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  • Recession ended in July

    NBER hasn't announced the official end date, but several regional Fed banks are dating the end to July 2009.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    CARPE DIEM: Update on Recession Ending in July 2009



    CARPE DIEM: St. Louis Fed Graphs: Recession Ended July 2009?

    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

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    • #3
      My last two years' Profit & Loss Statements of my business say otherwise. ;) My spreadsheets look like a roller-coaster ride this past year.

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      • #4
        Statistics

        Our local economy doesn't seem to have recovered either. Business is slow for most people. I do know someone who said things were picking up him in Seattle. Maybe it's a regional thing?

        On the theme of statistics, I have a friend who rants about government employees making more money than the private sector. I point out to him that every person that WE know who works for the government make less, sometimes considerably less. Hmmm. Is it that they are comparing specific fields or skills? Maybe they're comparing regional (private) wages to national (govt) wages?
        Reddite igitur quae sunt Caesaris Caesari et quae sunt Dei Deo
        (Render therefore unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's and unto God the things which are God's)

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        • #5
          Oh, that is just AWESOME. Happy days are here again.

          Funny, though; I thought the end of a recession meant that economic activity and outlook were getting BETTER. I really should 'a' paid more attention in ECON 101.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
            Oh, that is just AWESOME. Happy days are here again.

            Funny, though; I thought the end of a recession meant that economic activity and outlook were getting BETTER. I really should 'a' paid more attention in ECON 101.
            They aren't? I was under the impression they are. (Not sarcastic, this subject is not my forte).

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Julie View Post
              My last two years' Profit & Loss Statements of my business say otherwise. ;) My spreadsheets look like a roller-coaster ride this past year.
              I took the biggest part of the beating the second half of last year. I guess the recession was already over.

              I've settled into a new "normal", about 3/4 of the previous level. If it stays like this, I'll be alright, but I had to stop paying myself a salary the beginning of the year to protect my cash flow. :(
              "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

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              • #8
                Originally posted by ASparr View Post
                They aren't? I was under the impression they are. (Not sarcastic, this subject is not my forte).
                Better than at the START of the recession.

                Not hardly. We are still a-stinkin' up the joint, economy-wise.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
                  Better than at the START of the recession.

                  Not hardly. We are still a-stinkin' up the joint, economy-wise.
                  Well, I think that's what they mean, isn't it? We're still down 35-40% or so from just before the recession, but we've returned to positive growth and all the economic indicators (LIBOR, consumer confidence index, manufacturing report, jobs report, TED spread, DOW/NASDAQ/SP500/Hang Seng/Dax/FTSE et al) are looking better and now in positive territory.

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                  • #10
                    Employment isn't going to get to the pre-2009 level for several years. We've shed 8.5 million jobs.

                    Last month's 162,000 included about 50,000 temporary census workers, those aren't permanent.

                    We need 150,000 a month just to stay even with population growth and people entering the job market. Even at a radical recovery rate of 300,000 a month, it will take 5 years to get back to where we started.

                    And no way in hell we're going to have 5 years of 300,000 new jobs a month.

                    It's going to take 8-9 years for main street to recover.
                    "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by highsea View Post
                      I took the biggest part of the beating the second half of last year. I guess the recession was already over.

                      I've settled into a new "normal", about 3/4 of the previous level. If it stays like this, I'll be alright, but I had to stop paying myself a salary the beginning of the year to protect my cash flow. :(
                      Exactly the same with me here. My 16 year old daughter got a part-time job recently which helps alot cuz now she can pay for her phone, hair cuts, eating out with friends, that was costing me $100.00/week.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Julie View Post
                        Exactly the same with me here. My 16 year old daughter got a part-time job recently which helps alot cuz now she can pay for her phone, hair cuts, eating out with friends, that was costing me $100.00/week.
                        Wow, I don't think I spend $100 a week on myself.
                        "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                          Wow, I don't think I spend $100 a week on myself.
                          Ha ! 16 year old girls are expensive, and I'm soooo glad she got a job. :)

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ASparr View Post
                            They aren't? I was under the impression they are. (Not sarcastic, this subject is not my forte).

