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Ironduke
27 Jan 11,, 08:28
Fellow Members,

With the fall of the Ben Ali's government in Tunisia, it appears as if the revolution is spreading. Now Mubarak's government in Egypt is facing critical pressure from the population.

Will Mubarak be able to weather the storm? Will the revolution, begun in Tunisia, sweep the Arab world? Is this the dawn of a democratic age in the Arab world? What will be the impact on world history of these events?

Objective: Discuss the impact the revolution in Tunisia has had on the government and population of Egypt.

Questions
is this beginning of a widespread chain of revolutions in the Arab word?
are their any analogies or connections in idea, practice, and spirit between these events, and the Rose, Cedar, and Orange Revolutions in Georgia, Lebanon, and the Ukraine?
if so, who were the actors that instigated these, and if so, are their unintended consequences in international relations, a force unleashed that those who "instigated" them now cannot control?
is this the dawn of a new age of Shura and Islamic Democracy (in the tradition of the moderate Christian Democracy of Europe?
how can we ensure that Al-Qaeda sympathizers are shut out from a movement that is currently a largely peaceful revolutionary movement?


Clinton Urges Restraint, Political Reform in Egypt

David Gollust | State Department January 26, 2011
In-Depth Coverage

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is urging all parties in the political upheaval in Egypt to exercise restraint and avoid violence. She called for the government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a key U.S. ally, to seize the moment and implement reforms.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the public appeal to Egyptians at a joint news event with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, after talks dominated by the recent unrest in Egypt and Tunisia and stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts.

In calling for restraint by all the parties in Egypt, Clinton said the United States has consistently urged the Mubarak government to be responsive to calls for greater political reform and openness.

"We support the universal rights of the Egyptian people including the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly," she said. "And we urge the Egyptian authorities not to prevent peaceful protests or block communications, including on social media sites. We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time, to implement political, economic and social reforms to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."

Jordan has also been the scene of anti-government protests in recent weeks. But Clinton stressed U.S. support for Jordanian reform efforts, noting parliamentary elections there in November that international observers held to be fair and transparent.

Foreign Minister Judeh, stressed his government’s tolerance of public protests he said were understandable given economic problems in his import-dependent country.

"I think that we have to differential between economic hardship, which we have, and also many countries around the world," he said. "Jordan is not living in a bubble. It is part and parcel of the fabric of these international economies. And between political stability, which we are blessed with in Jordan, with the Hashemite leadership - his majesty the king - who initiates reform from within."

Foreign Minister Judeh cast the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process as the region’s key problem. He said a resolution of the conflict could trigger economic integration and progress that could temper anger now being seen in demonstrations.

Clinton said the Obama administration remains committed to the peace process even though President Barack Obama made no mention of it in his State of the Union address.

"Make no mistake. We are absolutely committed to the process, and we believe that a framework agreement that resolves the core issues not only remains possible, but necessary," she said. "As the foreign minister said, he will be meeting later with [U.S. envoy] George Mitchell. We have a constant dialogue going on with many of our friends and partners in the region and around the world. We remain committed to a two-state solution."

Clinton said she will meet late next week in Munich with U.S. partners in the international Middle East Quartet - Russia, the European Union and the United Nations. The grouping formed in 2002 has lately focused on building the infrastructure for Palestinian statehood.
Source: Voice of America, via GlobalSecurity.org
Clinton Urges Restraint, Political Reform in Egypt (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2011/01/mil-110126-voa08.htm)

Ironduke
27 Jan 11,, 08:32
Additonal resource, from Voice of America via GlobalSecurity.org:

Protests in Egypt, Tunisia Spark Turmoil

Edward Yeranian | Cairo January 26, 2011
In-Depth Coverage

Egyptian security forces have deployed en masse across the capital, Cairo, Wednesday amid calls by protest leaders to continue demonstrating despite a ban.

In central Cairo, Egyptian activists clashed with security forces stationed nearby as thousands of Interior Ministry troops stood watch along key roads and bridges to keep passersby from congregating.

The Egyptian Interior Ministry warned on its website that public demonstrations would not be tolerated. Protest organizers reported scattered mobile phone outages and a blockage of the social websites Twitter and Facebook to prevent them from mobilizing supporters.

Top opposition activist Abdul Jalil Mustapha called on President Hosni Mubarak not to seek re-election.

He said the opposition is asking President Mubarak to announce that he will not run for re-election and that his son, Gamal, will not run in his place. Mustapha also insisted that both houses of parliament be dissolved and transparent elections be held.

The Egyptian stock market also reportedly dropped 4 percent as investors worried about the implications of a rise in turmoil.

In nearby Tunisia, security forces fired tear gas at protesters close to the prime minister’s office, as groups of young men threw stones and tried to break through a barricade. Protesters are demanding that interim Prime Minister Mohammed Gannouchi step down.

The prime minister is due to announce a reshuffle of his cabinet. Meanwhile, Education Minister Ahmad Ibrahim urged Tunisians not to get carried away by demonstrations.

He said it's normal for people to have a certain civic-awareness and to be concerned about protecting the gains of the revolution and keeping it from spinning out of control. But, he adds, it is imperative that protests be organized and peaceful and not stop the country from functioning.

An active discussion continues in the Arab press about the possibility of popular protests spreading from one Arab country to the next. However Khattar Abou Diab, who teaches political science at the University of Paris III, insists that each Arab country has its own internal logic.

He said that despite what people say, the idea of contagion from one Arab country to another is not a foregone conclusion and that the situation does not resemble that of eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. He stressed that each country has its own context and that government structures vary widely. Tunisia, he noted, has a tradition of separation between religion and state, and a vibrant middle class which led the recent revolt. The army, he added, also joined the revolt.

Conditions differ in Egypt, concludes Abou Diab, because the government, the army and the security forces have a "symbiotic relationship", and the state has a Pharoanic tradition of strong leaders. But, he urged President Mubarak to work slowly to democratize the system to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran from taking advantage of a political vacuum.
Protests in Egypt, Tunisia Spark Turmoil (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2011/01/mil-110126-voa09.htm)

tantalus
27 Jan 11,, 11:43
there is a link of inspiration based on the close timing of events, protesters in various other countries have stated the events in Tunisia as inspiration, but ofcourse internal realities as expected differ, as the above article states in Egypt the army still supports the government unlike Tunisia and there is no common oppressor like the times of the fall of the soviet bloc, perhaps the strongest common denominator here is discontent with economic situations, a perception of corruption and the lack of tranparency in democratic processes , with the success in Tunisia acting as a spark, this does not mean the same outcome however, as the internal realities in the other countries apart from Tunisia appear quite different, however I do concede I dont know much about it, interested to here WAB opinion

The egpytian government have taken a dangerous approach in not allowwing the protests

Yemen protests have also gathered pace


Thousands of Yemenis are demonstrating in the capital Sanaa, calling on Ali Abdullah Saleh, president for more than 30 years, to step down.

This comes after mass protests in Egypt and a popular uprising in Tunisia that ousted its long-time leader.

Protesters gathered in several locations of the city on Thursday morning, chanting that it was "time for change", and referring to the popular uprising in Tunisia that ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali earlier this month.

Economic and social problems
Poorest country in the Middle East with 40% of Yemenis living on less than $2 (£1.25) a day
More than two-thirds of the population under the age of 24
Illiteracy stands at over 50%, unemployment at 35%
Dwindling oil reserves and falling oil revenues; Little inward investment
Acute water shortage
Weak central government
BBC News - Yemen protests: Thousands call on president to leave (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864)

based on this list, hardly seems surpising there are protests, Tunisia was merely a spark


I wonder if there is a common link in the age of protesters across Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, they seem to be quite young?

Kevin Brown
27 Jan 11,, 17:16
there is a link of inspiration based on the close timing of events, protesters in various other countries have stated the events in Tunisia as inspiration, but ofcourse internal realities as expected differ, as the above article states in Egypt the army still supports the government unlike Tunisia and there is no common oppressor like the times of the fall of the soviet bloc, perhaps the strongest common denominator here is discontent with economic situations, a perception of corruption and the lack of tranparency in democratic processes , with the success in Tunisia acting as a spark, this does not mean the same outcome however, as the internal realities in the other countries apart from Tunisia appear quite different, however I do concede I dont know much about it, interested to here WAB opinion

The egpytian government have taken a dangerous approach in not allowwing the protests

Yemen protests have also gathered pace

.


BBC News - Yemen protests: Thousands call on president to leave (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12295864)

based on this list, hardly seems surpising there are protests, Tunisia was merely a spark


I wonder if there is a common link in the age of protesters across Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, they seem to be quite young?

To answer your question about the connection between age and the Arab protesters. I would say that could be explained due to the fact that mainly the youth in countries like Tunisia and Egypt have been affected by the recent and lingering economic and social problems in these two nations. In addtion, social media which appeals primarily to younger generations(but recently older one's also worldwide) as Facebook, Twitter, and texting have been important tools used in these events. This was also evidented through their use in the 2009 Green Revolution in Iran.

Double Edge
27 Jan 11,, 17:48
is this beginning of a widespread chain of revolutions in the Arab word?

Only going to go with this one. It asks just because the leader was overthrown in Tunis that whether the same 'might' happen elsewhere.

I don't think it will in Egypt for the following reasons
- Tunis is a 10 million population country vs Egypt's which is much larger. So the startup energy in Egypt is going to be higher. All the middle class & trade unions are going to have to join in like in Tunis. That's asking for a lot.
- The ratio of educated people in Tunis is higher compared to Egypt.
- The press in Egypt is not as supressed as the one in Tunis was, so this acts as a safety vale in some aspects.

Algeria did not go up because there wasn't sufficient buy-in from the middle class.

This is a summary of the article posted by me earlier here (http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/sw-asia-iraqi-campaign-iranian-question-africa/58362-revolution-tunisia-other-disturbences-north-africa.html#post784039).

Persey
28 Jan 11,, 04:08
Also, do not overlook the tensions in happening in Lebanon.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGzjZT7yTAk&feature=player_embedded




Lebanese government collapses
Government falls after Hezbollah and allies withdraw from coalition in row over UN probe into murder of Rafiq al-Hariri.
Last Modified: 13 Jan 2011 07:34 GMT

Lebanon's unity government has collapsed after the Hezbollah movement and its political allies resigned from the cabinet over arguments stemming from a UN investigation into the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, in 2005.

There has been growing political tension in Lebanon amid signs that Hezbollah members could be indicted by the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).

Ten ministers tendered their resignations on Wednesday after reports that al-Hariri's son Saad, the prime minister, had refused their call to convene a cabinet meeting to discuss controversial issues including the investigation.

An eleventh member, Adnan Sayyed Hussein, later stood down from the 30-member cabinet, automatically bringing down al-Hariri's government.

The request to convene a cabinet meeting came on Tuesday after Syria and Saudi Arabia, who have for months been attempting to act as mediators in Lebanon's political crisis, announced their efforts had failed.

The standoff between al-Hariri's camp and Hezbollah over the UN tribunal has paralysed the government for months and sparked concerns of sectarian violence similar to the one that brought the country close to civil war in May 2008.

