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Bigfella
26 Jan 15,, 01:00
When Tony Abbott came to power last year, one of the first things he did was to re-institute a system of Imperial honours (knights, dames, sirs etc) abandoned a generation ago. The decision was taken without consulting his colleagues & was seen as odd even in conservative circles (in the wider community amazement was a better characterization). Abbott is a staunch monarchist & anglophile who was born in England & then returned there to go to University.

Australia day is when Australia traditionally hands out its various honours (we still kept some, just minus the old style titles). Today we awoke to discover that the first two people to receive Knighthoods were a distinguished retired military officer....and Prince Philip:eek::eek::eek:. Yes, the Queen's hubby. The bloke who married our future Monarch. A man who not only does not need an award from us, but who I suspect is as puzzled as the rest of us. There are 23 million Australians, and our PM gives a knighthood to Prince Philip. Guess the rest of us just aren't worthy. :rolleyes:

The only good news here is that the PM is already in political trouble, This will make it worse.

BTW, this story is from the Murdoch press, whose support for the PM has been little short of fanatical (except when they deem him insufficiently right wing). If this is how your friends view what you do.....



AUSTRALIA’S newest knight is the same person who once asked an Aboriginal businessman: “Do you still throw spears at each other?”

The Duke of Edinburgh, Prince Philip, was named a Knight of the Order of Australia alongside former Defence Force chief Angus Houston on Tuesday.

But it is the appointment of His Royal Highness that has some Aussies scratching their heads and remembering his most famous gaffe.

A jocular Duke made the comment in 2002 on a visit to the Aboriginal Cultural Park in Queensland with the Queen while speaking with businessman William Brim.

“No, we don’t do that anymore,” Mr Brim replied. He later said it was “quite funny” but he was “rather surprised he said it”.

Buckingham Palace was left to clean up the mess. It released a statement saying the comments were “lighthearted” and “there was no offense intended”.

The Prime Minister, who made the announcement via a statement, said the Queen accepted his recommendation that the pair be awarded Australia’s highest honour.

Mr Abbott said Prince Philip was receiving the honour to recognise his contribution to Australia over the course of the Queen’s 62-year reign.

“Prince Philip’s long life of service and dedication should be honoured by Australia,” Mr Abbott said.

“For three quarters of a century, Prince Philip has served the Crown, and the wider Commonwealth.

Is Prince Philip the right choice for a knighthood? Leave a comment below

“He has served Australia with distinction and is patron of over 800 organisations.” He said the The Duke of Edinburgh’s Award in Australia had “supported the development of young Australians for more than fifty years”.

But the PM’s choice for a knighthood hasn’t gone down well with everyone.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten offered broad support for the announcement, describing Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston’s knighthood as an ‘outstanding’ decision, but questioned the choice of Prince Philip.

“Prince Phillip has been very distinguished ever since he married the young Queen. He’s had six decades of public service,” he said.

“My reservations are not about him, I just think he already has a lot of knighthoods and awards. I just wonder if they couldn’t have picked someone who is Australian in character and activity.

“I don’t get the priority the government had in nominating him.

“It’s a time warp where we’re giving knighthoods to English royalty.”

Australian Republican Movement chairman Geoff Gallop said it was bad enough that Tony Abbott reintroduced knighthoods, a move even former prime minister John Howard opposed.

That was totally inappropriate when Australia had its own well-run honours system, he said.

“Now to add to that, on Australia Day to nominate Prince Philip as a knight of Australia, it’s just ludicrous,” he told ABC radio.

“It indicates how we have this dual system. The cultural cringe is back. Paying due obeisance to British.

Australia Day 2015: Prince Philip, Angus Houston our newest knights (http://www.news.com.au/national/australia-day-2015-prince-philip-angus-houston-our-newest-knights/story-fncynjr2-1227196591312)

*Crap! can a Mod fix the title for me - the stupidity of this has robbed me of the ability to spell.

Skywatcher
26 Jan 15,, 14:57
Well, Prince Phillip has spent decades providing plenty of laughs to children and adults not only in Australia, but around the world.

Double Edge
26 Jan 15,, 15:18
The only good news here is that the PM is already in political trouble, This will make it worse.
Then he's already thinking about his legacy :)

Parihaka
26 Jan 15,, 19:56
*Crap! can a Mod fix the title for me - the stupidity of this has robbed me of the ability to spell.

