous officials leaked information that the government was looking at operationalizing ConPlan 5029, the contingency plan for joint US-South Korean intervention in the North that had been suspended under the previous administration. Given the lack of any signs of unrest in Pyongyang, the urgency of such planning was questioned by critics.1 But it reflects an ongoing concern that has been building in South Korea over the years: that if North Korea ever does collapse, the opportunity to determine the future of the peninsula may not fall to South Korea, but rather to China.

When South Korea and China first normalized relations in 1992, it was widely seen as a diplomatic coup for Seoul. Gaining official recognition from North Korea’s most staunch supporter and Korean War ally signaled that, for all intents and purposes, Seoul had won the ongoing battle for legitimacy on the Korean Peninsula. Coming so soon after the fall of the Berlin Wall, few doubted that a reunified Korea under the Southern system was on the horizon, with at least tacit acceptance from Beijing.

Despite North Korea’s stubborn refusal to prove the prognosticators right by collapsing, economic relations between South Korea and China have grown at a rapid pace. In the last decade, the PRC has emerged as the number one destination for South Korean investment, while also surpassing the United States as Seoul’s leading trading partner. An increasing number of South Korean students are favoring the study of Chinese over English and staffing the language programs at top Chinese universities. South Korean pop stars and soap operas have gained wide popularity in China. President Kim Dae-jung spoke of reorienting South Korea away from the Pacific Ocean and toward mainland Asia, while his successor, Roh Tae-Woo, advocated moving the country away from its reliance on the US alliance and toward the role of a regional “balancer.” So close have the two countries become that, until the election of the unabashedly pro-American Lee Myung-bak, many Washington observers were expressing fear of Seoul falling under the Chinese “orbit.”

Recent events have shown South Koreans a less benign side of China’s rise, however. Like the citizens of other countries, South Koreans have been disturbed by revelations of the safety problems with Chinese-made products. Disputes over fishing rights in the Yellow Sea (known as the West Sea in Korea) have been on the rise, with over 2,000 Chinese fishing boats detained over the last four years.2 The situation turned violent in early October when a South Korean coast guard officer was killed trying to board a Chinese boat that had allegedly strayed into South Korean territorial waters. South Korean missionaries working with North Korean refugees in the Chinese border regions have been harassed, arrested, and sometimes deported by Chinese authorities, while the refugees themselves have been sent back to North Korea to face imprisonment, torture, and sometimes execution. Protestors demonstrating against such actions during the Olympic torch relay in Seoul were set upon by flag-waving Chinese students whom unconfirmed reports suggested may have been bussed into the city by the PRC embassy.

These demonstrations of the darker side of Chinese nationalism have reinforced concerns over Chinese territorial ambitions that were stoked by competing historical interpretations between the two countries. At the heart of the disagreement is a dispute over the “ownership” of the history of Goguryeo, an ancient kingdom whose territory covered large parts of both Manchuria and northern Korea. While the arguments on both sides are anachronistic, since Goguryeo predated the emergence of either China or Korea in their modern incarnations, it speaks to the competing visions of nationalism. China, concerned about ethnic separatism in its hinterland, points to Goguryeo as evidence of the existence of “minority” kingdoms within ancient China. South Korea, which clings to a myth of 5,000 years of ethnic homogeneity, sees Goguryeo as an integral part of the “Three Kingdoms,” along with Silla and Paekche, that came together to form the Korean nation.

Many South Koreans were alarmed when China in 2002 launched its “Northeast Project” to promote research aimed at supporting its version of history. Both the government and private groups have responded by establishing their own centers for studying the history of Goguryeo. For its part, China sees its actions as defensive moves against claims by South Korean nationalists (not supported by the government) that the “Gando” region north of the Tumen River, which is heavily populated by ethnic Koreans, rightfully belongs to Korea. According to this interpretation, the Sino-Japanese border agreement of 1905 illegitimately “gave away” Korean territory to China, whereas Chinese maintain that the border was already well established by earlier Sino-Korean treaties. 3

In the two decades since it decided to ignore Pyongyang’s call for a boycott of the Seoul Olympics, China has singlehandedly disproven the previously widely held notion that relations with the two Koreas are a zero-sum game. In a way that no other country has managed, it has skillfully maneuvered between Seoul and Pyongyang, building strong economic ties with the former while retaining the latter as a buffer zone against the US alliance system in the region. This has led many in Seoul to begin questioning whether Beijing would ultimately be supportive of unification. If the current situation gives it the best of both worlds, why would China want to see a change?

