This is the biggest thing to international relations in a while. Mostly concerning American-Pakistan relations. Now lets see a few things. Why will the American-Pakistan relationship collapse first?
- Pakistani complicity regarding Osama Bin Laden.
The Mansion
Lets review the facts before we speculate. Osamas mansion was 700 metres away from a Pakistani military academy akin to West Point, AND was located in a cantonment residential zone reserved for ex-Army officers and ex-intelligence officers. I'll provide sources very soon, but bear with me. Now, of all people, I'd expect army officers and intelligence officials to be curious of the purpose of a mansion amidst an upper-class district. Particularly one with fenced walls and one that burnt trash regularly. The mansion itself was constructed by the ISI in 2005. The property was checked ONCE by the Pakistanis, and apparently no red flags were raised because they didn't return.
From the neighbours.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... bours.html
Note Pakistani opinion on Bin Laden.
The operation
4 M-64 Pavehawks (modified versions) loaded with Delta-6 Navy Seals headed off to the compound. It is
1) technologically feasible, Pavehawks have an operational range of 445 kilometres, added to this is the in-flight refueling capability and ability to mount external fuel tanks. American air bases in eastern Afghanistan, the closest is around 300 kilometres away
2) Pakistani radar and detection CANNOT detect helicopters flying 20 metres above the ground - see physics, the doppler effect and the ability of radar to detect it. It would have the same signature as a parked car.
3) The majority of Pakistani air-defense and EWS (Early Warning systems) are aimed at India, a major strategic concern for Pakistan.
4) Pakistani SAM batteries and missile defense would be hard pressed first, to identify and distinguish between a PAF Chinook and a U.S Pavehawk in the middle of the night. Radar signatures identical, assuming they even manage to get a signal. Relying the okay for a strike would require approval from the Chain of Command - a long process.
5)Repeated incursions of Pakistani airspace have been reported, an Indian UAV managed to stay aloft around 2 hours before notice. In addition, PAF scrambled jets only 30 MINS AFTER THE US forces had left the compound.
The Reaction
1) Obama denied Pakistani involvement
2) Al-Zardari denied Pakistani co-operation.
Which would lead us to believe
1) The U.S doesn't trust Pakistan.
2) Pakistan had no hand in providing information to the U.S on Obamas whereabouts, and given the picture I painted earlier about his location... well do I have to spell it out? I'll do so.
Either Pakistani intelligence is so inept that they couldn't locate Osama right under their noses, given the nature of the ISI I highly, highly doubt that.
Or Pakistani intelligence aided and abetted Osama and either turned a blind eye to his existence, or actively aided his position.
Lets go back to the original point. The impact of this on relations with Pakistan. Congress is fuming. Fuming. Now, at current, aid will not be withdrawn. Lets look on a larger timescale and frame. Post-Afghan withdrawal. We can assume safely that all aid will stop and be cut off. In light of this event anyway. The U.S has been hard-pressed to justify its aid to Pakistan, but given this, they will have to seriously reconsider this position. There are calls for slashing aid. After the Afghan withdrawal we are looking at an end to the U.S-Pakistan relationship and can and will see a resumption in Indo-US relationship, albeit more vigorously. In addition to shifting the game in South Asia, the potential for Pakistan to become a failed state is present.
A) Will the U.S allow Pakistan to become a failed state, and threaten Afghani stability bought at a very high price (and still not certain)?
B) Will Pakistan forsake the U.S as an ally (or vice-versa) and seek aid from China, and will China consent or profit from such an arrangement (Note chinese acquisition of resources, particularly lithium, in Afghanistan, and Pakistani PM Gilanis claim that South Asia should be Sino-centric and abandon American support.
C) If B) happens, the U.S and India will be forced together, and a convergence of interests (Chinese encirclement of India and the U.S inclinement to see China strategically penned in)
D) Are we looking at South Asia being the proxy strategic battleground between U.S and America, as opposed to the Taiwanese straits that everyone is keen to raise?
South Asia may well become the hotbed for the proxy strategic jousting between China and the U.S. Camps being India and the U.S, China and Pakistan.
Comments released by Gilani (Pakistani PM)point to this, when he mentioned that China would be welcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and derided constant American inteference.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0503/ ... 8page%29/2
Yousuf Gilani might accept Manmohan Singh?s invite for India-Pak semifinal #wc11 ... 03982.html
Sources for previous statements.
(Pakistan ruling out Pakistan)http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/03/pakis...aden-raid.html
(bullshit magnet piece here)Pakistan intelligence official admits failure in Osama saga as suspicions deepen - International Business Times
(Jets scrambled) Political Punch ... -team.html
(US ruling out Pakistan)CIA Chief on Osama Raid: U.S. Ruled Out Involving Pakistan | Swampland
Most recently, from Tajikistan :
Wikileaks doc: Tajikistan warned U.S. that Pakistan was protecting Bin Laden « Hot Air
- Pakistani complicity regarding Osama Bin Laden.
