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troung
06 May 11,, 02:36
India capable of US-like operation: Army chief
Lucknow, IANS
May 04, 2011
First Published: 20:26 IST(4/5/2011)
Last Updated: 20:27 IST(4/5/2011)
India capable of US-like operation: Army chief - Hindustan Times (http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-capable-of-US-like-operation-Army-chief/Article1-693425.aspx)
Indian Army chief General VK Singh on Wednesday claimed that the country's defence forces were competent to undertake an US-like operation that killed al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. "We have the capability.....If situation arises, all the three wings (army, navy and air force) are competent in ca
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rrying out such an operation," Singh replied when journalists asked whether the Indian Army could carry out an operation like the US special forces undertook to kill the world's most dreaded terrorist in Pakistan on early Monday.

Asked whether the US took any assistance from Pakistan during the operation against bin Laden, Singh said, "How can I comment on this?....it is up to Pakistan and the US to clarify on the issue."

Singh was in Lucknow to inaugurate a new block at the Sainik School in the city.

During the function, Singh called upon the students to serve the country by joining the armed forces.

troung
13 May 11,, 02:54
Pakistan have been more trigger-happy with Indian aircraft
Pakistan have been more trigger-happy with Indian aircraft - India - DNA (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_pakistan-have-been-more-trigger-happy-with-indian-aircraft_1540713)
Amid the clamour for an Abbotabad-like strike by Indian commandos to eliminate Dawood Ibrahim, a former intelligence officer points out the obvious: the Pakistan army might have missed or hesitated to act against the violation of their air space by US choppers, but they would certainly have been more trigger-happy with Indian aircraft. “The US and Pakistan are on friendly terms and the US military and air force have permission to operate in their territory and air space. India does not enjoy such liberties.”

After Operation Geronimo,Indian Army chief General VK Singh was quick to come out with a statement that has become a talking point: “All arms of the military are competent to carry out such an op.” Indian Air Force chief PV Naik also said that India has the capability to carry out such surgical strikes.
What they don’t spell out are two crucial pre-requisites for such strikes: political will and intelligence. On both counts, we have reason to worry.

Former IAF chief, FH Major, who was the chief of air staff during the 26/11 attack, says our tardy response exposed the lack of command and control of the various agencies participating in the operation. “These are government ops and do not belong only to the military.”

Retired Lt Gen HS Panag, who commanded the army’s Northern Command in J&K, “There are 10 SF battalions apart from NSG and there is also a Special Frontier Force, but there is no Special Forces command. Moreover, our training and equipment are 50% that of US special forces, and we can strike only 50-70 km into Pakistan. Our SF is only used for tactical purposes during war, never strategically for special operations.”

As for gathering intelligence on Dawood, Lt Gen PC Katoch, a Special Forces para-commando who led the SF team in the Golden Temple operation, points out what we’re up against: “The CIA operates as a CTPT (counter terrorism pursuit team) in Pakistan; can India do that?”

The Indian government’s announcement in the late 90s that no intelligence agents would go across the border further limited the options before our agencies. In contrast, Barack Obama announced last year that Special Forces would be deployed in 85 countries. “The US has around 3,000 operatives in Pakistan, whereas India does not have even 300. The CIA is very much at home in Pakistan, something that India can’t achieve,” says AS Dulat, former R&AW chief. Without accurate inputs from the ground, and no access to the kind of satellite imagery available to the US, Indian intelligence would be quite severely handicapped for any covert op inside Pakistan.

Officer of Engineers
13 May 11,, 05:24
Straight operations? It was a light infantry op. India is capable of it. So is all of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact. What is left unsaid is the discovery op. That is not within Indian capabilities.

Blademaster
13 May 11,, 05:33
Straight operations? It was a light infantry op. India is capable of it. So is all of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact. What is left unsaid is the discovery op. That is not within Indian capabilities.

I think you underestimate RAW's HUMINT capabilities in that region.

Officer of Engineers
13 May 11,, 05:35
I think you underestimate RAW's HUMINT capabilities in that region.Actually, it was SIGINT that started this whole thing.

Blademaster
13 May 11,, 05:41
Actually, it was SIGINT that started this whole thing.

Actually, you may be surprised how much progress India is making on this front for that region. India has set up listening posts all across the border and setting up high altitude balloons capable of listening in to electronic communications.

Officer of Engineers
13 May 11,, 05:47
Actually, you may be surprised how much progress India is making on this front for that region. India has set up listening posts all across the border and setting up high altitude balloons capable of listening in to electronic communications.No, Hitesh, you're not getting it. American computers isolated the one signal out of millions screaming for Osama's victory as the one true courier. I don't know how many OBL sympathizers there are in PakDef but there are more pro OBL posters than there are signal analysts to determine who is a legitimate AQ worker.

It is not the quantity of intel collected, it is the quality of the intel analyst, more specifically, the intel analyzing algorithms.

Blademaster
13 May 11,, 05:57
No, Hitesh, you're not getting it. American computers isolated the one signal out of millions screaming for Osama's victory as the one true courier. I don't know how many OBL sympathizers there are in PakDef but there are more pro OBL posters than there are signal analysts to determine who is a legitimate AQ worker.

It is not the quantity of intel collected, it is the quality of the intel analyst, more specifically, the intel analyzing algorithms.

Like I said, India is making progress. Yes India is not at the level of US but at least they are starting on the road that will take India to America's level.

Dago
13 May 11,, 06:05
No, Hitesh, you're not getting it. American computers isolated the one signal out of millions screaming for Osama's victory as the one true courier. I don't know how many OBL sympathizers there are in PakDef but there are more pro OBL posters than there are signal analysts to determine who is a legitimate AQ worker.

It is not the quantity of intel collected, it is the quality of the intel analyst, more specifically, the intel analyzing algorithms.

I find it hard to believe that a computer, or yet an algorithm, determined the courier's identity, or location, or even yet a signal of a phone call. I am sure they had some HUMMINT involved to localize the people and area. Either on the receiving end or what not.

This is 101 stuff. DEA type stuff... let the small fish go, turn him, monitor him, and wait until someone contacts him. This had to do with the group they monitored, and they pinpointed the courier after coming in contact with the op that was under surveillance.

Officer of Engineers
13 May 11,, 06:08
It does NOT end with the algorithm. It STARTS with it. All the algorithms did was to reduce the volume of data to a manageable level.

Blademaster
13 May 11,, 06:20
It does NOT end with the algorithm. It STARTS with it. All the algorithms did was to reduce the volume of data to a manageable level.

I remember that after the 9/11 attacks, there were reports saying that US had the raw data that an imminent attack was coming and it was aimed at NYC but the problem was that the raw data stream was like drinking water out of a fire hose. That's when US started ramping up analysis and collection and organization of data capabilities. They basically threw money at the problem. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a tremendous amount of algorithms in the databanks that are so cutting edge and could advance the science of humanity by several decades but are so sensitive that we won't see them till like 50 years later when other technology has rendered them obsolete or redundant.

astralis
13 May 11,, 14:54
although statements such as the one by singh really don't make the indian armed forces look any better. somewhat akin to the inadequate man bragging how he's JUST as big...

much better if he just said "i will not discuss our capabilities in open forum. end of story."

nvishal
13 May 11,, 15:13
^Indian media makes you do that sometimes

S2
13 May 11,, 15:56
"Indian media makes you do that sometimes"

A gun to their head? No. It's a bad impulse of rising to bait. Both the discovery and execution were difficult ops. The political risk associated with the latter was beyond India's acceptable threshold IMV.

Discovery attained a confidence level of OBL's presence well below 100%. Still, 60% or so was far higher than previously attained thus triggering action. Not without great risk of an empty bag or operational failure from poor execution however.

Either would have led to massive egg on America's face-but only egg. Had it been India even full success would have required reprisal from Pakistan.

The execution was near flawless in design but Murphy's presence is ever-looming. Murphy prevented the capture of OBL's wives and children. We lost a treasure-trove of intel and full management of the information war as a result.

Nonetheless, the penetration of Pakistani airspace was simply marvelous. I'm unconvinced there were many other nations capable of executing such.

antimony
13 May 11,, 17:08
although statements such as the one by singh really don't make the indian armed forces look any better. somewhat akin to the inadequate man bragging how he's JUST as big...

much better if he just said "i will not discuss our capabilities in open forum. end of story."

I agree, rank stupidity on the general's part. Dr. Manmohan Singh quelled any such ideas anyway.

Double Edge
13 May 11,, 17:38
Actually, it was SIGINT that started this whole thing.
There is some confusion over WHO provided the first tip. Have seen some reports that it was the Pakistani's that did it. The US did the needful afterward.