I was tempted to put "knits Prince Phillip" but I realise I couldn't outdo the original story in absurdity :)

Bigfella
26 Jan 15,, 23:20
It does have a certain pythonesque quality to it.

Bigfella
26 Jan 15,, 23:36
Then he's already thinking about his legacy :)

If he keeps up like this he may be tending to it sooner than he thinks.

From very early on in Abbott's PMship (which is still only 18 months old) there were people on the left telling themselves this would be a 1 term government. The last 1 term Federal government happened during the Great Depression, and this one has a healthy majority, so it was more wishful thinking than anything else. There were also those convincing themselves that his party would have to replace him at some point. However, the previous government did that twice in 2 terms and was seen as 'chaotic' as a result. So that also seemed like wishful thinking.

From my POV all of that still is wishful thinking, but yesterday was the first time I have allowed myself to think it might happen. It isn't that this will turn a bunch of voters against the government - it won't. What it will do is contribute to the impression that this government is 'out of touch'. It will also distract the government from selling its message, something it has publically pledged itself to do after a very poor first year in power (only first term government in living memory to fall behind in the polls almost immediately & stay there). The other problem is that it reinforces the impression among MPs in his own party that he is out of touch with them. Just about the only MP who has applauded the decision is retiring at the next election. Others have publically & privately expressed incredulity or just gone the 'no comment'.

The best word to describe the general reaction to this is 'ridicule'

This is a serious lapse of judgement.

Double Edge
27 Jan 15,, 01:00
Replace the PM because of an award seems a bit harsh.

Bigfella
27 Jan 15,, 01:54
Replace the PM because of an award seems a bit harsh.

I agree, but that won't be the reason.

Abbott has been unpopular since the beginning. As I mentioned, his popularity & that of his government slipped below the opposition within a few months of taking power. Apparently this hasn't happened to a first term government since polling began. There have been a seemingly endless succession of missteps, bad ideas & backflips. Abbott has made a number of questionable decisions & has been terrible at explaining them. There has been increasing friction within the government at his somewhat domineering style & the alleged accrual of power by his chief advisor (an unelected figure).

Toward the end of last year it seemed that he government was getting the message. Abbott publically acknowledged mistakes had been made & committed to 'removing a few barnacles' (unpopular policies) and doing a better job of communicating. In the few months since then - usually a quiet time politically - a series of policy mistakes have been made. As I said, the problem with this one is that it looks bizarre & stupid to most voters (at best), and it pisses off government MPs because they weren't consulted.

This won't cause him to be replaced. I don't actually think he will be before the next election, but this creates a further problem for a government that is already in deep trouble. if they manage to turn things around, as I expect them to, this will end up as yet another 'what was Tony thinking' things. If they fall over at the next poll or, even more unlikely, feel they have to replace Abbott, this will be seen as a highly symbolic moment.

Bigfella
27 Jan 15,, 04:14
DE,

This is the sort of thing I mean:


Liberal backbenchers are considering calling a meeting to discuss the "direction of the team", with speculation rife about Prime Minister Tony Abbott's leadership following his decision to make Prince Philip a knight.

One MP, who did not want to be named, said there were "serious and real" discussions about getting the backbench together over coming weeks. The MP likened the move to cricket, saying if the captain made as many bad picks as Mr Abbott had, "you could expect the players to want to call a meeting to discuss the direction of the team".

The MP said the decision to knight Prince Philip, in an apparent violation of Mr Abbott's own pledge that knights and dames would be for pre-eminent Australians, was a "total disaster".

"He's doing whatever the hell he wants in a self-indulgent fashion and everyone is deeply embarrassed," the MP said.

"Liberals are turning on Tony Abbott. There's a changing climate, things are very serious, they're progressing and progressing very fast."

The MP said Foreign Minister Julie Bishop was a likely option to replace Mr Abbott but other candidates are possible in the current climate. Mr Abbott is not facing the imminent threat of a challenge.

Angry Liberal backbenchers consider meeting after Tony Abbott's decision to make Prince Philip a knight (http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/angry-liberal-backbenchers-consider-meeting-after-tony-abbotts-decision-to-make-prince-philip-a-knight-20150127-12yr5d.html)

They aren't ready to dump him yet, but another 6-10 months like this & they will be.

Monash
28 Jan 15,, 12:30
I agree, but that won't be the reason.

