Global Warming...Fact or Fiction? - Page 6

ba1025 · 05-01-2008, 13:44 PM

Well models don't account for weather, el nina is weather

gunnut · 05-01-2008, 13:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ba1025

Well models don't account for weather, el nina is weather

Um...el nino or la nina? There's a huge difference between them.

ba1025 · 05-01-2008, 13:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunnut

Um...el nino or la nina? There's a huge difference between them.

la nina my bad

7thsfsniper · 05-01-2008, 14:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ba1025

la nina my bad

Actually It's "El Nino"

**Shek** · 05-01-2008, 15:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ba1025

Well models don't account for weather, el nina is weather

We've had three el nino's in the past five years, and yet, the average temperature hasn't risen over that time. What did the models predict? Were they correct, or did they overstate, i.e., say that temperatures would rise?

dalem · 05-01-2008, 20:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ba1025

Can someone post some support for their view from something that isn't a conservative rag site or some dummy science study group sponsored by big oil or some lone scientist whose sucking on the tit of big oil? I gave hundreds. Can you give me one report by a western nations study group that agrees with your pov? Bush's study group didnt. I am supposed to believe the one or two dissenters over every other climate scientist???

Believe whatever you want. I don't care if you believe purple lizards eat your socks every night and then poop them out unchanged the next morning.

But don't try and peddle your belief as fact.

And why not continue this argument in any of the 7 or 8 threads that have already covered this ground in the last 3 years instead of here?

-dale

dalem · 05-01-2008, 20:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parihaka

No no. It COOLED, during the until that time most intensely industrial period of history. So there wasn't simply a lag or delay, it cooled.
It's also possibly cooling now although it's only been ten years, despite every model the IPCC cites stating we should be fast approaching a tipping point with likely positive feed back. Did you learn about positive feedback at school?

Remember those inconvenient probes I posted about a couple of weeks ago that showed the oceans weren't warming at all either.

Darned inconvenient truths, these facts.

-dale

dalem · 05-01-2008, 20:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ba1025

Like i said i wouldn't be upset with a Christian who insisted the world was 5000 years old at some point i would realize the belief was based on faith so beyond the need of proof and their was no point in continuing to press a point he was incapable of acknowledging

You don't even realize that you are doing the exact same thing as your hypothetical Xn and that you are using the exact same form of reasoning, do you?

To quote Babylon 5's G'Kar: "If the symmetry were any more perfect, I should think one of us would break into tears."

-dale

**Parihaka** · 05-01-2008, 22:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalem

Remember those inconvenient probes I posted about a couple of weeks ago that showed the oceans weren't warming at all either.

Darned inconvenient truths, these facts.

-dale

Funny you should mention that

Quote:

Natural changes may offset global warming briefly
Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:40pm EDT

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By Michael Kahn

LONDON (Reuters) - Natural climate changes may offset human-caused global warming over the next decade, keeping ocean temperatures the same or even temporarily cooling them slightly, German researchers said on Wednesday.

However, this short-term situation might create a problem if policymakers regarded it as a sign they could ease efforts to limit greenhouse gases or play down global warming.

"The natural variations change climate on this timescale and policymakers may either think mitigation is working or that there is no global warming at all," said Noel Keenlyside, a climate researcher at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany who led the study.

Climate researchers have long predicted more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would spur a general warming trend over the next 100 years. The study in the journal Nature is one of the first to take a shorter-term view.

This is useful because natural changes as opposed to human causes may play a bigger role in the short term, Keenlyside said.

His team made a computer model that takes into account natural phenomena such as sea surface temperatures and ocean circulation patterns.

They checked their work by producing a set of forecasts using data recorded over the past 50 years and found the retrospective forecasts were accurate, Keenlyside said.

"This is important because policies are made in the short term," Keenlyside said. "Our results show we might not have as much change in climate over the next 10 years."

A United Nations climate panel report this year predicted temperatures would rise between 1.8 and 4 degrees Celsius this century, in part because of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.

Scientists say rising temperatures could cause seas to rise sharply, glaciers to melt and storms and droughts to become more intense. These in turn may force mass migrations of climate refugees.

One possible reason for the relative cooling effect in the next decade is the predicted weakening of a system that brings warm water northward into the North Atlantic and offsets an expected rise in greenhouse gases, Keenlyside said.