In many respects, China has played a positive role in the attempts to promote dialogue and reconciliation between the two Koreas. China has willingly served as the host of the six-party talks on reversing North Korea’s nuclear development, as they did with the earlier four-party talks on replacing the Korean War Armistice with a peace agreement. It has even been willing to twist the screws a bit, as it did by briefly shutting off oil shipments to signal its displeasure with Pyongyang’s nuclear test. China has also sought to gently nudge its ally down the road of economic opening and reform, but with little success to show for its efforts. Both China and South Korea would prefer to see gradual change and development in North Korea over a sudden, East German-style collapse, which would put a major strain on both countries’ economies.
But when it comes to the question of unification, their interests begin to diverge. While support for unification, and particularly rapid unification, has waned somewhat in recent years, most South Koreans still see it as the logical and inevitable endgame on the Peninsula. In China, however, reunification poses a potential challenge. Will a reunified Korea be pro-Chinese, or at least neutral in its outlook? Or will it join with the United States and Japan in forming the northeastern curve of a strategic encirclement of China?

Both South Korean and American scholars who have studied Chinese strategic thinking on the Korean Peninsula have found that in fact China is not opposed to Korean reunification, but are rather worried about the possibility of joint US-South Korean intervention in North Korea. For this and other reasons, China would be willing to intervene in North Korea to protect its own vital interests, including preventing a refugee crisis, securing loose nuclear weapons, or restoring order out of chaos.4

While the Chinese may view such actions as benign, many South Koreans see them as a threat to Seoul’s vital interests. In an interview I conducted for an International Crisis Group report, Yun Hwy-tack, a researcher at Seoul’s Goguryeo Research Institute, warned that if the United States and South Korea were to intervene in case of a North Korean collapse, China might use a historical claim to the northern part of the Korean Peninsula to justify an intervention of its own.5 With the continued uncertainty over who will succeed the aging and apparently ailing Kim Jong-il, the possibility of a Chinese-supported coup looms large in the South Korean imagination. Speculation has focused on Kim’s eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, who has been living in virtual exile in China since being arrested by Japanese immigration authorities trying to sneak into the country on a fake passport to visit Tokyo Disneyland. Many observers fear that China would react to Kim Jong-il’s death to prop up either Jong-nam or a China-friendly military junta to serve as a virtual puppet ruler in support of Chinese regional interests.6 Chinese experts deny that China would have any intention of helping to install a pro-Chinese leader in Pyongyang, which would go against China’s longstanding opposition to one country intervening in another’s national sovereignty.

Regardless of the likelihood of such a scenario, however, it weighs heavily on the minds of South Korean policymakers. In Seoul, scholars and government officials have begun to more openly admit that fear of Chinese intentions is a major motivating factor for South Korea’s continued engagement efforts. China’s response to North Korea’s nuclear weapons development has lent credence to this view, as it has become clear that, regardless of North Korea’s bad behavior, China will never entirely cut off its supply of vital food and energy. Recognizing that, Seoul feels compelled to push its own economic cooperation with the North to maintain some degree of leverage and avoid letting its estranged brother become entirely dependent on Chinese support. As one researcher at a government-funded think tank put it, “If we isolate North Korea, they’ll have to rely more heavily on China, which increases the possibility that North Korea will become a pawn in a regional game.”7 This explains why the current South Korean administration of Lee Myung-bak, despite its oft-repeated skepticism of its predecessors “sunshine policy”, remains reluctant to allow a full break in inter-Korean relations.

It is quite likely that South Korean concerns in this regard are largely overblown, the result of a historical perception of victimhood, of being a “shrimp among whales.” In actuality, aside from the sticky question of Seoul’s alliance with the United States, its interests and that of Beijing’s are closely aligned when it comes to North Korea. The Lee administration’s stated policy of promoting the DPRK’s denuclearization and opening in exchange for large-scale development aid fits in neatly with China’s own interest in a nuclear-free North Korea pursuing economic reform. Both sides would prefer to see gradual change and avoid chaos in the North. Opening up a trade route through North Korea by rebuilding the rail link with the South would also help increase Sino-South Korean trade.

All this strongly suggests the need for better communication between the two countries on North Korea’s future. Chinese analysts have already indicated a desire to open such discussions with the United States.8 But any Beijing-Washington dialogue that excludes Seoul would only further exacerbate South Korean concerns of strategic isolation, which are growing, as inter-Korean relations remain stalemated while US-North Korean dialogue moves forward. Furthermore, it is not feasible to carry on an open dialogue on the possibility of regime collapse in North Korea while retaining Pyongyang as a dialogue partner, so that any discussions would have to be sub rosa.

