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What if - US army confronted the Indian force on 1971 ?

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  • What if - US army confronted the Indian force on 1971 ?

    So I read this detailed article on the 1971 India-Pakistan war. I had some doubts and some scenarios running in my mind which could have altered the the history of India post the war. First the article.
    1971 India Pakistan War: Role of Russia, China, America and Britain

    Sanskar Shrivastava on Sunday, 30 October 2011

    It was in the year 1971 when the two South Asian rivals declared war on each other, causing a great loss to the lives, property and territory in case of Pakistan.

    "As the topic sounds controversial, before we begin we would like to tell that every information in this article is sourced. The article was written after a detail analysis of various sources. All the relevant and immediate sources are listed at the end of the Article."

    Background:

    Before 1971, Bangladesh used to be a part of Pakistan as East Pakistan. According to Najam Sethi, a well respected and honoured journalist from Pakistan, East Pakistan always complained that they received less development funds and less attention from the West Pakistan (Punjabi) dominating government. Bengalis in East Pakistan also resisted the adoption of Urdu as the state language. The revenue from export, whether it was from the Cotton of West Pakistan or Jute of East Pakistan, was handled mainly by West Pakistan. Lastly, in an election conducted just some months before the war, the victory was gained by the East Pakistani leader and still he was not given the power, thus fueling the movement in East Pakistan.

    Pakistani army started its operation in East Pakistan to contain the movement and anger among the Bengalis. It is reported that the army was involved in mass killing of public and mass rape of women. India was aware of this and was only waiting for a trigger to start the war. India started receiving huge number of refugees which became unmanageable, pushing it to intervene in the situation.

    In May, Indira Gandhi wrote to Nixon about the 'carnage in East Bengal' and the flood of refugees, burdening India. After L K Jha (then the Indian ambassador to US) had warned Kissinger that India might have to send back some of the refugees as guerrillas, Nixon commented, 'By God, we will cut off economic aid [to India].'

    A few days later, when the US president said 'the goddamn Indians' were preparing for another war, Kissinger retorted 'they are the most aggressive goddamn people around.'

    US and China Connection, A Little Known Fact

    (All Excerpts and Sources from 929 page long Volume XI of the Foreign Relations of the United States)

    US sympathized with Pakistan, because of various reasons. Among them two reasons were that: firstly, Pakistan belonged to American led military Pact, CENTO and SEATO; secondly, US believed any victory of India will be considered as the expansion of Soviet influence in the parts gained by India with the victory, as it was believed to be a pro Soviet nation, even though they were non aligned.

    In a telegram sent to US Secretary of State Will Roger, on March 28, 1971, the staff of the US consulate in Dhaka complained, 'Our government has failed to denounce the suppression of democracy. Our government has failed to denounce atrocities. Our government has failed to take forceful measures to protect its citizens while at the same time bending over backwards to placate the West Pakistan dominated government... We, as professional public servants express our dissent with current policy and fervently hope that our true and lasting interests here can be defined and our policies redirected in order to salvage our nation's position as a moral leader of the free world.'

    This brought China in the picture. US needed help from China and the messenger was Pakistan. US approached China very secretly on this issue, who was more than welcoming as itbelieved that their relations with US could improve from this onward.

    During the second week of July, 1971, Kissinger arrived in Beijing, where he heard the words by then Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai: "In our opinion, if India continues on its present course in disregard of world opinion, it will continue to go on recklessly. We, however, support the stand of Pakistan. This is known to the world. If they [the Indians] are bent on provoking such a situation, then we cannot sit idly by.' On this, Kissinger responded that China should know that the US also backs Pakistan on this issue.

    Indira Gandhi, the Indian prime minister in those times decided to tour most of the Western capitals to prove Indian stand and gain support and sympathy for the Bengalis of East Pakistan. On November 4th and 5th she met Nixon in Washington. Nixon straight forwardly told her that a new war in the subcontinent was out of the question.

    The next day, Nixon and Kissinger assessed the situation. Kissinger told Nixon: 'The Indians are bastards anyway. They are plotting a war.'

    The pressure increased in East Pakistan, which attracted Indian attention. Indians were preparing for war and were concentrated on the Eastern front. To divert the pressure, on December 3, in the dark of night, even before India could attack East Pakistan, Pakistan opened western front and air raided six Indian Airfields in Kashmir and Punjab.

    The CIA reported to the US President that Indian Prime Minister believes that the Chinese will never intervene militarily in North India, and thus, any action from China would be a surprise for India and Indian military might collapse in tensed situation caused by fighting in three different fronts (East, North and West).