Read full article at:
AJE - Al Jazeera English (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...356430829.html)

bigross86
28 Jan 11,, 08:25
Feels pretty good being the only (relatively) stable country in the region. Maybe the US will cut us some slack now...

RoccoR
28 Jan 11,, 09:16
tantalus, et al,

I'm in Sanaa now.



... ... ...

Yemen protests have also gathered pace

... ... ...

I wonder if there is a common link in the age of protesters across Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, they seem to be quite young?
(COMMENT)

These countries all have similarities; but I tend to think (I get the feel) that it was contagious and more spontaneous; inspirational.

Most Respectively,
R

chakos
28 Jan 11,, 09:55
Feels pretty good being the only (relatively) stable country in the region. Maybe the US will cut us some slack now...

Nope, the J00s are still evil and the creator of all the worlds problems,

In fact this is just another Zionist/Mossad conspiracy to bring down the legitimate government of another Islamic state...

bigross86
28 Jan 11,, 10:39
Except without sharks this time

BoxingManiac
28 Jan 11,, 15:53
A curfew is to be imposed from 6pm - 7am in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria.

I doubt its going to stop the people protesting. Looks like President Mubarak's days are numbered. I was watching Al-Jazeera English live. They have got live pictures in Cairo. While i'm writing this the room that Al Jazeera were filming in has been raided by Egyptian Police and some of there camera's have been taken. It took long for the police to get there.

Makes me think if Mubarak falls who is going take over? Muslim Brotherhood? If so what does that mean for the middle east and more important Israel?

BoxingManiac
28 Jan 11,, 15:58
President Hosni Mubarak will be making an address the nation shortly.

Mubarak is going to use the army to help the police enforce the curfew. This is going to get nasty!

Kevin Brown
28 Jan 11,, 16:31
A curfew is to be imposed from 6pm - 7am in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria.

I doubt its going to stop the people protesting. Looks like President Mubarak's days are numbered. I was watching Al-Jazeera English live. They have got live pictures in Cairo. While i'm writing this the room that Al Jazeera were filming in has been raided by Egyptian Police and some of there camera's have been taken. It took long for the police to get there.

Makes me think if Mubarak falls who is going take over? Muslim Brotherhood? If so what does that mean for the middle east and more important Israel?

From what I understand the Muslim Brotherhood appears to be sitting this out? Whether this is part of their stratagy or something else remains to be seen. However, I've also been hearing that a number of people in Egypt are pretty upset with the Brotherhood also.

BoxingManiac
28 Jan 11,, 16:36
From what I understand the Muslim Brotherhood appears to be sitting this out? Whether this is part of their stratagy or something else remains to be seen. However, I've also been hearing that a number of people in Egypt are pretty upset with the Brotherhood also.

The Muslim Brotherhood on Thursday announced that they will be protesting. True not everyone in Egypt agrees with the MB. They are the biggest opposition to President Mubarak.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28alexandria.html

Kevin Brown
28 Jan 11,, 20:01
The Muslim Brotherhood on Thursday announced that they will be protesting. True not everyone in Egypt agrees with the MB. They are the biggest opposition to President Mubarak.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28alexandria.html

Hmm, first I've heard of it. If so, then I see things getting worse for Mubarak & co.

Skywatcher
28 Jan 11,, 20:17
tantalus, et al,

I'm in Sanaa now.



(COMMENT)

These countries all have similarities; but I tend to think (I get the feel) that it was contagious and more spontaneous; inspirational.

Most Respectively,
R

Wonder if it will spread to Iran, given the mounting economic pressure there. The Basiji will get crushed by the Artesh if it ever comes to that.

Ironduke
28 Jan 11,, 21:27
Looks like the movement is gaining momentum:

Egypt protests: Curfew in cities as army deployed

Egypt has extended its curfew to all cities as anti-government demonstrators in Cairo besiege key buildings, including the foreign ministry and the state broadcaster.

The headquarters of the governing NDP party has been set ablaze.

President Hosni Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority of his 31 years in power, has ordered the army onto the streets of Cairo.

Earlier, it was announced he would make a statement, but he is yet to appear.

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said: "Every minute that goes by without the president making that address to the nation makes him look weaker and will convince people he is losing his grip."
Military helicopters

Across the country, tens of thousands of protesters turned out after Friday prayers and clashed with police.

The curfew is now in effect, but live television pictures from Cairo continue to show large crowds on the streets.

Correspondents in Cairo say military helicopters are circling overhead.

Some of those breaking the curfew targeted the state broadcasting building, which is guarded by the armed forces.

Also targeted was the headquarters of the ruling NDP party - a major symbol of President Mubarak's rule regime. The BBC's Wyre Davies reported from Cairo that there was no sign of the police or military as the building was enveloped in flames.

Demonstrators have been cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people, correspondents say.

Internet and phone services - both mobile and landline - have been severely disrupted, although protesters are using proxies to work around the restrictions.

Mobile operator Vodafone Egypt said in a statement that it was obliged by law to suspend services at the request of the authorities.

Reports say Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei has been placed under house arrest. Earlier, he was soaked by water cannon and surrounded by police as he joined protesters on the streets of Cairo.

In Sinai, BBC Arabic said its sources reported that Bedouins were besieging a police station and armed men had taken control of the road leading to Rafah, in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has appealed to Egypt to do "everything" to restrain the security forces, urging the government to reverse its block on mobile phone and internet communications.

She also said the protesters should not use violence.

The US counts Egypt as an ally in the Middle East and has so far been cautious about taking sides. However, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Washington would review its aid to Egypt based on events in the coming days.

Egypt is the fourth largest recipient of American aid, after Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel.

Meanwhile, the US is advising its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Egypt, and several airlines - including Egyptian and BA - have cancelled or rescheduled flights.
Inspired by Tunisia

At least eight people have been killed and hundreds injured since the protests against unemployment, corruption and rising prices began on Tuesday. Up to 1,000 people have been arrested.

The unrest follows an uprising in Tunisia two weeks ago, in which President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was toppled after 23 years in power.
Source: BBC News
BBC News - Egypt protests: Curfew in cities as army deployed (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12311007)

haim357
28 Jan 11,, 22:02
it sounds like it's game over for Mubarak, Keep your fingers crossed that if the regime is overthrown that the Muslim Brotherhood the most organized opposition group in Egypt don't take power. That would be bad,

zraver
28 Jan 11,, 22:11
I keep seeing ghosts of 1989/90. I just hope the MB does not wrest control and Egypt can embrace effective representative government.

xinhui
28 Jan 11,, 22:20
full coverage in all major Chinese media, it is somewhat of a surprise to me
???????????[????]_????_??? (http://news.ifeng.com/photo/hdnews/detail_2011_01/26/4460268_0.shtml)

Mihais
28 Jan 11,, 22:20
Feels pretty good being the only (relatively) stable country in the region. Maybe the US will cut us some slack now...

Yeah,here's a pat on the back.Now go check the Merkava Mk4,soldier.You'll need it.Btw,do you need any trained infantrymen?

NSmilie
28 Jan 11,, 22:21
it sounds like it's game over for Mubarak, Keep your fingers crossed that if the regime is overthrown that the Muslim Brotherhood the most organized opposition group in Egypt don't take power. That would be bad,

Depends on how much support they have and whether they can gather enough public support. I wonder how much involvement we are going to see from groups like Al-Qaeda? Just thought about this, does anyone have numbers on how much support the MB actually has in the country?:confused:

Mihais
28 Jan 11,, 22:24
I keep seeing ghosts of 1989/90. I just hope the MB does not wrest control and Egypt can embrace effective representative government.

They are a$$holes,but they are yours(and by extent ours).If we're talking in human terms I agree they deserve to go to hell.If we talk realpolitik,no thanks to representative government.Like it or not.

Skywatcher
28 Jan 11,, 22:43
Mubarak just dissolved Parliament. A

Anyhow, the Army is not going to let the MB take over the country.

Mihais
28 Jan 11,, 23:00
You are assuming that somehow the army is a big deal.If you mean the upper echelons you may be correct.But I doubt the lower echelons ahve seen anything but corrpution,abuse of power and incompetence on the part of their superiors.Just because the Army is not allowed to talk about doesn't mean they won't arrive at the same conclusions at the same time.Their army is a cosncript one in a large part and that means the bulk of the army is not isolated from the problems of the rest of the nation.They may obey,to a point.Then they will change sides.Don't forget that today some policemen fraternized with the protesters and the police are,as a rule,even more inclined than the military in defending the establishment.
Like Z said,it may be 1989 again.I've seen the movie(to be fair,I've seen a LOT of movies and I've interviewed a LOT of actors in that particular event) .At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like:biggrin: )

Skywatcher
28 Jan 11,, 23:06
You are assuming that somehow the army is a big deal.If you mean the upper echelons you may be correct.But I doubt the lower echelons ahve seen anything but corrpution,abuse of power and incompetence on the part of their superiors.Just because the Army is not allowed to talk about doesn't mean they won't arrive at the same conclusions at the same time.Their army is a cosncript one in a large part and that means the bulk of the army is not isolated from the problems of the rest of the nation.They may obey,to a point.Then they will change sides.Don't forget that today some policemen fraternized with the protesters and the police are,as a rule,even more inclined than the military in defending the establishment.
Like Z said,it may be 1989 again.I've seen the movie(to be fair,I've seen a LOT of movies and I've interviewed a LOT of actors in that particular event) .At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like:biggrin: )

I was thinking in respect to the Muslim Brotherhood trying to sneak in a takeover like 1979 in Iran (they don't exactly have a charismatic leader like Khomenei).

I agree that the rank and file of the Egyptian Army cannot be relied on to shoot at protestors (if I was Mubarak, I certainly wouldn't take that risk).

S2
28 Jan 11,, 23:08
"...Mubarak just dissolved Parliament."

Could you provide links or, at least, cite sources? MSNBC reported that Mubarak dissolved his cabinet.

Mubarak On T.V. Demands Cabinet Resignations-MSNBC Jan. 28, 2011 (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41318467/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/)

Don't know if the M.B. is actively involved. Don't know that they need to be. All you need to know is that it's Friday and trouble started today after the gatherings at mosques around the city.

S2
28 Jan 11,, 23:12
"At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like ):biggrin:"

You are forgiven. Don't go all mercenary now but, yeah, bigross had best get down to the motorpool and make his Merkava all spiffy. We might be finding out how Merkavas and M-1s handle each other sooner than we'd like.

Skywatcher
28 Jan 11,, 23:14
Sorry sir, I thought I had linked the CNN site.


In another boost to the protest movement, the country's largest opposition group -- the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood -- also threw its support behind the demonstrations. If the group's backers join the protests on Friday, it could swell the numbers on the streets significantly. But the group has stopped short of an outright call for its backers to turn out.

The Muslim Brotherhood called on its website for protests to remain peaceful. It also called for new parliamentary elections under judicial supervision, the introduction of far-reaching reforms and the lifting of emergency laws in force since 1981.

The Brotherhood made a surprisingly strong showing in parliamentary elections in 2005, when it won 20 percent of seats and served as the main opposition bloc in the legislature. In the latest parliament elections held in November, the Brotherhood failed to win even a single seat. It decried widespread fraud by the ruling party and boycotted the runoffs.

