Canmoore

CTV.ca | North and South Korea sign summit declaration

Do you think it is possible that North and South Korea may reunify?? I know that if it happened now, south Korea would go bankrupt. Eventually however something has to give...

TopHatter

Ugh...

The reward for defeating Communism?

Billions and billions of dollars to repair decades of sloth, waste, negligence, blundering, bungling, wishful thinking, environmental desecration, "economic" "planning" that was neither economic, nor planning, nor rooted within a few thousand lightyears of reality....damn, did I miss any?

Canmoore

would that affect the global market? Or just the regional markets?

I draw a comparison with reunification of West and East Germany.

Ironduke

It would negatively impact South Korea as a result of transfer of wealth to North Korea. Mass immigration could have a severe impact on the South Korean labor market. The difference between SK and NK are much greater than the differences between WG and EG. NK has half the population of SK, whereas EG had a quarter of WG's.

Furthermore, the East German population was educated, and while not at the standard of living of Western Germany, was much, much closer. The people of Communist Europe weren't anywhere near as indoctrinated as the North Koreans. East Germany was first-world compared to North Korea.

As remote as they are, Chinese occupation or even a multi-power occupation followed by a transition period is more likely than reunification.

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The Buck Stops Here

entropy

You missed the people that are barely capable to do anything because all they have been taught is hailing the Dynamic Duo and stealing food to survive.

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If memory serves...

Tarek Morgen

You wont see any unification in Korea in the near future, and specially not one "German style":

According to the Frei Universität Berlin the cost for the Reunion for Germany are over 1.5 Trillion € and as stated in a post above me the GDR was far better of than North Korea is now. While infrastructure had to be completely rebuilt, there was at least an infrastructure to begin with, in many part the education in the east was even better than in the west (ok, doesn't help much when the economy can put that to use). While shortage was an ever current problem in the GDR nobody was starving (even though the morning coffee could become extremely rare at time) compared to what problems the people in North Korea face. A few weeks back I did some calculation and compared the BMP ofht GDR in 89/90 (per head) with the one of Mexico has now, and was surprised to see that they are pretty much the same figures (But while Mexico is getting somewhat better the GDR was collapsing, an important differences), so the first reason why there simply cant be a reunion because nobody could afford it. SK has not the means to rebuilt NK on its own, has it has a smaller economy (compared to Germany) but faces a much bigger task.

The next reason would be China which would try pretty much it can to prevent it. Less because they like the Dear Leader so much (actually I think they would not mind him gone), but cannot risk a united Korea as it would become a much bigger regional power direct at its border which is very friendly to the U.S. and even as U.S. forces based there. Of course there is a good chance that a reunion would ruin SK (as mentioned above), but sooner or later they would recover, even if it would take 30 years or even more.

The USA is certainly no friend of NK, but I nevertheless think that they like the this way offered opportunity to have troops stationed in SK and Japan to keep an eye on China and Russias backdoor. A reunion would destroy the (official) argument for stationing the troops at leas in SK.

And last North Korea (which means Kim Jong-Il) cannot accept a reunion since there is no way SK would accept him being part of any unified Government, and the whole NK-state is based on him, even more than Nazi-Germany was based on Hitler.

(I am wondering how it takes somebody who actually knows something about the topic to prove everything wrong what I just wrote...ja mei)

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uh I might be wrong

Feanor

I don't know. The North and South have become remarkably close, for two countries still at war. The North has actually opened the border for small numbers of tourists, and family members to visit. Some Southern companies are actually allowed to work in the North. Maybe not in 5 or 10 years, but probably in 50, the South and North will re-unify. And it probably won't take Chinese, or American intervention.


P.S. The North isn't communist. I hope the members here understand that. Whatever limited socialist policies might have been in place during the 60's, at this point the North is a hereditary dictatorship combined with a brutal cult of personality, and a practically feudal economy.

Tarek Morgen

Sorry but that doesnt really impress me to much, when I think about how all this (and even more) could also be said to the GDR and FRG even during the worst times of their relationships (like 61), but maybe I simply compare ot too much with our history. But I did not want to say that there will be never a union, but the path will be much longer and much harder than for Germany. A simple Regime Chance wont be enough. It will takes years (or decades) of effort to prepare both countries for a union. Still wish em good luck though.

Feanor

Everything is relative.

wkllaw

Based on the reports of the tourists coming there, I somehow doubt either side is getting particularly close to each other and I doubt the tourist thing is really helping either side understand the other since the tourist never see the real North Korea.

The companies operating in North Korea are only operating in a few kilometers. I doubt that will make much of a difference.

I also doubt any politician with intelligence in South Korea will honestly desire reunification immediately. I think they will really push for some reunification when NK opens up and makes some reform and go through their industrial revolution. In order for that to happen, I think quite a few people including Kim Jong will have to die first.

I don't know what will happen in 50 years, but the way things are going aren't particularly encouraging.

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Those who can't change become extinct.

