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notorious_eagle
15 Jun 14,, 16:39
RAWALPINDI: The army has officially launched a highly anticipated operation in North Waziristan, according to an ISPR press release.
“DG ISPR has said that on the directions of the Government, Armed forces of Pakistan have launched a comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists who are hiding in sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency. The operation has been named Zarb-e-Azb,” said the press release.

The meaning of Zarb-e-Azb is sharp and cutting. It’s reportedly the sword used by Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) in the battle of Badar.

The statement went on to add that terrorists in N Waziristan had waged a war against the state of Pakistan and had been disrupting life in all its dimensions, stunting our economic growth and causing enormous loss of life and property. “They had also paralysed life within the agency and had perpetually terrorised the entire peace loving and patriotic local population,” the statement added.

“Our valiant armed forces have been tasked to eliminate these terrorists regardless of hue and colour, along with their sanctuaries. With the support of the entire nation, and in coordination with other state institutions and Law Enforcement Agencies, these enemies of the state will be denied space anywhere across the country. As always, armed forces of Pakistan will not hesitate in rendering any sacrifice for the motherland,” said the statement.

Army launches Zarb-e-Azb (sharp and cutting) operation in North Waziristan – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/722202/army-launches-operation-in-north-waziristan/)

notorious_eagle
15 Jun 14,, 16:44
37154

ISLAMABAD: Over 80 people were killed as Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets bombed hideouts of suspected militants in Dattakhel area of North Waziristan early on Sunday, Express News reported.
“Today at about 0130 hours (2030 GMT), a number of terrorist hideouts in Dehgan, Datta Khel in North Waziristan were targeted by jet aircraft. The number of terrorists killed in early morning strikes has risen to 80, mostly Uzbeks,” a military statement said.
However local security officials put the death toll far higher, saying that about 150 militants died in the air strikes.
The air force also carried out shelling late Sunday morning in the Mirali area of North Waziristan.
An Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) press release confirmed that terrorists linked to planning the attack on Karachi airport were present in the hideouts that were bombed. The mastermind behind the attack - Abu Abdur Rehman Almani - was among the dead, Express News reported.
At least 37 people, including 10 terrorists, were killed in the all-night battle at Jinnah International Airport that had started on June 8. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) had claimed responsibility for the attack.
The ISPR stated that mostly Uzbek foreigners were killed in the strikes. An ammunition dump was also destroyed, according to the press release.
Terrorists of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) were also allegedly killed in the bombings, Express News reported.
“Up to 150 people were killed during the strikes early Sunday. These strikes were carried out based on confirmed reports about the presence of Uzbek and other militants in the area,” an intelligence official said.
Another security official said that “the number of the killed people was even more than 150″.
The Pakistan military has not confirmed the higher figure.
Following the incident, the local political administration imposed a curfew in the area for an indefinite period.
Previous bombings
On Jun 10, aerial bombing in Tirah valley of Khyber Agency killed at least 25 militants.
On May 23, gunship helicopter and jet planes bombed hideouts of suspected militants in North Waziristan, killing four and injuring three others.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/722108/fresh-jet-bombing-kills-over-100-people-in-north-waziristan/

notorious_eagle
15 Jun 14,, 16:46
ISLAMABAD: As army air strikes intensified in North Waziristan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have offered an olive branch to the government, saying they are still open to ‘meaningful’ peace talks.
“The government has constantly adopted a non-serious approach. This forced us to end [the] ceasefire and launch counter-attacks, which was our right and [an] obligation under Sharia,” said TTP spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid. However, the spokesman said the Taliban are still ready for meaningful talks.
He said statements from a senior member of the government’s negotiation team, Maj (retd) Aamir, have exposed the government’s real intentions. “Changes of the government’s team and their internal rifts have also had a negative impact on the process,” he said.
The government did not release a single non-combatant prisoner and also avoided producing Taliban prisoners before the court, Shahid said.
“The TTP was trapped under the pretext of dialogue. A secret operation code-named ‘root out’ was launched against the Mujahideen and their sympathisers across the country, and over 500 innocent people including some Taliban members were arrested,” the TTP spokesperson alleged.
Shahid also dismissed the army’s claims of casualties caused by air strikes in North Waziristan. He said the fighter jets have once again “targeted innocent people” in North Waziristan, and have killed and injured hundreds of people in overnight air strikes.
“We will launch revenge attacks,” Shahid said Sunday, hours after fighter jets rained bombs on what the army claimed were “hideouts of terrorists” in the Datta Khel area.
A military statement said a number of “terrorist’s hideouts in Degan, Datta Khel in North Waziristan Agency, were targeted by jet aircrafts.”
There were also confirmed reports of the presence of foreign and local terrorists in these hideouts, some linked to the planning of the Karachi airport attack.
The military said over 50 “terrorists, mostly Uzbek foreigners” were killed in the strikes and an ammunition dump has also been destroyed.
The TTP spokesperson said the PML-N and the ‘Punjab establishment’ have planned to launch a full-scale war in the near future.
Shahid said the airstrikes are alienating the people of the tribal region as around 50,000 people have migrated to Afghanistan, and such a situation presents a disastrous situation for the future of Pakistan.
The government began negotiations with the TTP through intermediaries in February, with a ceasefire beginning March 1 but breaking down a month later.
Eight killed in fresh infighting
Eight militants were killed Sunday in the latest clashes between the Pakistani Taliban and a breakaway faction in North Waziristan on Sunday, officials said.
The fighting erupted in the Wacha Mela area 65 kilometres west of Miranshah, the capital of North Waziristan tribal district.
A total of 106 militants have been killed since supporters of commander Khalid Mehsud, alias Khan Said Sajna, began battling followers of the slain former Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud in April.
Khalid Mehsud’s group last month split from the umbrella Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a move which analysts described as a victory for the Pakistani military’s strategy of sowing divisions between insurgent factions.
The latest fighting left eight militants dead and three wounded, a local intelligence official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“Six of the dead militants belonged to the Hakimullah group,” he said.
Another security official and a militant source confirmed the fighting and casualties.
The powerful Mehsud faction parted ways with the TTP last month after its senior leader, Azam Tariq, blamed the TTP for “falling in the hands of conspirators and indulging in burglaries and extortion.”
The Taliban under Maulvi Fazalullah had been silent over the division for nearly three weeks and TTP spokesperson briefly touched upon what is widely believed as a serious development for the group.

TTP extends olive branch after N Waziristan air strikes – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/722177/ttp-extends-olive-branch-after-n-waziristan-air-strikes/)

notorious_eagle
15 Jun 14,, 16:53
MIRAMSHAH: Some of the world's most feared militants are quietly slipping away from the North Waziristan tribal region in anticipation of a long-rumoured military operation, raising questions about the effectiveness of such intervention.

The exodus from the mountainous district on the Afghan border began in late May following air strikes by the Pakistani military, locals said.

But it has been hastened by the Taliban's all-night siege of Karachi airport this week, which all but destroyed a tentative peace process.

On Wednesday night two US drone strikes hit the region killing at least 16 in the first such attack this year, fueling suspicion of coordination between the two countries, with Islamabad's patience for talks seemingly exhausted.

But as pressure builds for a fuller response to the airport assault, which was joined by militants from Uzbekistan, residents and officials in North Waziristan's main town of Miramshah said the majority of foreign and local fighters had already left.

“Most of them have gone deep into the mountains towards the Afghan border,” a senior security official said.

The locals said militant groups were also seen escaping from villages that are a known hub of the dreaded Haqqani network, an Al-Qaeda affiliate known for its spectacular attacks against US forces in Afghanistan.

Rumours of a ground offensive in North Waziristan, one of seven tribal regions along the border, have abounded for years.

But authorities have held back from a final push — possibly fearing the blow-back in Pakistan's major cities such as Karachi, where 38 people including 10 militants were killed at the airport.

However, the sheer numbers of people leaving — some 60,000, according to official estimates, since late May — suggest that this time might be different.


Empty bazaars
Residents saw foreign militants leaving the Machis Camp and Dattakhel village near Miramshah, as well as the villages of Musaki, Hurmaz, Hessokhel and Api.

The fighters included Chechens, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Tajiks and Uighurs, residents and officials said.

They arrived during the early 2000s, lured by the fiery rhetoric of Osama bin Laden and the chance to fight “infidel” forces in Afghanistan.

Married into the local population, some have erected mud houses in small villages among the area's rugged mountains.

Others “have rented houses and rooms here but they have now left towards the Afghan border”, a grocery shop owner in Miramshah bazaar said.

Another resident in Miramshah estimated that more than 80 per cent of local and foreign fighters have left North Waziristan.

The migrations began on May 22 when Pakistani F-16s pounded suspected targets, killing at least 75 according to the military.

Government representatives also began holding talks two weeks ago with a grand Jira, or council of elders, warning them to hand over foreigners in the area or face severe consequences.

“Tribesmen are against war, they want to solve this conflict with talks and according to tribal traditions and that's why we have formed a peace Jirga,” Jirga chief Sher Mohammed said.

Residents said some Jirga members last week made announcements from mosque loudspeakers in several villages asking foreign fighters to leave the area.

They also made those under their command hoist Pakistani flags to demonstrate their loyalty and ward off aerial attacks.

Deliberate strategy?
Most areas along the border are not well demarcated, which allows militants to escape into Afghanistan.

“They have moved towards Shawal and Birmal,” an intelligence official said, referring to remote villages on the Afghan border.

A second security official said: “It is good that they [fighters] are leaving. We hope that tribesmen will not allow them to come and settle here again.

“In case of any military operation, we will face less resistance,” he added.

Residents said they have seen less activity of the feared Haqqani fighters in recent weeks. “They are also disappearing, probably they have gone to Khost, Paktia or Paktika,” one resident in Miramshah said, naming Afghan border provinces.

Imtiaz Gul, a security analyst and long-time observer of the tribal areas, said the Jirga and other threats of full-scale action in North Waziristan appeared to be a deliberate strategy on Pakistan's part.

“This was probably done with a clear intent and that intent was to let them cross the border if they like.

“As long they cross the border — why should it be Pakistan's headache? It's then the headache of Afghan and coalition forces,” he said, adding that such movement had occurred in the past when Islamabad had launched operations in other parts of the tribal areas and in Swat Valley. This is why it was so difficult to engage militants in a fight in the area, as they could eventually return.

“They keep going backwards and forwards — they can't plug the entire border whether it's Pakistani militants or foreign militants. “

North Waziristan empties out as foreign fighters flee - Pakistan - DAWN.COM (http://www.dawn.com/news/1112503)

Minskaya
16 Jun 14,, 21:54
Taliban Fighters Warn Foreign Investors to Leave Pakistan
June 16, 2014

Pakistan’s military began a full-scale operation in the Taliban stronghold of North Waziristan, prompting insurgents to warn foreign investors, airlines and multinational companies to leave the country. “We’re in a state of war,” Shahidullah Shahid, a spokesman for the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, said in a statement yesterday. “Foreign investors, airlines, and multinational companies should cut off business with Pakistan immediately and leave the country or else they will be responsible for their damage themselves.”

I would imagine kidnappings of foreigners will also be in the brew.

Neo
16 Jun 14,, 22:42
I would imagine kidnappings of foreigners will also be in the brew.

TTP's main target could be the 10.000+ Chinese working in KPK and GB provinces. Other than that there are not many foreigners in areas.

Govt has already placed Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar International Airports under military control. Security is being increased in major cities as well.

Minskaya
17 Jun 14,, 08:54
Govt has already placed Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar International Airports under military control. Security is being increased in major cities as well.
I hope they are also increasing security at schools for girls.

notorious_eagle
17 Jun 14,, 12:25
PESHAWAR: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Sardar Mahtab Ahmad Khan on Monday asked the Afghan government not to provide shelter for the North Waziristan people fleeing their homes due to the uncertain security situation.

Addressing a news conference at the Governor’s House here, Sardar Mahtab said the Afghan government should refrain from encouraging Pakistani tribesmen to take shelter on its soil and that Islamabad had already taken up the matter with Kabul through the Foreign Office.

“This is inappropriate. The Afghan government should not offer refuge and incentives to the dislocated people on its territory,” he said while replying to a question about the movement of the people from North Waziristan to Afghanistan.

The governor said the Afghan government was also offering cash assistance to tribal people but its repercussions would be very severe for the entire region as Pakistan did not want to interfere in Afghanistan’s domestic affairs.

He said security forces had sealed checkposts in Ghulam Khan area and other frequented routes along the Afghan border to stop miscreants, especially foreign militants, from entering Afghanistan from North Waziristan.

Governor says action targeted, not to last long
“This is not humanly possible to seal the entire border and some people might have slipped away before the military action began in North Waziristan,” he said.

The Afghan government has said over 6,000 people of North Waziristan have reached Khost province due to clashes between Pakistani security forces and the Taliban and that such people have been provided with relief assistance.

Last week, spokesman for the Khost governor Mubariz Zadran had told Dawn that the Afghan government was ready to welcome Pakistani tribesmen by providing them with shelter on humanitarian ground.

Talking about the ongoing military operation, Zarb-i-Azeb, the governor said the army action would be targeted and would be completed in a short time to avoid and minimise the suffering of the affected people.

He said the large-scale displacement was possible from Waziristan, which had been declared a conflict zone.

“Peshawar Corps Commander Lt-Gen Khalid Rabbani has assured me that security forces will try to ensure the minimum possible collateral damage,” he said.

Sardar Mahtab said the authorities would not repeat what had happened during some previous military operations, where civilians suffered from huge damages to life and property.

He said militants had destroyed the tribal system and were using civilians as a human shield.

The governor said local tribesmen were sick of the Waziristan situation and therefore, they wanted the military to take action against miscreants.

He said the North Waziristan political administration was likely to relax curfew for three days from today (Tuesday) for the evacuation of civilians from the area as hundreds of thousands of people were stranded there due to the four days long curfew.“I understand the misery of displaced population but there’s no option with the government but to launch military action against militants,” he said, adding that the government had tried its best to resolve the issue through dialogue.

Sardar Mahtab said the Fata Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) had begun registration of the internally displaced persons and around 50,000 people had been registered so far.

He said Lt-Gen Rabbani and FDMA director general visited Bannu on Monday to examine relief operations, including establishment of camps for fresh IDPs.

The governor said health teams had been mobilised in the area to vaccinate children, who were earlier stopped from taking polio drops.

He said relief agencies had been given funds to provide the maximum relief to IDPs, who were not coming to tents and taking shelter with host families.

Sardar Mahtab said IDPs would be accommodated in the buildings of government schools.

Published in Dawn, June 17th, 2014

Doktor
17 Jun 14,, 13:09
NE,

I don't get it. Is Pakistan actually asking Kabul to deny entrance to refugees?

lemontree
17 Jun 14,, 18:20
37154

ISLAMABAD: Over 80 people were killed as Pakistan Air Force (PAF) jets bombed hideouts of suspected militants in Dattakhel area of North Waziristan early on Sunday, Express News reported.


I saw some news clippings that showed fighters that looked like the JF-17s.

However, using fighters in COIN is counter productive, unless the government does not care for the people.
From news reports it appears that the Pak army intends to use air power against the Taliban.

I dont want to sound cynical, but the GHQ in Rawalpindi has lost the plot.

bolo121
17 Jun 14,, 19:11
The impression I get is that from the PAs point of view these areas were anyway badlands where the government's writ never held sway.
So to them its pest control, bomb them down into submission, mount a few punitive expeditions and call it a day.

Firestorm
17 Jun 14,, 19:50
I saw some news clippings that showed fighters that looked like the JF-17s.

