Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks and months
Bye-Bye Bolivia?
by Dr. Jack Wheeler
To The Point News Thursday, April 7, 2005
Dr. Jack Wheeler runs To The Point News, described as "An Oasis for Rational Conservatives." Back in April 2005, Wheeler said serious trouble was coming to Bolivia - and recent events show he was on to something. We didn't get the scoop as fast as his subscribers, but we've republished it now with permission.
This map of Bolivia may be about to become obsolete:
(Attachment 1)
For some time now, a lot of Bolivians have been conducting a "Gas War," blocking roads, demonstrating in cities like El Alto and Cochabamba to prevent the export of Bolivian natural gas by foreign companies. The fellow coordinating the protests is Evo Morales, a Marxist protégé of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, the leader of the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) Party, and also the leader of coca leaf growers (the stuff that's made into cocaine). The protests brought down the presidency of Gonzalo Sanchez do Lozada in October 2003 and continue to escalate: 820 in the last 17 months. The current government of Sanchez's successor Carlos Mesa in teetering.
There's just one problem for Morales and Chavez. The Bolivians who are protesting are not the Bolivians who live where the gas is. Bolivia is about to split in two. A topographical depiction of Bolivia suggests why:
(Attachment 2)
Bolivia has gigantic reserves of natural gas, over 50 trillion cubic feet proven so far and counting. Foreign oil companies have invested over $3.5 billion in developing its fields, particularly Petrobras in Brazil. A 2,000-mile long pipeline from Bolivia supplies 60% of Brazil's gas consumption. Argentina gets 200,000 cubic yards of Bolivian gas a day.
All of these reserves are in the lowlands of the east, known as the "Media Luna" or Half-Moon. The people who live in the lowland states of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Beni are predominantly Europeans (e.g., Spanish, Italian, German extraction). These states, with only 20% of Bolivia's population (total 8.8 million) account for all of Bolivia's gas production, and well over half of the country's manufacturing and agriculture.
The other 80% live in the highlands of the Andes mountains, in the Altiplano or Andean valleys such as the Yungas and Cochabamba – and they are predominantly Indian, mostly Quechua or Aymara. Led by Evo Morales, a majority of them are demanding the seizure and nationalization of the gas reserves and production facilities in the lowlands. His MAS Party is being financed by Hugo Chavez, who sees himself as Fidel Castro's intellectual heir and is attempting to Marxist-revolutionize all of South America.
This does not sit well with the prosperous and anti-Marxist Cruceños (the folks in Santa Cruz, the lowlands' center), who have come to despise the ruling elite in the capital city of La Paz (and who are thus called Paceños), so much so that they have forced President Mesa to hold a referendum in June, whereby the Cruceños get to vote for their autonomy from the national government.
It also does not sit well with the leaders of Bolivia's neighbors, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. Even though they are leftists themselves, they are sick and tired of Chavez's antics and his growing threat to their economies. Thus it was no coincidence that shortly after Mesa announced the autonomy referendum last month, Donald Rumsfeld flew to Buenos Aires to confer with Argentina's Defense Minister Jose Pampuro on March 22, and one week later Argentine Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa flew to Washington to meet Condoleezza Rice.
The focus was how to coordinate an anti-Chavez strategy, given Chavez's recent massive arms purchases from Russia and Spain. A key item on the agendas was how to handle the impending disintegration of Bolivia, and protecting Argentina and Brazil's gas supplies, which necessitates supporting the Cruceños.
Autonomy for Santa Cruz and the other lowland states is an intermediate step to full independence, recognized by (and eventually autonomously absorbed into) Argentina and Brazil. Evo Morales and the Paceños will be stuck up there by their lonesomes in the Andes.
Since its inception, Bolivia has been a failed state. Prior to independence in 1825, it was called Upper Peru. Since 1825, it has experienced over 200 – yes, two hundred – revolutions, coups, and counter-coups. That's more than one government a year for the last 180 years! It became landlocked by losing a war (the War of the Pacific, 1879-1883) with Chile, which annexed Bolivia's entire Antofagasta coastline, and still more territory in a disastrous war (the Chaco War, 1933-1935) with Paraguay. Now it's about to be tossed into history's dust-bin. After Argentina and Brazil make their territorial deal with the Media Luna, probably Peru will end up annexing the rest.
It is cosmically ironic that an anti-Marxist pro-freedom strategy against Fidel Castro's protégés is being launched in Santa Cruz, Bolivia – for that is where Castro's most famous agent and Marxist icon Ché Guevara tried to start his Communist revolution – and where it ended on October 9, 1967. Today, there are no more pro-America, pro-freedom, and anti-Marxist folks in all South America than those in Santa Cruz. Let us wish the Cruceños well.
