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Hongkongfuey
07 Sep 05,, 11:22
It's time to set the facts right on the Mori poll. That's the purpose of this thread, because it's been used time and time again by certain posters as some sort of bizarre "proof" that Kashmiris would want to join with India rather than Pakistan in plebiscite. First i'll set you up with an article about the MORI poll by an Indian paper, to give you an idea of who and what was behind the poll, and the possible motives and then i shall give you some expert analysis, courtesy of myself ;) I think you will find my analysis holds more water than that of the likes of Sameer and Indianguy4u.



Who commissioned the MORI survey?

Survey officials fight shy of naming client – was it Government of J&K, Government of India, the notorious RAW, big business, or was it the Government of the United Kingdom? says John Dayal

Euphoric newspapers flashed the PTI news on page one, and next day, Editorial writers said the UK based market research company Mori had been quite right in stating that most Kashmiris (in the Indian part of Kashmir) would rather stay with India than go to Pakistan. Unfortunately, the unpublished fact was that only nine (9) per cent of the people in Srinagar thought so, while 13 per cent preferred a Pakistani citizenship. The happier figures came from Jammu.

Many questions remain unanswered about the survey, including the one as to who financed it. Mori does not do things for free. Their interests at all times, it makes clear, are commercial with a bottom line it must, correctly, meet. Interestingly, there is no record if Mori ever conducted a similar survey in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, of Azad Kashmir as Islamabad describes it. If the Indian government did not finance the survey, further questions are raised as to how such a sensitive survey was permitted to be conducted at a time when India and Pakistan are threatening a nuclear war and the state of Jammu and Kashmir is at the epicenter of the confrontation.

Tracing the India link of Mori was not difficult, but getting an answer was impossible. Mori does its India work through Prakash Nijhara, of an outfit based in Mumbai and called “Facts Worldwide India Pvt Ltd.” Prakash, reached on his mobile phone refused to give any details, other than saying that the company as a matter of policy keeps the identity of its clients a close secret. He would neither confirm nor deny speculation on whether the client was a corporate one, or Indian or foreign government.

Perhaps he has reason to keep that matter confidential. The report sent by PTI and used by the Indian media patriotically, has larger dimensions than the ones published. While Indian newspapers published all that favoured India, the PTI report did not mention the extent of polarization on the basis of religion the survey revealed in the Indian Kashmir between people living in Jammu, the valley and in Leh. Jammu is largely Hindu, the Valley largely Muslim (more so after the forced exit in the last ten years of the Kashmiri Pundits who fled in the face of terrorist violence which began when Jagmohan was governor of the state), and Leh has a substantial Buddhist flavour.

The report shows perceptions differ on almost every issue. The people of Jammu oppose greater autonomy for Kashmir, an ardent desire of the people of the valley. On human rights violations by militant groups in Jammu and Kashmir, 96% of those in Jammu believe such violations are widespread whereas only 2% of those in Srinagar believe they are widespread (although 33% believe they are 'occasional'). Perceptions of the role of Pakistan are also mixed. Those in Jammu and Leh mostly blame Pakistan, while those in Srinagar more think it has made no real difference (41%) than that it has been either good (35%) or bad (23%).

On the issue of citizenship, 99% of respondents in Jammu and 100% in Leh felt they would be better off as Indian citizens, 78% of those in Srinagar said they did not know while 9% felt they would be better off as Indian citizens and 13% as Pakistani citizens.

In the interests of the full truth, the following is the full public text of MORI’s public statement on their survey, as also details about Mori and its affiliate in India.
http://www.milligazette.com/Archive.../1506200228.htm


Expert analysis by HongKongFuey
Hindus (Jammu), Buddhists (Leh), who have no affiliation to Pakistan think that ECONOMICALLY they would be better off joining with India (this is true, they probably would be). Muslims (Srinigar, the Valley), believe they would be better off joining Pakistan than India, ECONOMICALLY (which they probably wouldnt but they still prefer to join with Pakistan than India). The majority of the Kashmiri population is Muslim, hence the Valley would be more indicative of the true attitude of the majority of Kashmiris (as Kashmiris are a majority Muslim population after all). So hold the plebiscite, Pakistan in fact advocates free and fair plebiscite!!

bull
07 Sep 05,, 11:31
whoa!!!
Some one just gave an expert analysis!!! :eek:
Im sorry cant stop laughing.

Hongkongfuey
07 Sep 05,, 11:35
Some more analysis of the clever questions asked by Mori, as provided by aryan.



First of all, you need to bear in mind this poll was conducted in a region known for voter intimidation and bullying by security forces, as late as the 2002 election (as reported by many western news sources). You can't take its validity for granted just as you couldn't take any poll conducted in Saddam's Iraq on his popularity as gospel. The only real way to ascertain Kashmiri feeling is an impartial UN sponsored plebscite, in the absence of foreign soldiers or security forces. HongKongfuey comment. Yep, coersion has been used by many Indian troops during previous elections. Fear of the common Kashmiri Muslim of reprisals by Indian troops would cause them to appease their surveryors.



A very clear majority of the population - 65% - believes the presence of foreign militants in Jammu and Kashmir is damaging to the Kashmir cause, and most of the rest take the view that it is neither damaging nor helpful.



Believing the militants are damaging to the Kashmiri cause is by no means asserts what you are intending, that Kashmiris hate militants and love the occupation soldiers. Its interesting to




Overall, two thirds of people in Jammu and Kashmir take the view that Pakistan's involvement in the region for the last ten years has been bad. Only 15% believe it has been good for the region, while 18% say it has made no real difference.




Again, the conclusions you may from this are wrong. Notice the fact it mentions the past 10 years. Believing the involvement of Pakistan to be bad over the past 10 years is not necessarily evidence that Kashmiris feel Pakistan's involvement to be bad over the past 60 years. Also, the negative involvement may be because Kashmiris feel Pakistan of the past 10 years isn't doing enough to assist the freedom struggle, and just paying it lip service. Addendum, HongKongFuey - Three locations were surveyed, Jammu (mainly hindu) would of course be think that Pakistan's involvement was bad. The Kashmir Valley (mainly Muslim) statistics, where are they? why arent they included? The Kashmir Valley is more representative of the make-up of the Kashmiri population because Kashmir is mainly Muslim). Jammu has been given a disproportionate weight since it is an oddity in Kashmir demographics. End Addendum, HongKongFuey



On the issue of citizenship, overall, 61% said they felt they would be better off politically and economically as an Indian citizen and only 6% as a Pakistani citizen, but 33% said they did not know."



This is a carefully worded question. It isn't asking whether Kashmiris would prefer to be Indian or Pakistani, its asking which would make them better off politically and economically. Its obvious Kashmiris would be better off being Indians, simply because India has far more money to throw at Kashmir and their stooges in Srinagar. India is a larger and more economically powerful country than Pakistan.
Addendum, HongKongFuey - Three locations were surveyed, Jammu (mainly hindu) would of course be better of politically as part of India in the eyes of those people. The Kashmir Valley (mainly Muslim) would prefer to be with Pakistan than India. The Kashmir Valley is more representative of the make-up of the Kashmiri population because Kashmir is mainly Muslim). Jammu has been given a disproportionate weight since it is an oddity in Kashmir demographics. End Addendum, HongKongFuey

indianguy4u
07 Sep 05,, 11:38
Some more analysis of the clever questions asked by Mori, as provided by aryan.Are u paid agent of someone. Who the hell is he. Whats his repute. Has he contributed in any papers/site of repute. Supporters jihadi & terrorist pigs.