However, using fighters in COIN is counter productive, unless the government does not care for the people.
From news reports it appears that the Pak army intends to use air power against the Taliban.

I dont want to sound cynical, but the GHQ in Rawalpindi has lost the plot.

I remember news clippings about air strikes, gunship attacks, tanks and even artillery during some of the past PA operations against the Taliban with pious Arabic names. The usual tactic seemed to be to tell people to evacuate a village being used as a hiding place by the Taliban and then flatten it. No reason for it to be different this time.

umairch
17 Jun 14,, 22:58
The airpower is being used to reduce the ttp's infrastructure in NWA. Most of the strikes being carried out now & in previous months are based on on the ground humint & in some cases target marking by forward operating SSW detachments. Mostly Mk.82 sized LGB's are being used with GBU.10's being used for hardened structures. Before the op started a relatively large heliborne force was dropped in between the Durand Line & NWA border crossings, alongside smaller forces around known TTP & Uzbek strong holds. The main force for the op is the 7th Infantry Div with attached Army Aviation assets. The settled areas are not being attacked. The operation is of a Cordon, Corral, eliminate & hold nature. It will take time & Pak Army has greatly modified its tactics for this op.
The air assets from PAF are F-16s of all 4 sqdrns, ROSE II & III Mirages & JF-17s. Also to my 3 o clock neighbors don't disparage our tactics before you've had some time to see the results. Its been only 2 days.

notorious_eagle
17 Jun 14,, 23:57
NE,

I don't get it. Is Pakistan actually asking Kabul to deny entrance to refugees?

They are asking them to deny entrance to militants escaping the operation. The Government has also asked the Afghan Government to go after TTP's strongholds in Kunar and Nuristan.

notorious_eagle
18 Jun 14,, 00:03
I saw some news clippings that showed fighters that looked like the JF-17s.

However, using fighters in COIN is counter productive, unless the government does not care for the people.
From news reports it appears that the Pak army intends to use air power against the Taliban.

In regards to the use of Air Power, Umairch has answered it. Air Power has largely been used to attack TTP Strongholds largely consisting of bunkers and hardened shelters.


I dont want to sound cynical, but the GHQ in Rawalpindi has lost the plot.

Lets wait and see how the Operation unfolds, its been less than 2 days. The Operation is being led by a very competent Officer, i have every confidence in his judgement.

notorious_eagle
18 Jun 14,, 00:12
ISLAMABAD: After months of dithering, Pakistan's army has launched an offensive against Taliban insurgents near the border with Afghanistan but the tough terrain, a potentially hostile local population and the possibility of revenge attacks in heartland cities could be more difficult to conquer than the militants.

Islamabad has been under intense US pressure for years to crush sanctuaries for militants in the region and Pakistan's move will be greeted with resolute approval in Washington, but the challenges facing its army on the ground mean it should be ready for a long haul.

No single outside force has ever succeeded in subduing the volatile ethnic Pashtun region straddling Pakistan's western frontier with Afghanistan, its deeply tribal population fiercely independent and opposed to any invading army.

The biggest setback may be far away from the battlefields of North Waziristan as the country braces for a wave of Taliban revenge attacks around Pakistan including in Punjab, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's political power base.

“The biggest challenge of this operation is that our success in the tribal areas could quickly turn into losses in the plains of Punjab,” a senior military official close to the operation told Reuters.

“Because there will be blowback and the public will get scared and Taliban sympathisers will come out and say 'we told you so'. And that's where we could lose this battle.”

“That is Nawaz Sharif's biggest challenge,” he added: “To convince the public that it's better to bleed once than to die slowly everyday.”

Ground offensive soon
So far the army has resorted only to air strikes, sending F-16 and Mirage fighter jets to pound suspected militant hideouts up in the mountains in a strategy to disorient the Taliban and sow panic among their ranks.

According to a military official close to the operation, the ground offensive will start in the next week when land forces will try to comb through North Waziristan's valleys and take over villages and buildings.

Air raids have continued daily since Sunday, killing hundreds of fighters and no civilians, according to Pakistani military sources.

The official account is impossible to verify as journalists are not allowed to work freely in the region.

The success of any operation of this scale is impossible without the involvement of the United States, whose forces in neighbouring Afghanistan have crucial intelligence on the location of militant bases and training camps around the region.

Pakistan fears the militants may slip over the border into Afghanistan once the offensive starts and indeed some senior leaders may already have.

Pakistan says it has asked Afghanistan's army to help seal off the border from its side.

But with most US troops leaving Afghanistan this year, it is unclear how much capacity and willingness Washington would have to get involved in another conflict far away from its shores.

Coordination conundrum
Once the ground operation gets under way, analysts also expect the notorious lack of coordination among Pakistan's myriad of security and intelligence agencies to hamper efforts to tackle the insurgency head-on.

“The remote and rugged terrain is a big problem but the biggest challenge is away from the tribal areas,” said a close aide to the prime minister. “It's a question of intelligence coordination throughout the country."

The Taliban are deeply entrenched in Waziristan's complicated patchwork of tribal alliances, blending into the local population and making it hard to distinguish them from ordinary residents.

“The biggest challenge will be intelligence, how to get precise intelligence and then go after them,” said Imtiaz Gul, a security analyst. “They are dealing with a mobile enemy. It pops up here and there, and wherever you apply pressure they move to another place.”

Pakistan's strategy, for now, is to encircle North Waziristan with troops and use helicopters and fighter jets to attack sanctuaries from the air.

Before it launches a ground offensive, the army has given the region's estimated two million population several days to evacuate the area, with a large number of refugees massing in a tent camp across the border in Afghanistan's Khost province, a potential humanitarian crisis in the making.

Those who have stayed behind are unlikely to give troops a warm welcome, analysts say, particularly in areas with traditionally strong Taliban influence.

Even if the army's advance through the region is smooth, it is unclear what would happen afterwards and how Pakistan intends to rebuild the ruined villages to bring the refugees back.

A similar operation in South Waziristan in 2009, which was unpopular among Pakistanis, displaced half a million people as homes, schools and hospitals were turned into hideouts by militants and meagre civic amenities were destroyed. The region remains largely undeveloped.

“The most difficult task is not the operation, they can achieve that and clear the area,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the think tank Pak Institute for Peace Studies.

“It is in the post-operation period when many different scenarios emerge. (Taliban) support networks, their affiliates are still active in many different parts of the country.”

So far air strikes have been targetting mainly Uzbek strongholds in North Waziristan. Allied with the Pakistani Taliban, they have no tribal affiliations in Pakistan and are seen mainly as al Qaeda's foot soldiers with little clout.

Pakistan has always distinguished between the good and the bad Taliban, identifying some as moderates with whom the state can negotiate but the breakdown of talks has changed the picture.

“It's difficult to distinguish between the good and the bad Taliban. It wouldn't be an ideal scenario if the good and the bad Taliban joined forces and attacked the army together,” said Saifullah Mahsud, head of the FATA Research Centre think tank.

Pakistan army in for long haul in offensive against Taliban - Pakistan - DAWN.COM (http://www.dawn.com/news/1113336/pakistan-army-in-for-long-haul-in-offensive-against-taliban)

Neo
18 Jun 14,, 01:27
NE,

I don't get it. Is Pakistan actually asking Kabul to deny entrance to refugees?

Waziristan tribes have sofar been very friendly to taleban and mercenaries from accros the borders. Their Jigra has finally confessed that they have been giving shelter to terrorists. We want them to remain in Pakistan till the ground operations have been completed and the foreign mercenaries are eliminated.

Neo
18 Jun 14,, 01:30
I hope they are also increasing security at schools for girls.

TTP would not bother to attack girls schools, they are after high value targets only with whatever strength they have left.

Neo
18 Jun 14,, 01:37
I saw some news clippings that showed fighters that looked like the JF-17s.

However, using fighters in COIN is counter productive, unless the government does not care for the people.
From news reports it appears that the Pak army intends to use air power against the Taliban.

I dont want to sound cynical, but the GHQ in Rawalpindi has lost the plot.


Airpower is used to decimise the terrorist, actual job and the clean up will be performed by the army. We did that in Bajaur and Swat with great accuracy before, it will work again.
Many talibs have fled to higher mountains with no villages around. There is little collateral damage.

US is working closely with us providing live intell, two drone attacks indicate that work is well coordinated.

lemontree
19 Jun 14,, 06:01
The airpower is being used to reduce the ttp's infrastructure in NWA. Most of the strikes being carried out now & in previous months are based on on the ground humint & in some cases target marking by forward operating SSW detachments. Mostly Mk.82 sized LGB's are being used with GBU.10's being used for hardened structures. Before the op started a relatively large heliborne force was dropped in between the Durand Line & NWA border crossings, alongside smaller forces around known TTP & Uzbek strong holds. The main force for the op is the 7th Infantry Div with attached Army Aviation assets. The settled areas are not being attacked. The operation is of a Cordon, Corral, eliminate & hold nature. It will take time & Pak Army has greatly modified its tactics for this op.

Thanks for that update.

One question - What do you imply by "drop a heliborne force between the Durand Line and border crossings"? I assume the border crossing is on the Durand line, which is the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.


Also to my 3 o clock neighbors don't disparage our tactics before you've had some time to see the results. Its been only 2 days.
This strategy has not worked for you before, what makes you think it will now. But that is your call.

lemontree
19 Jun 14,, 06:04
In regards to the use of Air Power, Umairch has answered it. Air Power has largely been used to attack TTP Strongholds largely consisting of bunkers and hardened shelters.

North Waziristan is the Pushtun base for a reason. It is part of their (Pushtun) notion of the pushtun nation.
The Pak Army has been fighting these regions since the time of the Fakir of Ipi.

umairch
19 Jun 14,, 21:48
The Border is the Durand line but in NWA & other agencies abutting Afghanistan there are crossings which are unmarked. Used by smugglers & the like. I meant dropped between the Durand Line & access ways to said crossings & passes.

umairch
19 Jun 14,, 22:04
The notion of the Pushtun nation in present times is restricted overwhelmingly to Afghan Pasthuns. The majority of Pashtun population lives in Pakistan proper & as a matter of fact majority of Pakistani Pashtuns on the ground hate their kin from the west. The only reasons the Taliban came to be entrenched here were 1) $s. Tribesmen esp Dawar & Mehsud earned massive incomes in form of the rents they recieved from the AQ TT, Uzbek types. As such I say they have themselves to blame as much as anyone else for their predicament. 2) Terror & fear. After ingratiating themselves with the locals these elements started killing off Maliks & the political/civil workers totally fucking up the system & reducing govt writ in the area to near about nil.
People (apologists) say they were sheltered under Pashtunwali. Pashtunwali had nothing to do with it, only money & fear.
As to why an op was not launched in NWA before? Operations were done in NWA before in 2001-2 when they had started trickling in from Afghanistan. Unfortunately the Indian Parliment cock up happened at the same time. With Indian formations sitting at our front gates, we had no choice but to move the bulk of our forces to the east. That too allowed them to entrench themselves. In hind sight it is quite easy to see the what ifs what matters now is seeing this op through to a logical conclusion.

Firestorm
20 Jun 14,, 00:36
Reuters article about the ground situation

(Comments in blue are mine)

Panicked refugees pour out of Pakistan's troubled North Waziristan (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/19/uk-pakistan-security-refugees-idUKKBN0EU10320140619)



Their belongings piled high on buses, rickety donkey carts and tractors, thousands of refugees poured out of Pakistan's North Waziristan on Thursday, terrified by both state troops and Taliban insurgents fighting for control of the troubled region.

Pakistan announced the start of a full-on military offensive on Sunday to quash an increasingly assertive Pakistani Taliban insurgency in the ethnic Pashtun region, the base of some of the country's most feared al Qaeda-linked militants.

Troops have since encircled the mountainous region on the Afghan border and fighter jets have pounded villages and militant hideouts, sending a wave of panicked people spilling into the nearby region of Bannu, as well as Afghanistan.

Should the Afghans refuse entry to them too?

For tens of thousands of people massing in camps and private homes in Bannu, living under army control was as frightening a prospect as living in the Taliban's shadow.

"Waziristan was our paradise but the Taliban and security forces turned it into a hell," said Khair Mohammad, 48, a farmer who brought 20 members of his extended family to Bannu in a wagon pulled by a tractor.

"I didn't want to leave but my children developed serious mental problems because of the bombings by fighter jets and heavy artillery shelling by security forces."

The Pakistani Taliban are deeply entrenched in the complex tribal patchwork of North Waziristan's society, blending into the populace and hard to distinguish from ordinary residents.

Yup. Air strikes are the perfect response to this situation.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his government have tried to engage those they see as moderate Taliban in ceasefire talks but those efforts collapsed after a Taliban attack this month on Pakistan's biggest airport in Karachi.

In response to the army operation, the Taliban commander for North Waziristan, who had entered a peace deal with the government in 2006, announced his forces would launch a counter-offensive on Friday.

"It is a war of defence," a spokesman for Commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Ahmedullah Ahamdi, told Reuters.

He said the Taliban offensive had been dubbed Zarb-e-Momin, or "Strike of the True Muslim" - a clear jibe at the name of the army operation, Zarb-e-Azb, or "Strike of the Prophet's Sword".

It is a war to determine who are the better Muslims, Taliban or the PA. Great!

FEAR AND AIR STRIKES

Some of the displaced people said the most feared militants had disappeared overnight as soon as the army offensive was announced.

"It's very strange that those Taliban considered as anti-state disappeared mysteriously, but security forces continued to conduct raids on our houses and harass innocent people," said bank manager Wali Khan, 47.

"Why didn't they come out of their walled (army) compounds when the Taliban fighters were still in the town?"

He said he and other refugees had enough time to pack only the essentials for their journey and no one could say when they might be able to return home.

Breaking into tears, Khan added: "If I could, I would have brought my cow and other cattle. We left them behind and it was like leaving children behind."

Residents of the North Waziristan capital of Miranshah said more than two-thirds of families had left by Thursday, with some disappearing into the mountains.

Long queues stretched out of refugee centres where residents must register before leaving, as people waited for hours under the scorching sun. Women, some barefoot, used their head-to-toe burkas to shield children from the heat.

The army has launched daily air strikes in North Waziristan but a full-scale ground offensive has yet to start.

It relaxed the day-long curfew on Wednesday to allow residents to leave, triggering a sudden exodus into Bannu as well as Afghanistan's province of Khost where officials said at least 10,000 refugees were seeking shelter.

Officials in Bannu and nearby areas have registered ‎70,000 refugees, but the number is likely to rise as more people trickle out of North Waziristan.

Like I said, usual strategy of telling people to leave and then flattening villages with bombs and artillery shells.

The government has set up camps and refugee registration centres to control the flow, but some people said they would not use state facilities for fear of Taliban retribution.

"The Taliban have their informants everywhere, even at the registration centres and government departments," said Abdul Wasey, 32, who described himself as a science student.

"That is why we would rather die than receive any help from the government."

Others complained the government was doing too little.

"The government is treating us badly. We have done nothing. Those who were involved in militant activities have already fled," Abdul Rehman, 50, a resident of Miranshah, told Reuters. "Why we are being punished for someone else's crime?"

(Writing by Maria Golovnina; Additional reporting by Haji Mujtaba in Miranshah; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Robert Birsel)

lemontree
20 Jun 14,, 06:18
The Border is the Durand line but in NWA & other agencies abutting Afghanistan there are crossings which are unmarked. Used by smugglers & the like. I meant dropped between the Durand Line & access ways to said crossings & passes.

Second question - Does'nt the FC man the Durand line?...it may appear that they don't and the border is an open highway for them to cross.


