Tea party comes up short in early primaries

[troung]

Tea party comes up short in early primaries
By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent 1 hr 50 mins ago


WASHINGTON – Mark the first round down, shakily, for Republican incumbents and party establishment favorites.

With one race in Ohio yet to be settled, tea party-backed challengers and other outsiders were shut out in competitive House and Senate primaries across three states on Tuesday, the busiest night so far in an election season of optimism for Republicans.

While some of Tuesday night's Republican primary winners struggled to prevail — former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats' comeback bid advanced with 40 percent of the vote in a five-way race — the results renewed a debate about the clout of the insurgents in the remaining primaries and on elections this fall.

Primaries aside, Republicans cheered Wednesday when Wisconsin Rep. David Obey, a leading liberal and chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, announced he would retire. GOP officials said the departure opens the way for them to win a seat he has held since 1969, and claimed the veteran lawmaker had been pushed to the exits by the prospect of possible defeat this fall.

Obey was characteristically blunt in reply: "I've won 25 elections. Does anybody think I don't know how to win another one?"

Six months before the midterm elections, and with the country trying to shake off the effects of a deep recession, polls show a disaffected electorate, angry at incumbents and highly skeptical of government's ability to solve their problems. As a result, even Democrats concede Republicans are in line to make gains this fall, when 36 seats in the Senate and all 435 in the House are on the ballot.

"The big question is whether the tea party is a tempest in a teapot. Do they have the organizational capabilities to compete with the Republicans?" said John Feehery, who advised former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and is a Republican strategist.

"They're not organized and it's unclear to me whether they are going to be a force that is going to challenge the more establishment Republicans in primaries," he added.

In the Senate, both parties seemed eager to begin the fall campaign.

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who chairs the Republican campaign committee, sought to shift the focus from Coats' modest triumph over primary rivals. The race in the fall "will not be about Dan Coats," he said. "It will be about Brad Ellsworth, who voted for a health care program that 65 percent of Hoosiers are against."

Ellsworth will be on the ballot as Coats' Democratic rival.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced the arrival of the fall campaign with a video that lumped Coats with former Bush administration official Rob Portman, who won the Republican Senate primary in Ohio and will run against Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher.

"President Obama and Democrats in Congress are fighting for comprehensive financial reform. Meanwhile, what did the Republicans do? They nominated a Wall Street lobbyist and one of the biggest Wall Street cheerleaders they could find," the video says.

Republicans recruited Coats, a former lobbyist, to run months ago, when they were looking for a challenger to Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh later announced his retirement.

Coats' nearest primary rival, Marlin Stutzman, was a tea party favorite who also gained support from a political organization run by South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.

"Senator DeMint is a conservative Republican senator. I'm a conservative Republican senator and proud of it," Cornyn said. "But I also recognize that people as conservative as I am may not be elected in some parts of the country," he added.

DeMint also has taken sides in a competitive primary in Kentucky, as well as other states.

In the House, Republican leaders were quick to praise the voters who backed the losers in Tuesday's primaries, and said they would work for their support in the fall.

"They were a big factor last night in Ohio and Indiana, and they helped swell our vote" totals, said Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, who chairs the National Republican Campaign Committee. Turnout was modest in most cases, although it appeared Republicans generally had less of a fall-off than Democrats.

"We got the candidates that we wanted," Sessions said. For the voters who backed losing challengers, he said Republicans "will continue to offer a message that is well within their wheelhouse," including calls to rein in federal spending.

Democrats viewed the same primary results differently.

"One message was loud and clear last night. The DC establishment Republican candidates faced intense opposition," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who heads the Democratic campaign committee.

"They may have emerged but they emerged by the skin of their teeth and in many cases with lots of battle scars."

Among those Van Hollen cited were Jim Renacci, backed by party officials as their favorite to challenge first-term Democratic Rep. John Boccieri of Ohio in the fall. He won with 49 percent of the vote in a four-way race.

Another Republican embraced by Republican leaders, Bob Gibbs, is ahead of his leading rival, Fred Dailey, by 160 votes, and a recount is expected. The winner will take on Ohio Democratic Rep. Zach Space, whom Republican officials long ago identified as a target for the fall.

Among incumbents fending off challengers, Republican Reps. Dan Burton and Mark Souder of Indiana; Howard Coble of North Carolina, and Democratic Rep. Larry Kissel of North Carolina won renomination.

Sessions predicted Republicans would take away 10 Democratic-held seats this fall in the three states.

"I don't know where he learned his math," said Van Hollen.
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[Julie]

I don't think the Tea Party is after one party or the other. Tea Partiers are looking to take out incumbents in general, whether they be Republican or Democrat.

