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View Full Version : The real story- endgame in the West. Can Iran shutdown EU & US ?



Herc the Merc
16 Mar 10,, 02:11
The reality is EU & US/UK are in a very fragile state (the only outposts of Western civilization that stand today with strong foundations are Australia, Canada, Germany and maybe France). THe question is how long can the West tolerate high oil prices? - say $300/barrel or more. Not very long I suspect. Iran can shutdown the Persian gulf for a couple of months and that would ruin the precarious Western economies. Iran also has great support in Iraq. Thats a lot of oil under Ayatollahs thumb. Their proxies Hizbullah can raise hell in Israel. All in all the Ayatollahs have enuff cards to continue their rule unfettered.

If were a betting man I would wager the West falls before Iran.

eocoolj
16 Mar 10,, 02:47
If were a betting man I would wager the West falls before Iran.


I'll give you 10 to 1 odds, how much you looking to bet?

[edit] make that 100 to 1 odds

Herc the Merc
16 Mar 10,, 02:56
I'll give you 10 to 1 odds, how much you looking to bet?

You wil find out by the end of the year. The Greek.Euro crisis has given a temporary lifeline to the US dollar. It will suddenly crash and the US will have a deeper crisis than Iran in internal affairs. Imagine, no high school, no police, no public hospitals. Buddy you do not even have the concept of the mess we are in. Also one of the key reasons US does not attack is Iran is very aggressive on Iraq's border. Contrary to what most think Iran is actively pinging its Iraq border to threaten the US that it could face a broader war. The Ayatollahs still hold the cards. Ur bet, I accept. I am all in. The Ayatollahs will survive the coming tsunami in the West.

Officer of Engineers
16 Mar 10,, 03:04
You actually think that the Ayatollahs can win a price war against the Saudis?

Never mind the fact that Canada supplies more oil to the US than Tehran could ever dreamed of.

Oil hit below $80 today because the demand is not there. Iran can chump all they want. When no one is buying, they ain't getting no monies. Period.

eocoolj
16 Mar 10,, 03:06
is it too late to make it 1000 to 1?

Officer of Engineers
16 Mar 10,, 03:11
Iran can shutdown the Persian gulf for a couple of monthsHow?


and that would ruin the precarious Western economies.There are other oil states besides the Middle East.


Iran also has great support in Iraq.1) They've fought a war. 2) Iraqi Generals are looking East for their next war.


Thats a lot of oil under Ayatollahs thumb.Did you happen to forget that there is an American army in Iraq and an American AF within 24 hours.


Their proxies Hizbullah can raise hell in Israel.And when the Israelis take off their gloves?


All in all the Ayatollahs have enuff cards to continue their rule unfettered.Despite the fact that you are all wrong, they do not have the one card that they need - the tolerance of the Iranian people for their continued rule.

Herc the Merc
16 Mar 10,, 03:52
Some points as to why I think Iran will not be a pushover and why Iran could seriously hurt the WEst (and itself in the process). On the issue if the US or Israel came in with full force its obvious that Iran would be a sheet of glass in 15minutes, but practically speaking in the constraints of international political reallity the Ayatollahs have enough cards to throw us into a tizzy of a tailspin.

Here are the points:-
1) Iraq went to war with Iran under a Sunni regime. The majority of the population is Shia (same sect a Iran). They are in power now and hold more sway than the Ba'athist Sunnis. Here is a good read-

Ali Husaini Sistani is the Grand Ayatollah of Iraq. He was born in Mashhad, Iran, c.1930. Al-Sistani is the most important Shiite leader in the country. He is the official religious leader of Iraqi Shiites, and the most respected scholar in the holy city of Najaf, where he controls a powerful faction at the Kawza Seminary. Under the belief that politics and religion should not mix, he has been openly grateful that the United States toppled Saddam Hussein, and believes Iraq should be a democracy, provided there are direct elections, which would favor the Shiite majority.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani: Information from Answers.com (http://www.answers.com/topic/grand-ayatollah-ali-al-sistani)
Though Sistani is no client of Iran it is grossly erroneous to link Iraq/Iran war as a continuous phenomenon. If anything the chances of war are zero because Iraqi Shia and Iranian Shias are brothers in arms. In fact Ahmedinjanabad(?) the clown Prez of Iran got a better welcome in Iraq than some of the top visiting US oficials. So lets drop the Iraq Iran war possibility.