How else do you find a needle in as big a haystack as Pakistan. You might have the best algorithms & computing power in the world but what could they do without that initial tip.

nvishal
13 May 11,, 17:39
S2, The man was talking about india's "capability" to execute such a covert operation. He's emphasising the "action" part.

Cactus
13 May 11,, 17:52
although statements such as the one by singh really don't make the indian armed forces look any better. somewhat akin to the inadequate man bragging how he's JUST as big... much better if he just said "i will not discuss our capabilities in open forum. end of story."

It serves its psy-ops purpose. Now every high-value terrorist operating out of Pakjab and POK has to worry if Indians will eventually try something similar; the highest value ones will shift westwards ~ this will at the very least lower the morale of their cadres and make some operations harder, or even better it make them Predator food :biggrin: Secondarily the Paks now have to invest in more air-defense assets, which means less money for other offensive assets.

antimony
13 May 11,, 19:15
It serves its psy-ops purpose. Now every high-value terrorist operating out of Pakjab and POK has to worry if Indians will eventually try something similar; the highest value ones will shift westwards ~ this will at the very least lower the morale of their cadres and make some operations harder, or even better it make them Predator food :biggrin: Secondarily the Paks now have to invest in more air-defense assets, which means less money for other offensive assets.

I doubt it. Such bluster has been a part of the regular vocabulary of many Indian politicians and officials. Unless it is matched by action on the ground (which I do not see happening any time soon) everyone understands that it is what it is, empty bluster. This might excite some folks on the web forums but I doubt it would rile up anyone else.

Having said that, I still find it hard to wrap my head around the complete non-response to the invasion of Pakistani air space. The Stealth helos things and interference of radar due to geography is all fine, it still sounds sorta sci-fi ish and frankly a bit scary on how much the US can achieve.

Cactus
13 May 11,, 19:39
antimony, to talk about grand operational revolutions (like the so-called CSD) is blustering (when not accompanied by revolutionary changes in the military) -- to talk of small-scale targetted raids and active wet operations is well within the realm of plausibility (when accompanied by actual capabilities of the InSOF). And I give would give additional credence to the COAS's words because of a little tab he occasionally wears, which should say something about his personal expertise on these matters. There is calculated skepticism, and then there is casual dismissal, and methinks you are treading on the later.

troung
13 May 11,, 21:36
It serves its psy-ops purpose. Now every high-value terrorist operating out of Pakjab and POK has to worry if Indians will eventually try something similar; the highest value ones will shift westwards ~ this will at the very least lower the morale of their cadres and make some operations harder, or even better it make them Predator food Secondarily the Paks now have to invest in more air-defense assets, which means less money for other offensive assets.

I don't think Dawood is terribly worried about an Indian raid.

Cactus
13 May 11,, 21:59
I don't think Dawood is terribly worried about an Indian raid.

Dawood bhai is in Karachi by most accounts, so this kinds of military raids would never have been of much concern to him (he has more to fear from his brothers and lieutenents). I was instead referring to the senior leaders of Kashmir and Pakjab based terrorist outfits: some of the wilder ones moved their camps to Khyber-Pakthunwa after disagreements with Gen Musharraf about lying low until Americans go, and have since become Predator prey.

1979
13 May 11,, 22:21
How else do you find a needle in as big a haystack as Pakistan. You might have the best algorithms & computing power in the world but what could they do without that initial tip.

somebody talked ,that is certain, on the WHO part ,I guess we would never know.

S2
13 May 11,, 22:44
"He's emphasising the "action" part."

So am I. I seriously doubt you could have penetrated Pakistani airspace undetected for the best part of 2-3 hours and conduct the raid without interference in some manner.

Double Edge
13 May 11,, 23:42
somebody talked ,that is certain, on the WHO part ,I guess we would never know.
Right, because Paksitan does not want to take any credit for this.

However if that were the case Hillary would not have thanked them from their 'assistance'.

HKDan
14 May 11,, 01:43
"He's emphasising the "action" part."

So am I. I seriously doubt you could have penetrated Pakistani airspace undetected for the best part of 2-3 hours and conduct the raid without interference in some manner.

I imagine that penetrating Pakistani airspace from the east is a completely different proposition than penetrating from the west. Over the past few years, the Pakistanis have probably become used to seeing(or not) all manner of strange aircraft coming in from the west, while their level of vigilance towards the east is unchanged.

For that reason alone, I think that India would be facing a greater challenge than the U.S. did.

Stitch
14 May 11,, 04:56
Having said that, I still find it hard to wrap my head around the complete non-response to the invasion of Pakistani air space. The Stealth helos things and interference of radar due to geography is all fine, it still sounds sorta sci-fi ish and frankly a bit scary on how much the US can achieve.

I don't think anybody will ever REALLY know how much the US can achieve; the fact that we didn't even know that those "stealth" Blackhawks existed until now (and they've probably been around for five years by now) gives you an idea of what the US is capable of.

ArtyEngineer
14 May 11,, 05:21
Nonetheless, the penetration of Pakistani airspace was simply marvelous. I'm unconvinced there were many other nations capable of executing such.

If the "Special -60 Varient Helo" was critical to the penetration of Pakistani Airspace, then I have to say the number of other nation capable of this task are ZERO. Now the UK has 7 Sqdn RAF which is a dedicated SF support unit, but with the UK's budget there is no way they have as 'Fancy" toys as the 160th SOAR. I espect this to be true of most "near peers" to the US military, im sure lots have trigger pullers on par with the best US units, buts its that whole "Support Structure" thing that raises teh US well beyond what most others could hope to accomplish.

Regards

Arty

drhuy
14 May 11,, 05:22
Right, because Paksitan does not want to take any credit for this.

However if that were the case Hillary would not have thanked them from their 'assistance'.

Because she's the sec of Department of States, she's paid to please people, not to tell the truth. In this case, she's doing the damage control regarding the relationship with Pak

S2
14 May 11,, 07:11
"I espect this to be true of most "near peers" to the US military, im sure lots have trigger pullers on par with the best US units..."

From the point of hover to reboarding I've little doubt there are many qualified to conduct the op. The target didn't prove especially difficult in any case.

nvishal
14 May 11,, 07:31
So am I. I seriously doubt you could have penetrated Pakistani airspace undetected for the best part of 2-3 hours and conduct the raid without interference in some manner.
Im just making an IMO statement because it may never be made official but i think the pakistani's knew about the raid. Again, im just speculating and have reached to this opinion after going through all the open source information made available.

I won't argue for or against it for the time being.

S2
14 May 11,, 08:41
"Again, im just speculating and have reached to this opinion after going through all the open source information made available."

What open source information provides fuel for your speculation and how did you reach your interpretation?

1979
14 May 11,, 08:53
If the "Special -60 Varient Helo" was critical to the penetration of Pakistani Airspace, then I have to say the number of other nation capable of this task are ZERO. Now the UK has 7 Sqdn RAF which is a dedicated SF support unit, but with the UK's budget there is no way they have as 'Fancy" toys as the 160th SOAR. I espect this to be true of most "near peers" to the US military, im sure lots have trigger pullers on par with the best US units, buts its that whole "Support Structure" thing that raises teh US well beyond what most others could hope to accomplish.

Regards

Arty

If you fly low enough, every helicopter is stealthy, problems seams to be having sufficient fuel, navigational equipment, radar warning receivers and still retain enough transport capacity for troops.

nvishal
14 May 11,, 08:59
What open source information provides fuel for your speculation
Moving in and out without "detection". No engagement whatsoever from the pakistani security forces being just yards away. This is suspicious.


and how did you reach your interpretation?
Instinct

S2
14 May 11,, 10:52
"Moving in and out without "detection". No engagement whatsoever from the pakistani security forces being just yards away. This is suspicious."

So are your assumptions. "...yards away..." is hyperbole to sustain the unsustainable.

"...Instinct"

Everybody has instincts. Some are more attenuated by professional training and experience than others. How about your's?:rolleyes:

Speculate as you wish but there's no way we told Pakistan that we were coming. Perhaps you've a problem with our abilities? That's understandable if so.

nvishal
14 May 11,, 11:30
S2, if i had hidden something precious in a garrison town and i received an alert about an "incident" taking place in this garrison town then wouldn't i already know what was happening? Wouldn't it not immediately hit me at that moment to know that the enemy knows about my precious?

The confusion for me is that it lasted for almost an hour and nobody came. In a garrison town!! With my precious inside it!!

What do you make of all this? Was US intentionally tipped about the whereabouts of an old retired jihadi fighter?

Yeah, so the PA took a risk. But a calculated risk. After all, US hasn't yet abandoned its ally.

S2
14 May 11,, 11:59
"...The confusion for me is that it lasted for almost an hour and nobody came. In a garrison town!! With my precious inside it!!