Hongkongfuey
07 Sep 05,, 11:51
MUMBAI: Times News Network interviewed 59-year-old Prakash Nijhara, managing director of Facts Worldwide, an affiliate of Mori in India, which conducted the survey in Kashmir.
Excerpts: Who commissioned Mori to conduct the opinion poll?
I am sorry I cannot disclose that. I have been asked by Mori to maintain the confidentiality of the client. hkf :biggrin:
How many people were interviewed by your staff ?
We interviewed 850 persons. Oooo, 850 out of 8 million people and you interviwed a third of them from Hindu dominated Jammu, even though Kashmir is about 80% Muslim :rolleyes: )
Don’t you think that this sample is too small considering the fact that J&K has population of at least six million people as per the 1981 census?
Definitely not. hkf :biggrin: This sample is large enough to reflect the true mood of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We interviewed persons in the 16-plus age category and the survey was spread across 55 localities. Of these, 22 were in Jammu, 20 in Srinagar, six in Leh, four in rural areas around Srinagar and three in areas around Jammu. The quotas were set by gender and religion within each locality. The survey covered all the parameters taken into consideration in an exercise of this nature. Any other opinion poll agency would have done the same thing. Let me also point out that Mori is to the UK what Gallup is to the US. It enjoys a high level of credibility.
But considering the fact that you are dealing with a sensitive and volatile region involved in a protracted international dispute, should your sample have been bigger? (and not representative of the majority Muslim population - HKF)
A lot of thought has gone into this survey. lol - hkf This issue raised by you was also debated by us with Mori and the client and it was felt that the sample of 850 would be appropriate. Most clients in India would use a similar sample size to get feedback on the issue on hand. The sample size used by us is fairly large and the margin of error in such an exercise would be plus or minus three. Face-toface interviews were conducted and, on an average, 35 minutes was spent with each member of the sample.
When was the survey conducted and are the findings reflective of the current mood in the state?
It was done from April 20 to 28 this year, which is a recent enough survey. Because of the tension, we had to complete the survey as expeditiously as possible. We had parallel teams working in Jammu and Srinagar and followed it up to Leh. Twenty people were involved in the exercise. The questionnaire was translated into Urdu and Hindi. In Srinagar, local people were engaged to conduct the interviews. The people were very receptive. The Union home ministry had granted us permission for the survey. But we were not required to use that.
If 61 per cent of Kashmiris want to be with India, wouldn’t it be in the interests of India to hold a plebiscite as demanded by Pakistan and solve the problem once for all?
This is something for the government of India to decide. All that I can say on the basis of the survey results is that 61 per cent of the people unequivocally stated that they would be better off politically and economically as Indian citizens and only six per cent favoured Pakistani citizenship.
J&K chief minister Farooq Abdullah and several others have suggested that the line of control (LoC) should be converted into an international border.
Why wasn’t this crucial question posed to the people?
This question has to answered by Kashmiris on either side of the LoC. Our sample did not include people in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
What is your own assessment of the situation in the Valley?
Based on the feedback which I got from there, I feel that there is a need to undertake a confidence-building exercise in the Valley. The government needs to take the people into confidence. Once that is done, it will be easier to tackle the problem. The people there want economic development and free and fair elections. We should do these things instead of being obsessed with Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-12400501,prtpage-1.cms

bull
07 Sep 05,, 11:53
MUMBAI: Times News Network interviewed 59-year-old Prakash Nijhara, managing director of Facts Worldwide, an affiliate of Mori in India, which conducted the survey in Kashmir.
Excerpts: Who commissioned Mori to conduct the opinion poll?
I am sorry I cannot disclose that. I have been asked by Mori to maintain the confidentiality of the client. hkf :biggrin:
How many people were interviewed by your staff ?
We interviewed 850 persons. Oooo, 850 out of 8 million people and you interviwed a third of them from Hindu dominated Jammu, even though Kashmir is about 80% Muslim :rolleyes: )
Don’t you think that this sample is too small considering the fact that J&K has population of at least six million people as per the 1981 census?
Definitely not. hkf :biggrin: This sample is large enough to reflect the true mood of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We interviewed persons in the 16-plus age category and the survey was spread across 55 localities. Of these, 22 were in Jammu, 20 in Srinagar, six in Leh, four in rural areas around Srinagar and three in areas around Jammu. The quotas were set by gender and religion within each locality. The survey covered all the parameters taken into consideration in an exercise of this nature. Any other opinion poll agency would have done the same thing. Let me also point out that Mori is to the UK what Gallup is to the US. It enjoys a high level of credibility.
But considering the fact that you are dealing with a sensitive and volatile region involved in a protracted international dispute, should your sample have been bigger? (and not representative of the majority Muslim population - HKF)
A lot of thought has gone into this survey. lol - hkf This issue raised by you was also debated by us with Mori and the client and it was felt that the sample of 850 would be appropriate. Most clients in India would use a similar sample size to get feedback on the issue on hand. The sample size used by us is fairly large and the margin of error in such an exercise would be plus or minus three. Face-toface interviews were conducted and, on an average, 35 minutes was spent with each member of the sample.
When was the survey conducted and are the findings reflective of the current mood in the state?
It was done from April 20 to 28 this year, which is a recent enough survey. Because of the tension, we had to complete the survey as expeditiously as possible. We had parallel teams working in Jammu and Srinagar and followed it up to Leh. Twenty people were involved in the exercise. The questionnaire was translated into Urdu and Hindi. In Srinagar, local people were engaged to conduct the interviews. The people were very receptive. The Union home ministry had granted us permission for the survey. But we were not required to use that.
If 61 per cent of Kashmiris want to be with India, wouldn’t it be in the interests of India to hold a plebiscite as demanded by Pakistan and solve the problem once for all?
This is something for the government of India to decide. All that I can say on the basis of the survey results is that 61 per cent of the people unequivocally stated that they would be better off politically and economically as Indian citizens and only six per cent favoured Pakistani citizenship.
J&K chief minister Farooq Abdullah and several others have suggested that the line of control (LoC) should be converted into an international border.
Why wasn’t this crucial question posed to the people?
[COOR=red]This question has to answered by Kashmiris on either side of the LoC. Our sample did not include people in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. [/COLOR]
What is your own assessment of the situation in the Valley?
Based on the feedback which I got from there, I feel that there is a need to undertake a confidence-building exercise in the Valley. The government needs to take the people into confidence. Once that is done, it will be easier to tackle the problem. The people there want economic development and free and fair elections. We should do these things instead of being obsessed with Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-12400501,prtpage-1.cms

Thanks....(for the laugh)

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 15:24
Did you ever expect a people who live under a Millitary junta to even understand the concept of a poll, why else create the 3rd Kashmir thread lol. :)


Such desperation, such idiocy, such fundamentalism. Howcan we ever have peace with such Islamic extremist views

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 15:26
Did you even learn that 850 people selected randomly is a large enough sample size as per statistics 101, heard of beysian rule? Normal distribution?


How can we even discuss with such madrassah educated lot.

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 15:29
About the Islamic website used to "rip a British professional poll service apart"

from the CHinese named Pakistani's link

Before we could realize it, we have entered our sixth successful year of existence! A humble effort to put the community on the media map is a powerful voice today, heard not only in India but all over the world. For all our humble resources, we now reach all parts of the globe putting forward the news, views, developments and aspirations of the 1200-million strong Ummah of Islam. From 16 pages an issue we steadily progressed to 32 pages. We will, insha Allah, add more pages as we progress to a weekly, in due course of time, speaking for the whole Ummah and not just for the Indian Muslim community which is a very important member of the world Muslim community. We already have a national and international network of writers, correspondents and contributors. (To checkout The MG Team click here)
We receive visitors from from almost all countries such as Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, American Samoa, Andorra, Angola, Anguilla, Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaidjan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bermuda, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Botswana, Bouvet Island, Brazil, British Indian O. Terr., Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Buthan, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Cayman Islands, Central African Rep., Chad, Chile, China, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Isl., Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Falkland Isl.(Malvinas), Faroe Islands, Fiji, Finland, France, France (European Ter.), French Southern Terr., Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Great Britain (UK), Greece, Greenland, Grenada, Guadeloupe (Fr.), Guam (US), Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Guyana, Guyana (Fr.), Haiti, Heard & McDonald Isl., Honduras, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazachstan, Kenya, Kirgistan, Kiribati, Korea (North), Korea (South), Kuwait, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Martinique (Fr.), Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldavia, Monaco, Mongolia, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherland Antilles, Netherlands, Neutral Zone, New Caledonia (Fr.), New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Isl., Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Pitcairn, Poland, Polynesia (Fr.), Portugal, Puerto Rico (US), Qatar, Reunion (Fr.), Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Soviet Union, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Helena, St. Pierre & Miquelon, St. Tome and Principe, St. Kitts Nevis Anguilla, St.Vincent & Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Svalbard & Jan Mayen Is, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tadjikistan, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tokelau, Tonga, Trinidad & Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Turks & Caicos Islands, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, US Minor outlying Isl., Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Vatican City State, Venezuela, Vietnam, Virgin Islands (British), Virgin Islands (US), Wallis & Futuna Islands, Western Sahara, Yemen, Yugoslavia, Zaire, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 15:30
Islamic madrassah educated websites bent on the creation of the Ummah dont count in any intellectually fulfilling debates sorry.


