antelope

Just because you see similiar symptoms doesn't mean you are observing the same disease in the same circumstance. I am not predicting this will happen tomorrow and that it is inevitable. Long term however America or any country for that matter can not simultaneously run up a massive government debt, run a massive trade deficit, and maintain reasonable interest rates and inflation. America has some unique abilities at this point in history to forstall but not eliminate the results of these actions. If this continues long enough the government will monetarize the debt (out of control inflation) or be forced into economic austerity. The devaluation of the dollar during the past century in terms of purchasing power is the result of doing the same thing but on a smaller level.

I am with you about the war being worth the cost. I do however think the government can not win the war with the force structure and tactics employed thus far. The government has not sold the people on the real cost to win this war. Pretending it can be done on the cheap and saying it will be better tomorrow does not make it so.

antelope

Don't assume things about people you don't know.

If China dumped all their U.S. currency and sold all their U.S. securities tomorrow on the open market it would have dramatic effects on the U.S. economy. When dealing with China in a crisis it is one of many issues I hope those making the decisions understand.

I 100% support support the current war. I call it the "Half-Ass War on Terror". I call it that because it has been executed in a half-ass manner. I think the government hoped to turn Iran and Syria once they saw what happened in Iraq. It hasn't worked out that way. Now if we are going to win this war the remaining terrorist states need to go, Iran and Syria.

We do not have sufficient troops in Iraq to control the situation based on the tactics we use. We do not have sufficient troops in the military to occupy Iraq, Syria, and Iran during a transition phase based on our tactics.

Not following through to victory in the end will be worse than never fighting this war. You get no points for effort. Let's win this war and quit pretending things will be OK doing more of the same.

Note: I fully expect us to attack Iran in 2005.

Julie

Well, I have to agree with the "half-ass" part. China, however, will not sell all their U.S. securities on the open market because not only would it have a dramatic effect on the U.S. economy, it would be a domino effect on many other countries as well. China relies heavily on their exports to other countries, and this would, in turn, devastate China's economy once it came back full circle. It won't happen.

I majored in marketing and management while in college.

antelope

I never expect China to do it either. I do think that if they faced a military crisis with America, especially over Taiwan it would be a strong card they could threaten to play.

If real hostilities did occur China would have no reason NOT to dump these securities and currency since at that point their U.S. export market would not exist anyway. Dumping half their supply and seeing the consequences might well put America into a position to agree to a cease fire under threat of having the other half dumped.

Praxus

We spend more on the welfare state in a single year then we have spent on both wars (and that's including the yearly military budgets). Not only would ridding ourselves of this burden (the welfare state) even if over a stretch of 10-20 years, allow us to wage the war, we could could rid ourselves of the deficit in just a couple years.

But nah, let's complain about a war which we need to fight, while ignoring the big fat elephant sitting on our faces.

Veni Vidi Vici

I have a degree in computer science so my opinion isint particularily valid, but I beleive that all currencies go up and down. America is in a downhill movement but as always it will go up again and most likley be better off at the end of the road then it was before it started. I mean even with all that is happening right now the US is still undisputidly the largest economic block in the world with double the economy of the next largest (Japan). Look on the bright side. God their are too many pessimist around.\

^
opinion of someone not qualified.

__________________
"Our citizenship in the United States is our national character. Our citizenship in any particular state is only our local distinction. By the latter we are known at home, by the former to the world. Our great title is AMERICANS…" -- Thomas Paine

antelope

Remember, I am not complaining about the war, just the poor way it is being executed.

Like you I would like to get rid of the welfare state. Unfortunately right now we have a government that doesn't have the will to end the welfare state and also doesn't have the will to expand the military to win this war. They are trying to have it both ways, a peacetime America economy and welfare state while saying we are in wartime. Something has to give. Right now we end up with a huge federal deficit and not enough troops.

I read at this site the opinion that the war can not be expanded even by those that say they support the war because of manpower and cost. To me this is like those who wanted to fight in South Vietnam but don't want to carry the war to the North. Nothing has changed since the early 1970s in this thinking.

