Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Turkey Political Crisis

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Turkey Political Crisis

    Turkish minister says fending off 'mini-coup attempt' | Reuters
    Turkish minister says fending off 'mini-coup attempt'
    Turkey's government said on Tuesday it was fending off a "mini coup attempt" by elements in the police and judiciary who served the interests of foreign and domestic forces bent on humbling the country.

    Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan said the ruling AK Party had in the past survived military coup plots and attempts in the courts to outlaw it. It would not now yield to a corruption investigation that he said targeted the government but was already damaging the national economy.

    "These latest formations in the judiciary and the police, we can't call it a coup, but a mini coup attempt. This is what interests foreign investors," he told broadcaster CNBC-e, echoing suggestions by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan of a foreign interest in the crisis.

    "Maybe the clearest indicator of this was the fall in share prices," added Babacan, who is in charge of the economy.

    The market value of Turkish listed companies had fallen $49 billion by Monday's market close, he said. The main share index was down 1 percent on Tuesday.
    As Babacan was speaking, news emerged of a further resignation from the AK Party. A total of seven MPs have resigned from the AKP since the end of November, five since the December 17 police raids.

    There is, however, no sign of any large-scale abandonment of the party which dominates Turkish politics. Erdogan, playing on his still unrivalled popularity, could even call early elections next year to shore up his position.

    Erdogan has responded to the corruption scandal with the purging of some 70 police investigators and blocked a second wave of investigations. Those targeted some of Erdogan's most ambitious infrastructure projects, including a third Bosphorus bridge and a canal allowing passage from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, easing traffic on the Istanbul Strait.

    Erdogan, whose popularity held up through a summer of protests against what critics call an increasingly authoritarian style of government, has broadened Turkish influence in the Middle East and Africa with a vigorous business drive, led often by construction projects.
    The economic outflow from this.
    Turkey 'takes $100 billion hit' from political turmoil | Business , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR
    Lets just say its' severe. Whats a hundred billion dollars here or there anyways only a fifth of gdp or something.
    Political Turmoil Threatens Turkey's Government, Economy
    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan replaced those ministers this week, along with eight others, but the moves failed to stop calls for his resignation. Indeed, one of the fired ministers said the prime minister should step down, too.

    The government further stoked public anger by firing hundreds of senior police officials involved in the anti-corruption probe, including the Istanbul police chief.

    Erdogan, who has been in office for 12 years, called the police operation “extremely dirty.”

    He said police officers had “abused their authority,” and that the government was within its rights to remove them.
    other interesting things.
    Despite Turkish gov't, Europe praises HSYK - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news
    Market, lira gains reverse as conspiracy theories circulate - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news

    The one below is the most interesting one for me at least I'll quote the part that is intriguing.
    Foreign trade deficit widens to $89.8 bln in first 11 months - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news
    Turkey's foreign trade deficit increased 16.8 percent in the first 11 months of the year compared to same period of the previous year to reach $89.8 billion, according to a report released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) on Tuesday.
    The central bank's foreign reserves totaled $135.068 billion on Dec. 20, but private sector analysts calculate that net reserves -- resources which the central bank could access quickly -- are only around $40 billion. That figure is dwarfed by Turkey's current account deficit (CAD), which covers trade in goods and services; in the first 10 months of this year, the deficit widened to $51.901 billion from $39.553 billion a year earlier.

    Repayments of loans from the government's Eximbank by Turkish exporters this year have helped to compensate for the deficit; total foreign reserves are actually higher now than they were at the end of last year. But foreign exchange data released by a top government official on Tuesday illustrated the risks of any prolonged period of capital outflow.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  • #2
    Just another bubble of the yen and $ carry trade.

    Comment


    • #3
      update
      POLITICS - Government plans to change Turkey's justice system
      The government of Turkey is preparing for yet another extensive restructuring of the judicial system in a bid to escape from a massive graft investigation that has already pushed Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) into the corner.

      The move by the government, which has suggested that it was fending off a “mini coup attempt” by elements in the police and judiciary who served the interests of foreign and domestic forces bent on humbling the country, comes around three years after a referendum which brought significant changes to the judicial system, that’s to say the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), the Supreme Court of Appeals and the Council of State.

      The modification of those key bodies was carried out within the context of Turkish constitutional reforms that were approved in a referendum in September 2010.
      They have elections in March (40 days left to recess according to article)
      I have this thought that they just lost them. Attempting to carry out a change is possible if they trade off a lot to the other parties it seems. My guess it is highly more likely that nothing happens and political turmoil forces new elections for prime minister. They haven't reached the weakest point support is fairly high for the party in power.
      ECONOMICS - Turkish lira hits new record low amid political crisis
      The economic market is giving its thoughts. Lira and the index both fell.

