PDA

View Full Version : Endgame in Egypt?



Bigfella
05 Feb 11,, 01:25
Sorry to start yet another thread, but with so many running there is no obvious place to put this.

It looks like a process may be in train to remove Mubarak. As predicted, the Army is keen to shape the process. It is interesting to see the US role in this. Sometimes working behind the scenes achieves more than speechifying. It will be interesting to see what level of acceptance a deal like this will have.



US in talks with Egypt officials on leader's exit
Simon Mann, United States

February 5, 2011

THE US is reportedly hatching a plan with Egyptian officials for beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak to leave office immediately, to be replaced by a transitional government that would steer the nation to elections in September.

The new government would be headed by Vice-President Omar Suleiman, with the backing of the Egyptian military, according to a report in The New York Times that was sourced to administration officials and Arab diplomats.

The moves continued a week of behind-the-scenes efforts by the administration to hasten reform in a bid to head off worsening violence that has threatened to engulf the long-time US ally.

The White House, however, would not confirm the detail of the report, saying only that discussions were ongoing.

The administration has been careful not to demand publicly Mr Mubarak's resignation, preferring instead to call for an orderly transition of power that ''must begin now'', while appearing to amplify that call once it became clear that Mr Mubarak was planning to remain in office until September.

The White House also wants to avoid being seen to be dictating terms to the Egyptians, especially after President Barack Obama's impassioned public plea that acknowledged it was ''not the role of any other country to determine Egypt's leaders''.

But with the crisis headed for a third week, US officials have sought backing for a plan that would begin immediately the process of constitutional reform.

Members of the administration, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defence Secretary Robert Gates, have spoken several times to their opposite numbers in Cairo.

On Thursday, Vice-President Joe Biden called Mr Suleiman urging that ''credible, inclusive negotiations begin immediately in order for Egypt to transition to a democratic government that addresses the aspirations of the Egyptian people''.

The New York Times said that, under the plan, Mr Suleiman would take the reins of government, backed by the chief of the Egyptian armed forces, Lieutenant-General Sami Enan, and Defence Minister Mohamed Tantawi.

The proposal also calls for the transitional government to include representatives of a wide range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to chart a course towards free and fair elections in September.

Others speculated that any plan would probably include Mr Mubarak staying on in an honorary role, with Mr Suleiman driving the changes.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron urged rapid progress in forming a broadly based government in Egypt, echoing a call by Mr Obama.


''Only a quick and orderly transition to a broad-based government will make it possible to overcome the challenges Egypt is now facing,'' the three leaders said in a joint statement released yesterday that was also signed by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Spanish leader Jose Luis Zapatero. ''That transition process must start now.''

Egyptian political scientist Amr Hamzawy, who joined demonstrators in Cairo, said he and others had discussed a plan put forward by Mr Suleiman that involved delegating President Mubarak's authority. He told a forum at Washington's Carnegie Endowment for International Peace by telephone: ''This is a face-saving solution, which is to my mind widely accepted in Egypt among many people.''

However, many US observers remained sceptical that the plan would succeed, after Mr Mubarak told some Western reporters that he feared there would be chaos in Egypt should he walk away from office.

The US didn't ''understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now'', he said.

Mr Suleiman (right), meanwhile, was blamed for having incited attacks on journalists and other Westerners by claiming foreigners in the midst of the demonstrations were stirring up trouble.

Despite appearing wrong-footed initially by the uprising in Egypt, Mr Obama's handling of the crisis generally has been praised by US political figures.

The US Senate supported the administration's line in a resolution - promoted by Republican John McCain and Democrat John Kerry - that urged Mr Mubarak to create a caretaker government but stopped short of demanding he quit.

The White House revealed the extent of its efforts to reach out to nervous leaders throughout the Middle East, saying Mr Obama had called President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen to commend reform efforts there.

Also yesterday, Mrs Clinton telephoned King Abdullah of Jordan, reaffirming the importance of the US-Jordan relationship.

State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley praised the king for responding to the unrest in Jordan. ''He's doing his best to respond to this growing aspiration, and we appreciate the leadership he's shown.''

With AGENCIES

US in talks with Egypt officials on leader's exit (http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-in-talks-with-egypt-officials-on-leaders-exit-20110204-1agxd.html)

T_igger_cs_30
05 Feb 11,, 01:46
Sorry, I cant help but have a bad feeling about this.........................

Ironduke
05 Feb 11,, 02:11
The Egyptian Army needs to find a Juan Carlos - a man willing to take charge, allow the chaos to settle, then transition power peacefully to a man such as El-Baradei.

I'm sure there are those among the Egyptian Army who favor democratization and are against the status quo that existed among Mubarak.

Mubarak was a soldier once, but not anymore - he has forgotten that he is expendable and there are a thousand men more able than him to govern Egypt. He is growing old, and senile, and is only concerned with passing on Egypt as an inheritance to his son and establishing a dynasty in the tradition of a king - he is a tyrant, not a soldier. He disrespects the uniform and service he claims.

random_reader
05 Feb 11,, 03:35
It is hard to make ends meet in Egypt, where about 45 percent of the population survives on just $2 a day


Egypt started subsidizing staples like bread, sugar and tea around World War II. Then when Gamal Abdel Nasser and his military allies overthrew the monarchy, the state leaned heavily on subsidizes to maintain social order and promote a socialist economic model. When the government tried to stop subsidizing bread in 1977, there were riots. Egyptians are generally not known as explosive people, but tell them you are raising the price of bread - of life - and beware.