Read more: FoxNews.com - Nobel Peace Winner Returns to Egypt to Lead Anti-Government Protest Movement (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/27/egypts-protests-pose-threat-regime/#ixzz1CNI2PJwo)


The MB jumped on the boat a little late, so them trying to latter make any claims of having 'led' the revolution like the ayatollahs did in 1979 would look very fishy to the Egyptians.

S2
28 Jan 11,, 23:31
A Manifesto For Change In Egypt-Mohammed elBaradei DAILY BEAST Jan. 29, 2011 (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-26/mohamed-elbaradei-the-return-of-the-challenger/)

"When Egypt had parliamentary elections only two months ago, they were completely rigged. The party of President Hosni Mubarak left the opposition with only 3 percent of the seats. Imagine that. And the American government said that it was “dismayed.” Well, frankly, I was dismayed that all it could say is that it was dismayed. The word was hardly adequate to express the way the Egyptian people felt.

Then, as protests built in the streets of Egypt following the overthrow of Tunisia’s dictator, I heard Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s assessment that the government in Egypt is “stable” and “looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people”. I was flabbergasted—and I was puzzled. What did she mean by stable, and at what price? Is it the stability of 29 years of “emergency” laws, a president with imperial power for 30 years, a parliament that is almost a mockery, a judiciary that is not independent? Is that what you call stability? I am sure not. And I am positive that it is not the standard you apply to other countries. What we see in Egypt is pseudo-stability, because real stability only comes with a democratically elected government.

If you would like to know why the United States does not have credibility in the Middle East, that is precisely the answer. People were absolutely disappointed in the way you reacted to Egypt’s last election. You reaffirmed their belief that you are applying a double standard for your friends, and siding with an authoritarian regime just because you think it represents your interests. We are staring at social disintegration, economic stagnation, political repression, and we do not hear anything from you, the Americans, or for that matter from the Europeans.

So when you say the Egyptian government is looking for ways to respond to the needs of the Egyptian people, I feel like saying, “Well, it’s too late!” This isn’t even good realpolitik. We have seen what happened in Tunisia, and before that in Iran. That should teach people there is no stability except when you have government freely chosen by its own people.

Of course, you in the West have been sold the idea that the only options in the Arab world are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists. That’s obviously bogus. If we are talking about Egypt, there is a whole rainbow variety of people who are secular, liberal, market-oriented, and if you give them a chance they will organize themselves to elect a government that is modern and moderate. They want desperately to catch up with the rest of the world."

Mihais
28 Jan 11,, 23:44
[
You are forgiven. Don't go all mercenary now but, yeah, bigross had best get down to the motorpool and make his Merkava all spiffy. We might be finding out how Merkavas and M-1s handle each other sooner than we'd like.

Thank you,Sir.Truly an officer&gentleman:)

Luckily those M1s aren't ''real'' ones.More like monkey models.Poor Arabs,they always get those.As Forrest Gump said:sh!t happens.And I didn't thought of the mercenary work.I just thought of helping a friend in a time of need.:biggrin:

On a personal term I'm quite interested in Jordan,IMO.Probably the best led and the best policed Arab country.The best army,also.The only ones,btw,that could hope to match the Israelis in quality.

What is of more immediate consequence for us is the economy.Oil jumped 4 bucks in a day and all we had was a good fight between protesters and police.When Egypt goes bust we can kiss economic recovery good-bye.While US is not really concerned about it(how do you manage to be always this lucky),Europe has a boatload of problems.This could the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.

Mihais
28 Jan 11,, 23:57
A Manifesto For Change In Egypt-Mohammed elBaradei DAILY BEAST Jan. 29, 2011 (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-26/mohamed-elbaradei-the-return-of-the-challenger/)

"
Of course, you in the West have been sold the idea that the only options in the Arab world are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists. That’s obviously bogus. If we are talking about Egypt, there is a whole rainbow variety of people who are secular, liberal, market-oriented, and if you give them a chance they will organize themselves to elect a government that is modern and moderate. They want desperately to catch up with the rest of the world."


Good,let's give ''democracy'' a chance.How many of these secular,free market oriented people are in Egypt(for that matter in any Arab nation)? What these chaps forget is that both these and the illiterates have the same vote.Let's even say that all goes fine.The good guys ride the wave of hope and form the government.Then what?People that were under tyranny for decades want results,NOW,not LATER.Does it changes somehow the food price?DOes it changes any of the fundamental problems,quick enough to make a difference?I'd like to see that.But I doubt it.

For convenience's sake I left aside ignored the compulsory internal struggles of any revolutionary government.

S2
29 Jan 11,, 00:02
"While US is not really concerned about it(how do you manage to be always this lucky)..."

Dunno there lad. I'd say we're damned concerned. Things haven't been this bad since the depression of the early 30s. The recession of the late 70s/early 80s wasn't close to this bad IMV.

"...Europe has a boatload of problems..."

And a boatload of talent.

"...This could the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back."

Might just spur greater efficiencies too. One thing's for sure. You don't get a choice but to work through it unless checking out is an option.

Skywatcher
29 Jan 11,, 00:03
Thank you,Sir.Truly an officer&gentleman:)

Luckily those M1s aren't ''real'' ones.More like monkey models.Poor Arabs,they always get those.As Forrest Gump said:sh!t happens.And I didn't thought of the mercenary work.I just thought of helping a friend in a time of need.:biggrin:

On a personal term I'm quite interested in Jordan,IMO.Probably the best led and the best policed Arab country.The best army,also.The only ones,btw,that could hope to match the Israelis in quality.

What is of more immediate consequence for us is the economy.Oil jumped 4 bucks in a day and all we had was a good fight between protesters and police.When Egypt goes bust we can kiss economic recovery good-bye.While US is not really concerned about it(how do you manage to be always this lucky),Europe has a boatload of problems.This could the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.

As I understand it, the Egyptian Abrams aren't too bad. It's just that their Army's logistics are so bad that they can't move them up to the border with Israel, much less supply them. And they only train them enough to plink out Merkavas while on the defensive (probably for cost reasons).

Warrior
29 Jan 11,, 01:00
it sounds like it's game over for Mubarak, Keep your fingers crossed that if the regime is overthrown that the Muslim Brotherhood the most organized opposition group in Egypt don't take power. That would be bad,

If the muslim brotherhood doesn't take over someone like them (probably worse) will. Egypt is going to become yet another islamic paradise.

Warrior
29 Jan 11,, 01:05
As I understand it, the Egyptian Abrams aren't too bad. It's just that their Army's logistics are so bad that they can't move them up to the border with Israel, much less supply them. And they only train them enough to plink out Merkavas while on the defensive (probably for cost reasons).

Correct. The M1 Abrams is probably the best MBT on earth - as long as the logistical trail doesn't snap.

Ironduke
29 Jan 11,, 05:53
Could Tunisia be a tipping point for the Arab world?

We may be witnessing the start of a historic process in which developments in Tunisia ignite copycat protests or milder political challenges in other Arab countries.

Beirut

The dramatic developments in Tunisia in the past weeks that have seen street demonstrators send former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fleeing the country may prove to be the historic turning point that many in the Arab world have been predicting and anticipating for decades: the point at which disgruntled and often humiliated Arab citizens shed their fear and confront their leaders with demands for serious changes in how their countries are governed. The overthrow of Mr. Ben Ali by fearless citizens who were no longer intimidated by their police and Army is historically significant because of four main reasons:

1. This is the first example in the past generation of an Arab leader and his system being overthrown by popular action. It marks the end of acquiescence and docility among masses of ordinary Arab citizens who had remained remarkably complacent for decades in the face of the mounting power of Western-backed Arab security states and police- and army-based ruling regimes.

The “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia today may well go down in history as the Arab equivalent of the Solidarity movement in the Gdansk shipyard in Poland in 1980 that sparked wider protests that a decade later ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire. (In fairness, the Sudanese people probably should be credited with the first modern popular protest that changed their leadership, when protracted street demonstrations overthrew President Jaafar Nimeiry in 1985 – though that change did not last, and Sudan soon after found itself under military rule once again.)

2. The grievances that the Tunisian demonstrators have articulated in recent weeks – and in other forms in recent decades – are also widely shared across the entire Arab world, with the possible exception of some of the smaller wealthy countries in the Gulf. These complaints are about rising prices and job shortages, but also about the heavy-handed and condescending manner in which ruling Arab elites treat their citizens and deny them the most basic human rights of expression, credible representation, political participation, holding power accountable, and equitable access to the resources of the state and the opportunities of the free market.

3. The coverage of the fast-moving developments and the overthrow of the Ben Ali regime on Al Jazeera television brings this process into the living rooms of hundreds of millions of Arabs, many of whom have been captivated with the media coverage, making it likely that some of them will want to launch their own protests in other Arab countries. This marks the maturity of Al Jazeera television as a political force that can play a role in changing political orders, following its development in the past 15 years, since its birth in 1996 as largely an instrument of emotional expression and solidarity for Arab viewers who were frustrated by their inability to practice their full citizenship.

4. The most remarkable thing about what has just happened in Tunisia is how thin and narrow was the support structure that held Ben Ali’ s security-based regime in power. We learn once again that dictators maintained in place largely by soldiers and intelligence services crumble swiftly once their citizens show that they are not afraid to confront the soldiers and, indeed, risk death, beatings, and imprisonment when they do so. Once Ben Ali last week ordered his troops not to use live ammunition in confronting the demonstrators and pledged not to run for office again in 2014, his days in power were over. It only took another 24 hours for him to flee the country.

Ben Ali was one of the most glaring examples of the modern Arab autocrat who was also heavily supported by Western powers, and who ruthlessly put down protests and challenges by domestic forces, whether Islamists, secular democrats, leftists, or union members, jurists, journalists, and other specialized groups. Because his system of rule and the grievances that finally sparked his people to throw him out are both so common around the Arab world, we may be witnessing the start of a historic process in which developments in Tunisia ignite copycat protests or milder political challenges in other Arab countries. The Al Jazeera television effect will play a huge role here.

RELATED: The key players in Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution

A major unknown is what the overthrow of Ben Ali will mean for the interests and postures of major Western powers, such as France and the United States. This will depend largely on what kind of governance system replaces his security state, whether a democratic and pluralistic system takes root, and how much the Tunisian people will hold Western powers responsible for their decades of suffering in their dehumanized condition as politically castrated semi-citizens. We shall soon find out, because for the first time in half a century we may have an opportunity to learn what the citizens of Tunisia actually feel and want.
Source: Christian Science Monitor
Could Tunisia be a tipping point for the Arab world? - CSMonitor.com (http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2011/0118/Could-Tunisia-be-a-tipping-point-for-the-Arab-world/%28page%29/2)

kuku
29 Jan 11,, 07:27
To think of the sort of pent up anger that existed......

They say people remain somewhat satisfied till the economy is doing alright.

Double Edge
29 Jan 11,, 10:52
ThvBJMzmSZI

RoccoR
29 Jan 11,, 13:44
Skywatcher, et al,

I (sort-of) doubt it. Although there is a similar kind of discontent, Persians are a bit more tame.



