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Korea might go to war (again)

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  • Korea might go to war (again)

    as you all know both Korean nations are getting really tense after the warning shots the KPA gave South Korea and of course killed a couple of civilians and 2 US marines. Which means that US is definitely involved

    Thoughts and opinions are welcome
    Can you please pass da pork and flate?

  • #2
    First of all, I SERIOUSLY doubt it will come to war; even NORK isn't stupid enough to start a war without some serious provocation. They are also aware, as the recent Wiki leaks pointed out, that China wouldn't necessarily take NORK's side; the "leaked" diplomatic cables indicate that China is getting tired of bailing out Little Brother, and war would definitely be the breaking point. NORK would have to do this one alone, and they know that, so I doubt they'll do anything to really start a conflict. The Wikileaks even went so far (if you can read into them) as to say that China might actually tolerate a united Korea, as long as they were united under the ROK gov't.
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

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    • #3
      point takened, thanks man, im just trying to get feedback from this
      Can you please pass da pork and flate?

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Durian10 View Post
        point takened, thanks man, im just trying to get feedback from this
        First off, I do not appreciate false info, no US Marines were killed. In fact, no American personnel was involved. 2nd. Do not act the authority when clearly you have absolutely zero clue coming into a forum where I HAVE PERSONALLY PUBLISHED CHINESE PLANS TO INVADE NORTH KOREA.

        YOU CLEARLY ARE NOT AN AUTHORITY. DO NOT PRETEND TO BE ONE!
        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 01 Dec 10,, 06:40.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Stitch View Post
          First of all, I SERIOUSLY doubt it will come to war; even NORK isn't stupid enough to start a war without some serious provocation. They are also aware, as the recent Wiki leaks pointed out, that China wouldn't necessarily take NORK's side; the "leaked" diplomatic cables indicate that China is getting tired of bailing out Little Brother, and war would definitely be the breaking point. NORK would have to do this one alone, and they know that, so I doubt they'll do anything to really start a conflict. The Wikileaks even went so far (if you can read into them) as to say that China might actually tolerate a united Korea, as long as they were united under the ROK gov't.
          Actually we can use your post as a jumping off point to a new and better thread.

          I've been meaning to put forth these questions to the good people of WAB but didn't know just how to ask.

          Let's say through the idiocy of little Kim or through some horrible accident, a full scale war envelopes Korea.

          Most people here are of the consensus that the south will eventually win after a horrible price is paid.

          What then?

          The United Korea will probably want some sort of American presence, at least at the beginning, if for nothing else just as a deterent to their neighbors in the North.

          China will want the American troops as far away from their border as possible but, in the end, what can they do but saber rattle.

          I know there are no correct answers to these so I'm asking for your educated guesses.....

          What will China's reaction be during and post war?

          How will the war eventually end?

          How long will it take to build up the Korean economy again?

          Will tensions rise between America and China (due to American troops so close to China's borders)?

          Will China agree to an agreement which keeps american troops below the 38th Parallel? Will the U.S.?

          How will Japan react?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
            Most people here are of the consensus that the south will eventually win after a horrible price is paid.
            I'm actually of the opinion that once the reserves are mobilized, the South will steamrolled the North. However, after this current engagement where the North could not even get their target priorities right or they can't aim ( a freaking parking lot?), the force density the South occupies in the DMZ means the North is simply going to die.
            Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
            The United Korea will probably want some sort of American presence, at least at the beginning, if for nothing else just as a deterent to their neighbors in the North.
            All China said is that she does not want an American presence north of the 38th and good luck if Seoul can actually invite anyone to join her north of the 38th. Seoul is certainly not going to invite China down from her border.

            Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
            China will want the American troops as far away from their border as possible but, in the end, what can they do but saber rattle.
            Some propaganda here. Both Beijing and Washington agrees that North Korea is a Korean problem. Translation: there won't be either Chinese nor American troops in North Korea. Clarification: Beijing to Washington: please don't send any troops to North Korea and we won't have to. Translation: let Seoul clean up that mess.

            I think you've got the answers to the rest.

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            • #7
              Two things.

              1) You think there is a "wink wink, nudge nudge" deal between China and U.S.to keep US/Chinese troops out of North Korea if the unspeakble happens?

