dark-alias

208 years, the sun is getting hotter, bigger, and brighter all of the time. It is a red giant, and is also middle age. It is going to keep expanding and getting hotter until if burns out. This has a minor impact, but impact just the same on global temp. Mind you over a spand of 1 billion years the sun gets hotter by 10% every billion. Also we have a very dynamic climate which has been stated numerous times. I agree with the fact the humanity has an impact of earth, but in regards to its atmosphere i disagree with the severity of hypothesis.

Alternative energy? or Alternative Opportunity? which one is it or do they go hand in hand with one another. In the broad scope of things alternative energy brings the balance of power into our favor (which is not a bad idea) but the reasons for it being pushed so hard are questionable (IMO.) Look at the employment outlook if green is the true main wave of the future! Its the answer to our outsourcing equation. It would create thousands (possibly millions) of high paying skilled jobs. again IMO.

dark-alias

apologies if i just rambled on there, i think i am being deprived of sleep!

Shek

What's wrong with outsourcing? You and I do it everyday. We outsource someone else to grow our food, prepare our meals, etc. Besides, I'm not sure how switching from oil to some other energy source will decrease IT outsourcing, but it may help Springfield . . . Simpsons Fan blog » The Simpsons- India outsourcing

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LetsTalk

Below are some quotes about the Prius batteries.

"For additional peace of mind, these models came with an eight year or 100,000 mile warranty for the battery pack."

Toyota Prius Overview - Edmunds.com

"the battery pack of the 2004 Prius is warranted for 160,000 km (100,000 miles) or 8 years, although Toyota has stated that they expect it to last 15 years. The warranty is extended to 240,000 km (150,000 miles) or 10 years[35] for Prius in California, and in the seven Northeastern states that have adopted the stricter California emission control standards"

Toyota Prius - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"An average North American mid-size car travels 27 mpg (US) (9 L/100 km) highway, 21 mpg (US)"

Fuel efficiency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My Prius is averaging 45+ miles per Gallon, with a usual load of 1-2 adults, 2 kids and tons of stuff. Driving my Prius 100,000 miles will consume 2,222 gallons of gasoline. An average sedan averaging 24MPG will consume 4,166 gallons of gasoline. A difference of 1,944 gallons. At $4 dollars a gallon which is low balling knowing that gas prices will most likely go up, that will be a gas savings of $7,777 minus a 5,000-6,000 premium for the technology. I drive my cars to the ground, so I expect and hope for more savings than that. Will see.

Shek

Two points:

1. Don't forget to discount the future dollars that you save to determine if you end up ahead or not. A dollar saved a few years down the road is not the same as the dollar spent today since that future dollar will be worth less. In other words, you have to save more dollars on gas not spent than what you spent on the hybrid "premium" just to break even.

2. An electric car will use the batteries more intensely than a hybrid will, and so the same battery will last a shorter time in an electric car. Of course, for an electric car to be cost effective, the batteries will have to have a long life, so looking at today's battery life probably isn't the best measuring stick, although it is a start point.

7thsfsniper

Thats nice. Sounds like a good a good warranty. But whether you pay for it or not is not my point. Point is that the batteries still have(and many of them) to be replaced. And unless your electricity comes from solar or wind or hydro. Then it is still making pollution. (in the case of an all electric car of course)

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LetsTalk

Yes there are many factors, other factors are possible tax rebates, maintenance costs, with the additional technology I am expecting some more possible repairs, however, I do not need oil changes as often, the brakes should last me significantly longer, muffler get less usage....

LetsTalk

Correct, the electric cars will have to get their energy from some were. However I have read that the carbon footprint of those cars should still be less than gasoline cars. And you and Shek are correct, the more you use the battery the less is its life expectancy.

By the way the batteries for the PRIUS weight about 115 pounds. So yes that would be 115 pounds of waste when replaced, which should also be recycled at the dealer.