But if the question of North Korea’s future is too delicate to breach, it may still be possible to address some of the sources of mutual distrust. In particular, a new peace regime to replace the 1953 Armistice Agreement is on the agenda for a future stage of the six-party talks process. When negotiations reach that stage, China and South Korea can directly address the question of restructuring the US-South Korean alliance in a way that will address South Korean security concerns while at the same time alleviating Chinese fears of encirclement. North Korea in the past has hinted at a willingness to accept a continued US troop presence if doing so would help constrain South Korea or Japan from moving in a more aggressive direction, suggesting that they too may be amenable to a new arrangement.

In the meantime, the two sides need to constantly work to reduce bilateral tensions. China needs to realize that economic relations are not a substitute for diplomacy; it must directly address the historical and territorial disputes that divide the countries. For its part, South Korea should attempt to restrain the more virulent nationalistic sentiments of its citizens and constantly reassure China that it has no designs on any parts of current Chinese territory.

None of this will solve the vexing questions of North Korea’s future direction, which in any case will be ultimately determined not in Beijing or in Seoul but in Pyongyang. China and South Korea cannot meet in a smoke-filled room and decide the fate of North Korea. But the more they can overcome their own mutual distrust, the less likely it becomes that whatever does happen in North Korea will lead to a broader regional crisis.

Timothy Savage is Deputy Director of the Seoul branch of the Nautilus Institute for Security & Sustainable Development.

Notes

1 “Chung Se-hyun: Stop Mentioning Contingency and Gain DPRK People’s Support!” Pressian, Sept. 16, 2008 (in Korean).
2 Shirong Chen, “China Acts in Water Dispute Row,” BBC News, Oct. 17, 2008.
3 “Northeast Asia’s Undercurrents of Conflict,” International Crisis Group, Dec. 15, 2005, pp. 6-7.
4 Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder, and John S. Park, “Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea,” United States Institute of Peace Working Paper, Jan. 3, 2008.
5 “North East Asia’s Undercurrents of Conflict,” op. cit., p. 7.
6 Yoon Won-sup, “Lee Fears Pro-China Regime in NK,” Korea Times, Nov. 12, 2004.
7 “Korea Backgrounder: How the South Views Its Brother from Another Planet,” International Crisis Group Asia Report #89, Dec. 14, 2004.
8 Glaser et al., op. cit., p. 20.

China, US opposed to NKorean missile launch: envoy

1 hour ago

BEIJING (AFP) — China and the United States agree that North Korea should not go ahead with a missile launch, a US envoy said here on Wednesday after talks with Chinese officials.

"We both believe it would not be a good idea to have a missile launch," the new US envoy on North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, told reporters.

North Korea has said it will fire a rocket to put a satellite into orbit, but the United States and South Korea believe it is a pretext to test a missile that could theoretically reach Alaska.

They say any launch would breach a UN resolution adopted after Pyongyang's last missile test in 2006.

China, one of North Korea's closest allies, has been more circumspect about its position in public, but has also in recent days called for Pyongyang not to do anything that would jeopardise regional stability.

Bosworth briefed the media immediately after what he described as very good talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

He said China and the United States were also in agreement that stalled six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear programme should restart soon.

"I think there is a great convergence of views that we are very much committed to the notion that it is important to resume six-party talks as soon as possible," Bosworth said.

Under a landmark six-nation deal in 2007, North Korea agreed to scrap its atomic weapons programmes in exchange for badly needed energy aid.

But the talks, also involving the United States, Russia, South Korea, China, and Japan, became deadlocked late last year when North Korea balked at demands to allow verification of disarmament moves.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, who also met Bosworth in Beijing, said verification remained the key hurdle, Xinhua news agency reported.

"Parties involved have not reached an agreement on the issue and efforts are being made to find a solution acceptable to all," said Wu, Beijing's envoy to the six-party talks, which are hosted by China.

Bosworth is scheduled to travel Thursday to Tokyo for talks with top Japanese officials.

He is then due to fly on Saturday to Seoul, where he will meet Russian and South Korean officials.

Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved. More »

China, Japan, South Korean Envoys to Discuss North Korea Launch
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By Heejin Koo

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Top negotiators from Japan and South Korea will meet their Chinese counterparts in Beijing today and tomorrow to discuss North Korea’s plans to launch a rocket next month, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said.

Wi Sung Lac, South Korea’s chief negotiator to six-nation talks aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, will travel to Beijing tomorrow to meet with Wu Dawei, South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae Young told reporters in Seoul today. Akitaka Saiki, Japan’s chief envoy, is in Beijing today for a similar meeting, he said.