    Hearing this, on December 9, Nixon decided to send the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal to threaten India. The plan was to Surround India from all four sides and force them to retreat and leave East Pakistan.

    On December 10, Nixon instructed Kissinger to ask the Chinese to move some troops toward the Indian frontier. 'Threaten to move forces or move them, Henry, that's what they must do now.' China feared any action on India might attract Soviet aggression. At this, US assured China that any action taken by Soviet Union will be countered by US to protect China.

    Pakistani army had somehow maintained their position and resisted Indian advancement. They believed China is preparing to open the Northern front which will slow down or completely stop the Indian advancement. In fact, the myth of Chinese activity was also communicated to Pakistan's army to boost their moral, to keep their will to fight and hope alive. Lieutenant General A A K Niazi, the Pakistani army commander in Dhaka, was informed: "NEFA front has been activated by Chinese, although the Indians, for obvious reasons, have not announced it." But Beijing never did.

    In Washington, Nixon analysed the situation thus: 'If the Russians get away with facing down the Chinese and the Indians get away with licking the Pakistanis...we may be looking down the gun barrel.' Nixon was not sure about China. Did they really intend to start a military action against India?

    Soviet Union / Russian Role in the Indo Pakistan 1971 War.


    As India had decided to go on with the war, and Indira Gandhi had failed to gain American support and sympathy for the Bengalis who were being tortured in East Pakistan, she finally took a hard move and on August 9, signed a treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation with Soviet Union.

    The State Department historian says, 'in the perspective of Washington, the crisis ratcheted up a dangerous notch, India and the Soviet Union have signed a treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation.' It was a shock to America as this was what they feared, expansion of Soviet influence in South Asia. They feared that involvement of Soviet Union could sabotage their plan.

    On December 4, just one day after Pakistan raided Indian airfields in Kashmir and Punjab declaring war on India, America's proxy involvement in the war was becoming clear. Thinking that the Soviet Union might enter the war if they come to know this, which could cause a lot of destruction to Pakistan and American equipment given to Pakistan, US ambassador to the United Nations George H W Bush [later 41st president of the United States and father of George Bush] introduced a resolution in the UN Security Council, calling for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of armed forces by India and Pakistan. Believing India can win the war and Indira Gandhi being determined to protect the interest of Bengalis, Soviet Union vetoed out the resolution, thus letting India fight for the cause. Nixon and Kissinger pressurized Soviets to a very extent but luck did not support them.

    On 3rd December, 1971, the World was shaken by another war between India and Pakistan. Pakistani airforce raided Indian cities and airstrips. The Indian PM, Indira Gandhi, brought the country in the state of emergency and ordered Indian army to reflect the aggression. Fierce military operations developed on the ground, in the air and in the sea.

    Historic document: "Confidential. December, 10, 1971. Moscow. For the DM Marshal Andrey Grechko.

    According to the information from our ambassador in Delhi, in the very first day of the conflict the Indian destroyer 'Rajput' had sunk a Pakistani submarine with deep bombing. On December, 4 and 9, the speed boats of India had destroyed and damaged 10 Pakistani battle ships and vessels by Soviet anti ship P-15 missiles. In addition 12 Pakistani oil storage were burned in flame."

    Confidential - The Commander of the Military Intelligence Service Gen. Pyotr Ivashutin.

    "The Soviet Intelligence has reported that the English operative connection has come nearer to territorial India, water led by an aircraft carrier “Eagle” [On December 10]. For helping friendly India, Soviet government has directed a group of ships under the command of contr-admiral V. Kruglyakov."

    Vladimir Kruglyakov, the former (1970-1975) Commander of the 10th Operative Battle Group (Pacific Fleet) remembers:

    "I was ordered by the Chief Commander to track the British Navy's advancement, I positioned our battleships in the Bay of Bengal and watched for the British carrier "Eagle".

    But Soviet Union didn't have enough force to resist if they encountered the British Carrier. Therefore, to support the existing Soviet fleet in the Bay of Bengal, Soviet cruisers, destroyers and nuclear submarines, equipped with anti ship missiles, were sent from Vladivostok.

    In reaction English Navy retreated and went South to Madagascar.

    Soon the news of American carrier Enterprise and USS Tripoli's advancement towards Indian water came.

    V. Kruglyakov “ I had obtained the order from the commander-in-chief not to allow the advancement of the American fleet to the military bases of India”

    "We encircled them and aimed the missiles at the 'Enterprise'. We had blocked their way and didn't allow them to head anywhere, neither to Karachi, nor to Chittagong or Dhaka".