What do you make of all this...?"

I make your presumption the Pakistani government knew of OBL's whereabouts and, possibly, sustained his existence. I'm less certain. I make that you presume there were military barracks housing combat troops or a large contingent of military police within a stone's throw of the location. Do you know this for a fact or is this more exaggeration?

I also make that you don't understand how long it takes to react to an event of this nature. With surprise comes shock and paralysis. Calls must be made. Arms rooms opened. Troops mustered from their bunks. Assessments collected and orders given.

nvishal, I've no reason to presume that Pakistan is supportive of Al Qaeda. My reading is extensive and I've not once seen any indication that the Pakistani military and government were allied in any respect with Al Qaeda. That said, if there's fault to be found within Pakistan's security establishment with respect to this episode and I'm correct in my assessment then the Pakistani military intelligence is guilty of an act of omission.

Frankly, choosing a city such as Abbottabad is a stroke of genius in many respects. Nobody should accuse OBL of being stupid. He was, for the most part, a careful, resourceful enemy. Hiding "in plain sight" makes perfect sense and increasingly fits the profile of AQ leaders who've been captured. Secondly, when you consider Abbottabad's reputation as a so-called "garrison town" OBL may have been banking upon the residual security derived from a strong military presence and great distance from the Afghan border.

All indications I've since read suggest we thought there was about a 60% liklihood OBL was there. Had he not been we'd have suffered grievous harm to our prestige and military reputation. In retrospect, our assessment proved correct and our operation decisive.

It's clear we had no intention of sharing the operational plans with Pakistan. We simply couldn't afford his second escape. It also provided Pakistan with plausible deniability in the event the operation turned badly. This point hasn't been commonly considered because of the mission's success.

Those are my views. I'm not Special Operations but I've flown NOE at night with our pilots. They're very capable. All that appears to have happened was very achievable in my view.

Deltacamelately
14 May 11,, 13:11
Steve,

I am very interested to know whether the US Special Forces did consider the possibility of confrontation by Pak regulars and what possibly would that traslate to....
What ROEs would prevail?

Bigfella
14 May 11,, 13:26
Steve,

I am very interested to know whether the US Special Forces did consider the possibility of confrontation by Pak regulars and what possibly would that traslate to....
What ROEs would prevail?

Sir,

Can't tell you about ROEs, but apparently the possibility of a confrontation was considered. Not sure if you can get into the article without an account, so I'll reproduce in full.


article is by Eric Schmitt, Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger.

WASHINGTON — President Obama insisted that the assault force hunting down Osama bin Laden last week be large enough to fight its way out of Pakistan if confronted by hostile local police officers and troops, senior administration and military officials said Monday.

In revealing additional details about planning for the mission, senior officials also said that two teams of specialists were on standby: One to bury Bin Laden if he was killed, and a second composed of lawyers, interrogators and translators in case he was captured alive. That team was set to meet aboard a Navy ship, most likely the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson in the North Arabian Sea.

Mr. Obama’s decision to increase the size of the force sent into Pakistan shows that he was willing to risk a military confrontation with a close ally in order to capture or kill the leader of Al Qaeda.

Such a fight would have set off an even larger breach with the Pakistanis than has taken place since officials in Islamabad learned that helicopters filled with members of a Navy Seals team had flown undetected into one of their cities, and burst into a compound where Bin Laden was hiding.

One senior Obama administration official, pressed on the rules of engagement for one of the riskiest clandestine operations attempted by the C.I.A. and the military’s Joint Special Operations Command in many years, said: “Their instructions were to avoid any confrontation if at all possible. But if they had to return fire to get out, they were authorized to do it.”

The planning also illustrates how little the administration trusted the Pakistanis as they set up their operation. They also rejected a proposal to bring the Pakistanis in on the mission.

Under the original plan, two assault helicopters were going to stay on the Afghanistan side of the border waiting for a call if they were needed. But the aircraft would have been about 90 minutes away from the Bin Laden compound.

About 10 days before the raid, Mr. Obama reviewed the plans and pressed his commanders as to whether they were taking along enough forces to fight their way out if the Pakistanis arrived on the scene and tried to interfere with the operation.

That resulted in the decision to send two more helicopters carrying additional troops. These followed the two lead Black Hawk helicopters that carried the actual assault team. While there was no confrontation with the Pakistanis, one of those backup helicopters was ultimately brought in to the scene of the raid when a Black Hawk was damaged while making a hard landing.

“Some people may have assumed we could talk our way out of a jam, but given our difficult relationship with Pakistan right now, the president did not want to leave anything to chance,” said one senior administration official, who like others would not be quoted by name describing details of the secret mission. “He wanted extra forces if they were necessary.”

With tensions between the United States and Pakistan escalating since the raid, American officials on Monday sought to tamp down the divisions and pointed to some encouraging developments.

A United States official said that American investigators would soon be allowed to interview Bin Laden’s three widows, now being held by Pakistani authorities, a demand that Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, made on television talk shows on Sunday.

American officials say the widows, as well as a review of the trove of documents and other data the Seals team collected from the raid, could reveal important details, not only about Bin Laden’s life and activities since he fled into Pakistan from Afghanistan in 2001, but also information about Qaeda plots, personnel and planning.

“We believe that it is very important to maintain the cooperative relationship with Pakistan precisely because it’s in our national security interest to do so,” said the White House spokesman, Jay Carney.

In an effort to help mend the latest rupture in relations, the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, will talk soon with his counterpart, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, head of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, or ISI, “to discuss the way forward in the common fight against Al Qaeda,” an American official said.

On Sunday, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the Pakistani Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. “Mullen just wanted to check in with him,” said an American military official. “The conversation was civil, but sober, given the pressure that the general is under right now.”

In describing the mission, the officials said that American surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft were watching and listening to how Pakistan’s police forces and military responded to the raid. That determined how long the commandos could safely remain on the ground going through the compound collecting computer hard drives, thumb drives and documents.

American forces were under strict orders to avoid engaging with any Pakistani forces that responded to the commotion at the Bin Laden compound, senior administration officials said.

If a confrontation appeared imminent, there were contingency plans for senior American officials, including Admiral Mullen, to call their Pakistani counterparts to avert an armed clash.

But when he reviewed the plans, Mr. Obama voiced concern that this was not enough to protect the troops on the mission, administration officials said.

In planning for the possible capture of Bin Laden, officials decided they would take him aboard a Navy ship to preclude battles over jurisdiction.

The plan, officials said, was to do an initial interrogation for any information that might prevent a pending attack or identify the location of other Qaeda leaders.

“There was a heck of a lot of planning that went into this for almost any and all contingencies, including capture,” one senior administration official said.

In the end, the team organized to handle his death was called into duty. They did a quick forensics study of the body, washed it, and buried it at sea.

But the officials acknowledged that the mission always was weighted toward killing, given the possibility that Bin Laden would be armed or wearing an explosive vest.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/world/asia/10intel.html?_r=4

nvishal
14 May 11,, 13:31
I also make that you don't understand how long it takes to react to an event of this nature. With surprise comes shock and paralysis. Calls must be made. Arms rooms opened. Troops mustered from their bunks. Assessments collected and orders given.
My presumption is that they must have had a book already which guided them to respond in event of a surprise attack on a precious target. Not one RPG; not even a single bullet fired from the pakistani security. How is this possible?

How hard is it to fire bullets in the air from 500 yards away? But it didn't happen.

Double Edge
14 May 11,, 13:32
Because she's the sec of Department of States, she's paid to please people, not to tell the truth. In this case, she's doing the damage control regarding the relationship with Pak
So you believe there was zero Pakistani input ie
- no tip given to the US,
- US found OBL all by themselves ?

S2
14 May 11,, 14:03
"My presumption is that they must have had a book already which guided them to respond in event of a surprise attack on a precious target. Not one RPG; not even a single bullet fired from the pakistani security. How is this possible?

How hard is it to fire bullets in the air from 500 yards away? But it didn't happen."

Vulcan mind meld.

Old technique of ours.

kuku
14 May 11,, 19:41
These losers could even load the commandos from Delhi on a plane for 9 hours during mumbai.
So strage to see the killers celebrating the marriage of their daughters and sons in grand ceremonies while the victims remember the lost souls, damn ****ing shame.

drhuy
15 May 11,, 05:28
So you believe there was zero Pakistani input ie
- no tip given to the US,
- US found OBL all by themselves ?