There have been a seemingly endless succession of missteps, bad ideas & backflips. Abbott has made a number of questionable decisions & has been terrible at explaining them. There has been increasing friction within the government at his somewhat domineering style & the alleged accrual of power by his chief advisor (an unelected figure).

In this Abbot reminds me a lot of Kevin Rudd - in the context of them both being absolute control freaks. No idea, policy or announcement gets approved without going through his office first. Constant micro management of every political issue by the PM's office and no autonomy for the his ministers or their own political and ministerial advisers with all communication being one way i.e. from him to them. I suspect it will end the same way to - with his Ministers and the party room, regardless of faction deciding they can't work with him anymore.

Bigfella
01 Feb 15,, 00:34
I told you this was serious. :biggrin:


Mr Abbott's grip on power suffered a series of devastating body blows on Saturday, but things got worse late in the evening when Jane Prentice, a Queensland-based federal Liberal National backbencher, warned on live TV that Mr Abbott could face a leadership challenge if he did not nail a critical address to the National Press Club on Monday.


Federal Attorney-General George Brandis conceded on Sky News that Mr Abbott's announcement of a knighthood for Prince Philip at the start of the campaign's final week was a distraction for the Newman government and cost the Premier.

Federal Liberal MP warns on live TV that Tony Abbott could face a leadership challenge (http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-liberal-mp-warns-on-live-tv-that-tony-abbott-could-face-a-leadership-challenge-20150131-132ybs.html)



Tony Abbott's leadership has suffered a series of devastating body blows, with a former cabinet minister colleague weighing a leadership tilt, Queensland state government counterparts suffering an electoral bloodbath and a disastrous new poll showing he trails 57-43 in the two-party-preferred vote

Tony Abbott reels from triple blow: Mal Brough, Queensland and new poll heap pressure on PM (http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-reels-from-triple-blow-mal-brough-queensland-and-new-poll-heap-pressure-on-pm-20150131-132x5u.html)


Tony Abbott has a new title and it sure ain't a knighthood. He is now the Liberal Party's wrecking ball, leaving a trail of destruction across the nation.

After helping to seal Denis Napthine's fate as the leader of Victoria's first one-term government in more than half a century, the Prime Minister has helped Campbell Newman make even more inglorious history.

Three years ago, Newman became the first person to become a premier without having spent a single day in the Parliament. Now he has lost his seat, and could be the first state or national leader to do so while his party retains power.


Or, even more damning, the party that won 75 to Labor's seven seats in 2012 is facing the prospect of defeat. For this, Newman must carry the overwhelming responsibility, but the Abbott factor cannot be denied.

Whether it was the difference between Newman hanging on to his seat is arguable. What is beyond question is this: the Liberal National Party's shocking showing will dramatically ramp up the anxiety of the Abbott backbench and the pressure on his leadership.

If Abbott's Queensland colleagues were feral before the Queensland vote, they will be even more inclined to rash action after it.

Back in November, after the Coalition was despatched in Victoria, Abbott's spinners like Scott Morrison said federal factors had nothing to do with it, and pointed to how well Newman was doing in Queensland as evidence.

The Victorian campaign was topped and tailed by reminders of Abbott's failures to keep to his election commitments, from the increase in fuel excise to the cuts to ABC and SBS funding.

There were a couple of fleeting appearances by the Prime Minister in the campaign, including the hug he gave Napthine that Labor MPs dubbed the "kiss of death", and the "barnacle debacle" of mixed messages over whether another unpopular budget measure, the GP co-payment, would be scrapped.

While Abbott acted on advice to stay well clear of Queensland, this campaign was similarly replete with reminders of the federal Coalition's unpopularity, from another backdown on Medicare that did not solve the co-payment problem, to the Prince Philip knighthood fiasco, which I suspect will be remembered as the most spectacular own goal by a prime minister ever.


Tony Abbott becoming Liberal wrecking ball (http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/tony-abbott-becoming-liberal-wrecking-ball-20150131-132vul.html)

....and the word of the week is 'unprecedented'.

At the start of the week we had the 'Sir Prince Philip' mess.

Then we had increasingly loud whispers about leadership from within the party.

Yesterday was the Queensland election. A first term Liberal/National government that held 73 seats in an 89 seat Parliament has most likely lost government to a Labor opposition that held 9. Yes, 9. It was a 13% swing statewide & as big as 24% in some seats - against a first term government. Nothing like this has happened in Australian politics in my memory.