The inspector explained why the system is so open to abuse. The government sells bakeries large bags of flour for 8 pounds, or $1.50

(Taken from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/world/africa/16iht-bread.4.9271958.html)

Sirs, it seems that democratic transition is all nice and all, but I wonder what the people themselves will do when they find that when Mr. Mubarak does leave, things won't be better, but rather quite possibly just get worse? Whatever comes next after Mr. Mubarak will have a hard time, though Mr. El-Baradei seems to be the only man with the name-recognition and clout necessary to calm the people; I'd like to note that among Twitter users, there's massive amounts of retweets of Mr. El-Baradei's statements.

I just have a hard time seeing much good after Mr. Mubarak's exit since the fact of the matter is, there are some problems that just aren't his fault such as the high price of a good.

dave lukins
05 Feb 11,, 10:07
(Taken from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/16/world/africa/16iht-bread.4.9271958.html)

Sirs, it seems that democratic transition is all nice and all, but I wonder what the people themselves will do when they find that when Mr. Mubarak does leave, things won't be better, but rather quite possibly just get worse?

I just have a hard time seeing much good after Mr. Mubarak's exit since the fact of the matter is, there are some problems that just aren't his fault such as the high price of a good.

Random Reader, don't forget that there are ladies members of WAB and some don't wish to be called Sir;)

Time, and lots of it, will tell if Egypt will return to some sort of 'normality'. Every change of Government is painful to its people and this will certainly be no exception. Change in Egypt is not renowned for its speed and I don't think the people will see any change for their benefit for many years.

tankie
05 Feb 11,, 10:49
I was talking (skype ) today to my good friends yasser and omar in luxor , they have not got the troubles cairo has but they have no lifeblood now as well , tourists ,they have shut their shops and stayed home , Yasser reckons it would be a bad thing if mubarak goes straight away .

dave lukins
05 Feb 11,, 11:05
I was talking (skype ) today to my good friends yasser and omar in luxor , they have not got the troubles cairo has but they have no lifeblood now as well , tourists ,they have shut their shops and stayed home , Yasser reckons it would be a bad thing if mubarak goes straight away .

Tourism is their life's blood and many do not know anything else. Millions make their living from the tourist trade and this has been badly damaged. It's going to take months to sort this mess out and tourist may be very wary of going there in the near future. I had earmarked Tunisia this year and Egypt next year. Bummer!! :frown:

tankie
05 Feb 11,, 11:43
You can still go to the red sea resorts nuts , Sharm el , but there is not the culture of Luxor or Cairo . Egypt next year will be sorted i reckon , the people need tourists .

dave lukins
05 Feb 11,, 12:20
You can still go to the red sea resorts nuts , Sharm el , but there is not the culture of Luxor or Cairo . Egypt next year will be sorted i reckon , the people need tourists .

Sharm el Sheikh it may be. Someone wants to send me there, 5* for a fortnight;)

Double Edge
05 Feb 11,, 12:49
THE US is reportedly hatching a plan with Egyptian officials for beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak to leave office immediately, to be replaced by a transitional government that would steer the nation to elections in September.

The new government would be headed by Vice-President Omar Suleiman, with the backing of the Egyptian military, according to a report in The New York Times that was sourced to administration officials and Arab diplomats.
And this is just a mere change of the indvidual rather than the regime.

What difference does installing Suleiman achieve, if the ppl want the regime out.

Mubarak should stay on and lay the groundwork for the transition of power to occur in Sept. It has to be smooth & orderly as once it occurs chances are it will become the template to follow for similar change elsewhere in the Arab world.

Double Edge
05 Feb 11,, 12:52
Tourism is their life's blood and many do not know anything else. Millions make their living from the tourist trade and this has been badly damaged. It's going to take months to sort this mess out and tourist may be very wary of going there in the near future. I had earmarked Tunisia this year and Egypt next year. Bummer!! :frown:

Vacation FAIL ! :biggrin:

3xWiBCIxjIk

random_reader
05 Feb 11,, 15:59
Random Reader, don't forget that there are ladies members of WAB and some don't wish to be called Sir;)

Time, and lots of it, will tell if Egypt will return to some sort of 'normality'. Every change of Government is painful to its people and this will certainly be no exception. Change in Egypt is not renowned for its speed and I don't think the people will see any change for their benefit for many years.

Ah, my bad.

I figured as much, though I see a powder keg with food prices any future leader there is going to have trouble with due to rising global costs within the next decade. Whoever heads it next will need some sort of safety valve and strong sense of legitimacy against this form of unrest.

Speaking of an endgame, I'm becoming more and more convinced that things won't end anytime soon at least not become newsworthy anymore. Some of my Egyptian friends have been going on about this:

YouTube - The diplomatic car that ran over 20 people in cairo (28th-Jan-2011) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cWOK0Lfh7w&skipcontrinter=1)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cWOK0Lfh7w&skipcontrinter=1

The car is unknown though there has been lots of speculation of American involvement and murmurings of Mubarak which suggests just how paranoid and angry the mob is.

Ironduke
06 Feb 11,, 06:52
That's really tragic - I hope to God it wasn't a US diplomatic car. We already have enough issues in that part of the world. If it is a US diplomatic car, it plays right into the hands of parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda oriented factions.