      I actually think this is a great opportunity for a reshuffle in politics to have every party more or less weak.
      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

      Comment


      • #4
        Three important things I learned thus far about Turkey.

        Consumer Debt basically went parabolic.

        Government that is in power right now is actually splintering pro/anti corruption and ideologically.
        Ergo Religious nationalists vs Ideological Religiously driven. Essentially there is a struggle for power within the AK party.
        http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Erdogan-fighting-for-his-political-life-336328

        Corporate debt is also growing an insane amount but what is striking to me at least is this.
        Turkish companies and banks must make over $150 billion in foreign debt payments in the coming year, according to data from Capital Economics, which estimates that Indian companies too must find well over $100 billion in this time.
        [Did find the link] but I think its around ~60% dollar ~35% euro denominated for corporate debt.

        The Lira went from about 1.82 to 2.18 in a year basically. (16.5% loss) or more if you count a little earlier

        Weaker currencies pile up debt risks at Indian, Turkish companies | Reuters
        ECONOMICS - Turkey limits consumer loans out of fear for current deficit
        Last edited by cyppok; 02 Jan 14,, 14:39.
        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

        Comment


        • #5
          Its' getting very interesting now.

          Islamic Scholar Gülen
          Islamic Scholar Gülen’s letter to Ankara intensifies graft case row
          6 January 2014

          The revelation that a letter was recently sent by Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen to President Abdullah Gül has not eased the bitter ongoing rift between the Gülen movement and the Turkish government.
          “The letter was not addressed to the prime minister and it does not include any sort of ‘bargaining,’” the GYV statement said, refuting claims that Gülen was seeking to “bargain” with Erdoğan.

          Late yesterday, the content of the letter was revealed by herkul.org, a website that releases the public remarks of Gülen. Herkul.org accompanied the letter with a note stating that it was written upon a request from President Gül. Gülen agreed to write his response and also told the guest that he wanted the prime minister to be informed of the letter’s content.
          My guess is the prime minister overplayed his hand and there will be a very positive cleaning out process sooner or later.

          The Pennsylvania-based imam expressed his sadness that his movement’s members were being targeted and hampered in their career due to the ongoing controversy, the website’s notes added, citing the letter. Gülen also said it was unfortunate that a number of public workers who had no ties to the recent corruption investigations were also being removed from their posts.
          He also denied claims that he had influenced state activities, including giving orders or directives to civil servants, in an apparent response to Erdoğan’s claims that a “parallel state” was plotting against his government by organizing the graft probes.
          In the letter, Gülen stressed that what was happening to members of his movement would happen to the other communities, such as those of the followers of Mahmut Hüdai, the Süleymanites, and the Spread of Science Society (İlim Yayma Cemiyeti).
          However, during his speech at the beginning of his meeting with journalists on Jan. 4, Prime Minister Erdoğan did not appear to change his stance on the ongoing investigation, reiterating his view that shadowy groups in Turkey and abroad were conspiring to oust him from power.
          “What they wanted to do was an attempted assassination of the national will,” he said.
          “They tried to carry out a judicial coup in Turkey ... But we are going to oppose this operation, this Dec. 17 plot that targeted the future and the stability of our country,” Erdoğan added, referring to the to the vast corruption investigation that started on Dec. 17 and led to the arrests of key allies, including high-profile businessmen and the sons of former ministers.
          Five lawmakers have so far resigned from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) due to the scandal.
          Erdoğan also expressed confidence that Turkey would “overcome its current difficulties,” pointing to the coming municipal elections set for March as a test for his regime, and to the upcoming presidential elections in August. “We will not allow a cloud to be cast over Turkey’s future,” he said.

          He revealed that the letter was given to a special envoy sent by President Abdullah Gül and was addressed to Gül.
          from below
          GYV says Gülen did not send letter to Erdo

          Right now there is a very acute search for not just political scapegoats but also economic ones. There will be a catharsis in one venue or another sooner or later perhaps one preceding the other. Thus far politics created a catalyst from economic compression in the markets in some sense. It is beginning to become obvious that the government is fraught with weakness because it is lashing out in all vectors trying to grab onto higher ground in the minds of the polity. Yet, with every step they sink deeper and deeper into a malaise and distrust internally and externally of their own making.

          If you read this article its' sort of obvious at the absurdity of trying to ferret out enemies from all possible angles to strengthen the perception of the gov't.
          Chaos rhetoric hits Turkish-American relations - Today's Zaman, your gateway to Turkish daily news

          I am wondering where economic reflexivity kicks in because right now the carrying impact from uncertainty is beginning to become priced in. Basically instability in the currency/economy will be priced into capital decisions not just internally but externally as it relates to Turkey, where as before, it was a far lower proportion now the return demands will get steeper which is reasonable. At a certain point this grandstanding and witchunts will turn away most of the monetary backers and push change through in Turkey politically for the sake of stabilization if nothing else.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

          Comment


          • #6
            Here Are 350 Billion Reasons Why Banks Want You To Ignore Turkey's Turbulence | Zero Hedge
            Despite Erdogan's paranoia over "an interest rate" lobby or blaming the Lira's collapse on the Fed, as Gavekal's Nick Andrews notes, Turkey is showing no signs of stabilization. As the sell-side scrambles to explain how this is all priced in and "contained," it is very apparent from the following chart just how vulnerable to contagion the world is if Turkey defaults. The country's liabilities have multipled dramatically in recent years with over $350 billion of foreign bank exposure to Turkey on an ultimate risk basis.
            Notice its' not me saying this ... Lira went through 2.25 to the dollar retreated a little bit but so far the trend is that way.
            so far the Lira lost about ~10% since mid December...

            Two mitigating factors that may improve Turkish survivability.
            1) The pipeline from Kurdistan which brings oil will do two things
            a) it will create demand for lira even though oil could be denominated in fx it will probably be settled in lira
            b) that lira will most likely be spent into the Turkish economy so it will give a boost that will last once it starts
            2) Iran will most likely help here as well as it brings on import/export demand once fx flows through it.
            *caveat* This takes time for flows to normalize and dispersion to take effect.

            Instead the new economy minister said recently that this is not necessary, since the country is in tip-top shape. “We couldn’t create an economic crisis in Turkey even if we wanted to, it’s that strong,” said the minister, whose predecessor was purged in the recent corruption scandal.
            Turkish central bank seen shying from rate hike | Reuters
            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

            Comment


            • #7
              Turkish central bank makes massive rate hikes to stem lira fall | Reuters
              The bank raised its overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent, its one-week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5, and its overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5, much sharper moves than economists had forecast.

              The lira strengthened to 2.18 against the dollar after the decision from 2.25 late on Tuesday, having hit a record low of 2.3900 early on Monday.
              Massive change over two days. Just horrifically massive.
              I think they were forced to do it retro instead of pro-actively and in such a magnitude because if they did just a little like they were supposed to before the market reaction would have shrugged it off.

              Imagine what kind of forex flow pressures on the current account deficit forced this move essentially a week after their inaction.
              http://english.alarabiya.net/en/busi...o-new-low.html
              My sense is the desperation of this move will seep through, if it wasn't done the pressure was unbearable thus the tolerance is actually far lower than the market gauged in the beginning.

              Turkish lira hits new record low amid political crisis | Business , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR
              The county’s central bank plans to inject $450 million daily until the end of January.
              13-14 billion if they actually do it. They used about 16-17 in all of 2013 so how large are the pressures right now to do that or even state that in a MONTH!!!
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

              Comment


              • #8
                anyone remember the South Park episode where it teaches about savings and banks?

                "and it's gone" (what do you mean its gone)
                "its gone no more money move along now let other people with money through"
                "it's gone next"

                Shock And Ouch: Turkish Central Bank Intervention Now Fully Faded As Lira Collapse Returns | Zero Hedge

                Turkish Lira back on track to full collapse (1 day impact from intervention)

                The effect is gone...
                Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                  anyone remember the South Park episode where it teaches about savings and banks?

                  "and it's gone" (what do you mean its gone)
                  "its gone no more money move along now let other people with money through"
                  "it's gone next"

                  Shock And Ouch: Turkish Central Bank Intervention Now Fully Faded As Lira Collapse Returns | Zero Hedge

                  Turkish Lira back on track to full collapse (1 day impact from intervention)

                  The effect is gone...


                  this sums it up
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This is not specifically a 'Turkish political crisis' though admittedly the corruption investigation is being covered up. It is a response to the Fed's tightening on magic money. Nor is it confined to Turkey; South Africa raised interest rates to no effect the RUB/USD is falling, the Chinese are looking distinctly dodgy etc... The IMF estimates that around $470bn of the Fed's printed money is washing around the emerging markets and this money is now heading home. The bubbles caused by cheap money made in the US, UK and Japan can't take even a $20bn per month 'taper'.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      This is not specifically a 'Turkish political crisis' though admittedly the corruption investigation is being covered up. It is a response to the Fed's tightening on magic money. Nor is it confined to Turkey; South Africa raised interest rates to no effect the RUB/USD is falling, the Chinese are looking distinctly dodgy etc... The IMF estimates that around $470bn of the Fed's printed money is washing around the emerging markets and this money is now heading home. The bubbles caused by cheap money made in the US, UK and Japan can't take even a $20bn per month 'taper'.
                      This started before taper or anything for Turkey. Notice they started full blown intervention at start of Jan and intervined last year fairly heavily as well. Their deficit worries were pushing their FX rate down for the past three years. What you saw with the culmination actually existed before that as fines for any big company or affiliated people that spoke out against gov't policy.
                      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X