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The Future of Diego Garcia

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  • The Future of Diego Garcia

    In addition to other facilities, Diego Garcia currently is the home of Detachment 2, 22nd Space Operations Squadron of the U.S. Air Force, which is the newest of eight worldwide satellite command and control stations that constitute the Air Force Satellite Control Network. This Detachment is essential for launch, operation, and in-orbit command, control, and mission data recovery of over 110 U.S Dept of Defense and other National and Civil Agency satellites that enhance that capabilities of conventional forces of the U.S. and allied nations. This Detachment also provides support to NASA’s Space Shuttle and Goddard Spaceflight Center, NATO and United Kingdom satellites.

    Unlike in other critical sub-regions of Asia, in the Indian Ocean littoral, the U.S lacks reliable host-nation bases and is unlikely to acquire them. For that reason, Diego Garcia, whose location and political reliability give it significant utility for both routine operations and crisis response, is central to US power projection in the IOR. In its current state, Diego Garcia fulfills an important regional support role for logistics and operations. However, planned cnstruction on the island presents a significantly expanded role for the island as a primary hub for U.S power projection in the region.

    However, in the recent past, the demands for re-settlement of the original inhabitants, the Chagossians have orpened a new debate and Mauritius has constantly pressurised the U.K to return Diego Garcia and the other 54 islands in the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius. Add to this the recent spat over allegations on the U.S, about some shady prison cells set up on the base without express consent from the British. It is unlikely though, in the current context, Britain would agree to any such commitment for the distant future, even though the agreement setting up the American base, signed by the US and UK in 1966 expires in 2016. Though it includes a 20 year optional extension, for which both parties must agree to extend, modify, or end it by December 2014.

    This warrants a debate as to what would be the future of Diego Garcia. I would thus request you Gentlemen for your assessment on the topic - What would be the eventual status of Diego Garcia as a Naval and Air Force Base, say 30-50 years from here.

    1. Would the U.S still be economically and militarily able to hold on to this base?
    2. Would the U.S return the base and associated infrastructure to the U.K?
    3. Would the U.K be able to hold on to Diego Garcia?
    4. Would the British return Diego Garcia and the rest 54 islands to Mauritius?
    5. Would the U.S hand over the base to India or say China and enter into some sort of treaty on maritime security and free navigation etc?
    6. Would rights over the base lead to some sort of military confrontation between parties with vested interests?
    7. Or would everybody just pack their bags and go home, rendering Diego Garcia a no man's land?
    sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

  • #2
    Or the US might just keep it the way we did Gitmo. But the UK will extend the lease have no fear.

    India ain't getting it, neither is China.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by zraver View Post
      Or the US might just keep it the way we did Gitmo. But the UK will extend the lease have no fear.

      India ain't getting it, neither is China.
      DG is WAY too important to the US and her interests to ever think about giving up; there are no other US military facilities within a thousand miles of DG that offer the same level of security and support. Many in the US Gov't view DG as simply a huge US supercarrier permanently anchored in the Indian Ocean.
      "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

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      • #4
        Let's not forget that the US strategic shift is clearly lifted from Europe and stated in that region.

        Tho a bit away from the main focus on the Pacific it is still very important base.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • #5
          Question for those who might know: Who paid for the B-2 shelters on DG? The US? On an island we DON'T own?

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          "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by zraver View Post
            Or the US might just keep it the way we did Gitmo. But the UK will extend the lease have no fear.

            India ain't getting it, neither is China.
            India doesn't need to get it. It just needs to sink it. And by the going rate, it looks like the world will do it for India as the sea level rises.

            Comment


            • #7
              I hope that the time lines are being taken into proper consideration. What might be compelling for the US today, will the same be practicable 30-50 years down the line?
              sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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              • #8
                I've been wondering about the technology. The DF-21D may or may not be a carrier killer but it is definetely a runway killer. It certainly will not be 50 years before India or Iran to develops similar technologies.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  I've been wondering about the technology. The DF-21D may or may not be a carrier killer but it is definetely a runway killer. It certainly will not be 50 years before India or Iran to develops similar technologies.
                  Then DF-21D is a bluff because it is meant to hit a moving ACC.

                  Indian BM BO5 has CEP in one digit.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    I've been wondering about the technology. The DF-21D may or may not be a carrier killer but it is definetely a runway killer. It certainly will not be 50 years before India or Iran to develops similar technologies.
                    Sir,

                    Didn't quite get you. Do you mean, you expect India to hit Diego Garcia in the long term? And that it needs tech similar to DF-21 and that India is unlikely to field such technology in the next 50 years?
                    sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      First comes the tech, then the hit. If the Col is right about the time span, most of have nothing to worry about since we most probably wont be around to see that happening ;)
                      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ambidex View Post
                        Then DF-21D is a bluff because it is meant to hit a moving ACC.

                        Indian BM BO5 has CEP in one digit.
                        The difference is that the DF-21D was designed from the start to be a cheap battlefield system and not an expensive nuclear bomb truck.

                        Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
                        Sir,

                        Didn't quite get you. Do you mean, you expect India to hit Diego Garcia in the long term? And that it needs tech similar to DF-21 and that India is unlikely to field such technology in the next 50 years?
                        I'm saying that in 50 years, DG itself would come under threat and by such, its effectiveness would be reduced.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          The difference is that the DF-21D was designed from the start to be a cheap battlefield system and not an expensive nuclear bomb truck.

                          I'm saying that in 50 years, DG itself would come under threat and by such, its effectiveness would be reduced.
                          Sir,

                          Please educate - As per you, what will be the possible status of Diego Garcia, once the US military gets to a state, where deployment at such distances become un-tenable. Not that this is destined to happen. I am just curious as who else can see the US withdrawl as an opportunity to use DG as a military base 3-4 decades from now. Who can muster.
                          sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            A lot can change in that time. India might actually have an alliance treaty with the US. Or the Americans would have perfected a ballistic missile shield but the one thing I am certain is that DG as an unsinkable aircraft carrier will be challenged and challenged hard even if just in concepts.

                            Do recall that Japan once boasted that she was an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Moscow's response was do you really want to find out?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
                              I hope that the time lines are being taken into proper consideration. What might be compelling for the US today, will the same be practicable 30-50 years down the line?
                              Because of immigration the US population is still growing. That means the US economy will continue to be a major global factor. This means certain US outposts will retain importance especially with Africa growing in importance and the Middle East (Bahrain) so unstable.

                              OOE, The US has systems like the THAAD for BM defense and DEW is right around the corner.

                              Comment

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