What I believe are:

1. She's a diplomat
2. The word 'assistance' is ambiguous at best. It could refer to the assistance of the whole GWOT. Of course Pak has been offering assistance to the US for many years since 2001, and of course this raid is a part of the GWOT.
3. Finding UBL is a LONG process with myriad of information pieces that needed to bring together. It's not like someone in Pak made a phone call to the WH in the morning and then at that night SEALs stormed the place.
4. Hence, the might be input from Pak. Then what? The might be thousands of them, some from years ago, some months ago. Both the US and Pak at time might not even recognize the significance of each single input. But putting them altogether makes a complete picture. Again, it's a LONG and EXTENSIVE process. There's no such thing as a single input that lead to the final decision, only on movie. Even if there are some input from Pak, that has nothing to do with whether they knew in advance the raid.

S2
15 May 11,, 05:42
Nice summary.

S2
15 May 11,, 09:32
Major,

Good to read you and hope all's well wherever you're serving.

You've seen Bigfella's New York Time's article and understand military operations at least as well as myself so there's little doubt but that a number of contingencies were considered.

It's Chogy's considered opinion that we had fast-movers aloft loitering along the Afghan-Pak border and ready to provide top-cover for the mission egress. I presume we'd have aborted the ingress if we faced any opposition enroute. Once on site those guys would have fought IMV. I expect we also had a reaction force mounted and standing by in A-stan but they'd have been approx. one hour from reaching the scene.

Their purpose would likely have been to establish a PZ (Pickup zone) to facilitate our egress under fire.

We'd have some advantages of prior preparation and likely a fairly detailed enemy order of battle. The P.A. wouldn't really know what they were facing but would have the advantage of proximity to the target location and more forces closely available.

Let's face it, though. if matters reached that point everything has pretty much gone to sh!t and it's a case of who can escalate forces on-scene more quickly. All we'd want to do is unazz the A.O. as quickly and expeditiously as possible by hook or crook.

I'm sure phones would be buzzing between Kabul, Washington D.C. and Rawalpindi by that point.:eek:

Bigfella
15 May 11,, 09:51
Major,

Good to read you and hope all's well wherever you're serving.

You've seen Bigfella's New York Time's article and understand military operations at least as well as myself so there's little doubt but that a number of contingencies were considered.

It's Chogy's considered opinion that we had fast-movers aloft loitering along the Afghan-Pak border and ready to provide top-cover for the mission egress. I presume we'd have aborted the ingress if we faced any opposition enroute. Once on site those guys would have fought IMV. I expect we also had a reaction force mounted and standing by in A-stan but they'd have been approx. one hour from reaching the scene.

Their purpose would likely have been to establish a PZ (Pickup zone) to facilitate our egress under fire.

We'd have some advantages of prior preparation and likely a fairly detailed enemy order of battle. The P.A. wouldn't really know what they were facing but would have the advantage of proximity to the target location and more forces closely available.

Let's face it, though. if matters reached that point everything has pretty much gone to sh!t and it's a case of who can escalate forces on-scene more quickly. All we'd want to do is unazz the A.O. as quickly and expeditiously as possible by hook or crook.

I'm sure phones would be buzzing between Kabul, Washington D.C. and Rawalpindi by that point.:eek:


Looks like Chogy was on the money.



PAF detected US planes near Jalalabad border before OBL operation
Monday, May 09, 2011

ISLAMABAD: An initial investigation report has revealed that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) radars installed in Peshawar and Risalpur were functioning properly on May 2 and the movement of some half-a-dozen planes was detected near the Jalalabad border at 11 pm before the US helicopters entered Abbottabad to kill Osama bin Laden.

“One aircraft was identified as a US AWACS and the remaining five were recognised as F-18 jets of the US. These planes flew near the Pakistani border, but did not cross into the airspace of Pakistan,” the report added.

Meanwhile, the PAF formed a special investigation committee to probe into the violation of Pakistan’s airspace by the US helicopters to kill Osama bin Laden. It is the first committee formed to investigate the incident. The team will see how the Pakistani forces remained ignorant about the presence of foreign helicopters.

The committee, being headed by a group captain, has started its work by checking the record of radars thoroughly and interviewing officials who were on duty when the US helicopters violated Pakistan’s airspace.

“More such committees will be formed to unveil the facts about the Abbottabad operation,” the sources added. The committee will investigate how Pakistan’s radar system, which could detect the flights outside Pakistan’s limit, could not notice the US helicopters, which entered into Pakistan and remained there for hours. The officers of PAF will also examine the aspect whether the planes, traced by the radars, were meant to divert the attention of Pakistani forces.



PAF detected US planes near Jalalabad border before OBL operation (http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=5856&Cat=13&dt=5/9/2011)

troung
16 May 11,, 01:19
Can Indian Army pull off an operation Geronimo?
Published: Monday, May 16, 2011, 1:13 IST
By Bidanda Chengappa | Place: New Delhi | Agency: DNA
Can Indian Army pull off an operation Geronimo? - India - DNA (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/analysis_can-indian-army-pull-off-an-operation-geronimo_1543697)
The Indian military leadership has responded in its own way to ‘Operation Geronimo’, the recent US attempt to neutralise Osama bin Laden by bearding the lion in his den. The army and air chiefs, General VK Singh and Air Chief Marshal PV Nayak, stated that their forces too have the capability to do an Abbottabad — meaning their commandos too can take out foes on hostile territory. The only difference to be made is between Indian covert action against Pakistan during war or peace. Indian covert action against Pakistan during war is quite different from that during peace time.

The problem is that any Indian attempt to use force or covert action during peace time will certainly trigger a ‘hot’ or shooting war with Pakistan which is most undesirable. Considering even a major Indian military exercise like the high profile Brasstacks in 1987 or earlier violations of airspace by the Indian Air Force MiG-25 reconnaissance aircraft (now decommissioned) — were adequate to ring alarm bells in the Pakistan army’s general headquarters at Rawalpindi — a surgical strike is definitely ruled out. In a sense it is akin to the US military which would never undertake a commando raid on Russian territory in the absence of a hot war between them.

Moreover, the problem with covert commando actions is that when things go wrong like the US Green Beret Special Forces raid in 1980 — authorised by then president Jimmy Carter to rescue the Americans held hostage in Teheran — was aborted because of some technical problems and because it can prove to be an international embarrassment.

Otherwise the recent US military action against OBL in Abbottabad is reminiscent of Israeli covert action to capture the Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann in 1960 from Buenos Aires. The Israeli secret service Mossad after years of detective work tracked down Eichmann who was kidnapped and flown out in a drugged and disguised state on an El Al flight to Israel and tried there. After a judicial trial he was hanged to death in 1962. The international ramifications of the episode merit mention.

In June 1960, Argentina after unsuccessful secret negotiations with Israel requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to protest what Argentina regarded as the “violation of the sovereign rights of the Argentine Republic”. In the ensuing debate, Israeli representative Golda Meir claimed that the abductors were not Israeli agents but private individuals and so the incident was only an “isolated violation of Argentine law”. Eventually UNSC passed Resolution 138, which requested Israel “to make appropriate reparation”.

Importantly the Indian army is also reported to have conducted several trans-border commando raids during the 1990s across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistani territory from time to time in response to constant cross-border jihadi terrorist attacks. But all these were only shallow penetration raids on tactical targets of military value a few kilometres across the LoC that only technically violates another country’s sovereignty.

Though the Indian army formally designated their special forces as para-commandos between 1967-1969 at Gwalior, their first attempt at a major behind-the-lines operation was by the Meghdoot force in the 1965 India-Pakistan conflict. Thereafter, during the 1971 India-Pak conflict the newly raised 9 and 10 para-commando battalions were blooded in the Mandhol, Chachro and Virawal trans-border raids on Pakistani soil respectively. However, the Indian army undertook all these covert commando actions during an all out war with Pakistan in 1965 and 1971. Apart from this the Indian army and navy also supported the Mukti Bahini guerrilla forces in the eastern theatre during the 1971 war against Pakistan.

Clearly these commando actions prove that the Indian military has covert operations capabilities but only during war. But to do so during peace time requires political sanction and only a bold political leadership with strong national security orientation can drive the military’s special or unconventional warfare in terms of training, planning and execution. In a sense, the Indian political leadership needs to emulate their Israeli counterparts to pull off an Op Geronimo in peacetime. More importantly improved civil-military relations between the Indian military and the external intelligence service would be the first step to develop covert action capability during peace time.

For instance, the Indian military mobilisation in 2001 against Pakistan after the terrorist attack on Parliament in New Delhi suggests a lack of strategic coherence at the political level on how to deal with limited war under a nuclear overhang. In the Indian context the political and civilian leadership have over the years curbed and blunted this military spirit of seeking and taking risks in terms of launching trans-border commando operations. Instead they are overly cautious in ordering offensive actions across the LoC. Owing to such an Indian mindset the Pakistan Army and the ISI are emboldened to repeatedly launch terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir and our hinterland. Unless, India responds to use of force from across the border with similar force the message will not drive home and give the impression that India is a ‘soft’ state that can be attacked at a time and place of the enemy’s choice.

