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Emerging Crisis in South America

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  • Emerging Crisis in South America

    Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks and months

    Bye-Bye Bolivia?
    by Dr. Jack Wheeler
    To The Point News Thursday, April 7, 2005

    Dr. Jack Wheeler runs To The Point News, described as "An Oasis for Rational Conservatives." Back in April 2005, Wheeler said serious trouble was coming to Bolivia - and recent events show he was on to something. We didn't get the scoop as fast as his subscribers, but we've republished it now with permission.

    This map of Bolivia may be about to become obsolete:

    (Attachment 1)

    For some time now, a lot of Bolivians have been conducting a "Gas War," blocking roads, demonstrating in cities like El Alto and Cochabamba to prevent the export of Bolivian natural gas by foreign companies. The fellow coordinating the protests is Evo Morales, a Marxist protégé of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, the leader of the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) Party, and also the leader of coca leaf growers (the stuff that's made into cocaine). The protests brought down the presidency of Gonzalo Sanchez do Lozada in October 2003 and continue to escalate: 820 in the last 17 months. The current government of Sanchez's successor Carlos Mesa in teetering.

    There's just one problem for Morales and Chavez. The Bolivians who are protesting are not the Bolivians who live where the gas is. Bolivia is about to split in two. A topographical depiction of Bolivia suggests why:

    (Attachment 2)

    Bolivia has gigantic reserves of natural gas, over 50 trillion cubic feet proven so far and counting. Foreign oil companies have invested over $3.5 billion in developing its fields, particularly Petrobras in Brazil. A 2,000-mile long pipeline from Bolivia supplies 60% of Brazil's gas consumption. Argentina gets 200,000 cubic yards of Bolivian gas a day.

    All of these reserves are in the lowlands of the east, known as the "Media Luna" or Half-Moon. The people who live in the lowland states of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Beni are predominantly Europeans (e.g., Spanish, Italian, German extraction). These states, with only 20% of Bolivia's population (total 8.8 million) account for all of Bolivia's gas production, and well over half of the country's manufacturing and agriculture.

    The other 80% live in the highlands of the Andes mountains, in the Altiplano or Andean valleys such as the Yungas and Cochabamba – and they are predominantly Indian, mostly Quechua or Aymara. Led by Evo Morales, a majority of them are demanding the seizure and nationalization of the gas reserves and production facilities in the lowlands. His MAS Party is being financed by Hugo Chavez, who sees himself as Fidel Castro's intellectual heir and is attempting to Marxist-revolutionize all of South America.

    This does not sit well with the prosperous and anti-Marxist Cruceños (the folks in Santa Cruz, the lowlands' center), who have come to despise the ruling elite in the capital city of La Paz (and who are thus called Paceños), so much so that they have forced President Mesa to hold a referendum in June, whereby the Cruceños get to vote for their autonomy from the national government.

    It also does not sit well with the leaders of Bolivia's neighbors, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. Even though they are leftists themselves, they are sick and tired of Chavez's antics and his growing threat to their economies. Thus it was no coincidence that shortly after Mesa announced the autonomy referendum last month, Donald Rumsfeld flew to Buenos Aires to confer with Argentina's Defense Minister Jose Pampuro on March 22, and one week later Argentine Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa flew to Washington to meet Condoleezza Rice.

    The focus was how to coordinate an anti-Chavez strategy, given Chavez's recent massive arms purchases from Russia and Spain. A key item on the agendas was how to handle the impending disintegration of Bolivia, and protecting Argentina and Brazil's gas supplies, which necessitates supporting the Cruceños.

    Autonomy for Santa Cruz and the other lowland states is an intermediate step to full independence, recognized by (and eventually autonomously absorbed into) Argentina and Brazil. Evo Morales and the Paceños will be stuck up there by their lonesomes in the Andes.

