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snapper
30 Jan 11,, 15:24
Should President Mubarak depart Egypt voluntarily it seems that the UK may be his prefered home:

"Mubarak's two sons, Gamal and Ala, arrived in London late Saturday as the clashes in their home country continued. The Egyptian president's wife left Egypt later on Saturday and is also expected to arrive in London, Al Jazeera reported."

Source: Egypt's intelligence chief appointed vice-president; Mubarak's family leaves for London - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News (http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/egypt-s-intelligence-chief-appointed-vice-president-mubarak-s-family-leaves-for-london-1.339974)

Ironduke
01 Feb 11,, 08:53
If he stays on any longer - I think he'll end up underneath a gallows.

He can't see the writing on the wall - it's not his cabinet, it's not the ministers - it's him. People want him out, and are disregarding his moves to cover himself by making superficial political changes. He's old, his son's out. Time to retire and cede his position to El-Baradei.

Probably Switzerland, if he could leave.

Skywatcher
01 Feb 11,, 09:17
There's an airport next to that resort town in the Sinai that he's staying at. Could still fly out now.

kuku
01 Feb 11,, 11:46
He might have to wait around, the problem i see is that he can not go away without striking a deal with someone regarding his immunity and the safety of his funds in swiss banks (or some other tax havens).

Wayfarer
01 Feb 11,, 11:51
Jamaica.. put the Banana back into Banana Republic.

In all seriousness, I wonder whether or not El-Baradei is qualified for the post.

Column One: The pragmatic fantasy (http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=205559)

He did shield Irans nuclear program from the Security Council. :rolleyes:

JAD_333
01 Feb 11,, 17:49
I would like to see him retire to a quiet spot in his own country. Egypt is not a banana republic. He's not a Saddam Hussein. It would be to future Egypt's credit that he would be allowed to remain in peace. But the reality is that he would probably be arrested and tried. And all those who took part in his regime would be in jeopardy through trial testimony. This includes many current military and civilian leaders who want to remain in place. Their heads depend on his leaving the country. So, they may well insure that he leaves or that he "passes" away.

Mihais
01 Feb 11,, 17:58
I'm not so sure about those trials.More like a facade for transfer of wealth(that's an euphemism for robbery).
It's credit to Mubarak's character that he remained there.A cool headed general to the end.He did not panicked nor he went ballistic.At least that's what transpired so far.He's doomed,of course.

If I were connected with his regime,I'd send my family and all mobile wealth away.Plenty of wealthy Egyptians are reported to do just that.

kuku
02 Feb 11,, 05:29
I would like to see him retire to a quiet spot in his own country. Egypt is not a banana republic. He's not a Saddam Hussein. It would be to future Egypt's credit that he would be allowed to remain in peace. But the reality is that he would probably be arrested and tried. And all those who took part in his regime would be in jeopardy through trial testimony. This includes many current military and civilian leaders who want to remain in place. Their heads depend on his leaving the country. So, they may well insure that he leaves or that he "passes" away.
Even for that he needs some opposition to emerge that can claim a legitimacy to take over the government, he needs a signed paper guaranteeing his safety and prosperity, and i do not think his own sign or that of the government appointed by him would count.

The best situation would however be one where he is prosecuted by law (not a show trial), and peaceful protests remain peaceful all the way to a new government, thus ushering in a hopefully representative future for Egyptians, one in which no voice is silenced or suppressed.

JAD_333
02 Feb 11,, 06:09
Even for that he needs some opposition to emerge that can claim a legitimacy to take over the government, he needs a signed paper guaranteeing his safety and prosperity, and i do not think his own sign or that of the government appointed by him would count.

As you know by now, he said he wants to out his term, which ends in September. He also said he would not run again, a rather obvious conclusion. He also said he will not leave his homeland. This poses a real dilemma for the opposition. Should they accept him as what amounts to an interim leader or continue to support the protests? Well, he could promise to hold fair and free elections and goose the economic stimulus plan he started recently to mollify the jobless. But it's not at all certain that the demonstrators would accept that, nor that they would stop demonstrating even if opposition leaders called on them to. It seems to me it all boils down to what the Army wants.


The best situation would however be one where he is prosecuted by law (not a show trial), and peaceful protests remain peaceful all the way to a new government, thus ushering in a hopefully representative future for Egyptians, one in which no voice is silenced or suppressed.

