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Kevin Brown
07 Feb 11,, 22:21
Which Arab/Middle Eastern/Islamic country would be next to get a revolution after Tunisia and Egypt? My guess goes to Yemen, and maybe Jordan for obvious reasons and perhaps even Lebanon as I think the Hezbollah power-grab there is likely to do even more to polarize the political scene in that country. Also I've heard about protests out of the Sudan making lot of noise. Despite the fact that I get the feeling that President Omar al-Bashir is fairly popular or the people are at least content due to how the Sudanese economy has been doing in recent years, and the fact that he has the North pretty solidly locked down.

However, the country I overall think would be next outside the traditional Middle East would be Pakistan because the sheer unpopularity of the government due to a poor security situation, an economy in very ppor health, and allegations of a corruption and an failure to exhibit any control by President Zardari. Combined further with the facts that the President and current government is seen by some in Pakistani society to be kowtowing and not assertive enough against American pressure, and India to the East.

So any thoughts on where the next Revolution might be?

Persey
08 Feb 11,, 01:02
Last week, I thought it would be Jordan, but I think King Abdullah nipped it in the bud by acting quickly and making the right decisions.

King Abdullah had to replace his prime minister and cabinet last week. If things don't get better quick, they will come out and protest again.
Plus, they are the lone Israel ally left in the ME. Jordan is becoming too westernized and many resent that.

Kevin Brown
08 Feb 11,, 05:22
Last week, I thought it would be Jordan, but I think King Abdullah nipped it in the bud by acting quickly and making the right decisions.

King Abdullah had to replace his prime minister and cabinet last week. If things don't get better quick, they will come out and protest again.
Plus, they are the lone Israel ally left in the ME. Jordan is becoming too westernized and many resent that.

I wouldn't call Jordan an ally of Isreael(although it is neutral and maintains cordial relations with Israel in a number of areas) Also like you said things in Jordan are still devolping and it remains to be seen with the King's moves have stopped any further trouble, or will he face the same problems that the President's of Tunisia and Egypt are facing or have faced.

Something teels me he won't though as I've had the impression that King Abdullah has a strong feel for the pulse of opinion in his nation.

Double Edge
08 Feb 11,, 09:49
It won't be Yemen because the leader straight away announced he would not be standing for the next elections and the protests kinda lost steam after that.

Egypt is going to be the model of what will happen elsewhere. Get the process on this one right and the rest will follow :)

denizkuvetleri
08 Feb 11,, 11:41
Although prima facie Saudi Arabia looks fine it could hit the turbulence anytime....

A lot of the ME countries are now viewing the Turkish and Indonesian models with envy. The Arab street will always compare itself to the Turkish street.

Kevin Brown
08 Feb 11,, 20:56
Although prima facie Saudi Arabia looks fine it could hit the turbulence anytime....

A lot of the ME countries are now viewing the Turkish and Indonesian models with envy. The Arab street will always compare itself to the Turkish street.

The House of Saud again has the place pretty solidly locked down. Also oil prices have been sharply rising in recent weeks, which helps the economic situation in the Kingdom. Which is already well off already in comparison to it's neighbors.

denizkuvetleri
10 Feb 11,, 08:26
The House of Saud again has the place pretty solidly locked down. Also oil prices have been sharply rising in recent weeks, which helps the economic situation in the Kingdom. Which is already well off already in comparison to it's neighbors.

Petroleum is not a renewable resource. When that fuels starts to dry up then we will see the change. According to recent Wikileaks documents the oil is drying up at alarming rates, faster than we previously thought.

Double Edge
10 Feb 11,, 09:32
Petroleum is not a renewable resource. When that fuels starts to dry up then we will see the change. According to recent Wikileaks documents the oil is drying up at alarming rates, faster than we previously thought.
That sort of info is highly classifed among the supplier nations. I'd be sceptical of a third party claiming otherwise.

ProudKorean
10 Feb 11,, 13:24
I give my bet on Algeria, the Saudis, and maybe a second Iranian demo

visioninthedark
10 Feb 11,, 15:44
However, the country I overall think would be next outside the traditional Middle East would be Pakistan because the sheer unpopularity of the government due to a poor security situation, an economy in very ppor health, and allegations of a corruption and an failure to exhibit any control by President Zardari. Combined further with the facts that the President and current government is seen by some in Pakistani society to be kowtowing and not assertive enough against American pressure, and India to the East.

So any thoughts on where the next Revolution might be?

You are very right about what you have said above regarding Pakistan's problems.