    Since its inception, Bolivia has been a failed state. Prior to independence in 1825, it was called Upper Peru. Since 1825, it has experienced over 200 – yes, two hundred – revolutions, coups, and counter-coups. That's more than one government a year for the last 180 years! It became landlocked by losing a war (the War of the Pacific, 1879-1883) with Chile, which annexed Bolivia's entire Antofagasta coastline, and still more territory in a disastrous war (the Chaco War, 1933-1935) with Paraguay. Now it's about to be tossed into history's dust-bin. After Argentina and Brazil make their territorial deal with the Media Luna, probably Peru will end up annexing the rest.

    It is cosmically ironic that an anti-Marxist pro-freedom strategy against Fidel Castro's protégés is being launched in Santa Cruz, Bolivia – for that is where Castro's most famous agent and Marxist icon Ché Guevara tried to start his Communist revolution – and where it ended on October 9, 1967. Today, there are no more pro-America, pro-freedom, and anti-Marxist folks in all South America than those in Santa Cruz. Let us wish the Cruceños well.

    (Oh, what about Bolivia's Army – won't it prevent Santa Cruz from going independent by military force? Nope, the officer corps is dominated by Cruceños. Morales and Chavez are out of luck again.)

    http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006897.php#more
    Attached Files

  • #2
    Update

    Bolivian Leader Quits, Citing Mass Protests

    By THE NEW YORK TIMES
    Published: June 7, 2005

    BOGOTÁ, Colombia, June 6 - With escalating protests paralyzing his country, President Carlos Mesa of Bolivia announced his resignation Monday night in a televised address.

    Explaining that protests had made Bolivia ungovernable, Mr. Mesa said, "My responsibility is to say this is as far as I can go.

    "For that reason, it is my decision to present my resignation as president of the republic."

    The frequent protests have picked up momentum since May 17, when Congress sharply raised taxes on the foreign energy companies that flocked to Bolivia to develop its large natural gas reserves.

    The congressional action, aimed at placating a restive population, instead prompted demonstrators to carry out ever larger protests demanding expropriation of the gas industry.

    On Thursday, in an effort to defuse street protests, Mr. Mesa announced plans for the election of a citizen assembly to write a new constitution and for a national referendum on greater regional autonomy, according to television reports.

    On Monday, thousands of protesters, including Indians, miners and union members, took over the center of La Paz. The police responded by firing tear gas canisters, turning away hundreds who tried to take over Plaza Murillo, the main square where the presidency and the congressional building are situated.

    Roads were blocked throughout the country, and in La Paz, the capital, gasoline was in short supply and staples were running low, reports from Bolivia indicated.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/07/in...07bolivia.html

    Comment


    • #3
      "on the verge of civil war"

      Spectre of civil war hangs over Bolivia
      By Hal Weitzman in La Paz
      Published: June 8 2005 18:43 | Last updated: June 8 2005 18:43

      BoliviaBolivia's social tensions could deteriorate further on Thursday, raising the spectre of civil war, if the head of the legislature assumes the presidency at an emergency congressional session.
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      Crippling nationwide demonstrations in recent weeks have pressed demands for nationalisation of the gas industry and there is a political divide over whether to call fresh elections.

      With the congressional palace in La Paz besieged by demonstrators, Hormando Vaca Díez, president of the Senate, has called on the legislature to convene on Thursday. Congress will vote on whether to accept President Carlos Mesa's offer on Monday night to step down.

      According to the constitution, Mr Vaca Díez is next in line. Should he refuse the presidency, it would pass to the head of the lower house and then to Eduardo Rodríguez, president of the Supreme Court, who would call new elections.

      In a poll by the Apoyo organisation, 55 per cent of respondents said they would support Mr Rodríguez and fresh elections, while only 16 per cent backed Mr Vaca Díez to serve out the rest of the presidential term, which ends in 2007.

      Less than 48 hours after forcing Mr Mesa to tender his resignation, the country's leftwing social movements have shifted their focus to pressing Mr Vaca Díez to renounce the presidency.

