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  • The Syrian political question.

    The Syrian people must understand, that there is no substitute to the Assad regime. There has to be an administration, to formulate a new constitution, and to make the administration better. If The Assad regime goes, what does this mean? Only Assad goes? What about the army, which is accused of killing people? The problem arises, when the Syrian people look at themselves as a collective, or as different collectives. One group fights the other groups. After the 'fall' of the Assad regime, why will not they fight among themselves, if they will not? In this situation, aren't the Syrian people also responsible for the situation? Assad is not important, nor is the army. The army is supposed to protect the Syrian people from outside aggression. The army is never formed to fight internal dissent, because the army is formed from the population. Assad has the Syrian population to govern over, that is why he does so. In this situation, the Syrian people are their own enemy, and the army and Assad are not.
    It can be said, that the Syrian people gave the government the army, and the arms to arm the army, and now they fight their own identity, institution, etc. Isn't this termed as 'insanity', though the term has different meanings? It is easy for us, to say all this, when the Syrians are suffering. Very true, and no one refutes this. You can castigate the Syrian army, Assad, and the government, but the people who allow themselves to be slaughtered by their own, and then blame their own, and see themselves as blameless, are really in an unacceptable position.

  • #2
    War is insanity my friend!

    The Assad families one party state Baathist apparatus sees to that minority cliques of loyalists (Baathists and Allawaites, give or take 12% of the Syrian people, that 'collective' you refer to -- more on that in a minute) fill the upper ranks of the army and also make up the upper 'crust' of a nearly beggared population.

    Whilst I share your frustration and sadness of having to see a country collapse into civil war in the manner which Syria is you must recognize the manner in which one-party authoritarian states will eventually go as far as to plunder their country to the point of economic deterioration and beggary purely for their own selfish means. It has already happened to the respective peoples of great civilizations such as Mesopotamia and Persia.

    As for a collective, or the different groups that will fight each other or be divided over religious or ethnic lines, you seem to be implying that Assad represents a stabilizing force, even though his regime exploits these sectarian divides to scare the minority sects within the country (such as the Alawaites close to his regime) to keep them mistrustful and fearful of their fellow citizens.

    How you think there is no substitute to the Assad regime is quite simply beyond me, surely sir the Syrian people have the resolve to do much better than this!

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
      Sometimes a visible object lesson is more useful
      TH,

      Your pedagogic powers are weaken.

      Wanna try different approach?
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • #4
        No use dude.

        TH is damaged goods.

        He's been bribed by the all almighty cheetos way too many time.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
          TH,

          Your pedagogic powers are weaken.

          Wanna try different approach?
          Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
          No use dude.

          TH is damaged goods.

          He's been bribed by the all almighty cheetos way too many time.
          Wrong thread, fellas.... Nice try, though
          Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

          Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

          Comment


          • #6
            We're trying to make the WAB into one long thread.

            Can you imagine JAD doing an awesome analysis of the political landscape and the very next post have a YT video of some kid playing the ukulele.....followed by Rusty telling us some deep dark secrets about the LB shipyard...quickly followed by pictures of Celine, all the while tankie is incoherently adding his two cents.

            Yes, Benny.....I have a dream.
            Last edited by YellowFever; 05 Jun 12,, 23:58.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              TH,

              Your pedagogic powers are weaken.

              Wanna try different approach?
              Nah, I knew it wouldn't work.

              Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
              No use dude.

              TH is damaged goods.

              He's been bribed by the all almighty cheetos way too many time.
              The Almighty Cheetah forgives your blasphemy my son.

              I, however, DO NOT!
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

              Comment


              • #8
                Trying to get a handle on what is happening and what to expect in Syria. This article does a decent job of that. It also offers an alternative. Something that has not been forthcoming when it comes to thinking about Syria.

                The dominant view on this board is keep the hell out and leave them to their own devices.

                Largely yes but there are little things that can assist in a positive way with that.

                Syria Is Not a Problem from Hell | Foreign Policy | May 31 2012


                Syria Is Not a Problem from Hell
                But if we don't act quickly, it will be.
                BY ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER | MAY 31, 2012

                Nothing to be done. It's impossible. Stalemate at the United Nations. These are the mantras that continue to accompany ever more violent and wrenching pictures of massacres and daily killings in Syria. The country has been "sliding toward civil war" for months now without any meaningful change in the international response. The Russian government originally seems to have calculated that President Bashar al-Assad could crush the opposition the way Vladimir Putin crushed the uprising in Chechnya, but that degree of brutality would have brought international intervention for sure. The "Annan Plan" is becoming a synonym for hypocrisy and inaction. The Friends of Syria diplomatic strategy of choking the Syrian economy ever tighter is paying off in food shortages and rising prices, but has offered no evidence that the Sunni business class has the will or the means to effect a coup. And the Alawites appear to be closing ranks; indeed, massacres like last week's slaughter in al-Houla guarantee an increasingly bloody retribution if and when the tide finally turns.