              2) How will that translate to during the war? Will American troops not pursue into the North and just let the Koreans handle it or is China expecting Americans to pursue North with the clear understanding to they are to withdraw below the 38th Parallel once the war is over?

              Sorry for the dumb questions.....

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              • #8
                Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
                1) You think there is a "wink wink, nudge nudge" deal between China and U.S.to keep US/Chinese troops out of North Korea if the unspeakble happens?
                Translation: If you go in, I have to go in but if you don't go in, then I don't have to go in ... and I rather not go in.

                Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
                2) How will that translate to during the war? Will American troops not pursue into the North and just let the Koreans handle it or is China expecting Americans to pursue North with the clear understanding to they are to withdraw below the 38th Parallel once the war is over?

                Sorry for the dumb questions.....
                The South Koreans are actually best situated to invade the north,

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                • #9
                  Sorry, Col.

                  Should've read this thread:
                  http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/int...complex-3.html
                  before asking questions. :/

                  Thankyou.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    Translation: If you go in, I have to go in but if you don't go in, then I don't have to go in ... and I rather not go in.

                    The South Koreans are actually best situated to invade the north,
                    Then it seems that the best course for US would be to arm SK to the teeth and train SK fully with all of its strategic and tactical knowledge but the problem I see for US is that US runs the chance of losing influence with SK once SK has subsumed NK into its soveriegnty because it will lose the buffer zone between itself and China and the mere fact of being neighbors with China means that China will inevitably try to influence or control the events in unified Korea. Do you honestly think that China will leave Korea alone after SK subjugages NK? If you do, then I got a bridge in Oklahoma to sell to you.

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                    • #11
                      But that'll probably instigate the United Korea to invite a bigger US presence in Korea, will it not?

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                      • #12
                        we wish amerca do not enter in this war
                        and we wish no war in all world
                        Iam Arab man

                        ^_*

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by YellowFever View Post

                          What then?
                          Nork civvies flee north into China, the PLA moves South on "humanitarian" grounds to keep said Nork civvies in place and insure a place at the peace talks.

                          The United Korea will probably want some sort of American presence, at least at the beginning, if for nothing else just as a deterent to their neighbors in the North.
                          Very limited with a new SOFA to heavily restrict US activity and block US access to the Yellow Sea from Korea in trade for a Chinese withdraw to the border and Chinese money to help rebuild.

                          China will want the American troops as far away from their border as possible but, in the end, what can they do but saber rattle.
                          see above

                          What will China's reaction be during and post war?
                          during- to invade post to use the territory gained to bargain for her own strategic advantage.

                          How will the war eventually end?
                          With the ROKA and PLAN meeting at the Korean equivalent of the Elbe River.

                          How long will it take to build up the Korean economy again?
                          20 years given Germany's example and that was without war damage to Seoul. Add in the war damage and generational stunting of the North's population it might be closer to 30-40 years without massive Chinese investment.

                          Will tensions rise between America and China (due to American troops so close to China's borders)?
                          Not long term.

                          Will China agree to an agreement which keeps american troops below the 38th Parallel? Will the U.S.?
                          Yes, at least for awhile and more willingly if Korea restricts US access to the Yellow Sea. Ultimately China wants to drive the US back to Japan so that the US focus is no longer divided and the natural animosity between Korea and Japan serves as a wedge issue to break the RoK free from the US orbit.

                          How will Japan react?
                          With Joy since long term it makes any continuing US presence in Asia dependent on Japan. The war would promote Japan from most important Asian ally to only Asian ally (sooner or later).

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by zraver View Post
                            With Joy since long term it makes any continuing US presence in Asia dependent on Japan. The war would promote Japan from most important Asian ally to only Asian ally (sooner or later).
                            Now we're getting deeply into politics but you really think Japan will be so joyful?

                            I mean having some leverage with the US as the sole Asian ally will be to Japan's advantage but that'll mean Korea will be deeper into China's orbit.

                            And Korea is strategically well place to be like a Chinese dagger into Japan's heart. Or am I missing something?

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                            • #15
                              South Korea and Japan are rivals economically speaking. If South Korea is busy trying to desperatly build up the north and feed the people there (a task that is not comparably to the German Reunification in term of cost and difficulty), Japan (among others) is free to fill in the gaps left by its SK competitions on the asian & world markets. South Korea's economy will be weakend for decades.

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