The notion of the Pushtun nation in present times is restricted overwhelmingly to Afghan Pasthuns. The majority of Pashtun population lives in Pakistan proper & as a matter of fact majority of Pakistani Pashtuns on the ground hate their kin from the west. The only reasons the Taliban came to be entrenched here were 1) $s.
That notion exists in the highland Pashtuns like the Haqqqani. The Taliban are made up of the lowland Pashtuns.


As such I say they have themselves to blame as much as anyone else for their predicament. 2) Terror & fear. After ingratiating themselves with the locals these elements started killing off Maliks & the political/civil workers totally fucking up the system & reducing govt writ in the area to near about nil.
Why blame them and absolve the GHQ in Rawalpindi for allowing them to establish their bases there?


People (apologists) say they were sheltered under Pashtunwali. Pashtunwali had nothing to do with it, only money & fear.
Not Pastunwali but tribal affiliations.


As to why an op was not launched in NWA before? Operations were done in NWA before in 2001-2 when they had started trickling in from Afghanistan. Unfortunately the Indian Parliment cock up happened at the same time. With Indian formations sitting at our front gates, we had no choice but to move the bulk of our forces to the east. That too allowed them to entrench themselves. In hind sight it is quite easy to see the what ifs what matters now is seeing this op through to a logical conclusion. .
That is a rather feeble excuse. You have had the Afghan militias there since 1974. We are qauite aware of the genisis of the Pak-Afghan conflict and the role played by the various warlords and their affiliation with the Pak military.

Minskaya
21 Jun 14,, 16:35
Pakistan Says 307,501 Have Fled Tribal Region
June 21, 2014

The number of Pakistanis who have fled a tribal area bordering Afghanistan where the army is fighting militants has risen to 307,501, officials said Saturday. Since Wednesday when a curfew was relaxed in North Waziristan, 25,242 families have left the area and registered at checkpoints along the way, said Arbab Muhammad Arif, who heads the administration of seven tribal regions along Afghan border. The figure includes 62,000 people who left the area of operations before June 18, he added, saying that displaced families were provided with food, drinks and 5,000 rupees ($50) per family. The curfew will remain relaxed until Sunday, he said, and the administration is expecting another 100,000 tribesmen and their families to leave.
ABCNews (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pakistan-307501-fled-tribal-region-24243892)

I assume most of those fleeing are rural and poor. Where do all these refugees go and what happens when they get there?

Double Edge
21 Jun 14,, 16:42
They go to Afghanistan and get put up in tent towns. Some of the fighters will also escape in the same way.

The border will be an increasing source of irritation in the future for both the countries as it cannot be sealed by either side. So each blames the other for providing a safe harbour.

For this to work it requires mil-to-mil- cooperation between both. As it is relations are not that good on the political level. And Salala compounded it for ISAF.

Minskaya
21 Jun 14,, 16:44
They go to Afghanistan and get put up in tent towns. Some of the fighters will also escape in the same way.

The border will be an increasing source of irritation in the future for both the countries as it cannot be sealed by either side. FOr this to work it requires mil-tomil- cooperation between both. As it isrelations are not that good on the political level.

Why not go eastwards into Pakistan proper? Language, customs, etc?

notorious_eagle
10 Jul 14,, 00:20
Zarb-e-Azb: ISPR says 80 percent of Miranshah cleared of terrorists

RAWALPINDI (Web Desk) - Eighty percent area of Miranshah has been cleared of terrorists, says Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).
Briefing local and foreign media persons, Director General ISPR and Commander Zarb-e-Azb said there was also presence of Al-Qaeda in Miranshah.
The journalists were told that so far 100 hideouts of terrorists were destroyed. Over 400 terrorists were killed and 130 injured during military operation.
No civilian has so far been killed in the operation.
The Commander Zarb-e-Azb said North Waziristan was centre of planning, logistic and communication for the terrorists.
To a question DG ISPR said all terrorists will be eliminated without any discrimination.
The ISPR demanded of the Afghan government to prevent entry of fleeing terrorists in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday, another eleven terrorists were killed as PAF jets pounded three militant hideouts in Miranshah area of North Waziristan.
Pak Army is using troops, tanks and jets in North Waziristan and has vowed to wipe out strongholds which insurgents have used to mount countless deadly attacks in recent years.
So far, more than 400 militants have been killed in the offensive while 20 soldiers have embraced martyrdom, according to the military.
On Tuesday, 13 terrorists were killed and their seven hideouts were destroyed by jet aircrafts in the Degan area of North Waziristan. A large part of Miranshah was cleared from terrorists in the ground and aerial offensive that continues as part of the ongoing Zarb-e-Azb operation in North Waziristan Agency.
According to FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA), more than 800,000 people have left the North Waziristan tribal area for the nearby town of Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Karak and Dera Ismail Khan since the military operation began in mid-June.
Officials from the FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) said they were checking registrations for duplicates, meaning the figure may come down.
"Some 833,274 people or 66,726 migrating families from North Waziristan were registered in cities of Bannu and Peshawar until Tuesday evening," Arshad Khan, said FDMA director general.
He said 361,459 of the displaced were children and 248,633 women.
Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched on June 15 after a dramatic attack on Karachi airport last month which killed dozens of people and marked the end of a faltering peace process with the Tehreek-e-Taliban.
Earlier, Army Chief General Raheel Sharif met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and briefed him over the developments in operation Zarb-e-Azb.
PM stated that the operation against the militants would ensure peace in the country. The government is trying its utmost to rehabilitate the affectees.
General Raheel Sharif gave a detailed briefing to the Prime Minister on the progress of operation Zarb-e-Azb. Army Chief stated that the operation is being carried out along the lines chalked out.
General Sharif also informed the PM of the conditions of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and Nawaz Sharif complimented the army men for their valor and determination. He further added that Pakistan army is achieving the set goals in minimal amount of damage deriving the operation towards success. Operation Zarb-e-Azb would ensure peace and prosperity in the region.
Expressing satisfaction over the efforts made by the army and all the state institutions for the help and care extended to the IDPs, PM said that the government is taking firm steps to ensure the rehabilitation of the affectees.
The sacrifices made by the IDPs for country’s stability and security were also acknowledged in the meeting.

Zarb-e-Azb: ISPR says 80 percent of Miranshah cleared of terrorists | Pakistan | Dunya News (http://dunyanews.tv/index.php/en/Pakistan/228231-ZarbeAzb-ISPR-says-80-percent-of-Miranshah-clea)


Pakistan Army starts operation against TTP in Diamar Valley


Pakistan Army starts operation against TTP in Diamar Valley

GILGIT, Pakistan Army starts operation against TTP in Diamar Valley. Northern Pakistan: Pakistan Army military helicopters are busy in finding and killing terrorists as far as the lush green beautiful valley of Gilgit and Baltistan. Now operation against terrorists has been expanded to mountains of Diamer Valley. This is same place where Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed 12 foreign tourists last year. This Valley has been a perfect summer hideout of North Waziristani terrorists for the last 5 years but no action had ever been done against them because every time Chilas Jirga came to rescue terrorists whenever government tried to start action against them.

Chilas Jirga always got suspension of operation against terrorists from local administration and let terrorists to live and work in this dense forested valley. Majority of local officials has allegedly been supporting the cause of TTP that was also involved in cutting trees and selling them illegally with the alleged support of the Jirga.

TTP killed one Army Col and one SP Police last year. These two officials were working to find terrorists who killed tourists on Nanga Parbat trail. No operation in Diamar Valley was done even after the death of these two senior government officials of the security agencies. What was the reason and why government was not taking action in Chilas and Diamar valley? Nobody can answer this question except local administration. Local allegedly Jirga supports radical Islamisation in this area as thousands of Afghan Mujahideens settled in this area after 1979 Afghan-Russian Jihad.

Why Pakistan Army started operation in this area now?

Pakistan Army had credible information that TTP Jihadis left North Waziritsan and disappeared in Mansehra, Battle, Jangle Mangle Chilas, Babusar Top, Thak and Diamer Valley because Jihadi could not manage to run away inside Afghanistan this time due to strict security at Afghan border provided by US-Afghan forces on the request of the Pakistan Army. There is no doubt that many TTP members ran away to Afghanistan but not a big force could disappear in Afghanistan this time and Pakistan Army before starting operation ensured this leakage line.

On July 4, TTP attacked a police station in Darel Valley wearing army uniforms and took away arms, ammunition and police uniforms. They also directed policemen present in police station to leave government jobs and join TTP by offering them handsome salary package.

Now Pakistan Army is busy to find TTP members in dense forest of Thak Nullah that is at the left side of Babusar Top, Naran valley. This is the same place where TTP killed 30 bus passengers who were from Shia community of Gilgit Baltistan. Operation is also continue in Muspar Forest between Thak and Batogah Nullah.

Although Pakistan Army is keeping this operation low profile but locals of these areas confirmed that a full operation is on in forest and helicopters are also being used.

Pakistan Army starts operation against TTP in Diamar Valley (http://www.dnd.com.pk/pakistan-army-start-operation-ttp-diamar-valley/)

notorious_eagle
10 Jul 14,, 00:21
BANNU (Dunya News) – A store owner from Miranshah Rasheed-ur-Rehman claimed on Tuesday that Taliban like American soap and ladies perfume more, adding that Taliban always paid the sought price of commodities. He said the daily sale at his shop was worth Rs 1.25 lakh and that the North Waziristan operation badly affected his business, Dunya News reported.
According to details, the vendor revealed that the Taliban like branded western products including Secret Love, Blue Lady and Rasasi perfumes. He said Taliban did not like products manufactured in Pakistan.

Taliban like American soap and ladies perfume more: Miranshah vendor | Pakistan | Dunya News (http://dunyanews.tv/index.php/en/Pakistan/227235-Taliban-like-American-soap-and-ladies-perfume-more)

This is hillarious :biggrin:

notorious_eagle
10 Jul 14,, 00:28
Pictures from the front lines:

3732437325373263732737328

notorious_eagle
10 Jul 14,, 00:29
37329

Corps Commander leading from the front

37330

Pedicabby
10 Jul 14,, 00:33
Cool pics dude. Cheers.

notorious_eagle
10 Jul 14,, 02:42
MIRAMSHAH: Almost a month after Operation Zarb-e-Azb was formally started in mid June, the army allowed local and international media to visit Miramshah in North Waziristan, main centre for militants.
The on going operation has forced locals and militants to flee, leaving the town, and one of the major bases for the militants, deserted.
Media personnel were shown around the militant facilities. An al Qaeda-inspired flag along with weapons, explosives and other material recovered by the military were displayed.
During a media briefing by the ISPR director Major General Asim Bajwa and Operation Commander Major General Zafar Khan said that as many as 400 terrorists have been killed while 130 have been injured in the operation so far. Over 2,000 IEDs were found from the 11 IED factories discovered by the military.
Maj-Gen Bajwa said they had also discovered the under ground tunnels that the militants had constructed in the area. At least one of the tunnels made by the militants was a kilometer long.
“This [Miramshah] was one of their major base, we have dislodged them from here and now they on the run,” said Bajwa.
“We have also discovered their command and control centre, which would definitely affect their capabilities,”
The spokesperson said the area was one of the stronghold of the militant and as military entered the area it was discovered that they have stored explosives and IEDs.
Giving details about the operation, the Operation Commander said that armed forces have gained control of the 80 per cent of the area.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb: Terrorists are on the run, says Bajwa – The Express Tribune (http://tribune.com.pk/story/733537/operation-zarb-e-azb-terrorists-are-on-the-run-says-bajwa/)

Neo
30 Aug 14,, 03:07
70 percent fighters ready to quit TTP


PESHAWAR - An internecine feud within Maulana Fazlullah-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become so severe that more than 70 per cent of the leading fighters in the outfit are ready to defect the TTP and announce the formation of their own independent factions, according to a senior Taliban commander.

The differences within TTP emerged after the start of military operation Zarb-e-Azb on June 15, and with each passing day the tension is mounting further. “There is severe indiscipline in the central TTP and some people very close to Maulana Fazlullah are responsible for it,” said the commander who wished not to be named and added, “We complained about the indiscipline to the central leadership but Fazlullah has so far paid no heed to it.”

According to well-placed militant sources, some people who are unfit for the job have been appointed on key posts while others are demanding suitable persons to replace those blue-eyed persons.
“We are still waiting for the high leadership to listen to our demands; otherwise in the coming days Malakand Agency, Mohmand Agency and Khyber Agency chapters of Taliban will announce the formation of their own regional set-ups. More than 70 per cent disgruntled members are ready to leave the central TTP,” according to the commander.

According to sources among the militants, if these powerful groups separate themselves from the central TTP, Fazlullah will be left with very limited fighters. “Amongst the leading TTP leaders, Commander Shehriar Mehsud, Khalifa Omar Mansoor (Dara Adamkhail), Shahidullah Shahid, current spokesperson, and Sheikh Khalid Haqqani are still close to Fazlullah. If the concerns of disgruntled members are not addressed, it could pose a serious risk to the TTP,” according to multiple militant sources.

The disgruntled members of TTP have also criticised the central spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid for his poor role during the ongoing military operation.

Earlier this year when TTP initiated peace talks with the government, a group of militants separated itself from the TTP and announced formation of Ahrar-ul-Hind (AuH). AuH under the leadership of Maulana Umar Qasmi has been joined by senior commanders of TTP from different parts of the country. Maulana Habibul Haq alias Nazim Sahib, Maulana Yaseen and Maulana Salih from Malakand Agency, Maulana Hamza from Mohmand Agency, Maulana Naik Salam Haider from Orakzai Agency, Misbahuddin Sayyad from Kohat and Abu Ibrahim from Punjab have joined AuH who were once leading commanders of the TTP.

Since the formation of AuH, TTP has not carried out any major attacks while AuH has claimed a number of attacks across the country.

After the formation of AuH, another big blow to TTP was the separation of Khan Said alias Commander Sajna, who leads one of the strongest factions of militants in South Waziristan. The departure of Sajna was not only an irrecoverable loss for Fazlullah but it was also the end of TTP control in Mehsud dominated tribal agency.

With the start of military operation Zarb-e-Azb, Fazlullah-led TTP has almost receded into background. The group has neither shown any retaliation nor its central spokesperson Shahid has appeared in the media to defend the stance of the outfit. During this period, Mohmand Taliban, the group led by Omar Khalid Khurassani, remained active that sheltered some fleeing militants from North Waziristan and has also carried out a media campaign.

Meanwhile, Jamaat-ul-Ihraar (JuI), a new group within the TTP, has emerged comprising senior Taliban commanders. According to a post of JuI in the social media, Maulana Qasim Khurassani is head of the group’s central Shura. Other Shura members include Qari Ismail (Khyber Agency), Mullah Yaseen (Swat), Maulana Abdullah (Bajaur), Maulana Shakeel Ahmad Haqqani (Charsadda), Mufti Misbah (Peshawar), Maulana Haider Mansoor (Orakzai Agency) and Omar Khalid Khurassani (Mohmand Agency).

Ihsanullah Ihsan is the spokesperson of the group who on Friday claimed the group’s involvement in the attack on Samungali and Khalid airbases in Quetta along with Sajna group and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)


National News &#8211 The Nation (http://www.nation.com.pk/national/17...dy-to-quit-ttp)

gf0012-aust
30 Aug 14,, 03:44
According to well-placed militant sources, some people who are unfit for the job have been appointed on key posts while others are demanding suitable persons to replace those blue-eyed persons.

chechyans?

barangai
10 Oct 14,, 10:36
Video Footage of Mirali Bazaar


https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=820538554643848

NOTE:Mirali is a small town in NW.

