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  • BJP puts 'no first use' nuclear policy in doubt

    Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), widely tipped to form the next government, pledged on Monday to revise the India's nuclear doctrine, whose central principle is that New Delhi would not be first to use atomic weapons in a conflict.
    Unveiling its election manifesto, the party gave no details, but sources involved in drafting the document said the "no-first-use" policy introduced after India conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998 would be reconsidered.
    Arch-rival Pakistan, which responded within weeks that year by conducting tests of its own, does not profess "no first use".


    The BJP, which was in power at the time of underground blasts, appears to be on the cusp of returning to government under the leadership of Narendra Modi, many expect would adopt a muscular foreign policy.
    The BJP made no mention of reviewing nuclear policy in its manifesto for the previous elections in 2009.
    Opinion polls have consistently shown that the BJP will emerge as the biggest party in the lok sabha elections that began today. They suggest that, while the party is likely to fall short of the majority needed to rule on its own, it would have the best chance to form a coalition government.
    Two aides to Modi told Reuters in the run-up to the vote that if he becomes prime minister, India would get tougher in territorial disputes with China and more robust with Pakistan over attacks by Islamist militants based there.
    In its manifesto, the party said it would seek friendly relations with neighbours, but - without naming any country - vowed to "deal with cross-border terrorism with a firm hand" and take a "strong stand and steps" when required.
    India adopted a no-first-use policy at a time when it was under pressure from punitive embargoes by Western nations for its nuclear tests, but since then it has been unofficially accepted as a nuclear power.
    The United States struck a deal with New Delhi in 2008 to give it access to civilian nuclear technology as well as finance even while it carried on with its weapon programme.
    The no-first-use policy was based on a premise that India would retaliate so massively against a nuclear strike that an enemy would not contemplate such a move in the first place.
    However, a source who advises the BJP said there has been significant debate in recent years about being bound to the policy given the advances of Pakistan's nuclear capability.
    He said Pakistan's nuclear inventory may have already overtaken that of its neighbour, and it has claimed progress in miniaturisation of weapons for use on the battlefield.
    "Do we need tactical weapons? This issue was never raised and discussed because at the time it was not a concern." said another source involved in drawing up the manifesto.
    "MAD" doctrine
    Murli Manohar Joshi, head of a committee that framed the BJP's nuclear policy, declined to spell out whether no-first-use could be discarded. "Read the manifesto," he told Reuters. "It has to be in sync with geostrategic conditions."
    There was no immediate reaction from the Pakistan government or its military, which controls foreign and defence policy.
    A former Pakistani national security adviser, retired Major-General Mahmud Ali Durrani, said he would not be concerned if India revised the central tenet of its nuclear doctrine.
    "I don't think it will be of great consequence," he said. "The nuclear doctrine here is MAD (mutually assured destruction). If one side does it, the other side has enough to cause unacceptable damage in response."
    Durrani said there was more concern in Pakistan about the "overall attitude" of Modi, who was chief minister of Gujarat in 2002 when more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were slaughtered in mob violence.
    Modi has always vehemently denied that he allowed, or even encouraged, the bloodshed, driven by a Hindu nationalist agenda, and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him.
    The BJP manifesto set out its Hindu nationalist leanings, with a vow to explore building a Ram temple at the site of the Babri masjid in Ayodhya, potentially putting a deeply controversial issue back into play.
    "There's a religious right in the BJP so they want to acknowledge that without making it the centrepiece of the manifesto," said Ashok Malik, a political columnist. "I don't think the BJP is going to take it forward as a political movement."
    The party also made a commitment to withdrawing a special autonomous status accorded to Jammu and Kashmir, which many believe prolongs ambiguity over the status of a territory claimed by Pakistan.
    It added that it would aim for the return of Hindus who left Kashmir when the region was roiled by an Islamist insurgency.
    Source:
    BJP puts 'no first use' nuclear policy in doubt - Hindustan Times


    What do you guys think ? How will this all playout either for Good or Bad for India ?

    Update: And we got a response - well technically nothing but yes a response,

    No comments on BJP’s manifesto promising nuclear doctrine: US | The Indian Express

    “We… are not going to comment on a platform of a party running for office on ongoing elections. But nothing has changed about our view,” State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters yesterday.
    Last edited by commander; 08 Apr 14,, 06:31.

  • #2
    It's better to hit first than take one when confronting rogue nations. I'm all for controlled aggression. All in all, I have read the manifesto, and I like it. Will be voting for the BJP this time.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Oracle View Post
      It's better to hit first than take one when confronting rogue nations. I'm all for controlled aggression. All in all, I have read the manifesto, and I like it. Will be voting for the BJP this time.
      Same goes for me. I have been neutral about Modi for quite sometime and never been a fan nor a critic. But I am all in for a tough leader who can lead changes and take tough stances. My entire family is going to vote for Modi.
      Last edited by commander; 08 Apr 14,, 06:34. Reason: typo

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      • #4
        I'm voting for Modi too. With our without a manifesto.