Wonder if it will spread to Iran, given the mounting economic pressure there. The Basiji will get crushed by the Artesh if it ever comes to that.
(COMMENT)

The economics of the nation and the anti-Western notions of the Basiji would setback the economy even further. While I'm not sure that the Army is becoming pro-Western, they clearly appreciate the technology and what it can do for them.

I don't think there is going to be an uprising in Iran, and certainly, the use of the Army to crush any organizational discord would bring back memories of the Shah, and his approach.

The Iranians put the Power-that-Be in power. They have the right to determine their own destiny. They have chosen their path. Let's hope they make the best of it. But America should stay out of it (internal Iranian politics).

Most Respectfully,
R

Gabriella
29 Jan 11,, 14:02
US has no place in the situation in Egypt. It is good that Obama made a statement urging reason and supporting peaceful resolution and the last thing anyone wants to see is Egyptian people suffering violence, but that is as far as US involvement should go.

These people are standing up and trying to write change in order to better their country. That is to be applauded and supported and of course we hope Mubarak will stand down and be replaced by someone who will fulfill his country's needs.

Does US support democracy only if it benefits US? Iraq is to be democratic and Egypt, but let them vote in a Hamas mentality and will US still support democracy? :tongue:

Democratic is what the people of the country want and those people may not share the same aspirations as the West.

I hope the Muslim brotherhood don't acquire a foothold in Egypt by default and only because there is no other political body sufficiently organised to take on the role. That will have to be the choice of the Egyptian people. They will have to be prepared and vigilant, because history (of Iran) indicates a possibility that a religious group may be strong and organised enough to take control. But that is the business of Egypt, not US.

BadKharma
29 Jan 11,, 15:21
Does US support democracy only if it benefits US? Iraq is to be democratic and Egypt, but let them vote in a Hamas mentality and will US still support democracy? :tongue:
It depends upon whom you are referring to when you use a blanket statement such as....what the U.S. wants. Obviously on an open agenda they support stability that forwards the policies of those that have the most influence politically.

Democratic is what the people of the country want and those people may not share the same aspirations as the West.

Please take the time to review what a Democracy actually means. If the people truly want a democratic form of government and they have the means to institute that change it will occur. What any other country aspires to is irrelevant, there are numerous forms of democratic representation that started with the Greeks.

Skywatcher
29 Jan 11,, 19:16
The Iranians put the Power-that-Be in power. They have the right to determine their own destiny. They have chosen their path. Let's hope they make the best of it. But America should stay out of it (internal Iranian politics).

Most Respectfully,
R

There seemed to be pretty heavy electoral fraud back in 2009.

Double Edge
29 Jan 11,, 21:03
Support democracy.Fine in principle.But what about interests.For example,do you think you benefited personally from the Western control over the Arab regimes in the last 50 or so years?Hint,there is something about fuel price,the lil' thing that determines a good chunk of all prices,since all goods and services need a ride.

International law,accountability.Fine speech again.But how do you manage that? Strictly talking about Egypt,Suez is still the choke point it was for the 100+years.What are you going to do?Establish an embargo if they do something nasty?Fight them?Or just issue a piece of paper?
Not sure if this article answers your questions

Source (http://www.moneylife.in/article/4/13522.html)
How will the crisis in Egypt affect shipping?
January 29, 2011 11:31 AM |
Veeresh Malik

As both ends of the Suez Canal have come under curfew, how does the shipping industry cope?

Egypt boils over, after Tunisia did a few weeks ago, and the Suez Canal Authority is offline. Curfew has shut down both ends of the Suez Canal and reports coming in from shippie friends suggest that there are delays in transit. About 9% of the world's trade by volume and slightly more by value moves through this vital artery-and an unknown amount shrouded in the mystery that is international oil trade, moves through the SUMED (Suez-Med pipeline) which trans-ships crude oil from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea/Gulf of Suez end to Sidi Kerir near Alexandria-equally mysteriously converting "sanctioned" oil from Iran to legit oil at the other end, for example.

As commodity, forex and oil traders, as well as other people who make money out of information, move rapidly in the West-while the weekend closes most markets East of Suez-we get a ringside seat, once again, on how fortunes will be made and lost in shipping. Your humble correspondent managed a ringside seat the last time around, when Onassis, amongst others, made their fortunes, and seems the next cycle may soon be on us.

A successful shipping industry, as has been said before, is always ahead of the curve as far as the world's commercial outlook is concerned. The rest of the world may go through all sorts of geo-political changes, weather patterns may re-invent themselves, consumption and affluence as may go through seismic shifts impacting countries and continents-but ships have and will continue to keep the wheels of commerce turning. Face it; even wars cannot continue for long, without the shipping industry's support, no merchant ship will keep the wheels of battle turning. Your correspondent has spent time detained in a West European port decades ago for being on a ship that was ostensibly carrying illegal arms which by a stroke of a dictat by pen on paper magically became legitimate cargo and then was delivered to the opposing regime it was originally intended for. The owners were just concerned about the freight and we were concerned about our salaries-and being detained while being allowed ashore was not all that bad, either.

By definition, shipping has for centuries ensured its survival only if it has been able to read the tea-leaves correctly, ensuring that its ships and support elements that are in the correct place just slightly ahead of the correct time. And with the correct kind of ships.

To understand this better, we have to first look at the typical returns that shipping as an industry gives-and then ask ourselves the question-why do people get into shipping if the real monetary returns are so low? Historically, from a variety of sources as well as part of Maritime Economics 101, return on capital employed in shipping for the past century has seldom been over 6.5% to 7% per annum, and usually lingers in the 2%-3% per annum region. Most certainly in days before the last 100 years, the commercial return was often negative, though the other long-term benefits like colonial dominance, religious evangelism and military might were more than compensatory.

Things haven't really changed much in the present day and age. However, what has changed is that shipping also has to turn a minimum profit as well as be ready to pick up the surges, since financial backing from royalty, religions and regents, in uniforms, cassocks or robes cannot be declared as openly as it was a few centuries ago. So, through an intricate web of ownership modules, the real controlling forces behind shipping worldwide remains the same but will simply not be able to declare this. In addition, the primary reason of global dominance remains the main pillar for anybody wanting to get further in shipping. As well as aviation, for that matter, but there is a vital difference there.

And the vital difference has to do with the age-old unchallenged concept of "innocent passage" guaranteed to commercial merchant ships worldwide, regardless of what they are up to-as long as the origin and destination ports are fine with things, and as long as global conventions on the subject in times of declared wars or similar are not in force. In other words, technically speaking, you cannot touch an enemy nation's ship even if all she is doing is running "innocent passage" through your territorial waters. Israeli ships will be and have been able to sail through the Red Sea and thence through the Suez Canal, and the Russians could use the Panama Canal, even at the worst of times-and that is how it has always been.

But when natural events-or in some cases, "sponsored activities"-cause a breakdown in and around the choke-points, then all bets are off on "innocent passage" and Black Swans kick in. A choke point in shipping, incidentally, would be a narrow waterway that impacts international trade as ships funnel through them. Malacca Straits near Singapore, Suez Canal in Egypt, the Straits of Gibraltar between Europe and Africa, Straits of Hormuz at the entry to the Persian Gulf, and the Panama Canal-are vivid examples. It is no coincidence that the colonial powers and now the developed world have always tried to and have succeeded in controlling these "choke points". Except, lately, the Suez Canal.

This now, for the second time in recent history, appears ready to re-write the way shipping fortunes are likely to fluctuate.

Shipping fortunes are made-and lost-but mostly made, during periods known as "volatile" when risk, same meaning actually, is factored in. And over the last few months various indices and indexes that track shipping rates have been behaving very mysteriously, almost as if they were predicting in some ways that a choke point was due to boil over. Shipping circles, more than any other commercial interests, are watching and positioning assets very strategically-backed by national interests-and turbulent times lie ahead. Watch this space for more.

(Veeresh Malik started life as a seafarer, and in the course of a work life, founded and sold Pacific Shipping and Infonox Software, to return to his first love-writing).

Kevin Brown
30 Jan 11,, 01:25
Egypt unrest: Reports of lawlessness rise as police retreat

Lawlessness and other order related issues are increasing sharply outside of Cairo as prisoner's escape and people armed themselves against looters and gangs.

Egypt unrest: Reports of lawlessness rise as police retreat – This Just In - CNN.com Blogs (http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/29/latest-developments-in-egypt-protests/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1)

Persey
30 Jan 11,, 01:53
Should the US take any action if it becomes apparent that the Suez Canal will fall into the hands of the wrong people?

An unstable Suez Canal has the ability to have a global effect for the worst. The possible scenarios are very troubling.
For example, practically overnight, oil is now flirting with $100/barrel. This is only the beginning.

haim357
30 Jan 11,, 01:59
Egypt Unrest Driving Oil Prices Higher
Egypt Unrest Driving Oil Prices Higher | World Threats (http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=5646&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WorldThreats+%28World+Threats %29&utm_content=Twitter)

Tribes Threaten to Attack Suez Canal if Mubarak Does Not Step Down: Bedouin tribesman have reportedly take

Tribes Threaten to Attack Suez Canal if Mubarak Does Not Step Down | World Threats (http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=5659&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WorldThreats+%28World+Threats %29&utm_content=Twitter)

Mihais
30 Jan 11,, 21:35
Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html)

I don't know how much is real and how much is an attempt to save face.It can't be both a debacle and a brilliant scheme.

Warrior
03 Feb 11,, 03:26
Should the US take any action if it becomes apparent that the Suez Canal will fall into the hands of the wrong people?

An unstable Suez Canal has the ability to have a global effect for the worst. The possible scenarios are very troubling.
For example, practically overnight, oil is now flirting with $100/barrel. This is only the beginning.

The whole "blood for oil" thing will surely come back into play. Despite this protecting the supply of oil is something that will have to be done. The US and NATO could simply station troops around the Suez Canal in order to protect it while Egypt is transformed into either a failed state or an islamic republic.

Dreadnought
11 Feb 11,, 21:58
Ahmadinejad: Egyptian protests herald new Mideast

Feb 11, 2:54 PM (ET)

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's president declared Friday that Egypt's uprising shows a new Middle East is emerging that will doom Israel and break free of American "interference," even as Tehran clamps down harder on its own domestic opposition movement.

Iran has sought to portray the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt as a replay of its 1979 Islamic Revolution - whose anniversary was marked Friday by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech and state-organized rallies that included chants of support for Egypt's anti-government protests.

"Despite all the (West's) complicated and satanic designs ... a new Middle East is emerging without the Zionist regime and U.S. interference, a place where the arrogant powers will have no place," Ahmadinejad told a crowd filling Tehran's Azadi, or Freedom, Square.

Iran's state TV broadcast simultaneous live footage of the gathering with shots from Cairo's downtown Tahrir Square, the center of Egypt's protests since late January.


In Iran's calculation, the revolt against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak equals a blow to U.S. influence in the region and carries echoes of Iran's Islamic Revolution, which deposed the Western-allied monarchy and brought hard-line clerics to power.

Iran has been highly critical of Egypt's regime for its pro-U.S. policies and peace pact with Israel. For years, Iranian officials commissioned murals and other symbols to honor the gunman who killed Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981, two years after the peace accord with Israel took effect. Jordan also has a peace deal with Israel.