      On Tuesday night Mr Mesa begged Mr Vaca Díez to allow fresh elections. After a day in which police clashed with thousands of protesters in central La Paz, the president said: “The only way to avoid further violence is to hold elections.”

      Despite his official reluctance, indications suggest Mr Vaca Díez might take the job. This has alarmed the left; the congressional leader is a landowner from Santa Cruz, the south-eastern region where business leaders are politically powerful, foreign energy companies are based, and which has a strong autonomist movement.

      A consummate political operator, Mr Vaca Díez, who represents for many the discredited traditional political parties, looks to have the support of a congressional majority, the armed forces, and possibly Washington. He has shown leadership by signing into law a controversial hydrocarbons bill that Mr Mesa refused to touch.

      Mr Mesa, whose predecessor had to flee after sending troops against protesters, has resisted using force against the demonstrations. Mr Vaca D´ez might be more likely to do so. “The country is on the verge of civil war,” Mr Mesa warned on Tuesday night.

      http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c947977e-d8...00e2511c8.html

      Comment


      • #4
        Eduardo Rodriguez the new president of Bolivia

        New president takes office in Bolivia

        Jeremy Lennard and agencies
        Friday June 10, 2005

        Guardian Unlimited
        Bolivia's new interim president, Eduardo Rodriguez, took office today, promising to call early elections in an effort to calm the opposition protests that have paralysed the country for nearly a month.

        Mr Rodriguez also said he would work with congress, indigenous groups calling for the nationalisation of the energy sector and regional provinces demanding autonomy, to reunify South America's poorest country.

        "I believe Bolivians deserve better. Our children deserve better days," he told MPs. "One of my tasks will be to begin an electoral process and to continue building a democratic system that is more just."

        Mr Rodriguez, 49, became president late yesterday at the end of an emergency session of congress that was held in Bolivia's historic capital, Sucre, rather than La Paz because of concerns over security.

        Formerly the chief justice of the country's supreme court, he was automatically appointed after MPs accepted the resignation of his predecessor, Carlos Mesa, and the two congressional leaders ahead of him in the presidential pecking order - the senate leader, Hormando Vaca Diez, and the house leader, Mario Cossio - declined the job.

        Demonstrators had insisted that they would not accept Mr Vaca or Mr Cossio as president because they came from discredited traditional parties that the indigenous opposition leader Evo Morales has termed the "mafia of the oligarchy".

        Congress had been deliberating for seven hours when clashes broke out between protesters and riot police in Sucre, apparently precipitating the decision-making process. The clashes began after the first death in almost a month of protests, when Coro Mayta, a 52-year-old miner, was reportedly killed at a police checkpoint near the city.

        Mr Mesa's pro-Washington government was the second to succumb to the anger of the indigenous population in recent years. It lasted only 19 months, falling amid mounting protests and violence in the streets. Bolivia's constitution stipulates that Mr Rodriguez must call a presidential election within 180 days. Mr Morales, who is an MP and head of the Movement Towards Socialism party, is likely to be a leading candidate.

        In La Paz, protesters demanding early elections danced in the streets while Mr Mesa cleared his desk at the presidential palace.

        "This decision will work to bring about the pacification of the country," he said. "I wish my successor the greatest success. Now may the country return to normalcy."

        Mr Rodriguez said he would try to organise a "constitutional assembly" - another of the protesters' demands - to provide poor and indigenous groups with a greater say in national politics, examine demands to nationalise Bolivia's oil industry and study regional aspirations for greater autonomy.

        During their protests, activists seized several oilfield installations, crippling the national economy and leaving La Paz short of fuel and food. They also blockaded roads around the capital and held daily marches.

        The tension in Bolivia prior to the naming of Mr Rodriguez as president was such that Spain sent a plane to neighbouring Peru ready to pick up its nationals while the US embassy issued a travel warning and authorised the departure of all nonessential staff.

        http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,38...103681,00.html

        Comment


        • #5
          HI leader,
          My understanding of the problem is people r very poor there & so they have demanded that govt should nationalise the gas co. & also supplied gas at subsidies rates to the common man. But the bbc report said that only minority of the population is invovled & the drive is from richer state/province for self rule or more autonomy ie it is political turmoil. Do u have anything more on this leader?
          Hala Madrid!!