The logic of HOng Kong seems to be a professional statisticalservice<Ummah kind website :biggrin:

Jay
07 Sep 05,, 16:07
For all our humble resources, we now reach all parts of the globe putting forward the news, views, developments and aspirations of the 1200-million strong Ummah of Islam. From 16 pages an issue we steadily progressed to 32 pages. We will, insha Allah, add more pages as we progress to a weekly, in due course of time, speaking for the whole Ummah and not just for the Indian Muslim community which is a very important member of the world Muslim community
WTH is a Ummah? :rolleyes: 1200 Mill? Not one less, not one more??

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 16:18
Ummah= One Islamic community, the creation of one Islamic state compromising of all the Muslims of the world is eventually envisaged.

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 16:45
Also in case HK has confused you with madrassah mathematics and statistics.


The actualy percentages of each religion as per MORI international, A PROFESSIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE REPUTED IN THE UK AND ABROAD, minus in jehadi circles of course, is as follows.

Religion

Muslim 60 %
Buddhist 4 %
Hindu 34 %
Christian *
Sikh 1 %

Town/region
Srinagar City 35 %
Jammu City 40 %
Leh 9 %
Rural (Srinagar) 7 %
Rural (Jammu) 8 %

Srinagar+ rural areas equals to 41%. Most responders (60%) were Muslims.


http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insights/insight20020601b.html

Jay
07 Sep 05,, 16:47
Ummah= One Islamic community, the creation of one Islamic state compromising of all the Muslims of the world is eventually envisaged.
I know what an Ummah is :biggrin: I was wondering, if this so called ummah concept ever exist outside the author's otherwise empty space between his ears.

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 16:51
Also the Mori site mentions 95% confidence Interval, you do not have to be a statistics major to understand what this means and what this has to do with sample size accuracy.
(i have ajoint degree in the damn subject) but i will avoid lecturing and let google fill you in.


I simply could not help myself when i read and saw the Pakitani with the CHinese name laughing at a sample size of 850 randomly selected variables from a professional statistical institution reputed around the world.


But you are probably right HK a site serving the Ummah is probably better than a statistical institution. Afterall madrassahs teach this type of logic and we just cant beat that.

indianguy4u
07 Sep 05,, 17:31
Also the Mori site mentions 95% confidence Interval, you do not have to be a statistics major to understand what this means and what this has to do with sample size accuracy.
(i have ajoint degree in the damn subject) but i will avoid lecturing and let google fill you in.


I simply could not help myself when i read and saw the Pakitani with the CHinese name laughing at a sample size of 850 randomly selected variables from a professional statistical institution reputed around the world.


But you are probably right HK a site serving the Ummah is probably better than a statistical institution. Afterall madrassahs teach this type of logic and we just cant beat that.
He expects that each & every one should be intervied. Man does the dickhead understand by the meaning of poll.

PS: Exit poll for last gen election of India had on an avg less than 35,000(pop 600 million) , so taking 850 out of 7.7 million is not that bad.

Hongkongfuey
07 Sep 05,, 17:41
Also in case HK has confused you with madrassah mathematics and statistics.


The actualy percentages of each religion as per MORI international, A PROFESSIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE REPUTED IN THE UK AND ABROAD, minus in jehadi circles of course, is as follows.

Religion

Muslim 60 %
Buddhist 4 %
Hindu 34 %
Christian *
Sikh 1 %

Town/region
Srinagar City 35 %
Jammu City 40 %
Leh 9 %
Rural (Srinagar) 7 %
Rural (Jammu) 8 %

Srinagar+ rural areas equals to 41%. Most responders (60%) were Muslims.


http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insights/insight20020601b.html

Actually, you're wrong on this. Those values are for Indian-occupied Kashmir only. If or when Kashmiris vote in a plebiscite, it will be for the whole of Kashmir, Pakistan occupied Kashmir, Indian occupied Kashmir ( including Ladakh). Let's look at the religious groups of all these areas.

http://www.zackvision.com/weblog/archives/entry/000468.html

That map looks mostly Muslim to me, then Buddhist, and then Hindus occuping a tiny fraction at the bottom. So 80% is about right. interviewing a third of the people for the poll from Jammu where they're mostly Hindu, whilst Hindus represent probably about 10-15% of the total Kashmiri population is just wrong. You're putting nearly 3 times the weightage to them, than their actual population demographics. You're also not giving enough weightage to the Muslim group, which would ludicrously skew the whole poll.

indianguy4u
07 Sep 05,, 17:47
another of his rantings :tongue:.

Ray
07 Sep 05,, 17:47
HOngkong,

An interesting issue you have raised though I have read in a most perfunctory way.

Not that it affects since the issue of Kashmir is well settled in its status quo freeze and neither side can really take the other side by force since the terrain precludes major military action.

However the issues that you have raised are worth a look and check.

Sameer
07 Sep 05,, 18:31
60% opf the pollsters were Muslims,a clear majority, quit arguing with a professional statistical service like Mori, do you even have a degree in statistics?

Do you even have adegree?

:)

Vaman
08 Sep 05,, 00:01
Does it matter?
Bottomline: You aint getting the candy. Go ahead and whine stomp your feet as much as you want. :biggrin:

Hongkongfuey
08 Sep 05,, 02:07
This is a significant part of the results, that convinces me the "MORI poll" was not representative of Kashmiri opinion.

Samples of people were taken as follows
Srinagar City 35 %
Jammu City 40 %
Leh 9 %
Rural (Srinagar) 7 %
Rural (Jammu) 8 %

Jammu is a small region of Kashmir shown in the map below. Jammu CITY is a place in Jammu region in the blue portion (>90% Hindu) of the map below. 48% of all pollsters have come from this city and surrounding villages that are from the >90% Hindu part of Jammu region. However, the attitude of people in Jammu city (>90% HIndu) is most likely not going to be the attitude of someone in the Doda region of Jammu (50-90% Muslim). Assumptions made by the poll that differences in attitude are determined by religion are probably not true by this stage of the war. People more directly affected by the war (in Kashmir Valley) will have differences of opinion from those not affected by it (like in Jammu).

The samples therefore are in fact a reflection of the opinions of people in the >90% Hindu part of Jammu city. The sample does NOT include the larger part of Jammu region (about 70% Muslim) and so the poll is ignoring regional variations in attitude. All that the results from Jammu city show from the polls, iare the opinions of a region that has >90% Hindu population (the blue part of the map below), and no exposure to Indian Army/militant atrocities.

I will ask you all. Is it fair to sample HALF of your poll from a region representative of the tiny blue blip at the bottom of the map, and to claim this blip represents the viewpoint/experiences of half of Indian-administered Kashmir, LET ALONE HALF OF KASHMIR ITSELF?!?!!

Kashmir is a complex mix of ethnicities and religious beliefs even within a region like Jammu, there is not an even spread of attitudes/experiences. This is more likely to mould opinion rather than religion.

Note in proof

In total, 850 interviews were completed, face-to-face, with adults aged 16+ across 55 localities within Jammu and Kashmir. This comprised 22 localities in Jammu City, 20 in Srinagar City and 6 in Leh (urban areas), as well as in 3 villages around Jammu and 4 villages around Srinagar (rural areas).
http://www.mori.com/polls/2002/kashmir.shtml


Attitudes and experiences of Kashmiris will vary from region to region depending on what experiences they have had with with security forces/ militants, and on their religion to a lesser extent. The poll assumes a homogenous attitude across the entire region of Jammu or Kashmir Valley or Ladakh that is based on differences in religion. Experiences would be the more important than religion in my opinion.

http://www.zackvision.com/weblog/archives/entry/000468.html

Hari_Om
08 Sep 05,, 04:47
Hongkongfooey,

There is no huge mystery as to who commissioned the poll, unless of course one is a conspiracy theorist. :biggrin:

The BBC (http://newswww.bbc.net.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2017631.stm) informs us that the “poll was commissioned by a British cross-party group of MPs and the Friends of Kashmir.”

“Friends of Kashmir”, FYI was then headed (Maybe even now) by Lord Eric Reginald Avebury, a Lib Dem Peer I believe.

Pakistani's need have no fear of Lord Avebury's credentials.

He is a fellow traveller ;) though of late some attempt of distancing himself from things Pakistani is discernible.