Please Approve the post.

barangai
12 Oct 14,, 10:13
21 militants killed in the recent airstrikes,As per my rough estimate upto 1328 militants are killed so far(Since the officially revealed numbers of 1200 Militants last month.

As the ground operation is all set to enter Shalwal(could be started last week),i am expecting the death toll of militants in shawal aswell as those involved in cross border attacks from Afghanistan side might expand the death toll of militants beyond 2200-2300 when the operation likely finishes in the early months of next year.




21 killed in N Waziristan, Khyber Agency airstrikes - Pakistan - DAWN.COM (http://www.dawn.com/news/1137498/21-killed-in-n-waziristan-khyber-agency-airstrikes)

barangai
18 Oct 14,, 09:48
Operation khyber 1 is launched in Khyber agency

In the last 2 days,upto 15 Terrorist are killed

Six suspected militants killed in Khyber Agency - Pakistan - DAWN.COM (http://www.dawn.com/news/1138795/six-suspected-militants-killed-in-khyber-agency)

barangai
24 Jan 15,, 07:13
2600 militants killed in NW

2600 terrorists killed in Zarb-e-Azb: Khattak | ARY NEWS (http://arynews.tv/en/2600-terrorists-killed-zarb-e-azb-khattak/)

Oracle
24 Jan 15,, 19:45
Why are there no ops against LeT, HeM etc? How come the mastermind of 26/11 roams free in Pakistan and is much revered by Pakistanis? Photo-op doesn't cut much ice with international audience. Results do.

barangai
25 Jan 15,, 18:44
Why are there no ops against LeT, HeM etc? How come the mastermind of 26/11 roams free in Pakistan and is much revered by Pakistanis? Photo-op doesn't cut much ice with international audience. Results do.


We will eventually go after them.

If you don't mind,can you answer me as to why Doval is made national security adviser of India when he himself has admitted in a video that he has lived for 7 years in Pakistan in disguise of a Pakistani muslim?don't you think he might be involved in the RAW sponsored terrorist activities in Pakistan?

barangai
25 Jan 15,, 18:46
DATTA KHEL (Dunya News) – At least 35 terrorists were killed in a jet aircraft bombardment by Pakistan Army in Datta Khel, North Waziristan, Dunya News reported on Sunday.

Datta Khel: 35 militants killed in fresh airstrikes - Live News Pakistan (http://www.livenewspak.com/datta-khel-35-militants-killed-in-fresh-airstrikes/)

Oracle
26 Jan 15,, 16:59
We will eventually go after them.

We'll see. I have found out recently in Pakistani discourses that there are some who treat the Taliban and LeT equally, as terrorists. That's a good start.


If you don't mind,can you answer me as to why Doval is made national security adviser of India when he himself has admitted in a video that he has lived for 7 years in Pakistan in disguise of a Pakistani muslim?don't you think he might be involved in the RAW sponsored terrorist activities in Pakistan?

I have not seen the video so I cannot comment on it. Could you please post it? However, taking your word for it, that's what every external intelligence agency do in hostile countries. The easiest way is to get lost among the crowds, and adopt a Muslim identity. Simple is better. And as far as I know tit-for-tat jobs were the norm during the Khalistani extremism days and to some extent during 90s between IB and ISI, R&AW was to an extent unnecessarily dragged. R&AW's covert ability to hit deep within Pakistan and Pakistani assets were compromised by the Gujral Doctrine. R&AW today ain't the same what it was in the early 90s. But, that is about to change.

Double Edge
26 Jan 15,, 17:14
Why are there no ops against LeT, HeM etc? How come the mastermind of 26/11 roams free in Pakistan and is much revered by Pakistanis? Photo-op doesn't cut much ice with international audience. Results do.
I was thinking we're not seeing any higher ups in the net, seems to be mostly rank and file.

commander
26 Jan 15,, 18:07
We will eventually go after them.

If you don't mind,can you answer me as to why Doval is made national security adviser of India when he himself has admitted in a video that he has lived for 7 years in Pakistan in disguise of a Pakistani muslim?don't you think he might be involved in the RAW sponsored terrorist activities in Pakistan?

Dude.... he is a spy.. and he had lived not only in Pakistan but he had did a lot of missions everywhere else.. Don't give us the crap okay.. we know how your government is using SL to send in spies in our country plotting for another terror attack and gain intel. Moreover you are not our friendly country for us to condemn Doval for spying on your country. USA , Russia , China and any major country you think of have spies all over the world and as far as I know they do it to protect their countries interests. BUT your country uses spies to send in terrorists. RAW/India sponsored terrorism anywhere for that matter (not only Pakistan) is something that only a Pakistani can come up with. We don't indulge in terrorism unlike your ISI or your rag tag bunch that you call as Pakistani Army. So don't tell us who we appoint as NSA or even a peon for that matters. You can fool your country men but not us or the world for that matters.

Oracle
26 Jan 15,, 18:39
I was thinking we're not seeing any higher ups in the net, seems to be mostly rank and file.

My bad, I wasn't being specific. I too mean the higher-ups. The idea, my idea - is to cut off the head of the snake. The body with wither and die. And frankly, I ain't impressed by the cosmetic COIN ops of the Pakistani Army.

notorious_eagle
26 Jan 15,, 20:58
I was thinking we're not seeing any higher ups in the net, seems to be mostly rank and file.

It is because majority of the leadership(Khorasani, Fazullulah etc) ran away to Afghanistan. This is why Pakistan is trying to collaborate and work closely with the Afghans, thus improvement of relations with Ghani's Government.

antimony
26 Jan 15,, 20:59
We will eventually go after them.

If you don't mind,can you answer me as to why Doval is made national security adviser of India when he himself has admitted in a video that he has lived for 7 years in Pakistan in disguise of a Pakistani muslim?don't you think he might be involved in the RAW sponsored terrorist activities in Pakistan?

Taking action against Indian media outlets for this "false claims" regarding US warnings to Pakistan, not appointing top intelligence experts in top security roles because (shudder) they spied against Pakistan...

Any more of your tiresome little troubles we can take care off?

Double Edge
27 Jan 15,, 01:52
I ain't impressed by the cosmetic COIN ops of the Pakistani Army.
Insurgencies take time. There is a lot of cynicism about it. Peshawar school attack would not happen otherwise.

They way they do it looks like pest control, tell the residents to leave then smoke the place out. Move on to the next. Rebuild destroyed villages.

It means a temporary setback in personnel until more can be raised if any are willing. 2600 is a large number.

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 10:42
We'll see. I have found out recently in Pakistani discourses that there are some who treat the Taliban and LeT equally, as terrorists. That's a good start.



I have not seen the video so I cannot comment on it. Could you please post it? However, taking your word for it, that's what every external intelligence agency do in hostile countries. The easiest way is to get lost among the crowds, and adopt a Muslim identity. Simple is better. And as far as I know tit-for-tat jobs were the norm during the Khalistani extremism days and to some extent during 90s between IB and ISI, R&AW was to an extent unnecessarily dragged. R&AW's covert ability to hit deep within Pakistan and Pakistani assets were compromised by the Gujral Doctrine. R&AW today ain't the same what it was in the early 90s. But, that is about to change.

In the Video,Doval admits to be in Pakistan for 7 years.So don't you think he might be involved in the RAW origin terrorist activities in Pakistan(Complete Support to BLA and having close relation with NDS by aiding TTP though Afghanistan)

You can watch the complete video,google it

I lived in Pakistan for 7 Years as Spy (http://talkshows.pk/user-videos/i-lived-in-pakistan-for-7-years-as-spy-ajit-doval-ex-intelligence-officer-now-national-security-advisor-to-modi.html)

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 10:46
Dude.... he is a spy.. and he had lived not only in Pakistan but he had did a lot of missions everywhere else.. Don't give us the crap okay.. we know how your government is using SL to send in spies in our country plotting for another terror attack and gain intel. Moreover you are not our friendly country for us to condemn Doval for spying on your country. USA , Russia , China and any major country you think of have spies all over the world and as far as I know they do it to protect their countries interests. BUT your country uses spies to send in terrorists. RAW/India sponsored terrorism anywhere for that matter (not only Pakistan) is something that only a Pakistani can come up with. We don't indulge in terrorism unlike your ISI or your rag tag bunch that you call as Pakistani Army. So don't tell us who we appoint as NSA or even a peon for that matters. You can fool your country men but not us or the world for that matters.

Well sir believing that India is all Good and Pakistan the only evil.Sorry sir,you have to be honest this time.

After Indian Failed adventure to support BLA and BRA,now they have moved to Afghanistan side to support TTP but they are once again made disappointed as Karzai is no more in kabul but a Pro Pakistan Dr Ashraf Ghani.

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 10:47
India (http://tribune.com.pk/story/828208/indias-role-in-militancy-pakistan-shares-dossier-with-us/)


Pakistan has presented a ‘dossier’ to top US officials detailing evidence of involvement of Indian secret agencies in stoking and supporting militancy in the country’s troubled regions, according to a top defence official.

The disclosure was made during a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Defence presided over by Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed on Monday. The ‘vital’ evidence against India was handed over to senior US military and intelligence officials by army chief General Raheel Sharif during his recent visit to Washington.

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 10:51
Unlike as believed,India is not in favour of a stable and growing Pakistan.This is the reason after the launch of zarbeazb we have seen indian agression across LOC and International border.To disturb Pakistan focus toward eradicating militancy and making the country stable.

Oracle
27 Jan 15,, 11:07
In the Video,Doval admits to be in Pakistan for 7 years.So don't you think he might be involved in the RAW origin terrorist activities in Pakistan(Complete Support to BLA and having close relation with NDS by aiding TTP though Afghanistan)

You can watch the complete video,google it

I lived in Pakistan for 7 Years as Spy (http://talkshows.pk/user-videos/i-lived-in-pakistan-for-7-years-as-spy-ajit-doval-ex-intelligence-officer-now-national-security-advisor-to-modi.html)

I asked you a simple question of why the PA and ISI backed & trained assets like LeT (links between the Army, ISI and LeT are in the public domain) are not tackled, and you go straight into a rant about Doval and R&AW. You're trying to make up fantasies. He worked at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. That's where spies are posted. Every Indian High Commission would have a R&AW station-head, who would be the over-all in-charge of intelligence gathering from an external country. ISI, CIA, MOSSAD - every damn organization have spies and assets in India. And no, there are no R&AW origin terrorist activities in Pakistan. Read the second part of my earlier post again. I hope I have answered your conspiracy theories.

Read this, Gujral, the man behind the raw doctrine that set India behind (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-gujral-the-man-behind-the-raw-doctrine-that-set-india-behind-1771985).

Double Edge
27 Jan 15,, 13:38
Unlike as believed,India is not in favour of a stable and growing Pakistan.
Popular sentiment might give you that impression but a stable and growing Pakistan is very much in India's interest. Nobody is interested in a chaotic, failing and unstable Pakistan.

I would say foreign policy goal #1 would be the normalisation of relations between our countries since day 1. Sadly that day did not come and we don't know when it will.

Do recall Vajpayee's efforts to make peace, Modi will try to match and maybe even outbeat it but the atmosphere has to be conducive before that can happen. Kutchis and punjabis on both sides of the border would like to trade and will if the conditions are provided.


This is the reason after the launch of zarbeazb we have seen indian agression across LOC and International border.To disturb Pakistan focus toward eradicating militancy and making the country stable.
Our actions are focused on the PA because the PA calls the shots. We're not trying to distract the PA from ongoing efforts in your west. But the border strikes tell me we're doing something.

Will the PA cooperate or not is the question. Can we get through and arrive at an accommodation. Can't make much progress otherwise.

kuku
27 Jan 15,, 19:01
Well sir believing that India is all Good and Pakistan the only evil.Sorry sir,you have to be honest this time.

After Indian Failed adventure to support BLA and BRA,now they have moved to Afghanistan side to support TTP but they are once again made disappointed as Karzai is no more in kabul but a Pro Pakistan Dr Ashraf Ghani.
You need to get outside this pakistani military world view,propogating talk of india supporting TTP is like the bullshit Pakistan came with about indian hand in iraqi nuclear program.

the only interest india has in pakistan is to stop its support to anti India groups.

Outside of that pakistan and afghanistan are barren lands which will lead to no trade and from which nothing of value for india will ever come out. Nothing but more Kasabs more Hizbul more JeM more LeT more Talibans
if we could claw our way away from pakistan we would do it even if with our fingernails.
We are stuck as this dilusional state as neighbour.

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 19:47
I asked you a simple question of why the PA and ISI backed & trained assets like LeT (links between the Army, ISI and LeT are in the public domain) are not tackled, and you go straight into a rant about Doval and R&AW. You're trying to make up fantasies. He worked at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. That's where spies are posted. Every Indian High Commission would have a R&AW station-head, who would be the over-all in-charge of intelligence gathering from an external country. ISI, CIA, MOSSAD - every damn organization have spies and assets in India. And no, there are no R&AW origin terrorist activities in Pakistan. Read the second part of my earlier post again. I hope I have answered your conspiracy theories.

Read this, Gujral, the man behind the raw doctrine that set India behind (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-gujral-the-man-behind-the-raw-doctrine-that-set-india-behind-1771985).

i agree some members of the Pakistan army does had relations with LeT in the PAST But they are not part of the army/isi right now.Raheel Sharif approach is much different

RAW has supported the Baloch insurgency and is also involved along with NDS in aiding TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

barangai
27 Jan 15,, 19:51
Popular sentiment might give you that impression but a stable and growing Pakistan is very much in India's interest. Nobody is interested in a chaotic, failing and unstable Pakistan.

I would say foreign policy goal #1 would be the normalisation of relations between our countries since day 1. Sadly that day did not come and we don't know when it will.

Do recall Vajpayee's efforts to make peace, Modi will try to match and maybe even outbeat it but the atmosphere has to be conducive before that can happen. Kutchis and punjabis on both sides of the border would like to trade and will if the conditions are provided.


Our actions are focused on the PA because the PA calls the shots. We're not trying to distract the PA from ongoing efforts in your west. But the border strikes tell me we're doing something.

Will the PA cooperate or not is the question. Can we get through and arrive at an accommodation. Can't make much progress otherwise.

Sorry but i don't agree that wrt indian point of view,a stable and growing Pakistan by no mean is in favor of india.

Well sir it doesn't make sense for PA to engage india on eastern front when today half of our strength is busy fighting on the western front.Why would they do so?let suppose if it escalate to a war,PA will be the most affected because of less defensive power on the eastern front.

antimony
27 Jan 15,, 20:53
Sorry but i don't agree that wrt indian point of view,a stable and growing Pakistan by no mean is in favor of india.

Well sir it doesn't make sense for PA to engage india on eastern front when today half of our strength is busy fighting on the western front.Why would they do so?let suppose if it escalate to a war,PA will be the most affected because of less defensive power on the eastern front.

Several Indians here told you that a damaged Pakistan is not necessarily what India is after. That a peaceful, non threatening Pakistan is actually in India's best interest. You would not listen.

Why?

Is it because of your steady diet of ISPR?

What do you think India is really interested in?

cirrrocco
27 Jan 15,, 21:41
i agree some members of the Pakistan army does had relations with LeT in the PAST But they are not part of the army/isi right now.Raheel Sharif approach is much different

RAW has supported the Baloch insurgency and is also involved along with NDS in aiding TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Oh that must mean D gang and Hafeez must be in jail now and just about to be extradited to India? Let's do this. Next year around the same time, let's come back and talk about the same assholes. I bet they will still be in Pure land.