To top it all off, a 4th term Labor government in Sth Australia that picked up a Liberal seat in a byelection a few months back almost picked up another safe Liberal seat on the weekend. Oh, and there is another first term state Liberal government going to the polls on march 28 (they are a better chance to hold for local reasons, but nothing is certain now).

Now we have MPs openly talking about the removal of a first term PM who romped to power only 18 months ago. Like I said, unprecedented.

Obviously this isn't all because of one stupid decision, but as I pointed out earlier, the stupid decision is symbolic of a raft of other stupid & unpopular decisions all boiled down into one easy to understand piece of colossal dumbness. Perhaps it added 1% or less to the swing in QLD, but that might have been enough to push out a government.

There is a sense of panic in the Government. I still don't think they will remove Abbott, but I have gone from certain to almost on the fence in 1 week. I still think they can turn things around by the next election, but time is running low. If they are still looking this bad in the polls by about November I'm not convinced the ycan save themselves. Still, a long way off.

Chunder
01 Feb 15,, 09:25
There isn't anything wrong with their message, it is quite sellable... it's the people selling it that are the problem. To change the leadership for the necessity of saving the party, they must actually change it to the people that can perform. Don't forget that Abbott only won selection by one vote. Im not convinced that the party has any sort of real difference to that of the Labor party with regards to internal politics as opposed to the right decisions. In such case... they will probably stick with Abbott.

Ill still be voting for the sex party however.

Bigfella
01 Feb 15,, 12:01
Disagree about the message Chunder. That is a lot of the problem. People don't feel that they signed up for the sort of ideological checklist these guys (and it is basically a boys club) are trying to push. it is one thing to say that we need to make cuts, balance the budget etc. People get that. The problem is that it is so transparently targeting the people who can afford it least. There is no sense that the burden is being shared. High income earners pay a bit more tax for a couple of years, low income earners get cuts to services or increased costs that will likely be long term.

They came in thinking they had a mandate for a bunch of stuff they have always wanted to do but knew no one would wear, so the yare cloaking it all under 'save the budget'. That worked for Howard 2 decades ago, but people are wiser & less tolerant toward that sort of thing now. Newman copped it for the same reason. perhaps people are finally punishing governments for lying while in opposition. Lets hope so.

Chunder
01 Feb 15,, 14:40
I don't think your reading me correctly.

If the Liberals make their issue a budget in crisis then it is the issue which ultimately they will be judged.

They might be ideological or they might be legit, but its the critical mass which breaks it.

You need performers that can sell that.

Everyone in defence knows that ASC is a political football, whoose situation arises as much from politics as from incompetence.
Most doctors over 60 will say that Medicare is an absolute farce which is detrimental to medical practice.

The others I know little about. But the libs can't sell those basic points.

Did you know my injections cost $1400 a fortnight?
And these people complain about making a gp co-payment?! Maybe they should just shut the hell up and be grateful they aint like me wishing to cut my hands and feet off with an axe and pay the pissant doctors fee.

Probably the same ones that get raped by their state governments on every other matter the federal government doesn't tax you for. In plain speak, those easily riled with the thought of having to pay ever more.

Just a thought :) But yes, punishing parties for the lies they sold in opposition is always a good operating measure for preferencing :)

Monash
02 Feb 15,, 07:51
Part of the problem (from the Liberals perspective) may be that a significant % of the electorate, if not a majority are simply not right wing enough for the doctrinaire "Dries" who dominate the Liberal Party Rooms these days. As a result at both the State and Federal level they seem to start office under the somewhat false belief that their new mandate is actually a 'go' signal or them to proceed full steam ahead with the classic wish list of conservative social and economic policies only to immediately start alienating the electorate when they do so. Result - the harder and faster they push forward the more quickly they loose traction... and support. Amazingly they always seem surprised when this happens? As for the Greens and the far left of the Labour Party the same thing applies, or would rather if the right wing of Labour ever gave them a chance to initiate their respective policy wish lists.

Obviously the people of Australia don't know whats good for them, dam their middle-of-the-road worldviews.