(Oh, what about Bolivia's Army – won't it prevent Santa Cruz from going independent by military force? Nope, the officer corps is dominated by Cruceños. Morales and Chavez are out of luck again.)
http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006897.php#more
Bye-Bye Bolivia?
by Dr. Jack Wheeler
To The Point News Thursday, April 7, 2005
Dr. Jack Wheeler runs To The Point News, described as "An Oasis for Rational Conservatives." Back in April 2005, Wheeler said serious trouble was coming to Bolivia - and recent events show he was on to something. We didn't get the scoop as fast as his subscribers, but we've republished it now with permission.
This map of Bolivia may be about to become obsolete:
(Attachment 1)
For some time now, a lot of Bolivians have been conducting a "Gas War," blocking roads, demonstrating in cities like El Alto and Cochabamba to prevent the export of Bolivian natural gas by foreign companies. The fellow coordinating the protests is Evo Morales, a Marxist protégé of Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez, the leader of the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) Party, and also the leader of coca leaf growers (the stuff that's made into cocaine). The protests brought down the presidency of Gonzalo Sanchez do Lozada in October 2003 and continue to escalate: 820 in the last 17 months. The current government of Sanchez's successor Carlos Mesa in teetering.
There's just one problem for Morales and Chavez. The Bolivians who are protesting are not the Bolivians who live where the gas is. Bolivia is about to split in two. A topographical depiction of Bolivia suggests why:
(Attachment 2)
Bolivia has gigantic reserves of natural gas, over 50 trillion cubic feet proven so far and counting. Foreign oil companies have invested over $3.5 billion in developing its fields, particularly Petrobras in Brazil. A 2,000-mile long pipeline from Bolivia supplies 60% of Brazil's gas consumption. Argentina gets 200,000 cubic yards of Bolivian gas a day.
All of these reserves are in the lowlands of the east, known as the "Media Luna" or Half-Moon. The people who live in the lowland states of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Beni are predominantly Europeans (e.g., Spanish, Italian, German extraction). These states, with only 20% of Bolivia's population (total 8.8 million) account for all of Bolivia's gas production, and well over half of the country's manufacturing and agriculture.
The other 80% live in the highlands of the Andes mountains, in the Altiplano or Andean valleys such as the Yungas and Cochabamba – and they are predominantly Indian, mostly Quechua or Aymara. Led by Evo Morales, a majority of them are demanding the seizure and nationalization of the gas reserves and production facilities in the lowlands. His MAS Party is being financed by Hugo Chavez, who sees himself as Fidel Castro's intellectual heir and is attempting to Marxist-revolutionize all of South America.
This does not sit well with the prosperous and anti-Marxist Cruceños (the folks in Santa Cruz, the lowlands' center), who have come to despise the ruling elite in the capital city of La Paz (and who are thus called Paceños), so much so that they have forced President Mesa to hold a referendum in June, whereby the Cruceños get to vote for their autonomy from the national government.
It also does not sit well with the leaders of Bolivia's neighbors, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. Even though they are leftists themselves, they are sick and tired of Chavez's antics and his growing threat to their economies. Thus it was no coincidence that shortly after Mesa announced the autonomy referendum last month, Donald Rumsfeld flew to Buenos Aires to confer with Argentina's Defense Minister Jose Pampuro on March 22, and one week later Argentine Foreign Minister Rafael Bielsa flew to Washington to meet Condoleezza Rice.
The focus was how to coordinate an anti-Chavez strategy, given Chavez's recent massive arms purchases from Russia and Spain. A key item on the agendas was how to handle the impending disintegration of Bolivia, and protecting Argentina and Brazil's gas supplies, which necessitates supporting the Cruceños.
Autonomy for Santa Cruz and the other lowland states is an intermediate step to full independence, recognized by (and eventually autonomously absorbed into) Argentina and Brazil. Evo Morales and the Paceños will be stuck up there by their lonesomes in the Andes.
Since its inception, Bolivia has been a failed state. Prior to independence in 1825, it was called Upper Peru. Since 1825, it has experienced over 200 – yes, two hundred – revolutions, coups, and counter-coups. That's more than one government a year for the last 180 years! It became landlocked by losing a war (the War of the Pacific, 1879-1883) with Chile, which annexed Bolivia's entire Antofagasta coastline, and still more territory in a disastrous war (the Chaco War, 1933-1935) with Paraguay. Now it's about to be tossed into history's dust-bin. After Argentina and Brazil make their territorial deal with the Media Luna, probably Peru will end up annexing the rest.
It is cosmically ironic that an anti-Marxist pro-freedom strategy against Fidel Castro's protégés is being launched in Santa Cruz, Bolivia – for that is where Castro's most famous agent and Marxist icon Ché Guevara tried to start his Communist revolution – and where it ended on October 9, 1967. Today, there are no more pro-America, pro-freedom, and anti-Marxist folks in all South America than those in Santa Cruz. Let us wish the Cruceños well.
(Oh, what about Bolivia's Army – won't it prevent Santa Cruz from going independent by military force? Nope, the officer corps is dominated by Cruceños. Morales and Chavez are out of luck again.)
http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/006897.php#more
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