At the same time, Iranian authorities have been pushed into a corner by their support for the Egyptian uprising.

Iranian opposition groups have called for marches on Monday to express solidarity with Egypt's demonstrators. Iranian officials consider it a backdoor attempt to revive anti-government demonstrations and have warned of sharp crackdowns on efforts to return to the streets.

In Washington, White House national security spokesman Tommy Vietor denounced Iran's "hypocrisy" for claiming to support Egypt's people while smothering internal voices of dissent.

"For all of its empty talk about Egypt, the government of Iran should allow the Iranian people the same universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate in Tehran that the people are exercising in Cairo," he said. "Governments must respect the rights of their people and be responsive to their aspirations."

Tens of thousands marched down Tehran's main boulevard in state-organized rallies, some chanting in support of Egypt's anti-government protesters. Some Iranians set an effigy of Mubarak on fire while others mocked him with quips playing off his last name, which means "congratulations" in Farsi.

Ahmadinejad, speaking just hours before Mubarak resigned and transferred control of the country to the armed forces, urged Egyptian protesters to persevere.

"It's your right to be free. It's your right to exercise your will and sovereignty ... and choose the type of government and the rulers," said Ahmadinejad.

Last week, Egypt's foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, turned the tables on Iran. Aboul Gheit told reporters that Iranian officials should listen to the calls for reform from within their own country rather than "distracting the Iranian people's attention by hiding behind what is happening in Egypt."

"Iran's critical moment has not come yet, but we will watch that moment with great anticipation and interest," he said in Cairo.

Iran is applying increased pressure to keep opposition groups from seizing the moment with rallies linked to the Egyptian crisis.

Security forces have arrested several opposition activists, including aides to Iran's opposition leaders.

Authorities also placed Mahdi Karroubi, one of Iran's opposition leaders, under house arrest, posting security officers at his door in response to his calls for an Iranian opposition rally in support of the demonstrations in Egypt.

Karroubi's website, sahamnews.org, said security officials informed Karroubi that the restrictions would remain in place until after Feb. 14.

State Prosecutor Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi rejected an appeal for marches by Karroubi and fellow opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was declared the runner-up in June 2009 elections that critics say were rigged to give Ahmadinejad victory.

Hossein Hamedani, a senior commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard, said any attempt by the opposition to rally supporters on Feb. 14 would be crushed.

Mousavi's aide Saleh Noghrehkar and Sadroddin Beheshti, son of another Mousavi aide, Ali Reza Beheshti, were among those arrested, according to opposition website kaleme.com. The website said another opposition activist, Fariba Ebtehaj, a close aide to former reformist Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar, has also been arrested.

In London, the British Broadcasting Corp. said the signal for its Persian service was being jammed beginning late Thursday from a source in Iran. The BBC said it believes the action was an attempt to block its extensive coverage of the Egyptian protests.

(This version CORRECTS that marches are called for on Monday).)

*Imagine this two faced "asshat" cheering on Revolution in Egypt to the people as if supporting their Freedom of Choice while yet locking up the opposition in private....You know the opposition, the same ones that have taken to the streets in Eqypt because they want Rights to elect their leaders. You will note they also have been jamming transmissions of coverage of the protest in fear. Iran's theocracy must be quick to act against the opposition or "green party" before the very same happens to them. Lets see what happens when Assahola and dinnerjacket screw the people again come "Elections". I hope Iran erupts into protests the same as the Egyptians did. The Egyptians have set the standard and have achieved. Can the Iranians rid themselves of the very same?;)

tankie
12 Feb 11,, 10:35
Well well , shock horror , NOT


There are no Mubaraks on the Forbes list of the world's richest people, but there sure ought to be.

The mounting pressure from 18 days of historic protests finally drove Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak from office, after three decades as his nation's iron-fisted ruler. But over that time, Mubarak amassed a fortune that should finance a pretty comfortable retirement. The British Guardian newspaper cites Middle Eastern sources placing the wealth of Mubarak and his family at somewhere between $40 billion and $70 billion. That's a pretty good pension for government work. The world's richest man--Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim--is worth about $54 billion, by comparison. Bill Gates is close behind, with a net worth of about $53 billion.



Mubarak, of course, was a military man, not a businessman. But running a country with a suspended constitution for 30 years generates certain perks, and Mubarak was in a position to take a slice of virtually every significant business deal in the country, from development projects throughout the Nile basin to transit projects on the Suez Canal, which is a conduit for about 4 percent of the world's oil shipments. "There was no accountability, no need for transparency," says Prof. Amaney Jamal of Princeton University. "He was able to reach into the economic sphere and benefit from monopolies, bribery fees, red-tape fees, and nepotism. It was guaranteed profit."

Had the typical Egyptian enjoyed a morsel of that, Mubarak might still be in power. But Egypt, despite a cadre of well-educated young people, has struggled as an economic backwater. The nation's GDP per capita is just $6,200, according to the CIA--one-seventh what it is in the United States. That output ranks 136th in the world, even though Egypt ranks 16th in population. Mubarak had been working on a set of economic reforms, but they stalled during the global recession. The chronic lack of jobs and upward mobility was perhaps the biggest factor driving millions of enraged Egyptian youths into the streets, demanding change.



Estimates of Mubarak's wealth will probably be hard to verify, if not impossible (one reason dictators tend not to make it onto Forbes's annual list). His money is certainly not sitting in an Egyptian vault, waiting to be counted. And his delayed exit may have allowed Mubarak time to move money around and hide significant parts of his fortune. The Swiss government has said it is temporarily freezing any assets in Swiss banks that could be linked to Mubarak, an uncharacteristically aggressive move for the secretive banking nation. But that doesn't mean the money will ever be returned to the Egyptian people, and it may even find its way to Mubarak eventually. Other Mubarak funds are reportedly sitting in British banks, and Mubarak was no doubt wily enough to squire away some cash in unlikely places. Plus, an eventual exile deal could allow Mubarak to retain some of his wealth, no questions asked, as long as he and his family leave Egypt and make no further bids for power.

Epic skimming is a common privilege of Middle Eastern despots, and Mubarak and his two sons, Gamal and Alaa, were a bit less conspicuous than some of the Saudi princes and other Middle Eastern royals seen partying from time to time on the French Riviera or other hotspots. The family does reportedly own posh estates in London, New York, and Beverly Hills, plus a number of properties around the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheikh, where Mubarak reportedly went after resigning the presidency.

Mubarak also spread the wealth far and wide in Egyptian power circles--another Middle Eastern tradition--one reason he incurred the kind of loyalty that allowed him to rule for a remarkable three decades. Top Army officials were almost certainly on his payroll, which might help explain why the Army eased him out in the end--allowing a kind of in-country exile--instead of hounding him out of Egypt or imprisoning him once it was clear the tide had turned against him for good.


That money trail, in fact, will help determine whether Egypt becomes a more prosperous, democratic country, or continues to muddle along as an economic basket case. Even though he's out of power, Mubarak may still be able to influence the Army officials running the country, through the financial connections that made them all wealthy. And if not Mubarak, the next leader may be poised to start lining his pockets the same way Mubarak did. For Egypt to have a more effective, transparent economy, all of that will have to be cleaned up. There are probably a lot of people in Cairo who have been checking their bank balances lately

Dreadnought
15 Feb 11,, 16:46
This is what happens when you voice your opinion on governement in Iran. Yet dinnerjacket backs Egypts protestors that want change.

Pathetic to think this still happens in a civilized world.

Tehran, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian lawmakers denounced Monday's protests in Tehran and called for the execution of two opposition leaders for inciting the demonstrations, Iran's state-run Press TV reported Tuesday.

Members of the Iranian parliament issued fiery chants against opposition leaders and former presidential candidates Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein Moussavi.

Press TV aired video Tuesday of lawmakers chanting "Moussavi, Karrubi ... execute them."

Lawmakers also named former President Mohammad Khatami in some of the death chants.

The calls for the leaders' executions come after a particularly deadly month in Iran. At least 66 people were executed in January, according to Iranian media reports. Most of the executions were reportedly carried out for drug offenses, although at least three involved political prisoners, a U.N. statement said.

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay expressed alarm earlier this month over the number of executions.

Brutality and hypocrisy in Iran

Could Iran be the next Egypt?

Clinton denounces Iranian 'hypocrisy'

Iranian leaders have praised Egypt's revolution, but Monday when protesters in Iran took to the streets the government cracked down hard.

Last week, the Iranian government rounded up activists after Karrubi and Moussavi called for supporters to gather at Azadi Square -- the site of mass protests by Iran's opposition movement after the disputed 2009 presidential elections.

Despite the security crackdown, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in Tehran Monday.

Patrolling security forces battled protesters with batons and tear gas for much of the day.

The massive crowd was largely cleared from the city's streets by nightfall and the main squares near Tehran University remained free of police, security forces or protesters.

Dozens of demonstrators were detained during Monday's protests, while videos posted on the showed others had been chased and beaten.

One person was shot and killed during the protests, according to Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency. Several others were injured and listed in serious condition as a result of the shooting, which the Iranian government blamed on "agitators and seditionists."

The official Islamic Republic News Agency reported that nine security force members were among those injured in the protests, which the country's deputy police chief called "illegal gatherings ... directed from America, England and Israel."

"The hands of sedition leaders are drenched in blood and they should answer for these actions," Ahmad Reza Radan said, according to IRNA.

Video uploaded to YouTube showed throngs of demonstrators marching, burning posters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and in one instance beating a man who appeared to try to remove a poster from the hands of protesters.

Other YouTube video showed police in riot gear pursuing dozens of people running away from the baton-wielding officers.

Other videos show similar protests going on in other cities in Iran such as Shiraz and Isfahan.

CNN cannot independently verify the authenticity of the videos and witnesses declined to be named for fear of retribution.

Reporting from Iran proved extremely difficult Monday -- foreign journalists were denied visas, accredited journalists living in the country were restricted from covering the demonstrations and internet speeds slowed to a crawl in an apparent attempt to both limit protest organizing and restrict information from being transmitted out of the country.

Catherine Ashton, the European Union foreign policy chief, released a statement Tuesday urging Iranian officials to "fully respect and protect the rights of their citizens, including freedom of expression and the right to assemble peacefully."

Iranian lawmakers condemn protests; call for execution of leaders - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/15/iran.protests/index.html?eref=rss_world&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_world+%28RSS%3A+Wor ld%29)

Double Edge
15 Feb 11,, 18:23
Iranian leaders have praised Egypt's revolution, but Monday when protesters in Iran took to the streets the government cracked down hard.
I wondered why the administration in Iran praised Egypt's revolution. Your earlier article told me its because they saw it in the eyes of their earlier one.

So after praising people power they change their tune very quickly. Sounds like a bad case of 'Do as i say and not as i do'.

The day will come, when their 'legitimacy' ends in the eyes of the public. It won't stop there and will carry over to the forces who will refuse to do their duty and allow the ppl their say. Plot's different but the ending is always the same.

Mihais
19 Feb 11,, 17:48
All good things come to an end.apparently a 500 years world system went bust during our lifetime.Yiipeee :Dancing-Banana:



The toxic residue of colonialism - Opinion - Al Jazeera English (http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/2011213201140768988.html#disqus_thread)

The toxic residue of colonialism
The overt age of grand empires gave way to the age of covert imperial hegemony, but now the edifice is crumbling.