          Comment


          • #6
            Its chaos in the streets. A friend of mine went down there as part of a medical aid program, they were in Quito, Ecuador and had to be escorted to the airport by a company of toops.

            They also have a whole boatload of troubles in Mexico, the Tijuana police chief was killed after only 9 hours on the job, 4 officers gunned down in Nuevo Lardeo and 2 bodies (homicide) found floating in the Rio Grande by El Paso.

            Comment


            • #7
              Why so much of unstability in south american countries?
              Hala Madrid!!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by indianguy4u
                Why so much of unstability in south american countries?

                As per european standard operating procedure, after Spain depleted them of all natural resources, they left them high and dry. They have no money and no way to get money. The soils are usually poor for growing crops. The few people who have and kind of money are usually decendents of Spanish officials, military officials, or criminals. Those in positions of power want their slice of the pie with little reguard for the average citizen.
                F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: The Honda Accord of fighters.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BenRoethig
                  As per european standard operating procedure, after Spain depleted them of all natural resources, they left them high and dry. They have no money and no way to get money. The soils are usually poor for growing crops.

                  The few people who have and kind of money are usually decendents of Spanish officials, military officials, or criminals. Those in positions of power want their slice of the pie with little reguard for the average citizen.
                  Lat Am has bountiful natural resources. That is not the answer. That's an incorrect dependency theory thesis.

                  Second paragraph very true.

                  I would also point to the lack of a democratic system and culture. The spanish system encouraged centralism. So when they were kicked out, Lat Am degenerated into caciquism instead of changing the society and institutions into more democratic ones. Keep in mind that the first "democratic" state according to the "Ollen" system was Venezuela in the early 60's. Less than half a decade.

                  Also, the heterogeneity of the peoples and the related cleavages.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    As fas as I know, neither Venzuela nor Columbia at least lack natural resources. Corruption is a huge problem. Very rich and very poor peole living side by side. Leading to extremist political movements from the right and the left.

                    At least in Columbia there is trend to "private milita" or paramiltias which are open to hire from multinationals to clean and secure towns, resources and control mostly the drug market. The government is ineffective to control them. Although there exist rebells from the left side fighting a fight against the government and the paramiltias.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      First of all, hello everyone, this is my first post on this site.

                      As someone who works extensively in the security and diplomatic fields in the region, my opinion on the regional situation is a confluence of the following:

                      1. An assertive Brazillian regional power that seeks to restrain the US while fulfilling its historic ambitions to regional preminence and lay claim to international leadership of South America. MERCOSUR has become its sphere of influence.

                      2. A radicalized Venezuela that seeks to overthrow and smash the existing political and economic order of the region, and replace it with a social and economically radicalized order permanently hostile to the US.

                      3. the lack of US leadership in the region since September 11, 2001. The US failure to maintain regional order has unleashed the ambitions of the regional powers.

                      4. Social and political radicalization arising from the frustration of lack of benefits for the masses from economic liberalization. This is especially prevalent in the Andes region.

                      5. All of this is occuring in the context of the region's failure to come to grips with the deleterious effects of narco-terrorism.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Its important to remember that not ALL S.A countries are so unstable. In example, Chile has the lowest corruption in SA and amongst the lowest in the world, right behind USA and beating some great countries like France, Spain, and Japan. Also has one of the highest economic growth rates in the world. Dont get me wrong, its not perfect and it can improve a lot but its getting better. Not sure but i think Uruguay is doing good too.

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                        • #13
                          Yanez, you are absolutly correct. Chile is the most stable country in the region, possibly accompanied by Brazil.

                          The danger for Chile is that its success has created resentment throughout the region, not to mention the challenges posed by its historic rivals and adversaries, Peru and Bolivia and the threat posed by thier political radicalization.

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