Hongkongfuey
08 Sep 05,, 05:38
Hongkongfooey,

There is no huge mystery as to who commissioned the poll, unless of course one is a conspiracy theorist. :biggrin:

The BBC (http://newswww.bbc.net.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2017631.stm) informs us that the “poll was commissioned by a British cross-party group of MPs and the Friends of Kashmir.”

“Friends of Kashmir”, FYI was then headed (Maybe even now) by Lord Eric Reginald Avebury, a Lib Dem Peer I believe.

Pakistani's need have no fear of Lord Avebury's credentials.

He is a fellow traveller ;) though of late some attempt of distancing himself from things Pakistani is discernible.

Yep, it appears to have been commissioned by Friends of Kashmir (group of Scottish MPs) who are advocates of plebiscite and the UN resolutions of Kashmir (including Lord Avebury). But that is besides the point. Friends of Kashmir only commissioned MORI to do the poll. Then MORI needed to get the permission of the Indian government in order to carry out this poll. Why was no poll carried out in Pakistan occupied Kashmir? Well, this question was asked to Lord Averbury who explains it as lack of resources



Avebury, a human rights activist who belongs to the 20-member, London-based Friends of Kashmir Group, comprising British politicians and businessmen, said the poll was meant to "allow the Kashmiri people’s voice to be heard".
Describing as "legitimate", questions about why Pakistan-occupied Kashmir was not surveyed as well, the British peer said "we had a lack of resources, that is why we restricted ourselves to in and around Srinagar, Jammu and Leh and could not even go to Baramullah, Ananatnag and Sopore".
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/11578822.cms


Note, he does not say that Kashmiris want to join with India, unlike the artcile title trumpeted by the timesIndia.

He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India


Avebury said "the poll showed much had changed in Kashmir, but the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights should also be allowed to send rapporteurs there".
In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process


However, the question of the poll's origins are not my major contention. It's the way it's been sampled. You have to note that MORI does not come to the stark crystal clear conclusion that the Indian geniuses on here and media come to that Kashmiris favour India over Pakistan. The poll is not a reflection of people's attitiudes right across the state of Kashmir. It is not even a fair reflection of people's attitudes across Jammu and the Kashmir Valley.

Samudra
08 Sep 05,, 05:42
Touche !
So fuey has been exposed.

Pathetic.

Hongkongfuey
08 Sep 05,, 08:20
Looking at this MORI poll further i begin to dislike it even more. Here's the main beef i have with it. A logical answer by someone would be good, not the usual trolling.

The impartial, completely neutral statistical research guru of MORI's affiliate company in India, Prakash, has based his statistical analysis method on the religious demographics of Kashmir. This is clear from the tables on the MORI page. Alright, what's wrong with that, you ask..Well, to see what's wrong with it, you'll need to look at two maps of Kashmir, showing the population make up of each region and the religious make up. I only have the 1981 maps but these are similar in proportion to todays figures. They can both be seen at the end of this post.

Right, let's look at what the intrepid, impartial, neutral Kashmir poll researcher, Prakhash believes.

Prakhash's method
1) Interview 850 people from Jammu, Kashmir Valley and Ladakh - HKF comment : Fine
2) We're running out of resources so can only select three regions and a couple of surrounding areas KHF comment - This will make the poll even more inaccurate, but resources are finite, so live with it.
3) Sampling will be done from 22 locations in Jammu City, and 20 in Srinagar City (42 of the 55 localities selected or over three-quarters of the sampling from these two cities alone). 25 of the 55 localities (nerly 50% of the localities used in the sample) for the poll will be from the Jammu region (>90% Hindu as shown by the map below). HKF comment - :biggrin: lol, dont make me laugh. Sampling nearly 50% of your localities from a >90% Hindu region is supposed to be representative of Kashmir? Is Kashmir half Hindu now? :biggrin:

Proof of the figures :-


In total, 850 interviews were completed, face-to-face, with adults aged 16+ across 55 localities within Jammu and Kashmir. This comprised 22 localities in Jammu City, 20 in Srinagar City and 6 in Leh (urban areas), as well as in 3 villages around Jammu and 4 villages around Srinagar (rural areas).
http://www.mori.com/polls/2002/kashmir.shtml


What the poll has done is to say that the proportion of each religious group sampled from these mainly city areas will be similar to the proportion of each religious group present in the overal region of either Jammu, the valley, or Ladakh. A look at the map shows that Jammu has some areas that are majority Muslim, such as Doda. It has been assumed that the attitudes of people in a region that is >90% Hindu will be reflected in the Muslim majority regions of Doda and Rajauri inside Jammu.
HKF comment - If Jammu city (>90% Hindu) is not representative of Doda and Rajauri (each 50-90% Muslim) then the assumption is wrong and the whole statistical analysis becomes flawed. For example, let's say I sample 850 people from a city in Doda, 30% Muslim and 66% Hindu (Jammu proportions), but people have a slightly different experience of th Indian Army in that region, then this would skew the poll the other way, and suggest a different picture in Jammu City than what was observed. to emphasize the point, 27% of those polled said that Indian Army atrocities were widespread, and 54% of those polled said it was non-existent.

The most important point of the poll is that it does not take into account the people of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, that form 30% of the Kashmiri population.

Other points are that the poll only asks who they would be politically and economically better off with, India or Pakistan, you'd need to ask them who do they want to join, India or Pakistan. A better question to have asked is, who would you vote for in plebiscite, India, or Pakistan? But then, that would shatter the dreams of many Indians. :cool:

Concluding from all this that Kashmiris would prefer to join India over Pakistan is bordering on sheer comedy. :)

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 12:09
Hongkongfooey,

There is no huge mystery as to who commissioned the poll, unless of course one is a conspiracy theorist. :biggrin:

The BBC (http://newswww.bbc.net.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2017631.stm) informs us that the “poll was commissioned by a British cross-party group of MPs and the Friends of Kashmir.”

“Friends of Kashmir”, FYI was then headed (Maybe even now) by Lord Eric Reginald Avebury, a Lib Dem Peer I believe.

Pakistani's need have no fear of Lord Avebury's credentials.

He is a fellow traveller ;) though of late some attempt of distancing himself from things Pakistani is discernible.

What is even worse is that HK showcases his lack of knowledge of what a sample is and what confidence intermal of 95% really means. From using Ummah links to having repetitive posts over and over again to creating 3 kashmir related thread, it only showcases that Pakistanis like him believe that madrassah logic>Mori International, a company that has statisticians working for them,a repute bar none in the UK.

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 12:44
Pakistanis can huff and puff all they want, they will never get kashmir and are now being forced to close down terror camps, the whole world is on them, the FBI is in pakistan, tsk ts tsk, poor guys, i really feel sorry for them.


HongKong, quit creating endless threads and join the Jehadi movement and at least try to get Kashmir back on behalf of the kashmiri brothers who "love Pakistan so much".

Aryan
08 Sep 05,, 13:57
Thumbs up HK :)

Sameer, we know about Gaussian distribution or confidence intervals or Chi squared distribution, It isn't my forte, but I have had more than enough experience on SPSS to know what I am talking about. A lot more than they teach at that rat temple of yours, mind you ;)

The point me and HK are making has nothing to do with the statistical analyses used on the data, but the validity and nature of the data itself.

We dispute the reliability of any poll carried out in Kashmir, because of the "chilling effect" the presence of human rights abusing security forces can have on free speech in the region.

We dispute the fact that the questions of the poll are the equivalent of a plebiscite. The questions were carefully worded to avoid what should have been a simple poll. Examples given are the questions asking about opinions on Pakistan's involvement over the past 10 years.

We object to the fact only information deemed positive to India was propogated by the Indian press and yourselves. For instance, the fact that more people favoured Pakistan's involvement in Srinagar, and that more in Srinagar felt they would be better off economically and politically with Pakistani citizenship than Indian. Both these points were convieniently ignored by the mainstream of Indian media, it was only the through Milli Gazette that I found it.

We also object to the origin of the poll. We agree that MORI is a distinguished and reputable organisation, but “Facts Worldwide India Pvt Ltd" is neither.

