China 'uncovers Olympic terror plot' - Page 5

mthambi · 04-25-2008, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fiona Shrot

Welcome to WAB, Mthambi!( Or should I call you Manu?)

And I am very glad that your first post was written to reply my post.

Hi Fiona,
Was just browsing through the forum. Looks very lively. You can call me manu.

Quote:

You talked about the percentage of the spending and the annual GDP. It's a very Chinese way actually.

In China, the government likes to emphasis on our rocket-like GDP(after all, the data are not bad)

However, there is three huge problems behind the superficial number of GDP. Guess what?

One: GDP is not a REAL GDP. I mean, it doesnt take the inflation into consideration. Do check the CPI index in China. Or use the GNI instead of GDP.

Two: GDP is not the gross product of the CHINESE. We absorbed so much FDI in the past decade, nevertheless, much of their profits are being transfered back to their home countries. So the GNP << GDP. And GNP can interpret how much new value China gain more clearly than GDP.

For a large country like China GDP and GNP are usually pretty close to each other (The economic activity between people/companies in China dwarf the external trade). For example from http://http://www.allcountries.org/c...l_product.html, for 2004, GDP is was 12.7billion Rmb and GNP was 12.9billion. For China GNP is larger than GDP is probably because China has a trade (and current account) surplus and therefore invests more money abroad than foreigners invest in China. (Please look up the definition of current account). Therefore China (the govt + private chinese investors) is likely to make more investment income from assets abroad than foreigners are likely to make from China.

I don't quite understand what you mean by GDP doesn't include CPI. (CPI is an annual rate and GDP is not a rate). If you are saying that GDP growth does not take into account CPI, you are incorrect. All countries report "real" GDP growth. That is (nominal GDP growth - inflation rate). So in Rmb terms China's GDP is growing by 10-11% + 2-3 inflation rate (until this year).

Quote:

Three: GDP is a gross number. When you would like to learn about one country's development, you cannot only check economy indexes. The population has to be concluded. Dont believe in the alleged number of only 1.3 billion and that the speed of its increase has been controlled very well by one-child policy. The cardinal number is much bigger than it, and the growing rate is also very quick! So even though China's annual GROSS domestic product growing rate is about 10%, its great effect vanishes when you think about the "AVERAGE" number.

My point is that because China's population (and hence GDP are so large), the costs for the Olympics are small on a per-person basis. That would not be the case if Olympics were hosted in a small country like Greece.

Quote:

Besides, China's GDP is based on huge natural resources consuming, bringing so much pollution that needs to spend a lot of money to deal with; the growing of the population gives the society a heavy burden to frost so many citizens....

You are right. The best way to make the country more energy efficient is to let the people feel the price rises of commodities. China (and also many other countries like India) subsidize petrol/diesel and hence create more pollution than needed, and at the same time use up budget resources instead of allocating them for health/education etc. If fact subsidizing petrol/diesel costs a lot more than the cost of the Olympics even before factoring in the healthcare costs incurred due to pollution.

http://http://www.rigzone.com/news/a...asp?a_id=51744

http://http://www.uofaweb.ualberta.c...39&nav01=43092

Quote:

In short, the Chinese people dont get much more benefits from the GDP, especially this year! 2008 is very tough for the Chinese! No matter luxuries or necessities, their prices are rising like a rocket(I like the word "Rocket", because of Yao

) If one never know these but only look at China's GDP number, I think she is very childish!!!!

I knew it was impossible for me to count the financial balance accurately( I already said in the first post " I am not sure about it.") How can I, a junior on campus, get all the unknown numbers? I was just estimating it, and thinking about the worst result and the best result.( One can know its interval more or less)

Olympic Game2008 is a big project and China's gorgeous party in my eyes. Before the party, we need to do the project managing carefully; and after it, all friends go back and it is still the Chinese who deal with the next. So I want to and need to be more prudential, not for boring financial analysis, but For My People!

One of the reasons China has an inflation problem is that it has been slow to let the Yuan appreciate. This caused huge imbalances in the global economy. Now they are correcting it by letting the Yuan appreciate faster. (It might be interesting to note that this is partially responsible for the sub-prime crisis here in the US: A cheap Yuan was achieved by the Chinese central bank selling lots of Yuan and buying dollars (1.3 trillion worth) and investing most of these in US bonds. This artificially drove down the cost of borrowing (long term interest rates) for the US govt and US consumers leading to unsustainable reckless lending in the US. There are ofcouse other reasons like the US Fed chairman Greenspan keeping short term interest rates too low etc.)

