Thread: Megaterrorism in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics?

Originally Posted by Inst

Sirs, what do you think the chances of that are?

I could see a motive. If the goal of Islamic Terrorists is to destabilize the world economy, and thus create chaotic conditions amenable to recruitment, why not blow Beijing? Depending on the scale of the attack, investors would become wary of investing in China, and considering the existing instability in China, might weaken the CCP sufficiently to allow Taiwan to declare independence. If the CCP missteps, the PLA will blow themselves up in attacking Taiwan, and China would throw itself into turmoil. In either case, as the world is supposed to be running on two growth engines, America and China, it would be a major blow to the world economy. As the United States is already recessionary, it would send the world into a new recession.

The United States might not want to cooperate with China on this matter, since if China collapses, it would remove a major policy problem for the United States. A democratic India could instead become the dominant power in Asia. Further, the FBI is probably antagonistic towards China, as it is responsible for dealing with Chinese commercial and technological espionage. If the bomb goes that way, it would save the FBI and CIA a lot of work.

Whatever the case is, of the major components in the world economy, China is the most fragile, and the most unprotected. Europe and America have already been innoculated by previous terrorist attacks, while security procedures in China seem, well, Chinese. Further, if the attack is nuclear, then Zhongnanhai goes poof. If China is a weak but strengthening empire held in place by the PLA and the CCP, then without the strong or at least existing leadership of the Politburo, the authoritarian and centralized government could not hold. And considering China's limited nuclear arsenal, it's unlikely that there would be a threat of retaliation against Islamic holy cities. If they take New York, there's a 50/50 chance Mecca goes poof. If they take Beijing, it'll take quite a while for the Chinese to figure out where Mecca is, and by the time they figure it out, they might no longer want to nuke Mecca. Lastly, if China mistakes the attack for an American or Russian attack, a retaliation could start a nuclear war. More anarchy for less work.

Is there something wrong with my reasoning? If there is, please explain. :(

China's arsenal may not be as good as the US's, but they still do posses ICBMs. They've got the range to take out Mecca, but what makes you so sure that the terrorists will operate out of a city? And are you assuming Al-Queda attacks?