“The chief negotiators are expected to discuss North Korea’s rocket-launch plans and how to make concerted efforts following the move,” Moon said. “They will also discuss prospects for the next round of six-nation talks, although it is too early to say when it will likely be held.”

Kim Jong Il’s regime has said it intends to launch a communications satellite into orbit the week of April 4-8 as part of a peaceful space project. The U.S., Japan and South Korea oppose the move, saying it would violate a United Nations resolution. South Korea suspects North Korea is instead planning to test a ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska.

South Korea’s Wi also plans to travel to the U.S. to meet Obama administration envoys Stephen Bosworth and Sung Kim and discuss the stalled talks, Moon said. The negotiations, which also involve Russia, came to a halt in December after North Korea refused to let inspectors remove samples from its main Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

The country agreed in February 2007 to scrap its nuclear weapons development program in return for energy aid and normalized diplomatic ties with the U.S. and Japan.

North Korea notified international agencies that it will close air routes off its east coast between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. between April 4 and 8, South Korea’s Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs said on March 21.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heejin Koo in Seoul at hjkoo@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 23, 2009 03:52 EDT

Col,

To follow up with your post on the PLAN carrier thread:

How about this little song-and-dance by the PLA Marine during DPRK's PM visit in China.

中国海军陆战队赴东北进行寒区演练

Chinese marine moved to NorthEast to conduct a cold region ex. (they really, really need some good winter gear)

The dude is the COS of 2nd PLAM Brigade.

China, ROK vow to further strengthen military ties
English_Xinhua 2009-04-29 13:37:58 Print

BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) agreed here Wednesday to further strengthen military ties.

Since China and the ROK forged diplomatic ties, their relations have experienced rapid development, and friendly bilateral military ties have expanded in a stable fashion, said Chen Bingde, Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army.

Chen made his comments in a meeting here with Lee Jong-koo, former Defense Minister and President of the Retired Generals and Admirals Association of the ROK.

Chen said more bilateral military exchanges would be conducive to the healthy development of China-ROK friendly relations and to regional peace, stability and prosperity.

China hoped both countries could further deepen cooperation, strengthen understanding and promote military exchanges and personnel training, so as to advance their strategic and cooperative partnership, he said.

Lee said that recent years had witnessed the sound development of ROK-China relations and frequent military exchanges.

He added that the ROK adhered to the one-China policy and would work with China to develop bilateral relations.
Editor: Sun

From '悍然' to '再次', the tone seems to be softened. Yet they repeated 'to maintain peace and stability in northeast Asia' once, as compared to the last one in 2006. Other sentences have not altered.

Chinese gov't "resolutely opposes" DPRK's nuclear test_English_Xinhua

China debates its bond with North Korea - Los Angeles Times

The longtime ties between the communist regimes are enduring some questioning among Chinese, who were rattled by the nuclear test near their border.

By Barbara Demick
May 27, 2009

Reporting from Beijing -- When is it time to dump an old friend who insists on behaving badly? The debate is raging in China.

North Korea's latest nuclear test raises the question of just how long the bonds forged between old communist allies will endure.

The test was conducted barely 50 miles from the Chinese border. The ground rumbled in northeast China, and some schools were evacuated because of fears of an earthquake.

"It was quite shocking. The location where they did this test was a lot closer to China than to where [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Il is living in Pyongyang," said Zhang Liangui, a Korea expert with Beijing's Central Party School, where Communist Party officials are trained.

Mao Tse-tung once famously said that the relationship between China and North Korea was as close as "lips and teeth." Throughout the decades, China has remained the truest friend of its isolated neighbor -- at times the only friend.

Successive U.S. presidents have tried to take advantage of that relationship, turning to Beijing in the hope that it can pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Increasingly, China itself is questioning whether the relationship is worth the effort.

Within the Chinese intelligentsia there is a deep divide over how to handle North Korea. The Global Times, a newspaper with close party ties, Tuesday published a survey of 20 of the country's top foreign policy experts. It found them split down the middle -- 10 arguing for tough sanctions against North Korea, 10 opposed.

"Traditionally, China has been very friendly to North Korea, but now there is a feeling that the North Koreans are causing us too much trouble," Zhang said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), who is leading a U.S. congressional delegation in China this week, is expected to press President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao at a meeting today to bring North Korea back into six-party talks about nuclear dismantlement.

The relationship between North Korea and China is a product of history and geography. The 850-mile border with China is North Korea's main connection to the outside world -- given that the DMZ bordering South Korea is as fortified as ever. Virtually all flights in and out of North Korea pass through China.