[Julie]

Dem Turnout Falls Off A Cliff

By Reid Wilson

Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.

In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.

Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in '06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced serious primary opponents.

Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters -- or 18% of all registered Dem voters -- who turned out in '04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.

And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in '02 and the 304K who turned out in '06.

By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr's uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in '04. Turnout in House races in IN rose 14.6% from '06, fueled by the competitive Senate primary, which attracted 550K voters. And 728K voters cast ballots for a GOP Sec/State nominee in Ohio, the highest-ranking statewide election with a primary; in '06, just 444K voters cast ballots in that race.

Top Dem strategists have promised to spend millions to get their voters to cast ballots, and polls show they will need to succeed in order to avoid an electoral beating. The latest weekly Gallup tracking survey shows 43% of GOPers are "very enthusiastic" about voting, while just 33% of Dems feel the same way.

But some Dems say they don't worry about low turnout in primaries at the moment.

"We had historic increases in registration in 2008 and we are working to turn out those first time voters again this fall, and we'll do so united behind our nominees -- which can't be said of Republicans," DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan said. "The real story in looking at motivation of the base from yesterday was a deeply divided Republican party that nominated deeply flawed candidates that overwhelming majorities of their own voters couldn't support."

Sevugan pointed to ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), who won just 39% of the IN primary vote, and to Rep. Dan Burton (R), who held off 2 strong challengers to win renomination with just 30% of the vote, as evidence that the GOP coalition is fractured.

But Dems face problems in reuniting their base, too. Asked recently how much she would campaign for Fisher if she lost the primary, Brunner made a zero with her hands. NC Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) will face off again in a June 22 runoff, sapping more of their already-limited treasuries.

About the only state the party doesn't have internal conflict at the moment is in IN, where Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) retirement means the party will hand-pick Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) later this month. But in search of party harmony, there is peril: Bayh's departure gives the GOP an excellent shot at winning the seat, and Ellsworth's candidacy means his own GOP-leaning district is up for grabs too.

Efforts are already underway to improve Dem turnout this fall. The DNC has promised $30M to be spent on GOTV operations run through Organizing for America, Pres. Obama's political wing. The group will emphasize voter turnout and persuasion, as well as personal interaction that DNC chair Tim Kaine recently told reporters is more effective than TV advertising.

Dem Turnout Falls Off A Cliff - Hotline On Call

[BenRoethig]

I'm not surprised. Like the progressives on the left, its an extreme group out of touch with the people.

[bonehead]

We will see who turns out for the all important vote in November.

[troung]

Bennett appeals to GOP to let him keep Senate seat
By BROCK VERGAKIS, Associated Press Writer Brock Vergakis, Associated Press Writer Thu May 6, 10:40 am ET

SALT LAKE CITY – Sen. Bob Bennett abandoned Washington this week, spending his days in Utah pleading with Republicans until he was hoarse to let him keep his job — in Washington.

The three-term conservative is in serious danger of losing at a GOP state convention Saturday, tripped up by anti-incumbent sentiment and Utah's quirky nomination system. His only hope is to win over enough delegates to force the party to hold a primary in June.

He has until Saturday morning to pitch some 3,500 die-hard GOP convention delegates, who tend to be more conservative than Utah Republicans overall. Polls show Bennett trailing in third place.

So within days of the convention, Bennett told Republican leader Mitch McConnell not to count on his vote for financial regulation or anything else in the Senate unless necessary. He has spent nearly every waking hour talking to delegates — at breakfast joints, at city parks over pizza, by telephone.

"In the convention, it is the most retail of retail politics," Bennett said. "People expect to see you one-on-one."

Bennett is up against seven rivals, many of whom contend that the Republican — who has the backing of the National Rifle Association — isn't conservative enough for Utah. This election year, conservative Republicans have clamored for ideological purity from their candidates and shunned those who failed to meet the test, like moderate Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida.

Bennett also has had to deal with the anti-tax Club for Growth, which has spent more than $100,000 trying to defeat him, angry about his vote for the 2008 bank bailout.

While Bennett was spending the week trying to save his job with Utah Republicans, the Club for Growth chastised him Wednesday for missing votes in Washington.

Elected in 1992, Bennett promised to serve only two terms. In recent days, he has said he made a mistake when he made that promise. He's running ads highlighting his seniority and arguing that he's the only one who could look out for Utah's interests, especially since he's a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee.

Still, his years in Washington remain an issue with some Republicans.