The delusions that Pakistan come up with is just funny

http://youtu.be/w4o6MDE-WPk?t=2m26s

Oracle
28 Jan 15,, 08:27
Insurgencies take time. There is a lot of cynicism about it. Peshawar school attack would not happen otherwise.

They way they do it looks like pest control, tell the residents to leave then smoke the place out. Move on to the next. Rebuild destroyed villages.

It means a temporary setback in personnel until more can be raised if any are willing. 2600 is a large number.

I know tackling insurgency takes time. But it doesn't take forever. Giving up strategic assets are not in PA's interests. Lists are being drawn, selective targets are being eliminated, and the civilians are told of objectives being met through photo-ops. The way they are doing it is letting the leaders of outfits escape the bombardment and COIN ops (while lower level Jihadis are butchered), to live another day, raise funding and recruit more Jihadis and do the PA's proxy bidding by creating hit-and-run insurgencies in India and Afghanistan.

If it is otherwise, someone please tell me why Hafiz Saeed and Lakhvi have not been hanged? Is the judiciary in Pakistan incompetent or complicit? Lakhvi OTOH enjoys conjugal visits in prison. And we all know why. Pakistani army's '$20bn' business (http://www.aljazeera.com/focus/pakistanpowerandpolitics/2007/10/2008525184515984128.html). Keep raising the Kashmir bogey from time to time, sneak in terrorists in India to create mayhem, a persistent commentary of how a Hindu India is hell-bent on destroying Pakistan - all and more to get the support of the civilians. Killing of their own school kids have not moved the PA and it still discriminates between good and bad terrorists. Takes time, right? Let's wait for another year to discuss the same.

This (Former US general calls for targeting terrorist havens in Pakistan (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/former-us-general-calls-for-targeting-terrorist-havens-in-pakistan/articleshow/46038279.cms)) chorus is getting louder.

Oracle
28 Jan 15,, 08:45
i agree some members of the Pakistan army does had relations with LeT in the PAST But they are not part of the army/isi right now.Raheel Sharif approach is much different

Now you agree? And if the approach is different, the least that Raheel Sharif would have done is thrown Saeed and Dawood in prison. You think I buy it, or for that matter anybody would? Approach doesn't matter. Results do.

What's happening in Pakistan after the school attack is selective hanging of some Jihadis to pacify civilians who lost their kids. Mark my words, nothing would change on the ground as long as the PA is more powerful than the civilian government.


RAW has supported the Baloch insurgency and is also involved along with NDS in aiding TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Inconsistent and inaccurate. Apart from some murmurs, and tid bits in Pakistani press, nothing has come out of it. Pervez Musharraf said it once, yeah. The same guy behind the Kargil attack, who did't even take back PA regulars body killed in the war, and who went on to become the PA Chief. Says much about Pakistani institutions and statements from those actually in power in Pakistan. Had Pakistan respected the land, people and it's resources there would have been no insurgency in Balochistan. Now for some brain exercise. Do you think had R&AW supported the Baloch insurgency and aided TTP, the Americans who led the NATO and ISAF in Afghanistan would have not come on record and admonished India? OTOH, if India had supported the Baloch insurgency, it would have met with success. Again, it's the institutions. 1971 is a case in point.

Double Edge
28 Jan 15,, 12:39
Sorry but i don't agree that wrt indian point of view,a stable and growing Pakistan by no mean is in favor of india.
There are Indian views that advocate fomenting instability in Pakistan as it means Pak is distracted and can use less resources against India. It's a short sighted and unsustainable view. Basically a tit for tat and lacking in vision. This is how a wounded animal behaves.

Just think what normalised relations with Pakistan will do for Hindu muslim relations in India itself. Obvious gain right there isn't it.


Well sir it doesn't make sense for PA to engage india on eastern front when today half of our strength is busy fighting on the western front.Why would they do so?let suppose if it escalate to a war,PA will be the most affected because of less defensive power on the eastern front.
By engage i mean speak to and arrive at an understanding. Nawaz is willing but he does not have the power. The buck does not stop with him.

Double Edge
28 Jan 15,, 13:52
I know tackling insurgency takes time. But it doesn't take forever.
ok, so how much time do they deserve ? these efforts started six months ago.

key here is to see how persistent these efforts are, how effective and what the results are. A year from now, what the situation will be.


Giving up strategic assets are not in PA's interests. Lists are being drawn, selective targets are being eliminated, and the civilians are told of objectives being met through photo-ops.
They bomb their people, there is no house to house that i'm aware of. How counter productive is this in the long term. This is what they can do with the resources they have. Some one will say its over the top and blunt without any surgical precision, others say its not enough.

Always this tension between force and settlement. How much is enough. No one size fits all. Their call. In the end if they get it wrong they will be the first to pay for it.


The way they are doing it is letting the leaders of outfits escape the bombardment and COIN ops (while lower level Jihadis are butchered), to live another day, raise funding and recruit more Jihadis and do the PA's proxy bidding by creating hit-and-run insurgencies in India and Afghanistan.
SO they lose personnel, now they need to get more. How easy or not is it. If they have no fighters then what do these leaders do. Settle or continue the fight. We don't know.


If it is otherwise, someone please tell me why Hafiz Saeed and Lakhvi have not been hanged? Is the judiciary in Pakistan incompetent or complicit? Lakhvi OTOH enjoys conjugal visits in prison.
I would treat this one separetly, it has its own issues. Thread is about zarb e azab, this means actions taken against TTP.


And we all know why. Pakistani army's '$20bn' business (http://www.aljazeera.com/focus/pakistanpowerandpolitics/2007/10/2008525184515984128.html). Keep raising the Kashmir bogey from time to time, sneak in terrorists in India to create mayhem, a persistent commentary of how a Hindu India is hell-bent on destroying Pakistan - all and more to get the support of the civilians. Killing of their own school kids have not moved the PA and it still discriminates between good and bad terrorists. Takes time, right? Let's wait for another year to discuss the same.

This (Former US general calls for targeting terrorist havens in Pakistan (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/former-us-general-calls-for-targeting-terrorist-havens-in-pakistan/articleshow/46038279.cms)) chorus is getting louder.
Rhetoric by people with experience in insurgency who forget what it entails when Pakistan is involved. If you go after everybody then all ally and decide the real enemy is the foreign proxy in Islamabad & Rawalpindi. All traitors. What happened to your legitimacy to lead and authority to carry out strikes ? weaker.

Am more interested in what the people leading this fight are thinking. What is their strategy. What or not constitutes success :)

Oracle
28 Jan 15,, 16:13
ok, so how much time do they deserve ? these efforts started six months ago.

key here is to see how persistent these efforts are, how effective and what the results are. A year from now, what the situation will be.

The US Secretary of State included Pakistan on the list of countries that repeatedly provided support for acts of International terrorism in 1993, ofcourse, until the war on terror that started after 9/11. So Pakistan have had 22 years since then to discontinue State sponsored terrorism. What about 26/11(?), 6+ years now. However, for arguments sake, let's wait for another 6 months. 1 year is a significant amount of time, if the will is there.

This operation is not about insurgency being tackled or about persistence. It's psy-ops to mask the complicity of the Army and the Islamic fundamentalists within the Army & ISI, to make the civilian government look even weaker, and attaining a greater sense of trust from the civilians in the process. If the civilian government is strong, the Army would lose its relevance and also it's 20+ billion US dollar business. It's not about Kashmir, it's not even about the kids killed in Peshawar, it's about money. Billions of it. Oh and well foreign aid. Sixty years of US aid to Pakistan: Get the data (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan)


They bomb their people, there is no house to house that i'm aware of. How counter productive is this in the long term. This is what they can do with the resources they have. Some one will say its over the top and blunt without any surgical precision, others say its not enough.

Always this tension between force and settlement. How much is enough. No one size fits all. Their call. In the end if they get it wrong they will be the first to pay for it.

AFAIK, there are searches after bombardments. It's not like they'd bomb and guess all Jihadis have died and march to an iftar party. This is counter-productive in the sense that no high value targets are eliminated. Makes brain-washing and recruitment easy for those in command. Most of them are foot soldiers. So, there's a leak. Whether it's from within the Army & ISI, or a select few within it will be known in due time. We can just speculate right now. Some did come true as in Osama Bin Laden hiding right under the nose of the PA.



SO they lose personnel, now they need to get more. How easy or not is it. If they have no fighters then what do these leaders do. Settle or continue the fight. We don't know.

I replied that in my earlier post. Live to fight another day, and when the call comes from Rawalpindi, do their bidding.


I would treat this one separetly, it has its own issues. Thread is about zarb e azab, this means actions taken against TTP.

That point was to show the duplicity of this so called war on terror or Zarb-e-Azab or whatever. We can leave it here. Fine by me.


Rhetoric by people with experience in insurgency who forget what it entails when Pakistan is involved.

Very subtle and to the point. :) Most wouldn't understand, you need to write a para instead of hitting with a line. The thing is ex-Generals, Politicians, CIA, contractors all have at one point or the other expressed displeasure on the WoT after their services were over. They are professionals and know better what ails Washington's foreign policy to give Pakistan such a leeway. Someone said it right, when he said - To fix Afghanistan, we need to fix Pakistan first. The days of Islamic terrorism would be over, when Washington acts on the said quote.


If you go after everybody then all ally and decide the real enemy is the foreign proxy in Islamabad & Rawalpindi. All traitors. What happened to your legitimacy to lead and authority to carry out strikes ? weaker.

Policy makers in US have to figure that out. I thought a change of government (from Bush to Obama) would do the trick, but Obama continued with the same policy. Things would probably change if there is a terrorist strike somewhere in US, and traced back to Pakistan. For all we know, the PA & ISI raised many monsters, and some are out of control.


Am more interested in what the people leading this fight are thinking. What is their strategy. What or not constitutes success :)

When you understand that terrorism is big business, you'd be able to connect the dots easily.

Double Edge
29 Jan 15,, 09:42
The US Secretary of State included Pakistan on the list of countries that repeatedly provided support for acts of International terrorism in 1993, ofcourse, until the war on terror that started after 9/11. So Pakistan have had 22 years since then to discontinue State sponsored terrorism. What about 26/11(?), 6+ years now. However, for arguments sake, let's wait for another 6 months. 1 year is a significant amount of time, if the will is there.
I see a policy that has been followed for 30 years and now the world expects them to turn around on a dime. Stop, reverse, u-turn. How realistic is this.

You say a year, why is it not less or more. What more criteria can be used here to judge success or failure. How about the previous operations. Did they succeed. Swat etc. They pushed militants out of the area and into another. Displacing them was easier.


This operation is not about insurgency being tackled or about persistence. It's psy-ops to mask the complicity of the Army and the Islamic fundamentalists within the Army & ISI, to make the civilian government look even weaker, and attaining a greater sense of trust from the civilians in the process. If the civilian government is strong, the Army would lose its relevance and also it's 20+ billion US dollar business. It's not about Kashmir, it's not even about the kids killed in Peshawar, it's about money. Billions of it. Oh and well foreign aid. Sixty years of US aid to Pakistan: Get the data (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/11/us-aid-to-pakistan)
They are going after militants who have declared war on them else they will face their own 9/11. Or as the militants would have it, come after us and we will give you one.

As for money the US has pumped around $100 billion into Afghanistan in ten years. Exceeds what they spent on the Marshall plan.


AFAIK, there are searches after bombardments. It's not like they'd bomb and guess all Jihadis have died and march to an iftar party. This is counter-productive in the sense that no high value targets are eliminated. Makes brain-washing and recruitment easy for those in command. Most of them are foot soldiers. So, there's a leak. Whether it's from within the Army & ISI, or a select few within it will be known in due time. We can just speculate right now. Some did come true as in Osama Bin Laden hiding right under the nose of the PA.

I replied that in my earlier post. Live to fight another day, and when the call comes from Rawalpindi, do their bidding.
Then their idea is reduce the number of fighters or force that can be brought to bear against the state.


That point was to show the duplicity of this so called war on terror or Zarb-e-Azab or whatever. We can leave it here. Fine by me.
The Chinese are also fair targets since lal masjid. Terror attacks are no longer restricted to Xianjiang. Kunming & Beijing were afffected. Add to this the fact that US drones have taken out more uighur militants than the PA and the presence of ISI agents (according to foreign intel) at uighur training camps.


Very subtle and to the point. :) Most wouldn't understand, you need to write a para instead of hitting with a line. The thing is ex-Generals, Politicians, CIA, contractors all have at one point or the other expressed displeasure on the WoT after their services were over. They are professionals and know better what ails Washington's foreign policy to give Pakistan such a leeway. Someone said it right, when he said - To fix Afghanistan, we need to fix Pakistan first. The days of Islamic terrorism would be over, when Washington acts on the said quote.
Tongues wag in retirement but when in power can't do anything. If Afghanistan goes the wrong way the paks will be next in line after the afghans as they're incapable of guarding their western border. Maybe this is the driving factor for this operation and its time of commencement. Thin the ranks now so you have fewer to deal with in the future.

The foreigners shout for more action or not enough is done. The PA has to decide whether the people are with them or not before each operation. Most of the time the people are uncertain because the state is incapable of protecting them. Acquittal rates for militant related crimes is 70-80%.

The ambiguity works both ways as it prevents the state from making a clear stand. The message is mixed. If you doubt the sincerity of the PA's effort i'd have to think it would be even more circumspect among Paks themselves, those that can speak freely.


Policy makers in US have to figure that out. I thought a change of government (from Bush to Obama) would do the trick, but Obama continued with the same policy. Things would probably change if there is a terrorist strike somewhere in US, and traced back to Pakistan. For all we know, the PA & ISI raised many monsters, and some are out of control.
My point is they can't afford to go against all terrorists regardless of what the world says.Not all at the same time. These militants are all linked up, they change affiliations. An attack on one is as good as an attack on all. Today its the TTP, who will it be tomorrow. When will that tipping point come when militants decide its time to collectively go against the PA. PA would want to dissuade such a development. Good vs bad terrorist is one way of delaying such an outcome. Ambiguity adds to it by keeping everybody guessing.


When you understand that terrorism is big business, you'd be able to connect the dots easily.
Your contention is terrorism is a $20 billion annual earner. That this operation amounts to a pruning of the bush not its removal as that means no more $20 billion. So long as there is a war on terrorism there will be a demand for terrorists.

How sustainable. what about those out of control outfits that go biting others including friends. Deal on a case by case basis ?

Oracle
29 Jan 15,, 10:51
I see a policy that has been followed for 30 years and now the world expects them to turn around on a dime. Stop, reverse, u-turn. How realistic is this.

You say a year, why is it not less or more. What more criteria can be used here to judge success or failure. How about the previous operations. Did they succeed. Swat etc. They pushed militants out of the area and into another. Displacing them was easier.

The world expects them to contain the disease they themselves created more so because it has now grown into an export commodity. How realistic? PA is 6.42 Lacs strong, excluding the reserves. You want me to believe they can't fight mule-riding rag-tag militants? The PA have been demanding all sorts of munitions, armaments and military aid from the US to fight the enemy. In due course of time discoveries are made of those flowing towards countering India. I gave it a year because you wanted a year in your argument. And the unwilling trust gathers every-time a glorified op starts somewhere in Pakistan. We've had so much negativity emancipating from Pakistan that any small hint of changes within Pakistan forces us to forget history and think 'Oh this time, they are serious'. Displacing terrorists is another term for allowing those to recoup & regroup to be used later as assets.


They are going after militants who have declared war on them else they will face their own 9/11. Or as the militants would have it, come after us and we will give you one.

As for money the US has pumped around $100 billion into Afghanistan in ten years. Exceeds what they spent on the Marshall plan.