Bigfella
03 Feb 15,, 09:08
Part of the problem (from the Liberals perspective) may be that a significant % of the electorate, if not a majority are simply not right wing enough for the doctrinaire "Dries" who dominate the Liberal Party Rooms these days. As a result at both the State and Federal level they seem to start office under the somewhat false belief that their new mandate is actually a 'go' signal or them to proceed full steam ahead with the classic wish list of conservative social and economic policies only to immediately start alienating the electorate when they do so. Result - the harder and faster they push forward the more quickly they loose traction... and support. Amazingly they always seem surprised when this happens? As for the Greens and the far left of the Labour Party the same thing applies, or would rather if the right wing of Labour ever gave them a chance to initiate their respective policy wish lists.

Obviously the people of Australia don't know whats good for them, dam their middle-of-the-road worldviews.

I think this nails it nicely. The Libs have been moving to the right for 30 years, but never so sharply as under Howard. The change is structural. The new leaders of the party are people who came up worshipping Thatcher - some of them doing so at English universities. The dominant faction in the Liberal Party is well to the right of mainstream. They keep thinking they can push through ideological wishlists dressed up as 'reform'. Joe Hockey's 'age of entitlement' speech was fawned over by the right wing commentariat, but fell on fallow ground in the real world. Increasingly the Libs are blaming voters for not liking their vision rather than re-assessing the vision. Abbott has made this even worse with his own personal quirks. Had the ALP not torn itself to shreds Federally the Libs would still be watching. If the ALP ever gets around to developing a genuine narrative They might be dangerous.

Parihaka
04 Feb 15,, 18:24
Julia Gillard Rushed To Hospital After Overdosing On Schadenfreude. | SBS Comedy (http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2015/02/04/julia-gillard-rushed-hospital-after-overdosing-schadenfreude)

Bigfella
04 Feb 15,, 19:42
Saw that yesterday. Got a lot of laughs.

Chunder
07 Feb 15,, 04:36
Got a phone call from Newspoll today, sponsored by Australian.

If you bet, and think Turnbull will win, if he stands for a contender, put your money on him now before the newspoll gets released on Monday as his odds will 'shorten' (lol couldn't resist), a few of the questions were loaded in favour of Turnbull.


Likewise don't bet on Abbott till those results get released.

InExile
07 Feb 15,, 08:53
I think this nails it nicely. The Libs have been moving to the right for 30 years, but never so sharply as under Howard. The change is structural. The new leaders of the party are people who came up worshipping Thatcher - some of them doing so at English universities.

That does appear to be the case across the Anglosphere; the current Conservatives in Canada are a lot more right wing than the Progressive Conservatives of the 80s, definitely more right wing than the general populace, but are still able to win elections with little over 30% of the vote, as the centre left vote splits between 3-4 parties. That doesn't seem to be the case in Australia though, the Liberals probably have a smaller margin for error if they hope to get re-elected.

Samuels creek
08 Feb 15,, 02:19
When you think about what was done at Marlinga ,the British involvement in the 1975 coup, this is quite a disgusting moment in Australian history.

Chunder
08 Feb 15,, 09:43
When you think about what was done at Marlinga ,the British involvement in the 1975 coup, this is quite a disgusting moment in Australian history.

Are you a Troll, or just a Troglodyte receiving monitored info bytes from some service not even someone as dumb as Sarah Hanson-Young would subscribe to?

Bigfella
08 Feb 15,, 10:58
Are you a Troll, or just a Troglodyte receiving monitored info bytes from some service not even someone as dumb as Sarah Hanson-Young would subscribe to?

He's both. A waste of space. He doesn't even contribute often enough to be a decent chew toy. Just a waste of good oxygen somewhere.

Bigfella
08 Feb 15,, 11:09
OK, for those playing at home, here is the state of play.

Last week several MPs called for a spill motion. This means that the entire parliamentary Liberal party (101 members in all) gathers in Canberra for a secret ballot on whether or not the leadership of the party should be declared open & put to a vote. PM Abbott does not want this to happen. Theoretically the Cabinet votes with the PM, so that should be 32 of the 52 votes needed to kill the motion. The other 20 shouldn't be hard to find. However, this is a secret ballot.

The spill was supposed to take place Tuesday. This was to allow MPs to fly in from all over Australia, discuss things among themselves & then vote (Parliament isn't sitting, so everyone is out of town). However, in a surprise move today Abbott moved the vote forward to Monday morning. A clear sign of weakness. Worse, someone clearly leaked this to his likely challenger, because shorty before the announcement he gave fulsome praise to the decision to vote Tuesday.