— The writer is a visiting fellow with the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi

troung
16 May 11,, 01:40
LOL - issue closed....

15 May, 2011, 07.28PM IST,PTI
Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief

Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/targets-inside-india-already-identified-if-any-abbottbad-like-attack-is-inflicted-isi-chief/articleshow/8345083.cms)

ISLAMABAD: ISI's powerful chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has warned India that any Abbottbad-like attack by it would invite a befitting response from Pakistan as targets inside the country "had already been identified" and "rehearsal" carried out.

Pasha's warning came as he addressed the in-camera joint session of the Senate and National Assembly held behind closed doors on Friday. Pasha is facing fire over the inability of the ISI to track down al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, where he was living, before he was annihilated by US special forces in a covert operation on May 2.

In an apparent response to statements from New Delhi that India too can carry out strikes inside Pakistan, Pasha said any attack from the east would invite a befitting response, the Dawn reported.

He said a contingency plan is in place and targets inside "India had already been identified".

Pasha told the lawmakers: "We have also carried out rehearsal for it."

Earlier on May 5, Pakistan army and the government had reacted sharply warning India against any Abbottabad-like "misadventure", saying it would be responded to "very strongly" that could lead to a "terrible catastrophe".

The warning had come after a meeting of the Corps Commanders chaired by Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani which decided to reduce the level of US military personnel in Pakistan and threatened to review intelligence cooperation with it, if a repeat of "violation of sovereignty" like on May 2 occurred.

Reacting to statements by Army Chief Gen V K Singh and Air Chief Air Marshal P V Naik that India has the capacity to carry out an operation similar to US forces eliminating Osama bin Laden, first Pakistan Foreign Secretary had told a press conference that any country that attempts to "mimic" the unilateral act of the US will find it has made a "basic miscalculation".

Officer of Engineers
16 May 11,, 03:57
I withdraw my comment. I do not doubt that Indians (and others) could reach the target ... but getting out is a whole different story.

kuku
16 May 11,, 04:23
LOL - issue closed....

15 May, 2011, 07.28PM IST,PTI
Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief

Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/targets-inside-india-already-identified-if-any-abbottbad-like-attack-is-inflicted-isi-chief/articleshow/8345083.cms)

ISLAMABAD: ISI's powerful chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has warned India that any Abbottbad-like attack by it would invite a befitting response from Pakistan as targets inside the country "had already been identified" and "rehearsal" carried out.

Pasha's warning came as he addressed the in-camera joint session of the Senate and National Assembly held behind closed doors on Friday. Pasha is facing fire over the inability of the ISI to track down al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, where he was living, before he was annihilated by US special forces in a covert operation on May 2.

In an apparent response to statements from New Delhi that India too can carry out strikes inside Pakistan, Pasha said any attack from the east would invite a befitting response, the Dawn reported.

He said a contingency plan is in place and targets inside "India had already been identified".

Pasha told the lawmakers: "We have also carried out rehearsal for it."

Earlier on May 5, Pakistan army and the government had reacted sharply warning India against any Abbottabad-like "misadventure", saying it would be responded to "very strongly" that could lead to a "terrible catastrophe".

The warning had come after a meeting of the Corps Commanders chaired by Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani which decided to reduce the level of US military personnel in Pakistan and threatened to review intelligence cooperation with it, if a repeat of "violation of sovereignty" like on May 2 occurred.

Reacting to statements by Army Chief Gen V K Singh and Air Chief Air Marshal P V Naik that India has the capacity to carry out an operation similar to US forces eliminating Osama bin Laden, first Pakistan Foreign Secretary had told a press conference that any country that attempts to "mimic" the unilateral act of the US will find it has made a "basic miscalculation".
Befitting response ='we will commit nuclear suicide'? Or more Suicide attacks?

kuku
16 May 11,, 04:24
LOL - issue closed....

15 May, 2011, 07.28PM IST,PTI
Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief

Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/targets-inside-india-already-identified-if-any-abbottbad-like-attack-is-inflicted-isi-chief/articleshow/8345083.cms)

ISLAMABAD: ISI's powerful chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has warned India that any Abbottbad-like attack by it would invite a befitting response from Pakistan as targets inside the country "had already been identified" and "rehearsal" carried out.

Pasha's warning came as he addressed the in-camera joint session of the Senate and National Assembly held behind closed doors on Friday. Pasha is facing fire over the inability of the ISI to track down al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, where he was living, before he was annihilated by US special forces in a covert operation on May 2.

In an apparent response to statements from New Delhi that India too can carry out strikes inside Pakistan, Pasha said any attack from the east would invite a befitting response, the Dawn reported.

He said a contingency plan is in place and targets inside "India had already been identified".

Pasha told the lawmakers: "We have also carried out rehearsal for it."

Earlier on May 5, Pakistan army and the government had reacted sharply warning India against any Abbottabad-like "misadventure", saying it would be responded to "very strongly" that could lead to a "terrible catastrophe".

The warning had come after a meeting of the Corps Commanders chaired by Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani which decided to reduce the level of US military personnel in Pakistan and threatened to review intelligence cooperation with it, if a repeat of "violation of sovereignty" like on May 2 occurred.

Reacting to statements by Army Chief Gen V K Singh and Air Chief Air Marshal P V Naik that India has the capacity to carry out an operation similar to US forces eliminating Osama bin Laden, first Pakistan Foreign Secretary had told a press conference that any country that attempts to "mimic" the unilateral act of the US will find it has made a "basic miscalculation".
Befitting response ='we will commit nuclear suicide'? Or more Suicide attacks?

hammer
16 May 11,, 09:52
ISI's powerful chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has warned India that any Abbottbad-like attack by it would invite a befitting response from Pakistan as targets inside the country "had already been identified" and "rehearsal" carried out.


*Yawn* .... another 26/11? LOL... He sounds more like a terrorist leader than the chief of an intelligence agency. Hmmm... that might as well be the truth.

Bhaarat
16 May 11,, 10:03
I don't think Dawood is terribly worried about an Indian raid.
Forget about Dawood. GOI is still grappling on punishing the 26/11 terrorist Kasab who was captured alive and is in Indian Jail.
There was a (tragic) joke doing rounds after OBL's death ..
"Nobody is safe in Pakistan, not even Osama,
Everybody is safe in India, including Kasab"

With this kind of governance at the helm, I wouldn't even dream of an Abt'bad like Indian op deep inside Pakistan. Unless of course Pakistan does something utterly suicidal.

Regards,
Bhaarat

Deltacamelately
16 May 11,, 10:53
It is non sensical to debate upon and draw conclusions about any country's Special Forces capabilities. I do not think any professionl force in the world is going to divulge much information about its equipment,
C4I and most importantly training exercises.

As far capabilities for conducting trans-border ops are concerned, I think latent capabilities exist with most SFs of both India and Pakistan. The InA has considerable past experience of conducting such exercises, it is also worth noting that para units of the Indian Army are among the oldest airborne units in the world, with the first unit being authorized on 15th May 1941.

As much as can divulged in an open forum, the Indian SF's are actually well versed in both HALO (High Altitude Low Opening) and HAHO (High Altitude High Opening) techniques. They infact train to use the HAHO method with specially designed maneuverable parachutes called HAPPS (High Altitude Parachute Penetration System) to conduct stealth insertions over distances up to, but not restricted to 50 km.

And to spice it up, all Indian SF personnel are capable of not only English, but some personnel are specially trained in Chinese and certain Tibetan and Pakistani dialects.;)

Therefore Troung, no LOL.:biggrin:

Deltacamelately
16 May 11,, 11:10
I withdraw my comment. I do not doubt that Indians (and others) could reach the target ... but getting out is a whole different story.
Sir,

I wouldn't think that there can be SFs which train for ingress but not for engress.:eek:

Deltacamelately
16 May 11,, 11:17
Steve and Bigfella, thanks for the insight. However, it is still interesting that the strike package did expect PA/Police interfarence during the operation and subsequent engress, but did not think of interdiction by the PAF, as I didn't find any mention of such.

Officer of Engineers
16 May 11,, 11:59
Sir,

I wouldn't think that there can be SFs which train for ingress but not for engress.:eek:Hold until relieved. MARKET GARDEN, Crete, and Mussolini's rescue comes to mind.

Soviet air assault brigades were expected to die before being relieved by the ground echelon.

Doktor
16 May 11,, 13:31
I withdraw my comment. I do not doubt that Indians (and others) could reach the target ... but getting out is a whole different story.