Actually, it's more like militants outside the grip of the ISI. Those within are favored, well fed and protected.

You're comparing the rebuilding of Europe with aid given to Pakistan? If there is a cryptic message, then I don't get it.


Then their idea is reduce the number of fighters or force that can be brought to bear against the state.

And let the top-rung escape? Btw, how do you know (?) or how can you be so sure?


The Chinese are also fair targets since lal masjid. Terror attacks are no longer restricted to Xianjiang. Kunming & Beijing were afffected. Add to this the fact that US drones have taken out more uighur militants than the PA and the presence of ISI agents (according to foreign intel) at uighur training camps.

How's that connected with what I said?


Tongues wag in retirement but when in power can't do anything. If Afghanistan goes the wrong way the paks will be next in line after the afghans as they're incapable of guarding their western border. Maybe this is the driving factor for this operation and its time of commencement. Thin the ranks now so you have fewer to deal with in the future.

The foreigners shout for more action or not enough is done. The PA has to decide whether the people are with them or not before each operation. Most of the time the people are uncertain because the state is incapable of protecting them. Acquittal rates for militant related crimes is 70-80%.

The ambiguity works both ways as it prevents the state from making a clear stand. The message is mixed. If you doubt the sincerity of the PA's effort i'd have to think it would be even more circumspect among Paks themselves, those that can speak freely.

When in power, they respect the command. That is ethics, integrity and professionalism. And those are wise tongues, the kind of have seen it all.

Rest of the post, I kind of unwillingly agree, as I don't have a direct hotline to the PA Chief. But, we'll see in due time.


My point is they can't afford to go against all terrorists regardless of what the world says.Not all at the same time. These militants are all linked up, they change affiliations. An attack on one is as good as an attack on all. Today its the TTP, who will it be tomorrow. When will that tipping point come when militants decide its time to collectively go against the PA. PA would want to dissuade such a development. Good vs bad terrorist is one way of delaying such an outcome. Ambiguity adds to it by keeping everybody guessing.

I kind of agree, but nothing stopped the Pakistanis in getting nukes while feeding on grass. If they are really willing, they need to come out and request ground level (or whatever military term is there) US troops in Pakistan to finish off terrorism once and for all. India would be more than willing.


Your contention is terrorism is a $20 billion annual earner. That this operation amounts to a pruning of the bush not its removal as that means no more $20 billion. So long as there is a war on terrorism there will be a demand for terrorists.

How sustainable. what about those out of control outfits that go biting others including friends. Deal on a case by case basis ?

No. Read what I wrote, again. Let me make it simple for you.

PA-->Control-->Economy of Pak-->20 billion US dollars + Foreign Aid. If I'm a top General in the PA, I wouldn't let it go. Some millions would eventually land in my pocket.

Controlling the economy, anti-India chants etc to remain relevant and stronger than the Civilian government. Blackmailing the Western world that without aid they cannot control the pests they created.

Take up cosmetic ops when the pests bite them (as in the Peshawar attack), to keep them relevant in the eyes of the civilian population .

Kill foot soldiers, let the leaders escape. Continue the cycle.

notorious_eagle
29 Jan 15,, 23:44
Operations in Pakistan force militants into Afghanistan: report

Operations being conducted by Pakistan's military in North Waziristan and Khyber tribal regions have forced al Qaeda, Islamic State (IS) and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) to move into Afghanistan, a Wall Street Journal report quotes Afghan officials and locals as saying.

At least 400 IMU and al Qaeda-affiliated families crossed into Afghanistan last month, who now live in the homes of locals in lawless parts of the country, Afghan officials say.


Read: Kabul asked not to shelter fleeing NWA tribesmen

Haji Abdul Azizi, a tribal elder from Helmand province’s Sangin district, tell WSJ that he hosted a family of Arabic speakers for a night who claimed to be IS loyalists.

"They were six men, seven women and two children, some of whom spoke Pashto", according to Azizi, who added that the "women of the group were armed and took turns keeping watch on each other during the night".

The newcomers try to enforce their own brand of Islam which clashes with local traditions, he added.

Also read| Zarb-e-Azb operation: 120 suspected militants killed in N Waziristan

Afghan officials said that the armed outsiders, traveling with families, have settled in Ghazni, Zabul and Farah provinces. They attributed the influx of militants on the operation being conducted by Pakistan's military across the border.

Tribal elders say that the migrating militants have occupied houses, which were previously vacant, with the assistance of the local Taliban.

A senior Afghan security official said the central government is monitoring the presence of these groups, while a spokesman for international forces in Kabul said that while they had no firsthand knowledge of foreign militants’ activities in Zabul or Ghazni,

The militants who moved in Farah province, and are said to be wealthy, have rebranded themselves under the banner of the IS and have also set up training centres in the locality, Khak-e Safid district’s governor Abdul Khaliq Noorzai said.

“They haven’t fought against Taliban or government yet, but they are actively busy with training,” Gul Ahmad Azimi, a senator from Farah, told the WSJ.

The US military maintains a limited presence in Afghanistan, US and coalition officials say they have limited visibility into militant activity in the country’s hinterlands after the withdrawal of combat troops.

Operations in Pakistan force militants into Afghanistan: report - Pakistan - DAWN.COM (http://www.dawn.com/news/1160199/operations-in-pakistan-force-militants-into-afghanistan-report)

Double Edge
09 Feb 15,, 07:24
So the plan is displacement, rum 'em out of town, chase them in Swat & Mohmand they go to waziristan. Go after them there, where do they go ? not Baluchistan but Afghanistan. Now they are somebody else's problem.

It means the Paks now have something they want from the Afghans. How well they work it out remains to be seen.

lemontree
09 Feb 15,, 11:01
In the Video,Doval admits to be in Pakistan for 7 years.So don't you think he might be involved in the RAW origin terrorist activities in Pakistan(Complete Support to BLA and having close relation with NDS by aiding TTP though Afghanistan)


Ajit Doval is an intelligence officer and that is his job - to gain intelligence on the enemy. So we are not going to apologise for him.
Secondly, TTP is not Indian creation, so please don't attempt to give us that baby.

Besides, we are only reacting to Pak Army's efforts in J&K, whether you call it terror or aggression, it is something your nation will have to deal with as long as they continue their policy of proxy war through jihadi groups.

lemontree
09 Feb 15,, 11:09
I would also request my countrymen to stop asking Pakistani members about Hafeez Syeed, Lakhvi or Dawood. I mean why would the ISI in their right mind hand over they chaps to us. They would be a treasure trove of information that will ruin Pakistani image in front of the world.

IMO, If we have the ability, then we should eliminate them. But "begging" Pakistan to take action against them is pathetic and embarrassing.

Double Edge
09 Feb 15,, 16:52
IMO, If we have the ability, then we should eliminate them. But "begging" Pakistan to take action against them is pathetic and embarrassing.
I used to think that but now i think the MHA is doing the Pak people a favour. They must not stop demanding his conviction.

conviction rates for terrorism in pakistan are 3%. 70-80% of criminal cases are acquitted. If a militant tells you to do something you comply because the state does not have your back. KPS Gill had a mantra ' strengthen the thana' (police station), primary problem.

So long as you can hide behind a veneer of religiosity you can get away with anything.

cirrrocco
09 Feb 15,, 19:23
I would also request my countrymen to stop asking Pakistani members about Hafeez Syeed, Lakhvi or Dawood. I mean why would the ISI in their right mind hand over they chaps to us. They would be a treasure trove of information that will ruin Pakistani image in front of the world.

IMO, If we have the ability, then we should eliminate them. But "begging" Pakistan to take action against them is pathetic and embarrassing.

LT most Indians would want them to become pig feed. The reason why we bring it up is to show the paks complete cognitive dissonance when it comes to terrorism and then rub it in and laugh in their faces. It is esp satisfying to me to see them completely disregard and have officals from govtsay that these guys are not terrorists [added later, fixed ]

Blademaster
09 Feb 15,, 19:37
I would also request my countrymen to stop asking Pakistani members about Hafeez Syeed, Lakhvi or Dawood. I mean why would the ISI in their right mind hand over they chaps to us. They would be a treasure trove of information that will ruin Pakistani image in front of the world.

IMO, If we have the ability, then we should eliminate them. But "begging" Pakistan to take action against them is pathetic and embarrassing.

Exactly! I never quite understood with making the constant demands. Just request one or two times and then go ahead and whack them and show the world you mean business. As a result, the world doesn't take India or GoI's demands seriously.

antimony
09 Feb 15,, 20:51
I would also request my countrymen to stop asking Pakistani members about Hafeez Syeed, Lakhvi or Dawood. I mean why would the ISI in their right mind hand over they chaps to us. They would be a treasure trove of information that will ruin Pakistani image in front of the world.

IMO, If we have the ability, then we should eliminate them. But "begging" Pakistan to take action against them is pathetic and embarrassing.

Because it is a good political point to bring up. I do not know how effective Dawood is at this point, but his very existence gives us a reason to beat Pakistan up. Hafiz Saeed and Lakhvi are a little bit different but serve an even more important point. At this point is Pakistan hands them over, their state would capitulate and they would be mnartyrs. Probably better if they are kept under controlled conditions. Gives the world community another reason to bash Pakistan up

Double Edge
09 Feb 15,, 22:26
Just request one or two times and then go ahead and whack them and show the world you mean business. As a result, the world doesn't take India or GoI's demands seriously.
How well does this policy work for Israel ?

Blademaster
09 Feb 15,, 23:33
How well does this policy work for Israel ?

Why are you comparing Israel to India's situation? That is a red herring. Apples to oranges.

Double Edge
09 Feb 15,, 23:38
because they've been at the receiving end from more than one actor for some time now. Even more critical given their relative size.

Blademaster
09 Feb 15,, 23:41
because they've been at the receiving end from more than one actor for some time now. Even more critical given their relative size.

Don't agree with your logic. Israel is a smaller state than most countries and its internal politics and policies and situation is vastly different from India so its security considerations are vastly different from India. Your example of Israel is just a red herring. The point is that given India's relative size and strength, its refusal to act in interests of national security does not set a good example.

antimony
09 Feb 15,, 23:54
Don't agree with your logic. Israel is a smaller state than most countries and its internal politics and policies and situation is vastly different from India so its security considerations are vastly different from India. Your example of Israel is just a red herring. The point is that given India's relative size and strength, its refusal to act in interests of national security does not set a good example.

India's relative size and strength wrt unfriendly (Pakistan) or potentially unfriendly (China) states is far less than Israel's relative strength wrt Palestine. It does not compare at all

Double Edge
10 Feb 15,, 00:04
Don't agree with your logic. Israel is a smaller state than most countries and its internal politics and policies and situation is vastly different from India so its security considerations are vastly different from India.
Sure, there's lots of things in there but i'm referring to terrorism which they've faced longer than we have.


Your example of Israel is just a red herring. The point is that given India's relative size and strength, its refusal to act in interests of national security does not set a good example.
Israel's terrorist opponents are much smaller.

My point is they've been in the whacking and we mean business game for long time. it buys them a reprieve before the cycle restarts. How much different then is the outcome vis a vis us who you charge with not setting a good example ie our restraint thus far is a liability.

What you suggest is what seemed like a good idea back in 2009, but looking at Israel's record i'm less convinced of it. I think the terrorism game is played out, isn't sustainable and is of dubious benefit to Pakistan. Commitments by LeT or Haqqanis not to attack pakistan do not guarantee they do not assist other outfits that target Pakistan. Having snakes in the backyard does not mean they bite only the neighbours. So the PA is at a point where they have to make a call or closer to it than earlier. Why mess with that thinking by complicating it further.

here is a state that has been obssesed with security for the last six decades. Well how safe is pakistan after all these efforts. Should be the safest place on the planet but it isn't.

Blademaster
10 Feb 15,, 00:12
India's relative size and strength wrt unfriendly (Pakistan) or potentially unfriendly (China) states is far less than Israel's relative strength wrt Palestine. It does not compare at all

So? you are just proving my point that india's situation is not similar to Israel. so where are you going with this? An advocation that India just sit by and do nothing and just mouth off? Why am I not surprised?

Blademaster
10 Feb 15,, 00:12
Sure, there's lots of things in there but i'm referring to terrorism which they've faced longer than we have.


Israel's terrorist opponents are much smaller.

My point is they've been in the whacking and we mean business game for long time. it buys them a reprieve before the cycle restarts. How much different then is the outcome vis a vis us who you charge with not setting a good example ie our restraint thus far is a liability.

What you suggest is what seemed like a good idea back in 2009, but looking at Israel's record i'm less convinced of it. I think the terrorism game is played out and isn't sustainable and is of dubious benefit to Pakistan. Commitments by LeT or Haqqanis not to attack pakistan do not guarantee they do not assist other outfits that target Pakistan. Having snakes in the backyard does not mean they bite only the neighbours. So the PA is at a point where they have to make a call or closer to it than earlier. Why mess with that thinking by complicating it further.

So you want to be passive? That's your cup of tea but it ain't mine.

antimony
10 Feb 15,, 01:24
So? you are just proving my point that india's situation is not similar to Israel. so where are you going with this? An advocation that India just sit by and do nothing and just mouth off? Why am I not surprised?

WTF?

You got that from my post? Yes India is different from Israel, we do not have the option of physically blockading our enemies like Israel does. Things are much more difficult for us and our tactics and strategies need to be different. Also, why do you feel the need to blow your top off periodically ?:slap::confused:

Blademaster
10 Feb 15,, 08:00
WTF?

You got that from my post? Yes India is different from Israel, we do not have the option of physically blockading our enemies like Israel does. Things are much more difficult for us and our tactics and strategies need to be different. Also, why do you feel the need to blow your top off periodically ?:slap::confused:

:slap: why do you think that when I am advocating a stronger response, I am blowing off my top? :confused: I am not advocating Israelis tactics. I am advocating forceful indian tactics and responses. It worked very well in 1971 war and the 1965 war and even the Kargil War.

I really don't get your penchant for dismissing arguments of more forceful responses as blowing off your top. Why do you feel the need that you have to be meek and keep your head down as a way of trying to keep the lid on or the pot from boiling and mock those who advocate a different response as being loose cannons and try to silence them in the process?

Double Edge
10 Feb 15,, 09:18
So you want to be passive? That's your cup of tea but it ain't mine.
What you're saying is predicated on whether something happens in the future or not ?

if something happens that gets people annoyed then given the mood and expectations Modi built up ie that pride thing. Too passive before and have to be less now. We will be more predictable. There will be a reaction.

if nothing happens then stirring the pot for something that happened over six years ago achieves what ? given we've not had a spectacular attack since and in general attacks on civilian population are down. We don't do anything and let them sort out their mess.

lemontree
10 Feb 15,, 12:04
I used to think that but now i think the MHA is doing the Pak people a favour. They must not stop demanding his conviction.

conviction rates for terrorism in pakistan are 3%. 70-80% of criminal cases are acquitted.

Forget about terrorists, the Pakistani FIA does not even dare take action against fake medicine dealers. The situation is pathetic out there.

lemontree
10 Feb 15,, 12:10
How well does this policy work for Israel ?

It works very well, indeed:
- After Entebbe the entire moral of the Israeli population was sky high and world was shown how to deal with terrorists.
- After Munich, they went after the perpetrators.

The point BM is making is that no Israeli enemy is safe from them, while our enemies are safe and sound from us.