The fact that you've stopped talking about the poll and decided to rant on about Kashmiri militants and freedom fighters. Well don't worry, its just a matter of time until the Indian army is kicked out of Kashmir. Like the Egyptians said of the British, "you can do everything with a bayonet except sit on it"

indianguy4u
08 Sep 05,, 14:01
Thumbs up HK :)

Sameer, we know about Gaussian distribution or confidence intervals or Chi squared distribution, It isn't my forte, but I have had more than enough experience on SPSS to know what I am talking about. A lot more than they teach at that rat temple of yours, mind you ;)

The point me and HK are making has nothing to do with the statistical analyses used on the data, but the validity and nature of the data itself.

We dispute the reliability of any poll carried out in Kashmir, because of the "chilling effect" the presence of human rights abusing security forces can have on free speech in the region.

We dispute the fact that the questions of the poll are the equivalent of a plebiscite. The questions were carefully worded to avoid what should have been a simple poll. Examples given are the questions asking about opinions on Pakistan's involvement over the past 10 years.

We object to the fact only information deemed positive to India was propogated by the Indian press and yourselves. For instance, the fact that more people favoured Pakistan's involvement in Srinagar, and that more in Srinagar felt they would be better off economically and politically with Pakistani citizenship than Indian. Both these points were convieniently ignored by the mainstream of Indian media, it was only the through Milli Gazette that I found it.

We also object to the origin of the poll. We agree that MORI is a distinguished and reputable organisation, but “Facts Worldwide India Pvt Ltd" is neither.

The fact that you've stopped talking about the poll and decided to rant on about Kashmiri militants and freedom fighters. Well don't worry, its just a matter of time until the Indian army is kicked out of Kashmir. Like the Egyptians said of the British, "you can do everything with a bayonet except sit on it"
Go bang ur head against the wall !!.

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 14:03
Mori has published this poll and Mori supports this poll and the poll is credited to MORI International.


Whatever you may know pales in comparison to what MORI INTERNATIONAL KNOWS.


Rat temple?


ahhh I see that the madrassah Islamic side is comming out of the closet yet again. :)

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 14:05
"The fact that you've stopped talking about the poll and decided to rant on about Kashmiri militants and freedom fighters. Well don't worry, its just a matter of time until the Indian army is kicked out of Kashmir. Like the Egyptians said of the British, "you can do everything with a bayonet except sit on it"


You yourself actually have speculated that the interviewed pollsters were somehow answering questions under pressure from Indian officers. I have only mentioned millitancy once one post ago lol. As for the rest of your madrassah post, keep on dreaming.

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 14:09
I also doubt that a madrassah educated lad who talks about rat temples would have the intellectual ability to understand sample size and Chi Squared distribt, which (Chi square) by the way has nothing to do with the MOri Poll, of course you would know that Mr Wizzard.


:)

Actually the Chi squared part was too funny


The frequency of the smaple is not in question.
:biggrin:

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 14:15
In conclusion

Mori International is wrong, a reputed company that has statisticians working and who conducted and reviewed the poll and published it, they are all wrong I tell you, ummah.org and the likens that troll its environs are right.

aka

madrassah statistics>MORI

commissioned by British MPs and the Friends of Kashmir


all conspiracy I tells you!!!! :)

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 14:24
In all the wars started by pakistan or funded by Pakistan or supported by pakistan, Pakistan has ended up badly, this trend will continue for years to come. Now we know that Pakistan also started the 65 war, it has always been the agressor, it will always be a terrorist sponsoring state.

(in response to the coment) about India loosing Kashmir one day. :)


Pakistanis should try to have some pride and let Kashmiris discuss with the GOI about their future. Most kashmiris dont want Pakistani involvement.


THE FACT THAT ARYAN WOULD MENTION RAT TEMPLES ETC, speaks volumes about the level of education of the like minded madrassah lot.

:biggrin:

feel sorry for them, hopefully whatever is up there will forgive them for being brainwashed.

Aryan
08 Sep 05,, 15:10
You brought up my "madrassa education", I mentioned your rat temple education. Simple as that. And is it really necessary to reply to one post with 5 posts? Not a single one of your posts had anything of any meaningful value, except to try and incite a flame. Be wary that a number of your compatriots have been banned for this reason, and rules apply to all. If you don't have any constructive to post, don't bother posting.



You yourself actually have speculated that the interviewed pollsters were somehow answering questions under pressure from Indian officers. I have only mentioned millitancy once one post ago lol. As for the rest of your madrassah post, keep on dreaming.

I was talking about the legal phenomenon known as the "chilling effect". An officier doesn't have to be standing next to the pollster with a trained rifle for its effects to come into effect. The fact that a person may feel that what he is saying may incriminate him or lead to his persecution might be enough for him to change or "chill" his beliefs.

Sameer
08 Sep 05,, 16:04
I will not bother replying to your BS Aryan
MORI international a reputed org has published it on their site, it has been 3 years now, they still stand by it. Enough said.

p.s: there is no such thing as rat temple education, there is such a thing as madrassah education wherein students memorize the Holy Boo of Islam and little else, ie no sciences, math etc,

To others

Poll or no poll, the only solution to the problem remains a EU type framework for India and Pakistan where kashmir is granted greater autonomy and India and Pakistan create a free trade zone in the province making Kashmiris the richest ppl in the subcontinent in a matter of years. Pakistan and India can share former Central responsabilities such as infrastructural spending, jobs creation measures and demillitarizing the area. That is the most realistic solution to the Kashmir problem that both India and Pakistan appear to be converging to in the future short of war.

Take it or leave it, no other real possibility exists wherein any of the two countries will mutually bnefit and accept.

Gabru47
08 Sep 05,, 21:36
He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India

Quote:
Avebury said "the poll showed much had changed in Kashmir, but the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights should also be allowed to send rapporteurs there".
In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process

However, the question of the poll's origins are not my major contention. It's the way it's been sampled. You have to note that MORI does not come to the stark crystal clear conclusion that the Indian geniuses on here and media come to that Kashmiris favour India over Pakistan. The poll is not a reflection of people's attitiudes right across the state of Kashmir. It is not even a fair reflection of people's attitudes across Jammu and the Kashmir Valley.


Don't have alot of time but I'll give my two cents. I don't think that text is conveying the idea that the poll was conducted by India, rather its saying that Kashmiri people are asking for democratic instiutions, even if it is organized and run by India.


I was talking about the legal phenomenon known as the "chilling effect". An officier doesn't have to be standing next to the pollster with a trained rifle for its effects to come into effect. The fact that a person may feel that what he is saying may incriminate him or lead to his persecution might be enough for him to change or "chill" his beliefs.

Wouldn't you agree that there is coercion coming from the terrorists, Aryan? I don't think you have to search too long to find an article saying that someone's family has been murdered in Kashmir, usually brutally involving beheadings, rapes and all that good stuff a particular community is known the world over for, just for cooperating with the Indian government. Wouldnt you agree, Aryan? What do you call that, positive coercion?

brownboi4eva
08 Sep 05,, 21:52
Your pathetic excuse for an army couldnt wrestle it from us in 4 wars i doubt showing this article after 4 wars is going to help...maybe in 1947...heck you guys are lucky we didnt turn you into a parking lot in 1971

Ray
09 Sep 05,, 06:00
Yep, it appears to have been commissioned by Friends of Kashmir (group of Scottish MPs) who are advocates of plebiscite and the UN resolutions of Kashmir (including Lord Avebury). But that is besides the point. Friends of Kashmir only commissioned MORI to do the poll. Then MORI needed to get the permission of the Indian government in order to carry out this poll. Why was no poll carried out in Pakistan occupied Kashmir? Well, this question was asked to Lord Averbury who explains it as lack of resources



Note, he does not say that Kashmiris want to join with India, unlike the artcile title trumpeted by the timesIndia.

He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India


However, the question of the poll's origins are not my major contention. It's the way it's been sampled. You have to note that MORI does not come to the stark crystal clear conclusion that the Indian geniuses on here and media come to that Kashmiris favour India over Pakistan. The poll is not a reflection of people's attitiudes right across the state of Kashmir. It is not even a fair reflection of people's attitudes across Jammu and the Kashmir Valley.


Rather weak for a robust defence!

Interesting and excellent however is your tantalising rhetoric that conveniently forgot to mention that it was commissioned by UK MPs and leaving the suggesting just off the cliff so to say.

Are you a journalist or a lawyer? You have the makings of a fantastic career in either fields!

I did not like journalism because a journalist is a person without any ideas but with an ability to express them and conveniently forgetting to dot the 'i's and cross their 't's; a writer whose skill is improved by a deadline: the more time he has, the worse he writes.