This latest act of desperation may have sealed Abbott's fate. I figured enough people would be reluctant to knife him so early in his term that they would step back from the edge. Now I think they will sense weakness & knife him.

What is likely to happen? The vote is at 9am. My bet is that there is a 'yes' vote for the spill. Then anyone can nominate for leader. Abbott will nominate. So will Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull - the man Abbott beat by 1 vote to get the leadership in 2009. It is possible that Abbott's deputy Julie Bishop will also nominate, though it is more likely she will go for the Deputy job - a role she has held since 2007. My bet is Turnbull wins with Bishop as his Deputy.

There is a slim chance the spill motion won't get up, but if it does Abbott is dead. He knows it. if he does survive the spill motion my bet is that we are back here in 6-8 months. He won't make it to the next election.

Chunder
08 Feb 15,, 14:30
Unless Hockey goes.

If Abbott goes, Hockey still has to go. I can't see one without the other. Abbott is a script bloke, Hockey is tasked with selling that script. AS a treasurer I don't believe Hockey has got the capacity to sell and must be dead in the water. I may be bias, but I've often thought the guy has either got foot in mouth, or just sells stuff using a stupid method. Following the logic through, since he can't make the call to replace Hockey, then he (Abbott) probably does need to go? The Defmin got replaced for much less, and anyone that knows about ASC, wouldn't trust them to build a canoe!

Labor would be given the best gift it needs in opposition if the libs don't get it right, a good sort of comeuppance.

I just feel rather sorry for all those departments that suffer one term governments... It really isn't good, especially some of the departments.

Samuels creek
08 Feb 15,, 14:35
Are you a Troll, or just a Troglodyte receiving monitored info bytes from some service not even someone as dumb as Sarah Hanson-Young would subscribe to?

What has Sarah Hanson Young got to do with this? Thats quite bigoted throwing shit at other people because you can't face your own history. Talk about trolling. Hypocrite.

You tell me what happened at Marlinga and I'll reconsider how mature you are.

Officer of Engineers
08 Feb 15,, 14:49
You tell me what happened at Marlinga and I'll reconsider how mature you are.It tells me how stupid you are. I goolge "Marlinga coup" and found nothing. Google ain't perfect but when even google don't know what you're talking about ... well, you're reaching into the toilet.

Bigfella
08 Feb 15,, 19:36
What has Sarah Hanson Young got to do with this? Thats quite bigoted throwing shit at other people because you can't face your own history. Talk about trolling. Hypocrite.

You tell me what happened at Marlinga and I'll reconsider how mature you are.

Just fuck off & leave the rest of us adults to talk amongst ourselves.

Bigfella
08 Feb 15,, 19:45
Unless Hockey goes.

If Abbott goes, Hockey still has to go. I can't see one without the other. Abbott is a script bloke, Hockey is tasked with selling that script. AS a treasurer I don't believe Hockey has got the capacity to sell and must be dead in the water. I may be bias, but I've often thought the guy has either got foot in mouth, or just sells stuff using a stupid method. Following the logic through, since he can't make the call to replace Hockey, then he (Abbott) probably does need to go? The Defmin got replaced for much less, and anyone that knows about ASC, wouldn't trust them to build a canoe!

Labor would be given the best gift it needs in opposition if the libs don't get it right, a good sort of comeuppance.

I just feel rather sorry for all those departments that suffer one term governments... It really isn't good, especially some of the departments.

Hockey isn't the problem, though he is an unusually crap treasurer. Peta Credlin (the lady running the PM's office for those at home) isn't the problem either. A reshuffle would literally be deck chairs on the Titanic. The problem is the organ grinder, not the monkeys. The public know that & so do the Libs. Just a question of how long it takes the party to catch up to where the public already is.

Double Edge
09 Feb 15,, 05:59
Obviously the people of Australia don't know whats good for them, dam their middle-of-the-road worldviews.
This describes the lot of people everywhere doesn't it. Caught in a pincer between ideological extremes and having to push back. Fail to and its bad times ahead.

Bigfella
09 Feb 15,, 08:16
Today's update:

The vote was 61-39 against the spill motion. Abbott remains PM for now. He will probably be safe until the budget is delivered in a few months & perhaps a while longer. However, the problems here are multiple.