Duellist
10 Feb 15,, 19:36
The key difference between India and Israel is the lack of willpower- and not necessarily in security matters alone. Clandestine sub-conventional action can have a significantly debilitating impact on terrorist networks, boost national moral and have a deterrent effect. Furthermore such action will not trigger off a nuclear escalation crisis. It's a cost effective method of countering terrorism; time will tell if the Modi government really is a new paradigm in this regard.

antimony
10 Feb 15,, 19:43
:slap: why do you think that when I am advocating a stronger response, I am blowing off my top? :confused: I am not advocating Israelis tactics. I am advocating forceful indian tactics and responses. It worked very well in 1971 war and the 1965 war and even the Kargil War.


Ok, please specify what you are trying to achieve. A separate Baluchistan? A separate Pashtunistan? Another Op Parakram? I am a bit unclear on what "forceful indian tactics" mean



I really don't get your penchant for dismissing arguments of more forceful responses as blowing off your top. Why do you feel the need that you have to be meek and keep your head down as a way of trying to keep the lid on or the pot from boiling and mock those who advocate a different response as being loose cannons and try to silence them in the process?

If you think that's the way I feel you obviously have not been reading my posts

Double Edge
11 Feb 15,, 01:32
It works very well, indeed:
- After Entebbe the entire moral of the Israeli population was sky high and world was shown how to deal with terrorists.
- After Munich, they went after the perpetrators.

The point BM is making is that no Israeli enemy is safe from them, while our enemies are safe and sound from us.
Can you explain these (http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/foreignpolicy/terrorism/palestinian/pages/victims%20of%20palestinian%20violence%20and%20terr orism%20sinc.aspx) figures ? the israeli answer i suppose is it would be higher otherwise.

Had started a thread (http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/middle-east-north-africa/58476-israels-success-record-terrorism.html) a while back.



Another Op Parakram?
we tried to make it expensive for them and it turned out expensive to do. But it had a feel good factor so it was ok.


I am a bit unclear on what "forceful indian tactics" mean
Whatever Doval can cook up. he's got a freer hand than his predecessor. That is the theory.

lemontree
11 Feb 15,, 11:12
Can you explain these (http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/foreignpolicy/terrorism/palestinian/pages/victims%20of%20palestinian%20violence%20and%20terr orism%20sinc.aspx) figures ? the israeli answer i suppose is it would be higher otherwise.
You are looking at things in isolation, you have to see the overall picture and the benefits of their policy.
One cannot give a one liner to your point, it would need a proper essay.


we tried to make it expensive for them and it turned out expensive to do. But it had a feel good factor so it was ok.

No my friend, Op Parakram was a case of lost nerves.
As far as the army was concerned, the govt of the day had chickened out.


Whatever Doval can cook up. he's got a freer hand than his predecessor. That is the theory.
Only time will tell.

antimony
11 Feb 15,, 18:38
No my friend, Op Parakram was a case of lost nerves.
As far as the army was concerned, the govt of the day had chickened out.


I agree, if a reckoning was to be done, that was the day. since we backtracked, we cannot reuse that strategy now

Double Edge
11 Feb 15,, 23:59
You are looking at things in isolation, you have to see the overall picture and the benefits of their policy.
One cannot give a one liner to your point, it would need a proper essay.
Its a simplistic way of looking at it. But i like casualty numbers as they give a yard stick to the benefits of policy or severity of an attack. if people are getting whacked regularly then what does it say about your policy.

You advocate taking out one king snake when there are any number of others crawling around and biting more people in Pakistan than in India. Maybe we'd be doing them a favour. Like the 3k+ drone strikes did for FATA. Think about that 3k+ number. It implies repetition. One hit isn't enough, have to be able to sustain it as replacements come in. can we keep it up, no. I doubt it. This is why we don't do it.

Terrorism in FATA, Baloch or sind is an unfortunate event, if it happens in Punjab then its unacceptable. Attacks in Punjab galvanise public opinion in favour of going after terrorists.


One cannot give a one liner to your point, it would need a proper essay.
Try.

Another similarity with Hamas is if Hamas gives up the armed option then they are finished, similar to PA making peace with India is tantamount to surrender. So Hamas keeps up its attacks on israel from a tactical pov but it gets them no where. PA is in the same quandary.


No my friend, Op Parakram was a case of lost nerves.
As far as the army was concerned, the govt of the day had chickened out.
Vajpayee has to go through fire in his time, never a dull moment. His successors have it much easier.

Blademaster
12 Feb 15,, 16:41
Ok, please specify what you are trying to achieve. A separate Baluchistan? A separate Pashtunistan? Another Op Parakram? I am a bit unclear on what "forceful indian tactics" mean



If you think that's the way I feel you obviously have not been reading my posts

And you haven't been reading mine but relying on other posts. What I am saying is that you have to take the fight to the enemy, not fighting the battle in a place and time of your enemy's choosing. You are allowing the enemy to dictate the battle. A big rule in any kind of warfare is never allow the enemy to dictate the nature, place, and time of battle. Because if you do, you are surrendering the momentum to the enemy. This is not rocket science. You don't need to engage in intellectual exercises to figure this one out.

Double Edge
12 Feb 15,, 17:39
What I am saying is that you have to take the fight to the enemy, not fighting the battle in a place and time of your enemy's choosing.

You are allowing the enemy to dictate the battle.

A big rule in any kind of warfare is never allow the enemy to dictate the nature, place, and time of battle. Because if you do, you are surrendering the momentum to the enemy. This is not rocket science. You don't need to engage in intellectual exercises to figure this one out.
But being reactive is the same thing. PA dictates the tenor of the relationship either way. If we go on the offensive or pre-emptive then we also play into their hands. This one comes with politcal costs as well as others for similar returns.

Not reacting like last time showed we would not jump when told to. Won't work again.

Then we cut off the foreign secretary talks with hurriyat. Different rules. They did not expect that. Trying to claw back some advantage because right now we're not even in a position to talk let alone anything more.

commander
12 Feb 15,, 18:01
The key difference between India and Israel is the lack of willpower- and not necessarily in security matters alone. Clandestine sub-conventional action can have a significantly debilitating impact on terrorist networks, boost national moral and have a deterrent effect. Furthermore such action will not trigger off a nuclear escalation crisis. It's a cost effective method of countering terrorism; time will tell if the Modi government really is a new paradigm in this regard.

THIS.

IMO we can never avoid terror attacks as long as PA is the dictator of rules in Pakistan. But we should behind the screens take out the heads of operations silently but brutally thus striking fear in the minds that anyone who wants to plan such an attack on India will not be spared at any cost. But it shouldn't be publicised and let PA use that publicity against us. Read an interesting bit recently coming from both Indian and US officials and from the general vibe,


‘Modi may use military option if terror attack traced to Pak’ : Former US diplomat (http://idrw.org/archives/57615)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to use the military option if the next terrorist attack in India is traced back to Pakistan, a former top US diplomat has warned while hoping that the Pakistanis would understand that their past behaviour is unlikely to be tolerated now.

“Every Indian Prime Minister since the attack on the Parliament in Delhi now heading on 15 years ago has looked seriously at a military response when these incidents occur and has stepped back. But I believe that sentiment inside India has changed substantially and I think this Prime Minister is unlikely to step back,” former US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill said.

“If there is a major terrorist attack whose breadcrumbs lead to Pakistan and the Pakistan military and ISI, I think that this Prime Minister is likely to use military force against Pakistan territory. It’s not a certainty,” Blackwill told reporters during a conference call organised by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a top American think-tank.

Blackwill, who is a close watcher of India and South Asia, said Modi’s predecessors have been briefed by the Indian military on options and have never found them attractive.

“But I think Modi, both as a personality and reflecting Indian public opinion and political sentiment across the society will be much more likely to use military force than his predecessors,” he said.

“Now how that might be applied is another matter. To try to diminish the likelihood of escalation between two nuclear weapon states, but hopefully the Pakistanis understand that their behaviour in the past is unlikely to be tolerable to this Indian Prime Minister,” Blackwill said in response to a question.

Stephen Cohen, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institute, agreed that Prime Minister Modi’s response to a terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan would be a different one than that of his predecessor.

“I think based on what he (Modi) said and I think based on the Indian public sentiment, if there was another Mumbai attack, which I don’t think it’s going to be that likely, it (India’s response) may be something quite different. There will be a vigorous Indian response. Perhaps even direct attacks on Pakistani territory, hitting camps,” Cohen said.




India will react sharply if another incident like 26/11 occurs: Security expert (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-india-will-react-sharply-if-another-incident-like-2611-occurs-security-expert-2041318)

Security expert Sushant Sareen on Friday said that the role of the Pakistani Army cannot be ignored in connection with the ongoing attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, adding New Delhi's reaction will be severe if another incident like the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks takes place.

"The [role of the] Pakistani army cannot be ignored from what has happened in the last couple of days in J-K. They are aware that if another incident like 26/11 takes place in India, then the reaction from New Delhi will be extremely severe and there will be no restraining hand," Sareen told ANI.

Sareen was reacting to the four terror attacks that hit Jammu and Kashmir, a state which is in the midst of its five-phase state assembly elections.

Sareen further alleged that the attacks have taken place in order to challenge the legitimacy of the enthusiastic response the people of Jammu and Kashmir have given to the democratic process.

"The kind of turnouts which were there in the J-K elections has spooked the Pakistanis, who were probably not expecting this kind of massive turnout in the elections. Over a period of time, we have seen that after the first phase of assembly election, there has been steady racketing up of violence and the attack in the Uri sector was a part of this violence, essentially to sabotage these elections and to ensure that people don't come out and vote in the next three phases," he said.

Confident that the Indian army would have a measured response to the acts of violence, Sareen stated that the security forces would not carry our reprisal attacks against unarmed civilians.

"The Indian army will have a measured response. Along with the rest of the security forces, they will carry out operations against suspected bases or establishments of the terrorists. The Indian army will not carry out reprisal attacks against unarmed civilians in J-K," he said.

Earlier in the day, Chief of Army Staff, General Dalbir Singh Suhag, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to brief him on the terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. According to reports, General Suhag briefed Prime Minister Modi about the ongoing situation and the army's preparedness for similar challenges ahead.

antimony
12 Feb 15,, 20:50
And you haven't been reading mine but relying on other posts. What I am saying is that you have to take the fight to the enemy, not fighting the battle in a place and time of your enemy's choosing. You are allowing the enemy to dictate the battle. A big rule in any kind of warfare is never allow the enemy to dictate the nature, place, and time of battle. Because if you do, you are surrendering the momentum to the enemy. This is not rocket science. You don't need to engage in intellectual exercises to figure this one out.

Yes, yes, all that is fine. The thing that confuses me are the sudden personal attacks. Lets not do that, we are adults here

Double Edge
13 Feb 15,, 00:42
IMO we can never avoid terror attacks as long as PA is the dictator of rules in Pakistan. But we should behind the screens take out the heads of operations silently but brutally thus striking fear in the minds that anyone who wants to plan such an attack on India will not be spared at any cost. But it shouldn't be publicised and let PA use that publicity against us.
Right, and the next bunch of snakes takes over and requires less to create a national outrage.

What is the difference between India & israel. israel can show its people they are doing something. we complain we are not doing anything.

RESULTS ? what are they. People still getting whacked in israel. Fewer. How are we doing in this space since 26/11. A lot better than 2004-2008 isn't it. how is this possible by not doing anything. I cannot figure it out.


Read an interesting bit recently coming from both Indian and US officials and from the general vibe,
read quite a few of these. means we are easy to bait.

but the bigger question is why talk about it at all. Just do it. Can't know until something happens.

Blademaster
13 Feb 15,, 08:35
Yes, yes, all that is fine. The thing that confuses me are the sudden personal attacks. Lets not do that, we are adults here

Personal attacks? :rolleyes: Riiiight.....

antimony
13 Feb 15,, 23:43
Personal attacks? :rolleyes: Riiiight.....

Not sure why you are doing the eye rolling


So? An advocation that India just sit by and do nothing and just mouth off? Why am I not surprised?

So you want to be passive? That's your cup of tea but it ain't mine.

Blademaster
13 Feb 15,, 23:59
Not sure why you are doing the eye rolling

Those are not personal attacks. :slap: I am surprised that you would characterize them as personal attacks. How could they be ever considered as personal attacks. Your reasoning seems incomprehensible to me.

antimony
14 Feb 15,, 01:34
Those are not personal attacks. :slap: I am surprised that you would characterize them as personal attacks. How could they be ever considered as personal attacks. Your reasoning seems incomprehensible to me.

Blade

you are assuming stuff about people, that I am willing to do nothing and mouth off and that DE is passive. That is personal. When we debate I try not to attack you or anyone else on a personal basis

kuku
14 Feb 15,, 07:37
Right, and the next bunch of snakes takes over and requires less to create a national outrage.
What is the difference between India & israel. israel can show its people they are doing something. we complain we are not doing anything.

RESULTS ? what are they. People still getting whacked in israel. Fewer. How are we doing in this space since 26/11. A lot better than 2004-2008 isn't it. how is this possible by not doing anything. I cannot figure it out.
read quite a few of these. means we are easy to bait.

but the bigger question is why talk about it at all. Just do it. Can't know until something happens.
The difference is that Israelis never let their sworn enemies get nuclear weapons, we did (our leadership being without balls or brains, and too busy looting the nation dry did not have time to think of such issues).

We can not convince the PA to stop its terror campaign against India, as we speak there are recruitment and donation facilities being run by the LeT, JeM, HM all across Pakistan, they are not going to stop, they will keep trying to kill Indians, we will never be able to stop them at the border.

Even after resolving the Kashmir situation we will have a enemy that will not stop. Militant Islamic Thought has dug its claws in Pakistan, and it will not go away in our lifetimes, hopefully we are able to keep Indian Muslims steer clear of this school of though, this is a war of an ideology against India (not a war of ideologies).

bolo121
14 Feb 15,, 10:03
We lost the ability to end this militarily the first time a Pakistani reactor went critical.
We can bomb them and blast away at the border and even expand RAW and actually start doing the dirty tricks that pakistan thinks we do anyway.
It wont change a single thing, the PA and ISI will keep sending jihadists and our people will keep dying.

If suppose we manage to handle our deniable assets better than them and avoid blowback, what would happen in the end?
PA and ISI would get even more support from the people for their India the existential threat narrative. If somehow we were super brilliant and destabilised the country, we find ourselves in a even worse situation.
A heavily armed nuclear power with its bureaucracy and army no longer able to ensure reliable control over them.
It would speed up the inevitable date when one of them ends up in the wrong hands.
After that, everybody loses.

So in practical terms we are reduced to tit for tat. You triggered a blast, I will fire over the border or try to kill the controller in Pakistan.

China is laughing all the way to the bank while we chase our own tails. The proto hegemon will become a real regional hegemon.

Double Edge
14 Feb 15,, 11:14
We can not convince the PA to stop its terror campaign against India, as we speak there are recruitment and donation facilities being run by the LeT, JeM, HM all across Pakistan, they are not going to stop, they will keep trying to kill Indians, we will never be able to stop them at the border.
Why have terrorist attacks reduced significantly since 26/11 ?

Who and what is responsible. if as you say they won't stop and we can't stop them.


China is laughing all the way to the bank while we chase our own tails. The proto hegemon will become a real regional hegemon.
Most dangerous place in the world for a Chinese worker to be is in Pakistan.

China ambassador got on the hit list after lal masjid.

Not laughing matters.

China would prefer the sort of stable relationship that India has with China to exist between India & Pakistan. No need to rush for reconciliation. just stable.

Imagine Indian & Pak soldiers showing signs instead of bullets at each other on the border (!)

This is the kind of solution that comes about when you let the fighting people of both sides talk to each other.