    The Soviet ships had small range rockets (only upto 300 KM). Therefore, to hold the opponent under the range, commanders ran risks of going as near to the enemy as possible.

    "The Chief Commander had ordered me to lift the submarines and bring them to the surface so that it can be pictured by the American spy satellites or can be seen by the American Navy!' It was done to demonstrate, that we had all the needed things in Indian Ocean, including the nuclear submarines. I had lifted them, and they recognized it. Then, we intercepted the American communication. The commander of the Carrier Battle Group was then the counter-admiral Dimon Gordon. He sent the report to the 7th American Fleet Commander: 'Sir, we are too late. There are Russian nuclear submarines here, and a big collection of battleships'.

    Americans returned and couldn't do anything. Soviet Union had also threatened China that, if they ever opened a front against India on its border, they will receive a tough response from North.

    The war ended with the surrender of Pakistani army as they missed American help due to quick Russians who blocked both America and China from preventing India to advance. With this, a new country named Bangladesh was formed, which was recognized by the whole world and by Pakistan next year on Shimla Agreement.

    Sources:
    1971 War: How the US tried to corner India
    Volume XI of the Foreign Relations of the United States by US State Department
    December 1971: Indo-Pakistani conflict at sea - IV
    "New Twist In "Crush India" Propaganda Campaign"
    Source: 1971 India Pakistan War: Role of Russia, China, America and Britain | The World Reporter: News Opinion and Analysis

    So like I said earlier I just wanted to know what could have happened if the following was happened.

    1. So what would have happened if the backup force that was sent from Vladivostok didn't reach on time.

    2. Considering the above scenario , If USS Enterprise has made it's way to Dhaka or even some part of then East Pakistan and confronted the Indian Army along with East Pakistan force how could have that altered the course of the war ??

    3. If China despite the threat by Russia joined hands with US,Pakistan & Britain , what impact could that have in the regional politics and shaping the modern India ??

    I understand this topic might have been discussed gazillion times. But I still want to get different perspective of experts from across the globe :). Thank you.

  • #2
    Hate to tell you this but India and Pakistan were not serious enough for China, USSR, nor the US to commit major combat forces, not when we were staring at WWIII between the USSR and China and NATO was then on the weak end of that confrontation.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Hate to tell you this but India and Pakistan were not serious enough for China, USSR, nor the US to commit major combat forces, not when we were staring at WWIII between the USSR and China and NATO was then on the weak end of that confrontation.
      But sir, at that time when USA was so worried about the the spreading influence of USSR in the SE Asia. I am sure you know that USSR and India had signed twenty-year Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation in August 1971. And Articles 8, 9, and 10 of the treaty committed the parties "to abstain from providing any assistance to any third party that engages in armed conflict with the other" and "in the event of either party being subjected to an attack or threat thereof . . . to immediately enter into mutual consultations."

      So USSR had to honour that which it did during 1971 conflict and sent a significant amount of troops for India's aid and as the article quoted

      Vladimir Kruglyakov, the former (1970-1975) Commander of the 10th Operative Battle Group (Pacific Fleet)

      “ I had obtained the order from the commander-in-chief not to allow the advancement of the American fleet to the military bases of India”
      That shows how committed USSR was. Moreover ,I believe, it must have been more related to their ego and pride. So IMHO USSR and USA would have gone to any length.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by commander View Post
        That shows how committed USSR was. Moreover ,I believe, it must have been more related to their ego and pride. So IMHO USSR and USA would have gone to any length.
        Any confrontation at sea between usn and soviet navy in 1971 can end in only one way, the soviets lose badly .
        J'ai en marre.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by 1979 View Post
          Any confrontation at sea between usn and soviet navy in 1971 can end in only one way, the soviets lose badly .
          But didn't USSR Navy stopped USN from advancing in the Indian Ocean ??? If USN was so mighty that time despite having biggest aircraft carrier USS Enterprise deployed to the region what did the USN achieve ???