The Mansion
Lets review the facts before we speculate. Osamas mansion was 700 metres away from a Pakistani military academy akin to West Point, AND was located in a cantonment residential zone reserved for ex-Army officers and ex-intelligence officers. I'll provide sources very soon, but bear with me. Now, of all people, I'd expect army officers and intelligence officials to be curious of the purpose of a mansion amidst an upper-class district. Particularly one with fenced walls and one that burnt trash regularly. The mansion itself was constructed by the ISI in 2005. The property was checked ONCE by the Pakistanis, and apparently no red flags were raised because they didn't return.
From the neighbours.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... bours.html
Note Pakistani opinion on Bin Laden.
The operation
4 M-64 Pavehawks (modified versions) loaded with Delta-6 Navy Seals headed off to the compound. It is
1) technologically feasible, Pavehawks have an operational range of 445 kilometres, added to this is the in-flight refueling capability and ability to mount external fuel tanks. American air bases in eastern Afghanistan, the closest is around 300 kilometres away
2) Pakistani radar and detection CANNOT detect helicopters flying 20 metres above the ground - see physics, the doppler effect and the ability of radar to detect it. It would have the same signature as a parked car.
3) The majority of Pakistani air-defense and EWS (Early Warning systems) are aimed at India, a major strategic concern for Pakistan.
4) Pakistani SAM batteries and missile defense would be hard pressed first, to identify and distinguish between a PAF Chinook and a U.S Pavehawk in the middle of the night. Radar signatures identical, assuming they even manage to get a signal. Relying the okay for a strike would require approval from the Chain of Command - a long process.
5)Repeated incursions of Pakistani airspace have been reported, an Indian UAV managed to stay aloft around 2 hours before notice. In addition, PAF scrambled jets only 30 MINS AFTER THE US forces had left the compound.
The Reaction
1) Obama denied Pakistani involvement
2) Al-Zardari denied Pakistani co-operation.
Which would lead us to believe
1) The U.S doesn't trust Pakistan.
2) Pakistan had no hand in providing information to the U.S on Obamas whereabouts, and given the picture I painted earlier about his location... well do I have to spell it out? I'll do so.
Either Pakistani intelligence is so inept that they couldn't locate Osama right under their noses, given the nature of the ISI I highly, highly doubt that.
Or Pakistani intelligence aided and abetted Osama and either turned a blind eye to his existence, or actively aided his position.
Lets go back to the original point. The impact of this on relations with Pakistan. Congress is fuming. Fuming. Now, at current, aid will not be withdrawn. Lets look on a larger timescale and frame. Post-Afghan withdrawal. We can assume safely that all aid will stop and be cut off. In light of this event anyway. The U.S has been hard-pressed to justify its aid to Pakistan, but given this, they will have to seriously reconsider this position. There are calls for slashing aid. After the Afghan withdrawal we are looking at an end to the U.S-Pakistan relationship and can and will see a resumption in Indo-US relationship, albeit more vigorously. In addition to shifting the game in South Asia, the potential for Pakistan to become a failed state is present.
A) Will the U.S allow Pakistan to become a failed state, and threaten Afghani stability bought at a very high price (and still not certain)?
B) Will Pakistan forsake the U.S as an ally (or vice-versa) and seek aid from China, and will China consent or profit from such an arrangement (Note chinese acquisition of resources, particularly lithium, in Afghanistan, and Pakistani PM Gilanis claim that South Asia should be Sino-centric and abandon American support.
C) If B) happens, the U.S and India will be forced together, and a convergence of interests (Chinese encirclement of India and the U.S inclinement to see China strategically penned in)
D) Are we looking at South Asia being the proxy strategic battleground between U.S and America, as opposed to the Taiwanese straits that everyone is keen to raise?
South Asia may well become the hotbed for the proxy strategic jousting between China and the U.S. Camps being India and the U.S, China and Pakistan.
Comments released by Gilani (Pakistani PM)point to this, when he mentioned that China would be welcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and derided constant American inteference.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/0503/ ... 8page%29/2
Yousuf Gilani might accept Manmohan Singh?s invite for India-Pak semifinal #wc11 ... 03982.html
Sources for previous statements.
(Pakistan ruling out Pakistan)http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/03/pakis...aden-raid.html
(bullshit magnet piece here)Pakistan intelligence official admits failure in Osama saga as suspicions deepen - International Business Times
(Jets scrambled) Political Punch ... -team.html
(US ruling out Pakistan)CIA Chief on Osama Raid: U.S. Ruled Out Involving Pakistan | Swampland
Most recently, from Tajikistan :
Wikileaks doc: Tajikistan warned U.S. that Pakistan was protecting Bin Laden « Hot Air
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