At least, overtly, there has been no talk from either Washington or Tel Aviv - the governments with most to lose as the Egyptian revolution unfolds - of military intervention. Such restraint is more expressive of geopolitical sanity than postcolonial morality, but still it enables some measure of change to take place that unsettles, temporarily at least, the established political order.

And yet, by means seen and unseen, external actors, especially the United States, with a distinct American blend of presumed imperial and paternal prerogatives are seeking to shape and limit the outcome of this extraordinary uprising of the Egyptian people, long held in subsidised bondage by the cruel and corrupt Mubarak dictatorship. What is the most defining feature of this American-led diplomacy-from-without is the seeming propriety of managing the turmoil, so that the regime survives and the demonstrators return to what is perversely being called "normalcy".

I find most astonishing that President Obama so openly claimed the authority to instruct the Mubarak regime about how it was supposed to respond to the revolutionary uprising. I am not surprised at the effort, and would be surprised by its absence - but merely by the lack of any sign of imperial shyness in a world order that is supposedly built around the legitimacy of self-determination, national sovereignty, and democracy.

And almost as surprising, is the failure of Mubarak to pretend in public that such interference in the guise of guidance is unacceptable - even if, behind closed doors, he listens submissively and acts accordingly. This geopolitical theatre performance of master and servant suggests the persistence of the colonial mentality on the part of both coloniser - and their national collaborators.

The only genuine post-colonial message would be one of deference: "Stand aside, and applaud." The great transformative struggles of the past century involved a series of challenges throughout the global south to get rid of the European colonial empires. But political independence did not bring an end to the more indirect, but still insidious, methods of control designed to protect economic and strategic interests. Such a dynamic meant reliance on political leaders that would sacrifice the wellbeing of their own people to serve the wishes of their unacknowledged former colonial masters, or their Western successors - the United States largely displacing France and the United Kingdom in the Middle East after the Suez crisis of 1956.

And these post-colonial servants of the West would be well-paid autocrats vested with virtual ownership rights in relation to the indigenous wealth of their country, provided they remained receptive to foreign capital. In this regard, the Mubarak regime was a poster child of post-colonial success.

Western liberal eyes were long accustomed not to notice the internal patterns of abuse that were integral to this foreign policy success - and if occasionally noticed by some intrepid journalist, who would then be ignored, or if necessary discredited as some sort of "leftist". And if this failed to deflect criticism, they would point out, usually with an accompanying condescending smile, that torture and the like came with Arab cultural territory - a reality that savvy outsiders adapted to without any discomfort.

Actually, in this instance, such practices were quite convenient, Egypt serving as one of the interrogation sites for the insidious practice of "extreme rendition", by which the CIA transports "terrorist suspects" to accommodating foreign countries that willingly provide torture tools and facilities. Is this what is meant by "a human rights presidency"? The irony should not be overlooked that President Obama's special envoy to the Mubarak government in the crisis was none other than Frank Wisner, an American with a most notable CIA lineage.

There should be clarity about the relationship between this kind of post-colonial state, serving US regional interests - oil, Israel, containment of Islam, avoidance of unwanted proliferation of nuclear weapons - in exchange for power, privilege, and wealth vested in a tiny corrupt national elite that sacrifices the wellbeing and dignity of the national populace in the process.

Such a structure in the post-colonial era, where national sovereignty and human rights infuse popular consciousness can only be maintained by erecting high barriers of fear, reinforced by state terror, designed to intimidate the populace from pursuing their goals and values. When these barriers are breached, as recently in Tunisia and Egypt, then the fragility of the oppressive regime glows in the dark.

The dictator either runs for the nearest exit, as did Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, or is dumped by his entourage and foreign friends so that the revolutionary challenge can be tricked into a premature accommodation. This latter process seemed to represent the one of latest maneuverings of the palace elite in Cairo and their backers in the White House. Only time will tell whether the furies of counterrevolution will win the day, possibly by gunfire and whip - and possibly through mollifying gestures of reform that become unfulfillable promises in due course if the old regime is not totally reconstructed.

Unfulfillable - because corruption and gross disparities of wealth amid mass impoverishment can only be sustained, post-Tahrir Square, through the reimposition of oppressive rule. And if it is not oppressive, then it will not be able for very long to withstand demands for rights, for social and economic justice, and due cause for solidarity with the Palestinian struggle.

Here is the crux of the ethical irony. Washington is respectful of the logic of self-determination, so long as it converges with the US grand strategy, and is oblivious to the will of the people whenever its expression is seen as posing a threat to the neoliberal overlords of the globalised world economy, or to strategic alignments that seem so dear to State Department or Pentagon planners.

As a result there is an inevitable to-ing and fro-ing as the United States tries to bob and weave, celebrating the advent of democracy in Egypt,complaining about the violence and torture of the tottering regime - while doing what it can to manage the process from outside, which means preventing genuine change, much less a democratic transformation of the Egyptian state. Anointing the main CIA contact and Mubarak loyalist, Omar Suleiman, to preside over the transition process on behalf of Egypt seems a thinly disguised plan to throw Mubarak to the crowd, while stabilising the regime he presided over for more than 30 years.

I would have expected more subtlety on the part of the geopolitical managers, but perhaps its absence is one more sign of imperial myopia that so often accompanies the decline of great empires.

It is notable that most protesters, when asked by the media about their reasons for risking death and violence by being in the Egyptian streets, responded with variations on the phrases: "We want our rights" or: "We want freedom and dignity". Of course, joblessness, poverty, food security - and anger at the corruption, abuses, and dynastic pretensions of the Mubarak regime offer an understandable infrastructure of rage that undoubtedly fuels the revolutionary fires. But it is "rights" and "dignity" that seem to float on the surface of this awakened political consciousness.

These ideas, to a large extent nurtured in the hothouse of Western consciousness and then innocently exported as a sign of good will, like "nationalism" a century earlier, might originally be intended only as public relations move, but over time, such ideas gave rise to the dreams of the oppressed and victimised - and when the unexpected historical moment finally arrived, burst into flame. I remember talking a decade or so ago to Indonesian radicals in Jakarta who talked of the extent to which their initial involvement in anti-colonial struggle was stimulated by what they had learned from their Dutch colonial teachers about the rise of nationalism as a political ideology in the West.

Ideas may be disseminated with conservative intent, but if they later become appropriated on behalf of the struggles of oppressed peoples, such ideas are reborn - and serve as the underpinnings of a new emancipatory politics. Nothing better illustrates this Hegelian journey than the idea of "self-determination", initially proclaimed by Woodrow Wilson after World War I. Wilson was a leader who sought above all to maintain order, believed in satisfying the aims of foreign investors and corporations, and had no complaints about the European colonial empires. For him, self-determination was merely a convenient means to arrange the permanent breakup of the Ottoman Empire through the formation of a series of ethnic states.

Little did Wilson imagine, despite warnings from his secretary of state, that self-determination could serve other gods - and become a powerful mobilising tool to overthrow colonial rule. In our time, human rights has followed a similarly winding path, sometimes being no more than a propaganda banner used to taunt enemies during the Cold War, sometimes as a convenient hedge against imperial identity - and sometimes as the foundation of revolutionary zeal, as seems to be the case in the unfinished and ongoing struggles for rights and dignity taking place throughout the Arab world in a variety of forms.

It is impossible to predict how this future will play out. There are too many forces at play in circumstances of radical uncertainty. In Egypt, for instance, it is widely believed that the army holds most of the cards, and that where it finally decides to put its weight will determine the outcome. But is such conventional wisdom not just one more sign that hard power realism dominates our imagination, and that historical agency belongs in the end to the generals and their weapons, and not to the people in the streets?

Of course, there is a blurring of pressures as the army could have been merely trying to go with the flow, siding with the winner once the outcome was clear. Is there any reason to rely on the wisdom, judgment, and good will of armies - not just in Egypt whose commanders owe their positions to Mubarak - but throughout the world?

In Iran the army did stand aside, and a revolutionary process transformed the Shah's edifice of corrupt and brutal governance. The people momentarily prevailed, only to have their extraordinary nonviolent victory snatched away in a subsequent counter-revolutionary move that substituted theocracy for democracy.

There are few instances of revolutionary victory, and in those few instances, it is rarer still to carry forward the revolutionary mission without disruption. The challenge is to sustain the revolution in the face of almost inevitable counter-revolutionary projects, some launched by those who were part of the earlier movement unified against the old order, but now determined to hijack the victory for its own ends. The complexities of the revolutionary moment require utmost vigilance on the part of those who view emancipation, justice, and democracy as their animating ideals, because there will be enemies who seek to seize power at the expense of humane politics.

One of the most impressive features of the Egyptian revolution up to this point has been the extraordinary ethos of nonviolence and solidarity exhibited by the massed demonstrators, even in the face of repeated bloody provocations of the baltagiyya dispatched by the regime. This ethos refused to be diverted by these provocations, and we can only hope against hope that the provocations will cease, and that counter-revolutionary tides will subside, sensing either the futility of assaulting history or imploding at long last from the build up of corrosive effects from a long embrace of an encompassing illegitimacy.

Richard Falk is Albert G. Milbank Professor Emeritus of International Law at Princeton University and Visiting Distinguished Professor in Global and International Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He has authored and edited numerous publications spanning a period of five decades, most recently editing the volume International Law and the Third World: Reshaping Justice (Routledge, 2008).

bigross86
19 Feb 11,, 17:57
I read that entire thing, I have not one iota of a clue of what he was trying to say...

Mihais
19 Feb 11,, 18:01
The end is a new start.The big question is what's next for the Europe and US?The new reality in the MidEast is the most momentous change in a long,long time.We will have to deal with a new center of power on the world stage. That in itself adds increased potential for instability(ignoring for the sake of argument the specifics of the region ).How we can deal with that?How can we transform and into what?Will that lead to a revolution in the West?Afterall,we have our own issues,which aren't insignificant.
Cheap talk about the triumph of democracy is not helping.I mean bussiness.

Mihais
19 Feb 11,, 18:06
I read that entire thing, I have not one iota of a clue of what he was trying to say...

Here's a clue.Go and study a bit of Wallerstein world systems theory.This bit may be a bit more,since he's quite large and ponderous.

Double Edge
19 Feb 11,, 21:38
The big question is what's next for the Europe and US?
Nothing much until the Arabs sort out their internal problems, optimistically, I give it a decade.


The new reality in the MidEast is the most momentous change in a long,long time.We will have to deal with a new center of power on the world stage.
Egypt leads the rest follow. But there is also Turkey & Saudi Arabia. These would be the big three. Will they always see eye to eye within ? Recent history has shown that arab brotherhood does not preclude backstabbing among their own when appropriate. I suppose this will happen less if more govts are elected by their people.

They'll have to try hard to present themselves as a power bloc, to the EU say. But how well does the EU handle differences. Lots of powerplays there as well. Arab block isn't going to be any better. There is not going to be another China or India here, there are too many divisions and countries to allow that to happen.


