Syria warns Israel of retaliation

[Ironduke]

Syria warns Israel of retaliation

Syria and Israel are still trading accusations and threats a week after an Israeli strike on a target outside Damascus.

The attack was the first of its kind in 30 years.

Syria then submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council condemning the strike and calling on the Council to help prevent further Israeli attacks.

But the resolution still does not have the backing of a majority of Council members.

Now Syria has said that if Israel strikes again it will retaliate.
If Syria comes under renewed Israeli attack there will be retaliation.

This is what Boushra Kanafani, a spokeswoman for the Syrian foreign ministry, said here in Damascus.

She added that her country had the right to use all means at its disposal, to exercise its right to self-defence if it was attacked again.

She did not elaborate on what the means were.

Target dispute

Israeli reaction was quick. An Israeli spokesperson has already said that countries like Syria which support terrorist organisations carrying out attacks against Israeli civilians are legitimate targets.

Israel claims that the target of the Israeli strike on Sunday was a training camp for radical Palestinian militants.

Syria maintains it was a civilian area but it has so far not allowed the media to visit the site.

Asked why Syria had sealed off the area of the strike, Mrs Kanafani simply replied there was no reason to put Syria's credibility under scrutiny.

In other words, if Syria said the target was a civilian site, the world just had to believe it.

Meanwhile in Lebanon, Hezbollah's secretary general, Syyed Hassan Nasrallah, has warned that his guerrilla movement will retaliate if Israel conducts more strikes on Syria and Lebanon.

Hezbollah is backed by Syria and has often been used by Damascus to put pressure on Israel.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3183788.stm

[TopHatter]

When the hell is Syria going to learn? The Israelis are not like the pre-9/11 United States, who liked to "send messages". The Israelis send the message whether somone is listening or not and they make damn sure that the message is a loud and clear billboard.

[Officer of Engineers]

Syria doesn't have a choice. Israel is the power in the region. Syria knows it can't win but it can fight and she's letting Israel know that it's going to be bloody and expensive. It's a bluff but that's the only hand Syria has.

[bigross86]

Israel can't possibly invade Syria by herself. Worst she could do is harass Syria with air strikes and the such. Air never wins the war, it's the ground troops.

[TopHatter]

Hm, now that would be an interesting scenario to wargame out. An Israeli invasion of Syria. Setting aside political considerations, how do you think such an invasion would go?
What do you think Ben and Colonel?

[bigross86]

Extremely hard to tell. Israel has 186,500 Regular Forces and 445,000 Reserve Forces, for a total of 631,500 soldiers. Indeed a credible force, but not all of those are fighters, and many of those are people in their late 30s early 40s.

Syria has 380,000 Regular Forces and 132,500 Reserve Forces for a total of 512,500 soldiers. Less than Israel, but more regular soldiers. Plus, an invasion would immediately bring support from other Arab countries.

Israel has 3,930 MBT's and 8,000 APC/IFV's as opposed to Syria's 3,700 MBT's and 5,060 APC/IFV's. Israel's 538 airplanes would overwhelm Syria's 490 airplanes, due to better training on the Israeli side and and faster turn around time. Plus, air supremacy will help the grouns battle.

Syria outnumbers Israel's 1348 cannons with 2,600 of her own. Israel and Syria are fairly matched in the helicopter area, with Israel and Syria having 239 and 225, respectively.

Allies will also come into play. The US is obviously the key player in any conflict. With US aid, victory is almost assured. However, other Arab countries such as Iran and Lebanon could come to the aid of Syria with Iran's 207 airplanes, 1,700 MBT's, 1,570 APC/IFV's, 2,700 cannons, 520,000 Regular Forces, 350,000 Reserve Forces and 345 helicopters.

One also has to consider objectives. Why is Israel invading? What is she trying to reach? Where is she trying to get to? What does she plan to accomplish? If all she wants to do is get rid of Assad, a surprise attack by IAF jets on the palace will do it. Unlike Iraq, there will be no build-up before hand. Strategic surprise would be useful, but not necessary. A little bit of maskirovka wouldn't hurt. SpecOps forces behind enemy lines could wreak havoc.

That's just the basics.. I'm sure the Colonel, Snipe, ZFBpxcar and many others can contribute.

[ZFBoxcar]

Syria's army is good for little more than putting down a revolution and occupying Lebanon. The Syrian Air Force is crap, their MBTs are way older and less advanced than Israels, and I doubt their training is up to IDF standards (although I suppose they could somehow pull off a ground victory...if the IAF wasnt prepared to smash them from above). But this war wont happen because Assad is probably better than anyone who might replace him, and if an Israeli Military Commision replaces him, thats one big ass occupation for a small country...and it wont be fun for anyone.

[Praxus]

Soldiers in the Syrian army have so much less training then the Israeli army it is not even funny.

Israel could have a quick conventional victory, the problem is the suicide nuts that will come up to their troops and blow themselves apart.

Syria outnumbers Israel's 1348 cannons with 2,600 of her own.

Israel has a few hundred cannons that can fire 7-9 rounds per minute.

[TopHatter]

Hmmm...that sounds vaguely familiar for some reason

[Officer of Engineers]

As I stated before, I ain't qualified to think in terms of div, let alone corps lvl ops.

Syrian bdes only chance against the superior Israeli manouver units are set piece battles. Essentially, the Syrians would be looking towards Medina Ridge and 73 Eastings as the models against the Israelis.

I have absolutely no confidence that the IsAF could take out a Syrian division. They don't have the mass. The IsAF could do surgical. They can't do sledge hammer. And whenever you're talking div, you're talking sledge hammer. The IsAF would run out of bombs long before they run out of targets.

This would leave the Syrian bde in attempting to use minefields to channel the Israelis into KZs. If the Israelis manage to breach these obstacles, the Syrians would try to channel the Israelis through meeting engagements, all in an attempt to get the Israelis into those KZs.

If the Syrians could manage them, then they would start raining steel down onto the Israelis.

The Israelis would try to fix the Syrian bde in place would trying to flank. They wouldn't want to engage the single bns but to attack the bde HQ. What'll you have is individual Israeli tank coys just shooting up Syrian positions while a whole bn punch to the rear.

Who would win? Paper wise, it would be the Israelis. They have the money and the training. However, if the Syrians could have a Zuhkov (not likely), then it's conceivable, that the Israelis would be mince meat.

I can certainly wargame to victory on the Syrian side using JANUS. Real life is a whole different matter.

[bigross86]

Israel has a few hundred cannons that can fire 7-9 rounds per minute.

It's more like a few dozen, and those are almost all experimantal or fielded in very small numbers. The "Rochev" and "Doher" are just two of the names I remember. The gist of both of them is they are converted M-48/M-60 Patton's which carry a drum of artillery very much like a revolver pistol. Problem is the reloading and relatively short range.

[ChrisF202]

Originally posted by bigross86
It's more like a few dozen, and those are almost all experimantal or fielded in very small numbers. The "Rochev" and "Doher" are just two of the names I remember. The gist of both of them is they are converted M-48/M-60 Patton's which carry a drum of artillery very much like a revolver pistol. Problem is the reloading and relatively short range.

Could they hit Syrian positions from the Golan Heights?

[bigross86]

I think they could, but positions close to the border would almost defienetely be taken out by the Air Force's fast movers for general strikes and choppers for precision, and by the large amounts of MBT's and IFV's surging forward.