                I say "if" and not just "when" because Lebanon teaches us that an even more violent and chaotic version of the present conflict can endure for years, but with the added dimension of growing radicalization of many opposition forces and the provision of a new cause and new territory for al Qaeda-linked or inspired insurgents from Iraq, Yemen, and even Pakistan. These elements truly are the "foreign terrorists" Assad inveighs against; their presence and their IED and car-bomb tactics will solidify support for Assad in Damascus and Aleppo and drive Syria's Alawites ever more deeply into the arms of Iran. At the same time, trouble spills over into Lebanon as Syrian government troops chase Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces across the border, a scenario that could be replicated in Jordan and Turkey. All the while, Syria's Kurds are freer to unite with their Iraqi cousins, with dreams of an expanded Kurdish autonomous zone that is a nightmare for the Turkish government. Add chemical weapons, and the designs of Iran, Israel, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia into the mix and long-term destabilization of the region's security and economy looms.

                An alternative exists, one that grows clearer and nearer every day. Three months ago, I proposed in the New York Times that the Arab League and Turkey, backed by NATO members, should provide a limited number of specialized anti-tank and anti-mortar weapons to Syrian towns willing to declare "no kill zones" -- call them NKZs -- in their towns, meaning no attacks by the Syrian army, sectarian shabbiha militias, the FSA, or anyone else. Public safety, including for peaceful protesters, would be paramount. I suggested the United States provide communications and intelligence to enable the town authorities and any members of any military willing to enforce the NKZ to allow them to track the movements of Syrian government troops. And I suggested that drones from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States could fire on Syrian government tanks approaching NKZs.

                This proposal was widely met with derision, particularly in the security community. But three months later, the United States has announced that it is providing intelligence and communication support to the FSA and openly countenancing the provision of arms by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Near the Jordan-Syria border, the U.S. military has just finished a massive military exercise with Jordan and 18 other countries. Ambassador Susan Rice told CNN's Wolf Blitzer Wednesday night that as a last resort "we," presumably meaning the Friends of Syria, must "look at options outside the U.N." Robert Baer, who spent more than two decades as a CIA case officer in the Middle East, said on another CNN program that it would be possible to use drones to take out tanks in Syria. And the Times of London came out in support of no-kill zones on its editorial page.

                What is still missing is a plan. It is time to stand neither for the Syrian opposition nor against the Syrian government but against killing by either side. To tell any Syrian local officials willing to stand against killing -- whether a Local Coordinating Committee or simply a municipal government -- that they will receive weapons and air support against tanks, support that will be withdrawn if killing begins or continues, by anyone. All citizens of such towns should be instructed to photograph violence by anyone against anyone and upload it to a central website maintained by the U.N. or by the Friends of Syria, so that they become peace monitors.

                Legally, the Friends of Syria can proceed without the U.N. Security Council's approval if the Arab League is willing to declare a threat to regional peace and security resulting from the ongoing violence in Syria. Given the current refugee situation and the clear potential for destabilization of neighboring countries, the league would be amply justified in doing so. Arab states are also entitled to ask for assistance from Turkey and any other countries. NATO could make the same move at Turkey's request, but need not do so for individual NATO members to assist the Arab League. International lawyers will debate the point, but Chapter VIII of the U.N. Charter governing regional arrangements arguably allows such action as long as the Arab League informs the Security Council of the measures it is taking for the maintenance of international peace and security.

                Baer, the former CIA officer, also said on CNN that it was quite possible that the international community would not intervene in Syria until the level of killing reached Rwandan proportions. That is a horrific message to send both to the Syrian people and the Syrian government, not to mention similarly brutal governments around the world. Surely mass murder in the tens of thousands is enough for action, on both moral and strategic grounds. Many if not most readers will have objections to the plan proposed here. To them, I say: Either accept the status quo and recognize how much worse it is likely to get, or propose a plan of your own.

                Anne-Marie Slaughter is the Bert G. Kerstetter '66 university professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Into this mix of course is Syria's chemical and possible biological weapons. I don't see Assad being hesitant in using them against his own population if they were armed against him.
                  In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                  Leibniz

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                  • #10
                    She does not mention whether the Russians would agree to such a plan.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jun 12,, 22:41.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      She does not mention whether the Russians would agree to such a plan.
                      If it's outside Security Council mandate it doesn't matter unless Putin wants to put boots on the ground. Good luck to him if he does that.
                      In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                      Leibniz

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Didn't OOE say in April that the Russians had moved some nuclear assets to the Syrian port.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Didn't OOE say in April that the Russians had moved some nuclear assets to the Syrian port.
                          Yes he did. It's tokenism though. I don't see how they can increase their presence much other than selling arms.
                          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                          Leibniz

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            Trying to get a handle on what is happening and what to expect in Syria. This article does a decent job of that. It also offers an alternative. Something that has not been forthcoming when it comes to thinking about Syria.

                            The dominant view on this board is keep the hell out and leave them to their own devices.

                            Largely yes but there are little things that can assist in a positive way with that.

                            Below is my own humble contribution to this entire debate:

                            Will military intervention work in Syria?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              A NATO style intervention? Probably not. A Stalinist/Genghis Khan move? Assad could not give up fast enough and even then, would not do him any good.

                              Comment

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