Even as North Korea has tested nuclear weapons, test-fired missiles and generally made a nuisance of itself in the neighborhood, Beijing has supplied its old ally with goods varying from fuel to fertilizer, corn to cosmetics, shoes, clothing and electronics. Chinese exports to North Korea last year amounted to $2 billion.

North Korea isn't the only country where everything has "Made in China" stamped on it. But North Korea isn't able to pay the bill, so much of the trade is tantamount to aid.

Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist with the American Enterprise Institute, recently analyzed North Korea's trade imbalance with China and concluded that Beijing's support to Pyongyang has in effect quadrupled since 2004.

He contends that China is playing a two-faced game -- supporting the U.S.-led effort to stop weapons proliferation while propping up Kim's regime.

"When has China ever had a better situation on the Korean peninsula? They have the southern side with their investment and technical know-how building a more prosperous China, and a socialist buffer zone in the north. It's perfect," Eberstadt said.

He says he doesn't expect China to take any significant action unless it determines that North Korea is a drag on the economy.

"Clearly, North Korea has not become a question for the economic technocrats. There is no indication that anybody in China is saying, "How can we make this problem go away?' "

Neoconservative analysts say the Obama administration, and the Bush White House before it, has been misguided in depending on China. However, U.S. officials said Tuesday that even though North Korea's nuclear program hasn't been halted, China has proved useful.

"We're not reconsidering China's role in this," said a senior administration official who spoke about the diplomacy on condition of anonymity.

U.S. officials say China twice cut off oil supplies to North Korea, in 2003 and 2006-'07, to ratchet up pressure. It also cooperated by scrutinizing bank accounts when the U.S. Treasury went after Macao-based Banco Delta Asia in 2007 in reaction to North Korea's improper use of the international banking system.

Some former U.S. officials say the administration may have to be willing to risk strains in its relations with China in order to get Beijing to push its ally harder.

Michael Green, a senior National Security Council official for five years under President Bush, said the U.S. could signal that it will expand its defense ties with South Korea and Japan, and step up its missile defense activities in the region, unless China takes stronger action.

"They wouldn't be comfortable with that," said Green, who is now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

At a news briefing Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu reiterated that his government was "resolutely opposed" to North Korea's nuclear test, but declined to answer specific questions about what might happen next.

The regime founded by Kim Il Sung after World War II was largely a creation of Moscow, but it was China that entered the Korean War in support of North Korea. It has become North Korea's leading patron since the Soviet Union's collapse. Its influence has increased over the last year as North Korea's relations have unraveled with a new conservative government in South Korea.

China has at times permitted North Korean agents to hunt down defectors on its territory. And when a North Korean patrol in March seized two American journalists who had wandered too close to the border from Chinese soil, Beijing didn't protest. The two are still being held.

The problem for Beijing, should it choose to try to exert its considerable influence on Pyongyang, is that North Korea is so poor and unpredictable that a sudden withdrawal of aid could cause it to collapse, sending refugees spilling across the border and leaving its weapons up for grabs. And as China is well aware, any interruption of food or fuel will hurt North Korea's people without crimping Kim's imperial lifestyle.

Few Chinese worry that they would be a target of North Korea's weapons. The more realistic concern is that the North Korean threat will set off a military buildup in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, endangering what China most values -- stability.

Some policymakers here believe that China is better off applying pressure in its own style -- discreetly, unilaterally.

"I don't think China should be involved in U.S. sanctions," said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at People's University of China who has been an influential voice against sanctions.

"We are a great power. China is not afraid of North Korea . . . but we have to be patient."

barbara.demick@latimes.com

Times staff writer Paul Richter in Washington and Nicole Liu of The Times' Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.

KJ-2000 has been spotted at Jinzhou recently.

NK to China is more than a friend. In the middle of an unclear game, nobody wants to throw away an important card, even if it is risky and a little bit dirty.

Originally Posted by VietPhuong

NK to China is more than a friend. In the middle of an unclear game, nobody wants to throw away an important card, even if it is risky and a little bit dirty.

Quite. And Japan and SK have withdrawn giving substantial aid to the NorK's, the PRC is left holding the can.

How do you think the NorK's got the capability?

Originally Posted by WarisHell

Quite. And Japan and SK have withdrawn giving substantial aid to the NorK's, the PRC is left holding the can.

How do you think the NorK's got the capability?

Umm, they built it themselves. The low yields of the Nork nukes could only be achieved by the brilliance of juche inspired scientific endeavors.