Good night

svguy

The ultimate "driver" is the sun; CO2 is a component of thermal retention via absorption of longwave radiation. Has been for (well, as long as CO2 has been around....)

Of course, since we are seeming to ignore that physical, rather immutable aspect of this basic compound, tell me, when does CO2 stop having the *fundamental* properties of CO2? (Especially given the relative mild regimes that are found in the atmosphere...)

Seemingly you have previously agreed earlier that CO2 is a longwave emitter, then seemingly state here that it might *magically* stop this behavior..... This kind of flies in the face of almost all physics that I have ever seen or learned about.....


I can point you to several (hundred, thousand, tens of thousands) of occurrences each and every day of adding (or deleting) a polyatomic compound (either polar or linear) to an environment to affect the temperature (and pressure) of that environment.

I will agree with you that the delta_T with CO2 in the atmosphere may not be accurate, but I will guarantee you (unless *something* magically shuts off the inherent longwave absorption and re-emission) that there will be a corresponding delta_T of some sort (up and until 100% saturation of all the absorption bands, which, I can assure, has not happened in our atmosphere at all).

So please, I would very much like to know your theory of how the absorption/re-emission characteristics of CO2 will not "operate" at the present concentrations? From this perspective it seems exceedingly implausible.

edited to read: the change would not be a relatively large one;

there are app. 700 gigatonnes aloft right now, so the 1 million tons would be a proverbial drop in the bucket....

and be not a huge increase over the 6 billion metric tons added by the US alone yearly....

7thsfsniper

SVGUY,
You make me feel like I'm in a college chem class lecture. I've been doodling and napping while reading your posts.






Just kiddin' with ya'. Welcome to the WAB!

svguy

Your logic is false. You are seemingly stating that "since a rise in CO2 doesn't always precede a rise in temp, CO2 can never be a temperature rise mechanism."

There are numerous mechanisms that could lead to a first rise in temperature that directly leads to an ocean CO2 outgassing. The first event could be a slight blip in solar activity. Or a methane hydrate release.

So while it might be instructive to look at past warmings (and coolings), it should also be understood that each may be the result of a different genesis. Just like looking at the Medevial Warm Period as contra-evidence of *current* CO2 effect. That is a fallacious assumption. The Medevial Warm Period is great evidence of..... well..... the Medevial Warm Period. There is no evidence to link the genesis of that to the current period.

So, with all due respect, your logic is wrong above.

Parihaka

That's the best way yet I've heard of saying "I'll look at historical precidents that bolster my argument and ignore those that don't"

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gunnut

I'm sorry. Don't mean to nitpick, but our sun is a yellow main sequence star. It will eventually become a red giant, but not for another 3 or 4 billion years.

The current flare up is not even a hiccup for the sun. It's more like a blink of an eye, both in duration and in intensity.

If we're still around when the sun becomes a red giant, we'll definitely know it. The surface of the sun will expand beyond Venus's orbit and possibly engulf the earth. It will be a global warming the likes of which Rev. Al has never seen before.

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svguy

No. A quick example:

On Monday there is a car crash at an intersection between a car going east and a car going north. The cause is unknown. (previously a climactic high was evidenced in the Medieval period, it is unknown what caused it)

On Thursday there is a car crash at the intersection between a car going east and a car going north. (there is a later climactic high)

A current theory is that the Thursday car crash was caused by driver negligence (the theory of the later climactic high is due to anthro CO2)

Since there was a previous crash, the theory that the northbound driver was negligent must be false.

Surely you can see the problems with that line of reasoning.

I will say that I would change it to "I'll look at historical precedents that [bolster my argument] can b shown to be related and ignore those that don't"

If you can demonstrate a causal connection between the MWP and the current times, then the MWP could be decent evidence of any current temperature anomaly.

Absent any causal connection, any evidence of the existence MWP else is simply that --- evidence of a MWP.

Parihaka

Well, yes if we were talking about car crashes, but we're not. What we're talking about is the claim of an unprecedented warming period.
The more we examine the historical record, the more we see that it is not.