I have to disagree with you on the trial, first, because he hasn't "broken" any laws, so far as I know. Keep in mind that 30 years of emergency rule gave him extraordinary powers, all legal under Egyptian law. I don't see him as an evil ruler within the context of Egypt's political structure and dynamics. He believes he has kept Egypt stable all these years. Secondly, a trial would inevitably end up as a show trial in which he would be held culpable for everything imaginable. It would also drag in other government and military figures, guilty or not. I don't see how Egyptians benefit from such a trial. A hanging is a lousy way to start a just democracy. It would be better for the Egyptians to put Mubarak and the strongmen era behind them and treat it as a step in their evolution to greater political freedom.

JAD_333
02 Feb 11,, 06:22
Text of Mubarak's TV address yesterday.


Full text of Mubarak's speech - Middle East - Al Jazeera English (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/20112221313603381.html)

kuku
03 Feb 11,, 04:48
As you know by now, he said he wants to out his term, which ends in September. He also said he would not run again, a rather obvious conclusion. He also said he will not leave his homeland. This poses a real dilemma for the opposition. Should they accept him as what amounts to an interim leader or continue to support the protests? Well, he could promise to hold fair and free elections and goose the economic stimulus plan he started recently to mollify the jobless. But it's not at all certain that the demonstrators would accept that, nor that they would stop demonstrating even if opposition leaders called on them to. It seems to me it all boils down to what the Army wants.

I think opposition leaders working on the streets might work, then again every time on turns on the TV things are different.


I have to disagree with you on the trial, first, because he hasn't "broken" any laws, so far as I know. Keep in mind that 30 years of emergency rule gave him extraordinary powers, all legal under Egyptian law. I don't see him as an evil ruler within the context of Egypt's political structure and dynamics. He believes he has kept Egypt stable all these years. Secondly, a trial would inevitably end up as a show trial in which he would be held culpable for everything imaginable. It would also drag in other government and military figures, guilty or not. I don't see how Egyptians benefit from such a trial. A hanging is a lousy way to start a just democracy. It would be better for the Egyptians to put Mubarak and the strongmen era behind them and treat it as a step in their evolution to greater political freedom.
Its Egypt, one of the great authoritarian cruel nations on Earth, all they need to do is start opening up cases, Mubarak and his regime will have a whole bucket load of criminal cases under any sort of human legal system.

Ironduke
03 Feb 11,, 04:57
Saudi Arabia, I think.

Or a hangman's noose.

Everyday that passes, he moves further from Saudi Arabia and closer to the noose.

JAD_333
03 Feb 11,, 07:25
Its Egypt, one of the great authoritarian cruel nations on Earth, all they need to do is start opening up cases, Mubarak and his regime will have a whole bucket load of criminal cases under any sort of human legal system.

Kuku:

You want cruel; try Idi Amin's Uganda'; Pol Pot's Kampuchea; Kim Jong-Il's N Korea, Stalin's USSR, Myanmar... Modern Egypt has never been in that class. Egyptians have never suffered the horrible cruelty experienced by millions of people in those countries.

Authoritarian is an accurate label. Egypt has not been a good place to practice opposition politics or to speak out against the leadership. But it is a relatively open and culturally vibrant country. How many US citizens studied, worked or lived in the countries I mentioned above? Close to zero. How many in Egypt? 52,000 at last count.

And for what it's worth, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the #2 man to Bin Laden was tried, convicted, imprisoned and released by Egypt. That would never have happened in N. Korea, etal.

Could you be more specific as to the crimes Mubarak should be tried for...

Chunder
03 Feb 11,, 08:59
The Best Bet for the fella if he does infact leave, is to Migrate to a country that is signatory to a few Treaties that would not allow extradition if they suspected the fella were to befall justice contrary to the treaty to which they have signed.

kuku
03 Feb 11,, 17:36
Kuku:

You want cruel; try Idi Amin's Uganda'; Pol Pot's Kampuchea; Kim Jong-Il's N Korea, Stalin's USSR, Myanmar... Modern Egypt has never been in that class. Egyptians have never suffered the horrible cruelty experienced by millions of people in those countries.

Authoritarian is an accurate label. Egypt has not been a good place to practice opposition politics or to speak out against the leadership. But it is a relatively open and culturally vibrant country. How many US citizens studied, worked or lived in the countries I mentioned above? Close to zero. How many in Egypt? 52,000 at last count.

And for what it's worth, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the #2 man to Bin Laden was tried, convicted, imprisoned and released by Egypt. That would never have happened in N. Korea, etal.

Could you be more specific as to the crimes Mubarak should be tried for...
I am afraid i will not be able to talk in terms of the degree of cruelness, there has been a standard policy of locking away and torturing people the government consider as opposition, and it is something that the Egyptians must Punish if they get the opportunity. Something i think they will be able to prosecute them on, if they wish to, this being the revolution and all.