They don't want to be aggressive because their asses will be the first to get shot :biggrin:

can't help thinking those whose job is to think through these issues for a living are a few steps way ahead of us

bolo121
14 Feb 15,, 12:21
China would prefer the sort of stable relationship that India has with China to exist between India & Pakistan. No need to rush for reconciliation. just stable.

I'm sorry this is just wishful thinking. China, both her people and the leadership have a deep rooted sense of grievance about their place in the world. What they want more than anything is to rise one more to prominence. The middle kingdom triumphant, the foreign barbarians suitably obsequious and paying tribute.
Before she can dominate the world she has to first be the undisputed master both economically and militarily of her near abroad in particular and Asia in general.
The only rival power however smaller is us. Pakistan is a cheap and cost effective way to keep us occupied. There is some minor blowback in the shape of terrorists in Xinjiang but so far tolerable.

Double Edge
14 Feb 15,, 14:40
I'm sorry this is just wishful thinking.
China was right behind the US in getting the Paks to pull back from Kargil.

My source for previous statements by the way is this guy (http://www.andrewsmall.org/).


China, both her people and the leadership have a deep rooted sense of grievance about their place in the world. What they want more than anything is to rise one more to prominence. The middle kingdom triumphant, the foreign barbarians suitably obsequious and paying tribute.
Biggest trading partner with neighbouring countries including the US. best in the world at the reform business means chances are good of continuing their present trajectory.


Before she can dominate the world she has to first be the undisputed master both economically and militarily of her near abroad in particular and Asia in general.
Then the US must pull out of the region or strike a deal.


The only rival power however smaller is us. Pakistan is a cheap and cost effective way to keep us occupied. There is some minor blowback in the shape of terrorists in Xinjiang but so far tolerable.
The only reason we are 'occupied' is due to our inability to settle longstanding issues with our neighbours. The Chinese gave up in 2005 of doing any meaningful business over the boundary dispute. They are however more excited with the new administration. Stronger leaders are in a better chance to deliver.

problem ? nawaz isn't a strong leader. he cant even deliver to his own people. What to do ? hope for another coup in pakistan and a general with more vision than Musharaf (!)

bolo121
14 Feb 15,, 15:07
China was right behind the US in getting the Paks to pull back from Kargil.

My source for previous statements by the way is this guy (http://www.andrewsmall.org/).


The book looks interesting, will try to get it the next time i can salvage some spare cash
I think this does not invalidate my argument. China wanted their useful tool intact and undamaged. Preventing the conflict from spreading and escalating was in their interest. A slow simmer as compared to full boil.



Biggest trading partner with neighbouring countries including the US. best in the world at the reform business means chances are good of continuing their present trajectory.
Those same neighbours have started feeling the heat. Witness for example Vietnam's oil rig travails.
After all, even the belligerents of 1914 were great trade partners.



Then the US must pull out of the region or strike a deal.

This is the reason behind the anti access strategy that they have been pursuing for years which more knowledgeable heads at wab have been discussing.
They just need to push slowly and wait, America's slow decline is continuing unchecked. We can see the symptoms in how the USN has to budget and spend so carefully nowadays.



The only reason we are 'occupied' is due to our inability to settle longstanding issues with our neighbours. The Chinese gave up in 2005 of doing any meaningful business over the boundary dispute. They are however more excited with the new administration. Stronger leaders are in a better chance to deliver.

Our dispute with pakistan will continue as long as PA and ISI call the shots there. WRT the dispute with china, yes it would be great if we could reach some reasonabe agreement but i wouldnt hold my breath.



problem ? nawaz isn't a strong leader. he cant even deliver to his own people. What to do ? hope for another coup in pakistan and a general with more vision than Musharaf (!)
Nawaz or whoever will replace him does not matter, Pakistan's civilian govt is just cosmetic. The PA calls the shots and they needs us as an enemy to keep power.

Double Edge
14 Feb 15,, 17:08
Because Nawaz reinstated the death penalty for convicted terrorists (so that their budies don't break them out) and then execute one convicted terrorist, TTP launches attacks on a shia mosque. Its the second in two weeks. See where it happens, KP & Sindh. Punjab is safe (for now). The good Taliban keep Punjab safe. Best to fight the bad guys on their own territory and run them out.

Taliban storm Pakistan Shiite mosque, killing at least 20 | AFP | Feb 13 2015 (http://news.yahoo.com/explosions-militants-attack-shiite-mosque-pakistan-092649104.html)

By Lehaz Ali

Peshawar (Pakistan) (AFP) - Heavily armed militants stormed a Shiite mosque in Pakistan Friday, killing at least 20 people in an attack claimed by the Taliban as revenge for the execution of one of their cadres.

Three attackers with grenades, Kalashnikovs and explosive suicide vests struck at the Imamia mosque in Peshawar, the main city in Pakistan's restive northwest, around the time of the main Friday prayers.

The attack comes two weeks after a suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque in southern Pakistan killed 61 people, the deadliest sectarian incident to hit the country in nearly two years.

Nasir Durrani, the police chief of northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of which Peshawar is the capital, told AFP that at least 20 people were killed and 45 others were wounded.

Durrani said that three attackers were also killed in the attack.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack in an email statement, saying it was revenge for a militant known as Doctor Usman, who was hanged in December.

"This is a series of taking blood for blood, which will continue. The government should expect more and even harder responses," the statement said.

Police said the attack began when the militants entered from a nearby building site, cutting barbed wire to get into the mosque compound.

"One suicide bomber exploded himself in the verandah of the mosque while another was shot dead by police inside the main hall," Durrani said.

"The third was caught by people but was also killed later on."

Eyewitness Mohammad Khalil told AFP a "huge explosion" shook the main hall of the mosque as prayers were coming to an end, and then the gunmen started firing on worshippers.

- Crackdown on militants -

TV footage in the immediate aftermath showed people running away from the scene, some carrying injured on their shoulders, others limping, as police fired shots and checked people at a barrier.

The mosque is close to several government buildings including the offices of the Federal Investigation Agency and passport agency.

Since June last year the army has been waging a major campaign against strongholds of TTP and other militants in the North Waziristan tribal area, which lies close to Peshawar.

The military has heralded the success of the operation, which it says has killed more than 2,000 militants, though the precise number and identity of those killed cannot be verified independently.

The country has stepped up its fight against militants since Taliban gunmen massacred more than 150 people, most of them children, at a school in Peshawar in December.

On Thursday the military said it had taken 12 Taliban members into custody over the school attack, including the imam of a mosque.

Following the massacre, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ended a six-year moratorium on the death penalty and Doctor Usman, also known as Aqil, was one of the first to go to the gallows.

He was convicted for an attack on the army headquarters in Rawalpindi in 2009 and was arrested after being injured.

Sectarian violence has been on the rise in Pakistan in recent years, most of it perpetrated by hardline Sunni Muslim groups against minority Shiite Muslims, who make up around a fifth of the population.

The suicide bombing at a mosque in southern Sindh province on January 30 was the deadliest sectarian attack in Pakistan since February 2013, when 89 were killed in a market bombing in the southwestern city of Quetta.

Anti-Shiite attacks have been increasing in recent years in Karachi, Quetta, the northwestern area of Parachinar and the far-northeastern town of Gilgit.

Double Edge
14 Feb 15,, 17:23
The book looks interesting, will try to get it the next time i can salvage some spare cash
I think this does not invalidate my argument. China wanted their useful tool intact and undamaged. Preventing the conflict from spreading and escalating was in their interest. A slow simmer as compared to full boil.
Problem with China-Pakistan is very little literature on the subject. This is one attempt to fill the gap on a subject everybody just knows :biggrin:

He gave a talk about the book at carnegie which was a good listen. if you have soundcloud, you can hear the talk on carnegie.

bolo121
14 Feb 15,, 17:36
I think the action to restore the death penalty for these guys was to assuage public feeling after the school attack.
As long as none of their assets are harmed and only 'bad' jehadis who target pakistan are dead the PA will keep quiet.

I have never heard of sound cloud. What does it do?

barangai
14 Feb 15,, 19:26
There is not even an iota of doubt over Indian Involvement in FATA & Baluchistan | DG ISPR General Asim Bajwa


https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152832097167663&set=vb.146828502662&type=2&theater

antimony
14 Feb 15,, 19:46
There is not even an iota of doubt over Indian Involvement in FATA & Baluchistan | DG ISPR General Asim Bajwa


https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152832097167663&set=vb.146828502662&type=2&theater

Why? Because the head honcho of an organisation used to dealing with falsehoods said so ? Remember Kargil, 26/11, Bin Laden?

At this point, everytime some ISI or PA General opens his mouth, lies tumble out.

Blademaster
14 Feb 15,, 19:51
Blade

you are assuming stuff about people, that I am willing to do nothing and mouth off and that DE is passive. That is personal. When we debate I try not to attack you or anyone else on a personal basis

Oh gawd, I have dealt far worse when I debate with OOE and OOE has used way far stronger language than I did when debating with me. You need to stop being so sensitive. Calling someone passive is not a personal attack, but a commentary on his state of mind and how he respond to threats. Passive versus active

Double Edge
14 Feb 15,, 23:09
Those same neighbours have started feeling the heat. Witness for example Vietnam's oil rig travails.
After all, even the belligerents of 1914 were great trade partners.
My point here is whether we can increase trade with Pakistan despite differences. We do it with China and China in turn does it with others.

'Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' clearly does not apply in this part of the world.


This is the reason behind the anti access strategy that they have been pursuing for years which more knowledgeable heads at wab have been discussing.
They just need to push slowly and wait, America's slow decline is continuing unchecked. We can see the symptoms in how the USN has to budget and spend so carefully nowadays.
And what is their conclusion ? Could be an awfully long wait.

China is more likely to eclipse US GDP than military power any time soon.


WRT the dispute with china, yes it would be great if we could reach some reasonabe agreement but i wouldnt hold my breath.
China offered to settle with us twice. We refused (!)

Chou in 1960 and Deng in 1982. Who was in charge then ? Nehru & Indira. Both strong leaders.

Mao settled his border disputes with the Soviets post US rapprochement. Added confidence.

Vajpayee got the Chinese to recognise Sikkim. So chances are better than they have been.


There is some minor blowback in the shape of terrorists in Xinjiang but so far tolerable.
Yes, until they got hit in Kunming and Beijing. Where next ? There is spillover. how could this happen.

Heard in a talk that TTP targets pashtuns rather than punjabis. i found this a rather curious statement. can anybody shed more light ?


I have never heard of sound cloud. What does it do?
Streams music or audio. This is for mobile devices. Just noticed they also use podcast feeds so you could find it with a podcast app eg podcast addict. audio only.

i don't listen to these long talks at a pc.

kuku
15 Feb 15,, 15:23
Could be good luck that attacks are down could be intensive patrolling that the attacks are down in that time period.

Officer of Engineers
16 Feb 15,, 04:02
Oh gawd, I have dealt far worse when I debate with OOE and OOE has used way far stronger language than I did when debating with me.Not fair, you freaking asshole. We have 20+ years together. Language ain't going to kill our friendship.

Oracle
16 Feb 15,, 19:12
In the interview, Musharraf admitted that during his tenure as the head of state, Pakistan had tried to undermine the government of former Afghan president Hamid Karzai because Karzai had helped "India stab Pakistan in the back".

Read more @ here (http://www.dawn.com/news/1163376).

Blademaster
16 Feb 15,, 23:18
Not fair, you freaking asshole. We have 20+ years together. Language ain't going to kill our friendship.

True but if I introduce you to the girl of your dream, you closeted Chez Mado admirer, our friendship will only get stronger. :biggrin:

Double Edge
17 Feb 15,, 01:34
Came out a week back. Track 2 dialog at work. Hopefully something positive comes out of this. Time for a different approach.

Post-Peshawar is a different ballgame in Pak: Durrani | Hindu | Feb 06 2015 (http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/interview/interview-with-former-pakistan-nsa-general-mahmud-durrani-in-new-delhi/article6861578.ece)

Interview with Former Pakistan NSA General Mahmud Durrani

Former Pakistan NSA General Mahmud Durrani also called “General Shanti” for his role in backchannel talks denies that his meeting with NSA Ajit Doval were in any official capacity, but he is hopeful talks can be restarted now. He spoke to Diplomatic Editor Suhasini Haidar.

You have been in Delhi, meeting several officials, amidst speculation that India-Pakistan talks could be given another push in the near future. How hopeful are you that they may be restarted?

Quite honestly , when I left Pakistan, I was quite unhappy, because everyone here blamed the Pakistan for the border incidents, and Pakistan denies it. You know, the truth is always lost in these border skirmishes, so I was not very hopeful, but I still wanted to come here and speak to people here, and get a real feel. But after visiting Delhi, meeting officials, mostly non-officials, I am a little more optimistic, that this is a moment India and Pakistan need to cash on. We can restart some kind of dialogue.

Specifically, what was your impression when you met NSA Ajit Doval?

I am not even saying I met him. I am not saying I did or not. I’m making no comment.

You said you were less hopeful of a dialogue with India when you were in Pakistan. Why is that?

The reality is that the perceptions about Modi in Pakistan were very negative, he is seen as anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan. After meeting people here, I think this is not correct. The impression I get is that he would like to move forward. What I see is that he is a man of action. He wants to do things, but in his own way. So another thing I learnt is we shouldn’t try and pick up things from our old talks, and try and push that through, because that might not work.

So not the composite dialogue?

Yes something like composite dialogue, and strategic balance are just buzzwords we have created over the years, that may not work. Modi is a different man with a different mind, and a different thinking from the previous Prime Minister. I think he will probably engage with Pakistan. And the impression I get is he would like to do that, but in his own way.

Apart from the firing at the border, the one thing that has held back talks with Pakistan is the public way the Mumbai mastermind Hafiz Saeed operates, addressing rallies etc. Can there ever be a change in Pakistan’s policy on him?

First thing I am 110% sure that the government of Pakistan and the establishment is not supporting him any which way. He is doing it on his own. Technically from what I am told, we don’t have a case against him, that he is a terrorist. He heads Jamaat ud Dawa that is a welfare organisation. But what I gather is that the government is trying hard to muzzle him.

In what way? Because we see him coming out and holding rallies, there don’t seem to be any restrictions on him. When you say there is no case against him, surely the fact that besides India, he and the JuD are designated terrorist entities by both the US and the UN as well, should count for something? Shouldn’t it mean something for the Pakistan government, especially post-Peshawar?

Yes, and Post-Peshawar is a different ballgame in Pakistan, and I think you will see a difference. Because it isn’t like you can turn on an electric switch and you will see a change in a few hours. But I am convinced that you will see a difference.

How does the Pakistani army feel about the possibility of talks? Because in India it is believed that it is the military that derails talks.

I am convinced that the Pakistan military would support talks with India. They feel that talks must be fair, they must be dignified. I mean don’t rub our noses in the ground and expect us to cooperate. It won’t work. But other than that, I think the Pakistani army is supportive of talks, they want the political leadership to lead those talks and they will in their own way contribute to them.

And would Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif today have the political clout to pick up the threads of dialogue today, and to carry it forward?

I think that he has a desire. Benazir had a desire. Zardari had a desire. The political leadership in Pakistan has wanted better relations with India. I think he can deliver but particularly when the military establishment is supporting him.

How do the Army and Pakistan see the closeness between India and the US that has emerged especially after President Obama’s visit?

Well I think mostly in Pakistan they worry about the nuclear deal, that somehow it will free up nuclear material for the production of weapons. So they see that as an indirect threat. But I think improved relations between India and the US were expected, on the cards. In the current geostrategic environment, to me they look like natural partners. We have a relationship with the US that goes on its own trajectory and its own velocity. Similiarly, the US-India relationship is going along with its own trajectory.