The talk in the Indian HQ could go like this:


- I have a question, say we get into the cage, and through the security doors there and down the elevator we can't move, and past the guards with the guns, and into the vault we can't open...
- Without being seen by the cameras.
- Oh yeah, sorry, I forgot to mention that.
- Yeah well, say we do all that... uh... we're just supposed to walk out of there with $150,000,000 in cash on us, without getting stopped?
[pause]
- Yeah.
- Oh. Okay.

© Ocean's 11, The movie


From the Pasha interview, I can see he believes India can go in and get out. Why else plan retaliation?

vsdoc
16 May 11,, 13:39
From the Pasha interview, I can see he believes India can go in and get out. Why else plan retaliation?

A convenient bogey for future attacks by sympathetic aggrieved "non-state actors" so as to keep ISI's nose clean and prevent escalation perhaps. Or choose to take "official" credit depending on which way the wind is blowing at the time.

S2
16 May 11,, 13:48
"...it is still interesting that the strike package did expect PA/Police interfarence during the operation and subsequent engress, but did not think of interdiction by the PAF, as I didn't find any mention of such."

Major,

I believe Bigfella's comments specifically allude to a CAP package that may have been aloft and loitering on the Afghan-Pakistani border. I'm almost certain we'd have planned top-cover for all three phases of the operation if required.

Deltacamelately
16 May 11,, 13:48
Hold until relieved. MARKET GARDEN, Crete, and Mussolini's rescue comes to mind.

Soviet air assault brigades were expected to die before being relieved by the ground echelon.
Sir,

Were those deliberate expectations? Our's quite different. The Para's have operated outside our international boudaries, sometimes as far out as Maldives, with explicit mandates to clear, hold and engress with as little casuality as possible. In recent years, during Operation Khukri, in Sierra Leone, 120 operators commanded by Major, currently Lt.Col Harinder Sood, were airlifted from New Delhi with the mission to rescue 223 men of the 5/8 Gorkha Rifles, held captive by the Revolutionary United Front rebels for more than 75 days. The mandate even there was equally candid, clear and get out fast. They planned their engress well ahead.

Deltacamelately
16 May 11,, 15:08
"...it is still interesting that the strike package did expect PA/Police interfarence during the operation and subsequent engress, but did not think of interdiction by the PAF, as I didn't find any mention of such."

Major,

I believe Bigfella's comments specifically allude to a CAP package that may have been aloft and loitering on the Afghan-Pakistani border. I'm almost certain we'd have planned top-cover for all three phases of the operation if required.
Steve,

How much loitre time did those aircrafts doing CAP enjoy. I am confused. Those Black Hawks's must have travelled some 60 minutes before reaching the theatre, that means the US fighters would require to achieve SEAD from that distance had the PAK's activated their air defences to bring down the choppers, or F-16s shooting them down. The important thing here is, who gets there first. Now what kind preparation would that warrant?

troung
16 May 11,, 17:37
As much as can divulged in an open forum, the Indian SF's are actually well versed in both HALO (High Altitude Low Opening) and HAHO (High Altitude High Opening) techniques. They infact train to use the HAHO method with specially designed maneuverable parachutes called HAPPS (High Altitude Parachute Penetration System) to conduct stealth insertions over distances up to, but not restricted to 50 km.

HALO/HAHOing into a safe house and then waiting for helicopters probably isn't the best plan. Don't doubt if India found one of these terrorists and decided to take a massive gamble and go for it that in theory they couldn't put a bullet in someone, depending on where they were. I really can't see that risk adverse government signing off on to a plan which might end up with dozens of dead commandos, a few downed helicopters and a few prisoners in a Pakistani city. Can't see the IA pushing for it to hard either.


Therefore Troung, no LOL.

The LOL was drying up any political will by the PA saying they would lob nukes or send more terrorists.


The talk in the Indian HQ could go like this:

You failed to ad in the step of bragging to the media about the ability to do it in depth.

IND76
16 May 11,, 17:38
LOL - issue closed....

15 May, 2011, 07.28PM IST,PTI
Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief

Targets inside India already 'identified' if any Abbottbad-like attack is inflicted: ISI chief - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/targets-inside-india-already-identified-if-any-abbottbad-like-attack-is-inflicted-isi-chief/articleshow/8345083.cms)

ISLAMABAD: ISI's powerful chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has warned India that any Abbottbad-like attack by it would invite a befitting response from Pakistan as targets inside the country "had already been identified" and "rehearsal" carried out.

Pasha's warning came as he addressed the in-camera joint session of the Senate and National Assembly held behind closed doors on Friday. Pasha is facing fire over the inability of the ISI to track down al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, where he was living, before he was annihilated by US special forces in a covert operation on May 2.

In an apparent response to statements from New Delhi that India too can carry out strikes inside Pakistan, Pasha said any attack from the east would invite a befitting response, the Dawn reported.

He said a contingency plan is in place and targets inside "India had already been identified".

Pasha told the lawmakers: "We have also carried out rehearsal for it."

Earlier on May 5, Pakistan army and the government had reacted sharply warning India against any Abbottabad-like "misadventure", saying it would be responded to "very strongly" that could lead to a "terrible catastrophe".

The warning had come after a meeting of the Corps Commanders chaired by Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani which decided to reduce the level of US military personnel in Pakistan and threatened to review intelligence cooperation with it, if a repeat of "violation of sovereignty" like on May 2 occurred.

Reacting to statements by Army Chief Gen V K Singh and Air Chief Air Marshal P V Naik that India has the capacity to carry out an operation similar to US forces eliminating Osama bin Laden, first Pakistan Foreign Secretary had told a press conference that any country that attempts to "mimic" the unilateral act of the US will find it has made a "basic miscalculation".

Target inside india identified, by this terrorist in chief to send idiots ,to do mumbai like killing of un armed civilians. Thats what he meant.

xinhui
16 May 11,, 18:19
And to spice it up, all Indian SF personnel are capable of not only English, but some personnel are specially trained in Chinese and certain Tibetan and Pakistani dialects.


might be the case. That said, during last 20 years the so-call military analyses from India regarding the PLA or China in general, were not impressive. They are still confused the difference between regt vs bgd, or broader guide vs PAP vs PLA regforce. Anyone with access to Buidu can sort them out.

Vinod2070
16 May 11,, 19:14
Always interesting to see the Paks threatening India everytime their arse is kicked by anyone. ;)

Works well with the target audience, they mind getting beaten by only the Indians.

xinhui
16 May 11,, 19:48
Easy with the flamebait there.

notorious_eagle
17 May 11,, 00:17
I withdraw my comment. I do not doubt that Indians (and others) could reach the target ... but getting out is a whole different story.

Sir i have a question for you? How do you think the Indians would drop their SF inside Pakistan to carry out their operation. Is it going to be an air drop, helo op or sneak in from the land. A helo op or an air drop sounds difficult considering how extensive Pakistan's radar coverage is.

notorious_eagle
17 May 11,, 00:24
*Yawn* .... another 26/11? LOL... He sounds more like a terrorist leader than the chief of an intelligence agency. Hmmm... that might as well be the truth.

Terrorist? He was responding to a question asked by an MP, but you are right. How dare Pakistan hit India back in self defence if its land is attacked by India.

Tronic
17 May 11,, 01:49
Terrorist? He was responding to a question asked by an MP, but you are right. How dare Pakistan hit India back in self defence if its land is attacked by India.

India regularly faces attacks launched from Pakistani territory, so technically, India attacking those terrorist chaps across the border does not make India the aggressor here. ;)

Blademaster
17 May 11,, 01:50
Terrorist? He was responding to a question asked by an MP, but you are right. How dare Pakistan hit India back in self defence if its land is attacked by India.

If your brethren attack any of india's citizens or use your land to launch attacks against India, your country deserved to get its ass whooped.

troung
17 May 11,, 02:19
India regularly faces attacks launched from Pakistani territory, so technically, India attacking those terrorist chaps across the border does not make India the aggressor here.

Doesn't mean they will just sit there either, ergo there wouldn't be a strike. Though shelling and probably launching another major terrorist attack is more likely than a nuclear strike or full scale war.

Doktor
17 May 11,, 02:28
Getting into who started first into 50+ y/o dispute wont solve anything for anyone.

BM by that logic there will be a long list of countries willing to whoop USA ass. Not that there isn't but just saying.

notorious_eagle
17 May 11,, 04:04
If your brethren attack any of india's citizens or use your land to launch attacks against India, your country deserved to get its ass whooped.