I don't like lawyers because Punjabis pronounce the word "lawyer" as "liar". Then the choice of expertise is so limited. There are three sorts of lawyers - able, unable and lamentable. I wish to be none of them; and for the reason that Lawyers and painters can soon make what's black, white.

Not a pleasant way to be remembered!

Ray
09 Sep 05,, 06:26
You brought up my "madrassa education", I mentioned your rat temple education. Simple as that. And is it really necessary to reply to one post with 5 posts?

It is laudable that in Islamic countries there is this madrassa education. At least, that is education! Helps the statistics of indicating overall literacy!

I am totally in agreement that it is a besides the point that it is confined to swotting verses of yore and concretising the Faith of the individual thus indulging in swotting.

That this incredulous zeal that such swotting imbibes and a great number turn terrorists to plague the world is also besides the point.

Unfortunately, except for the Moslems, in India there are no "religion only" swotting schools. Thus, the Indians are so hopeless bereft of religious zeal. Rather unfortunately Godless is what zealots who run madrassas would feel, but I feel that we are fotunate!

I wonder if any Rat temple has a religion only or all encompassing school!

The only rats I know of are the terrorist and their schools are know as madrassas and not Rat temples even if it would be appropriate to call madrassas so!

BTW, I worship nature. Pagan to you, if you wish. I love to give space to rats, but honestly speaking, they do become a menace!

Hari_Om
09 Sep 05,, 06:57
p.s: there is no such thing as rat temple education


Sameer,

You may have read Aryan wrong. ;)

He might be referring to an education system followed in a Sufi “Temple” ( Sufi’s are after all just shy of being Kaffir’s among the Wahabbi’s ) of Dola Shah in Gujrat, Pakistan, that might involve Children being :



.... made to wear metal caps which constrain the normal growth of the head, rendering them physically handicapped and mentally challenged. .....

The link, courtesy the UN is :

PAKISTAN: Focus on rat-children (http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=30390&SelectRegion=Central_Asia)

Hongkongfuey
09 Sep 05,, 06:58
He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India



Avebury said "the poll showed much had changed in Kashmir, but the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights should also be allowed to send rapporteurs there".
In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process


Don't have alot of time but I'll give my two cents. I don't think that text is conveying the idea that the poll was conducted by India, rather its saying that Kashmiri people are asking for democratic instiutions, even if it is organized and run by India.



I was talking about the legal phenomenon known as the "chilling effect". An officier doesn't have to be standing next to the pollster with a trained rifle for its effects to come into effect. The fact that a person may feel that what he is saying may incriminate him or lead to his persecution might be enough for him to change or "chill" his beliefs.


Wouldn't you agree that there is coercion coming from the terrorists, Aryan? I don't think you have to search too long to find an article saying that someone's family has been murdered in Kashmir, usually brutally involving beheadings, rapes and all that good stuff a particular community is known the world over for, just for cooperating with the Indian government. Wouldnt you agree, Aryan? What do you call that, positive coercion?

The bit where Avebury talks about, "In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process", the democratic process he refers to here is to the "fair, but not free" elections, as described by the BBC.



The institute's director, George Mathew, said where good security was provided, turnout was not always high, suggesting many people stayed away for ideological reasons.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2313347.stm


Such statements and facts show the disillusionment of the ordinary Kaashmiri for the political process (who can blame them when you have all the political parties allowed to run supporting India). The main objective of the MORI poll was not to show whether Kashmiris would prefer to join India or Pakistan, but to gauge the opinions of Kashmiris for the democratic process. It's a start in this respect, but in no way can it be said to represent what the Kashmiri people think, chiefly for the following reason :-

The sample of Srinigar is too large (48% of those polled : The poll should have taken from Jammu should have taken the same fraction of people polled as the Jammu region represents : 943 / 5871 = 11%. Taking 48% of your poll from Jammu is placing to high an emphasis on the local attitude there. Srinagar represent 708 / 5871 = 8%. In fact, 42% of pollsters came from this region. Leh represents 68 / 5871 = 1% of Kashmir. 9% of pollsters came from Leh. Add these figures up, and the results of the MORI poll are reflective of 19% of the total Kashmiri population!! .

But then there is the ridiculous conclusions of the Indian posters on here and their semi educated media claiming the poll shows that Kashmiris want to join India. Firstly, the right question was not asked : It should not be which country do you think you would be politically and economically better off in, but which country would you vote for in a plebiscite. Secondly, sampling the attitudes of 19% of Kashmir does not allow you to come to a statistical conclusion about the remaining regions of Kashmir. If 80% of Kashmir was sampled, then that would be enough for me, but 19% is way way to low. You cannot assume that Kashmiris will base their responses on religion alone ; their experiences of war, such as in the Valley, or not of war such as in Jammu, will in my opinion be the biggest factor in the opinions of the Kashmiris. Let us ignore the fact that coersion has been used by the Indian Army in the past to instill fear into the Kashmiri population, you still have a poll that is at best a representation of 3 areas of Indian-occupied Kashmir (out of a total of 21 regions in Kashmir). This cannot be a poll that is representative of the people of Kashmir and Avebury himself has described the lack of regional sampling as a "legitimate" problem with the poll - It is only a very very rough indicator, and you seem to want to take it as Gospel. That's fine, hold the plebiscite.

Your point to Aryan, Aryan can answer, but i'll give you my 2 cents on it anyway.
You don't have to search too long to find a NEUTRAL article saying with a high level of confidence that someone's family has been murdered in Kashmir, usually brutally involving tortured to death, systematic rapes, summary executions, just for being SUSPECTED of cooperating with the armed liberation outfits. Let me draw your attention to this list. Given the Indian Army's history of covering up crimes and trying to blame them on the insurgents, dont you think this is very hypocritical coming from you. Virtually EVERY neutral human rights agency with a creditable reputation has described the SYSTEMATIC rapes of Kashmiri women, not just a few rotten apples here and there, but the use of rapes to torture women suspected of being sympathetic to the insurgents, the disappearances of young men suspected of being insurgents, the torture of men and women, the list is endless of the crimes being committed in Kashmir.

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/index.htm
http://www.amnestyusa.org/women/document.do?id=130CC715AEA97B67802569A500714D22
http://www.phrusa.org/research/torture/torcra.html
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2001/07/14/india167.htm
http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/engASA200472000?OpenDocument&of=COUNTRIES\INDIA
http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/kashmir/1996/

A very touching introduction in this one :-

http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/engASA200021999?OpenDocument&of=COUNTRIES\INDIA

Some more on the renegade militant secret police in Kashmir :-

http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/kashmir/1996/India-07.htm#TopOfPage

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/defenders.htm
http://web.amnesty.org/802568F7005C4453/0/00175E7C6771935780256A24004651F6?Open
http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/impunity.htm

One of your own even
http://www.india-seminar.com/2000/496/496%20report.htm

Further, your accusation that its the militants that do the killing of civilians isnt found when you look at the chronology of the killings in Kashmir.



Beginning in 1995, militant groups began to systematically attack Hindu villagers in the area. Although militant groups had targeted Hindu communities and individuals previously, these new and apparently indiscriminate attacks were marked by a viciousness that had not previously been seen in the conflict. Nineteen-ninety-eight was a particularly bad year; more than 200 civilians were killed in attacks by these groups. In 1999, militant groups used the occasion of the historic summit between the prime ministers of India and Pakistan on February 20 to massacre twenty Hindu civilians in three separate attacks in Kashmir.
http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/index.htm


Rapes, killings of civilians and torture were routinely carried out at the beginning of the 1990s by the Indian Army and its secret police, with impunity. The human rights organizations know it, the world knows it, you do not oddly enough. From what I can see the Indian Army is more savage and brutal when it comes to torture and raping of Kashmiris than the militants, so I wouldnt even try and accuse the militants of being worse than your Army and its associated secret police. In this sort of atmosphere, with all these documented records of proven cover ups, the ability to act with impunity, the lack of a judicial process, can you say that the Kashmiri people were not answering polling questions in fear of their lives considering you had a New Delhi based company doing the questioning?

You're really a pathetic excuse of a human being.

Sameer
09 Sep 05,, 15:30
NOONE, repeat noone, dear village idiot has claimed that the poll showed that Kashmiris wanted to join India, the poll said that if Kashmiris had to chooose between India and Pakistan, they would choose India and that Pakistanhas only hurt their cause. What I SAID was that either Pakistan stops supporting terror and engages in final settlement in the form of the muted EU framework or akistan leaves Kashmiris alone to engage the GOI on whatever they wish, ie its not Pakistan's problem.