However, the one major difference between Pakistan and all these other countries is that Pakistan is not an autocratic dictatorship. Although not perfect, however, in the political sphere, everyone is free to express their views and abuse each other openly. In fact, statements by political parties and people against government and politicians contain so much vulgarity and abusive words, that I think only 18+ should be allowed to read the daily Newspapers :)

Even during the Musharraf era, expression was open and free.

Though not perfect, the vocality and openness found in Pakistan is and has always been in marked contrast to everywhere else in the Middle East region.

It's not really comparable in this respect to the other countries in the Middle East.

Also, there are at least two safety valves, Parliament, and failing Parliament, the Military.

Parliament may, sensing the mood, get rid of the President or PM or any other ministers and fresh elections would be held.

Failing that, there is always the option for the Military to step in if people are really fed-up with the politicians. You may remember, when Musharraf took over he was supported by almost the whole general population.

So, in that respect, yes, the present government may go, but it won't come to the point of popular demonstrations like happening in Egypt since they don't have to do that to get rid of politicians or even Military dictators in Pakistan.

You may remember, Musharraf was forced out simply by protests from Lawyers ONLY.

One other point, it takes draconian suppression of the freedom of expression, and a police state suffocating its people to cause the kind of explosion you see in Tunisia or Egypt. That has never existed in Pakistan. Social issues ALONE are never enough to cause a popular explosive uprising ....

Now, about which countries will follow next, I totally agree with ProudKorean's comments above.

Kevin Brown
10 Feb 11,, 16:02
I give my bet on Algeria, the Saudis, and maybe a second Iranian demo

True to Algeria,

As there is talk of massive protests throughout the country coming up very soon. Even though Algeria did see large demonstrations before and after what happened in Tunisia as we all know.

bigross86
10 Feb 11,, 16:36
I know this sounds funny, but Israel might be the next to go. Bread prices are being increased by 3.33%, housing is up 30% since 2008, Water prices are up, and petrol which stood at NIS 5 ($1.35) per liter just two years ago, now costs NIS 7.29 ($1.97) per liter and has led to a rise in the cost of public transportation and electricity.

There was a rally planned for today that was postponed due to weather and will probably happen on Tuesday against Bibi, the government and the tax hikes. A Facebook group already has over 40,000 that say they will be attending. The only question that now remains is if these are actual activists or Facebook activists

Kevin Brown
10 Feb 11,, 22:42
I know this sounds funny, but Israel might be the next to go. Bread prices are being increased by 3.33%, housing is up 30% since 2008, Water prices are up, and petrol which stood at NIS 5 ($1.35) per liter just two years ago, now costs NIS 7.29 ($1.97) per liter and has led to a rise in the cost of public transportation and electricity.

There was a rally planned for today that was postponed due to weather and will probably happen on Tuesday against Bibi, the government and the tax hikes. A Facebook group already has over 40,000 that say they will be attending. The only question that now remains is if these are actual activists or Facebook activists

Wouldn't Bibi's Government just come apart and a snap election would occur, or at the very least a new PM?

bigross86
11 Feb 11,, 00:36
No one is really quite sure. Bibi is trying to hold onto his government, so he's promised to lower taxes amidst threats from his own party in both directions. Some are saying he'd better lower taxes or else they'll be voted out. The others are saying that the budget is dependent on these price and tax hikes and that lowering the taxes means that there will be cutbacks across the board which will lead to elections and they'll be voted out...

Kevin Brown
11 Feb 11,, 02:41
No one is really quite sure. Bibi is trying to hold onto his government, so he's promised to lower taxes amidst threats from his own party in both directions. Some are saying he'd better lower taxes or else they'll be voted out. The others are saying that the budget is dependent on these price and tax hikes and that lowering the taxes means that there will be cutbacks across the board which will lead to elections and they'll be voted out...

Sounds like a lose-lose situation for Bibi and his government

Double Edge
11 Feb 11,, 06:56
True to Algeria,

As there is talk of massive protests throughout the country coming up very soon. Even though Algeria did see large demonstrations before and after what happened in Tunisia as we all know.
The middle classes did not join in last time in Algeria and it fizzled out , what makes this time different ?

visioninthedark
11 Feb 11,, 08:21
No one is really quite sure. Bibi is trying to hold onto his government, so he's promised to lower taxes amidst threats from his own party in both directions. Some are saying he'd better lower taxes or else they'll be voted out. The others are saying that the budget is dependent on these price and tax hikes and that lowering the taxes means that there will be cutbacks across the board which will lead to elections and they'll be voted out...


Catch 22 for BiBi .... what is the alternative? what would the next guy be able to do differently .... and who is that most likely going to be?