First of all, they are not our brothers. They are stateless actors whom deserve to be brought to justice, no proof that they have the support of the State of Pakistan. As far as attacking Pakistan is concerned, the Indian Army is more than welcome to try. But dont expect Pakistan Army to just sit there, Pakistan Army's reaction post Mumbai Attacks should be clear that they will not just sit idle if the Indians launch an attack inside Pakistan.

S2
17 May 11,, 04:14
"How much loitre time did those aircrafts doing CAP enjoy. I am confused. Those Black Hawks's must have travelled some 60 minutes before reaching the theatre, that means the US fighters would require to achieve SEAD from that distance had the PAK's activated their air defences to bring down the choppers, or F-16s shooting them down. The important thing here is, who gets there first. Now what kind preparation would that warrant?"

Agree that if things go south there's a race to mass critical combat power. I'm assuming we had a detailed order of battle highlighting, among other things, the P.A.'s western air defense network. Bigfella's article suggests five F/A-18s were up along with AWACS.

I'm guessing, if the article is correct, AWACS would be painting the most likely threat AFB for possible sorties. I'm also presuming our SIGINT/ELINT boys were working overtime that evening.

Finally, we know what was reported to have been seen by PAF radar. What DIDN'T they see. There was a fancy blackhawk flying that evening. Was there anything else up there that was unusual?

Chogy likes the F-22's dash capabilities. I like that it's hard to I.D.

Your guess would be as good as mine though.

Officer of Engineers
17 May 11,, 04:49
Sir,

Were those deliberate expectations? Our's quite different. The Para's have operated outside our international boudaries, sometimes as far out as Maldives, with explicit mandates to clear, hold and engress with as little casuality as possible. In recent years, during Operation Khukri, in Sierra Leone, 120 operators commanded by Major, currently Lt.Col Harinder Sood, were airlifted from New Delhi with the mission to rescue 223 men of the 5/8 Gorkha Rifles, held captive by the Revolutionary United Front rebels for more than 75 days. The mandate even there was equally candid, clear and get out fast. They planned their engress well ahead.Major,

I was not trying to lecture nor to teach, but merely stating that engress may not be part of the mission objectives. I was pointing out examples where engress was not expected.


Sir i have a question for you? How do you think the Indians would drop their SF inside Pakistan to carry out their operation. Is it going to be an air drop, helo op or sneak in from the land. A helo op or an air drop sounds difficult considering how extensive Pakistan's radar coverage is.You will have to ask the Indian Army about that but in theory, distractions might work.

Tronic
17 May 11,, 06:11
You failed to ad in the step of bragging to the media about the ability to do it in depth.

It is the media which is picking up a few lines of the general and running with it. To be fair to the man, in the same interview he also said that had a similar Abottabad like raid been pulled against India; Indian forces probably would have been left just as dumbstruck, and the response would be just as confused and slow. But that stuff is not as juicy as when he answered in the confirmative when asked if capability exists with the Indian armed forces to pull off similar raids.

Vinod2070
17 May 11,, 06:14
First of all, they are not our brothers. They are stateless actors whom deserve to be brought to justice, no proof that they have the support of the State of Pakistan. As far as attacking Pakistan is concerned, the Indian Army is more than welcome to try. But dont expect Pakistan Army to just sit there, Pakistan Army's reaction post Mumbai Attacks should be clear that they will not just sit idle if the Indians launch an attack inside Pakistan.

This bogey of stateless actors and no proof that they have the support of the State of Pakistan doesn't cut anywhere, least of all with India. It is well known that the Pakistani state has used them as strategic assets against India and Afghanistan and continues to do so.

Hope PA could show a fraction of the reaction in battling these non state actors as it does against the supposed India threat that arises from the actions of those scum. You could have been spared many of the 35000 dead and won't have a country perpetually on the brink and topping all failed state charts.

Compare the alacrity with making nuclear threats on India and the sloppy manner and clear unwillingness in bringing that Jihadi scum responsible for Mumbai massacre to justice. The still free hand given to terrorists like Hafiz to continue doing what they do best. And you want to fool the world that they are non state actors.

troung
17 May 11,, 06:19
But that stuff is not as juicy as when he answered in the confirmative when asked if capability exists with the Indian armed forces to pull off similar raids.

"No comment" works.

Tronic
17 May 11,, 06:25
Doesn't mean they will just sit there either, ergo there wouldn't be a strike. Though shelling and probably launching another major terrorist attack is more likely than a nuclear strike or full scale war.

I agree, I wouldn't expect the Pakistanis to sit there; was just pulling notorious eagle up for having his country act in 'self defence' against Indian "aggression". Pakistan's willingness to allow their territory to be used against its neighbours makes them the aggressors.

Anyhow, India doesnt really have much reason at the moment to launch attacks into Pakistan, as that country is doing an excellent job attacking itself. Why attack a country and help unite it by giving them an enemy when it is getting a taste of its own medicine? The killing of Colonel Imam by the TTP was brilliant, as much as I dislike the Talibunnies, I also don't have any love lost for the ISI! It was a bit amusing seeing them kill their own father in cold blood. I don't think attacking that country helps them in anyway. They need more of these groups to go out of control and attack them, they will only learn the hard way that breeding snakes for proxy war is not a good strategy!

Tronic
17 May 11,, 06:26
"No comment" works.

Yeh, or that. :redface:

Blademaster
17 May 11,, 06:38
Getting into who started first into 50+ y/o dispute wont solve anything for anyone.

BM by that logic there will be a long list of countries willing to whoop USA ass. Not that there isn't but just saying.

If you have the means to give an ass whooping, then by all means do so otherwise shaddup and quit crying.

ambidex
17 May 11,, 10:34
The thread refuse to close;).

Manmohan Singh takes stock of country's nuclear arsenal
(http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-takes-stock-of-arsenal-in-Nuclear-Command-Authority-meet/articleshow/8380273.cms)

NEW DELHI: India on Monday took stock of its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems like long-range ballistic missiles, fighter-bombers and warships towards its quest to have an operational nuclear triad -- the capability to fire nukes from land, sea and air -- in the near future.

Sources said the top-level meet held by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was "not just a general security review'' but in fact a full-fledged Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) conference to assess the steps being taken to consolidate and strengthen India's "minimum but credible nuclear deterrence".

The status of two crucial but delayed "strategic programmes", the 5,000-km-range Agni-V missile and indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant, is said to have figured in the discussion apart from "overarching strategic issues".

While the three-stage Agni-V is to be tested later this year, INS Arihant is also slated to go for "harbour and sea trials" once its miniature 83 MW pressurized light-water reactor gains "full criticality". The defence establishment is eager to induct INS Arihant, armed with 12 nuclear-tipped missiles, by next year because it will constitute the most effective and difficult-to-detect leg of the nuclear triad.

The NCA meeting was attended by defence minister A K Antony, national security advisor Shiv Shankar Menon , DRDO chief V K Saraswat and the three Service chiefs, Air Chief Marshal P V Naik, Admiral Nirmal Verma and General V K Singh, among others.

It comes close after ISI chief Lt-General Shuja Pasha's threat that Pakistan would give a befitting response to any Indian attempt to launch any Abbottabad-like operation since targets inside India "had already been identified'' and "rehearsals'' carried out.

This sabre-rattling comes in the backdrop of Pakistan furiously building up its nuclear arsenal, which already stands at an estimated 70 to 90 warheads compared to India's 60 to 80.

Pakistan's two new heavy-water reactors coming up at its Khushab nuclear facility are clearly geared towards producing weapons-grade plutonium to supplement its ongoing enriched uranium-based nuke programme, as reported by TOI earlier.

What has added to global concerns is the fear that jihadis may gain access to "loose nukes", enriched uranium or nuclear technology to make "dirty bombs" in the ever-deepening mess Pakistan finds itself in.

India, however, does not want to engage in a verbal spat with Pakistan. This much was evident with sources emphasizing the NCA meeting on Monday was "a routine pre-scheduled exercise" held once every three-to-six months to review the management of India's nuclear arsenal.

Pakistan does not have a clear-cut "no first-use" nuclear doctrine like India, having left it deliberately vague to unsettle India's conventional military superiority. Moreover, it's Army chief General Pervez Kayani who has his finger on the nuclear button in Pakistan.

In India, the NCA is controlled by the civilian leadership, with the "political council" led by the PM being the "sole body which can authorize the use of nuclear weapons''. The NCA's executive council, headed by the NSA, only provides inputs and "execute the directives'' given to it by the political council. There are, of course, "alternate chains of command'' for retaliatory nuclear strikes if the political leadership is "decapitated'' in a pre-emptive first strike by an adversary.

Both the NCA and the tri-Service Strategic Forces Command (SFC), which manages the nuclear arsenal, were created in January 2003 after the 10-month troop mobilization along the Indo-Pak border under Operation Parakram in the wake of the December 2001 terror strike on Parliament.

vsdoc
17 May 11,, 10:41
The thread refuse to close;).

