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  • Iran begins new military maneuvers in Persian Gulf

    The Associated Press: Iran begins new military maneuvers in Persian Gulf

    Iran begins new military maneuvers in Persian Gulf

    By ALI AKBAR DAREINI (AP)

    TEHRAN, Iran — Iran on Wednesday kicked off new war games and military maneuvers in the strategic Persian Gulf waters, the country's second military show of force in less than a month.

    The exercises reflect Iran's desire to flex its military muscle at a time of a deepening standoff with the West over Tehran's controversial nuclear program. The war games, held annually since 2006, also act as a warning, should U.S. or Israel consider a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

    The new maneuvers, dubbed "Velayat 89," are to last eight days in the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman and cover about 97,000 square miles (250,000 square kilometers) of Iranian territorial waters, reported state TV.

    In late April, Iran's Revolutionary Guard held five-day maneuvers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's leaders have in the past said that if attacked, the country would respond by shutting off the Strait of Hormuz, the mouth of the Gulf through which around 40 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies passes, as well as by attacking American bases in the Gulf.

    Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari was quoted by the TV as saying Wednesday that Iran's Navy, backed by the air force, will "show its might" in the latest exercise.

    The exercise comes as the Obama administration is lobbying hard at the U.N. Security Council for tougher punishment of Iran over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can produce either a warhead or fuel for a nuclear reactor.

    The West accuses Iran of seeking to build a weapon, a claim Tehran denies, insisting its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, such as power generation.

    The exercise also comes against the backdrop of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's remarks on the sidelines of a nuclear treaty conference at U.N. headquarters in New York dismissing the threat of further economic penalties for Iran.

    Ahmadinejad has recently been lobbying China and Russia, the two among the Security Council's five veto-wielding permanent members that have been reluctant to endorse further sanctions against Iran, and also rotating members such as Uganda and Brazil.

    As the sole head of state to attend the once-every-five-years Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty gathering, Ahmadinejad argued in New York that any new sanctions would mean President Barack Obama has given up on his campaign to engage Iran diplomatically.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

  • #2
    Diplomatic Engagement

    "Ahmadinejad argued in New York that any new sanctions would mean President Barack Obama has given up on his campaign to engage Iran diplomatically."

    Sorry to say but such was a forelorn and still-born desire in any case. All of this has been entirely predictable to this point. Further, that predictability was as clear to many in 2003 as now. All that's functionally transpired in the interim is Iran's ability to harden and generate redundant systems while improving its defenses against our demonstrated capabilities.

    Had we smacked them hard in 2003 concomitant with OIF we'd have nipped three problems with one stone-baathism, an Iranian-directed surreptitious Iraqi intervention and Iran's nuclear program.

    Then again, we couldn't accurately foresee an Iraqi insurgency so how were we to foresee this continuing ulcer?
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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    • #3
      We all know there is no way to engage Iran diplomatically. It is not the fault of the US or its partners at the UN. Its Irans ignorrance pure and simple. And thats exactly why many have no problem helping them timeslide back to throwing stones and fighting with sticks.;)

      They can have wargames as much as they want, they only thing it will achieve is propaghanda purposes. They wont own the Straights if it comes to game time. Its doubtfull their so called "Navy" will even make it out of Port before getting crushed.

      Its apparent by all of Irans weaseling that they realize they are slowly but surely being cornered over the Nuclear issue and any point they raise beyond that is a moot one.
      Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
        Its apparent by all of Irans weaseling that they realize they are slowly but surely being cornered over the Nuclear issue and any point they raise beyond that is a moot one.
        Please explain to me how they are being cornered? They are playing successive US administrations and they are almost at the point that they will be able to present a credible nuclear threat. Their rocket program is far ahead that of the North Koreans and unlike the Norks who blow up dud nukes for public consumption the Iranians will soon have not just a couple of weapons but R&D, production facilities and a serious delivery vehicle manufacturing ability.