2) Iran is actively pinging the Iraq border "inspite" of the US military being there. This will be debatable but I think Iran is not seeking a direct war with USA(that would be suicide)but it keeps the tensions up that they do have the capacity to irritate. Remember those IEDs that came from Iran and stopped suddenly. Remember Syrias co-op in roundng up Al Qaida on the Iraq border.

3) Persian gulf carries a significant portion of oil and Iran can make it a nuisance enuf where prices of oil rise enough to wreck havoc on the Wesern economies. Thats obvious enuff.

4) Last Hizbullah attack in Israel was significant and the Lebanese faction prevailed over Israel incursion. Nasrallah won. I was getting resumes from Israelis in Haifa. They wanted to leave.

All in all since Ayatollah Khomeni the Ayatollahs have prevailed with Russian help and Chinese, German, Japanese economic participation. The Iraq war against Saddam and war in Afghanistan benefited Iran where it is now well on its way to a homemae nuclear bomb(no missile deliverable). Rumors exist that Iran already has 3 nuclear devices purchased for $2.5 billion. They can be delivered via their Kilo subs (so they too have an opportunity to pull the gloves of in their neighbourhood).

I stand by my argument. The Ayatollahs will win this one; they even have the ex KGB support, note that Rafsanjani marched on the plank "death to Russians".

Summary:
1) Ayatollah have Russian backing bigtime.Opposition has US/UK backing and Israeli backing. Obviously Ayatollahs win this battle.
2) Ayatollahs can wreck Persian gulf shipping, US and French can at best provide some security. Obviously Ayatollahs can win this one with duress.
3) Hizbullah did an oustanding job against Israel. I got resumes from Haifa Israel as the Israelis wanted to leave. Ayatollahs again have power to disrupt lives in Israel. Again Ayatollahs have the edge.
4) The toppling of Saddam and Shia rise in Iran neutralizes a major Iranian enemy. Again Ayatollahs get a plus point here.
5) The nuclear program is now in mountains that nobody can touch.
6) Global economy based in the West is a train wreck waiting to happen and simply put even I wouldn't have the balls as POTUS to risk trouble in the Middle East. Americans do not like high gas prices.

I just do not see how I am wrong? The only way Israel and US can prevail is by pulling all the gloves off. Will they do that? Probably not. It would be inappropriate at this point. Duh rules!!

Also I know most will disagree, but thats the fun of winning big when you are the contarian. LOL.:biggrin:

Officer of Engineers
16 Mar 10,, 04:03
1) Ayatollah have Russian backing bigtime.Opposition has USUK backing and Israeli backing. Obviously Ayatollahs win this battle.Russia is of ZERO help in the Straits of Hormuz.


2) Ayatollahs can wreck Persian gulf shipping, US and French can at best provide some security. Obviously Ayatollahs can win this one with duress.Operation PRAYING MANTIS. After one skirmish, the Iranian Navy went home never to venture forth again. The technological, numeric, and tactical gap between the two has now widened even further. Laughable considering that you think the PLAN, which is vastly far more superior than the Iranians (they supplied Iran with missiles for crying outloud) is nothing but meat against the USN but somehow, Iran can prevailed against the USN.


3) Hizbullah did an oustanding job against Israel.Then, you've read the wrong reports. It was not a case of houw good the Hezbollah did. It was a case of how bad the Israelis did. The Israelis broke all the rules of combined arms operations. Hezbollah read the map right and setup strong points to stall the Israelis but make no mistake, they were losing stong hold after strong hold.


I got resumes from Haifa Israel as the Israelis wanted to leave. Ayatollahs again have power to disrupt lives in Israel.And I've got a man on this board who would hesitate for one second to jump back into his tank back in Israel.


4) The toppling of Saddam and Shia rise in Iran neutralizes a major Iranian enemy.Gee, I didn't know that Saddam was a one man army ... and to think that all those years, the Iraqi Army secretly wanted Iran to rule over them.