Manmohan Singh takes stock of country's nuclear arsenal
(http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-takes-stock-of-arsenal-in-Nuclear-Command-Authority-meet/articleshow/8380273.cms)

I'm not an expert on this, but would like to know. Speaking hypothetically, how many / which cities of ours could they get first before we wipe them out? And what would the prevailing wind / delayed radiation casualties be like on our side once the dust settles? Any specific season / time of the year best for such?

P.S. If these nuclear war game scenarios have been played out elsewhere on this board, would really appreciate a link, cause I am really interested in reading about this. And not derailing this thread while I am at it.

ambidex
17 May 11,, 11:44
I'm not an expert on this, but would like to know. Speaking hypothetically, how many / which cities of ours could they get first before we wipe them out? And what would the prevailing wind / delayed radiation casualties be like on our side once the dust settles? Any specific season / time of the year best for such?

P.S. If these nuclear war game scenarios have been played out elsewhere on this board, would really appreciate a link, cause I am really interested in reading about this. And not derailing this thread while I am at it.


Sorry doc, me not an expert too, I can tell you whats happening new in head injury intensive care, not this one :).

What i have collected last time here on WAB, i would call escalation to full blown nuclear war a bluff. I don't know if good posters still have the same thoughts today.

Cheers

Officer of Engineers
17 May 11,, 12:53
I'm not an expert on this, but would like to know. Speaking hypothetically, how many / which cities of ours could they get first before we wipe them out? And what would the prevailing wind / delayed radiation casualties be like on our side once the dust settles? Any specific season / time of the year best for such?

P.S. If these nuclear war game scenarios have been played out elsewhere on this board, would really appreciate a link, cause I am really interested in reading about this. And not derailing this thread while I am at it.

Suggest you read the entire thread. There is an evolution of thought through it.

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/central-south-asia/52422-indian-nuclear-testing.html

Parihaka
17 May 11,, 13:13
Suggest you read the entire thread. There is an evolution of thought through it.

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/central-south-asia/52422-indian-nuclear-testing.html

Gordon Bennett. Eighteen pages?!??!!!
I turn my back for five minutes and you turn out eighteen pages?

Officer of Engineers
17 May 11,, 15:30
I didn't have a daughter's ballet recital to goto.

malik
21 May 11,, 10:49
70% of Indian population is living lives below the line of poverty. According to recent survey poverty in India is more than African countries .
Million of people are dying every year in India............but India is spending billions of Dollers on armaments .

80% Indian Army is on Pakistan border "Approximately one Million troops " India has total 3 Armer division , All 3 at Pakistan,s border .........India has total 3 Mechanised Division All 3 at Pakistan,s border . This is the ground realty .

India is building 75 dams on the Pakistani rivers to make Pakistan like Somalia Ethopia by controlling the water...... India can also use this water as weapon , 70% of Pakistani economy based on agriculture

India is a vulgar state. Indian 700,000 troops are killing innocent Kashmiri people.
Pakistan has very good relations with its neighbor countries except India. On the other hand we can see the relationship of India with its neighbor countries .

US & Nato forces had already killed millions of innocent people on the name of Terrorism in Iraq , Afghanistan, and Libya .
Now they are destabilizing whole Middle East and Pakistan. Who is supporting Al-Qaida against Libya ?
The Name of game is terrorism to implement new world order.

There are hundreds of us spy agent like Rymond Davis (The US Spy agent who caught red handed in Pakistan,IN INVESTIGATION POLICE PROVE THAT HE CANTACT WITH THE LEADER OF TEHREEK-ETALIBAN PAKISTAN IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN "this terrorist organisation is involve in 90% terrorist activities in Pakistan " )
Connection of a US ambassador with the leader of terheek-etaliban "HAKEEM-ULLAH-MEHSOOD" is a valid proof that CIA is operating terrorism in Pakistan.

embasador - Google Search (http://www.google.com.pk/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=embasador#q=infowars+CIA+is+doing+terrorism+in+p akistan&hl=en&prmd=ivns&source=univ&tbm=vid&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=s3nXTYfEC4KEhQffnqDDBg&ved=0CEQQqwQ&fp=424376c4c94629a0)

People of South Asia are going towards WW3 "nuclear war"

malik
21 May 11,, 10:57
If india will impose small war on pakistan on the name of terrorism then pakistan will reply with full force .
There are 135 terrorist organisations inside india , they should deal with them . Hindu terrorist organisations are more dangerous for india & pakistan who was involved in 26/11 mumbai attack & bobm blast on pak-india train service....

1979
21 May 11,, 11:08
Have the courtesy to introduce yourself in the proper section of the forum before starting a pissing contest.

S2
21 May 11,, 15:35
"India is a vulgar state. Indian 700,000 troops are killing innocent Kashmiri people.
Pakistan has very good relations with its neighbor countries except India. On the other hand we can see the relationship of India with its neighbor countries .

US & Nato forces had already killed millions of innocent people on the name of Terrorism in Iraq , Afghanistan, and Libya .
Now they are destabilizing whole Middle East and Pakistan. Who is supporting Al-Qaida against Libya ?"

You appear to be trolling. These claims are baseless and/or inaccurate. May you live in interesting times.

Tronic
21 May 11,, 22:12
80% Indian Army is on Pakistan border "Approximately one Million troops " India has total 3 Armer division , All 3 at Pakistan,s border .........India has total 3 Mechanised Division All 3 at Pakistan,s border . This is the ground realty .

Armoured Troops and Mechanized divisions don't do too well in the mountains against China. ;) Though, am sure you missed the pattern of how the Indian air force deploys its assets. Su-30MKIs had been almost all deployed on FOBs facing China; only now, when we have enough to spare, a squadron has made it to the Pakistani border. Its logistics and needs which warrant the army deployments. Tanks simply aren't needed high up in the mountains.


India is building 75 dams on the Pakistani rivers to make Pakistan like Somalia Ethopia by controlling the water...... India can also use this water as weapon , 70% of Pakistani economy based on agriculture

We would have long done so, had that been our intention. India sat down in 1960 to sign the Indus Water treaty to give her word never to stop the flow of water, otherwise, there was ample opportunity for more than a decade before to stop the flow, aswell as 1965 and 1971, when the water taps could have been shut off. But they weren't.


Pakistan has very good relations with its neighbor countries except India. On the other hand we can see the relationship of India with its neighbor countries .

You are comparing a state which has protectorate states under it aswell as countries who are under an Indian military umbrella, to a country openly resented by all its neighbours (with the Chinese exception ofcourse) due to cross-border export of militants. The day Pakistan shuns proxies will it start to have better relations with its neighbours. Central Asia is a stone's throw away from Pakistan, yet, India and Uzbekistan just signed off on a strategic partnership. Tajikistan invited India to set up an airbase not far from the Pakistani border. All of Pakistan's neighbours, excepting China ofcourse, are working towards bypassing Pakistan completely and building an Iran-Afghanistan-CARs corridor. Smells of failed diplomacy, not cordial relations, on Pakistan's part to me.


US & Nato forces had already killed millions of innocent people on the name of Terrorism in Iraq , Afghanistan, and Libya .

Pakistani sponsored proxies have killed far more people than anyone else in the region.


There are hundreds of us spy agent like Rymond Davis (The US Spy agent who caught red handed in Pakistan,IN INVESTIGATION POLICE PROVE THAT HE CANTACT WITH THE LEADER OF TEHREEK-ETALIBAN PAKISTAN IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN "this terrorist organisation is involve in 90% terrorist activities in Pakistan " )
Connection of a US ambassador with the leader of terheek-etaliban "HAKEEM-ULLAH-MEHSOOD" is a valid proof that CIA is operating terrorism in Pakistan

Not hundreds. ~3000 is the number I heard.

Must have heard the saying, 'Keep your friends close, but your enemies even closer.'


People of South Asia are going towards WW3 "nuclear war"

Unless Pakistan decides to commit suicide, not going to happen.

Doktor
22 May 11,, 03:20
Suggest you read the entire thread. There is an evolution of thought through it.

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/central-south-asia/52422-indian-nuclear-testing.html

I must admit I went trough all 18 pages and didn't find the answer on vsdoc question. Could be my tired eyes and the son bothering me with unessential questions.

Sumku
25 May 11,, 20:30
India is building 75 dams on the Pakistani rivers
Lol.....I never knew that Indian companies are operating that deep inside Pakistan.

If you meant the other way around and if you are referring to the Rivers governed by Indus Water treaty, then please link independent verifiable source to substantiate your claims.No Madarssa links please