PDA

View Full Version : 1762 Seven Years War (Prussia loses East Prussia and Silesia)



cyppok
01 Sep 13,, 01:22
Basically if Elizabeth lived a year or two more the annexation of East Prussia would have stood and most likely Silesia would be returned to Austria-Hungary.

Keep in mind that 1762 is before the Polish Partition and ascendancy of Prussia.

It is very likely that all the other aspects outside of Europe would have still been the way the are. Ergo British pushing into North America in earnest and taking land left and right once Prussia was crushed and pushed out of the war.

Maybe there would have been no WW1 or WW2 perhaps if Prussia was fractured and there was another state in North Germany able to survive as an enlarged Hanover. The balance of France/Austria would be maintained perhaps. Lots of interesting aspects really.

Crocodylus
01 Sep 13,, 02:47
Basically if Elizabeth lived a year or two more the annexation of East Prussia would have stood and most likely Silesia would be returned to Austria-Hungary.

Keep in mind that 1762 is before the Polish Partition and ascendancy of Prussia.

It is very likely that all the other aspects outside of Europe would have still been the way the are. Ergo British pushing into North America in earnest and taking land left and right once Prussia was crushed and pushed out of the war.

Maybe there would have been no WW1 or WW2 perhaps if Prussia was fractured and there was another state in North Germany able to survive as an enlarged Hanover. The balance of France/Austria would be maintained perhaps. Lots of interesting aspects really.A few questions. Wouldn't Prussia reunite if the Industrial Revolution took hold in the post-Prussian states? They might decide that they would be strong enough to change the balance of power in Europe once they find they can build strong military forces. Or maybe their division would make industrialization irrelevant as a geopolitical factor. As well, wouldn't the German nationalist movements of the 19th century inspire the reintegration of the post-Prussian states, possibly spurring France and Britain to take action to keep that from happening? If WW1 or a great European war of the early 20th century were to happen in an alternate historical reality, it would be for that reason.

cyppok
06 Sep 13,, 15:49
A few questions. Wouldn't Prussia reunite if the Industrial Revolution took hold in the post-Prussian states? They might decide that they would be strong enough to change the balance of power in Europe once they find they can build strong military forces. Or maybe their division would make industrialization irrelevant as a geopolitical factor. As well, wouldn't the German nationalist movements of the 19th century inspire the reintegration of the post-Prussian states, possibly spurring France and Britain to take action to keep that from happening? If WW1 or a great European war of the early 20th century were to happen in an alternate historical reality, it would be for that reason.

If they lost East Prussia and Silesia (at least 100 years before industrial revolution on the continent or 50 in england)
They wouldn't benefit as much from partition of Poland if that happened. It could theoretically occur that saxony would have survived and Saxon-Polish union allowed Poland to survive.

Prussia was able to roll up duchies in the North precisely because Austria and other powers were weakened for the next 50 years or so. Once Sweden was pushed out a lot of possibilities opened up and Prussia simply took them because they were the strongest in that area. Hannover could have grown if Prussia was weaker.

Nationalist movements need reflections on the past both Silesian and East Prussian Identities would have 200 years of influence from different factors. Ergo the settlement of germans by eastern expansion through Fredricks decrees would have been curtailed and the mix of population would have been different in East Prussia and Silesia both. Silesia would have been closer to Czech influence once Austria was coming apart and the population mix would have been similar.

Think about the outcome of WW2 this would have been similar 200 years ago and all due to one untimely death. Ergo if the Emperess lived a year or two after annexing East Prussia it would have stood and the likelihood of Prussia taking it back in the near future would have been very very low.

Mihais
06 Sep 13,, 16:19
Few things missing.First is that Austria(no Austria-Hungary for another 105 years) faces France alone.Meaning that eventually,France and Russia get to share Europe as they did at Tilsit.They'll fight,but without the Prussian army of 1813,the Russians can't get to Paris.Yes,there were many German states and many German soldiers,but it takes Prussian soldiers and generals to tilt the balance.So the French and the Russians will settle down eventually.
Prussia is an indispensable power for any international order as we knew it to exist.

