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View Full Version : Geopolitical shift in South Asia - Fallout from Bin Ladens death.



Wayfarer
04 May 11,, 14:26
This is the biggest thing to international relations in a while. Mostly concerning American-Pakistan relations. Now lets see a few things. Why will the American-Pakistan relationship collapse first?

-Pakistani complicity regarding Osama Bin Laden.

The Mansion

Lets review the facts before we speculate. Osamas mansion was 700 metres away from a Pakistani military academy akin to West Point, AND was located in a cantonment residential zone reserved for ex-Army officers and ex-intelligence officers. I'll provide sources very soon, but bear with me. Now, of all people, I'd expect army officers and intelligence officials to be curious of the purpose of a mansion amidst an upper-class district. Particularly one with fenced walls and one that burnt trash regularly. The mansion itself was constructed by the ISI in 2005. The property was checked ONCE by the Pakistanis, and apparently no red flags were raised because they didn't return.

From the neighbours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... bours.html

Note Pakistani opinion on Bin Laden.

The operation

4 M-64 Pavehawks (modified versions) loaded with Delta-6 Navy Seals headed off to the compound. It is
1) technologically feasible, Pavehawks have an operational range of 445 kilometres, added to this is the in-flight refueling capability and ability to mount external fuel tanks. American air bases in eastern Afghanistan, the closest is around 300 kilometres away
2) Pakistani radar and detection CANNOT detect helicopters flying 20 metres above the ground - see physics, the doppler effect and the ability of radar to detect it. It would have the same signature as a parked car.
3) The majority of Pakistani air-defense and EWS (Early Warning systems) are aimed at India, a major strategic concern for Pakistan.
4) Pakistani SAM batteries and missile defense would be hard pressed first, to identify and distinguish between a PAF Chinook and a U.S Pavehawk in the middle of the night. Radar signatures identical, assuming they even manage to get a signal. Relying the okay for a strike would require approval from the Chain of Command - a long process.
5)Repeated incursions of Pakistani airspace have been reported, an Indian UAV managed to stay aloft around 2 hours before notice. In addition, PAF scrambled jets only 30 MINS AFTER THE US forces had left the compound.

The Reaction
1) Obama denied Pakistani involvement
2) Al-Zardari denied Pakistani co-operation.


Which would lead us to believe

1) The U.S doesn't trust Pakistan.
2) Pakistan had no hand in providing information to the U.S on Obamas whereabouts, and given the picture I painted earlier about his location... well do I have to spell it out? I'll do so.

Either Pakistani intelligence is so inept that they couldn't locate Osama right under their noses, given the nature of the ISI I highly, highly doubt that.
Or Pakistani intelligence aided and abetted Osama and either turned a blind eye to his existence, or actively aided his position.

Lets go back to the original point. The impact of this on relations with Pakistan. Congress is fuming. Fuming. Now, at current, aid will not be withdrawn. Lets look on a larger timescale and frame. Post-Afghan withdrawal. We can assume safely that all aid will stop and be cut off. In light of this event anyway. The U.S has been hard-pressed to justify its aid to Pakistan, but given this, they will have to seriously reconsider this position. There are calls for slashing aid. After the Afghan withdrawal we are looking at an end to the U.S-Pakistan relationship and can and will see a resumption in Indo-US relationship, albeit more vigorously. In addition to shifting the game in South Asia, we have to consider a few possibilities

1) Will the U.S / Pakistan relationship collapse after the Afghani withdrawal (i.e will the U.S cut aid) ? If so, how does Pakistan a) contain the growing insurgency and prevent themselves from becoming a failed state. Assuming a successful Afghanistan operation, the Taliban are driven into Pakistan. Assuming a failed one, Pakistan represents an easier target than the U.S armed and funded Afghani army.

2) If it does collapse(US-Pakistan relationship), does Pakistan turn to China for aid, and like comments released by Gilani (Pakistani PM)point to this, when he mentioned that China would be welcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and derided constant American inteference. Will China respond adversely to this? Recent contracts acquired for lithium and other ores in Afghanistan suggest otherwise. They can hope for strategic encirclement of India, and traditionally China has vyed with the U.S for Pakistan

3) The potential for Pakistan to become a failed state exists. Thus, I'd say reversion to military command and a takeover by the army of Al-Zardaris government may be in order, particularly if a "march on Islamabad" occurs like last year.

After Osama bin Laden's death, Congress rethinks aid to Pakistan - CSMonitor.com (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0503/After-Osama-bin-Laden-s-death-Congress-rethinks-aid-to-Pakistan/%28page%29/2)

(Gilani speaks about Chinese vs America)

Sources for previous statements.

(Pakistan ruling out Pakistan)http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/03/pakistan-says-had-no-knowledge-of-us-bin-laden-raid.html
(bullshit magnet piece here)Pakistan intelligence official admits failure in Osama saga as suspicions deepen - International Business Times (http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/140763/20110503/pakistan-isi-qaeda-osama-us.htm#ixzz1LJ7bSnjC)
(Jets scrambled) Some White Knuckle Moments for Elite Navy SEALs Team - Political Punch (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/05/some-white-knuckle-moments-for-elite-navy-seals-team.html)
(US ruling out Pakistan)CIA Chief on Osama Raid: U.S. Ruled Out Involving Pakistan | Swampland (http://swampland.time.com/2011/05/03/cia-chief-breaks-silence-u-s-ruled-out-involving-pakistan-in-bin-laden-raid-early-on/?hpt=T2)