        Its getting VERY close to the 'too late' mark where attacking them will be a non option due to their nuclear capability and honestly i don't see the west doing a damn thing about it rather than talk. Further to that the west is actually muzzling Israel from doing anything about it too.

        Playing the political game well has always been a Persian hallmark, what I've been seeing recently hasn't illustrated to me that anything has changed.
        The best part of repentance is the sin

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        • #5
          Originally posted by chakos View Post
          Please explain to me how they are being cornered? They are playing successive US administrations and they are almost at the point that they will be able to present a credible nuclear threat.
          +1.

          The Persians have figured it out that Obama likes his Noble Peas Price. And at the very least, it would take a strong leader to pitch another war to an already war-weary America. It's going to cost a lot more in blood & treasure to clean up this mess.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by chakos View Post
            Please explain to me how they are being cornered? They are playing successive US administrations and they are almost at the point that they will be able to present a credible nuclear threat. Their rocket program is far ahead that of the North Koreans and unlike the Norks who blow up dud nukes for public consumption the Iranians will soon have not just a couple of weapons but R&D, production facilities and a serious delivery vehicle manufacturing ability.

            Its getting VERY close to the 'too late' mark where attacking them will be a non option due to their nuclear capability and honestly i don't see the west doing a damn thing about it rather than talk. Further to that the west is actually muzzling Israel from doing anything about it too.

            Playing the political game well has always been a Persian hallmark, what I've been seeing recently hasn't illustrated to me that anything has changed.
            *In few words, they wouldnt be courting Brazil to intervene if they were not running out of options. She's not getting support from the usuals such as China and Russia. Even France that has vested interests walked out on dinnerjacket at the UN because they see his attitude and know what it will bring. They are about out of options as far as negociating anything about their weapons programs or fuel rod swaps and Israel is busy watching time tick away. If Obama doesn't make things diffacult for them via a 4th round of sanctions, then Israel may pull a unilateral move and deal with the fallout.

            Do you think the Iranian regime wants to take their chances with Israel pulling such a move? Most countries wouldnt blame her for acting on her own accord given the threats and supplying of weapons to Israels close neighbors albeit enemies.
            Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

            Comment


            • #7
              Again your listening to what they say rather than watching what they are doing.

              They are asking Brazil to intervene, they are playing the innocent party, they are looking like the victim... THEY ARE BUILDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

              It means nothing what they say, they know that as long as they keep giving weak excuses and prolonging the affair it gives them more time to a)develop a working warhead if they don't already have one and b)mate it to a rocket and c)build even more redundancy into their facilities.

              Its too late for Israel to do anything, that time past when the Iranians started multiplying their facilities. I doubt there is a single weak link any more. Without US support (as opposed to the US turning a blind eye) they lack the ability to do more than take out a couple of facilities.

              Count their tankers, how many aircraft do you think they could keep airborne with 13 tankers? 10? 20? How many targets does that allow you to hit when you have to worry about Wild Weasel missiles, Escorts, Escorts for the tankers, EW, etc?

              Israel can take out two or three dispersed targets on its own and thats doing it very tight. Realistically it can probably sorty enough aircraft and keep them up that far from home to do a PROPER job on one defended target. Say their navy hits a couple more with cruise missiles and thats If they dont have the S300/400/IHawk/Iranian S300 clone defences up and running in which case the cruise missiles would be mince unless the AF flies Wild Weasel first (more aircraft).

              Short of the USN launching a multi carrier alpha strike with heavy USAF support i really cant see enough facilities being taken out in one hit (or even a series of hits) to put a stop to their program.

              They are VERY close to winning this.
              The best part of repentance is the sin

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
                Do you think the Iranian regime wants to take their chances with Israel pulling such a move? Most countries wouldnt blame her for acting on her own accord
                Actually, most countries would even the US, especially when their economies start to crumble due to high oil-prices.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I don't remember who it was, but a while back someone posted a chart of Iran's global oil sales. Iran doesn't sell oil to the US, anyway...