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by commander View Post
            But didn't USSR Navy stopped USN from advancing in the Indian Ocean ??? If USN was so mighty that time despite having biggest aircraft carrier USS Enterprise deployed to the region what did the USN achieve ???
            The USN did what it was ordered to do, the USSR didnt stop them from doing anything. Their orders were from the US gov't and they didn't include going into action. The USN did exactly what it set out to do, deploy in the Indian ocean with a super carrier battle group. Their prescence there made the Soviets refrain from interveening..
            sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
            If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
              The USN did what it was ordered to do, the USSR didnt stop them from doing anything. Their orders were from the US gov't and they didn't include going into action. The USN did exactly what it set out to do, deploy in the Indian ocean with a super carrier battle group. Their prescence there made the Soviets refrain from interveening..
              So you mean to say that the Enterprise was sent to the Bay Of Bengal to deter the Soviets? There is no evidence to suggest that the soviets were planning on intervening in the war. Apparently soviet submarines might have been shadowing the Enterprise CBG which the Enterprise was aware of. But that was in response to the Enterprise being sent there, not the other way round.

              Besides, why would the soviets want to interfere in the first place? They had no ability to shape the ground war, which was going India's way in any case. And the Indian navy was pretty much unchallenged in the east before the Enterprise showed up.

              Whatever the Enterprise was there for, it didn't have anything to do with the soviets. It was meant as a pressure tactic to make India agree to a ceasefire before the Pakistanis were routed in the east. It might have been effective had the CBG arrived earlier or the war stretched on for longer.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                The USN did what it was ordered to do, the USSR didnt stop them from doing anything. Their orders were from the US gov't and they didn't include going into action. The USN did exactly what it set out to do, deploy in the Indian ocean with a super carrier battle group. Their prescence there made the Soviets refrain from interveening..
                I am quoting from the article here

                The commander of the Carrier Battle Group was then the counter-admiral Dimon Gordon. He sent the report to the 7th American Fleet Commander: 'Sir, we are too late. There are Russian nuclear submarines here, and a big collection of battleships'.
                Here Admiral Dimon Gordon's statements establish that then US President Nixon and Kissinger indeed had intentions to create some damage to the Indian Military or Navy. If not why send such a big fleet to the Indian ocean ?? Just to scare India by doing nothing ??

                Comment


                • #9
                  From the way I read the article above, the USS Enterprise was sent to influence India and its allies (the Soviets) actions in that conflict, but it was not ordered to intervene - it was a show of strength and resolve - not a combat mission.

                  it didn't have anything to do with the soviets
                  Why did the Soviets aim missiles at it?

                  V. Kruglyakov “ I had obtained the order from the commander-in-chief not to allow the advancement of the American fleet to the military bases of India”

                  "We encircled them and aimed the missiles at the 'Enterprise'. We had blocked their way and didn't allow them to head anywhere, neither to Karachi, nor to Chittagong or Dhaka".

                  The Soviet ships had small range rockets (only upto 300 KM). Therefore, to hold the opponent under the range, commanders ran risks of going as near to the enemy as possible.

                  The Chief Commander had ordered me to lift the submarines and bring them to the surface so that it can be pictured by the American spy satellites or can be seen by the American Navy!' It was done to demonstrate, that we had all the needed things in Indian Ocean, including the nuclear submarines. I had lifted them, and they recognized it. Then, we intercepted the American communication. The commander of the Carrier Battle Group was then the counter-admiral Dimon Gordon. He sent the report to the 7th American Fleet Commander: 'Sir, we are too late. There are Russian nuclear submarines here, and a big collection of battleships'
                  sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                  If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by commander View Post
                    I am quoting from the article here



                    Here Admiral Dimon Gordon's statements establish that then US President Nixon and Kissinger indeed had intentions to create some damage to the Indian Military or Navy. If not why send such a big fleet to the Indian ocean ?? Just to scare India by doing nothing ??
                    Sending the fleet isn't doing nothing, and taking no combat actions was what they decided to do given the way the situation developed. Nixon and Kissenger were recorded and their crude laugage was revealed much later.
                    sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                    If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                      Why did the Soviets aim missiles at it?
                      Because they believed (just like the Indians did) that the Enterprise was going to attack the Indian Navy. The Enterprise was sent to threaten and pressurize the India and the soviet ships were sent to deter the Enterprise from actually carrying out an attack.

                      There was no chance of any soviet intervention in the Indo-Pak war unless the US intervened first. The Indian army didn't need any help in East Pakistan and the soviets were in no position to provide any even if it did. The Pakistani navy was pretty much absent in the east.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                        Sending the fleet isn't doing nothing, and taking no combat actions was what they decided to do given the way the situation developed. Nixon and Kissenger were recorded and their crude laugage was revealed much later.
                        But considering the fact President Nixon was all in to somehow stop the East Pakistan separation I suspect their primary intention was just to station the fleet in the bay of bengal

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                        • #13
                          What I hear is we are all agreeing on the main points and saying things differently - it was a bunch of posturing and threatening without any follow through on the part of the US and USSR. That is a good thing too. The what if of it was that the USSR and US could have gotten into a war over this, but that didn't happen.
                          sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                          If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The only way the US would actually have gone to war requires a rewrite beginning in 1968. In the end not much changes vis a vis India and Pakistan.