        Comment


        • #5
          All gas - the BJP will do nothing as they will be in a coalition.
          They shall be just as incompetent if not worse than the Congress.

          Cheers!...on the rocks!!

          Comment


          • #6
            All gas LT.

            No one can be as incompetent or corrupt as the Congress.

            Please vote for Modi. Don't dilute the mandate he needs to do something for us.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by lemontree View Post
              All gas - the BJP will do nothing as they will be in a coalition.
              They shall be just as incompetent if not worse than the Congress.
              Oh ye of little faith....

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                All gas - the BJP will do nothing as they will be in a coalition.
                In this instance, I agree. It's empty rhetoric. We've gone through all the military angles of these and NFU remains the primary doctrine of the smaller nuclear powers. Simply put, the arsenals are way too small for anything else.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  In this instance, I agree. It's empty rhetoric. We've gone through all the military angles of these and NFU remains the primary doctrine of the smaller nuclear powers. Simply put, the arsenals are way too small for anything else.
                  BJP came up with NFU. Congress was content with the unverified status as a nuclear power.

                  LT,

                  BJP can do a lot better than Congress with its own, AK Antony as the DM and we saw how that turned out. One of India's best defense minister served under BJP so there's no reason why BJP can't do it again.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                    BJP came up with NFU. Congress was content with the unverified status as a nuclear power.
                    It's an appeal to the gung ho crowd. The simple fact is that without a counter-force arsenal, any nuclear strike will invite a 100% full counter-value reprisal. Getting rid of NFU is not going to reduce this threat one single bit. Ironically, keeping NFU actually reduces this threat.

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                    • #11
                      I have voted twice for BJP, but they are as big cowards as anyone else. They are good for the small minded enthu crowd, with meaningless gestures such as publicizing the nuke tests, and are in effectual in cases of actual crises (Kandahar, Kargil, 2001 Parliament attacks).

                      Another meaningless gesture from an empty head.

                      Having said, I hope Modi comes to power, but with the help of an alliance. We really need some boost in the economy.
                      "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by antimony View Post
                        I have voted twice for BJP, but they are as big cowards as anyone else. They are good for the small minded enthu crowd, with meaningless gestures such as publicizing the nuke tests, and are in effectual in cases of actual crises (Kandahar, Kargil, 2001 Parliament attacks).

                        Another meaningless gesture from an empty head.

                        Having said, I hope Modi comes to power, but with the help of an alliance. We really need some boost in the economy.
                        To be fair Congress are also equally if not more inept.
                        From my own reading and other previous nuke related threads here, it is just like OOE put it.
                        For a small nuke power NFU is the only game in town.
                        For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Just to clarify my stand on post # 2 - hitting an enemy first (with cruise missiles) before they hit us with nukes is my idea of controlled aggression. Whether the objectives can be met is another topic. In no way did I mean the BJP is capable of doing that. My vote to BJP will go for the many other points in their election manifesto about infrastructure, FDI, job creation etc. There is a fringe crowd in every community that rides on rhetoric - NFU, Ram Janmabhoomi etc is for them.
                          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Over the past few years, either its because things have really cooled down with regard to Pakistan/in-house Jihadist activity and cross border Chinese tensions (baring the Ladakh standoff) or maybe its because its a case of the human mind being able to cope with and process only so much when dipped in shit creek, but currently I guess if you poll most Indians, across socioeconomic strata, the thing probably uppermost in most minds will be to vote for someone who can take decisions and can turn around the moribund economy. Money more than blood is currently uppermost in the Indian voters mind. Not that Modi does too badly compared to the opposition in the blood stakes as well .....

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by sated buddha View Post
                              Over the past few years, either its because things have really cooled down with regard to Pakistan/in-house Jihadist activity and cross border Chinese tensions (baring the Ladakh standoff) or maybe its because its a case of the human mind being able to cope with and process only so much when dipped in shit creek, but currently I guess if you poll most Indians, across socioeconomic strata, the thing probably uppermost in most minds will be to vote for someone who can take decisions and can turn around the moribund economy. Money more than blood is currently uppermost in the Indian voters mind. Not that Modi does too badly compared to the opposition in the blood stakes as well .....
                              A good observation. We have become used to the constant low level hum of attack after attack. For all the death and suffering, terror attacks touch only a small number of people directly.

                              Economic distress and high consumer price inflation on the other hand hurts each of us personally.
                              In IT for example average hikes are around 6 to 7% while cpc is always above 10%. Manufacturing is suffering even more.
                              I myself have had to tighten up everything I can to manage the terrible price hikes for the last few years. For the urban poor things are much much worse
                              For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

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