That in itself adds increased potential for instability(ignoring for the sake of argument the specifics of the region ).How we can deal with that?
Yes, if we think of Turkey & Brazil trying to broker a deal with Iran. Maybe not instability but increased interference. More consensus required among partners than could be had with pliant dictators.


How can we transform and into what?
Does former warsaw pact serve as any guide here, before they were pro-russia, now it is pro-us. Arabs will be somewhere in between. Maybe not as pro-us publically if still privately. If they want to go the democratic route then west will be more valuable than russia here.


Will that lead to a revolution in the West?Afterall,we have our own issues,which aren't insignificant.
Sorry, this bit i do not follow :confused:

What revolution in the west ? you already had that ages ago.

Mihais
20 Feb 11,, 07:39
Does former warsaw pact serve as any guide here, before they were pro-russia, now it is pro-us. Arabs will be somewhere in between. Maybe not as pro-us publically if still privately. If they want to go the democratic route then west will be more valuable than russia here.

It does not apply.East Europe is part of Europe just as much as the west.Besides,there is no Russia to choose,right now.There is however a China,that does not have the baggage of the WEst,as they prove it again and again in Africa.There is also an India to make bussiness with.



Sorry, this bit i do not follow :confused:

What revolution in the west ? you already had that ages ago.

We'll live and we'll see.How about the changing of status from being the best to one among the rest.That can and will have consequences.

Double Edge
20 Feb 11,, 10:39
There is however a China,that does not have the baggage of the WEst,as they prove it again and again in Africa.
China made inroads in those African countries because nobody else was paying attention to them. Will that success carry over to the Arab world where the US is present isn't clear.

This paper goes into some of the challenges faced by US, Russia & China

Middle east changing dynamics: strategic perspectives on power play of united states, russia & china (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers44/paper4336.html)

But the armies of those Arab countries have been used to American largesse for some time now. China & Russia offer additional alternatives to the Arab countries to hedge with. Democracy in the arab world might loosen US grip some.

This it would appear is the initial problem, that the countries choice who to align with strategically is no longer dictated by one person but is up to the people of those countries to decide. The US would have to craft policies to lobby the country as a whole or at the very least the dominating power grps within as would Russia & China. Who charms best, wins.

In the near term everything depends on how US, Russia & China play their cards in the Arab world BEFORE anybody there rises up and changes the picture as your previous two post would imply.

China would be the spoiler. Much to gain by increasing Chinese influence in the middle east to loosen US grip in her neighbourhood. The author of that paper feels the US would not be able to go it alone in the changing environment of the Middle East given existing obligations in the Far East and that Russia would be a better partner to co-opt here.

tankie
20 Feb 11,, 13:31
And the momentum is being kept up ,where/who next i wonder ,ivordinnerjacket maybe :confused:





Britain has called on Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi to cease violence against unarmed protesters amid reports that as many as 300 people may have been killed in increasingly bloody scenes in the north African country.

Foreign Secretary William Hague denounced the Libyan authorities' use of force as "dreadful and horrifying", and called on Gaddafi to respect the human rights of his people.

Mr Hague cited unverified reports of 200 or more protesters being killed by sniper fire, machine guns and even heavy artillery such as anti-aircraft missiles.

But an opposition figure based in Dubai, Mohammed Abdullah of the Libyan Salvation Front, quoted hospital officials in the city of Benghazi saying the death toll may have reached 300.

Mr Hague told Sky News's Murnaghan programme: "I think we have to increase the international pressure and condemnation. The United Kingdom condemns what the Libyan Government has been doing and how they have responded to these protests, and we look to other countries to do the same."

The Foreign Secretary stopped short of demanding the removal of Gaddafi from power, insisting that the UK Government does not express opinions on who should lead sovereign nations overseas.

"That will be resolved within Libya," he said. "We are not going to start saying who should go and who should come. These are sovereign nations.

"But what Colonel Gaddafi should be doing is respecting basic human rights and there is no sense of that in the dreadful response, the horrifying response, of the Libyan authorities to these protests."

Internet access has been shut down and the movements of foreign journalists are strictly controlled, so only patchy information has emerged from Libya about exactly what is happening.

But Mr Hague warned: "It is very important to make clear that the world is watching, despite the fact that TV cameras don't have access and we can't see on our screens the sort of pictures we have seen from Egypt and Bahrain.

tantalus
20 Feb 11,, 14:41
I welcome Hague's comments, but British actions in the last few years regarding Libya are suspect and should not be forgotten.

Britain's alliance with Libya turns sour as Gaddafi cracks down | World news | The Observer (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/19/britain-alliance-libya-gaddafi-crackdown)

tankie
20 Feb 11,, 15:03
I welcome Hague's comments, but British actions in the last few years regarding Libya are suspect and should not be forgotten.

Britain's alliance with Libya turns sour as Gaddafi cracks down | World news | The Observer (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/19/britain-alliance-libya-gaddafi-crackdown)


Well I for one say keep out of it , let them sort it for themselves and yes I remeber the sickening handshake with gaddafi from b'liar while remembering Locherbie and WPC Fletcher .

RoccoR
21 Feb 11,, 07:59
tankie, et al,

Sound advice!



Well I for one say keep out of it , let them sort it for themselves and yes I remeber the sickening handshake with gaddafi from b'liar while remembering Locherbie and WPC Fletcher .
(COMMENT)

Yes, over time, diplomacy does seem to comeback and haunt us.

BUT! Allowing a nation of people to choose their own destiny does seem a wiser course of action.

Most Respectfully,
R

danerobe
11 Mar 11,, 05:26
tankie, et al,

Sound advice!



(COMMENT)

Yes, over time, diplomacy does seem to comeback and haunt us.

BUT! Allowing a nation of people to choose their own destiny does seem a wiser course of action.

Most Respectfully,
R

I agree, diplomacy is never perfect and all too often we find out how truly awful some of our "friends" are. I think that allowing regional affairs to run their course is wise, but democratic countries should still stand up for pro-democracy movements as a whole.

tankie
10 Sep 11,, 11:34
Egypt has kicked off again attacking the Israeli embassy forcing the Ambassador to flee , will Israel retaliate ? watch this space .

dave lukins
10 Sep 11,, 12:58
Egypt has kicked off again attacking the Israeli embassy forcing the Ambassador to flee , will Israel retaliate ? watch this space .

Israel will tread carefully over this one but they won't let it pass unnoticed :rolleyes:

Mihais
10 Sep 11,, 13:47
I doubt any development in Egypt goes unnoticed.

So far so good,no surprises in Egypt.:rolleyes: Politics tend to become boring.So predictible.

Doktor
10 Sep 11,, 18:22
I doubt any development in Egypt goes unnoticed.

So far so good,no surprises in Egypt.:rolleyes: Politics tend to become boring.So predictible.

You are so old, that's why :)

Mihais
11 Sep 11,, 07:42
You could show that by starting to pay me respects .You could help me cross the street for example.:biggrin:

snapper
11 Sep 11,, 12:18
Israel will tread carefully over this one but they won't let it pass unnoticed :rolleyes:

Will for now, but will be remembered unless nice sweets are given by 'bad' Egyptians.

Versus
11 Sep 11,, 15:14
Egypt has kicked off again attacking the Israeli embassy forcing the Ambassador to flee , will Israel retaliate ? watch this space .

It is expected and it will only get worse.

tankie
11 Sep 11,, 19:05
It is expected and it will only get worse.

Lets hope your wrong mate , but sadly you may be very correct , instead of jaw jaw its:tank: :slap:

Double Edge
13 Sep 11,, 13:43
Egypt has kicked off again attacking the Israeli embassy forcing the Ambassador to flee , will Israel retaliate ? watch this space .
Israel won't and as i said earlier Egypt's got bigger problems to deal with right now than a conflict with Israel.

I see this move as a way to allow 'venting', yes they actually alowed ppl to go do this. Now they have a pretext to clamp down until the elections are held. So the objective clearly is inward looking as opposed to outward. No govt in Egypt still and peace & order has to be maintained until such time.

As for the last few comments, you guys already made up your mind what the future will be and are now using that to explain the current actions :tongue:

Versus
13 Sep 11,, 16:53
Israel won't and as i said earlier Egypt's got bigger problems to deal with right now than a conflict with Israel.

I see this move as a way to allow 'venting', yes they actually alowed ppl to go do this. Now they have a pretext to clamp down until the elections are held. So the objective clearly is inward looking as opposed to outward. No govt in Egypt still and peace & order has to be maintained until such time.

As for the last few comments, you guys already made up your mind what the future will be and are now using that to explain the current actions :tongue:

You have no idea, how much I would like that you are right and that these matters work like you think. I am not sarcastic or cynical, I would honestly love that these things work like you are saying and I would be the happiest man on the planet if I am wrong about these things. I am doing analysis and studies for the past 21 years and my results were always correct, always. It is a heavy burden to carry, being able to know but not being able to do anything about it. I pray that I am wrong on this one.

Double Edge
13 Sep 11,, 17:20
We will see :)

Right now its 50-50, you have equal chance of being correct or not.

Mihais
13 Sep 11,, 17:54
The idea of analysis is to give more than 50/50.Otherwise we could just toss coins.Right now the conditions on the ground don't leave much to the optimist in me. The pessimist ,however, has much to work with.

You may keep your hope,but I let mine at the gates of the Inferno:tongue:

Versus
13 Sep 11,, 19:56
We will see :)

Right now its 50-50, you have equal chance of being correct or not.

Actually it is 100%, but the game is still playing...:)

Doktor
20 Dec 11,, 06:32
Cairo institute burned during clashes (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/19/cairo-institute-burned-during-clashes)

Egyptian academics and volunteers scramble to save thousands of rare manuscripts that chart history of the nation

Volunteers in white lab coats, surgical gloves and masks stood on the back of a pickup truck along the banks of the Nile in Cairo, rummaging through stacks of rare 200-year-old manuscripts that were little more than charcoal debris.

The volunteers, ranging from academic experts to appalled citizens, have spent the past two days trying to salvage what's left of some 192,000 books, journals and writings, casualties of Egypt's latest bout of violence.

The Institute of Egypt, a research centre set up by Napoleon Bonaparte during France's invasion in the late 18th century, caught fire during clashes between protesters and Egypt's military over the weekend. It was home to a treasure trove of writings, most notably the handwritten 24-volume Description de l'Egypte, which began during the 1798-1801 French occupation. It includes 20 years of observations by more than 150 French scholars and scientists, was one of the most comprehensive descriptions of Egypt's monuments, its ancient civilisation and contemporary life at the time.

It is probably now burned beyond repair.

Its home, the two-storey historic institute near Tahrir Square, is now in danger of collapsing after the roof caved in.

"The burning of such a rich building means a large part of Egyptian history has ended," the director of the institute, Mohammed al-Sharbouni, said at the weekend.

Al-Sharbouni said most of the contents were destroyed in the fire that raged for more than 12 hours on Saturday. Firefighters flooded the building with water, adding to the damage.

During the clashes a day earlier, parts of the parliament and a transportation authority office caught fire, but those blazes were put out quickly.

The violence erupted in Cairo on Friday, when military forces guarding the cabinet building, near the institute, cracked down on a three-week-old sit-in to demand the country's ruling generals hand power to a civilian authority. At least 14 people have been killed.