                  I wonder how much the situation would resemble Osirak in 1981. Everyone knew that the reactor had to be bombed, and Israel was lambasted for it, but I'm fairly certain that was the mandatory condemnation. I think that under the surface a lot of countries were glad that Israel bombed the shite out of Osirak, and probably would be happy if Israel did it again. Unfortunately, I too believe that it's getting a bit too late to take out Iran's nuclear program, especially with one strike, like the Osirak mission.
                  Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

                  Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bigross86 View Post
                    I don't remember who it was, but a while back someone posted a chart of Iran's global oil sales. Iran doesn't sell oil to the US, anyway...
                    I'm not talking about Iran's oil-exports, but its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates 40 percent of the global seaborne oil trade as well as all of the gulf’s liquefied natural gas exports.

                    Stratfor calls this Iran's "real nuclear option"

                    One of Iran’s most important deterrents to an attack on its territory is its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital choke point in the shipping of crude oil from the Persian Gulf into the open sea. Even if largely unsuccessful, the attempt could play havoc with global oil prices just as the world begins to recover from the global economic crisis. But could Iran really pull it off? STRATFOR takes a look.

                    Source
                    and probably would be happy if Israel did it again.
                    Believe me they would definetly not be happy about it.
                    Last edited by Hitman817; 17 May 10,, 15:43.

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                    • #11
                      Weve been through this on other threads, Iran does not posess the military capability to close the Straits and maintain it. They dont want their ass kicked which is exactly what will happen. The mouse that barks.;)
                      Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
                        Weve been through this on other threads, Iran does not posess the military capability to close the Straits and maintain it. They dont want their ass kicked which is exactly what will happen. The mouse that barks.;)
                        They can close the straits and bomb the hell (via BM) out of the gulf oil terminals. The question is for how long. We've begun beefing up our in theater ABM assets to protect the shipping terminals because Iran now has two different options to cut the Gulf oil trade. Blockade and destruction, combined it is a very serious threat.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by zraver View Post
                          They can close the straits and bomb the hell (via BM) out of the gulf oil terminals. The question is for how long. We've begun beefing up our in theater ABM assets to protect the shipping terminals because Iran now has two different options to cut the Gulf oil trade. Blockade and destruction, combined it is a very serious threat.
                          If the US had the cohones to back it up, they could stop Iran from destroying any allied shipping/oil platforms in the gulf.. and could make sure Iran didn't have the ability to do much more than make a fire with a couple sticks for a long time.. the question is.. does the US have those cohones with the current administration and congress.. I say NO..

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by zraver View Post
                            They can close the straits and bomb the hell (via BM) out of the gulf oil terminals. The question is for how long. We've begun beefing up our in theater ABM assets to protect the shipping terminals because Iran now has two different options to cut the Gulf oil trade. Blockade and destruction, combined it is a very serious threat.
                            Z ask yourself this...at what cost? If they do that, they just opened themselves up for the hammer being dropped on them by NATO and others, their oil production (import/export) their military facilities, nuclear facilities and infastructure are toast. And dont think for a moment anybody would care what Israel decides to slip in there as well. Yeah they might force the price of oil up for months, but doubtfull they will have any themselves and would end up militarily impitant for how many years afterwards.

                            For them its loose/loose.;)
                            Last edited by Dreadnought; 18 May 10,, 00:14.
                            Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
                              For them its loose/loose.;)
                              That is the danger, since its lose/lose they have no reason not to go balls out from the start. They could be the most honorable foe, hold closest to the LOAC and use limited force and the destruction we are going to visit on them is the same as if they were total ratters. They built up a capability that leaves us no choice and so they have nothing to lose by trying to wreck the global economy.

                              Then you add in the the hidden iman and end times/end of the world beliefs some of the guards have and there is even more reason for Iran to go full out.

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