In the absence of Prussia and the balance of power,we'd probably still have Russian&French Empires.Since I liked the French one and never loved to hate the Russian one,I might have liked it.

cyppok
06 Sep 13,, 23:46
Few things missing.First is that Austria(no Austria-Hungary for another 105 years) faces France alone.Meaning that eventually,France and Russia get to share Europe as they did at Tilsit.They'll fight,but without the Prussian army of 1813,the Russians can't get to Paris.Yes,there were many German states and many German soldiers,but it takes Prussian soldiers and generals to tilt the balance.So the French and the Russians will settle down eventually.
Prussia is an indispensable power for any international order as we knew it to exist.

In the absence of Prussia and the balance of power,we'd probably still have Russian&French Empires.Since I liked the French one and never loved to hate the Russian one,I might have liked it.

Hannover and other German states would fill the gap.
Saxony would grow larger perhaps survive or even if annexed would make up for East Prussia.

You are overestimating Prussian impact on France. Even without Prussia Russian/Great British/Swedish/Austrian/ETC forces would have gotten to Paris. It did not take Prussian soldiers or generals, it took utter annihilation of French armies through battles/famine/starvation and other realities.

Mihais
07 Sep 13,, 09:34
Russians without Prussians would not even get to Oder.Or stay there for long.Without some serious French operational mistakes they could have managed to avoid that fate even in the favourable historical case.But that's beside the point.

Napoleon was merrily beating the Russo-Prussian force through spring-searly summer 1813.Minor German powers were cowed into supporting him.It took an ill timed armistice for the allies to recover,Austria to get into the war,Sweden and other minor powers switch sides.And as Dresden showed,the outcome was not predetermined,even with all this.

Russia deserves most of the credit.Their strategic thinking betwen 1807 and 1815 was unparalleled in world.Its army and generals were also superb,if you look at the details.Russia was unbeatable on its own ground.In the coalition,Russia was also the most important power.But even with allies,it was still not enough if you exclude Prussia.And no,Hannover and Saxony aren't good enough.BGesides,you just created 2 powers that vye for their place in the sun.One is prone to ally with France.

cyppok
08 Sep 13,, 16:27
Russians without Prussians would not even get to Oder.Or stay there for long.Without some serious French operational mistakes they could have managed to avoid that fate even in the favourable historical case.But that's beside the point.

Napoleon was merrily beating the Russo-Prussian force through spring-searly summer 1813.Minor German powers were cowed into supporting him.It took an ill timed armistice for the allies to recover,Austria to get into the war,Sweden and other minor powers switch sides.And as Dresden showed,the outcome was not predetermined,even with all this.

Russia deserves most of the credit.Their strategic thinking betwen 1807 and 1815 was unparalleled in world.Its army and generals were also superb,if you look at the details.Russia was unbeatable on its own ground.In the coalition,Russia was also the most important power.But even with allies,it was still not enough if you exclude Prussia.And no,Hannover and Saxony aren't good enough.BGesides,you just created 2 powers that vye for their place in the sun.One is prone to ally with France.

You are forgetting two important things.
1) if Austria kept Silesia it would have been able to raise more troops it would be more likely to survive French pressure in the first place.
2) if Saxony-Poland existed without partition the likelihood of France going into North Germany would be very low.
A dismembered Prussia would be absorbed by Saxony instead of the other way around...
Think about this implication quiet a bit. Remember at the end of Nap wars two thirds of saxony was lost to prussia if the opposite happened it would be quiet likely the dynamic would be held to keep France out of North Germany by the alternative.
3) If the partitions did happen Saxony could have been the one to grow with more tranquil results and more ability to grow into North Germany.

Saxony was vying with Prussia all throughout I didn't create anything that wasn't there.
Hannover got absorbed after Nap wars because it was weak and didn't grow.