Here's an idea: No more welfare or unemployment to anyone physically fit between 18-37 because the government needs soldiers. Double military pay for all E-1s through O-2s. Expand the Army to 1.5 million. Institute the draft if we don't get enough volunteers and let's conqueor Iran and Syria. Let's get this war over with. I don't want to be fighting an insurgency in Iraq for the next 10 years and end up going home just like we did in 1973 from Vietnam just to see it collapse two years later with everyone who served there serving for nothing in the end.

Praxus

I agree.

I'm not in favor of any welfare state, even during peace. It is uneffective at it's best, economicly destructive, and immoral.

If we were to engage in an all out war against thoose who attacked us and the countries which support them, this war would be over in a matter of months. This is to say invade Iran and Syria and firebomb any city that puts up resistence. the smae policy should be carried out in Iraq. Pull as many troops out of South Korea, Japan, and Okinowa as nessecary.

With the welfare state gone we could afford it. Not only double the pay but give more benefits as well. And if we were going to carry out my policy they would have little fear of death.


No need for a draft, and furthermore it is fundamentally immoral.

antelope

All currencies do not go up and down. Prior to the last century there were many national currencies that held a fairly stable value for over 100 years.

The value of a currency is simply related to how much of the currency the government has in circulation relative to the size of the economy the currency is a medium of exchange in. When the money supply increases at the same rate as the economy grows you have a stable currency. When the money supply increases faster you get a devaluation of your currency. When you run a trade deficit in which goods are payed with your currency it takes your currency out of circulation until it is exchanged. In time the currency of the nation running the trade deficit loses value to the nation with the surplus as the deficit nation has a shortage of the surplus nations currency to trade to get its own currency back.

When a nation runs a long term deficit it must ultimately borrow more of its own currency from the public or foreign nations at higher and higher interest rates or else it must print more money thereby inflating its economy and devaluing the holdings of those who hold its currency.

As anyone with a credit card and a check book knows sooner or later you can't borrow money to pay for things you don't have the money for. In the case of people you get cut off from borrowing by an outside force. In the case of government you print more money, which is basically changing the rules of exchange, with the net result that the government takes a portion of the money from those who own their currency and call it "inflation" or devaluation. In the case of the U.S. the majority of the people who hold dollars and have their wealth taken through this indirect action are those with savings accounts, CDs, and U.S. debt obligations.

Although speculation drives currency values in the short term it is the actions of the governments backing and printing the currency that decides their value long term. The 5 cent loaf of bread would be here today if the government could control itself.

antelope

I agree with you. To a large extent our current failure to win this war is a direct result of using tactics that limit our ability to win. Saddam Hussein had no problem putting down an insurection in Iraq, neither did Hafez Assad in Syria. To some extent I think this war will be won or lost based upon whether we have the will to wage this war in a manner that brings us victory. I want to win this war but I question whether the government and the American people have the will to do what needs to be done.

I think 2005 will tell us one way or the other. If at this time next year things are the same in Iraq as they are today and Iran and Syria are still feeding the insurgency I think we will be doomed to Vietnam number 2. I have faith however that George Bush has no intention of letting this happen.

Officer of Engineers

First, unless the US is willing to tolerate a Mongol solution, then a draft is the absolutely wrong idea. Professional soldiers can be regined in from excesses (if you accept less, you are less). Conscript soldiers cannot (the hell with those mother****s).

That is not to say that the US has not practise Mongol solutions before. Sitting Bull and Imperail Japanese Marines will readily tell you about American ruthlessness.

2nd, we can be ruthless in combat and still be able to emerge victorious without being ruthless in justice. The Indians have shown the way. Kashmir gives me hope.

__________________
Chimo

Bluesman

Absolutely right. We'll win, and we won't have to gas Iraqi kids to do it.

__________________
"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
- George Orwell

Praxus

I didn't say anything about Gasing. Your appeal to emotion is cute however.

dalem

As a buddy of mine put it - you win by being absolutely ruthless. Ruthless means being willing to kill civvies on Monday, accept dead American soldiers on Tuesday, and work with the UN on Wednesday.

Whatever it takes.

-dale

Bluesman

Hm. I suppose antelope's reference to Saddam crushing his rebellious populations and destroying their insurrections against him by using gas on civilians was unknown to you.

My bad, but I assure you that I had faith that anybody posting here would've known that widely-reported fact, and I in no way meant to appeal to your emotions. I'm not even certain what effect such an appeal would've had on you.

Love the 'rolleyes' smiley. It was...really eloquent.