Bigfella

All of this is predicated on a peaceful reunification. If it gets nasty the ROK will be playing 'whack a mole' with fanatical DPRK guerillas for decades. Mountains, paranoia & lots of well hidden arms are a bad combination. So lets hope it is all peaceful.

I don't see a reunification in the fashion of Germany. While Korea might be united in name, I'm going to bet that the North is turned into some sort of 'special administrative region'.

My bet is that the Sth will appoint administrators & take advantage of decades of conditioning to try to keep the population in place. Don't expect that border fence to suddenly tumble down, and don't expect a sudden political integration of the Nth into the Sth.

I suspect that once everyone is guaranteed food (be prepared to pay out big time international community) local administrations will be set up to help redistribute land & privatize businesses. This sort of process is fraught with danger (see Russia & China) and could sow the seeds of future problems. The first thing, however, is to get agriculture functional & try to employ as many people as possible doing something. Idle hands...

After a period of years I could see local & provincial democracy being set up, as people get used to the idea of thinking for themselves. Integration into the national political scene would obviously take longer, but it would be important to start creating Northerners capable of representing their people & running administrations. No one likes to feel like they are under occupation, even when that occupier is their liberator.

It may not all be I don't know much about the level of education of people in the Nth. Obviously critical thinking is low on the agenda, but communist societies have always been pretty good at literacy & technical education. Nth Korea also has something that East germany didn't have - it is surrounded by large & successful economies. The north borders THE boom economy of the early C21st and has two of the boom economies of the late C20th next door. East Germany, by contrast, had a successful but unspectacular Western Europe on one flank & equally (if not more) screwed up formewr Warsaw pact nations on the other side.

This means that there will be ready markets for anything the Nth can make or sell, and destinations for excess labor to seek employment. Expect a system of issuing 'green cards' to Northerners seeking to work in the Sth.

The presence of China, Japan & the ROK nearby also means that there will be lots of cashed up capitalists ready to take advantage of a population that will literally work for food.

Having said this, the problems of a nation that cannot even feed itself cannot be underestimated. It will take generations & a LOT of money to get the DPRK functional. but at least the ROK has the example of the fmr GDR to study before it all happens.

gunnut

A sudden and full reunification will be disasterous for the region. Kim knows that.

What I think he's doing is to slowly, even slower than what China did, bring NK up to speed. He needs to slowly open up a few border towns at first. Get those people some spending money and production for the nation. Then the trickle down economy will take place and slowly filter the wealth inland.

This will take decades. Probably well beyond Kim's life time. But it will ensure that he stays in power and in control of the military.

Kim might be a mad man. But he's not stupid.

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Ironduke

Food is cheap.

West Germany was one hell of a spectacular economy -- until reunification. The average Warsaw Pact citizen was better off in every sense of the word than the average Chinese person is today. China may have glittering cities on the coasts, but that belies that 80-90% of the population that the people in the rest of the country who don't share that standard of living.

I could see that -- but at the very least NK is going to require effective civil government, infrastructure (ports, railroads, highways... electricity) and so on to be able to attract foreign investment.

The former GDR and the DRRK are on entirely different levels... the average Nigerian is as wealthy as the average North Korean. North Korea simply cannot be compared to any former communist states. Most African nations' citizens are economically better off than North Koreans.

Bigfella

True

West Germany's postwar performance was impressive indeed, but no more so than Japan or the ROK. I don't have figures on the combined size of those economies is probably double that of West Germany at the time (the combined populations are). However, I doubt either nation will take on the DPRK rebuilding in the way Germany did with the GDR.

Growth in China may be uneven, but the scale is scary. The proportion of China's population doing well is still larger than the population of E.Europe was in 1989, and it is growing. The point about China relative to the former Warsaw Pact is that the economy is not stagnant or in decline, but expanding rapidly. Eastern Eurpoe is still making the transformation from communism. Economically China is a lot further down that path, creating markets for DPRK raw materials, labor & perhaps even manufactured goods that the absorbed GDR simply didn't have.

I haven't done enough study to know quite what state the DPRK's physical infrastructure is in. But given that it had a relatively successful industrial economy into the early 70s, I suspect that a lot of the basics are in place, if in poor shape. This differs significantly from most African nations, where such infrastructure as exists is often pretty scarce, in addition to being crappy.

Unfortunately I don't have the time to really follow up on this, but my bet is that the DPRK has better infrastructure than Albania & much of Africa & even somewhere like Burma, but has so devastated its human capital & let its economy fall apart that there simply isn't the money to fix any of it. Doesn't help that most of the cash there is goes to the military (much like some African nations). Average incomes, in this case, may not tell the whole story.

My point about having Germany as an example is that the ROK will know not to simply make the former DPRK into a part of the nation & try to modernize it as such. i think they will take a radically different approach.

Canmoore

So do you all think that the north will slowly integrate itself into the south, rather than vise-versa? If kim wants to destroy the south what better way to do it, than unleash millions of starving north Koreans onto the south? Even after the regional economy collapses, the north Koreans will be better off than they are now..