The biggest one is that Abbott remains unpopular. A poll released this morning puts the government 14% down. It is consistent with other polls. Abbott's personal popularity is somewhere near the lowest recorded by a first term PM since serious polling began 40 years ago. he may improve things a bit, but it looks very much like a public that has never really liked him has turned decisively. Past evidence suggests that at this point voters simply stop listening to a leader & wait for the first chance to club them.

The other issue is that this will embolden potential rivals. This situation wasn't driven by an ambitious rival, but a grass roots backbench result. The ambitious rival (Malcolm Turnbull) has been uncharacteristically restrained and played his hand well. Much of the behind the scenes work has been done by Arthur Sinodinos, a former chief of staff to Liberal senior statesman John Howard. He was supposed to be finance minister but had to step down doe to corruption allegations (as yet unproven). He is not bound by notional Cabinet loyalty. He & Turnbull and their allies can now spend the coming months organizing their next challenge. This is how Abbott defeated Turnbull in 2009.

I will be shocked if Abbott is PM by Christmas.

Monash
09 Feb 15,, 08:32
And its only going to get worse in the short term. The NSW election is in a few weeks time so he has to decide whether or not to play a significant role (that's assuming the NSW Libs even ask, which is an open question at the moment) then after that there's the 2015 budget which had to be promulgated in the face of an unfriendly Senate and with many of last years proposed budget measures still swinging in the wind as unfinished business. All after promising 'a fresh start' only 6 weeks ago. Karma is a bitch.

Bigfella
09 Feb 15,, 08:51
And its only going to get worse in the short term. The NSW election is in a few weeks time so he has to decide whether or not to play a significant role (that's assuming the NSW Libs even ask, which is an open question at the moment) then after that there's the 2015 budget which had to be promulgated in the face of an unfriendly Senate and with many of last years proposed budget measures still swinging in the wind as unfinished business. All after promising 'a fresh start' only 6 weeks ago. Karma is a bitch.

NSW Premier Baird has said he will invite Abbott to campaign. I honestly don't think that even Abbott can sink Baird. The ALP there has been so corrupt & incompetent that they are hard to elect. Baird is also moderate & well liked. He might lose some skin, but I think he'll keep his job.

The budget is a nightmare. Even a highly competent treasurer would struggle with the current circumstances. We have Joe Hockey. They will patch something together, but it will involve a deficit much bigger than promised and policies most of the party will hate. The Senate cross benchers will be in no mood to be helpful. They weren't helpful against a new government with a big majority when they were novices. Now they have a weak government and a weak PM and they have had a year to get up to speed. The immigration minister effectively forcing them to vote for a measure they disliked by threatening not to release children from detention will cost the Government dear - especially as the kids have not been released yet.

In short, they need to produce a budget they don't agree with & can't afford and get it through a Senate that hates their guts. If they can do it Abbott might actually survive. Not putting money on it.

Monash
09 Feb 15,, 09:10
NSW Premier Baird has said he will invite Abbott to campaign. I honestly don't think that even Abbott can sink Baird. The ALP there has been so corrupt & incompetent that they are hard to elect. Baird is also moderate & well liked. He might lose some skin, but I think he'll keep his job.[QUOTE]

Agreed, after their (rightly deserved) disastrous loss last election State ALP strategists acknowledged that it would be at least two, possibly three elections before the people of NSW trusted the Labour party enough to put them back in office. Just increasing the number of seats they hold to a respectable number would be regarded by members as a 'win' this time round. So long as it is enough to provide a basis for potential victory 4 years from now.

[QUOTE=Bigfella;987251]The budget is a nightmare. Even a highly competent treasurer would struggle with the current circumstances. We have Joe Hockey. They will patch something together, but it will involve a deficit much bigger than promised and policies most of the party will hate. The Senate cross benchers will be in no mood to be helpful. They weren't helpful against a new government with a big majority when they were novices. Now they have a weak government and a weak PM and they have had a year to get up to speed. The immigration minister effectively forcing them to vote for a measure they disliked by threatening not to release children from detention will cost the Government dear - especially as the kids have not been released yet.

In short, they need to produce a budget they don't agree with & can't afford and get it through a Senate that hates their guts. If they can do it Abbott might actually survive. Not putting money on it.

Yep, I expect another budget circus unless the Libs produce a budget so noncontroversial that it as little or no economic impact - which is a losing proposition for them next time round anyway.

Louis
05 Mar 15,, 10:56
Where's Sir Johannes "Joh" Bjelke-Petersen, KCMG when you need him, eh? In a hole, that's where.