Jared Christensen, a 54-year-old delegate from Kearns, near Salt Lake City, said he's been pleased with the job Bennett's done but after listening to him for nearly two hours on Tuesday, he's still not sure whether he can support him. Christensen said after 18 years in office, it may be time for the 76-year-old Bennett to go.

"That's a long time. It's not like he's 21 or 41," said Christensen, who probably will see Bennett five times by Saturday. "Yet, he is very vibrant, he's very intelligent, he's very articulate."

Bennett has enlisted his family and friends. Son Jim is managing his campaign and acting as spokesman, while wife Joyce prods him at delegate events to defend his effort to steer federal dollars to the state to the benefit of programs like the Ares rocket and thousands of jobs.

At the Salt Palace Convention Center on Saturday, 2008 presidential candidate Mitt Romney will make the case for Bennett in his introduction. Sen. Orrin Hatch also will speak.

A candidate needs 60 percent of the vote at the convention to become the party's candidate. If no one reaches that threshold, then the top two vote-getters move on to a June 22 primary. Bennett's only real chance of survival is to win over enough delegates in the next few days to overtake one of the front-runners, attorney Mike Lee or businessman Tim Bridgewater, and force a primary.

Under Utah's system, all but the top three candidates are eliminated after the first round of voting. Delegates then vote a second time, and they're free to vote for someone different each time as they narrow the field.

It is here Bennett is at most risk of losing if delegates who originally supported another candidate don't make him their second choice.

"Second ballot preference statements are always squishy because they are made away from the convention, away from the emotions, away from hearing the speeches," he said. "I don't know whether we're going to come out of the second ballot or not, but I think we're clearly in second place and the dynamic of the convention makes it very possible for me to eliminate Bridgewater and be on the final ballot with Lee."

Bennett has been unable to persuade delegate Spencer Haymond, but there is a glimmer of hope. Haymond said if his first choice, conservative activist Cherilyn Eagar, doesn't make it past the first round, Bennett will get his vote on the second one.

"I see other candidates positioning themselves for a career, and he's got a built-in time clock," Haymond said.

Complicating Bennett's prospects is a convention resolution criticizing a health care bill that he sponsored with Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved

[Doomarias]

The good thing about the tea party is that they want a mile of change, and in so wanting they may force at least a few hundred feet out of republicans.

[Julie]

I'm not surprised. Like the progressives on the left, its an extreme group out of touch with the people.

WRONG. And I can relate to it:

Moms to the Barricades
MAY 8, 2010

By MICHAEL GRAHAM

If Momma ain't happy, ain't nobody happy. And if you've been to a tea party, you know Momma ain't happy at all.

Forget "angry white men." In the male-dominated world of conservative politics, the tea party stands out as a movement of energized and organized women. In particular, moms.

Moms like Sarah Palin, of course, who's been described as the "Momma Bear" of the tea party movement. But more important are the thousands of women at the state and local level who created this political phenomenon.

Moms like Christen Varley, the suburban mother of four who organized the successful tea party rally on Boston Common last month. Moms like Karen Miner Herd, who calls herself "one of the founding mothers" of the tea party movement in Virginia.

Her favorite tea party sign? "Menopause Was Change Enough for Me."

In fact, a recent Quinnipiac poll of voters found a majority of tea party supporters—55%—are women. To put that in perspective, only 48% of women voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And just two years ago, President Obama won 56% of the female vote.

As part of a recent book project I've been asking women around the country: Why are you angry? What is it about the tea party movement that energizes busy working moms to get even busier organizing protests?

Many women gave the most obvious answer: "If we waited around for you men to do it, it would never get done."

When I asked Christen Varley, the Boston tea party leader, she said it's because moms tend to be "the CEO's of our households. We do the shopping, bill paying, budgeting, etc. We know less money means less freedom. Maybe if the president and Congress did the grocery shopping, they'd know why we're mad."

Dana Loesch, talk host and co-founder of the St. Louis tea party, believes the tea party movement is the modern conservative version of "the personal is political."

"Motherhood itself has become a political act," says Ms. Loesch. "And the tea parties are an extension of our need as moms to protect the future for our children."

Keli Carender isn't a mom, but the Seattle-area 30-something is the mother of the tea party movement. She held the very first rally of the modern tea party era to protest the so-called stimulus package, days before Rick Santelli's infamous CNBC rant.

The tea party idea "just clicked in the minds of conservative women," she says. "Most women I know are thinking 'I'm taking care of my family and the government's taking care of it's business—right?' Then they see what the government is really doing and they saw 'Whoa, whoa! I guess I've gotta take care of their mess, too.'"

Michael Graham: Moms to the Barricades - WSJ.com