Sameer
09 Sep 05,, 15:37
Oops I forgot


the village idiot repetitive posts can be concluded as follows


India evil, terrorists and Pakistan good. All his posts can be summed up in a few such lines.

Hongkongfuey
09 Sep 05,, 22:08
Examples of other MORI polls people believe are inaccurate



Home Office stacking the decks in ID scheme pilot?
By John Lettice
Published Tuesday 21st September 2004 11:40 GMT
Call us suspicious-minded, but we feel sure that at some point in the very near future the UK Home Office will announce that the biometric identity system pilot scheme currently running has been a success, and that the response from participants has been positive. This might seem a remarkable achievement, under the circumstances, considering that there have been numerous reports of technical glitches and an underwhelming response to the pilot, but The Register has received indications that the Home Office has taken the precaution of loading the dice.

At least as far as the participant reactions are concerned. A questionnaire is being presented to those signing up for the pilot, but participants aren't being given copies of the questions they're being asked, and the best we can establish after some correspondence with the Home Office (we've blogged it for you below*) is that the Home Office intends to keep the questionnaire a closely-guarded secret.

But in surveys, questions are frequently used to massage the data in order to produce the desired results, and there is some evidence that this is precisely what the Home Office is up to. Marketing consultant Ben Fleming-Williams, who signed up for the trial for his own interest and kindly offered to report back to The Register, says that: "Instead of asking an absolute 'How was your experience of the trial', the question was 'How was your experience of the trial, compared to your expectations?'."

Fleming-Williams has some experience of producing questionnaires, and points out this means that "people with terrible expectations can have a bad experience, but all the questionnaire will capture would be 'Better than expected'." He also noted that the question relating to people's concerns about biometrics was limited to their concern about having their data stored for the trial, not in the long term. "I couldn’t care less about how they’ll be stored for the trial, because I know it’s not going to have any effect on how I’m treated in real life. So the question doesn’t get anywhere near what they’re meant to be trying to find out.

"The girl who was taking me through the trials said the first time she’d looked at the questionnaire she’d had the same reaction as me, but that 'we only have so much control over what goes in there', or something to that effect. I mentioned it to her boss as I left, too, who happily informed me that the people who write questionnaires (in this case, it sounds like the government did it themselves) are usually in another world!"

These questions certainly seem to have been devised by someone with a particularly narrow agenda, and will produce a response with no significant validity as far as the biometric identity scheme in general is concerned. The Home Office published the objectives of trial here, (towards the end of the page), and the relevant objective here is "to assess customer perceptions and reactions." Which could of course simply mean customer perceptions and reactions to the pilot, but in that case, when it presents the results the Home Office ought not to claim broader relevance.

This part of the pilot is being managed by MORI , and the report will be the property of the Home Office, which is the client. The nature and content of the survey will have been devised in consultation with, and with the approval of, the Home Office, and MORI as the contractor is clearly not able to release information or comment. MORI will produce a report for the Home Office, and the Home Office will be free to use this as it sees fit.

The results are also likely to be skewed for another reason; a low response rate could be undermining the objective "to ensure a representative sample of the UK population." a Scotland on Sunday report in June claimed that a lower than expected applications meant the shortfall would have to be made by people being "dragged off the street" outside processing centres. And just last week Guardian journalist Martin Wainwright reported that when the ID roadshow made its appearance in Harrogate the pilot was still 1,500 volunteers short. Wainwright also reports that his fingerprints " were compared by satellite in a matter of seconds with some 1,000,000 records, including a temporary library of biometric volunteers", which is interesting, if true, as it suggests the data from the trial is compatible with at least some existing fingerprint data. It could of course be sample data produced by the equipment vendors.

As regards the survey data, the proof of the pudding will be clear when we see how the Home Office presents the conclusions. To The Register's knowledge, however, the Home Office has played fast and loose with the presentation (to the public, and to Parliament) of other data in relation to the identity scheme, and we have grave doubts that things will be different this time.

* Is it or isn't it? It was one of those simple fact-checking calls that we just knew was not going to be simple. Open and shut case, MORI is conducting the thing, so call the MORI press office and ask for some help. Yes, we understand that MORI is simply the contractor here and that it therefore can't comment on the pilot, but it's just a simple query: is it possible for either a volunteer or the press to have a copy of the questions?

They'll get someone to get back to us. And shortly afterwards we have an email from Home Office press officer Peter Wilson saying "I don't have a copy of the questionnaire to give out - though of course you can see it if you go and take part in the trial. It basically asks questions covers questions for each biometric (facial, iris, fingerprint) on: privacy; how concerned they were having it taken; was it intrusive; how long it took; positioning; overall feeling about it, how the experience measured up to expectations. The same goes for the verification process. There is also a question asking how useful the volunteer thinks biometrics could be in increasing passport security and stopping ID fraud, and whether they are an infringement of civil liberties."

So we have a gloss of the questions telling us what the Home Office says they cover, but we do not have questions. We seize on his not actually saying we can't have a copy by mailing back: "Thanks Peter, but that doesn't quite answer the question of whether I or people enrolling can have a copy of the questionnaire. If I can, then can you point me at someone who does have one to give out, and if I can't, can you confirm that to me?"

That's a simple one, isn't it? Apparently not. Replies Wilson: "No, we don't have copies to give out." Which still doesn't answer the question, and that's absolutely all he said. Argh... Rather than engage in some protracted, nightmare declension (I don't have copies, we don't have copies, he don't have copies, it don't have copies), we decide to hit the eject button. We respond: "That still does not answer the question. I propose to presume that you mean that the Home Office refuses to release the questionnaire into the public domain. Here I am assuming that by 'we' you mean the Home Office, and that by 'do not have copies to give out' you mean, refuse to give copies out. If that is not the situation, then do let me know what the situation actually is."

That was Friday, it is now Tuesday, and the Home Office remains silent. We suppose we could always mail him asking if he's officially refusing to confirm that we can't have copies and see if he'd refuse to confirm that too, but life's too short.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/09/21/id_pilot_survey_doubts/


Basically limitations that have been pointed out to the Kashmir survey too.
1) Questions answered in a way that is then interpreted wrongly by a lot of people
2) Not enough samples, another problem that was suggested for the Kashmir poll
3) Only 19% of the area of Kashmir was sampled. That really cannot be used to gauge the feeling of the entire population of Kashmir :- 1 / 5 th of the people, yes, but then 48% of these were sampled from Jammu. Ridiculous.

Sameer
09 Sep 05,, 22:43
This is what happens when the local village idiot tries to understand statistics and sampling. :)

In sum India bad, Mori bad, Pakistan still good.

Hongkongfuey
10 Sep 05,, 00:07
This is what happens when the local village idiot tries to understand statistics and sampling. :)

In sum India bad, Mori bad, Pakistan still good.

Yes yes, if I'm the village idiot you're the phucking zit squeezing, belching, giggly little fart generating schoolkid with a shitstain developing around his anus each time he types an idiotic post bearing the hallmarks of a pre-pubescent moron suffering from OCD, that's been brought on by having just realized he's developed a pubic hair. :)

Gabru47
10 Sep 05,, 04:03
Off topic again but oh well. Hongkongfuey you wouldn't happen to be Terminator from Paktribune.com forums, would you? Either he plagarized a couple of your posts or your the same people.

Heres a record of his posts.

http://www.paktribune.com/forums/index.php?act=Search&nav=au&CODE=show&searchid=dfca48cafea227ea9b4bb6b2569e07c5&search_in=posts&result_type=posts&hl=&st=775

Gabru47
10 Sep 05,, 05:08
He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India


Quote:
Avebury said "the poll showed much had changed in Kashmir, but the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights should also be allowed to send rapporteurs there".
In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process




Don't have alot of time but I'll give my two cents. I don't think that text is conveying the idea that the poll was conducted by India, rather its saying that Kashmiri people are asking for democratic instiutions, even if it is organized and run by India.


Quote:
I was talking about the legal phenomenon known as the "chilling effect". An officier doesn't have to be standing next to the pollster with a trained rifle for its effects to come into effect. The fact that a person may feel that what he is saying may incriminate him or lead to his persecution might be enough for him to change or "chill" his beliefs.