China has many financial/economic problems. Olympic spending is not one of them.

-Manu

Fiona Shrot · 05-30-2008, 00:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeng

Fiona Shrot,

Sorry, I am not proud of my English writing. Probably, I didn’t express myself clearly.

Dear My friend Zeng,

Sorry for my delayed reply. Hope you and your friends are well.

Quote:

Your post is long and I will probably make a long response too but not necessarily responding every of you point.

Thank you for your post. I would like to discuss with you thoroughly, but I am afraid that my time is limited. So I beg you could tolerate my English written in a rush.

Quote:

I expressed my opinion of supporting Beijing Olympic game and I am glad that there are different opinions for the Olympic game among Chinese people. I consider that it is a progress and Chinese people start to have more and more diverse views for such a magnificent event.

I also support Beijing Olympic Games, which should be a good chance for China to raise reputation, boost moral, and communicate with the rest of the world. My point was just that things were going along the way we expected.

Quote:

We have a little bit different value system and we are looking things from different angles. I think that not necessarily any of us are correct or wrong on some of the issues we don’t agree with each other. Things normally can not be judged by just white and black two colors.

Yup, I agree. Different dimensions can give us an all-sided view. Otherwise, 盲人摸象(the story about the blind touch an elephant)

Quote:

First, you put big percentage of your comments on the economic side which is by no means wrong. But I wouldn’t look at Olympic game in that way.

Money is very important

Quote:

Second, you brought out an issue that other places need money urgently, such as poor kids in rural areas and cancer patients in polluted cities. It is great that you are still thinking of them while you are on the other side of the world. I really feel proud of you and totally agree with you.

Thank you a lot. My heart is always connected with them, because my friends were mostly from poor families when I was young. (I found it quite easy for me to make friends with them)

Quote:

But I think that a nation needs to balance the 2 ends. It needs to save the poor and it also need to pursue the best.

The historic experience told us, for a civilization, for a race, for a nation, it was its best end to represent its height and usually it was its best end that eventually pulled the poor end high.

If only consider to save the poor end and stop to pursue the best end, then, almost non great man-made wonders, whether they are spectacle palaces in Europe or Forbidden city in China, or Taj Mahal in India would exist.

Good question! Without huge sacrifice in the past, there would be no Taj Mahal today. It is worthwhile to some extent. Unfortunately, our miracle, 圆明园, died in the fire set by invasive troops.

Quote:

There were huge number of poor people existed at that time when those man-made wonders were built. I should say that it was very unfair to those poor people at that time. However, their involuntary sacrifice helped human civilization to progress.

I have a question. Do you think it is right for the law ask the rich to pay more taxes? Most of rich people are well-educated and smart. If they keep their money for taxes today, they might invest more project and contribute more to the development.

There is always a conflict between the fairness and equality. A successful government has to know how to balance it.

Quote:

Through building those man-made wonders, some outstanding human beings challenged their intelligence to the limit and created/refined technology and science. That is why we call those man-made wonders the gems of human intelligence.

The technology and science pushed world to develop faster and faster and eventually save more poor people. That is the way the human civilization progressed.

If human race tried to save every poor from very start, we will be probably still living in the caves today.

So, "先富带后富" policy? The result is huge gap between the rich and the poor. Different people have different ideas about happiness and which is better in the following two situations: A. Everyone is still poor B.Your neighbor is richer than you, but you are richer now than before.

Quote:

Contrary to the education in China that ordinary people created history, unfortunately, almost none of the people who left marks on the history was really ordinary. They were extrodinary in good or bad ways.

It was the combination of a small number greedy rich/powerful people plus a small number of outstanding human minds that made the greatest contribution to the human history.

In modern world, we can not and should not ignore the poor people. We need to save them. China will have poor people in at least next 50 years. Then, should we stop pursue best thing for the next 50 years before every poor Chinese saved?

So what are you suggesting? Give up the poor and pursue "best thing"? What is the "best thing"?

Quote:

Here I talk about the balance. I personally consider it was too early for China to apply 2000 Olympic game. China was not rich enough for such a luxury event. I personally consider 2008 is good enough for China to do it. Should we wait a little bit more? May be, but it is not critical.

Personally, I even think that it is better to have Olympic game now than in the future, because we need some huge mental impact to wake us up to the real world as soon as we can afford.

The torch rally has told us a lesson how tough it can get/will get for China to enter the world stage. After the emotional period passed, Chinese people will make some deep thinking.

Why all those happened?
Do we have some responsibility for that?
Did we deal with everything in the right way?
Should we expel the journalist from Tibet?
Can we develop a more transparent and internationally acceptable way to convict those who committed crimes of setting fire and attacking innocent?

We will lean our lesson and gain our experience. Next time we will deal with this kind of situation better.

Ok, you believe we learned a lesson. Then, now could you tell me the answers to the questions you raised above?

Quote:

For your comment, “人算不如天算 (ren suan bu ru tian suan./Man proposes, God disposes.)”, in most of the cases, it was those things that we did not expect that give us the great discovery, new understanding and new knowledge. If everything goes well as calculated, it means we are repeating totally known things. We hardly learn new things from it.

Challenge yourself into the unknown is the greatest way to learn new things. Not every challenge we took will be successful. Some of them will be successful and some of them will be failure. We directly benefit from our success and learn lesson from our failures.

True. I also like to try something new or even put myself in the field out of my comfort. Hm, but, frankly, I still hope I could succeed most the time...

Quote:

Challenge yourself does not mean to be over adventurous. It means taking calculated risks. You study finance. You must understand what is the calculated risks. Of course, for an event as complex as Olympic game, the calculated risks can not just be simply calculated. But there is a way to measure it. For us human being, we have fuzzy logic brains that each of us can make some kind of risk evaluation although not necessarily always correct. My judgement is that the risk is in the acceptable range for China to hole 2008 Olympic game. I welcome you to have your judgement.

Today, Chinese is already pretty rich. You probably can not image how we came to oversea. Spend most money buying cloth and flight ticket. I brought less than $200 and a box of clothes with me and came to the new world that I knew no body except my professor who visited me once while I was in China.

China is much more money in pocket than before, but the inflation rate, the work pressure, the unreliable Yi Bao(sorry), worsening living conditions...

Quote:

However, coming into totally unknown and made fool of myself countless times, I also leant alot. Comparing to those jumping south border, probably my experience is worth nothing.

I repeat myself ” A country’s rising is not an easy thing. Avoiding difficulties should not be the spirit of Today's China. Challenging ourselves to the difficulties and overcoming them should be the spirit of Today's China.”

Here, I remember the argument about process and result. The trouble in the process could teach people and the nation a lot, and might bring them a big chance of success for the next time. But how about the result this time. It doesnt matter because the process has contributed something? Personally I like challenge not only for the process but also for champion. That's why I also emphasis a lot on the result of China's Olympic Games.

Quote:

Constructive criticism (建设性的批评), please read definition in the link below:
Critic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

.......

My job will get busy again very soon. I probably will not come to visit and make comments on this site very often in the near future. Have a nice stay here on the WAB and good luck to your study and intern application.

Thank you a lot for the discussion. I swear I read your suggestions and views carefully.
These days, many personal things also draw my attention away from this forum and it is the main reason why I reply you so late. As to the intern

, I got a rejection letter from the charity organization. I dont know why! Every interviews appeared good. Thereby, I perhaps have to do my intern in a bank this summer.

so boring...
Best wishes, Zeng. Hope you enjoy your work and the staying here. Very nice to have a long debate with you.

Ray · 05-30-2008, 11:42 AM

Fiona,

Too bad that they did not take you in the charity?

Maybe you have forgotten how to be a good Chinese (as per the CCP) with too long a stay in Ireland.

Re-educate yourself!

Zeng · 06-26-2008, 14:53 PM

Fiona,

Sorry, I did not respond your comment for so long. I was on vacation for several weeks. When I came back, lot of work is waiting for me to do. I will respond your post later when I am not so busy.

Sorry to hear that you did not get the intern you wanted. But I think that the working experience in a bank should also be very beneficial to your future carrier.

Good luck for your life.