                            And you would be correct.

                            Fortunately there are some folks out there who actually have passed ECON 101 & probably more. I suspect the author of this piece &/or its editors (and certainly quite a few readers) have.

                            The big problem is that profitability will recover more quickly than employment, and government revenue depends more on taxing income than consumption or profits.

                            The recession is probably over in the sort of technical sense that econoists measure such things, but it won't feel that way to a lot of people for a while.

                            State finances

                            A ray of sunshine

                            Corporate taxes are starting to fill the coffers again


                            Apr 8th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist print edition

                            FEW financial writers have been able to resist the comparison between the sun-drenched, debt-ridden states of southern Europe and those of the American continent. Where Greece is now going, California—and others—may follow. In 2009 state governments wrestled with budget gaps totalling $110 billion; California’s alone was responsible for over a third of that sum. States fought to close more than $150 billion in budget shortfalls for the current fiscal year, only to watch as an additional $38 billion in midyear gaps appeared. More billion-dollar holes loom in 2011.

                            Big budget holes have opened because of deep economic downturns: revenues tumbled while payments to the unemployed increased. They are also a symptom of dysfunctional political systems. In California, for example, budget politics are dominated by the interests of large public-sector unions. Meanwhile, the federal government has been willing to play financial brinkmanship with struggling state governments. Senate cuts to state aid in the 2009 stimulus bill deprived California of over $6 billion in assistance included in the House version of the measure.

                            But many states may in fact be facing an increasingly manageable crisis. A return to growth has helped. By late last year, roughly half of American states seemed to have escaped recession. Rising output slowed the decline of state revenues and by the end of 2009 these had grown, year-on-year, for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 (see chart). Most of the country’s largest states are forecasting revenue increases from the current fiscal year to fiscal 2011.

                            These increases have come, in part, from tax increases adopted to close budget gaps. Still, the recent turnaround has been strong enough to make some budget forecasts too pessimistic. In the first few months of 2010, revenues have come in ahead of projections in a number of cash-strapped states. In March Virginia revised up its revenue projections for the year by $82.5m. In New York, revenues for the current fiscal year to February have come in $129m ahead of expectations. And to the end of February California’s revenues were about $1.94 billion, or nearly 4%, above the budget forecast.

                            At first sight, these revenue increases seem unlikely. Recovering output has not much reduced the burden of unemployment, and individual tax payments have failed to provide much of a boost. It is true that personal income-tax revenues have beaten budget forecasts in New York and California; but it is corporate-tax revenues that have most frequently exceeded projections. In California, corporate taxes are 6.9% above expectations for fiscal 2010; in February alone, they improved on forecasts by nearly 90%. Arizona’s January revenues were $14m more than expected, thanks to corporate-tax receipts that were nearly $24m more than budgeted for. Corporate-tax revenues in Virginia have risen by nearly 32% this year, compared with a forecast increase of 19%.

                            An increased tax take from the corporate sector is the flip side of the reduced income- and consumption-tax revenues that stem from a jobless recovery. Labour productivity roared ahead in 2009 as companies found ways to meet demand with fewer workers. Rapid productivity gains and tepid wage growth have meant relatively fat profits for the corporate sector. And that has swollen the public coffers.

                            The slight easing of the budget picture will reduce the number of difficult choices facing state governments. Budgets have largely been balanced by cuts to the heart of state spending: health programmes, schools and transport. But corporate-tax revenues are a relatively small part of the budget picture, accounting for just 4% of state and local revenues last year. For now, big cheques from big companies will help to spare some additional pain, but states might happily forgo the added revenues in exchange for a little more hiring.
                            State finances: A ray of sunshine | The Economist
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                            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                              Wow, I don't think I spend $100 a week on myself.
                              No kids huh!

                              Have you got a steep learning curve in front of you! :))

                              Cheers.

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