"The first attempts at decadal prediction suggest that reasonably accurate forecasts of the combined effects of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and natural climate variations can be made," Richard Wood of Britain's Met Office, who was not involved in the study, wrote in a Nature commentary.

(Reporting by Michael Kahn, Editing by Maggie Fox and Robert Woodward)

7thsfsniper · 05-02-2008, 00:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalem

\
And why not continue this argument in any of the 7 or 8 threads that have already covered this ground in the last 3 years instead of here?

-dale

Sorry Dale. My fault. I didn't research prior threads enough. But what fun this one has been!

Helium · 05-02-2008, 01:55 AM

Man o Man

I always laugh when I hear people say "its the middle of summer and its 20 degrees and pouring down" followed by "so much for global warming" or "this last summer wasn't half as hot as last year".

I'm sorry to say but comparing annual temperatures from the past to present is not a measure of global warming.

The ONLY measure and I say ONLY measure is Amounts of Carbon released into the atmosphere. Because we all know carbon heats, making the air hotter and so on.

Now, why is annual temps not a measure of global warming, if the air is getting hotter than the planet must be getting hotter, right? Well, the heating up is occuring but the major effect is on the melting ice caps.....like i said more water in those reserves are being released and cooling already cool oceans and cooling warm tropical oceans.

This causes changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Because temperature is a key factor in extreme weather.

"A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming"

The key part from above is that changes in precipitation patterns will occur....this is how it affects us. From then on with the irregular weather affects agriculture, ecosystems, villages and developments and so on.

"The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100,[79] repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain."

The ice caps are a very fragile ecosystem and thus are the first to be affected by global warming. We are not going to boil to death but we are going to die of thirst, drown in freak weather or starve.

By the time the regular less fragile ecosystems are affected by the one degree to 6 degree increase in temps we will be long gone and the grave stone will be under water.

**Officer of Engineers** · 05-02-2008, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Helium

The ONLY measure and I say ONLY measure is Amounts of Carbon released into the atmosphere. Because we all know carbon heats, making the air hotter and so on.

Explain why the periods of the two WWs were actually cooler?

troung · 05-02-2008, 03:35 AM

Quote:

Explain why the periods of the two WWs were actually cooler?

Because people were at war, maybe nature doesn't like people fighting have you ever thought of that? Worst sand storms, worst storms, worst snow, worst heat so I'm just saying

.

**Officer of Engineers** · 05-02-2008, 03:48 AM

Troung,

You need to lay off the chocolate milk.

**Parihaka** · 05-02-2008, 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Helium

Because we all know carbon heats, making the air hotter and so on.

I don't. Could you give me an in-depth explanation please. Not a link to a paper which I'm sure not to understand, but in your own words?

05-02-2008, 01:55 AM	#86 (permalink)
Helium Regular Join Date: 04-02-08 Posts: 69	Man o Man I always laugh when I hear people say "its the middle of summer and its 20 degrees and pouring down" followed by "so much for global warming" or "this last summer wasn't half as hot as last year". I'm sorry to say but comparing annual temperatures from the past to present is not a measure of global warming. The ONLY measure and I say ONLY measure is Amounts of Carbon released into the atmosphere. Because we all know carbon heats, making the air hotter and so on. Now, why is annual temps not a measure of global warming, if the air is getting hotter than the planet must be getting hotter, right? Well, the heating up is occuring but the major effect is on the melting ice caps.....like i said more water in those reserves are being released and cooling already cool oceans and cooling warm tropical oceans. This causes changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Because temperature is a key factor in extreme weather. "A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming" The key part from above is that changes in precipitation patterns will occur....this is how it affects us. From then on with the irregular weather affects agriculture, ecosystems, villages and developments and so on. "The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones. Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100,[79] repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain." The ice caps are a very fragile ecosystem and thus are the first to be affected by global warming. We are not going to boil to death but we are going to die of thirst, drown in freak weather or starve. By the time the regular less fragile ecosystems are affected by the one degree to 6 degree increase in temps we will be long gone and the grave stone will be under water. Last edited by Helium : 05-02-2008 at 02:02 AM. Reason: adding more info

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05-01-2008, 13:44 PM	#76 (permalink)
ba1025 Banished Join Date: 04-04-08 Posts: 287 Country:	Well models don't account for weather, el nina is weather

05-02-2008, 03:48 AM	#89 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,915 Country:	Troung, You need to lay off the chocolate milk.

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