Wouldn't you agree that there is coercion coming from the terrorists, Aryan? I don't think you have to search too long to find an article saying that someone's family has been murdered in Kashmir, usually brutally involving beheadings, rapes and all that good stuff a particular community is known the world over for, just for cooperating with the Indian government. Wouldnt you agree, Aryan? What do you call that, positive coercion?



The bit where Avebury talks about, "In an urgent plea for the democratic process, "even if conducted by India and opposed by some," Avebury said the poll revealed the "tendency for most Kashmiris to opt out of the political process", the democratic process he refers to here is to the "fair, but not free" elections, as described by the BBC.

I was quoting the part where you said "He also goes onto admit it's all conducted by India." Are you saying the MORI poll was conducted by India or something else was?


You don't have to search too long to find a NEUTRAL article saying with a high level of confidence that someone's family has been murdered in Kashmir, usually brutally involving tortured to death, systematic rapes, summary executions, just for being SUSPECTED of cooperating with the armed liberation outfits. Let me draw your attention to this list. Given the Indian Army's history of covering up crimes and trying to blame them on the insurgents, dont you think this is very hypocritical coming from you. Virtually EVERY neutral human rights agency with a creditable reputation has described the SYSTEMATIC rapes of Kashmiri women, not just a few rotten apples here and there, but the use of rapes to torture women suspected of being sympathetic to the insurgents, the disappearances of young men suspected of being insurgents, the torture of men and women, the list is endless of the crimes being committed in Kashmir.

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/index.htm
http://www.amnestyusa.org/women/doc...02569A500714D22
http://www.phrusa.org/research/torture/torcra.html
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2001/07/14/india167.htm
http://web.amnesty.org/library/Inde...COUNTRIES\INDIA
http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/kashmir/1996/

A very touching introduction in this one :-

http://web.amnesty.org/library/Inde...COUNTRIES\INDIA

Some more on the renegade militant secret police in Kashmir :-

http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/kashmi...7.htm#TopOfPage

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/defenders.htm
http://web.amnesty.org/802568F7005C...24004651F6?Open
http://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/kashmir/impunity.htm

One of your own even
http://www.india-seminar.com/2000/496/496%20report.htm

Further, your accusation that its the militants that do the killing of civilians isnt found when you look at the chronology of the killings in Kashmir.

Rapes, killings of civilians and torture were routinely carried out at the beginning of the 1990s by the Indian Army and its secret police, with impunity. The human rights organizations know it, the world knows it, you do not oddly enough. From what I can see the Indian Army is more savage and brutal when it comes to torture and raping of Kashmiris than the militants, so I wouldnt even try and accuse the militants of being worse than your Army and its associated secret police. In this sort of atmosphere, with all these documented records of proven cover ups, the ability to act with impunity, the lack of a judicial process, can you say that the Kashmiri people were not answering polling questions in fear of their lives considering you had a New Delhi based company doing the questioning?

You're really a pathetic excuse of a human being.


Firstly, you shouldn't tell people they are a pathetic excuse of a human being. Although when I think about it, I guess pathetic is actually subjective. So maybe I'm wrong, go ahead call me that. Sorry. Although I can't grasp the meaning of excuse of a human being, I assume it can't be a compliment if it was preceded by pathetic. Actually, when I think about it, what constitutes a compliment would probably be subjective as well, so I don't know.

All I was trying to point out to Aryan was Kashmiris are also getting coerced by the terrorists. If all those reports about the Indian armies atrocities in the early 90's are true, and I don't doubt they are(the world is filled to the brim with idiots me thinks!), then that is depressingly horrible. What I was thinking was that some people appear to be crashing oil tankers into a beach that has a raging fire on it, which is adding to an already large problem by taking one side of an issue. I was just pointing out that if Aryan believes Kashmiris are being coerced by the Indian government, than he should also say that the terrorists are coercing the Kashmiris too. Theres many reports on the abuses of the terrorists on the same sites you used, only I don't know why you didn't quote them. Actually I don't know Aryan's thoughts on the terrorists, so maybe I shouldn't even talk about what he thinks, as he hasn't responded yet. What is your reaction to the terrorists using scare tactics to make the Kashmiris afraid of cooperating with the Indian government?

Also I'm not sure if it was brought up in this thread, I'm positive that Sarmila Bose of George Washington University is the same Bose of Ananda Bazar Patrika. Infact I think she released her study on the same day that the USA gave access to previously restricted files concerning the USA's role in the 1971 genocide. Sort of surprising in a naive sort of way. I think she also wrote articles where she doesn't support India getting a permanent seat in the U.N. security council. Pretty interesting person. I'll try to find more info about her.

VayuSena
10 Sep 05,, 05:58
It's time to set the facts right on the Mori poll. That's the purpose of this thread, because it's been used time and time again by certain posters as some sort of bizarre "proof" that Kashmiris would want to join with India rather than Pakistan in plebiscite. First i'll set you up with an article about the MORI poll by an Indian paper, to give you an idea of who and what was behind the poll, and the possible motives and then i shall give you some expert analysis, courtesy of myself ;) I think you will find my analysis holds more water than that of the likes of Sameer and Indianguy4u.



Expert analysis by HongKongFuey
Hindus (Jammu), Buddhists (Leh), who have no affiliation to Pakistan think that ECONOMICALLY they would be better off joining with India (this is true, they probably would be). Muslims (Srinigar, the Valley), believe they would be better off joining Pakistan than India, ECONOMICALLY (which they probably wouldnt but they still prefer to join with Pakistan than India). The majority of the Kashmiri population is Muslim, hence the Valley would be more indicative of the true attitude of the majority of Kashmiris (as Kashmiris are a majority Muslim population after all). So hold the plebiscite, Pakistan in fact advocates free and fair plebiscite!!
Hmm...so by this logic, shouldn't Pakistan's population be doubled now...since there are more Muslims in India than in Pakistan and as you said, Muslims supposedly prefer to be part of Pakistan.

Hongkongfuey
10 Sep 05,, 16:33
Hmm...so by this logic, shouldn't Pakistan's population be doubled now...since there are more Muslims in India than in Pakistan and as you said, Muslims supposedly prefer to be part of Pakistan.

You try fitting another 200 million people in Pakistan.

Sameer
10 Sep 05,, 16:37
Yes yes, if I'm the village idiot you're the phucking zit squeezing, belching, giggly little fart generating schoolkid with a shitstain developing around his anus each time he types an idiotic post bearing the hallmarks of a pre-pubescent moron suffering from OCD, that's been brought on by having just realized he's developed a pubic hair. :)


In sum Mori dumb, people who support it dumb, a pro stats agency= dumb, HK and Pakistan good.

:biggrin:

Sameer
10 Sep 05,, 16:57
You try fitting another 200 million people in Pakistan.


You can fit another billion people in Pakistan, fitting peoplein a certain land space is surey possible. The Bangladeshis did not want to be part of it and most Kashmiris prefer to be Indian while they probably prefer being independent out of all the said options. The fact that more and more Kashmiris are muttering independence rather than fusion with Pakistan speaks volumes about Muslim brotherhood. Afterall Muslim brotherhood does not hold well when Balochis wish to seperate and Shias get killed during friday prayers.


In other news, i was going to post a longer post explaining why the MORI poll is statistically significant but that would only waste my time and at the end of th day my previous post says it all, only realistic goals will be acheaved in terms of peace, not Jehadi village idiot wet dreams.

Ray
10 Sep 05,, 19:28
Aryan,

My apologies.

I did not know you were mentioning the Rat Temple of Gujerat, Pakistan!

Jolly nice to her of that, though a trifle sad what's going on there!

Gabru47
10 Sep 05,, 20:15
Honkongfuey are you Terminator from the paktribune.com forums?

Hongkongfuey
10 Sep 05,, 20:46
Honkongfuey are you Terminator from the paktribune.com forums?

I am the ghost of christmas eve

Gabru47
10 Sep 05,, 20:57
I am the ghost of christmas eve

Please take no offence at what I say. You very well could be the ghost of christmas eve, and by disagreeing with you I am not trying to say you aren't one, but I don't believe in ghosts you see. Maybe you are a ghost or maybe thats just some image you have of yourself in your mind. Anyway, I don't think your coy response answered the question. Are you Terminator from paktribune.com? A simple yes or no would be appreciated.

Sameer
10 Sep 05,, 21:16
I am the ghost of christmas eve

Christmas eve or Chinese new year?
:biggrin: