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1980s
07 Nov 13,, 00:36
"Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight."

BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846)

Officer of Engineers
07 Nov 13,, 01:27
Technically, not a violation of the NPT. Pakistani owned nukes to be delivered via Saudi delivery vehicles with a dual release mechanism. Standard NATO/Warsaw Pact practices for the life of the Cold War.

citanon
07 Nov 13,, 01:30
Technically, not a violation of the NPT. Pakistani owned nukes to be delivered via Saudi delivery vehicles with a dual release mechanism. Standard NATO/Warsaw Pact practices for the life of the Cold War.

And, in Middle Eastern hands, a complete clusterfuck for our future national security.

1980s
07 Nov 13,, 02:09
Whatever the legal issues, revelations like this will probably escalate hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia and an arms race around the Middle East.

If it is true that Pakistan has already supplied mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia and that delivery of the nuclear warheads to the kingdom at anytime the Saudis want them is a done deal, i can imagine that Iran would go ahead with developing its own nuclear weapons. Who knows.

I know that the revelation of a Saudi missile base with launchers pointed towards Iran and Israel was already revealed awhile ago, but i assume the latest from this BBC investigation on Saudi-Pakistan nuclear co-operation is new information? (for the public).

Rhetoric aside, i believe that Iranian leaders consider Saudi Arabia more of a threat and hostile antagonist than they do Israel. Israeli leaders should feel the same about the Saudis. The terrorist, wahhabi jihad sponsoring 'family' cannot be trusted.

And then theres crumbling, reckless Pakistan that nobody but the Saudis could ever trust.

Not that Iran's regime is much better. But unlike the Saudis, it is not so totalitarian or extremist. Not even close to the Saudi level in fact.

Firestorm
07 Nov 13,, 03:18
Technically, not a violation of the NPT. Pakistani owned nukes to be delivered via Saudi delivery vehicles with a dual release mechanism. Standard NATO/Warsaw Pact practices for the life of the Cold War.

This is why the NPT is a joke. I'm just wondering what would have been the reaction if this had been Iran instead of SA.

Officer of Engineers
07 Nov 13,, 04:26
The NPT works. There is absolutely no denying about that. Thus far, not one non-weapons state member has acquired nukes. Iran is in non-compliance as far as research is concerned but she does not have a nuke. The NPT is also a peacetime treaty. Both Washington and Moscow fully expects the treaty to be null and void once comes to a nuclear exchange.

Back to topic, the CSS2s are 20 years old and are maintained by Chinese engineers. There has been not one single drill by the Saudis on how to fuel and launched that thing. Most certainly nobody in the KSA, or in Pakistan for that matter, knows how to mate a nuke to that thing. Secondly, the article calling this rocket inaccurate is an understatement. The Chinese mated a 5 megaton warhead to that thing just so that it has a chance to kill its target, ie city hall, with the blast. Megaton warheads are beyond Pakistani expertise.

The KSA is also under the American nuclear umbrella. The KSA would be idiots to exchange that for a Pakistani nuclear umbrella.

Lastly, I highly doubt the Israelis would ever allow Pakistani nukes to even dock in Saudi ports.

Double Edge
07 Nov 13,, 06:54
Whatever the legal issues, revelations like this will probably escalate hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia and an arms race around the Middle East.
So long as they just talk about it nothing will happen.

And this isn't a revelation its been conjectured for a long time now. Yes, its legally possible.

But i have this idea that it is US nukes that defend Mecca & Jerusalem. Only way i can see to keep a troublesome area of the world less troublesome.


If it is true that Pakistan has already supplied mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia and that delivery of the nuclear warheads to the kingdom at anytime the Saudis want them is a done deal, i can imagine that Iran would go ahead with developing its own nuclear weapons. Who knows.
Look at the timing of this 'revelation'. Iran is in talks today and tomorrow. How convenient.


Rhetoric aside, i believe that Iranian leaders consider Saudi Arabia more of a threat and hostile antagonist than they do Israel. Israeli leaders should feel the same about the Saudis. The terrorist, wahhabi jihad sponsoring 'family' cannot be trusted.

And then theres crumbling, reckless Pakistan that nobody but the Saudis could ever trust.

Not that Iran's regime is much better. But unlike the Saudis, it is not so totalitarian or extremist. Not even close to the Saudi level in fact.
This is just Saudi's trying to rock the boat and bait Iran. It aint' going to work and is just another Saudi hissy fit.

Minskaya
07 Nov 13,, 10:46
US and Israeli intel discovered the missile link between China and the KSA in 1988. An initial shipment of Chinese CSS-2 missiles was delivered in June 1990 and deployed to desert bases at El-Suleil and El-Jofer. Confronted with the intel information, King Fahd promised Ronald Reagan in writing that the Saudis would not seek to equip the missiles with CBN warheads nor ever use them as a first strike option. The Saudis also promised Reagan not to harden the missile sites and signed the NPT as additional proof of intent. Comparing satellite images taken in 1995 with recent imaging reveals that the Saudis have broken their promise to not develop/harden the missile sites.

The CSS-2 is an outdated and primitive mobile missile. It is a one-stage missile with Hydrazine liquid fuel and Tetroxide as an oxidizer. Anyone familiar with liquid missile propellants realizes that both Hydrazine and Tetroxide are each highly dangerous and very difficult to work with. Even the US had huge difficulties with Tetroxide in the Trident II missiles. Due to the inaccuracy of its inertial guidance system, the CSS-2 is virtually worthless with a conventional HE warhead which is why many Israeli analysts deduce that the Saudis ultimately plan to mate them with a CBN warhead. This issue is one of the current hidden frictions between the United States and the Kingdom.

Officer of Engineers
07 Nov 13,, 11:56
Due to the inaccuracy of its inertial guidance system, the CSS-2 is virtually worthless with a conventional HE warhead which is why many Israeli analysts deduce that the Saudis ultimately plan to mate them with a CBN warhead.Until the Saudis replace Chinese engineers with their own ... and actually practice launching the damned thing, China is a signatory to both the BWC and the CWC, the thing is armed with HE.

I should also point out that throughout its entire operational history with the China's 2nd Artillery Force (China's strategic delivery force), the thing was armed with HE and not a nuke though the Chinese had drilled mating a nuke to the thing.

Blademaster
07 Nov 13,, 14:43
Technically, not a violation of the NPT. Pakistani owned nukes to be delivered via Saudi delivery vehicles with a dual release mechanism. Standard NATO/Warsaw Pact practices for the life of the Cold War.

Revelations of this means that Iran in no way would give up its nuclear program.

Doktor
07 Nov 13,, 15:09
There is always a way.

Be it Russian umbrella, or US guarantees.

Officer of Engineers
07 Nov 13,, 15:28
Revelations of this means that Iran in no way would give up its nuclear program.What? Does people actually think that Saudi is going to give up the American nuclear umbrella for a Pakistani one?

Blademaster
07 Nov 13,, 17:20
What? Does people actually think that Saudi is going to give up the American nuclear umbrella for a Pakistani one?

It is all about perception. Iran is bordered by a nuke state to its east and now you got a state south of your borders with access to nukes in addition to US and Israel. It is the feeling of being against the wall and that makes for a dangerous enemy.

In short, this situation is a good time for you to brush up on Gen. Sundarji and Rie's nuclear doctrine and apply those principles.

Oracle
07 Nov 13,, 17:31
Okay. So where is the US in this equation?

Blademaster
07 Nov 13,, 17:52
Okay. So where is the US in this equation?

OOE just gave it to you: a nuclear umbrella and the USN.

Double Edge
07 Nov 13,, 17:52
Carter Doctrine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Doctrine)

Officer of Engineers
07 Nov 13,, 18:02
In short, this situation is a good time for you to brush up on Gen. Sundarji and Rie's nuclear doctrine and apply those principles.Both Rie and Sundarji would prevent the situation from occurring. Don't let the Saudis get Pakistani nukes. Get her friends in Moscow and Beijing to clamp down hard on Islamabad ... and to get Dehli to step up her preparation. That's the other thing left unsaid, does Pakistan have nukes to spare? Looking at India, not a single one.

Edit: Come to think of it, if I were in Tehran, I would tell the Saudis. Go for it. You pissed off the Americans, alienate the Chinese, aimed Moscow's nuclear barrel right down Saudi throats, become a target for active Israeli bombing. Turn my two biggest rivals in the region, the KSA and Israel, against each other ... and the withdrawl of American support/protection on one of them and the Pakistanis can't replace it ... yeah, go for it.

1980s
23 Nov 13,, 21:52
BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons: US senator demands Obama action (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24855902)

A senior US senator, citing our Newsnight report concerning intelligence that Pakistan had made nuclear weapons that might be delivered to Saudi Arabia, has written to President Obama demanding he take action.

Senator Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, says that while efforts have gone into stopping the Iranian atomic programme "it is clear that must also be expended to ensure that other nations in the Persian Gulf do not themselves develop a nuclear weapons capability".

The senator has asked the president to share the administration's assessment of possible nuclear co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as well as to halt talks about US-Saudi co-operation on the transfer of nuclear technology.

Earlier this month we reported on Newsnight that intelligence was circulating in Nato that Pakistani nuclear weapons made on behalf of Saudi Arabia were ready for delivery in the event that Iran crossed the nuclear threshold or the kingdom faced some other dire emergency.

The Pakistan foreign minister denied our report, saying it was "baseless", but a statement from Saudi Arabia stopped short of denial, referring instead to the dangers of proliferation in the Middle East.

Mr Markey, in his letter to President Obama, notes senior Pakistani officials have also denied the story, but registers his concern that Saudi Arabia may have been pursuing a nuclear route outside its own territory to avoid the kind of scrutiny that Iran has received.

In recent years there have been consistent statements by key Saudi figures that they would acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did. These have included the king himself, as well as other ministers.

Newsnight sought and received guidance from well-placed Pakistani sources about the nature of their co-operation with Saudi Arabia, and they confirmed there was an understanding between the countries to provide nuclear weapons to the kingdom in extremis.

Those who doubt this allegation of a highly secret, probably unwritten deal argue that the international costs to operating as a nuclear cash-and-carry for the Saudis would far outweigh any possible benefits.

Given that Pakistan denies it has readied warheads for the Saudis, but few underestimate the seriousness with which the Saudi royal family view the possible advent of an Iranian bomb, there are more questions now being asked about whether the kingdom might be using other tracks to develop atomic weapons in the longer term.

Mr Markey writes to the president: "I strongly urge you to cease negotiations to allow Saudi Arabia to acquire US or US-origin nuclear technology."

This follows reports that US officials had been in discussion in May about an agreement to share such know-how.

Agnostic Muslim
27 Nov 13,, 20:50
A more realistic assessment of any potential 'Saudi-Pakistan deal on nuclear weapons':


... Saudi Arabia has backed and at times helped fund Pakistan’s nuclear program, according to proliferation experts. (The program became public in 1998.) That doesn’t mean that acquiring a nuclear bomb is as easy as shipping it across the Arabian Sea. Saudi, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, would risk global reproach, possible sanctions and the launch of a regional arms race if it had its own bomb. A more likely scenario, says Gary Samore, Obama’s former arms-control adviser and director for research at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, would be some sort of pact that could see Pakistani nuclear weapons moved to Saudi Arabia. “Even if U.S. diplomacy fails and Iran gets nuclear weapons, Pakistan isn’t just going to hand over nuclear weapons; it’s more likely that Pakistan would station forces in Saudi, and those forces will have the ability to deploy nuclear weapons from Saudi soil” — much like American troops are able to do in Europe, without contravening those country’s nonproliferation treaties.

Still, such a pact would have significant drawbacks, points out Gause. Pakistan may not be willing to attack its neighbor Iran for fear of repercussions, and it would be a death knell for the U.S.-Saudi friendship. “In terms of putting at risk relations with the United States, a Pakistani nuclear pact would be the most provocative Saudi foreign policy decision since the 1973 oil embargo,” says Gause. That might serve Saudi pique at being sidelined by its old ally America as that ally pursues a lasting deal with Iran, but it would ultimately be self-defeating. Better for Saudi in the long run would be a deal that brings Iran closer to the U.S., and further from a bomb.

Read more: Iran Deal Leads Saudi Arabia to Consider Nuclear Options | TIME.com Iran Deal Leads Saudi Arabia to Consider Nuclear Options | TIME.com (http://world.time.com/2013/11/26/saudi-arabia-considers-nuclear-weapons-after-irans-geneva-deal/#ixzz2lsSQJvwv)

ajhax
27 Nov 13,, 22:32
it’s more likely that Pakistan would station forces in Saudi, and those forces will have the ability to deploy nuclear weapons from Saudi soil”
Even that looks very unlikely. Why would Saudi Arabia swap US nuclear umbrella for Pakistan's?



much like American troops are able to do in Europe, without contravening those country’s nonproliferation treaties.

Or look it from a different side? Why would Pakistan risk confrontation with Iran over Saudi Arabia? US and Europe had a common enemy. I don't see how even a nuclear Iran is an enemy of Pakistan.

Agnostic Muslim
28 Nov 13,, 00:53
Or look it from a different side? Why would Pakistan risk confrontation with Iran over Saudi Arabia? US and Europe had a common enemy. I don't see how even a nuclear Iran is an enemy of Pakistan.
I agree that 'a nuclear Iran is not an enemy of Pakistan', and Pakistan has very little to gain from antagonizing Iran. The author of the piece above does point out that, "Pakistan may not be willing to attack its neighbor Iran for fear of repercussions ...".

Even a perceived 'pro-Saudi' Pakistani political leadership (the PML-N) has continued to engage with Iran over the IP-Pipeline, despite the threat of US sanctions (forget Saudi displeasure), so I highly doubt that the Pakistani political or military leadership is interested in pursuing policies that will alienate it regionally and internationally. Pakistan already has a hostile India and Afghanistan on her Eastern and Western borders, and continues to face international resistance in joining the global civilian nuclear marketplace - the Saudis can offer nothing to Pakistan that can justify the addition of an openly hostile Iran to the mix, along with continued international isolation on the basis of 'nuclear weapons proliferation'.

lemontree
29 Nov 13,, 06:30
Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.

SajeevJino
30 Nov 13,, 05:10
It's some Experience to make WTF\

Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10472538/Iran-nuclear-deal-Saudi-Arabia-warns-it-will-strike-out-on-its-own.html)

Deltacamelately
30 Nov 13,, 09:49
Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.
Aldrin,

The puzzle has its roots in the 80s. A lot of water has flown since then. The Saudi money for the Pak nukes had Israel in the picture. Iran was not that important in their geaopolitical nuclear radar. With the perceived mutual threat from Israel - Pak fear of an Israeli/Joint Indo-Israeli strike on its nuclear installations and Saudi fear of a nuclear Israel and the perceived immunity that Pak deployed nukes on Saudi soil would provide. A lot has changed since then, with the Saudi's now firmly under the US nuclear umbrella, Israel and the Saudis jointly sharing fear of a nuclear Iran and Pakistan nowehere close to what its standing and prestige was then, in the ME, with the war against the Soviet's going full on.

Agnostic Muslim
30 Nov 13,, 16:15
Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.
You misunderstood my position - my personal view is that Pakistan will not provide nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, either directly or through a 'Pakistan operated nuclear umbrella'. The negative repercussions from such a move far outweigh any possible benefit the Saudis can provide. The Saudi-Pakistan relationship, currently, does not have any major tangible initiatives (read, Saudi economic offsets to assist a pro-Saudi political party running the GoP) on the table. The Saudi-Iranian relationship has been quite tense (over the Iranian nuclear weapons issue) for many years now, and if the Saudis really considered a 'Pakistani Nuclear Umbrella' or 'Pakistan sale of nuclear weapons' a feasible option to keep on the table, the Saudi-Pakistan relationship would not be at the humdrum levels it is currently. As I pointed out earlier, the fact that even the PMLN is continuing to pursue the IP-Pipeline points to a reduction in Saudi influence over Pakistan, and the Saudis themselves don't appear to be very interested in engaging Pakistan in any major initiatives elsewhere to strengthen their influence.

If the current dynamic, as I understand it, is reflective of a policy change on the part of the Pakistani political and military establishment, to balance Pakistan's relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia and avoid upsetting either party in any major way (Pakistan has major economic and security interests , in both countries, at stake) , then I think it is an extremely welcome, even if belated, adjustment of Pakistani foreign policy (post Iranian Revolution).

politics
10 Dec 13,, 17:00
this action from Saudi Arabia is to balance Iran actually. If one time Iran gathers nuclear power Saudi should have also according to balance of power.

n21
30 Dec 13,, 17:21
How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.

SajeevJino
31 Dec 13,, 03:36
How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.

agree

Me also think They don't have a Platform to launch the Nuke devices ..They have Nukes But they don't have LAUNCHERS ..There nukes doesn't fit their Missiles

Officer of Engineers
31 Dec 13,, 05:16
The Swiss found copies of the CHAGAI-I blueprints and they would fit inside of Paksitani missiles. However, to date, we have not seen fuse testing ... and to be honest, we have not seen any from India also. Doesn't mean that neither country has not done it but open source info to date reveals nothing.

Agnostic Muslim
31 Dec 13,, 15:14
How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.
At least Pakistan carried out tests (failed or not) over a decade ago and obtained critical data from those tests - the Iranians haven't even done that. So, if it came down to two largely 'unproven' nuclear weapons designs (between Iran and Pakistan), Pakistan would still be miles ahead.

Alpha1
24 May 14,, 14:51
agree

Me also think They don't have a Platform to launch the Nuke devices ..They have Nukes But they don't have LAUNCHERS ..There nukes doesn't fit their Missiles
this will be quite delusional if you believe that Pakistan doesn't have a delivery platforms .
The Swiss found copies of the CHAGAI-I blueprints and they would fit inside of Paksitani missiles.