Zeng · 06-26-2008, 14:55 PM

Ray sir,

When Fiona first told us that she was selected to study abroad in Ireland, you assumed that her family was some kind of Chinese leaders. Now she did not get the intern she wanted, you assume that her study in Ireland hurts her chance in China.

It is really disappointing me that an Indian army brigadier make assumption in such childish internet warrior way.

No wonder 1962 could happen in the way it happened. IIRC, we even captured an Indian army brigadier alive in 1962 when his troop invaded China. That Indian army brigadier must have made lot childish assumptions like what you are doing now.

**Officer of Engineers** · 06-26-2008, 14:56 PM

Zeng,

You really should know when someone is joking. The icons are a dead giveaway.

Blademaster · 06-26-2008, 16:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeng

Ray sir,

When Fiona first told us that she was selected to study abroad in Ireland, you assumed that her family was some kind of Chinese leaders. Now she did not get the intern she wanted, you assume that her study in Ireland hurts her chance in China.

It is really disappointing me that an Indian army brigadier make assumption in such childish internet warrior way.

No wonder 1962 could happen in the way it happened. IIRC, we even captured an Indian army brigadier alive in 1962 when his troop invaded China. That Indian army brigadier must have made lot childish assumptions like what you are doing now.

And it must disappoint us that an internet warrior like you is *****ing and crying like a baby over spilt milk when some big bad boy dares to criticize your country, NOOOOOOT!!!!

Go away you baby!

dave lukins · 06-26-2008, 17:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeng

Ray sir,

When Fiona first told us that she was selected to study abroad in Ireland, you assumed that her family was some kind of Chinese leaders. Now she did not get the intern she wanted, you assume that her study in Ireland hurts her chance in China.

It is really disappointing me that an Indian army brigadier make assumption in such childish internet warrior way.

No wonder 1962 could happen in the way it happened. IIRC, we even captured an Indian army brigadier alive in 1962 when his troop invaded China. That Indian army brigadier must have made lot childish assumptions like what you are doing now.

Xiao Xin! Cai bushi! DO NOT INSULT AN ARMY OFFICER..EVER..WARRIOR YES..CHILDISH ..NEVER

Wan an

Ray · 06-26-2008, 23:13 PM

Zeng,

I do not wear my rank in public.

And anyway, I don't think that matters in a public forum.

I am a commoner and equal amongst all and not First Amongst Equals as in China!

Thank you.

05-30-2008, 11:42 AM	#63 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,148 Country:	Fiona, Too bad that they did not take you in the charity? Maybe you have forgotten how to be a good Chinese (as per the CCP) with too long a stay in Ireland. Re-educate yourself! __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA Last edited by Ray : 05-30-2008 at 11:45 AM.

06-26-2008, 14:53 PM	#64 (permalink)
Zeng Contributor Join Date: 01-16-07 Posts: 586 Country:	Fiona, Sorry, I did not respond your comment for so long. I was on vacation for several weeks. When I came back, lot of work is waiting for me to do. I will respond your post later when I am not so busy. Sorry to hear that you did not get the intern you wanted. But I think that the working experience in a bank should also be very beneficial to your future carrier. Good luck for your life. __________________ I am here for exchanging opinions.

06-26-2008, 14:56 PM	#66 (permalink)
Officer of Engineers *Military Professional* Moderator Scotch taster Join Date: 08-06-03 Posts: 15,917 Country:	Zeng, You really should know when someone is joking. The icons are a dead giveaway. __________________ Chimo

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06-26-2008, 14:55 PM	#65 (permalink)
Zeng Contributor Join Date: 01-16-07 Posts: 586 Country:	Ray sir, When Fiona first told us that she was selected to study abroad in Ireland, you assumed that her family was some kind of Chinese leaders. Now she did not get the intern she wanted, you assume that her study in Ireland hurts her chance in China. It is really disappointing me that an Indian army brigadier make assumption in such childish internet warrior way. No wonder 1962 could happen in the way it happened. IIRC, we even captured an Indian army brigadier alive in 1962 when his troop invaded China. That Indian army brigadier must have made lot childish assumptions like what you are doing now.

06-26-2008, 23:13 PM	#69 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,148 Country:	Zeng, I do not wear my rank in public. And anyway, I don't think that matters in a public forum. I am a commoner and equal amongst all and not First Amongst Equals as in China! Thank you.

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