                            1968, a US military emboldened by the collapse of the Viet Cong after the 68 catches a couple of lucky breaks in the media at home that ignites the public behind the war for the first time (attack on the embassy supersedes the shooting of the VC spy) and the US begins a massive offensive before the NVA can replace the fallen Viet Cong. This includes the type of air strikes and harbor mining we would see during Operation linebacker By 1970 the war is won and the added US prestige of the victory combined with the Sino-Soviet problems pushes the Soviets to seek a reprisal and North Korean infiltrators hit several US bases in South Korea in early 1971. The raids off a silent war in Korea which is just winding down as the Indians and Pakistanis start to face off again.

                            The silent war saw raid for raid. The intial NK raid was followed by US air strikes that sank the USS Pueblo as well as several NK warships. The Soviets deployed trying to protect their vassal but quickly found themselves in a box created by several carriers among them Forrestall, Constellation, Ranger, Kitty Hawk and the Big E in what was being called Doodle Station a play on words on the now vacant Yankee station off the coast of Vietnam. At any given time day or night the Soviet flottilla could count 40 or more American war planes in an orbit around their ships. The Soviet counter using November and Echo class subs had failed miserably and one after another 6 Soviet subs had been flogged to the surface with merciless active pinging, none of them reached a US carrier. Rumors also report 2 NK DE subs left port but never returned... The silent war also saw several artillery exchanges and a couple of platoon sized fights inside the DMZ but overall neither side wanted a full scale war.

                            Boxed in and forced out again the Soviets said they were prepared to back India verses Pakistan but the US no longer had faith in Soviet promises. The force that failed in North Korea was blocked from the BoB by the Kitty Hawk and Forrestall while the Ranger took up station near the Straits of Mallacca. With her flanks guarded the Big E sailed in to the BoB prepared to save East Pakistan and the Constellation was sailing for the Western side of the Sub continent.

                            This wasn't a bluff, the US was feeling her oats and mission number 1 was sinking the INS Vikrant which was blockading East Pakistan. The Alpha Strike launched by the US would be the Cold War's only real use of US naval air power in its intended role. The Vikrant's Hawker Sea Hawks proved to be no match for the swarm of sparrow missiles the Big E's Phantoms were able to salvo towards them. By the time the A-6 intruders arrived the Indian fighters were either shot down or running for India. The Vikrant and her escorting Frigates managed to down 3 intruders but overall the AAA fire was ineffective due to heavy jamming by the escorting EA-6 Prowlers. The Vikrant took several bomb hits and was set ablaze, also sunk was one of the escorting frigates. When the second strike arrived a few hours later it was called off when the Vikrant was obviously a total loss, down by the stern with her two remaining escorts engaged in obvious rescue operations.

                            As expected the Soviet forces were not willing to engage the USN in a suicide battle or risk WWIII for India. In New Delhi the atmosphere was tense, did India really want a war with the US? Plans were made to assault Diego Garcia to draw the US navy out of the Bay of Bengal but events passed it up. Despite the US mastery of the seas the Pakistani Army in East Pakistan folded like a house of cards. The air strikes the US could have brought to bear were not going to be heavy enough to stop the lightning advances of the Indian Army and the Constellation was still a few days from being able to deploy when the Pakistani government threw in the towel.

                            Post war the Indian Navy lost a huge amoutn of prestige and the government decided that the best way to spend military funds was on the air force and army. The extra funding combined with bargain basement prices on Soviet kit allowed the already superior Indian Army to gain an even larger technical advantage over their Pakistani cousins. This when combined with Smiling Bhudda sent the Pakistanis into a tizzy and they began demanding more US arms. However watergate combined with the oil embargo had finally defalted the US sails and the election of Jimmy Carter left Pakistan virtually in the dark and forced them ever more towards China.

                            For their part, the Soviets abandoned Asia to focus on Africa, Latin America and the Arab states. They never invade Afghanistan, the US had been willing to fight over Pakistan once and the Soviet premier was not willing to risk it again. Instead the Soviets were content to gain back some prestige in Africa, support Saddam against Iran and fund numerous wars and projects in Africa and Latin America which lead to Soviet victories in Nicaragua, Libya, Eithiopia and Somalia.

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                            • #15
                              And India would forever see US as an enemy.

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