Zein Abdel-Hady, who runs the country's main library, is leading the effort to try and save what's left of the charred manuscripts. "This is equal to the burning of Galileo's books," Abdel-Hady said, referring to the Italian scientist whose work proposing that the earth revolved around the sun was believed to have been burned in protest in the 17th century.

Below Abdel-Hady's office, dozens of people sifted through the mounds of debris brought to the library. A man in a surgical coat carried a pile of burned paper with his arms carefully spread, as if cradling a baby.

The rescuers used newspapers to cover some partially burned books. Bulky machines vacuum-packed delicate paper.

At least 16 truckloads, with around 50,000 manuscripts, some damaged beyond repair, have been moved from the pavements outside the US Embassy and the American University in Cairo, both near the burned institute, to the main library, Abdel-Hady said.

He told the Associated Press that there is no way of knowing what has been lost for good at this stage, but the material was worth tens of millions of dollars.

"I haven't slept for two days, and I cried a lot yesterday. I do not like to see a book burned," he said. "The whole of Egypt is crying."

He said that there are four other handwritten copies of the Description of Egypt. The French body of work has also been digitised and is available online.

There may have been a map of Egypt and Ethiopia, dated in 1753, that was destroyed in the fire. However, another original copy of the map is in Egypt's national library, he said. The gutted institute also housed 16th-century letters and manuscripts that were bound and shelved like books.

The most accessible inventory at the moment for what was housed in the institute is in a book kept in the US Library of Congress, according to William Kopycki, a regional field director with the library. He said the body of work that was destroyed was essential for researchers of Egyptian history, Arabic studies and Egyptology.

"It's a loss of a very important institute that many scholars have visited," he said during a meeting with Abdel-Hady to evaluate the level of destruction.

What remains inside the historic building near the site of the clashes are piles of burned furniture, twisted metal and crumbled walls. A double human chain of protesters surrounded the building on Monday.

At a news conference on Monday, a general from the country's ruling military council said an investigation was under way to find who set the building on fire. State television aired images of men in plainclothes burning the building and dancing around the fire on Saturday afternoon. Protesters also took advantage of the fire, using the institute's grounds to hurl firebombs and rocks at soldiers on top of surrounding buildings.

A military colonel, helping out with rescue efforts at the library, said about 10 soldiers have been tasked with assisting the volunteers.

Volunteer Ahmed el-Bindari said the military shoulders the brunt of responsibility for using its roof as a position to attack protesters before the fire erupted.

"When the government wants to protect something, they do," el-Bindari said. "Try to reach the interior ministry or defence ministry buildings. You won't be able to."

troung
20 Dec 11,, 06:54
No beaches, attacks on Christians, elected Islamists, burned down these historical works - oh yes progress.

bigross86
20 Dec 11,, 08:38
Modern day Library of Alexandria... Bloody shame.

Heinrich Heine said it almost 200 years ago: "That was but a prelude; where they burn books, they will ultimately burn people also."

Mihais
20 Dec 11,, 08:41
The Egyptians and the burning of libraries have a history spanning 2000 years.:frown:

Considering who did this,we saw it coming.If one will make a foundation in order to take in a safe place all the books and artefacts I'll give money to it.Culture is universal,just as idiot destroyers are.:mad:

Doktor
20 Dec 11,, 08:43
The Egyptians and the burning of libraries have a history spanning 2000 years.:frown:

Considering who did this,we saw it coming.If one will make a foundation in order to take in a safe place all the books and artefacts I'll give money to it.Culture is universal,just as idiot destroyers are.:mad:
Second that. Too bad you can't put buildings in a safe place, too.

Bigfella
20 Dec 11,, 09:06
Second that. Too bad you can't put buildings in a safe place, too.

It is unclear from the article whether the building was deliberately burned because of what it was or whether it was simply 'collateral damage' resulting from violent protests (I note other buildings burned too). I note that some have already decided which it was. (bet Arthur Harris burned more books than every Islamic thug in history).

Doktor
20 Dec 11,, 09:10
It is unclear from the article whether the building was deliberately burned because of wha tit was or whether it was simply 'collateral damage' resulting from violent protests (I note other buildings burned too). I note that some have already decided which it was. (bet Arthur Harris burned more books than every Islamic thug in history).

Why you bring the religion to this? Nazis burned their books before Harris ;)

Mihais
20 Dec 11,, 09:41
I'm quite sure Harris burned a lot of books.He was bombing afteral,l one of the most cultivated nations in the world.I'm sure a lot of books burned at Coventry as well.The problem starts when one does it deliberately.Monte Cassino is one case.

I'm pretty sure everyone and his brother knew what was in that building and I'm quite sure it was written on it what it was,just in case someone from outside Cairo comes to riot and rampage in the midle of the city.

Mehmed the 2nd struck down an idiot soldier busy carving down Hagia Sofia.It's not that all Islam is hell bent in destroying culture.But a good part of Islam is just as stupid as the rest of mankind in doing it. Simple as that.

troung
20 Dec 11,, 15:51
Heinrich Heine said it almost 200 years ago: "That was but a prelude; where they burn books, they will ultimately burn people also."

They were trying to burn people, fucking books got in the way.


Considering who did this,we saw it coming.If one will make a foundation in order to take in a safe place all the books and artefacts I'll give money to it.Culture is universal,just as idiot destroyers are.

No the books belong to a society/culture who had nothing to do with making them

Mihais
20 Dec 11,, 19:47
One of the reasons culture is universal.Many monuments had nothing to do with the current inhabitants,yet they don't burn to the ground.
I've no problem fighting for a political idea,even if it's fighting the Crusades again(just as an extreme example).I cannot conceive destroying what even the ancestors of my enemies created wrt culture.I have the utmost disdain for those who think otherwise.Yeah,I'm intolerant and ''prejudiced''.

Parihaka
20 Dec 11,, 20:03
Well, it's been a personal crusade of mine for years from the time I did some work on the Burton Brothers work in Dunedin.
Most Museum Curators simply WILL NOT digitise the material they hold so when the usual suspects destroy it the best that can be retrieved is reference works.
Even without rioters/nutters/acts of god material and objects can be lost or destroyed anyway.
If there's material irretrievably lost from this the blame lies squarely with the curators.

notorious_eagle
14 Aug 13,, 16:49
Egypt's presidency has declared a state of emergency after scores of people were killed when security forces stormed protest camps in Cairo.

The camps had been occupied by supporters of former president Mohammed Morsi, who was deposed in early July.

Security forces say 95 people have been killed. But the Muslim Brotherhood, which backed the protests, says hundreds have died.

The state of emergency is scheduled to last for a month.

A curfew will be in place in 11 provinces, including Cairo, starting at 19:00 (17:00 GMT).

The measure was taken because the "security and order of the nation face danger due to deliberate sabotage, and attacks on public and private buildings and the loss of life by extremist groups," the presidency said in a statement.

Shortly after dawn on Wednesday morning, armoured bulldozers moved deep into the main protest camp outside the eastern Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque.

Officials say the other protest camp, at Nahda Square, has been cleared.

Reporters described wounded protesters being treated next to the dead in makeshift field hospitals.

The 17-year-old daughter of leading Muslim Brotherhood figure Mohamed el-Beltagy was among the dead, reports say. Asmaa el-Beltagy was shot in the back and chest, her brother said.

A cameraman working for Sky News, Mick Deane, has also been killed - as has a reporter for Gulf News, Habiba Ahmed Abd Elaziz.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the violence. He urged "all Egyptians to concentrate their efforts on promoting genuinely inclusive reconciliation", his spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

There are also reports of unrest elsewhere in Egypt.

Seventeen people have died in clashes in the province of Fayoum, south of Cairo, Reuters news agency says.
At least five people have been killed in the province of Suez, according to the health ministry.
Clashes have also been reported in the northern provinces of Alexandria and Beheira, and the central provinces of Assiut and Menya
Hundreds are said to have gathered outside the governor's office in Aswan in the south
State news agency Mena says three churches were attacked, one in the city of Sohag with a large number of Coptic Christian residents
The interior ministry said a mopping-up operation in the streets surrounding Nahda Square was under way.

Pro-Morsi activists were chased into the nearby zoo and Cairo University, Nile TV said.

It is still unclear how many casualties were caught up in the two Cairo operations. Figures differ widely and have been impossible to verify independently.

BBC Arabic's Khaled Ezzelarab says he counted at least 50 bodies at the makeshift hospitals around Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque. He said the injured were too numerous to count.

Ikhwanonline, the website of the Muslim Brotherhood, says that in total more than 800 were killed.

The health ministry has issued an official death toll of 95.

The health ministry has issued an official death toll of 95.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote

Police snipers are above the nearby school buildings, shooting any resident hurrying to the square”

"Security forces used only tear gas canisters to disperse the protesters though it was heavily fired at by armed elements from inside the two protest camps, causing the death of an officer and a conscript and the injury of four policemen and two conscripts," the ministry said in a statement.

The government has meanwhile congratulated the security forces on their operation to clear the camps.

In a televised statement, a government spokesman praised their "self-restraint" and spoke of the "smaller number" of injuries among protesters.

The government would decisively confront attempts to attack state buildings and police stations, he said.


Supporters of Mr Morsi have been occupying Nahda Square and the Rabaa al-Adawiya site since he was ousted on 3 July. They want him reinstated.

Large plumes of smoke rose over parts of the city as the operation to clear the camps began, with tear gas canisters fired and helicopters hovering above.

Muslim Brotherhood TV called for people to send cars to the sit-ins to take casualties to hospital.

Several Muslim Brotherhood figures have been arrested, security sources said.

The protesters had been expecting the clearance operation, says BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen.

It is a heavy-handed operation and is a consequence of the current "winner takes all" climate, he adds, with both sides sticking to their positions and pushing as hard as they can.


Call for restraint

The European Union called the reports of deaths and injuries "extremely worrying".

A statement issued on behalf of EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "We reiterate that violence won't lead to any solution and we urge the Egyptian authorities to proceed with utmost restraint."

Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the result of the camp clearances as a massacre, accused other countries of paving the way for the violence by staying silent, and called for the UN and the Arab League to act immediately.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague also condemned the use of force.

More than 250 people have been killed in clashes with the security forces in the six weeks since Mr Morsi's overthrow.

Speaking to the BBC on Monday, Egypt's Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said the sit-ins could not continue "endlessly".

He said the authorities had been trying to seek an agreement through dialogue.

"If the police force take their procedures, they will do that in accordance with the law by court order and in accordance to the basic norms on which these things are done."

BBC News - Egypt declares national emergency (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23700663)

Tragic :frown:

tankie
14 Aug 13,, 16:56
Ahhh yes the religion of peace is killing in gr8 numbers ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, AGAIN .

zraver
15 Aug 13,, 02:45
Ahhh yes the religion of peace is killing in gr8 numbers ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, AGAIN .

I'm surprised I tell you. Who'd have thought that the group that inspired the modern jihadi movement would show their true colors..... shocking.

JAD_333
15 Aug 13,, 03:02
Opened a new thread for the latest developments in Egypt.

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/middle-east-north-africa/64339-hundreds-die-egyptian-forces-attack-islamist-protesters.html