Read some history. No one fights that ruthlessly and that savagely without blind hate involved.


5) The nuclear program is now in mountains that nobody can touch.Thermobaric weapons.


6) Global economy based in the West is a train wreck waiting to happen and simply put even I wouldn't have the balls as POTUS to risk trouble in the Middle East. Americans do not like high gas prices.Americans like being hostages even less.


I just do not see how I am wrong?I get that. You don't read.

Oh in case you've missed it, the Military Professional status under our names meant that we used to do this for a living.

eocoolj
16 Mar 10,, 04:41
The reality is EU & US/UK are in a very fragile state (the only outposts of Western civilization that stand today with strong foundations are Australia, Canada, Germany and maybe France). THe question is how long can the West tolerate high oil prices? - say $300/barrel or more. Not very long I suspect. Iran can shutdown the Persian gulf for a couple of months and that would ruin the precarious Western economies. Iran also has great support in Iraq. Thats a lot of oil under Ayatollahs thumb. Their proxies Hizbullah can raise hell in Israel. All in all the Ayatollahs have enuff cards to continue their rule unfettered.

If were a betting man I would wager the West falls before Iran.

1) The US and EU economies, respectively, may not be as strong as they were prior to the Sept. 2008 financial collapse, but they are still exponentially stronger than Asian, African, or South American economies. Obama's stimulus may not have worked, but job loss is slowing and our GDP is growing again. So we are technically just about out of the recession and back on to stable ground. With interest rates so low, it is possible for the U.S. to continue deficit spending to finance both wars and get the economy back on track - people are way too concerned about the deficit (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1969745,00.html).

2) Oil prices are not very high right now. They peaked at approximately $150 p/b in 2008 and came back to Earth soon after. Oil is currently trading in the $70-80 p/b range on NYMEX, which OPEC is pleased with and the West can certainly deal with (prices did dip into the $40-50 p/b range last year). Supply has remained steady, especially with Iraq back on its own two feet, but demand has fallen as a result of the 2008 financial collapse, so I would not expect prices to go anywhere in the immediate future. "Tolerating high prices" is an illusion you have created, not a reality.

3) If Iran ever chose to shut down domestic oil production for any length of time, it would literally collapse. Not only would export receipts (petroleum accounts for 80% of Iranian exports (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html)) fall to zero, but the U.S. would likely stop sending gasoline to Iran. So, it's a double whammy for Iran, they would collapse faster than you can say "Ahmadinejad." Iran is not even in the top 15 oil suppliers for the United States, so prices would climb alot in the West, but not intolerably for an extended period of time for many reasons. Iran is hurting alot because of lower oil prices, not to mention massive internal political strife, so to think that they are some kind of power player right now is laughable.

4) If you are talking about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Hormuz.html), then you need to do some serious research. How would Iran close a 21-mile wide body of water when the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and tons of other Coalition forces are in the immediate area? Remember in 2008 when Iran tried to pull that publicity stunt? They ran away from the U.S. Navy like little schoolgirls. Stop reading Iranian propaganda, the Iranian military has no such capability (we are talking about a country that fought Iraq for a decade to no avail).

5) Saying that Iraqis support Iran is like saying that Argentinians likes the British. There may be some common religion (Shiite Moslem), but you may not be aware that Iraq and Iran fought an extremely bitter war throughout the 1980s.

6) The Ayatollah has demonstrated an utter lack of power this past year. He can't even keep his own country in political order, let alone manipulate the international economy. Have you seen the protests going on in Iran after the rigged election?

7) Hezbollah was pretty well crippled in 2006 when Israel invaded Lebanon; they may be trying to rebuild, but Israel keeps good tabs on them, especially now with Bibi Netanyahu in power.

8) Please don't cite answers.com, that's like citing wikipedia. Get some real sources.

Officer of Engineers
16 Mar 10,, 04:42
Actually I've had it. You are freaking dumb. Most oil going to Europe go through the Suez Canal. About the only oil that would be affected by Iran is Japan bound or China bound. Go somewhere else, I can't stand your stupidity any longer.

Thread closed for the stupidity of the original thought.